黄淮海平原农区土地利用转型及其动力机制

本文分析了黄淮海平原农区2000-2010 年间土地利用转型的时空格局,在构建土地利用转型动力机制分析概念框架基础上,运用空间计量回归分析方法深入剖析了黄淮海平原农区5种主要土地利用类型转换的动力机制。黄淮海平原农区土地利用转型特征表现为：2000-2010年,耕地、未利用地和草地面积的减少伴随城乡建设用地、水域和林地面积的增加;2000-2005年变化幅度明显大于2005-2010 年的变化幅度。分析结果表明：黄淮海平原农区5 种主要土地利用类型转换是自然环境和社会经济多种因素共同作用的结果,其中交通和区位条件对这5 种土地利用类型转换的影响最为显著,是导致土地利用转型的共性驱动因子。并指出：地方各级政府在制定有关土地利用政策时,既应充分考虑驱动各种土地利用转型的主要因子及其地域分异和社会经济发展规律,还需考虑各地类之间转换的适宜性及难易程度,因地制宜开展土地综合整治与利用,让土地利用转型与当地自然环境条件和区域经济社会发展阶段相适应,并使其发生在适宜的区域范围内。     

黄淮海平原农区典型村庄用地扩展及其动力机制

以地处黄淮海平原农区的禹城市伦镇赵庄村为典型案例,利用高分辨率航空遥感数据为基本信息源,结合村庄逐户调查数据,通过土地利用分类与制图,定量研究典型村庄用地格局特征、扩展模式及其动力机制。结果表明:赵庄村土地利用呈耕地—作业空间—居住空间的圈层式空间格局。2008年村庄用地规模比1967年增加了1.26倍,主要表现为宅基地的扩展和打谷场用地增长,1985~1990年村庄用地扩展速度最快,村庄用地在空间上向西和向南方向扩展显著。村庄用地扩展主要表现为渐进式蔓延扩展、突变式非地扩展和填充式补充扩展三个阶段。农户居住需求增长与农业生产规模扩大是村庄用地扩展的内生动力,村庄内部条件与外围环境的巨大反差是村庄用地向外扩展的外部环境动力,农户收入增长为村庄用地扩展提供了经济基础,而村庄土地规划缺失与管理缺位使村庄用地扩展失去约束力,这些因素相互作用,共同驱动村庄用地扩展。最后,针对村庄用地扩展存在的问题,提出了促进村庄土地可持续利用的对策建议。     

黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制

本文以县域为基本研究单元,从经济、社会及生态三个维度构建了耕地功能评价指标体系,分析了黄淮海平原耕地功能演化的时空特征,利用耦合动态度模型探讨了耕地功能间耦合关系的演变。在此基础上,利用空间计量模型,对耕地功能演化的驱动机制进行了定量分析。研究结果表明：① 1990-2010年间,冀中南及豫东地区部分欠发达县市耕地经济功能明显增强,发达的城市群及其腹地受工业化及城镇化影响较大,耕地经济功能持续下降;60.29%的县域单元耕地的社会功能下降,增强区主要集聚于郑州北部、德州及沧州西部、烟台、威海等区域;生态功能变化在空间格局上基本形成了以豫北、山东中部山地丘陵区为核心的增长区以及以环京津、环济南地区为核心的持续下降区。② 黄淮海平原耕地经济、社会及生态功能的耦合度及协调度空间差异显著,且退耦化现象日渐突出;经济发达地区耕地的社会及生态功能演化速率普遍滞后于经济功能。③ 黄淮海平原耕地的功能演化是区域本底因素与外部驱动因素综合作用的结果;城镇化与工业化进程中人口、产业的转型对耕地经济、社会及生态功能演化的强度及方向起决定性作用。并指出：黄淮海平原应激活农业现代化、产业化发展动力,促进传统农业的转型升级,充分考虑耕地功能演化的区域分异特征,实行由发达城市地区到欠发达传统农区的差异化、多元化的耕地多功能利用与管理模式。     

