Deflecting NEOs in Route of Collision with the Earth

We consider a small sample of known near Earth objects (NEOs), both asteroids and comets, with low minimum orbital intersection distance (MOID). Through a simple numerical procedure we generate slightly different orbits from this sample in such a way that these bodies will collide with the Earth at a specific epoch. Then we study the required change in orbital velocity (along track Δv) in order to deflect these NEOs at different epochs before the impact event. The orbital evolution of these NEOs is performed through a full N-body numerical integrator. A comparison with analytical estimates is also performed in selected cases. Interesting features in the Δv/time before impact plots are found; as a prominent result, we find that close approaches to the Earth before the epoch of the impact can make the overall deflection easier.     

On the Trajectories of Asteroid Encounters with the Earth for 2015 RN35 and Apophis

A great number of probable encounters of asteroid 2015 RN35 with the Earth have been found; many of them were unknown earlier. The main characteristics and properties of the corresponding trajectories have been obtained. Probable impacts of the asteroid Apophis with the Earth are also discussed. The results suggest that the multitudes of potential impacts of hazardous asteroids with the Earth can be and must be analyzed in more detail. Such an analysis is required to plan and implement the measures on preventing the asteroid impact hazard.     

Detection of Asteroid Impact Orbits Using Conditional Minimization of the Distance to the Earth

Solar System Research - A method has been developed for detecting impact orbits of asteroids in the confidence ellipsoid of the initial parameters of motion. The method consists in conditionally...     

Motion of a Meteoroid Released from an Asteroid

Evidence of asteroid surface features as regolith grains and larger boulders implies resurfacing possibility due to external forces such as gravitational tidal force during close planet encounters. Motion of a meteoroid released from an asteroid in the gravitational fields of the asteroid and the Earth is modeled. We are interested mainly in a distance between the meteoroid and the asteroid as a function of the time. Applications to Itokawa and some close approaching NEAs are presented.     

On the Stochasticity of the Asteroid Belt

The study of the stochasticity of the asteroid belt requires the analysis of a large number of orbits. We detect the dynamical character of a set of 5 400 asteroids using the Fast Lyapunov Indicator, a method of analysis closely related to the computation of the Lyapunov Characteristic Exponents, but cheaper in computational time. For both regular and chaotic orbits we try to associate the motion to the underlying resonances network. For it we consider different methods of classification of rational numbers proposed by number theory, and we choose the one which seems to be strictly related to the dynamical behaviour of a system. This revised version was published online in July 2006 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

On the Possibility of Forecasting the Sun's Activity Using Radiocarbon Solar Proxy

Group sunspot number (GSN) values, averaged over decades, were reconstructed for a time interval 8505 BC–AD 1945 using data on the concentration of radiocarbon in tree rings. The prediction of an average level of solar activity was made for the future four decades by means of a nonlinear forecasting method. It was shown that the average activity of the Sun during 2005–2045 would be lower than at present. The given result is compared to the long-term forecasts by other authors. The importance of a paleoastrophysical approach for obtaining a long-term solar prognosis and for revealing the basic characteristics of solar activity change was confirmed.     

Determination of Large Asteroid Masses by the Dynamical Method

Masses of 19 asteroids have been determined from the analysis of their gravitational effect on the motion of perturbed bodies. The following asteroids were selected as perturbed bodies: (1) those which had single close encounters with the perturbing asteroid; (2) those whose mean motion was in a 1 : 1 commensurability with that of the perturber and which had close or moderate recurrent encounters with the perturber. The perturber mass was determined from observations of several tens of perturbed asteroids that were selected from these two groups. The selection criterion was the error of the mass determined from observations of only one asteroid. Positional observations of the asteroids on the interval 1900–2002 were used. The masses were determined with errors by an order-half an order of magnitude smaller than the masses found. The results are compared with those of other authors.     

On the Family of the Binary Asteroid 423 Diotima

We identified the family of the binary asteroid 423 Diotima consisting of 411 members in the phase space of orbital elements—semimajor axes a (or mean motions n), eccentricities e, and inclinations i—by using an electronic version of the ephemerides of minor planets EMP-2003 containing osculating orbital elements for 34992 asteroids of the main belt. The 9/4 resonance with Jupiter clearly separates the family of 423 Diotima from the family of Eos, which, according to EMP for 2003, contains 1204 asteroids.     

