Management alternatives to offset climate change effects on Mediterranean fire regimes in NE Spain

Fire regime is affected by climate and human settlements. In the Mediterranean, the predicted climate change is likely to exacerbate fire prone weather conditions, but the mid- to long-term impact of climate change on fire regime is not easily predictable. A negative feedback via fuel reduction, for instance, might cause a non-linear response of burned area to fire weather. Also, the number of fires escaping initial control could grow dramatically if the fire meteorology is just slightly more severe than what fire brigades are prepared for. Humans can directly influence fire regimes through ignition frequency, fire suppression and land use management. Here we use the fire regime model FIRE LADY to assess the impacts of climate change and local management options on number of fires, burned area, fraction of area burned in large fires and forest area during the twenty-first century in three regions of NE Spain. Our results show that currently fuel-humidity limited regions could suffer a drastic shift of fire regime with an up to 8 fold increase of annual burned area, due to a combination of fuel accumulation and severe fire weather, which would result in a period of unusually large fires. The impact of climate change on fire regime is predicted to be less pronounced in drier areas, with a gradual increase of burned area. Local fire prevention strategies could reduce but not totally offset climate induced changes in fire regimes. According to our model, a combination of restoring the traditional rural mosaic and classical fire prevention would be the most effective strategy, as a lower ignition frequency reduces the number of fires and the creation of agricultural fields in marginal areas reduces their extent.     

重庆地区油菜精细化气候区划研究

重庆市有适宜油菜生长发育的优越气候,在海拔高度、气温、降水、日照等多种气象因子影响下,生长分布有一定规律。本文选取1971~2000年气候数据,基于GIS进行精细化空间分析,同时结合实地调研等相关资料,对油菜进行气候区划,划分出一年二到三熟光照较丰油菜栽培区、一年二到三熟光照一般油菜栽培区、一年二熟光照较丰油菜栽培区、一年二熟光照一般油菜栽培区、一年一到二熟光照较丰油菜栽培区、一年一到二熟光照一般油菜栽培区和气候冷凉阴湿零星栽培区等7个不同类型栽培区,为重庆地区的油菜种植提供客观了参考依据。     

Possible solar recharging of the earth's electric field

Summary Some of the materials comprising the earth's surface such as Fe₂O₃, TiO₂ and ZnO can be semiconducting, and with a shallow layer of water laying above to serve as the electrolyte, may constitute a rudimentary photo-electrochemical cell. We investigated the possiblity that holes created inside the semiconductor by sunlight could pull electrons from the atmosphere by inducing a lower redox potential in the water. The result, solar recharging of the earth's electric field, may be a non-negligible contributor to the entire recharging process.     

内蒙古大兴安岭林区雷击火灾气候成因分析

利用常规天气图、数值预报产品、卫星云图以及溃变理论的预报工具V-3θ图,对2005年6月30日至7月2日发生在青藏高原东北侧甘肃省区域性持续暴雨天气过程进行了诊断应用综合分析.结果表明:副热带高压西伸北抬外围西南风气流控制青藏高原东北侧,当东北低涡、西风带的冷空气与西南风交汇时,触发强对流;850～200hPa有深厚的水汽层;700 hPa稳定的低涡切变为暴雨提供了强烈持续的辐合上升运动;卫星云图表明持续性暴雨由多个相继生消的中尺度对流系统影响造成的.基于溃变理论的预报方法在西北区域性持续暴雨的起报、结束及落区有很好的预测能力.     

浅谈恒山黄芪生长的气象条件

本文论述了恒山黄芪生长的不同时期的气象条件,分析了黄芪最佳的有效用光群体结构及立体应用,阐述了气温、温差、积温、降水适宜黄芪生长发育的气象指标。     

Application of a semi-spectral cloud water parameterization to cooling tower plumes simulations

In order to simulate the plume produced by large natural draft cooling towers, a semi-spectral warm cloud parameterization has been implemented in an anelastic and non-hydrostatic 3D micro-scale meteorological code. The model results are compared to observations from a detailed field experiment carried out in 1980 at Bugey (location of an electrical nuclear power plant in the Rhône valley in East Central France) including airborne dynamical and microphysical measurements. Although we observe a slight overestimation of the liquid-water content, the results are satisfactory for all the 15 different cases simulated, which include different meteorological conditions ranging from low wind speed and convective conditions in clear sky to high wind and very cloudy. Such parameterization, which includes semi-spectral determination for droplet spectra, seems to be promising to describe plume interaction with atmosphere especially for aerosols and cloud droplets.     

