Rural diversification and socio-economic transformation in Croatia

Rural diversification in Croatia is well advanced because many rural families have been able to find work in secondary and tertiary activities without the need to migrate to the towns. Many rural settlements have now attained an urban character although there are regional variations, including a contrast between the continental zone with a relatively high level of commitment to agriculture and the coastal areas, with pronounced ‘deagrarisation’ where the ports and tourist resorts are well developed and the natural resource conditions for agriculture are poor. These variations are examined at the municipality level with reference to two key indicators: the share of nonagricultural population and the share of workers in the total active population. Four categories of socio-economic transformation are recognised: more urbanised, urbanised, less urbanised and rural. The main regional differences between the continental and coastal areas are confirmed with the latter showing a relatively high level of socio-economic transformation through the prominence of more highly urbanised municipalities. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Changing poverty distribution in Bolivia: the role of rural–urban migration and urban services

Bolivia is a country with high levels of poverty and inequality among its peoples and regions. For the nation and its urban and rural areas, trends in the social and spatial distribution of poverty (and extreme poverty) are identified from 1976 to 2003 using UBN data with minor support where appropriate from poverty lines. The main survey between 1992 and 2001 uses composite and selected UBN to track detailed poverty change for the country’s nine departments, its ten largest cities and a selection of other smaller urban and rural municipalities. Because of rising background increases in population in the various surveyed administrative units, many instances of relative reductions in poverty are accompanied by rising absolute increases. Marked spatial variations in poverty and development in the country over the last several decades are identified as the main driver for the country’s quickening pace of rural–urban migration. As a result, the paper concludes by assessing two different but closely related views. One investigation tests the notion that because more poor people have been living in Bolivia’s cities than in its rural areas since the mid to late 1990s, rapid rural–urban migration has simply shifted the locus of poverty from the countryside to the cities in a process called, the ‘urbanisation of poverty.’ A second, more challenging, investigation assesses the view that the flow of poor rural people to the better serviced urban areas of Bolivia has actually acted to alleviate national poverty levels.     

Socioeconomic transformation in rural Romania through the eyes of experts: Demographic and social issues

There is no standard model of transformation for post- socialist countries and each country encounters specific problems rooted in the geographical characteristics of the areas concerned. The human resources are of the greatest importance because it really matters how people (especially the decision-makers) perceive system change and continually reformulate their expectations and strategies; so investigations into the views of people caught up in the transformation can provide a deeper understanding of the background to structural change. Working the national, regional level and local levels in Romania, experts were asked to consider the advantages and disadvantages arising out of the transformation, the most important problems and constraints for future rural development and the policies needed. The paper examines the responses on demographic and social issues. It emerges the most detailed responses were supplied by local-level representatives while respondents at the regional level steered a middle course between the need to address local problems and the prime importance of stimulating the Romanian economy so as to generate resources for welfare programmes (with the latter issue the overriding concern of interviewees at national level). There was general agreement on the importance of foreign investment and European integration for economic development, with local actors taking only small steps in line with the existing opportunities. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

What kind of countryside do the public want: community visions from Wales UK?

This paper assesses how far community led rural visions accord with the current thrust of rural planning policy delivery in the UK. Adapting conventional visioning methods, qualitative techniques were used on eight different communities across urban, exurban and rural Wales to elicit views relating to the kind of local countryside(s) that were desired. The results show that the communities’ visions reflect an emerging consensus around local countryside priorities: multifunctionality, integration, wider countryside protection, development based on need, and local distinctiveness according with the thrust of current planning policy at national and local levels. However, there is a clear dichotomy between this and the reality of what communities actually experienced in developments affecting their countryside. Here, universal criticism was encountered over the type, pace and scale of development, the lack of rural specificity and the failure to take account of local community needs and priorities. It is hypothesized that tensions between national and local politics and stakeholder power relations are playing a crucial role in distorting the delivery of town and country planning. It is recommended that rural policy delivery must become more “joined up” and rural proofed at national and local levels concomitant with a change in the operational culture of agencies at the forefront of rural delivery. Essentially, effective engagement of top down approaches synergising with bottom up community led ideas is long overdue.     

