Bias,variance and computational properties of Kijko’s estimators of the upper limit of magnitude distribution,M<Subscript>max</Subscript>

It is often assumed in probabilistic seismic hazard analysis that the magnitude distribution has an upper limit M _max, which indicates a limitation on event size in specific seismogeneic conditions. Accurate estimation of M _max from an earthquake catalog is a matter of utmost importance. We compare bias, dispersion and computational properties of four popular M _max estimators, introduced by Kijko and others (e.g., Kijko and Sellevoll 1989, Kijko and Graham 1998, Kijko 2004) and we recommend the ones which can be the most fruitful in practical applications. We provide nomograms for evaluation of bias and standard deviation of the recommended estimators for combinations of sample sizes and distribution parameters. We suggest to use the bias nomograms to correct the M _max estimates. The nomograms of standard deviation can be used to determine minimum sample size for a required accuracy of M _max.     

Effect of Aftershocks on Assessment of Seismic Hazard for Hebei Seismic Zone,China

In this paper,the earthquake hazard parameters(λm,b and Mmax) from the maximum likelihood method for the raw catalogue and declustered catalogues have been used to discuss the effect of the aftershocks on the earthquake hazard estimation.The declusterd catalogues have been compoiled from the raw catalogues by deleting the aftershocks in different time interval after main shock according to the criteria for the aftershock activity period.As an example,Hebei seismic zone is taken to show the effect of the aftershock on the earthquake hazard assessment because three strong earthquakes with the aftershocks occurred from 1966,to 1976,The results have been shown that the effect of the aftershocks on the parameters λm,b is significant.The difference between the clustered and declustered catalogues has reached in seismic activity rate and recurrence period,at most,45% and 90%,respectively,But the diffeence in Mmax is smaller,Based on this,the suggestion that the aftershocks should be omitted in the estimation of the earthquake hazard could be made,but how long the aftershocks activity duration is still left to the future research.     

Dependence of reaction rate of pyrite oxidation on temperature, pH and oxidant concentration

Pyrite is a common sulfide mineral, particularly abundant in mining waste. It is a focus of mine envi-ronmental concern because the oxidation of exposed pyrite may lead to acid drainage and poisonous mate-rials (like As and heavy metals) release. In the United States, approximately $1000000 per day is spent in alleviating acid mine drainage[1], while the Canadian mining community has environmental liabilities that exceed $2 billion for disposal, management, and rec-lamation of mine waste[2]. …     

Geochemical,isotopic and single crystal <Superscript>40</Superscript>Ar/<Superscript>39</Superscript>Ar age constraints on the evolution of the Cerro Galán ignimbrites

The giant ignimbrites that erupted from the Cerro Galán caldera complex in the southern Puna of the high Andean plateau are considered to be linked to crustal and mantle melting as a consequence of delamination of gravitationally unstable thickened crust and mantle lithosphere over a steepening subduction zone. Major and trace element analyses of Cerro Galán ignimbrites (68–71% SiO₂) that include 75 new analyses can be interpreted as reflecting evolution at three crustal levels. AFC modeling and new fractionation corrected δ¹⁸O values from quartz (+7.63–8.85‰) are consistent with the ignimbrite magmas being near 50:50 mixtures of enriched mantle (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr ~ 0.7055) and crustal melts (⁸⁷Sr/⁸⁶Sr near 0.715–0.735). Processes at lower crustal levels are predicated on steep heavy REE patterns (Sm/Yb = 4–7), high Sr contents (>250 ppm) and very low Nb/Ta (9-5) ratios, which are attributed to amphibolite partial melts mixing with fractionating mantle basalts to produce hybrid melts that rise leaving a gravitationally unstable garnet-bearing residue. Processes at mid crustal levels create large negative Eu anomalies (Eu/Eu* = 0.45–0.70) and variable trace element enrichment in a crystallizing mush zone with a temperature near 800–850°C. The mush zone is repeatedly recharged from depth and partially evacuated into upper crustal magma chambers at times of regional contraction. Crystallinity differences in the ignimbrites are attributed to biotite, zoned plagioclase and other antecrysts entering higher level chambers where variable amounts of near-eutectic crystallization occurs at temperatures as low as 680°C just preceding eruption. ⁴⁰Ar/³⁹Ar single crystal sanidine weighted mean plateau and isochron ages combined with trace element patterns show that the Galán ignimbrite erupted in more than one batch including a ~ 2.13 Ma intracaldera flow and outflows to the west and north at near 2.09 and 2.06 Ma. Episodic delamination of gravitationally unstable lower crust and mantle lithosphere and injection of basaltic magmas, whose changing chemistry reflects their evolution over a steepening subduction zone, could trigger the eruptions of the Cerro Galán ignimbrites.     