黄淮海平原耕地功能演变的时空特征及其驱动机制（英文）

Using counties as the basic analysis unit,this study established an evaluation index system for farmland function(FF) from economic,social,and ecological perspectives.The method combining entropy weighting and multiple correlation coefficient weighting was adopted to determine the weights,and the FF indices were calculated for each county.Subsequently,the spatio-temporal characteristics of farmland function evolution(FFE) were analyzed and the coupled relationships between the sub-functions were explored based on a coupling coordination model.At the same time,the dynamic mechanism of FFE was quantitatively analyzed using a spatial econometric regression analysis method.The following major conclusions were drawn:(1) The farmland economic function generally exhibited a declining trend during 1990–2010,and it is essential to point out that it was stronger in underdeveloped and agriculture-dominated counties,while it continuously weakened in developed areas.Farmland social function decreased in 60.29% of the counties,whereas some counties,which were mostly located in north of Zhengzhou and west of Dezhou and Cangzhou,Yantai,and Weihai,clearly increased.A dramatic decline in farmland ecological function occurred around Beijing,Tianjin,and Jinan.Areas located in the northern part of Henan Province and the central part of Shandong Province saw an increase in ecological function.(2) There was a significant spatial difference in the coupling degree and coordination degree of the sub-functions,and the decoupling phenomenon highlighted this.The changes in social function and ecological function lagged behind economic function in developed areas,but these were highly coupled in some underdeveloped areas.(3) FFE in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain(HHHP) is resulted from the comprehensive effects of regional basic conditions and external driving factors.Furthermore,the transitions of population and industry under urbanization and industrialization played a decisive role in the evolution intensity and direction of farmland sub-systems,including the economy,society,and the ecology.According to the results mentioned above,promoting the transformation from traditional agriculture to modern agricultureshould be regarded as an important engine driving sustainable development in the HHHP.Taking different regional characteristics of FFE into account,differentiated and diversified farmland use and management plans should be implemented from more developed urban areas to underdeveloped traditional agricultural areas.     

北京城市副中心（通州区）土地利用演变格局与模拟（英文）

北京城市副中心（通州区）承接着北京中心城区的非首都核心功能,其快速建设发展亟需对区域内土地利用演变格局的科学认识。本文分析了改革开放40年来通州区土地利用演变格局,根据土地利用历史演变特征与城市发展规划目标,结合文旅发展驱动要素,运用FLUS模型模拟城镇化加速、减速和可持续发展3种情景下2035年北京城市副中心（通州区）土地利用空间分布格局。结果表明：（1）北京城市副中心（通州区）以城镇发展建设为主,1980—2010年高速城镇化阶段形成“沿六环顺运河”的城市扩张格局,2010—2020年低速城镇化阶段用地分布稳定,通州区形成从西北至东南城乡分异、土地集约化发展格局,副中心作为通州区城镇化的典型区域具有与通州整体相似的时空演变特征;（2）到2035年,3种情景间土地利用变化幅度和空间分布存在显著差异,城镇可持续发展情景下生态用地面积与分布最优,有利于实现城市可持续发展。在与三大副中心分区规划的契合程度分析中,可持续发展情景下预测模拟与市政府发布的《北京城市副中心控制性详细规划（街区层面）（2016—2035年）》（简称《规划》）用地高度契合,但文化旅游功能区和宜居生活风貌区中模拟预测与...     

