Role of the 10–20-Day Oscillation in Sustained Rainstorms over Hainan,China in October 2010

Hainan, an island province of China in the northern South China Sea, experienced two sustained rainstorms in October2010, which were the most severe autumn rainstorms of the past 60 years. From August to October 2010, the most dominant signal of Hainan rainfall was the 10–20-day oscillation. This paper examines the roles of the 10–20-day oscillation in the convective activity and atmospheric circulation during the rainstorms of October 2010 over Hainan. During both rainstorms,Hainan was near the center of convective activity and under the influence of a lower-troposphere cyclonic circulation. The convective center was initiated in the west-central tropical Indian Ocean several days prior to the rainstorm in Hainan. The convective center first propagated eastward to the maritime continent, accompanied by the cyclonic circulation, and then moved northward to the northern South China Sea and South China, causing the rainstorms over Hainan. In addition, the westward propagation of convection from the tropical western Pacific to the southern South China Sea, as well as the propagation farther northward, intensified the convective activity over the northern South China Sea and South China during the first rainstorm.     

PRELIMINARY STUDY OF RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INTERANNUAL VARIATIONS OF SST IN SOUTH CHINA SEA AND TROPICAL INDIAN OCEAN AND SOUTH CHINA SEA MONSOON OUTBREAK

Conclusions are divided regarding the role of the variations of thermodynamics in the monsoon activity for the South China Sea region. In this study, primary eigenvectors are studied for the SSTA from East Asia to the tropical eastern Indian Ocean in May. The results show that temperature anomalies that center on Sumatra are closely related with the outbreak of the South China Sea monsoon. When the SST is warmer (cooler) than average year, it is likely that the monsoon set in late (early). It may be caused by the changes in meridional difference in thermodynamics between the Indochina Peninsula and its southern tropical oceans. Studying the temporal and spatial evolution of primary eigenvector distribution of the SSTA in the South China Sea-tropical eastern Indian Ocean from winter to summer, we find that the temperature anomalies that center around Sumatra in late spring and early summer can be traced back to the variations of the SST fields in the South China Sea in the preceding winter. Being well associated with the outbreak of the South China Sea monsoon, the latter is a signifi-cant index for it. The work helps understanding the atmospheric and oceanic background against which the South China Sea monsoon breaks out and behaves.     

THE CHARACTERISTICS OF TEMPORAL AND SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF TROPICAL CYCLONE FREQUENCIES OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS AFFECTING OCEANIC FACTORS IN THE PAST 50 YEARS

The characteristics of temporal and spatial distribution of tropical cyclone frequencies over the South China Sea areas and its affecting factors in the past 50yrs are analyzed based on typhoon data that provided by CMA and Simple Ocean Data Assimilation (SODA). The results show that the tropical cyclone frequencies from June to October show concentrated geographic distribution, for they mainly distribute over the SCS area from 15 - 20 °N. The characteristics present significant interdecadal changes. The impact of oceanic factors on the tropical cyclone frequencies in the SCS area is mainly realized by La Ni(n)a and La Ni(n)a-like events before 1975 but mainly by El Ni(n)o and El Nifo-like events after 1975.     

近50年南海热带气旋时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子

用中国气象局组织整编的《台风年鉴》资料和全球近表层简易海洋数据同化(SODA)资料,研究了近50年南海海域生成和经过的热带气旋位置点频数的时空分布特征及其海洋影响因子。结果表明,6～10月的热带气旋位置点频数表现出明显的地理分布集聚性特征,主要分布在南海15～22°N海域,并有明显的年代际变化特征。在1975年以前,海洋因子对南海海域生成和经过的热带气旋位置点频数的影响主要以La Nia和类La Nia事件为主,1975年之后以El Nio和类El Nio事件为主。     

海南异常高温的气候特征及其海气背景

分析1961～2001年海南5～7月异常高温频数的气候特征及其影响因子南海海温和北半球500hPa高度场特征,结果表明,5、6月异常高温频数分别存在3馏年和5年左右的显著周期;南海中部海域是影响同期异常高温频数的关键区域;异常高温频数偏多年,欧亚地区500hPa环流特征是中高纬度有阻塞高压存在,西风槽南压,西太平洋副热带高压位置长期偏南、偏西。     

EFFECTS OF SPRING SOIL MOISTURE IN THE INDOCHINA PENINSULA ON SUMMER PRECIPITATION OVER THE SOUTH CHINA SEA AND ITS SURROUNDING AREAS: A SIMULATION STUDY FOR 1999

