The mechanism of induced seismicity at mosul reservoir based on the first motion analysis

In 1986 shortly after the impounding of Mosul reservoir, shallow earthquakes began occurring in the immediate reservoir vicinity, with magnitudes up to ML 3.0, at rates of up to 3 events per week. These events were almost certainly reservoir-induced and coincided with steadily increasing water levels. Cluster of epicenters was observed in the area located within a complex fault zone called the Sinjar-Dohouk-Kuchuk fault system. The presence of such fault system considers a potential source of earthquakes. A composite fault plane solution, based on first p-wave motion analyses, indicates that the mechanisms of seismicity were right-lateral strike-slip faulting along N44°E plane dipping 58° NW, in conformity with the local tectonics.     

The mechanism of induced seismicity at mosul reservoir based on the first motion analysis

In 1986 shortly after the impounding of Mosul reservoir, shallow earthquakes began occurring in the immediate reservoir vicinity, with magnitudes up to ML 3.0, at rates of up to 3 events per week. These events were almost certainly reservoir-induced and coincided with steadily increasing water levels. Cluster of epicenters was observed in the area located within a complex fault zone called the Sinjar-Dohouk-Kuchuk fault system. The presence of such fault system considers a potential source of earthquakes. A composite fault plane solution, based on first p-wave motion analyses, indicates that the mechanisms of seismicity were right-lateral strike-slip faulting along N44°E plane dipping 58° NW, in conformity with the local tectonics.     

Continued seismic activity at the Koyna reservoir site, India

Following the impounding of the Shivaji Sager Lake in 1962, tremors became prevalent in the Koyna region, considered previously to be aseismic. During ensuing years the tremor frequency appears to have been dependent on the rate of increase of water level, maximum water level reached, and the period for which high levels were retained. This culminated in a burst of seismic activity from September 1967 to January 1968 following the record water levels in the reservoir and included the earthquake of September 13, 1967 with magnitude 5.5 and the damaging December 10, 1967 earthquake of magnitude 6.0. During the next five years water levels were kept low and no significant earthquakes occurred subsequent to the October 29, 1968 earthquake of magnitude 5.

The reservoir was filled to maximum capacity during September 1973 and this was followed by a conspicuous increase in seismic activity which included an earthquake of magnitude 5.1 on October 17, 1973. However, seismic activity during 1973 was much less severe than that of 1967. This relative decrease in seismicity may indicate that (a) the “threshhold level” for relatively large magnitude earthquakes had increased; (b) a major portion of the accumulated strains had been released; and/or (c) the importance of the longer period of high loading in 1967. Similar observations have been made at other seismically active reservoir sites.     

温州珊溪水库诱发地震构造条件

自2002年7月温州珊溪水库首次发生地震后,其地震活动持续至今,但目前人们对水库地震成因了解较少.基于对库区所处的区域地震地质背景、库区地形地貌、岩性及新构造运动特征的分析,采用野外地质调查的方法,获得了库区主要断层的地质特征,并评价了其渗透性.在此基础上,结合地震活动特征及震源机制解的研究成果,探讨了水库地震时间序列及发震机理.结果表明珊溪水库地震活动与库区岩性、断层(尤其是库区内的双溪-焦溪垟断层)及库水特征关系密切.水库地震主要发生在侏罗系凝灰岩夹砂岩、泥岩等隔水性好的层状岩层中,而渗透性较好的双溪-焦溪垟断层结构面则更利于库水下渗,这种岩体结构面组合方式一方面使库水容易沿断层结构面向深部渗透,另一方面断层结构面上的孔隙压力容易升高,因此降低了断层结构面上的正应力,应力平衡被打破,进而诱发地震.在水的渗透和地震活动的相互作用下,水库地震沿双溪-焦溪垟断层(尤其是第三分支断层)从SE向NW持续发生.      