From Magnitudes to Diameters: The Albedo Distribution of Near Earth Objects and the Earth Collision Hazard

A recently published model of the Near Earth Object (NEO) orbital-magnitude distribution (Bottke et al., 2002, Icarus156, 399-433.) relies on five intermediate sources for the NEO population: the ν₆ resonance, the 3:1 resonance, the outer portion of the main belt (i.e., 2.8-3.5 AU), the Mars-crossing population adjacent to the main belt, and the Jupiter family comet population. The model establishes the relative contribution of these sources to the NEO population. By computing the albedo distribution of the bodies in and/or near each of the five sources, we can deduce the albedo distribution of the NEO population as a function of semimajor axis, eccentricity, and inclination. A problem with this strategy, however, is that we do not know a priori the albedo distribution of main belt asteroids over the same size range as observed NEOs (diameter D<10 km). To overcome this problem, we determined the albedo distribution of large asteroids in and/or near each NEO source region and used these results to deduce the albedo distribution of smaller asteroids in the same regions. This method requires that we make some assumptions about the absolute magnitude distributions of both asteroid families and background asteroids. Our solution was to extrapolate the observed absolute magnitude distributions of the families up to some threshold value H_thr, beyond which we assumed that the families' absolute magnitude distributions were background-like.We found that H_thr=14.5 provides the best match to the color vs heliocentric distance distribution observed by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. With this value of H_thr our model predicts that the debiased ratio between dark and bright (albedo smaller or larger than 0.089) objects in any absolute-magnitude-limited sample of the NEO population is 0.25±0.02. Once the observational biases are properly taken into account, this agrees very well with the observed C/S ratio (0.165 for H<20). The dark/bright ratio of NEOs increases to 0.87±0.05 if a size-limited sample is considered. We estimate that the total number of NEOs larger than a kilometer is 855±110, which, compared to the total number of NEOs with H<18 (963±120), shows that the usually assumed conversion H=18?D=1 km slightly overestimates the number of kilometer-size objects.Combining our orbital distribution model with the new albedo distribution model, and assuming that the density of bright and dark bodies is 2.7 and 1.3 g/cm³, respectively, we estimate that the Earth should undergo a 1000 megaton collision every 63,000±8000 years. On average, the bodies capable of producing 1000 megaton of impact energy are those with H<20.6. The NEOs discovered so far carry only 18±2% of this collision probability.     

On the Polarization Opposition Effect of E-Type Asteroid 64 Angelina

Polarimetric observations of the high-albedo asteroid 64 Angelina were done for the purpose of searching for a polarization opposition effect at phase angles of less than 2.4°. We have found a second inversion angle of about 1.5° and positive polarization of 0.5% at a phase angle of 0.5°. For comparison the polarimetric observations of Comet P/Ashbrook–Jackson are given. Different theoretical approaches to the explanation of this phenomenon are discussed.     

On the visibility of bright Venusian fireballs from Earth

The possibility of observing Venusian fireballs from Earth is examined. We estimate the steady-state flux of large, fireball-producing meteoroids at the orbit of Venus, and find that the prospects for observing such events from Earth with small, amateur-sized telescopes are not unreasonable.     

Earth impact probability of the Asteroid (25143) Itokawa to be sampled by the spacecraft Hayabusa

The Japanese spacecraft Hayabusa is planed to reach the Asteroid Itokawa in September 2005, and to bring back some samples of its surface to Earth in 2007. We have studied the future possible evolution of this asteroid by integrating numerically over 100 Myr a set of 39 initially indistinguishable orbits (clones), obtained either by small variations of the nominal initial conditions, or by using different computers (introducing different round-off errors). The results indicate that an Earth impact of this 500-m-size asteroid is likely within a million years, which is only a factor of four larger than the average impact frequency of asteroids of this size. The mission Hayabusa may thus sample a good candidate for being among the next 500-m-size Earth impactors.     

NEAR Magnetic Field Observations at 433 Eros: First Measurements from the Surface of an Asteroid

The magnetometer investigation aboard the NEAR-Shoemaker spacecraft has obtained extensive magnetic field observations throughout the 433 Eros environment, from distances in excess of 100,000 km to those conducted after landing on 12 February 2001. We report the apparent absence of global scale magnetization at this asteroid (H<0.005 A·m⁻¹; natural remanent magnetization per kilogram <1.9×10⁻⁶ A·m² ·kg⁻¹), orders of magnitude less than the intense magnetization attributed to S-class asteroids Gaspra and Braille. The extremely low magnetization state of 433 Eros places this object significantly below the levels generally associated with LL chondrites and undifferentiated primitive bodies, challenging our current understanding of the meteorite-asteroid connection.     

On Relativistic Equations of Motion of an Earth Satellite

For numerical integration of the geocentric equations of motion of Earth satellites in the general relativity framework one may choose now between rather simple equations involving in their relativistic dynamical part only the Earth-induced terms and very complicated equations taking into account the relativistic third-body action. However, it is possible quite easily to take into account the relativistic indirect third-body perturbations and to neglect much lesser direct third-body perturbations. Such approach is based on the use of the Newtonian third-body perturbations in geocentric variables with expressing them in the relativistic manner in terms of the barycentric arguments. Together with it, to extend the known results for the spheroid model of the Earth, the Earth-induced terms are treated in great detail by including the non-spin part of the Earth vector-potential and the Earth triaxial non-sphericity.This revised version was published online in October 2005 with corrections to the Cover Date.     