土地利用转型与乡村空间治理——机制、框架与展望（英文）

The pattern for utilization of rural space is closely related to rural transformation development(RTD). The problem of rural space utilization is an important manifestation of the uncoordinated relationship between land use patterns and rural development status during a transformation period. Considering the rural space utilization issue, this article seeks to analyze the interaction mechanisms between land use transition(LUT) and rural spatial governance and then build a rural spatial governance analysis framework based on LUT. Also, the paper explores the internal relationship between rural spatial governance and rural vitalization and discusses the research prospective of the interaction. The study found that:(1) Rural space utilization has systemic problems such as limited development space, ill-defined ownership and poor organization, which have become important obstacles for rural development.(2) The uncoordinated relationship between LUT and RTD is an important reason for the dilemma surrounding rural space utilization.(3) The LUT provides a basis for determining the timing of rural spatial governance, specifying spatial governance objectives, and clarifying rural spatial governance methods.(4) The construction of a comprehensive analysis framework of "matter-ownership-organization" of rural space based on the LUT has created conditions for the orderly promotion of rural spatial governance.(5) Rural spatial governance which facilitates the integration of urban-rural development is an important foundation for rural vitalization.(6) Interaction analysis of LUT, RTD and rural spatial governance is conducive to facilitating research on the operational mechanism of rural regional systems and to expanding the research field of rural geography.     

低碳背景下露天煤矿土地利用结构优化——以乌海市骆驼山矿区为例（英文）

人类对全球碳循环的影响主要来自于土地利用活动,随着露天煤矿开采进程加快,矿区内碳排放量增加、生态系统功能下降等问题显著,亟需探索低碳下生态效益最佳的土地利用优化结构,为西北干旱荒漠矿区土地利用结构优化调整提供理论支持。本研究以乌海市骆驼山矿区为研究对象,在矿区土地利用碳排放量核算的基础上,利用多目标线性规划模型以低碳排放和高生态系统服务价值为目标,探究矿区土地利用最优结构。研究结果：优化后的草地和水域面积有所增加,采矿用地和未利用地面积有所减少;与2021年相比,优化后方案碳排放量降低了19045.93tC,生态系统服务价值提升了5338.14万元。研究结果表明,以土地利用碳排放最小化、生态系统服务价值最大化为目标的矿区土地利用结构优化方案可以在低碳减排下,实现土地利用生态效益的提升,以期为西北干旱荒漠区矿山土地利用结构优化和生态修复工作提供科学指导。     

农户生计转型及其生态效应研究进展（英文）

农户生计及其对生态系统的影响是反映人地关系的重要表征。合理恰当的农户生计策略既能满足人类福祉需求,也能促进自然资源的可持续利用,进而维持自然生态系统的健康稳定。学术界围绕农户生计变化、驱动机制及其生态效应等方面开展了大量研究,但关于农户生计转型的生态效应还存在较多争议问题。本文在搜集梳理相关文献基础上,辨析了农户生计的转型机制及生态效应的已有研究成果,并进一步探究了两者之间的耦合关系,发现农户生计的选择受到自然因素、主观意愿和社会政策三方面影响,而农户生计的转型改变了生产、消费、资源利用方式,进而影响着自然生态系统演化过程。文章建立了农户生计转型机制及其生态效应研究框架,最后提出了未来需要深入研究的方向：（1）探究农户生计转型驱动因子之间的相互作用及其对农户生计选择产生影响;（2）结合农户生计转型的驱动因子和生态效应,提出农户生计需求和自然资源利用的双向可持续策略。     

内蒙古十大孔兑主河道纵剖面发育动力机制（英文）

The longitudinal profiles of main streams of ten kongdui basins within Inner Mongolian Autonomous Region of China were characterized in this study by analyzing a series of quantitative indexes that are relevant to tectonic activity and river action, and by establishing a series of multiple regression models. The results reveal that all longitudinal profiles are concave in shape, with a range of concavity between 1.1 and 3.1, increasing from west to east. Data also show that the concavity of the profiles is significantly negatively correlated with profile length, altitude difference, average altitude, drainage area and sediment load of the basins. Analysis reveals that kongdui basins have suffered from moderate-to-weak tectonic activity over time, again characterized by a west-to-east weakening trend. Stream power also varies along the main channels of the ten kongdui basins; average values in each case fall between 0.8 W/m and 8.4 W/m, generally higher within the middle reaches. This decreasing trend in stream power within the lower reaches of kongdui basins might provide one key explanation for sedimentation there. Data also show that the average stream power in western and central basins tends to be higher than that in eastern examples, even though both the highest and the lowest values are seen within two middle ones. This analysis shows that the longitudinal profile concavity values are mainly controlled by tectonic activity and that the effect of river action is insignificant.     