Regionalism as resistance: Governance and identity in Western Australia’s Wheatbelt

Extensive rural regions are facing major socio-economic, political and environmental change from the dual effects of agricultural restructuring and environmental degradation. While central governments often rely on regional level policy responses, local actors, such as rural local governments may resist these ‘top-down’ initiatives. This paper examines the oppositional response of 34 rural local governments to state-led regionalisation for economic development and natural resource management in the extensive and sparely populated Wheatbelt region of Western Australia. The analysis explores how state threats of amalgamation; shifting national policy empathies in rural development; and, local preferences for horizontal rather than vertical forms of cooperation are influential in catalysing a brand of defensive regionalism amongst local government actors. Adopting this defensive posture allowed local actors to both buffer state intervention and improve the effectiveness of their own cooperative planning and management activities for sustainable development. These observations are interpreted through concepts of collective identity formation, providing an analytical perspective that is sensitive to the inter-scalar politics in rural governance.     

The importance of mineral and energy inventories

Based on the results of the Conference on Resource Assessment Techniques of IGCP Project 98 in Loen, Norway, 1976, the importance of mineral and energy inventories is demonstrated by their long-term objectives which aim at the solution of problems of quantitative and qualitative mineral and energy reserve and resource assessments, estimates of the exploration potential, supply analysis, future land-use planning, and national mineral policy. Prior to establishing a mineral and energy inventory it is essential to clearly define both the long-term and short-term objectives, because they control the scope of an inventory and determine the approach to and the method of constructing the data base. Only then can questions be answered as to the kind of data required, the advantages of regional-versus commodity-based inventories, the necessity of computer-processable data files, the availability of a user-oriented data base management system, and the usefulness of conducting a pilot project. Examples are given for simple and complex types of mineral and energy inventories. The “Mineral Deposit Inventory” of the Institute for Geosciences and Natural Resources, Hannover, Federal Republic of Germany, serves mainly as an information and reference system, whereas the mineral inventory of “Project Manitoba” of the Geological Survey of Canada forms the base for reserve and resource assessment as well as land-use planning of that province. For developing and industrialized countries alike, mineral and energy inventories are appropriate tools in planning new exploration activities and decisions on future national mineral policy. Used by the Regional Mineral Resources Development Centers of ESCAP and ECA, the United Nations economic commissions in Asia and Africa, these tools could be of great advantage and mutual benefit to the developing countries of those regions. This paper was presented at the International Geological Correlation Program (IGCP) Project 98: “Standards for Computer Applications in Resource Studies” held at Taita Hills, Kenya, November 8–15, 1977.     

Population movement in Post-Colonial Fiji: Review and speculation

May 1987 is a month that will not be forgotten in the South Pacific. The first of two military coups d'etat led by Colonel Sitiveni Rabuka not only transformed the course of post-colonial political development in Fiji, but this event also had profound implications for international relations in the region. Co-incidentally, May 1987 was also the month when detailed results of Fiji's second national population census since Independence in 1970 became available. The 1986 census documents Fiji's population on the eve of a political revolution which has the potential to cause significant economic and social change. The demographic process most likely to be affected in the short-term by the coups is population movement, both within Fiji and to overseas destinations. This: paper examines developments in population movement between 1970 and 1986 with particular reference to an acceleration in levels of migration overseas by Indians and an exodus of Fijians from rural village communities for towns on Viti Levu and Vanua Levu. Trends in internal and international migration are evaluated at a range of spatial scales — national, regional and local. Some speculation on the effect of political and economic changes since May 1987 on these population movements attempts to provide a contemporary perspective on demographic developments over the last 15 years.     

Patterns of population change in Ghana (1984–2000): urbanization and frontier development

The study addresses population dynamics in Ghana on the urban and regional levels between 1984 and 2000. At the urban level, the development trends are analyzed for urban localities (population above 5,000) on the basis of geo-coded census data. Potential driving forces for rapid population growth related to size, location, accessibility and facility counts are examined using bivariate and multivariate analysis. An index of weighted accessibility relative to other urban localities provides significant explanation at the national level, as does initial locality size. At the regional level, population development is analyzed to provide insight into the rural–urban relations. The level of urbanization is steadily increasing but varies considerably between regions. Areas of high population growth are found in some rural areas that have a remote location relative to the large urban centers. This seems to indicate the existence of ‘frontier’ regions, i.e. areas that experience a high degree of in-migration by people aiming to undertake specific farming activities. A high proportion of the population growth in these areas appears to take place in relatively small towns. The paper concludes with a more in-depth discussion of the development characteristics of Ghana’s Western Region. This region has experienced one of the highest regional population growth rates, mainly due to its status as a ‘frontier’ for cocoa production.