Using the regional climate model RegCM4.4.5, coupled with the land model CLM4.5, we investigated the effects of springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula on summer precipitation over the South China Sea and its surrounding areas in 1999. Results have indicated that there exists positive correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the western Pacific Ocean and negative correlation between soil moisture and summer precipitation over the eastern Indian Ocean. Summer precipitation in the South China Sea and its surrounding areas responds to springtime soil moisture in the Indochina Peninsula (the northwest region is critical) because general atmospheric circulation is sensitive to the near-surface thermodynamic state. Increased (decreased) soil moisture would result in decreased (increased) local surface temperatures. Latitudinal, small-scale land–sea thermal differences would then result in northeasterly wind (southwesterly wind) anomalies in the upper layer and southwesterly wind (northeasterly wind) anomalies in the lower layer, which strengthen (weaken) monsoon development. As a result, precipitation would enter the Western Pacific region earlier (later), and water vapor over the eastern Indian Ocean would enter the South China Sea earlier (later), causing a precipitation reduction (increase) in the eastern Indian Ocean and increase (reduction) in the Western Pacific.     

西太平洋副高与ENSO的关系及其对福建雨季降水分布的影响

用低阶大气环流谱模式就前期冬春季南海-热带东印度洋(10 oN～15 oS, 90～120 o E) 海温异常对南海夏季风的影响进行了数值试验。结果表明, 当南海-热带东印度洋海温异常偏暖时,其南北两侧大气低层出现异常气旋性环流,高层出现异常反气旋性环流,其东西两侧, 在南海-热带西太平洋大气低层出现强大的异常辐合,高层出现强大的异常辐散;在热带西印度洋大气低层为明显的辐散,高层为明显的辐合,得到了与Gill理论相一致的结论。此时大气低层赤道两侧异常气旋性环流阻挡了赤道索马里越赤道SW气流进入南海, 加强了赤道西风, 并明显减弱了澳大利亚越赤道SW气流,菲律宾以东的异常反气旋性环流加强了西太平洋副热带高压, 使其位置偏南偏西, 同时大气高层印度洋上空的异常东风加强了南亚高压, 从而导致南海夏季风强度减弱, 爆发可能推迟。在南海-热带东印度洋海温异常偏冷时,大气低层赤道两侧异常反气旋性环流减弱了赤道索马里越赤道SW气流, 加强了澳大利亚越赤道SW气流,菲律宾东北部的异常气旋性环流不利于其东侧的副热带高压发展, 同时大气高层印度洋上空的异常西风减弱南亚高压强度,有利于南海夏季风加强, 爆发可能提前。     

影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区及机制初探

利用1958—2011年NCEP/ NCAR再分析资料和ERSST资料,采用Lanczos时间滤波器、相关分析、回归分析、合成分析和交叉检验等方法,研究了影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区海温异常的来源与可能机制。结果表明,前冬(12—2月)热带西南印度洋和热带西北太平洋是影响南海夏季风爆发年际变化的关键海区。冬季热带西南印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的异常增暖是由前一年夏季El Ni?o早爆发(强印度季风异常驱动的行星尺度东-西向环流)触发、热带印度洋(西北太平洋)局地海气正反馈过程引起并维持到春季。冬季热带西北太平洋反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)及印度洋(热带西北太平洋)的暖海区局地海气相互作用使得印度洋(热带西北太平洋)海温异常维持到春末。春季,逐渐加强北移到10 °N附近的低层大气对北印度洋(热带西北太平洋)暖海温异常响应的东风急流(异常西风)及南海-热带西北太平洋维持的反气旋性环流(气旋性环流)异常,使得南海夏季风晚(早)爆发。      

海洋模式对1995年5月南海AXBT海温资料的同化分析

利用美国普林斯顿大学海洋模式 (POM )对 1995年 5月南海AXBT海洋观测资料和MISST卫星观测的海面温度进行模式四维同化分析研究。POM模式同化处理使用最优插值分析与逼近方法 ,从模式积分到第 4年开始 ,使用COADS气候平均风应力场、净热通量场强迫海洋 ,从第 5年 5月开始加入 1995年 5月的MISST和AXBT资料同化积分 30d ,然后对同化结果进行分析。结果表明 ,资料同化可以改进模式对温度场的预报 ,也可改进模式对海流的模拟。分析结果还显示 ,1995年 5月南海浅层有暖涡和冷涡形成     

