岩石分形断裂的统计理论

本文研究了岩石分形断裂的统计理论.认为岩石断裂是岩石内部微裂缝成核、形成和传播的非平衡过程,导出了描述这个过程的微分方程.运用位错塞积成核机理,得到了岩石发生分形断裂的微裂缝大小的统计分布函数和平均长大速率.从理论上得出了岩石非弹性体积应变与微裂缝数目成正比,从而解释了实验室研究的结果.另外发现岩石的分维是决定岩石脆性的一个重要因素,分维值愈小,岩石愈脆.但岩石的分维值与岩石强度无明显关系.最后,从微裂缝大小的统计分布函数出发,导出了b值与岩石分维值的关系.     

Fractal analysis of 2-D fracture networks of geothermal reservoirs in south-western Turkey

Natural fracture patterns of producing geothermal formations in south-western Turkey are mapped at different scales. The fractal dimensions of different fracture network properties, such as spatial distribution, density, connectivity, orientation, and length are measured by different methods. Analysis of the natural fracture patterns from giga to microscales identifies the descending behavior of box-counting fractal dimension with respect to the scale. It is observed that the fracture networks represent scale-invariant properties, but fractal dimensions might notably differ when the mass dimension is measured applying different methods. Anisotropic nature of fracture networks is also included in the fractal analysis.     

基于三参量威布尔分布的潜在震源区强震危险性估计

本文提出了一种基于三参量威布尔分布模型估计潜在震源区强震危险性的方法。选择日本东海-南海地震带为潜在震源区,分别基于强震发震时间间隔服从二参量和三参量的威布尔分布,估计该区强震危险性,结果表明三参量威布尔分布的拟合效果优于二参量威布尔分布。选择马尼拉海沟俯冲带为潜在震源区,基于三参量威布尔分布估计该区强震危险性,结果显示未来10、30和50年该区强震（M≧7.5）复发概率分别为62%、82%和89%,最短发震时间间隔估计为1.70年。     

Using the Weibull distribution to improve the description of riverine wood loads

Reporting uncertainty in environmental measurements and estimates is important for cross‐comparison and inter‐comparison of sites and other spatial units. One such measure is the load of large in‐stream wood in river systems. In this paper we propose the use of the Weibull distribution to describe the central tendency and variability of wood loads along a river reach. We illustrate the link between the average wood load and the central tendency or scale parameter of the Weibull distribution. The shape of the Weibull distribution is strongly related to the ability of rivers to transport and rearrange the wood in a reach. We use six Victorian rivers to test the fit of the Weibull distribution, showing that the Weibull is a useful and flexible distribution that provides common reporting metrics useful for future studies. Using common reporting metrics provides a stronger tool for comparisons of wood loads between rivers and with reaches. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

中强地震时间间隔威布尔分布的预报应用

威布尔分布是一种常用的分布函数 ,已被广泛地应用于地震活动性的研究中。用威布尔分布的理论建立了江苏及邻区中强地震时间间隔威布尔分布的模型。对未来几年江苏省 5 .0级以上地震发生的概率作了预测。     

甘肃北山花岗岩裂隙几何学特征研究及岩石质量初探

文中以甘肃北山花岗岩中发育的构造裂隙(主要指节理)为研究对象,通过野外裂隙调查,应用传统的概率统计方法与分形几何学理论,利用Mapinfo,ArcGIS平台进行裂隙几何学参数(方位、长度、密度等)的统计、计算和裂隙网络的空间结构分析,研究花岗岩岩体中裂隙的几何学特征。并以此为基础,对甘肃北山花岗岩岩体质量优劣进行初步评价。结果表明:在10～200cm范围内,裂隙网络是分形的;5个测点裂隙网络的分维值分别是1.636,1.548,1.596,1.724,1.604。分维数D不仅能刻画岩体中结构面发育的数量,而且能反映结构面在岩体中分布的均匀程度和交切方式。因此,可以表征岩体的质量优劣,对岩体质量进行分级。按照分维所划分的岩体质量分级,北山花岗岩属于裂隙较发育、岩体质量等级一般的岩体     

Maximum product of spacings estimators for the generalized pareto and log-logistic distributions

The maximum product of spacings (MPS) method is discussed from the standpoint of information theory. MPS parameter and quantile estimates for the generalized Pareto distribution and the two parameter log-logistic distribution are compared with the maximum likelihood(ML) and probability weighted moment (PWM) estimates.     

