Relationship between the Interannual Variations of Total Ozone in the Northern Hemisphere and the QBO of Basic Flow in the Tropical Stratosphere

The harmonic analyses of monthly mean total ozone in the atmosphere over the Northern Hemisphere for 26 years (1960-1985) are made by using the Fourier expansion. The analysed results show that there is obviously a quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) in the interannual variations of the amplitudes of total ozone. Generally, the amplitudes of wavenumber 1 and 2 during the westerly of the equatorial QBO are larger than those during the easterly. In the early winter, the amplitude of wavenumber 1 during the easterly phase is larger, and in the late winter, it is larger during the westerly phase. These are in good agreement with the observational distributions.     

Response of the Intensity of Subtropical High in the Northern Hemisphere to Solar Activity

Using the intensity data of each northern subtropical high measured by monthly 500 hPa height charts for the recent 38 years (1954-1991), we calculate their correlations with the monthly sunspot number and monthly solar radio flux at 10.7 cm wave length, respectively. Through strict test, we further confirm a series of high correlations. Next, using a method called the non-integer (year) wave, the significant response of each subtropical high’s intensity to so-lar activity at its main period of 10.9-year length is found. Special attention is paid to that of the eastern Pacific high, the possible mechanism of such sensible response is also analysed.     

Pathways of Influence of the Northern Hemisphere Mid–high Latitudes on East Asian Climate: A Review

This paper reviews recent progress made by Chinese scientists on the pathways of influence of the Northern Hemisphere mid–high latitudes on East Asian climate within the framework of a "coupled oceanic–atmospheric(land–atmospheric or seaice–atmospheric) bridge" and "chain coupled bridge". Four major categories of pathways are concentrated upon, as follows:Pathway A—from North Atlantic to East Asia; Pathway B—from the North Pacific to East Asia; Pathway C—from the Arctic to East Asia; and Pathway D—the synergistic effects of the mid–high latitudes and tropics. In addition, definitions of the terms "combined effect", "synergistic effect" and "antagonistic effect" of two or more factors of influence or processes and their criteria are introduced, so as to objectively investigate those effects in future research.     

Extreme events,trends, and variability in Northern Hemisphere lake-ice phenology (1855–2005)

Often extreme events, more than changes in mean conditions, have the greatest impact on the environment and human well-being. Here we examine changes in the occurrence of extremes in the timing of the annual formation and disappearance of lake ice in the Northern Hemisphere. Both changes in the mean condition and in variability around the mean condition can alter the probability of extreme events. Using long-term ice phenology data covering two periods 1855–6 to 2004–5 and 1905–6 to 2004–5 for a total of 75 lakes, we examined patterns in long-term trends and variability in the context of understanding the occurrence of extreme events. We also examined patterns in trends for a 30-year subset (1975–6 to 2004–5) of the 100-year data set. Trends for ice variables in the recent 30-year period were steeper than those in the 100- and 150-year periods, and trends in the 150-year period were steeper than in the 100-year period. Ranges of rates of change (days per decade) among time periods based on linear regression were 0.3−1.6 later for freeze, 0.5−1.9 earlier for breakup, and 0.7−4.3 shorter for duration. Mostly, standard deviation did not change, or it decreased in the 150-year and 100-year periods. During the recent 50-year period, standard deviation calculated in 10-year windows increased for all ice measures. For the 150-year and 100-year periods changes in the mean ice dates rather than changes in variability most strongly influenced the significant increases in the frequency of extreme lake ice events associated with warmer conditions and decreases in the frequency of extreme events associated with cooler conditions.     

Sensitivity of the Northern Hemisphere circulation to North Atlantic SSTs in the ARPÈGE Climate AGCM

In order to determine the response of the atmosphere to winter sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the North Atlantic area, we carried out ensemble runs of 20 years, forced with constant, perturbed, SST patterns using the climate version of the ARPèGE AGCM, at T42 resolution. A Monte Carlo technique was applied, in such a way that the control experiment, forced with observed climatological temperatures, and the four scenario experiments, forced with perturbed SSTs are equivalent to a length of 20 independent winters. Four anomalous winter North Atlantic sea surface temperature (SST) fields have been constructed by considering the observed SST variability in the main basins, namely the Labrador Sea and the Greenland Sea. Two patterns are of the `seesaw' type, while the two others have same the polarity in both basins. The patterns have been reinforced by a factor of 5–6 compared to presently observed multi-annual anomalies, in order to get SST anomalies which may have occurred during periods of the Little Ice Age. The differences between each of the four winter simulations with perturbed SSTs and the control run are analyzed in terms of tropospheric thickness, mean-sea-level pressure and storm activity. The `seesaw' type patterns give a weaker response in the tropospheric thickness fields than the two others. This is expected from simple considerations. In the mean circulation and synoptic activity, it appears that the Labrador Sea SST is important in determining the atmospheric response. This is probably due to enhanced temperature gradients east of New Foundland which enhances the storm activity. Received: 23 September 1998 / Accepted: 17 November 1999     

