南黄海6.1级地震前倾斜潮汐因子变化研究

研究了1996年11月9日南黄海6．1级地震前倾斜潮汐因子的变化特点，并与1988年11月6日澜沧7．6级地震前的倾斜潮汐因子异常形态作了对比。研究结果显示：南黄海6．1级地震前存在着潮汐因子异常，但异常形态与澜沧7．6级地震前的潮汐因子异常有所差别。     

柯坪6.5级地震的形变前兆异常

本文分析总结了1991年2月25日新疆柯坪6.5级强震前出现的形变前兆异常及其表现形式。     

北天山西段中强地震前地倾斜异常的演化分析

研究了北天山西段3次5级地震前地倾斜异常的特征,得出:在时间上呈较明显的阶段性,空间上存在 由西向东迁移(向震中迁移)的过程。并用震源机制解的结果对地倾斜的异常特征作了较好的解释。北天山85°经 线东西两侧震源机制解差异明显,表明这一地区受力环境较为复杂。     

张北-尚义6.2级地震(1998-01-10)前倾斜与地电阻率前兆异常

１　前言１９９８年１月１０日张北－尚义Ｍｓ６．２级地震（λＥ１１４．３°,φＮ４１．１°）,是继１９８９年大同－阳高Ｍｓ６．１地震后,发生在华北北部地区的又一次６级以上强震。距离震中区１１０ｋｍ的内蒙古自治区宝昌地震台的ＳＱ－７０水平摆倾斜仪和地电阻率在震前均观测到明显的前兆异常。尽管在此次张北－尚义地震前,根据某些测项的异常变化,作出了一定的预报,但从整体来讲,并未作出准确的短临预报。因此,对宝昌地震台（λＥ１１４°１５′,φＮ４１°５６′）的主要前兆测项,即ＳＱ－７０地倾斜和地电阻率在张北地…     

关于临震异常特征的识别分析与研究——以汶川地震为例

运用频谱分析法处理四川境内多台地震仪观测资料,分析2008 年汶川大地震震前频谱特征。结果表明,在震前3~4 d出现较为明显的异常扰动现象,异常信号优势频率范围为0.18~0.25 Hz和0.10~0.18 Hz,其中前者主要受西太平洋台风影响,异常始于05-09,并于05-11强度达到最大,之后开始衰减;而后者异常从05-10开始逐步增强,震前10 h急剧增大,直至地震发生。四川境内所有台站分析结果都体现出0.10~0.18 Hz频段信号的震前急剧增加,可能与地震孕育有关。     

景泰地震前后兰州台的中期形变异常

给出了兰州台浮子水管倾斜仪和石英伸缩仪１９８７～１９９３年间Ｍ２波潮汐因子的年度调和分析结果，然后对各分量月均值进行了残差分析，并绘出去除长期项后的倾斜矢量图，据此探讨了景泰地震的中期前兆异常和震后效应特征。     

汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜特征迁移分析

对汶川8.0级地震前后陕西地区地倾斜观测资料的分析发现,汶川地震前陕西地区地倾斜存在沿龙门山断裂带方向由东北向西南震中迁移,震后地倾斜反向迁移,迁移平均速度为3～4 km/天。进一步分析认为,震前陕西地区地倾斜向震源迁移可能对汶川8.0级地震起到了触发作用,而震后地倾斜向远场迁移有可能是诱发陕甘川交界的中强余震的主因。     

汶川台站地倾斜变化特征提取与分析

通过多项式内插、趋势项拟合、快速傅里叶变换以及稳健最小二乘估计,计算观测值对应数学模型的相关参数,利用求解出的数学模型分析地倾斜值的趋势性、周期性以及异常残差。分析认为,地倾斜值呈现趋势性变化的主要原因是内部应力的积累和释放,周期性变化的主要来源是周期性引力和外界的环境条件;连续的倾斜残差异常值出现后,有可能发生地震,且异常值持续时间愈长,地震发生的几率愈高;随着连续异常值的增大,地震的震级会相应提高。     

甘肃夏河县5.7级地震前甘肃定点形变观测异常分析

对2019-10-28甘肃省夏河县5.7级地震附近300 km以内的甘肃省形变观测资料进行初步分析,发现在地震前,甘肃省定点形变观测资料有5个测项出现短临异常和19个测项出现趋势异常。     

Distribution of debris flows in Glacier National Park,Montana, U.S.A.