Measurement of radon gas on major faults in California,USA

ＭｅａｓｕｒｅｍｅｎｔｏｆｒａｄｏｎｇａｓｏｎｍａｊｏｒｆａｕｌｔｓｉｎＣａｌｉｆｏｒｎｉａ，ＵＳＡＷｅｉＺＨＡＮＧ（张炜）ａｎｄＣｈｉ－ＹｕＫＩＮＧ（金继宇）（ＣｅｎｔｅｒｆｏｒＡｎａｌｙｓｉｓａｎｄＰｒｅｄｉｃｔｉｏｎ，ＳｔａｔｅＳｅｓｉｍｏｌｏ...     

The evolution of sub-mesoscale,coherent vortices on the β-plane

Abstract

An investigation is made of the evolution of small-scale, axisymmetric vortices in a stratified fluid with spatially variable Coriolis parameter. The criteria for smadness are a horizontal scale less than or equal to the first internal radius of deformation and a vertical scale less than or equal to that of the ambient stratification. These circumstances match those of Sub-mesoscale, Coherent Vortices frequently observed in the oceans. The dynamical model is the balance equations, which include various effects of finite Rossby number. The principal topics are the regime of nearly uniform propagation, the development of an equilibrium ratio of vertical and horizontal scales (i.e., Burger number selection), and the occurrence of various types of instability for vortices with extremes in amplitude or shape.     

Variation of Q value before and after the 1999 Xiuyan, Liaoning Province, M=5.4 earthquake on the basis of analysis on attenuation dispersion of P waves

Introduction The medium in the Earth is inhomogeneous, anelastic and anisotropic. By studying the at- tenuation of seismic waves we can acquire some information on the component and property of the material, as well as temperature distribution in the Earth. Dispersion of body waves is caused by the anelasticity of the medium (Wuenschel, 1965; Doornbos , 1983). There are two kinds of approach for studying the wave attenuation: amplitude decay and dispersion. Based on wave am- plitude decay me…     

Study on the Genesis of the Yongsheng Earthquake with Ms6.0 on October 27, 2001

On October 27, 2001, a large earthquake with Ms6.0, named the Yongsheng earthquake, occurred along the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghai fault in Yongsheng County, Yuunan Province. It is the largest event to occur along the Chenghai fault in the last 200 years. The seismo-geological survey shows that the seismogenic fault, which is the Jinshajiang segment of Chenghal fault, takes left-lateral strike-slip as its dominant movement pattern. According to differences in vertical motion, motion time, landforms and scales, the Chenhai fault can be divided into eight segments. The Jinshajiang segment has a vertical dislocation rate of 0.4mm/a, far lower than the mean rate of the Chenghai fault, about 2.0 mm/a. It‘ s deduced that the two sides of Jinshajiang segment “stuck“ tightly and hindered the strike-slip of the Chenghai fault. The strong earthquake distribution before this event shows that the Jinshajiang segment was in the seismic gap. The Chenghai fault, as a boundary of tectonic sub-blocks, makes the Northwest Yunnan block and the Middle Yunnan block move clockwise, and their margins move oppositely along the Chenghai fault. In the motion process of the Chenghai fault, structural hindrance and the seismic gap of strong earthquakes are propitious to the concentration and accumulation of structure stress. As a result, the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake occurred. The Sujiazhuang-Shangangfu segment is similar to the Jinshajiang segment with a low vertical motion rate of 0.3 mm/a and in the seismic gap. So it‘s postulated that the segment may become a new structure hindrance, and the Yongsheng Ms6.0 earthquake may trigger the occurrence of future large earthquakes along this segment.     