The relationship between extreme weather events and crop losses in central Taiwan

The frequency of extreme weather events, which cause severe crop losses, is increasing. This study investigates the relationship between crop losses and extreme weather events in central Taiwan from 2003 to 2015 and determines the main factors influencing crop losses. Data regarding the crop loss area and meteorological information were obtained from government agencies. The crops were categorised into the following five groups: ‘grains’, ‘vegetables’, ‘fruits’, ‘flowers’ and ‘other crops’. The extreme weather events and their synoptic weather patterns were categorised into six and five groups, respectively. The data were analysed using the z score, correlation coefficient and stepwise regression model. The results show that typhoons had the highest frequency of all extreme weather events (58.3%). The largest crop loss area (4.09%) was caused by two typhoons and foehn wind in succession. Extreme wind speed coupled with heavy rainfall is an important factor affecting the losses in the grain and vegetable groups. Extreme wind speed is a common variable that affects the loss of ‘grains’, ‘vegetables’, ‘fruits’ and ‘flowers’. Consecutive extreme weather events caused greater crop losses than individual events. Crops with long production times suffered greater losses than those with short production times. This suggests that crops with physical structures that can be easily damaged and long production times would benefit from protected cultivation to maintain food security.     

2022年贵州省粮油作物生育期气象条件及其影响分析

为了评估2022年贵州省气象条件对主要粮油作物的影响,该文利用84个观测站的气温、降水、日照3个气象要素的变化特点,结合作物生物学特性及生育期,并与历史同期气象条件进行对比。结果表明：(1)夏收粮油作物播种以来气象条件利大于弊：油菜播期受干旱影响推迟,但生长后期气象条件好于前期,尤其是油菜产量形成关键期光温水匹配较好,利于产量形成及成熟收获。(2)秋粮作物生长期内农业气象条件利弊相当：玉米、水稻等秋收粮食生长季光热条件优良,降水分布不均,水稻生长期前期气象条件好于后期,后期夏伏旱和高温灾害偏重发生,影响总体粒重水平;玉米灌浆期大部地区光温条件优良,利于粒重的形成,收获期晴热少雨利于收晒。因此2022年贵州省粮油作物生长期内气象条件利弊相当,属于正常气候年景。     

Capability of Fengyun-3D Satellite in Earth System Observation

From the viewpoint of earth system science, this paper discusses the observation capability of the second-generation of Chinese polar-orbiting, sun-synchronous operational meteorological satellite observation systems, Fengyun-3(FY-3), based on the function and performance test results from the FY-3 D satellite observation system in orbit. The FY-3 series of satellites have numerous remote sensing instruments and a wide range of imaging and sounding electromagnetic spectrometers onboard. These instruments can obtain reflectivity data for land surface, soil, vegetation,water body, snow cover, ocean color, and sea ice on earth's surface over a wide spectral range, as well as information on the absorption and scattering radiative transfer of molecules and particles(clouds and aerosols) in earth's atmosphere. All of these data can be used to retrieve physical and chemical information about the land, ocean, and atmosphere of the earth system. Comprehensive observation of the earth system by the FY-3 meteorological satellites is preliminarily realized.     

Impacts of Present and Future Climate Variability on Agriculture and Forestry in the Temperate Regions: Europe

Agriculture and forestry will be particularly sensitive to changes in mean climate and climate variability in the northern and southern regions of Europe. Agriculture may be positively affected by climate change in the northern areas through the introduction of new crop species and varieties, higher crop production and expansion of suitable areas for crop cultivation. The disadvantages may be determined by an increase in need for plant protection, risk of nutrient leaching and accelerated breakdown of soil organic matter. In the southern areas the benefits of the projected climate change will be limited, while the disadvantages will be predominant. The increased water use efficiency caused by increasing CO₂ will compensate for some of the negative effects of increasing water limitation and extreme weather events, but lower harvestable yields, higher yield variability and reduction in suitable areas of traditional crops are expected for these areas. Forestry in the Mediterranean region may be mainly affected by increases in drought and forest fires. In northern Europe, the increased precipitation is expected to be large enough to compensate for the increased evapotranspiration. On the other hand, however, increased precipitation, cloudiness and rain days and the reduced duration of snow cover and soil frost may negatively affect forest work and timber logging determining lower profitability of forest production and a decrease in recreational possibilities. Adaptation management strategies should be introduced, as effective tools, to reduce the negative impacts of climate change on agricultural and forestry sectors.     