Approaches to sustainable forestry in the Piatra Craiului National Park

Declared in 1990, the Piatra Craiului is one of Romania's 15 national parks and biosphere reserves. It has exceptional scenic and biodiversity value but is under threat from unsustainable agricultural, forestry and tourism management. The paper examines these threats in a historical context, regarding both the growth of the town of Braşov and areas of dispersed rural settlement on the mountain edge, and argues that a sustainable future will require negotiation between the park authorities and all stakeholders, including the local communities and private woodland owners who have benefited or will benefit from restitution. The way forward is explored with forest management in a central role. First, the certification of woodlands, along with the establishment of forest user groups and community woodlands, should help to reconcile the conflicting interests in the woodlands and in wood processing in support of sustainability. Second, the overgrazing of the meadows which is degrading the pastures, restricting forest regeneration and conflicting with large carnivore conservation, could be moderated by the growth of ecotourism linked with bears and wolves which would generate a new source of income to compensate farmers for reducing their flocks – given the importance of the biodiversity resources and the socio-economic pressures – and the paper therefore considers how new approaches to forest management might provide a basis for conservation and sustainable development. It will be for the recently-established national park management system – developed with World Bank Global Environment Facility funding – to take these ideas forward in due course. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Climate changing characteristics of Zhangye City in Heihe River basin during 1968–2005

At present, researches on climate change of the Heihe River basin mainly focus on the relationship between basin climate change and regional water resources, regional desertification and dynamic climatic seasons of sandstorm, but less on climate change of oasis region, where there are more intense and frequent human activities. Based on data of precipitation, temperature, strong wind and dust events frequencies obtained from the six meteorological stations of Zhangye region in Heihe River basin, the features of climate change during 1968–2005 were carefully studied. Results show that the regional temperature rise rate exceeded the average level of China. The annual precipitation changed a little, but the precipitation had a slowly increasing trend in spring and winter. Frequencies of strong wind and sandstorm days show obviously descending trends, which had a close correlation with the regional temperature rise and the precipitation increase in spring and winter. Meanwhile, further human economic activities and exploitations to the oasis in the inland valley of arid regions also affected the climate change of this region, which has a sensitive and fragile eco-environment. __________ Translated from Journal of Desert Research, 2007, 27(6): 1048–1054 [译自: 中国沙漠]     

Socio-geographical transition in the rural areas of the Carpathian Euroregion

Cross-border cooperation is starting to overcome the isolation of frontier regions where interaction under the socialist system was minimal. Change has been particularly apparent in areas where trans-frontier organisations on the ‘Euroregion’ model have emerged. The Carpathian Euroregion is the first exclusively East European example of this approach and it has already made a positive impact in overcoming backwardness in an area where four East European countries were in contact with the Former Soviet Union. The paper outlines the challenge facing the Euroregion – and the national and local governments in the five countries concerned – in providing non-agricultural employment for a large rural population augmented by return-migration from the towns since 1989. Many small farming businesses have been started as a survival strategy but they cannot be economically viable in a market situation. Although most people are satisified with their rural lifestyle, the inevitability of radical consolidation in a future EU context could be politically destabilising if more jobs are not generated in manufacturing and in an expanding tertiary sector. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