我国华南3月份降水异常的可能影响因子分析

利用1951～2005年华南地区3月份的降水资料、NOAA海温资料、Ni?o3.4指数和NCEP再分析资料,分析了华南3月份降水异常与同期环流场、全球海温场的关系,从环流和海温的角度揭示了华南3月份降水异常的可能原因。结果表明,当华南3月份降水偏多(少)时,在对流层中低层,北太平洋海区存在气旋(反气旋)性环流异常,西太平洋及南海海面上存在反气旋(气旋)性环流异常,这样的环流异常有利(不利)于东南暖湿气流与北方东部异常冷空气在华南地区形成水汽辐合,导致降水显著增多(减少)。进一步的分析表明,ENSO和北印度洋及南海附近海温是影响华南3月份降水异常的重要外强迫因子,ENSO对华南3月降水异常的影响是通过影响春季西太平洋副热带高压和低层风场异常实现的,而北印度洋及南海附近海温对华南3月降水异常的影响则是通过垂直环流场异常和低层风场以及西太平洋副热带高压异常来实现的。     

A CLIMATOLOGY OF DEEP CONVECTION OVER SOUTH CHINA AND THE ADJACENT WATERS DURING SUMMER

Due to the higher temporal and spatial resolution and the better integrality of long-term satellite infrared(IR) Brightness Temperature(TBB) data,a climatology of deep convection during summer over South China and the adjacent waters is presented in this paper based on the 1-hourly infrared IR TBB data during June-August of 1996-2007(except 2004).The results show that the geographic distribution of deep convection denoted by TBB ≤-52℃ over South China and the adjacent waters are basically consistent with previous statistical results based on surface thunderstorm observations and low-orbit satellite lightning observations.The monthly,ten-day,five-day and diurnal variations of deep convection in this region are focused on in this paper.There are 5 active deep-convection areas in June-August.The monthly variations of the deep convection are closely associated with the large-scale atmospheric circulations.The deep convection over the land areas of South China is more active in June while that over the South China Sea is more active in July and August.The development of deep convection is prominently intermittent and its period is about 3 to 5 five-day periods.However,the deep convection over the coastal areas in South China remains more active during summer and has no apparent intermittence.The ten-day and five-day variations of deep convection show that there are different variations of deep convection over different areas in South China and the adjacent waters.The tendency of deep convection over the land areas of South China is negatively correlated with that over the South China Sea.The diurnal variations of deep convection show that the sea-land breeze,caused by the thermal differences between land and sea,and the mountain-valley breeze,caused by the thermal differences between mountains and plains or basins,cause deep convection to propagate from sea to land in the afternoon and from land to sea after midnight,and the convection over mountains propagates from mountains to plains after midnight.The different diurnal variations of deep convection over different underlying surfaces show that not only there are general mountainous,marine and multi-peak deep convection,but also there is longer-duration deep convection over coastal areas and other deep convection triggered and maintained by larger-scale weather systems in South China during summer.     

QuikSCAT卫星散射计矢量风检验及南海月平均风场特征分析

采用中国科学院南海海洋研究所2008年建设的,西沙海洋观测研究站上的自动气象站实测数据,对亚太数据研究中心提供的近实时QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料(2008年4月6日—12月31日)进行了检验和统计特征分析,得出:这两者风速的相关系数为0.86,平均偏差为-1.50 m/s,均方根误差为1.71 m/s,表明QuikSCAT卫星遥感风场资料在南海具有很高的适用性。在此基础上,利用QuikSCAT卫星遥感的月平均风场资料分析了南海月平均风场特征。结果表明:(1)南海季风10月到次年3月盛行东北风,6—8月盛行西南风,4、5、9月为季风转换季节;(2)存在两个平均风速大值中心,一个位于南海南部(10°N,108°E)附近,另一个位于台湾海峡附近,其位置和强度会随着季节变化而变动。     

江淮流域两次中尺度对流涡旋的结构特征研究

对2003、2007年江淮梅雨期的中尺度对流涡旋（MCV）进行了统计分析,结果表明我国梅雨锋上MCV活跃,这些MCV与强降水有关。2003、2007年江淮梅雨期有9个MCV发生,大多数的MCV发生在32°N～35°N之间的江苏境内。采用ARPS（Advanced Regional Prediction System）的资料分析系统（ADAS）和WRF模式模拟了2个MCV的发展过程,并使用数值模拟结果分析了它们的结构特征。MCV一般发生在强对流系统的北侧,其涡旋环流一般在600 hPa以下,对应涡旋区域对流层高层为强辐散,涡度最强的中心在对流层中层,但正涡度区可伸展到300 hPa。初始阶段MCV的中心为上升运动和中性层结,成熟阶段MCV的中心转为下沉运动,同时其南侧有新的对流发生。发展型和不发展型的MCV对比发现,涡旋对流层高层有涡度增加以及二次对流的潜热释放多,可能是发展型MCV维持时间较长的原因。此外,MCV发展过程中南侧急流的增强对MCV中对流的触发和维持有一定作用。     