逾渗与岩石破裂的计算机模拟研究

用计算机模拟方法研究了岩石破裂的逾渗模型，给出了在微裂隙随机分布情况下破裂集团的分布图象、破裂集团的大小分布规律、总破裂集团数、集团平均大小、ｂ值、逾渗分维Ｄ及临界情形。所得结果与其他模型和实验基本一致，表明通渗模型是描述岩石破裂扩展演化过程的一种较合适的模型。还发现了岩石破裂过程存在的两个转折点，深入研究这两个转折点附近岩石的宏观性质，可为探索地震孕育演化过程的前兆性质提供依据。     

Two-phase flow properties of a horizontal fracture: The effect of aperture distribution

A systematic numerical method has been presented to investigate the constitutive relationships between two-phase flow properties of horizontal fractures and aperture distributions. Based on fractal geometry, single rough-walled fractures are generated numerically by modified successive random addition (SRA) method and then aperture distributions with truncated Gaussian distribution are formed by shear displacement between lower and upper surfaces. (The truncated Gaussian distribution is used to describe aperture evolution under different normal stresses.) According to the assumption of two-dimensional porous media and local parallel plate model, invasion percolation approach is employed to model the two-phase flow displacement (imbibition) in generated horizontal fractures, in which capillary forces are dominant over viscous and gravity forces. For truncated Gaussian distributions, constitutive relationships from numerical simulation are compared to closed-form relationships and a good agreement is obtained. The simulation results indicate strong phase interference with the sum of two phase relative permeability values being less than one in the intermediate saturations. It is found that fracture properties related to residual saturations depend on spatial correlation of aperture distributions. Based on the simulation results, we proposed an empirical relationship between the fracture residual-saturation-rated parameters and the corresponding aperture distributions.     

福建漳州、华安、龙岩地区地震时间分布结构信息维的特征

岩石破裂实验，地球岩石层断裂构造运动，地震孕育、发生和发展过程等研究表明，地震活动的时间、空间和强度分布特征具有分形结构。作为一种分维理论的应用，本文利用厦门数字化地震遥测台网的数据，采用信息的分析方法，对福建省的地震多发区-漳州、华安、龙岩地区的地震活动进行了分析和研究，讨论了信息维随时间变化的特征。     

The fractal geometry of flow paths in natural fractures in rock and the approach to percolation

The distributions of contact areas in single, natural fractures in quartz monzonite (Stripa granite) are found to have fractal dimensions which decrease fromD=2.00 to values nearD=1.96 as stress normal to the fractures is increased from 3 MPa up to 85 MPa. The effect of stress on fluid flow is studied in the same samples. Fluid transport through a fracture depends on two properties of the fracture void space geometry. the void aperture; and the tortuosity of the flow paths, determined through the distribution of contact area. Each of these quantities change under stress and contribute to changes observed in the flow rate. A general flow law is presented which separates these different effects. The effects of tortuosity on flow are largely governed by the proximity of the flow path distribution to a percolation threshold. A fractal model of correlated continuum percolation is presented which quantitatively reproduces the flow path geometries. The fractal dimension in this model is fit to the measured fractal dimensions of the flow systems to determine how far the flow systems are above the percolation threshold.     

Models for extremes using the extended three-parameter Burr XII system with application to flood frequency analysis / Modèles d’extrêmes utilisant le système Burr XII étendu à trois paramètres et application à l’analyse fréquentielle des crues

Abstract

Abstract A new theoretically-based distribution in frequency analysis is proposed. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution includes the generalized Pareto distribution, which is used to model the exceedences over threshold; log-logistic distribution, which is also advocated in flood frequency analysis; and Weibull distribution, which is a part of the generalized extreme value distribution used to model annual maxima as special cases. The extended Burr distribution is flexible to approximate extreme value distribution. Note that both the generalized Pareto and generalized extreme value distributions are limiting results in modelling the exceedences over threshold and block extremes, respectively. From a modelling perspective, generalization might be necessary in order to obtain a better fit. The extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is therefore a meaningful candidate distribution in the frequency analysis. Maximum likelihood estimation for this distribution is investigated in the paper. The use of the extended three-parameter Burr XII distribution is demonstrated using data from China.     

Impact of fractal characteristics on evaporation and infiltration in unsaturated heterogeneous soils

ABSTRACT

In this study, an approach is developed to investigate the impact of fractal characteristics of unsaturated soil between the water table and land surface on the steady-state evaporation and infiltration across a heterogeneous landscape. The soil domain is conceptualized as a collection of stream tubes of soils and the particle diameters in various stream tubes follow a fractal distribution. The saturated hydraulic conductivity of each stream tube is related to the representative particle diameter in the tube. The effective specific discharge is then integrated from the specific discharge for each stream tube and the fractal distribution. The effective evaporation and infiltration in unsaturated soils increase with the fractal dimension. The ratio of minimum over maximum diameters does not significantly affect the specific discharge in the fractal soil. The specific discharge in unsaturated fractal soils calculated by using the simple average particle diameter mostly over-predicts the actual effective specific discharge.     