The spectacular scenery of Glacier National Park is the result of glacial erosion as well as post-glacial mass wasting processes. Debris flow magnitude and frequency have been established through extensive fieldwork across seven separate drainage basins in the eastern portion of the park. This paper summarizes the investigation of the hypotheses that debris flow distribution in the Glacier National Park, east of the Continental Divide is （a） not random; and Co） concentrated adjacent to the Continental Divide. The location of 2317 debris flows were identified and mapped from sixty-three 1-m resolution Digital Orthophoto Quarter Quadrangles and their spatial distribution was then analyzed using ArcView Spatial Analyst GIS software. The GIS analysis showed that the debris flows are not randomly distributed nor are they concentrated directly adjacent to the Divide. While the Continental Divide provides orographic enhancement of precipitation directly adjacent to the Divide, the debris flows are not concentrated there due to a lack of available weathered regolith. The most recent Little Ice Age glaciation removed the debris directly adjacent to the Divide, and without an adequate debris supply, these steep slopes experience few debris flows. Both abundant water and an adequate debris supply are necessary to initiate slope failure, resulting in a clustering of debris flows at the break in slope where valley walls contact talus slopes. A variety of summer storm and antecedent moisture conditions initiate slope failures in the Glacier National Park, with no distinct meteorological threshold. With over two million visitorsevery year, and millions of dollars of park infrastructure at risk, identifying the hazard of debris flows is essential to future park management plans.     

Characterization and spatial analysis of coseismic landslides triggered by the Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake in the Xianshuihe fault zone,Southwest China

On September 5, 2022, a magnitude Ms 6.8 earthquake occurred along the Moxi fault in the southern part of the Xianshuihe fault zone located in the southeastern margin of the Tibetan Plateau,resulting in severe damage and substantial economic loss. In this study, we established a coseismic landslide database triggered by Luding Ms 6.8 earthquake, which includes 4794 landslides with a total area of 46.79 km². The coseismic landslides primarily consisted of medium and small-sized landsli...     

Application of logistic regression model for hazard assessment of landslides caused by the 2012 Yiliang Ms 5.7 earthquake in Yunnan Province,China

Accurate assessment of seismic landslides hazard is a prerequisite and foundation for postdisaster relief of earthquakes. An Ms 5.7 earthquake occurring on September 7, 2012, in Yiliang County,Yunnan Province, China, triggered hundreds of landslides. To explore the characteristics of coseismic landslides caused by this moderate-strong earthquake and their significance in predicting seismic landslides regionally, this study uses an artificial visual interpretation method based on a planet image w...     

ANALYSES OF RECENT GEOMORPHIC EVOLUTION OF GARGATHY INLET, EASTERN SHORE OF VIRGINIA, U. S. A.

Uargathy Inlet is a small natural tidal inlet in the northern region ol the Virginia Darner island chain. It is 100 m wide with a throat cross-sectional area of 384m2 and an average tidal prism of 6.47 x 106 m3. The inside drainage system is 7.8 km long and 2.2km wide. The main channels comprise 5.8% of the area, shallow lagoons 19.8%, and Spartina marshes 74.4% in 1970. Over the period 1851 - 1989 the inlet narrowed and migrated northward while maintaining a weakening downdrift offset. The nearby barrier island coastline's rapid retreat (average rate 4.78m /a, 138 years retreat 660 m) was accompanied by back barrier channel and lagoon filling and a decrease in intertidal water volume which was probably the main reason for the entrance narrowing. The northward migration of the inlet was related to the dredging of the Inside Passage (before 1949) and the breaching of southern Metompkin Island (since 1957) connected with the inlet system. This altered the interior tidal circulation and likely shifted nort     

2020年唐山古冶5.1级地震前流体固体潮参数时空变化研究

以2020-07-12唐山古冶5.1级地震为例,探讨流体固体潮参数的时空分布特征与孕震的关系.收集2017-01～2020-07唐山古冶周边16 口井水位整点值资料,通过Baytap-G程序计算分析M2波与O1波潮汐参数,研究M2波潮汐因子随时间变化的趋势及空间分布情况.结果表明:1)唐山古冶地震前,震中附近井水位潮汐...     