Evaluation of surface ozone measurements during 2000–2005 at a rural area in the upper Spanish plateau

This paper presents the main experimental results of surface ozone concentrations measured at a rural area in Northern Spain from February 2000 to December 2005. Daily and seasonal variation of ozone has been analysed. The peak concentration levels are obtained in the afternoon, mean value around 88 μg m⁻³, with extreme average values of 59 μg m⁻³ in January and 113 μg m⁻³ in July. Small differences are found in the mean and median of the ozone levels from April to August, when spring and summer maxima are observed. Despite the great inter-annual ozone variability obtained, most air quality indicators showed a positive trend. Further analysis of the monthly mean ozone concentrations of the main percentiles have also been performed using a harmonic model. The upward trend was 6.2 ± 1.7 μg m⁻³ for the 98th percentile. To interpret the main features of the annual cycle and describe the ozone peaks, the influence of meteorological factors is studied. In summer, ozone production is governed by local processes, air temperature being the major controlling factor. However, the origin of the spring maximum is not so well identified.     

The distribution of the total ozone values in the end of the polar winter—the key to the forecast of extreme seasons?

The possibility to use the observations of the total ozone values in the atmosphere (TO) in the end of polar winters as the indicator of the cold accumulation in the troposphere and the type of its circulation is considered. The influence of TO over polar regions on the approach of early and late circulation reconstructions in the stratosphere and the following weather type in spring-summer season is concluded.     

Space/Time Features of the Secular Variation in 1951–1998 Northern 500-hPa Height

Summary  This paper presents a trend coefficient as a characteristic index with which to investigate the 1951–1998 secular trend variation (STV) of northern 500-hPa height on a seasonal basis. Evidence suggests that low (high) latitude 500 hPa geopotential height displays a remarkably positive (negative) trend; the positive anomaly of the height is maintained over NW Africa, the western Mediterranean Sea and North Africa, mid-Pacific at lower latitudes, Lake Baikal and area to the east and NW North America; the height drops significantly over the Aleutians and North Pacific, the area to the south of the Greenland and NE North America and the sector to the north of the Arabian Sea. Further, analysis of abrupt change shows that the 500-hPa circulations experience noticeable sudden change twice, once around the early 1960s and again in 1976, during which period the height exhibits great differences between the Pacific and Atlantic. In the first period it drops (rises) over the mid-Atlantic at lower latitudes (NW Africa); in the second period the height rises (drops) over the mid-Pacific at lower latitudes and Lake Baikal (the North Pacific). Statistical tests indicate that in the 1976 case the low-latitude positive abrupt change is even more noticeable compared to the negative of the North Pacific, thus representing a large-scale jumping event of the northern 500-hPa height. Received April 9, 1999/Revised October 15, 1999     

Peculiarities of surface air temperature variations over the Far East regions in 1976–2005

Peculiarities are investigated of the air temperature variation tendencies at some stations of the Far East in 1976–2005. The estimate of linear trend equation coefficients is computed according to the air temperature observation data using the least squares method. It is demonstrated that the air temperature trend in northern regions possesses a small probability at small values of residual variability. In the southern regions, the trend significance increases for almost all seasons at small values of residual variability. At midlatitude stations, the trend significance in January and February decreases considerably due to the large values of residual variability.     