Strong-motion observation of water-induced earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang reservoir in China

The case history and the research work in regard to the water-induced earthquakes at Hsinfengkiang reservoir, 160 km. northeast of Canton, have been reported elsewhere.^[1] The installation of strong-motion seismograph system at the dam site is a component part of the comprehensive scientific program for studying the water-induced earthquakes at this place. The system was in operation after the occurrence of the main shock (Ms= 6.1) in 1962. Since 1966, a number of accelerograms have been obtained, for the aftershocks, on exposed bedrock in the dam site and at different positions on the dam proper, providing useful data for studying the characteristics and the effects of water-induced earthquakes. This paper, as a supplement to the previous report, gives a presentation of such data with preliminary analysis.     

Estimation of Coulomb stress changes and induced earthquake occurrences prediction in the region of Three Gorges Reservoir,China

In the region of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, there has been occurrence of several frequent earthquakes of moderate intensity since reservoir impounding occurred in 2003. These earthquakes are generally believed to be induced by reservoir impoundment and water-level variations. Usually, the geo-stress will change, when natural earthquakes occur. Following this principle, this paper adopted the rate and state theory to simulate and estimate Coulomb stress changes in the TGR region and obtained the pattern of Coulomb stress changes with time and the event sequence as well as the distribution of Coulomb stress changes in space. First, the TGR regional catalogue was analyzed and processed, leading to quantification of the magnitude of completeness and all of the parameters that are used in the stress–seismicity inversion process, including the reference seismicity rates, characteristic relaxation time, fault constitutive parameters, and stress rates. Second, the temporal evolution of the stress changes in different time windows was computed and analyzed, and it was found that there is an association between the Coulomb stress changes and rates of increase in the cumulative number of earthquakes. In addition, the earthquake occurred in November 2008 (M _S = 4.1) was analyzed and attempted to simulate the distribution of stress changes in space through the stress–seismicity inversion model. The results proved that the modeled area coincides with the historical area of earthquakes that occurred after 2008. Finally, a prediction was made about the earthquake productivity rates after 2015, which showed a declining earthquake rate over time that ultimately returned to the background seismicity. This result is essentially in agreement with Omori’s law. To conclude, it is rational to use the stress-inversion method to analyze the relationship between induced earthquake seismicity and local stress changes as well as to simulate the area of earthquake occurrence and productivity rates of reservoir-induced earthquakes.     

Mechanism of Underground Fluid Injection Induced Seismicity and Its Implications for CCS Projects

CO₂ capture and storage projects must consider the potential possibility ofinjection induced seismicity. Moderate earthquakes and strong earthquakes may endanger human life and property, and even felt earthquakes and microquakes also pose a threat to seal integrity of CO₂ reservoir and increase the risk of leakage. Underground fluid injection induced seismicity usually happens in some geoengineering projects such as waste fluid disposal, EOR and EGS, and it occurs when fluid is injected along the fault. Therefore, it can be studied through stress analysis. The density of supercritical CO₂ is smaller than water, which may develop density flow in the deep strata or water-rock interactions in pre-existing structures, and cause the variation in permeability and pressure to induce a seismic activity. In this paper, we reviewed the mechanism of underground fluid injection induced seismicity with the focus of CCS, combined with fluid injection projects and seismic monitoring analysis in both commercial scale and experimental scale, to investigate its impact on the integrity of the cap rock of the reservoir. Finally, we summarized the appropriate site selection, injection methods and monitoring programs to prevent the occurrence of induced seismicity.     

Seismicity changes associated with reservoir loading

Changes in seismic activity have been related to the filling of large reservoirs in over thirty cases. These changes range from variations in the level of micro-earthquake activity detectable only with instruments of high sensitivity to destructive earthquakes with magnitudes greater than 6. On the other hand, the filling of many other large reservoirs has not been accompanied by increased seismicity.