Climate projections of spatial variations in coastal storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast

Using statistically downscaled atmospheric forcing, we performed a numerical investigation to evaluate future climate's impact on storm surges along the Gulf of Mexico and U.S. east coast. The focus is on the impact of climatic changes in wind pattern and surface pressure while neglecting sea level rise and other factors. We adapted the regional ocean model system(ROMS) to the study region with a mesh grid size of 7–10 km in horizontal and 18 vertical layers. The model was validated by a hindcast of the coastal sea levels in the winter of 2008. Model's robustness was confirmed by the good agreement between model-simulated and observed sea levels at 37 tidal gages. Two 10-year forecasts, one for the IPCC Pre-Industry(PI) and the other for the A1 FI scenario, were conducted. The differences in model-simulated surge heights under the two climate scenarios were analyzed. We identified three types of responses in extreme surge heights to future climate: a clear decrease in Middle Atlantic Bight, an increase in the western Gulf of Mexico, and non-significant response for the remaining area. Such spatial pattern is also consistent with previous projections of sea surface winds and ocean wave heights.     

基于2014年康定6.3级地震震后形变分析区域介质特征

以2014年康定6.3级地震震后InSAR形变资料为约束,采用三层粘弹性地震周期模型及遗传算法反演鲜水河断裂南东段的康定地震震区深部介质粘弹性层厚度及粘滞系数。最优拟合结果表明：1）该区域下地壳粘弹性层厚度为5 km,粘滞系数为9.9×10¹⁷ Pa·s,且断层两侧下地壳流变存在显著的横向不均一性。2）将断层两侧分别反演,显示断层南西盘下地壳粘滞系数（8.7×10¹⁷ Pa·s）略小于断层北东盘下地壳粘滞系数（1.2×10¹⁸ Pa·s）。     

Statistical downscaling of IPCC sea surface wind and wind energy predictions for U.S. east coastal ocean,Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

A multivariate statistical downscaling method is developed to produce regional, high-resolution, coastal surface wind fields based on the IPCC global model predictions for the U.S. east coastal ocean, the Gulf of Mexico(GOM), and the Caribbean Sea. The statistical relationship is built upon linear regressions between the empirical orthogonal function(EOF) spaces of a cross- calibrated, multi-platform, multi-instrument ocean surface wind velocity dataset(predictand) and the global NCEP wind reanalysis(predictor) over a 10 year period from 2000 to 2009. The statistical relationship is validated before applications and its effectiveness is confirmed by the good agreement between downscaled wind fields based on the NCEP reanalysis and in-situ surface wind measured at 16 National Data Buoy Center(NDBC) buoys in the U.S. east coastal ocean and the GOM during 1992–1999. The predictand-predictor relationship is applied to IPCC GFDL model output(2.0?×2.5?) of downscaled coastal wind at 0.25?×0.25? resolution. The temporal and spatial variability of future predicted wind speeds and wind energy potential over the study region are further quantified. It is shown that wind speed and power would significantly be reduced in the high CO_2 climate scenario offshore of the mid-Atlantic and northeast U.S., with the speed falling to one quarter of its original value.     

THE SEQUENCE OF PALEOENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SINCE ABOUT 4KA B.P., RECORDED BY NIYA SECTION IN SOUTHERN MARGIN OF TARIM BASIN

1 INTRODUCTIONOne of the 7 key plans of IGBP (International Geo-Biosphere Project) is the PAGES (Past Global Changes), of which the relation of mutual influence of mankind and natural environmental changes during historic period has attracted great attentions over the world (CHEN,1992; Committee of National Natural Science Foundation of China, 1995). Due to the atrocious natural conditions, study of this issues are much more backward in southern Xinjiang. So to investigate and…