Finite-difference migration of the field of refracted waves in studies of the deep structure of the Earth’s crust and the upper mantle based on the DSS (on the example of the <Emphasis Type="Italic">DOBRE</Emphasis> profile)

The main results of deep seismic sounding (DSS) are usually presented in the form of high-velocity models of the medium. Some model examples and the international DOBRE profile have shown that the informativeness of the data obtained can be significantly enhanced by the construction of wave images of the Earth’s crust, based on the migration of refracted and wide-angle reflected waves. The Donets Basin Refraction/Reflection Experiment (DOBRE) profile crosses the Dnieper-Donets paleorift zone in the Donbas region. Along the profile, refracted waves from the basement and the upper mantle and the reflections from the crust basement (the M boundary) are reliably traced. This wave migration has been used to construct a wave image of the structure of the Earth’s crust. As a result, a clear seismic image of the basement surface, whose depth changes along the profile from 0 to 20 km, was obtained. In near-slope parts of the basin, several major faults were identified that had not been identified previously during standard kinematic data processing. It is shown that the crust-upper mantle transition zone is a clearly reflective horizon only within the crystalline massifs; under a depression, it is represented by a lens-shaped highly-heterogeneous area. As shown in the model examples, the images obtained using such a migration accurately reflect the structural features of the medium, in spite of its complicated structure.     

Evaluation of the dynamic <Emphasis Type="Italic">p</Emphasis>–<Emphasis Type="Italic">y</Emphasis><Subscript>p</Subscript> loops of pile-supported structures on sloping ground

A key issue in the design of pile-supported structures on sloping ground is soil–pile interaction, which becomes more complicated in case of dynamic loading. This study aimed to evaluate the effect of slope on the dynamic behavior of pile-supported structures by performing a series of centrifuge tests. Three models were prepared by varying the slope and soil density of dry sand grounds. The mass supported on 3 by 3 group piles was shaken applying sinusoidal wave with various amplitudes. Test results showed that the location of maximum values and distribution shape of the bending moment below the ground surface varied noticeably with the pile position in the slope case. The relationship between the soil resistance and pile deflection (p–y_p loops) was carefully evaluated by applying the piecewise cubic spline method to fit the measured bending moment curves along piles. It was found that the shape of the p–y_p loops was irregular due to the effect of slope, and immensely influenced by the movement of the unstable zone. In addition, the effect of the pile group in the horizontal case was evaluated by comparing with the previously suggested curves that represent the relationship between the soil resistance and pile–soil relative displacement (p–y curves) to propose the multiplier coefficients.     

Structural analysis and interpretation of the surface deformation associated with the Ning’er,Yunnan Province,China <Emphasis Type="Italic">M</Emphasis><Subscript>S</Subscript>6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007

The seismogenic fault and the dynamic mechanism of the Ning’er, Yunnan Province M_S6.4 earthquake of June 3, 2007 are studied on the basis of the observation data of the surface fissures, sand blow and water eruption, landslide and collapse associated with the earthquake, incorporating with the data of geologic structures, focal mechanism solutions and aftershock distribution for the earthquake area. The observation of the surface fissures reveals that the Banhai segment of the NW-trending Ning’er fault is dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NNE-trending fault is dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. The seismo-geologic hazards are concentrated mainly within a 330°-extending zone of 13.5 km in length and 4 km in width. The major axis of the isoseismal is also oriented in 330° direction, and the major axis of the seismic intensity VIII area is 13.5 km long. The focal mechanism solutions indicate that the NW-trending nodal plane of the Ning’er M_S6.4 earthquake is dominated by right-lateral slip, while the NE-trending nodal plane is dominated by left-lateral slip. The preferred distribution orientation of the aftershocks of M_S≥2 is 330°, and the focal depths are within the range of 3～12 km, predominantly within 3～10 km. The distribution of the aftershocks is consistent with the distribution zone of the seismo-geologic hazards. All the above-mentioned data indicate that the Banhai segment of the Ning’er fault is the seismogenic fault of this earthquake. Moreover, the driving force of the Ning’er earthquake is discussed in the light of the active block theory. It is believed that the northward pushing of the Indian plate has caused the eastward slipping of the Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau, which has been transformed into the southeastern-southernward squeezing of the southwest Yunnan region. As a result, the NW-trending faults in the vicinity of the Ning’er area are dominated by right-lateral strike-slip, while the NE-trending faults are dominated by left-lateral strike-slip. This tectonic framework might be the main cause of the frequent occurrence of M_S6.0～6.9 earthquakes in the area.     