Statistical analysis and comparison of external factor effects on the total ozone field over the Russian territory in 1973–2007

The analysis of external factors, which are most significant for the formation of the monthly mean total ozone (TO) field and ozone transport over the Russian Federation, based on observation data obtained from about 30 ground-based stations of the ozonometric network averaged over a year, December through March and June through August, over five climatic regions, is considered. Performed spectrum and discriminant analysis allowed obtaining quantitative estimates of the impact of the Arctic Oscillation, deviation of the winter temperature of the lower polar stratosphere, quasi-biennial oscillations (QBO), 11-year solar cycle, El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) on the TO and to assess the regional differences in the effects of these factors. In December–March, in the years with a negative Arctic Oscillation phase, warm stratosphere, and the easterly QBO phase (QBO-E), the ozone content increases significantly relative to the opposite phases of oscillations on average by 35, 28, and 26 Dobson units (DU), respectively. The spectra, similar to the discriminant function, demonstrate strong influence of the 11-year solar cycle and QBO on the TO even in the summer months, while the QBO is more pronounced in the eastern part of the Russian Federation. The ENSO effect was not singled out against the general “noisy” background of the cold six-month period, when many atmospheric processes become active: however, during the summer months, in warm periods of the ENSO, the TO, at the 97% significance level, increases over most of the Russian area. The rest of the obtained results are significant at the 95–99.9% level.     

Studies on the Northern Early Summer Teleconnection Patterns, Their Interannual Variations and Relation to Drought / Flood in China

By using the one-point correlation method, calculations have been made of the northern early summer 500 hPa teleconnection patterns. Seven teleconnection patterns are revealed, namely, the Western Atlantic (WA), the Eastern Atlantic (EA), the Eurasian (EU), the Bengal / Northern Pacific (BNP), the Western Pacific (WP), the East Asian / Pacific (EAP), and the Huanghe / East Asian (HEA) patterns. Their centers are determined and their yearly intensity indices (1951-1990) are calculated. On this basis the relationship between their interannual variations and the drought / flood in China is examined. It is noted that the EU, HEA and EAP wave trains are closely related to the drought / flood in China. The HEA and EAP patterns strongly influence the precipitation in eastern China. For example, the fierce floods experienced in 1991 early summer over China are related to the weak EAP and strong HEA patterns.     

Reconstruction of erythemal UV irradiance and dose at Hohenpeissenberg (1968–2001) considering trends of total ozone, cloudiness and turbidity

Summary Erythemal ultraviolet (UV) doses reaching the earths surface depend in a complex manner on the amount of total ozone, cloud cover, cloud type and the structure of the cloud field. A statistical model was developed allowing the reconstruction of UV from measured total ozone and a cloud modification factor (CMF) for the GAW site Hohenpeissenberg, Germany (48°N, 11°E). CMF is derived from solar global radiation G, normalized against a Rayleigh scattering atmosphere. By this way the complex influence of the cloud field is accounted for by introduction of a measured parameter, exposed also to this complex field. The statistical relations are derived from the period 1990–1998 where UV measurements and relevant meteorological parameters are available. With these relations daily UV doses could be reconstructed back to 1968. Tests show that the model works remarkably well even for time scales of a minute except for situations with high albedo. The comparison of measured and calculated UV irradiances shows that the model explains 97% of the variance for solar elevations above 18° on average over the period 1968–2001. The reconstruction back to 1968 indicates that maximum UV irradiances (clear days) have increased due to long-term ozone decline. Clouds show seasonally depending long-term changes, especially an increase of cirrus. Consequently the UV doses have increased less or even decreased in some months in comparison to the changes expected from the ozone decline alone. In May to August total cloud frequency and cloud cover have decreased. Therefore, the average UV doses have increased much more than can be explained by the ozone decline alone. It is also shown that the optical thickness of cirrus clouds has increased since 1953. The higher frequency of cirrus is caused in part by more frequent contrails. Besides that an observed long-term rise and cooling of the tropopause favors an easier cirrus formation. However, whether climate change and an intensification of the water cycle is responsible for the cirrus trends has not been investigated in detail.     

20–50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall in response to intraseasonal variations in the subtropical high over the western North Pacific and South China Sea