英国城市绿化带土地利用及其对中国的启示——以斯佩尔索恩（Spelthorne）区为例

绿化带被认为是英国城乡规划的核心元素之一,其在控制城市增长和保护乡村景观方面起着非常重要的作用。土地利用是绿化带政策关注的主要内容。该文首先简要介绍了英国绿化带的功能和范围;然后剖析了英国的规划系统。由于区级（相当于中国的乡镇级）规划在英国的土地利用和绿化带保护中占有重要的地位,因此,该文以位于伦敦绿化带中的斯佩尔索恩...     

Spatio-temporal differences and factors influencing intensive cropland use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

This study developed a comprehensive system to evaluate the intensity of cropland use and evolution of cropland use in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain. Delphi-entropy methods were adopted to determine the weight of the index, and the GeoDetector model was established to explore the influencing factors. The results are summarized as follows: (1) The intensity of inputs, degree of utilization, and production increased continuously, but the intensity of continuous conditions experienced an overall decline followed by a rebound towards the end of the study period. The number of counties with high and moderately high intensity increased by 56.8% and 14.6%, respectively, from 1996 to 2011. The number of counties with moderately low and low intensity declined by 35.9 % and 11.9 %, respectively. Areas with significant increases in intensity were mainly distributed in northeast Hebei Province, northwest Shandong Province, and north Jiangsu Province. The intensity is high in northern Jiangsu and Anhui; the output effect remained above moderate intensity mainly near Beijing, Tianjin, Tangshan, and counties in the suburbs of Shijiazhuang. (2) Natural disasters, elevation, slope, and road networks were the main factors influencing the intensity of cropland use in this region, with influence values of 0.158, 0.143, 0.129, and 0.054, respectively. Areas with moderately high and high levels of intensity were distributed in low-lying areas. Uneven distribution of precipitation, seasonal drought, and flood disasters can directly affect the stability index of croplands and reduce the intensity of cropland use. Developed road networks are associated with moderately high intensity. Our results suggest recommendations such as promoting agricultural intensification and large-scale management, promoting the construction of road networks, improving early warning systems for drought and flood disasters, and promoting moderate and intensive use of arable land, and focusing on restoration and sustainable use of cropland.     

农业生产转型类型诊断及其对乡村振兴的启示——以黄淮海地区为例

城乡转型发展背景下,农业生产转型成为解析区域乡村人地关系演变的重要窗口。科学诊断中国传统农区农业生产转型的类型及其存在的核心问题,可为调控农业生产政策和完善乡村发展战略提供参考。论文以中国传统农区黄淮海地区为例,以农业生产转型的类型划分为突破口,系统诊断不同农业生产转型类型面临的困境及其破解方案。研究发现：“自上而下”和“自下而上”相结合的多尺度分析法是分析农业生产转型阶段差异的有效手段;空间弹性视角下,黄淮海地区农业生产转型类型可以划分为传统农耕型、现代市场型和城郊休闲型3类;传统农耕型地区耕地利用转型与农业劳动力转型的失调、缺乏核心产业支撑及实际城镇化率较低是限制乡村有序转型的关键问题;现代市场型地区不合理的土地利用状态和小农户的有效组织是当前亟需突破的难题;城郊休闲型地区完善农户的市场参与方式和降低资本风险是当前必须考虑的问题;针对各转型类型的差异化问题因地制宜科学施策,有利于推动乡村振兴战略的落实。     

Spatio-temporal patterns and driving mechanism of farmland fragmentation in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain

Exploring the spatio-temporal variations of farmland landscape patterns in a traditional agricultural region can provide scientific support for decision-making on sustainable rural land use and rural vitalization development. This study established a comprehensive evaluation index for farmland fragmentation with multiple aspects (dominance, integrity, aggregation, regularity, and connectivity) at the county scale. The goal was to identify the evolution of farmland fragmentation in the traditional agricultural region of the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain during 2000-2015 and investigate underlying drivers using panel data of 359 counties. Results showed an accelerating but fluctuating fragmentation pattern of the farmland landscape. The indexes of dominance, integrity, and aggregation of farmland decreased most sharply, while the index of connectivity increased. Furthermore, the evolution of the farmland fragmentation pattern showed significant spatio-temporal heterogeneity, which is similar to the trajectory of urbanization and land use transition. Farmland fragmentation in municipal districts also emerged earlier and was more severe than in county-level cities and counties. Factors influenced by advancing urbanization include the proportion of artificial land, population density, and proportion of primary industry; these factors drove the evolution of farmland fragmentation. In contrast, the increase in income of rural residents and production efficiency of farmland were the key factors contributing to the improvement in farmland connectivity.     

黄淮海平原水土资源利用的可持续性评价、开发潜力及对策

黄淮海平原耕地顷均水资源量仅及全国平均水平的1／4，目前缺水率为19．3％，水资源利用可持续性综合评价指标属于中等偏下水平，为我国较为严重的缺水区，尤其是海河低平原区。土地资源利用对种植业而言，属于临界可持续状态，山前平原区指数值最低，有使耕地进一步向非农用方面转化的可能。2010年，本区水资源可供水量将比2000年增长22．4％，耕地面积仍能维持1998年水平。本区水土资源的区域匹配有明显的地区差异：山前平原区与海河低平原区水资源开发潜力不大，土地利用受缺水制约，水资源利用率已超过86％，平均可利用水资源量不足2500m^3/hm^2；但黄淮平原区和滨海低平原区水土资源均有较大的开发潜力，水资源利用率低于50％，平均可利用水资源量分别为3330m^3/hm^2和7020m^3/hm^2。本区水土资源利用的对策应为：积极开辟灌溉新水源（2010年外流域调水量和污水处理回用与微咸水利用量分别占可供水量的20．2％和4．9％），积极发展节水灌溉新技术，加快中低产地改造与高产农田的建设（中低产地改造后每公顷可增产粮食1950kg）以及实施稳定北部、提高中部、发展南部粮食生产的重点区域发展布局，以促进其农业和农村的可持续发展。     

基于栅格面积成分数据的土地利用格局解释模型稳健估计

针对最小二乘估计不能应用于栅格尺度以面积成分表征的土地利用格局驱动机理分析的难题,本文提出了一种利用偏最小二乘回归法稳健估计该类土地利用格局解释模型的方法。利用该方法能在解释变量间存在多重共线性的情况下,获得基于栅格面积成分数据的土地利用格局解释模型的稳健估计。本文推导了应用偏最小二乘回归分析的数据处理和建模估计过程,并运用该方法开展了针对黄淮海地区耕地、建设用地分布格局及其驱动因子的建模分析,得到了拟合优度高的估计结果。研究表明,偏最小二乘回归分析方法在开展栅格尺度以面积成分表征的土地利用格局驱动机理分析时具备高效与稳健的特征,适宜在类似研究中推广应用。     

Effect of water fluctuation on agriculturalproduction in the Huang-Huai-Hai Plain, China

Foundationitem:UndertheauspicesofChineseAcademyofScinceswithprojectcodeNo.KZ95T-04-01TheHuangHuaidsPlainconsistingOf3l7counhes(cihesordistrictS)bClongto5provincesOfHebei,Shandong,Henan,JiangsuandAIthuiand2medcipallhesofBeijingandTianjin.TheCultivatedlandareawas17.7ndllionhmandthePOpulahonwas2l2-5Ini1lioninl995.ThetOtalyteldofghn,cottonndoilcropsoftheplainregionwas22.6,39.7and24'2%reSPectivelyofthecountry'stotalin1995.1TheBearingCapacityofWaterResourcesintheHuangHuai-HaiPlainAcc…