Fractal dimension of fault systems in Japan: Fractal structure in rock fracture geometry at various scales

Based on fault maps, whether or not the fracture geometry of rocks is self-similar, was examined by using a box-counting algorithm. The statistical self-similarity (fractal structure) of the fault fracture systems holds well at the scale of about 2 to 20 km. The fractal dimension in Japan varied from 1.05 to 1.60. The fractal dimension is about 1.5–1.6 at the central part of the Japan Arc, and decreases with distance from the center. At a smaller scale, the fractal structure also holds well in the rock fracture geometry. The fractal dimension of the North Izu Peninsula fault system (branching faults) is 1.49 at the scale of 0.625 to 10 km, the fractal dimension of rock fracture geometry at the scale order of 10^–1 to 10^–2 meters is about 1.49–1.61. The upper limit of the fractal dimension of rock fracture geometry is about 1.6, judging from the estimation of fractal dimension on actual fracture geometry of rocks. This value may impose a restraint on modeling of faulting and the fracture process of rocks.     

地震震级和地震间隔时间的统计分布研究

依据最大熵原理求解出地震震级和地震间隔时间的最可几分布和威布尔（Weibull)分布。以甘肃天祝为例，应用极值分布模型、对数正态分布模型和威尔分布模型以及K－S检验和直方图检验2种方法，分别对该地区实际地震数据进行检验。所得结果与理论求解结果一致。     

On the fractal dimension of the fallout deposits: A case study of the 79 A.D. Plinian eruption at Mt. Vesuvius

We investigated the existence of a fractal law (power law) distribution of size pyroclastic fragments erupted during the fallout phase of the 79 A.D. Plinian eruption at Mt. Vesuvius. In particular, we performed a particle size distribution analysis on 18 white and grey pumice samples collected in six sites distributed in the SW sector of Mt. Vesuvius. Our measurements show that the fragmentation of samples in the investigated range (from 32 mm to 850 μm) follows a power law, guaranteeing the scale invariance of the process. The relationship frequency-size distribution of the fragments is verified independently from the nature (i.e., pumices and lithics) and stratigraphic height of the considered samples in the pyroclastic deposit. Therefore, the fractal fragmentation theory can be indicated for evaluating the relationship between the intensity of fragmentation (fractal dimension D) and eruption energy. In this way the apparent chaotic distribution of the particles in the fallout deposits hides a self-organized complexity revealed by the retrieved power law distribution. We further remark that a key aspect of our analysis is the founded evidence that the fractal dimension of the lithics is systematically greater than that of the pumices.     

中国海域及邻区地震时间分布特征研究

地震时间分布特征研究是进行地震预测和地震危险性分析的重要基础.以中国海域统一地震目录为基础资料,以指数分布模型、伽马分布模型、威布尔分布模型、对数正态分布模型以及布朗过程时间分布(BPT)模型为目标模型,采用极大似然法估算模型参数.根据赤池信息准则(AIC)、贝叶斯信息准则(BIC)以及K-S检验结果确定能够描述海域地...     

Identification of uncertainty in low flow frequency analysis using Bayesian MCMC method

This study employs the Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method with the Metropolis–Hastings algorithm and maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) using a quadratic approximation of the likelihood function for the evaluation of uncertainties in low flow frequency analysis using a two‐parameter Weibull distribution. The two types of prior distributions, a non‐data‐based distribution and a data‐based distribution using regional information collected from neighbouring stations, are used to establish a posterior distribution. Eight case studies using the synthetic data with a sample size of 100, generated from two‐parameter Weibull distribution, are performed to compare with results of analysis using MLE and Bayesian MCMC. Also, Bayesian MCMC and MLE are applied to 36 years of gauged data to validate the efficiency of the developed scheme. These examples illustrate the advantages of Bayesian MCMC and the limitations of MLE based on a quadratic approximation. From the point of view of uncertainty analysis, Bayesian MCMC is more effective than MLE using a quadratic approximation when the sample size is small. In particular, Bayesian MCMC method is more attractive than MLE based on a quadratic approximation because the sample size of low flow at the site of interest is mostly not enough to perform the low flow frequency analysis. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

新疆6级以上地震年应变释放的概率分布

研究了新疆及邻近区域内1882—1990年6级以上地震年应变释放及各不同地震活动轮迥中地震年应变释放的概率分布,结果表明:区内6级以上地震年应变释放序列是按能量等级服从韦泊分布的。