Automated,high time-resolution measurements of SO<Subscript>2</Subscript> flux at Soufrière Hills Volcano,Montserrat

We report here the first results from an automated, telemetered UV scanning spectrometer system for monitoring SO ₂ emission rates at Soufrière Hills Volcano, Montserrat. Two spectrometers receive light by way of a motor-driven stepping prism and telescope in order to make vertical scans of the volcanic plume. Spectral data from these spectrometers, situated 2,800 m apart and 4,500 m from the volcano, are relayed back to the observatory every 4–5 s via radio modems. A full scan of the plume is accomplished every 1–6 min by the (time-synchronised) spectrometers and a SO ₂ emission rate is calculated using the SO ₂ slant concentrations, scan angles and plume speeds estimated from the wind speed from a telemetered weather station near to the volcano. The plume's position and dimensions are calculated using the angular data from the two spectrometers. The plume height varies significantly diurnally and seasonally and is important in order to minimise the error on SO ₂ emission rates. The new scanning system (Scanspec) provides SO ₂ emission rates from 08:00 to 16:00 h local time every day. Preliminary results highlight a number of features of the SO ₂ time series and plume dynamics and give our first indications of the errors and limits of detection of this system. SO ₂ emission rates vary widely on all time scales (minutes, days, months). This new system has already provided the first real and consistent indication that SO ₂ emission rates vary on a minutes to hours basis, which can be correlated with volcanic activity (for example, rockfall and pyroclastic flow activity). It is anticipated that this system at Soufrière Hills will yield information on shallow processes occurring on short time scales (periods of minutes to hours) as well as deep processes relating to magma supply rates, which will be associated with longer wavelength SO ₂ signals of weeks to months.     

Hydrochemical dynamics of the “lake–spring” system in the crater of El Chichón volcano (Chiapas,Mexico)

El Chichón volcano (Chiapas, Mexico) erupted violently in March–April 1982, breaching through the former volcano–hydrothermal system. Since then, the 1982 crater has hosted a shallow (1–3.3 m, acidic (pH ∼ 2.2) and warm (∼ 30 °C) crater lake with a strongly varying chemistry (Cl/SO₄ = 0–79 molar ratio). The changes in crater lake chemistry and volume are not systematically related to the seasonal variation of rainfall, but rather to the activity of near-neutral geyser-like springs in the crater (Soap Pool). These Soap Pool springs are the only sources of Cl for the lake. Their geyser-like behaviour with a long-term (months to years) periodicity is due to a specific geometry of the shallow boiling aquifer beneath the lake, which is the remnant of the 1983 Cl-rich (24,000 mg/l) crater lake water. The Soap Pool springs decreased in Cl content over time. The zero-time extrapolation (1982, year of the eruption) approaches the Cl content in the initial crater lake, meanwhile the extrapolation towards the future indicates a zero-Cl content by 2009 ± 1. This particular situation offers the opportunity to calculate mass balance and Cl budget to quantify the lake–spring system in the El Chichón crater. These calculations show that the water balance without the input of SP springs is negative, implying that the lake should disappear during the dry season. The isotopic composition of lake waters (δD and δ¹⁸O) coincide with this crater lake-SP dynamics, reflecting evaporation processes and mixing with SP geyser and meteoric water. Future dome growth, not observed yet in the post-1982 El Chichón crater, may be anticipated by changes in lake chemistry and dynamics.     