影响大棚蔬菜的气象灾害变化特点及对策

以河北省沧州为例,采用1970～2005年的气候资料,对影响大棚蔬菜主要生产阶段(10月至翌年3月)的极端最低气温、冬季平均气温、强降温、大雾、寡照、大风、大雪等气象因素进行统计.结果表明:沧州地区极端最低气温、冬季平均气温整体呈上升趋势,大雾在波动中呈现减少的趋势,而大风减少比较突出,都对大棚蔬菜的生长比较有利;寡照灾害呈现增加趋势,特别是20世纪90年代以后增加明显,影响大棚蔬菜的生长发育;强降温及大雪过程变化异常,未来有发展趋势.针对这些气象灾害的变化特点,在大力发展大棚蔬菜的基础上提出了要做好增光、保温工作,加强极端天气气候事件的防御等建议.     

Changes to the drivers of fire weather with a warming climate – a case study of southeast Tasmania

Projected changes to the global climate system have great implications for the incidence of large infrequent fires in many regions. Here we examine the synoptic-scale and local-scale influences on the incidence of extreme fire weather days and consider projections of the large-scale mean climate to explore future fire weather projections. We focus on a case study region with periodic extreme fire dangers; southeast Tasmania, Australia. We compare the performance of a dynamically downscaled regional climate model with Global Climate Model outputs as a tool for examining the local-scale influences while accounting for high regional variability. Many of the worst fires in Tasmania and the southeast Australian region are associated with deep cold fronts and strong prefrontal winds. The downscaled simulations reproduce this synoptic type with greater fidelity than a typical global climate model. The incidence of systems in this category is projected to increase through the century under a high emission scenario, driven mainly by an increase in the temperature of air masses, with little change in the strength of the systems. The regional climate model projected increase in frequency is smaller than for the global climate models used as input, with a large model range and natural variability. We also demonstrate how a blocking Foehn effect and topographic channelling contributed to the extreme conditions during an extreme fire weather day in Tasmania in January 2013. Effects such as these are likely to contribute to high fire danger throughout the century. Regional climate models are useful tools that enable various meteorological drivers of fire danger to be considered in projections of future fire danger.     

影响我国主要粮食作物产量的气象因子研究

通过收集前人主要粮食作物气象产量预报的研究成果，将所得到的资料按作物进行分类，并进行归一化处理，使用系统聚类分析方法，以预报方程中的影响因子为指标，分区找出各区主要粮食作物产量的主、次要影响因子和影响时期，为大范围作物产量预报提供了科学依据。     

郑州地区沙尘暴天气的气候特征分析

利用郑州地区各站近40年的气象资料，分析了郑州地区沙尘暴的气候特征，发现郑州地区沙尘暴天气发生的频率自60年代到90年代呈逐渐减少趋势，但从大尺度背景情况分析，全球增暖不可避免，如不科学做好退耕还林、大范围恢复自然植被、有效地改善生态环境，沙尘暴天气将有可能进一步发展。     

北京夏季强热岛分析及数值模拟研究

应用北京地区20个常规地面气象站、2个自动气象站和中国科学院大气物理研究所325m气象铁塔的资料，对北京2003年7月热岛状况进行了统计分析，发现北京夏季夜间存在强热岛效应，夏季夜间存在强热岛效应的天数占到了1/3，强弱热岛天数合计占到了大约4/5。进一步分析7月1日强热岛特征及其气象影响因子，结果表明：夜间存在强热岛时，郊区所有测站的地面气温都要低于主城区地面气温，城市强热岛的高温中心在天安门和白家庄连线的主城区；白天日照充足的晴夜，日落后城区320m以下低层大气存在逆温和弱的风速，城区地面气温下降速率和幅度均远小于郊区，城市强热岛因此得以形成和维持。日出后至正午，北京北部郊区日照时间比城区长，郊区地面大气得到来自太阳辐射的能量多于城区，而太阳辐射的加热作用使城区低层大气逆温消失，大气稳定度减弱，并使郊区地面气温上升速率和幅度大于城区，最终导致夜间出现的强热岛减弱、消失。此外，应用MM5模式对强热岛进行了初步数值模拟研究，发现在MM5中考虑城市人为热和热储存，可以改善模式对热岛的数值模拟，表明城市人为热和热储存在夏季强热岛的形成中有重要作用。     

鄂西山区烟草气象观测站网设计

烟叶是湖北省西部山区最重要的经济作物,其生长受气象条件影响较大,目前在烟叶种植区建设的气象观测站数量十分有限。该文对湖北省烟区及附近气象观测站分布现状进行分析,并根据烟叶生长习性配置观测要素,确定设计原则。通过对可利用的现有气象观测站的改造,以及采用格点法合理布局新建站点位置,设计了由97个气象观测站组成的湖北省烟草气象观测网,并将在后期通过实地考察,结合站点选址原则进一步修改完善。     