The spatio-temporal variability in summer rainfall within eastern China is identified based on empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis of daily rain-gauge precipitation data for the period 1979–2003. Spatial coherence of rainfall is found in the Yangtze Basin, and a wavelet transform is applied to the corresponding principal component to capture the intraseasonal oscillation (ISO) of Yangtze rainfall. The ensemble mean wavelet spectrum, representing statistically significant intraseasonal variability, shows a predominant oscillation in summer Yangtze rainfall with a period of 20–50 days; a 10–20-day oscillation is pronounced during June and July. This finding suggests that the 20–50-day oscillation is a major agent in regulating summer Yangtze rainfall. Composite analyses reveal that the 20–50-day oscillation of summer Yangtze rainfall arises in response to intraseasonal variations in the western North Pacific subtropical high (WNPSH), which in turn is modulated by a Rossby wave-like coupled circulation–convection system that propagates northward and northwestward from the equatorial western Pacific. When an anomalous cyclone associated with this Rossby wave-like system reaches the South China Sea (SCS) and Philippine Sea, the WNPSH retreats northeastward due to a reduction in local pressure. Under these conditions, strong monsoonal southwesterlies blow mainly toward the SCS–Philippine Sea, while dry conditions form in the Yangtze Basin, with a pronounced divergent flow pattern. In contrast, the movement of an anomalous anticyclone over the SCS–Philippine Sea results in the southwestward extension of the WNPSH; consequently, the tropical monsoonal southwesterlies veer to the northeast over the SCS and then converge toward the Yangtze Basin, producing wet conditions. Therefore, the 20–50-day oscillation of Yangtze rainfall is also manifest as a seesaw pattern in convective anomalies between the Yangtze Basin and the SCS–Philippine Sea. A considerable zonal shift in the WNPSH is associated with extreme dry (wet) episodes in the Yangtze Basin, with an abrupt eastward (westward) shift in the WNPSH generally leading the extreme negative (positive) Yangtze rainfall anomaly by a 3/8-period of the 20–50-day oscillation. This finding may have implications for improving extended-range weather forecasting in the Yangtze Basin.     

2‐D model simulations of anomalous spring variations of ozone,temperature and other minor trace constituents in the southern polar region

Abstract

A 2‐D time‐dependent Eulerian model that takes into account the major interaction between chemistry and dynamical transports in the stratosphere is used to simulate, in a self‐consistent manner, the anomalous spring variations of ozone, temperature and other relevant minor constituents in the southern polar region. The normal transport coefficients and the standard chemistry have been altered to represent the anomalous dynamical and chemical conditions in the extremely cold lower stratosphere of Southern Hemisphere (south of 65° S) spring. The results show that it is necessary to invoke both dynamical and chemical mechanisms in order to explain the observed rapid spring decline of total ozone in the southern polar region.     

Spatiotemporal variations in rainfall erosivity during the period of 1960–2011 in Guangdong Province,southern China

Rainfall erosivity, which shows a potential risk of soil loss caused by water erosion, is an important factor in soil erosion process. In consideration of the critical condition of soil erosion induced by rainfall in Guangdong Province of southern China, this study analyzed the spatial and temporal variations in rainfall erosivity based on daily rainfall data observed at 25 meteorological stations during the period of 1960–2011. The methods of global spatial autocorrelation, kriging interpolation, Mann–Kendall test, and continuous wavelet transform were used. Results revealed that the annual rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province, which spatially varied with the maximum level observed in June, was classified as high erosivity with two peaks that occur in spring and summer. In the direction of south–north, mean annual rainfall erosivity, which showed significant relationships with mean annual rainfall and latitude, gradually decreased with the high values mainly distributed in the coastal area and the low values mainly occurring in the lowlands of northwestern Guangdong. Meanwhile, a significant positive spatial autocorrelation which implied a clustered pattern was observed for annual rainfall erosivity. The spatial distribution of seasonal rainfall erosivity exhibited clustering tendencies, except spring erosivity with Moran’s I and Z values of 0.1 and 1.04, respectively. The spatial distribution of monthly rainfall erosivity presented clustered patterns in January–March and July–October as well as random patterns in the remaining months. The temporal trend of mean rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province showed no statistically significant trend at the annual, seasonal, and monthly scales. However, at each station, 1 out of 25 stations exhibited a statistically significant trend at the annual scale; 4 stations located around the Pearl River Delta presented significant trends in summer at the seasonal scale; significant trends were observed in March (increasing trends at 3 stations), June (increasing trends at 4 stations located in the Beijiang River Basin), and October (decreasing trends at 4 stations) at the monthly scale. In accordance with the mean annual rainfall over Guangdong Province, the mean annual rainfall erosivity showed two significant periodicities of 3–6 and 10–12 years at a confidence level of 95 %. In conclusion, the results of this study provide insights into the spatiotemporal variation in rainfall erosivity in Guangdong Province and support for agrolandscape planning and water and soil conservation efforts in this region.     