The changing distribution of incomes in Dutch cities: myth and reality

Segregation is a central concept in the debate on urban issues, both in scientific literature and in society in general. The process of globalisation is particularly expected to increase polarisation and segregation in cities, resulting in the emergence of ‘ghettos’ or – as they are called in the Netherlands – ‘income neighbourhoods’. This paper tries to judge the situation in Dutch cities by studying changes over time; by looking at segregation within cities as well as between cities and the wider metropolitan area; and by comparing socio-economic differences with socio-cultural and socio-demographic characteristics. The analysis shows that the empirical facts are quite different from the ongoing debate. It establishes that socio-economic segregation is more moderate than segregation with respect to the other two dimensions. Contrary to suggestions from the vernacular debate, segregation within cities is scarcely increasing, but between cities and the surrounding area it is rising with respect to all three dimensions. This revised version was published online in August 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Evidence of women’s empowerment in India: a study of socio-spatial disparities

Various national and international communities have addressed women’s issues and taken various efforts to empower them so as to enhance their social and health status and involve them in developmental activities. The Indian DHS survey (National Family Health Survey, 1998–1999) provides an opportunity to study women’s empowerment in India. The survey collected information on several dimensions of women’s empowerment from 90,303 ever-married women (ages 15–49), from all the states of India. Utilizing these data sets, four indices – household autonomy index, mobility index, attitude towards gender index and attitude towards domestic violence index – are constructed to measure the different dimensions of empowerment. Using these indices, the spatial and socio-economic and cultural disparities that exist within India are analyzed. Finally, an attempt is made to identify some important determinants for women’s empowerment using multiple logistic regression analysis. The results show that at the national level, 43% of the women have high household autonomy; 23% of the women have high freedom to move outside their home; 40% of the women have no gender preference attitude; and only 43% of the women defy domestic violence. But there are significant divergences in these indices of women’s empowerment across the different states and socio-economic and cultural settings within India. Women’s educational levels emerged as an important predictor for all the four dimensions of women’s empowerment. Additionally, media exposure and age have emerged as the important predictors for some dimensions of woman’s empowerment. This paper was presented by Prof. Kamla Gupta at the International Geographical Union Conference (IGU), held in Canada, 2002.     

National-scale Assessment of Current and Future Flood Risk in England and Wales

In recent years, through the availability of remotely sensed data and other national datasets, it has become possible to conduct national-scale flood risk assessment in England and Wales. The results of this type of risk analysis can be used to inform policy-making and prioritisation of resources for flood management. It can form the starting point for more detailed strategic and local-scale flood risk assessments. The national-scale risk assessment methodology outlined in this paper makes use of information on the location, standard of protection and condition of flood defences in England and Wales, together with datasets of floodplain extent, topography, occupancy and asset values. The flood risk assessment was applied to all of England and Wales in 2002 at which point the expected annual damage from flooding was estimated to be approximately £1 billion. This figure is comparable with records of recent flood damage. The methodology has subsequently been applied to examine the effects of climate and socio-economic change 50 and 80 years in the future. The analysis predicts increasing flood risk unless current flood management policies, practices and investment levels are changed – up to 20-fold increase in real terms economic risk by the 2080s in the scenario with highest economic growth. The increase is attributable primarily to a combination of climate change (in particular sea level rise and increasing precipitation in parts of the UK) and increasing economic vulnerability.     

The role of choke points in the ocean context

Choke points are narrow international waterways where three characteristics are present. The waterway should be narrow and capable of being closed off to both commercial and military snipping. There should be no readily available maritime route to utilize in the event of closure. Finally, the choke point should be of considerable significance to at least several States. This article identifies seven “primary” choke points which seem to satisfy these criteria. These are Gibraltar, Bab el Mandeb, Hormuz, the Danish and Turkish Straits, and the Suez and Panama Canals. It also identifies eleven “secondary” choke points, where at least one of the reouired characteristics is missing. The eleven include Dover, Bering and Magellan Straits, as well as Malacca-Singapore and a number of others in the Western Pacific. Turning to a consideration of the status of choke points in a Post-Cold War era, the article notes four basic assumptions: (1) the intense military rivalry between the United States and the Soviet Union will be reduced in coming years; (2) for many countries marine-related environmental concerns may be increasing considerably; (3) as the Cold War recedes, regional contests and confrontations will grow more intense; and (4) the overall densities of water-borne traffic will undergo change as the relative economic growth of regional centers changes. The article then considers the potential impact of these trends on the future role of choke points.     

