Linkages between soybean and neotropical deforestation: Coupling and transient decoupling dynamics in a multi-decadal analysis

Soybean expansion, driven by growing global meat demand, has accompanied neotropical deforestation in past decades. A recent decoupling between soybean production and deforestation in Brazil is taken as evidence of efficient deforestation regulation. Here, we assessed the relationships between soybean economy, livestock production and deforestation from 1972 to 2011 in Northern Argentina Dry Chaco. We used Panel Analysis to evaluate the relationship between soybean cultivated and deforested area in different periods and we used high resolution time series analysis of a deforestation hotspot, to explore links between soybean economy, cattle ranching and deforestation. In northern Argentina, 2.7 millions ha were deforested from 1972 to 2011, 56% of which occurred after 2002. The results of the Panel analysis indicate a strong link between soybean expansion and deforestation but with variation among periods mediated by the links between soybean and livestock productions. Deforestation was strongly coupled with soybean expansion during the 1972–1997 and 2002–2011 periods; but was largely decoupled between 1997 and 2002, when strong increments in production were accompanied by low deforestation. The high resolution analysis also indicated contrasting levels of association after and before 1997. The soybean deforestation decoupled periods in Brazil and Argentina shared similarly weak economic incentives for soybean production, rapid technological innovation and preceding high deforestation periods. In the Argentine case, when economic incentives turned positive after a 5-years decoupled period, new government measures were unable to regulate deforestation. Our study suggests that macroeconomic factors can be a much stronger deforestation force compared with domestic legal frameworks. Effectiveness of neotropical deforestation regulation should be carefully monitored and interpreted with caution paying special attention to global economic context for soybean expansion.     

Forest protection and tenure status: The key role of indigenous peoples and protected areas in Panama

Using recent land cover maps, we used matching techniques to analyze forest cover and assess effectiveness in avoiding deforestation in three main land tenure regimes in Panama, namely protected areas, indigenous territories and non-protected areas. We found that the tenure status of protected areas and indigenous territories (including comarcas and claimed lands) explains a higher rate of success in avoided deforestation than other land tenure categories, when controlling for covariate variables such us distance to roads, distance to towns, slope, and elevation. In 2008 protected areas and indigenous territories had the highest percentage of forest cover and together they hosted 77% of Panama's total mature forest area. Our study shows the promises of matching techniques as a potential tool for demonstrating and quantifying conservation efforts. We therefore propose that matching could be integrated to methodological approaches allowing compensating forests’ protectors. Because conserving forest carbon stocks in forested areas of developing countries is an essential component of REDD+ and its future success, the discussion of our results is relevant to countries or jurisdictions with high forest cover and low deforestation rates.