秸秆燃烧对北京秋季气溶胶浓度和短波辐射影响的模拟研究

利用地面细颗粒物（PM2.5）浓度和气象常规观测资料、地基 AERONET观测资料、GFED生物质燃烧排放清单和大气化学—天气耦合模式WRF-Chem,模拟研究了华北地区2014年10月气象要素和大气污染物的时空演变,重点关注北京10月7～11日的一次重霾事件及其天气形势、边界层气象特征、输送路径、PM2.5及其化学成分浓度变化等特征,以及秸秆燃烧对华北和北京地区细颗粒物浓度和地面短波辐射的影响。与观测资料的对比结果显示,模式可以很好地模拟北京地区地面气象要素和PM2.5质量浓度,考虑秸秆燃烧排放源可以明显改进北京PM2.5浓度模拟的准确性,但在重度污染情况下,模式总体上低估气溶胶光学厚度和高估地面短波辐射。10月7～11日北京地区重霾事件主要是不利气象条件下人为污染物累积和区域输送造成,也受到华北地区南部秸秆燃烧的影响。河南北部、河北南部和山东西部大面积秸秆燃烧释放的气态污染物和颗粒物在南风的作用下输送至北京,秸秆燃烧对北京地区地面PM2.5、有机碳（OC）、硝酸盐、铵盐、硫酸盐和黑碳（BC）的平均贡献率分别为24.6%、36.8%、23.2%、22.6%、7.1%和19.8%,秸秆燃烧产生的气溶胶可以导致北京地面平均短波辐射最大减小超过20 W m－2,约占总气溶胶导致地表短波辐射变化的24%。     

我国南方输电线路覆冰极值序列重建试验

基于我国南方有覆冰数据记录的气象站冰厚年极值及同期气象要素观测资料,统计分析多种气象因子对覆冰年极值形成条件频次分布的影响,归纳出了最易于出现覆冰年极值的温度、风速和湿度条件。在此基础上,通过对西南地区威宁、金佛山、峨眉山和三穗4站覆冰年极值与其相应气象变量的进一步分析,建立了覆冰极值序列的回归模型。根据现有气象站电线结冰资料及其对应时段的常规气象要素资料,对气象站电线结冰年极值序列进行重建试验,试验结果表明不同气候背景下覆冰极值序列的回归模型有显著差异。独立样本的交叉检验结果显示,威宁站年极值序列的回归模型效果较理想,重建序列能够较好地模拟覆冰的极值序列。     

Extended time weather forecasts contributes to agricultural productivity estimates

Weather conditions in critical periods of the vegetative crop development influence crop productivity, thus being a basic parameter for crop forecast. Reliable extended period weather forecasts may contribute to improve the estimation of agricultural productivity. The production of soybean plays an important role in the Brazilian economy, because this country is ranked among the largest producers of soybeans in the world. This culture can be significantly affected by water conditions, depending on the intensity of water deficit. This work explores the role of extended period weather forecasts for estimating soybean productivity in the southern part of Brazil, Passo Fundo, and Londrina (State of Rio Grande do Sul and Paraná, respectively) in the 2005/2006 harvest. The goal was to investigate the possible contribution of precipitation forecasts as a substitute for the use of climatological data on crop forecasts. The results suggest that the use of meteorological forecasts generate more reliable productivity estimates during the growth period than those generated only through climatological information.     

Climate change,the monsoon,and rice yield in India

Recent research indicates that monsoon rainfall became less frequent but more intense in India during the latter half of the Twentieth Century, thus increasing the risk of drought and flood damage to the country’s wet-season (kharif) rice crop. Our statistical analysis of state-level Indian data confirms that drought and extreme rainfall negatively affected rice yield (harvest per hectare) in predominantly rainfed areas during 1966–2002, with drought having a much greater impact than extreme rainfall. Using Monte Carlo simulation, we find that yield would have been 1.7% higher on average if monsoon characteristics, especially drought frequency, had not changed since 1960. Yield would have received an additional boost of nearly 4% if two other meteorological changes (warmer nights and lower rainfall at the end of the growing season) had not occurred. In combination, these changes would have increased cumulative harvest during 1966–2002 by an amount equivalent to about a fifth of the increase caused by improvements in farming technology. Climate change has evidently already negatively affected India’s hundreds of millions of rice producers and consumers.