The binational reality of border-crossing cities

In a time of changing border functions city pairs on either side of national state borders have increasingly become objects of attention, because of border crossing contacts and co-operation at the local level. This paper focuses on conceptual aspects of such city pairs, owing their existence to either duplication of an already existing city or to partitioning of a once united city. In search of a proper name that expresses the relations between such partner cities without metaphorical exaggeration, the current vocabulary is reviewed. Especially the notion of the ‘binational city’ receives critical attention. A discussion of selected cases of paired cities in Europe and North-America has been included to underline the importance of local conditions and historical backgrounds with regard to the mutual relations and conditions of co-operation. In conclusion the author states that for the time being ‘border–crossing’ cities seems to be the best name for city pairs of different national backgrounds, the emergence of true ‘binational cities’ being a rather exceptional outcome in a far future. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

A methodology for dealing with regional change in integrated water resources management

The paper presents a methodology on how to consistently deal with the future change and management options in integrated water resources management (IWRM). It is based on a conceptual framework with a five step procedure for the formulation and analysis of a so-called ‘parameterised regional futures’. Developing and testing the approach for IWRM is realised for the upper part of the Western Bug River catchment (Ukraine). Special attention is paid to scenarios of change covering climate and land use. The future regional climate is downscaled with the model CCLM. Land cover is projected after retrospective change detection and the derivation of prospective algorithms. Parameters of the interrelations between land use and the water cycle are tackled through using the concept of the model PWF-LU. The methodology is currently being tested to analyse the impacts of mid-term regional change and management options on the water cycle of the catchment.     

Inequality and development in rural West Africa

Inequality seems to be a feature of all societies, but some are probably more equal than others. It is in Third World countries however where inequalities between particular areas, groups and individuals are most marked. The paper first traces the growing interest in both the study of inequality and the rural household as a focus of analysis. Some of the problems of measuring inequality are then considered and various indicators of inequality are examined with reference to empirical evidence from rural W Africa. The paper concludes that recent development strategies have often directly or indirectly led to greater rural inequality and makes suggestions as to how future projects might achieve greater impact in reducing the gap between rich and poor. Paper presented at Commonwealth Geographical Bureau, Workshop on Spatial Inequalities in the Developing World, Kano, Nigeria 16–20 September 1985     

The distribution and growth of urban settlements in Saudi Arabia

This paper examines the distribution characteristics of urban settlements in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia through major dimensions such as settlement regularly, degree of primacy and polarisation at the national and geographic regional levels. The paper points out that the settlement pattern at the national level has transformed from a primate distribution during the pre-plan period (< 1970) to an intermediary distribution during the period of development planning (1970 >). At the geographical regional level the settlement distribution, however, has shown diverse pattern. While the regional settlement distribution of Western and Eastern Region have shown trends of increasing polarisation, settlements in the Northern and Southern Regions are more log-normal in character. This is explained by the increasing growth of small and intermediary towns in the Northern and Southern Regions. The paper concludes that the national trend of decreasing urban primacy, induced by the decentralised national development strategies, is less pronounced due to the absence of a balanced regional investment policy. Since the government expenditure and settlement population growth rates are not related, slow growing primate cities continue to receive a larger share of public expenditure, enabling them to retain their primacy. This calls for a balanced regional investment policy to fully realise the national strategy of regional balance and multi-polar settlement pattern.     

A rural development strategy for the Apuseni Mountains, Romania

The Apuseni Mountains, part of the Western Carpathians, are distinctive in cultural terms because of the highly dispersed settlement patterns that have developed on the high erosion surfaces where the Moti people cleared the forests to allow for an expansion of family farming in the eighteenth and nineteenth centuries. These small ‘crang’ settlements remain, but the population is declining in the face of limited employment opportunities and poor services. The question arises as to the most appropriate rural development strategy for the region, following the communist period which encouraged centralisation through the provision of housing and industry in key villages and new towns. The emphasis on private farming and the expansion of tourism could protect the inherited cultural landscape but money must be found to improve rural services. There is also a strong conservation movement which supports the establishment of a national park, but this could constrain development through controls on grazing and woodcutting. Hence the dialogue continues to find the best compromise and the concept of a ‘natural park’ is being discussed with such a reconciliation in mind. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.