Some Analyses on Effects of Site Classification on Ground Motion Characteristics in the Chi-Chi, Taiwan Earthquake

According to the epicenter distance and the site classification, the 404 groups of earthquake recordings of the main shock of the Chi-Chi, Taiwan China earthquake in 1999 are catalogued. Based on these data, we analyze the statistical features of duration, PGA, envelopes and the response spectra ratio of the horizontal and vertical components of the acceleration recordings. The results of these analyses show that the effect of site classification on the acceleration of various components is obvious; furthermore, fault direction also has certain effects on the characteristics of the horizontal components of ground motion. The detailed research results are as follows： （ 1 ） the duration of the horizontal components of acceleration records increases with the softening of the site; （2） the direction of fault slip has some effects on PGA＇s attenuation features; （3） the average envelopes of acceleration records at different distances and site dames are basically single peak functions of time and the envelopes of horizontal and vertical components of ground motion are obviously different; （4） with the same epicenter distance, EW/NS response spectrum ratios tend to approximate 1.0 as the site becomes softer and the period shorter. V/H response spectrum ratios in short periods （〈 0. 1s） increase with the softening of site, however, V/H ratios within the long-period range （ 〉 characteristic period） decrease with the softening of the site, and the decrease of V/EW ratio speeds up relatively.     

Study on the Triggering Effect of the October, 2005 Pakistan Mw7.6 Earthquake on Its Aftershocks

The influences upon aftershocks of Coulomb failure stress change (CFSC) generated by the main-shock of the October 8, 2005, Pakistan earthquake are calculated and analyzed. The following factors are included in the calculation: (1) the difference between the pore fluid pressure and the medium elastic constant in the fault plane area and those of its surrounding medium; (2) the tectonic stress direction of the seismic source area; (3) the aftershock failure mechanism of aftershocks is calculated by stacking the tectonic stress with the stress change generated by the main-shock. Our study, which includes many factors, fits fairly well with the aftershock distribution. It indicates that most of the aftershocks were triggered by the Pakistan main-shock that occurred on October 8, 2005.     

Experimental and numerical analyses of vibrations induced by high-speed trains on the Córdoba–Málaga line

This paper has two main purposes. One is to present and analyse soil and structural vibration data obtained experimentally during certification testing of the high-speed train line between Córdoba and Málaga (Spain) that was opened on December 2007. The second is to show the capabilities of a three-dimensional boundary element method (BEM)/finite element method (FEM) numerical approach for the analysis of train induced vibrations. The model can represent local soil conditions, discontinuities such as underpasses, as well as structures placed next to the rail track. Vibrations in those structures can be computed taking into account, in a rigorous way, dynamic soil–structure interaction and local soil properties. Experimental and numerical results at several points near the track are compared. Results for an overhead contact support structure are also evaluated. The comparison of numerically predicted and recorded results shows that the model is reliable for predicting the amplitude of vibrations produced in the soil and nearby structures by high-speed trains.     

Solar sources of interplanetary shocks on November 7–11, 2004

In a methodically independent manner compared to earlier works, an adjustment is performed to a series of solar sources, including six interplanetary shocks observed on November 7–11, 2004, during a very large solar-terrestrial storm. The results of different researchers are compared with one another and with this publication.     

Paleoseismic activity on Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,inner Mongolia

Geomorphic study on Wjiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault,Inner Mongolia is made.Throuth analysis of the available data in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies it can be obtained that average vertical displacement rate is 0.48-0.75mm/a along the Wujiahe segment since the late Pleistocene(14.450-22.340ka BP)and 0.56-0.88mm/s since the early-middle Holocene(5.570-8.830ka BP).Analyzing paleoseismic phenomena revealed in the excavated 5trenches in combination with the results of predecessors‘studies of paleoearthquakes on the fault,we determine five paleoseismic events on the Wujiahe segment of Serteng piedmont fault since 27.0ka BP and the recurrence interval to be about 4.300-4.400ka,A cluster of paleoearthquakes occurred probably during 8.000-9.000ka BP and two paleoeismic events in 10.000-20.000ka BP may be missed.A comparison between height of fault scarps and sum of displacement caused by paleoseismic events revealed in trenches,and recurrence interval of paleoseismic events obtained from average displacement rate along the fault and the disloca-tion by one event suggest that three paleoseismic events are absent in Alagaitu trench.Two paleoseismic events may be absent on the whole active fault segment.