2017年春季海洋天气评述

2017年春季（3—5月）大气环流特征为：北半球极涡呈单极型分布,主体位于北冰洋上空,中高纬西风带呈5波型分布。3月,地面冷高压偏强,冷空气活动频繁。4月,环流由纬向型向经向型逐渐调整,冷空气势力减弱。5月,东北气旋明显加强,冷暖势力相当,入海气旋增多。春季,我国近海海域主要有16次8级以上大风过程,其中冷空气大风过程有7次,冷空气和温带气旋共同影响的大风过程有1次,入海温带气旋过程有4次,东北冷涡影响大风过程有3次,强对流导致雷暴大风过程1次;且有8次明显的浪高在2 m以上的大浪过程。春季共有6次比较明显的海雾过程,分别为3月1次、4月2次、5月3次。西北太平洋和南海共生成1个台风“梅花”和1个热带低压,其他各大洋共有热带气旋15个,分别为大西洋1个、东太平洋1个、南太平洋5个、南印度洋6个、北印度洋2个。     

A Note on the South China Sea Shallow Interocean Circulation

1. IntroductionThe South China Sea (SCS) has many channelsconnecting with the outer oceans/seas (Fig. 1). Thewidest and deepest channel is the Luzón Strait, whichis the main entrance to the SCS from the WesternPacific Ocean, having a sill depth of about 2500 m.On the north, the Taiwan Strait connects with theEast China Sea, with a sill depth of about 70 m. Inthe vicinity of Mindoro Island, there are a numberof channels connecting the SCS with the Sulu Sea.The main channel is the M…     

江淮流域梅雨期降水的空间非均匀分布与前期海温的关系

利用中国气象局提供的1978-2007年全国753站逐日降水资料、NECP/NCAR提供的逐日再分析资料和NOAA提供的第2套扩展重建海温资料,从区域整体角度确定了近30 a（1978-2007年）江淮流域梅雨期.采用EOF（empirical orthogonal function,经验正交函数）分析,讨论了江淮流域梅雨期降水空间非均匀分布特征,着重研究了影响江淮梅雨空间非均匀分布的前期海温关键区及关键时段.结果表明：全区一致梅雨旱涝与前期冬季北太平洋鄂霍次克海附近的海温异常有密切的联系.当前期冬季该海域海温偏高时,冬季风偏弱,对应后期梅雨一致偏涝,反之则偏旱.5月南海至台湾和菲律宾以东附近海温偏低,江淮流域梅雨量偏多,反之则偏少.梅雨的南北反相分布与前期秋冬季中印度洋的海温有非常密切的关系,当前一年10月至当年1月中印度洋海温偏高时,梅雨期850 hPa江淮之间易形成切变线,有利于梅雨区“南旱北涝”,反之则“南涝北旱”.梅雨的东西反相分布与前期秋、冬季热带中东太平洋的海温关系密切,ENSO事件有可能通过影响西太平洋副热带高压的东西位置,从而引起东亚大气环流异常,导致梅雨东西分布反相.前期秋季和冬季热带中东太平洋海温偏高年（对应ENSO暖事件）,西太副高位置偏西,有利于梅雨区“东旱西涝”,反之则“东涝西旱”.     