Radiation balance at the surface in the city of S?o Paulo, Brazil: diurnal and seasonal variations

The main goal of this work is to describe the diurnal and seasonal variations of the radiation balance components at the surface in the city of S?o Paulo based on observations carried out during 2004. Monthly average hourly values indicate that the amplitudes of the diurnal cycles of net radiation (Q*), downwelling and upwelling shortwave radiation (SW_DW, SW_UP), and longwave radiations (LW_DW, LW_UP) in February were, respectively, 37%, 14%, 19%, 11%, and 5% larger than they were in August. The monthly average daily values indicate a variation of 60% for Q*, with a minimum in June and a maximum in December; 45% for SW_DW, with a minimum in May and a maximum in September; 50% for SW_UP, with a minimum in June and a maximum in September; 13% for LW_DW, with a minimum in July and a maximum in January; and 9% for LW_UP, with a minimum in July and a maximum in February. It was verified that the atmospheric broadband transmissivity varied from 0.36 to 0.57; the effective albedo of the surface varied from 0.08 to 0.10; and the atmospheric effective emissivity varied from 0.79 to 0.92. The surface effective emissivity remained approximately constant and equal to 0.96. The albedo and surface effective emissivity for S?o Paulo agreed with those reported for urban areas in Europe and North America cities. This indicates that material and geometric effects on albedo and surface emissivity in S?o Paulo are similar to ones observed in typical middle latitudes cities. On the other hand, it was found that S?o Paulo city induces an urban heat island with daytime maximum intensity varying from 2.6°C in July (16:00 LT) to 5.5°C in September (15:00 LT). The analysis of the radiometric properties carried out here indicate that this daytime maximum is a primary response to the seasonal variation of daily values of net solar radiation at the surface.     

Analyses on integrated detection of the blizzard process in 19–20 March 2012 in Urumqi,Xinjiang China

Using the multi-source observation data from wind-profiling radar, microwave radiometer, Doppler weather radar, etc. during the blizzard event in 19–20 March 2012 in Urumqi, this paper analyzed the detailed characteristics of the atmospheric dynamics, thermodynamics, intensity and water vapor during the process of this blizzard weather. The findings suggest: (1) in the course of the blizzard weather, the near-surface atmosphere is mainly dominated by northwest airflows, the wind speed and relative humidity increase rapidly, temperature drops and air pressure ascends; (2) the blizzard weather this time is accompanied by cold front system whose entering time is about 16:00 BT 19 March; the shear line that develops from low to high is the position height of the frontal zone, and the variation of the high-level frontal zone directly reflects the altitude and layers where cold and warm air masses interact; (3) the radar equivalent reflectivity factor of the snowstorm process changes within the range 8–25 dBZ_e and its large-value zone is correlated well with the blizzard duration, the height for the formation of rain (snow) particles and the snow intensity; (4) before the occurrence of the blizzard, atmosphere is in the state of high temperature and high humidity, the maximum vapor density is around 6 g m^?3, water vapor mainly stays under the height of 5,000 m; affected by cold front system, cold airs gradually lift warm and moist airs so that the vapor condenses and deposits into water drops and snow particles, forming the snowstorm in the end.     

Changing structure of the precipitation process during 1960–2005 in Xinjiang, China

Using daily precipitation data spanning 1960–2005 from 51 meteorological stations in Xinjiang province, China, spatial and temporal changes in consecutive maximum wet days in the year, summer, and winter were investigated. Fifteen precipitation extreme indices, which reflect the attributes of consecutive maximum wet days, were defined, and the modified Mann–Kendall test was applied to detect the tendencies, and changes in the indices were evaluated through linear regression with the F test. Results showed that: (1) two consecutive wet days occurred most frequently in the year and summer, and the fractional contributions and precipitation intensities decreased as the duration increased; in winter, one wet day had the maximum possibility, fractional contributions decreased and intensities increased as the duration increased. (2) The possibility of consecutive wet days which had short durations reduced, while those of long durations increased; annual fractional contributions of short durations decreased, while those of long durations increased; summer and winter fractional contribution of all durations decreased first and then increased; the intensities of all durations increased. (3) The wet tendency was identified in Xinjiang; the wet trend in Southern Xinjiang was more significant than Northern Xinjiang in summer, while in winter the wet tendency in Northern Xinjiang was more pronounced.