A number of factors may contribute to the generation or absence of post-impounding seismicity. Increased vertical stress due to the load of the reservoir and decreased effective stress due to increased pore pressure can modify the stress regime in the reservoir region. Whether or not these stress changes are sufficient to generate earthquake activity will depend on a complex interaction of the induced stress with the state of pre-existing stress near the reservoir, and on the geologic and hydrologic conditions at the site. The combined effect of increased vertical load and increased pore pressure will have the greatest tendency to increase activity in regions where the maximum compressive stress is vertical (normal faulting). In regions where the minimum compressive stress is vertical (thrust faulting) increased stress due to a vertical load should have a minimum effect. For all of the larger reservoir-induced earthquakes the stress system determined from fault plane solutions is in agreement with the pre-existing stress field in the region of the reservoir. These earthquakes are all of strike-slip or normal type, there being no reported cases of large induced earthquakes with thrusting mechanisms.

The potential for major changes in seismicity may be highest in regions of moderate strain accumulation (low to moderate natural seismicity). In areas of high strain accumulation and high levels of natural seismicity, the stress changes induced by the reservoir will be small compared to natural variations. In aseismic areas, with low strain accumulation, the reservoir-induced stresses may be insufficient to raise the stress level to a state of failure.     

Seismicity around Brazilian dam reservoirs

More than 30 cases of seismicity associated with dam reservoir sites are known throughout the world. Despite the lack of data in some areas, where seismicity occurred after reservoir impounding, there have been distinct seismic patterns observed in seismic areas after dam projects implantation. This has demonstrated that reservoir loading can trigger earthquakes. A mechanism of earthquake generation by reservoir impounding is proposed here with particular application to the Brazilian cases and to areas subject to low confining stress conditions in stable regions. Six artificial lakes are described and the associated earthquake sources are discussed in terms of natural or induced seismicity. Earthquake monitoring in Brazil up to 1967, when Brasilia's seismological station started operation, was mainly based in personal communications to the media. Therefore, there is a general lack of seismic records in relatively uninhabited areas, making it difficult to establish a seismic risk classification for the territory and to distinguish natural from induced seismicity. Despite this, cases reported here have shown an alteration of the original seismic stability in dam sites, after reservoir loading, as observed by the inhabitants or records from Brasilia's seismological station. All cases appear to be related to an increase in pore pressure in permeable rocks or fracture zones which are confined between impermeable rock slabs of more competent rock. It is apparent that some cases show some participation of high residual stress conditions in the area.     

Migration of seismicity and pore pressure diffusion for five decades long Koyna–Warna sequence and precursory nucleation process for earthquake forecasting

The continued reservoir-triggered seismicity for five decades in Koyna area has been attributed to southward migration of seismicity (during 1967–1992 near and south of Koyna dam and from 1993 onwards mostly near the new Warna reservoir). Spread of seismicity in the vicinity of reservoirs is attributed to pore-pressure diffusion. Moderate size Koyna–Warna earthquakes are found to nucleate at shallow depth (≤ 3 km) due to pore pressure caused by water level fluctuation of reservoir(s). The nucleation zone deepens along the critically stressed permeable fault zone to cause the occurrence of mainshock at the base of seismogenic layer (i.e. 5–10 km). The clustering of foreshocks up to 500 hr prior to several moderate size Koyna earthquakes of magnitude Mw 4–5 has been detected and used for quantifying the nucleation process. A static stress transfer by means of cascade model from one foreshock to next for the generation of foreshocks has been proposed for nucleation model. The nucleation process can be considered as an immediate earthquake precursor for the Koyna-Warna region.     