关于亚洲夏季风爆发及北半球季节突变的物理机理的诊断分析:Ⅰ季风爆发的阶段性特征

该工作将亚洲季风区作为一个复杂的海-陆-气耦合系统,来深入考察季风区海-气、陆-气相互作用的基本事实和物理过程,探讨它们在决定亚洲季风爆发及北半球行星尺度大气环流的季节突变的物理机理。本文是系列文章的第一篇,着重研究亚洲夏季风爆发的区域性和阶段性特征,以及过渡季节热带、副热带地区海-气、陆-气相互作用的基本事实,初步分析了它们之间的联系。研究表明,热带季风对流于4月底到5月初越过赤道进入北半球,首先出现在孟加拉湾东部-中南半岛西南部地区,然后于5月中旬和6月上旬末分别出现在南海和印度半岛地区,呈阶段性爆发的特征。季风对流在孟加拉湾东部-中南半岛西南部地区爆发阶段,在大气环流变化和对流活动中心位置出现区别于南海季风和印度季风爆发的特征。通过对地表感热通量和海表潜热通量的分析,表明热带海洋上海表感热通量甚小于海表潜热通量,南海季风爆发时期印度洋上海表潜热通量显著增大,印度季风爆发后海表潜热通量的高值中心在孟加拉湾和阿拉伯海上建立起来。印度洋上低层增强的过赤道气流引起的强烈的海-气相互作用导致海表水汽的大量蒸发,并通过其输送作用,为季风对流的爆发提供了充足的水汽来源。过渡季节在副热带地区(沿27.5～37.5°N纬带上), 青藏高原和西太平洋上地(海)表感热通量和潜热通量均有迅速的季节变化性, 但趋势相反。当青藏高原上地表感热通量和潜热通量呈阶段性的显著加大, 西太平洋上海表感热通量和潜热通量迅速减小。这种大陆和海洋对大气加热的显著的季节化的差异, 影响着大气环流的季节转变。     

Uganda rainfall variability and prediction

This study analyzes large-scale controls on Uganda’s rainfall. Unlike past work, here, a May–October season is used because of the year-round nature of agricultural production, vegetation sensitivity to rainfall, and disease transmission. The Uganda rainfall record exhibits steady oscillations of ～3 and 6 years over 1950–2013. Correlation maps at two-season lead time resolve the subtropical ridge over global oceans as an important feature. Multi-variate environmental predictors include Dec–May south Indian Ocean sea surface temperature, east African upper zonal wind, and South Atlantic wind streamfunction, providing a 33% fit to May–Oct rainfall time series. Composite analysis indicates that cool-phase El Niño Southern Oscillation supports increased May–Oct Uganda rainfall via a zonal overturning lower westerly/upper easterly atmospheric circulation. Sea temperature anomalies are positive in the east Atlantic and negative in the west Indian Ocean in respect of wet seasons. The northern Hadley Cell plays a role in limiting the northward march of the equatorial trough from May to October. An analysis of early season floods found that moist inflow from the west Indian Ocean converges over Uganda, generating diurnal thunderstorm clusters that drift southwestward producing high runoff.     

南海-西太平洋春季对流10~30天振荡强度对南海夏季风爆发早晚的影响

采用NCEP再分析资料,揭示了南海-西太平洋春季对流存在显著的10~30天振荡周期。在年际尺度上,南海-西太平洋春季对流10~30天振荡强度（简称SCSWP_SISO）与南海夏季风爆发日期存在显著的负相关关系。当春季菲律宾和西太平洋海温偏高、赤道太平洋中部及以东地区海温偏低时,索马里、110 °E越赤道气流会加强,南海-西太平洋偏西风加强,产生异常气旋性环流,垂直上升运动增强,水汽异常偏多,东西风切变增强,有利于SCSWP_SISO增强。而SCSWP_SISO增强时,有由南往北、自西向东的异常气旋传播,从而减弱低层副热带高压使之较早撤出南海,南海夏季风得以较早爆发。反之亦然。在不同的年代际背景下,SCSWP_SISO经历了偏弱、较弱和偏强的变化,但影响其变化的因子并不完全一致。在第一阶段（1958—1976年）,主导因子是南海-西太平洋冷的海温与异常下沉运动、异常减弱的水汽-对流条件。在第二阶段（1977—1993年）,主导因子为中东太平洋异常偏冷的海温以及局地异常减弱的风场垂直切变。在第三阶段（1994—2011年）,主导因子为热带海温的整体偏暖、风场垂直切变的增强以及水汽-对流的加强。但随着SCSWP_SISO的年代际增强,其与南海夏季风爆发日期的相关关系却呈现下降趋势。      

东南沿海地区降水与全球海温变化的关系

为了解近50年来东南沿海地区降水与海温变化的关系,对该地区降水与全球海表温度进行了奇异值分解（SVD）。结果表明：印度洋、南海及赤道东太平洋地区是对东南沿海地区降水有影响的关键区域。东南沿海地区秋冬季的降水总体上来说对前期海温变化的响应不敏感,而东南沿海地区夏季降水受前期海温的影响较为明显,尤其是上年夏季北印度洋、南海地区海温的变化对当年降水有明显影响。因此,在预测东南沿海地区夏季降水时应该重点考虑上年夏季北印度洋及南海地区海温的变化情况。