Mass and density of Asteroid 121 Hermione from an analysis of its companion orbit

We report on Adaptive Optics observations of the satellite of Asteroid 121 Hermione with the ESO-Paranal UT4 VLT and the Keck AO telescopes. The binary system, belonging to the Cybele family, was observed during two observing campaigns in January 2003 and January 2004 aiming to confirm its trajectory and accurately determine its orbital elements. A precessing Keplerian model was used to describe the motion of S/2002 (121) 1. We find that the satellite of Hermione revolves at a=768±11 km from the primary in P=2.582±0.002 days with a roughly circular and prograde orbit (e=0.001±0.001, i=3±2° w.r.t. equator primary). These extensive astrometric measurements enable us to determine the mass of Hermione to be 0.54±0.03×¹⁰¹⁹ kg and its pole solution (λ₀=1.5°±2.00, β₀=10°±2.0 in ecliptic J2000). Additional Keck AO observations taken close to the asteroid opposition in December 2003 give us direct insight into the structure of the primary which presents a bilobated shape. Since the angular resolution is limited to the theoretical angular resolution of the telescope (43 mas corresponding to a spatial resolution of 80 km), two shape models (called snowman and peanut) are proposed based on the images which were deconvolved with MISTRAL deconvolution process. Assuming a purely synchronous orbit and knowing the mass of the primary, the peanut shape composed of two separated components is quite unlikely. Additionally the J₂ calculated from the analysis of the secondary orbit is not in agreement with the peanut model, but close to the snowman shape. The bulk density of the primary as derived from the observed size of the snowman shape is estimated to ρ∼1.8±0.2 g/cm³ implying a porosity ∼14% for this C-type asteroid, corresponding to a fractured asteroid. Considering the IRAS diameter, the density is lower (ρ=1.1±0.3 g/cm³) leading to a high porosity (p=30-60%) with a nominal value of p=48%, which indicates a completely loose rubble-pile structure for the primary. Further work is necessary to better constrain the size, shape, and then internal structure of Hermione's primary.     

On the possibility of microbiota transfer from Venus to Earth

The possibility of the clouds of Venus providing habitats for extremophilic microorganisms has been discussed for several decades. We show here that the action of the solar wind leads to erosion of parts of the atmosphere laden with aerosols and putative microorganisms, forming a comet-like tail in the antisolar direction. During inferior conjunctions that coincide with transits of the planet Venus this comet-like tail intersects the Earth’s magnetopause and injects aerosol particles. Data from ESA’s Venus Express spacecraft and from SOHO are used to discuss the ingress of bacteria from Venus into the Earth’s atmosphere, which we estimate as ～10¹¹–10¹³ cells for each transit event.     

On the Possibility of Directional Analysis for Geo-neutrinos

The possibility of terrestrial antineutrino directionality studies is considered for future unloaded liquid scintillator detectors. Monte-Carlo simulations suggest that the measurable displacement between prompt and delayed antineutrino signals makes such studies possible. However, it is estimated that on the order of 1000 terrestrial antineutrino events are required to test the simplest models, demanding detectors of 100 kt size to collect sufficient data in a reasonable period of time.     

On the Possibility of Lightning in the Protosolar Nebula

Chondrules constitute a significant fraction of primitive meteorites. Their thermal history includes rapid melting followed by cooling on timescales of minutes to hours. The mechanism underlying such extreme, short-lived thermal excursions away from the prevailing, much milder nebular equilibrium conditions has eluded understanding for many decades. Among the prime candidate mechanisms long thought to provide a possible explanation of chondrule formation is lightning—large-scale electrostatic discharges—in the protoplanetary nebula.In this paper, we explore the possible occurrence of such electrostatic discharges in the protoplanetary nebula powered by precipitation or other processes analogous to that believed to cause lightning on Earth and other planets. Our analysis incorporates charge separation in collisions of water-ice or other solid particles, and includes a self-consistent nebular electrical conductivity determined by a balance between production of free electrons and ions and loss to grain surfaces. We find that development of a large-scale electric field strong enough to produce discharges does not occur under conditions characteristic of protostellar nebulae. This is mainly a result of the fact that the high electrical conductivity of the environment and the relatively low density of solid particles combine to yield a situation in which the large scale electric fields, as well as the electric charges segregated on the particles are short circuited by the highly mobile electrons and ions. We also consider the possibility of lightning in altered nebula environments with higher than canonical dust density, such as a dust subdisk.     

On the Possibility of a Finite Model Describing the Universe

In his book “The expanding universe” EDDINGTON (1933) suggested the idea of an astronomical world model containing a finite number of material particles. Starting from this idea the author has speculated about the possibility to create a cosmological model where in addition also the number of geometrical points and time-instants is finite (JÄRNEFELT 1929, 1949, 1951, 1954a, 1954b, 1957, 1964, 1974, JÄRNEFELT and KUSTAANHEIMO 1952, JÄRNEFELT and QVIST 1955). The ultimate goal would be a world model based essentially upon GALOIS fields. In order to explore such a possibility the most simple actually existing physical system, the structure describing a non-relativistic free particle in an one-dimensional Euclidean space, is treated here. A discrete representation of this system is outlined and then a GALOIS -finitization of this platform is discussed. The author suggests that the method presented here for a very special case, could be generalizable and finally extended to a cosmological model.