从断层中心论向块体中心论转变--论活动块体在地震活动中的作用

讨论活动块体在地震活动中的作用。板缘地震在空间上呈线性分布,而中国大陆地震在空间上呈片状分布。大陆强震往往涉及两个以上方向断层的活动,且强震往往沿块体边界迁移或在其两侧断层上对迁。一些强震前后由中小地震震源机制解反映的Ｐ轴方向往往发生近９０°的转向,这种现象难以用区域应力方向变化来解释,但可从块体活动角度出发,用块体两个边界断层的先后错动来解释。地震前异常的远程效应、震后烈度异常分布图像以及地震序列特点等也显示了活动块体的作用。不同地区由地震活动性推测的块体活动方式有所差别,其原因可能和区域主压应力轴与块体两个边界断层走向的夹角不同有关。据此认为,在分析中国地震活动时要把视角从以活动断层为中心转变为以活动块体为中心     

The influence of the Nurek Reservoir on local earthquake activity

The Nurek Reservoir is located in an area of high seismicity. An average of 5–6 earthquakes of (Russian energy class)K = 10 and 1–2 earthquakes ofK = 11 per year occurred in the vicinity of the reservoir. The largest local earthquake recorded fell in the energy classK = 14 (1956).

At the end of 1972, after the water level had risen to 100 m, earthquake activity increased sharply. Three events ofK = 12 were recorded during one month and the total number of earthquakes (K 7) exceeded three times the former mean level of seismicity.

Spatial and temporal properties in the epicentral distribution showed a migration from the southwest toward the reservoir.

Earthquake mechanisms of 215 events ofK 9 since 1960 were analysed. Fault plane solutions for some of the earthquakes which occurred after the impoundment were found to be different from the ordinary ones.     

Evaluation of the risk of induced seismicity at the itzantun hydroelectric site, Chiapas, Mexico

Consolidation theory and concepts of rock failure can be used to evaluate the probable risk of induced seismicity as a result of filling of reservoirs. This evaluation indicates the safest way to fill a reservoir, and depends only on the geometry of the load, the rate of filling and the geological structures in the area. The stability function is actually a measure of the risk of having failure, with time, for a particular loading history in respect to a plane of weakness.

The stability function is applied to the area of the Itzantun reservoir, which will be in southern Mexico. Drawdowns can increase the risk of triggering earthquakes in this area, which is prone to thrust faulting. It is possible to estimate the stresses after a period during which the water level is maintained and a decrease in stresses with the depth of the observation point.

The estimates of the probable induced seismicity are limited as the residual stress in the area prior to the impounding is unknown. With a measure of the residual tectonic stress it will be possible to determine an optimal filling rate to reduce the probability of induced seismicity.     

Compressive Tectonics around Tibetan Plateau Edges

Various earthquake fault types, mechanism solutions, stress field, and other geophysical data were analyzed for study on the crust movement in the Tibetan plateau and its tectonic implications. The results show that numbers of thrust fault and strike-slip fault type earthquakes with strong compressive stress near NNE-SSW direction occurred in the edges around the plateau except the eastern boundary. Some normal faulting type earthquakes concentrate in the Central Tibetan plateau. The strikes of fault planes of thrust and strike-slip faulting earthquakes are almost in the E-W direction based on the analyses of the Wulff stereonet diagrams of fault plane solutions. This implies that the dislocation slip vectors of the thrust and strike-slip faulting type events have quite great components in the N-S direction. The compression motion mainly probably plays the tectonic active regime around the plateau edges. The compressive stress in N-S or NE-SW directions predominates earthquake occurrence in the thrust and strike-slip faulting event region around the plateau. The compressive motion around the Tibetan plateau edge is attributable to the northward motion of the Indian subcontinent plate. The northward motion of the Tibetan plateau shortened in the N-S direction encounters probably strong obstructions at the western and northern margins.     

Earthquake activity related to seismic cycles in a model for a heterogeneous strike-slip fault

We investigate the evolution of seismicity within large earthquake cycles in a model of a discrete strike-slip fault in elastic solid. The model dynamics is governed by realistic boundary conditions consisting of constant velocity motion of regions around the fault, static/kinetic friction and dislocation creep along the fault, and 3D elastic stress transfer. The fault consists of brittle parts which fail during earthquakes and undergo small creep deformation between events, and aseismic creep cells which are characterized by high ongoing creep motion. This mixture of brittle and creep cells is found to generate realistic aftershock sequences which follow the modified Omori law and scale with the mainshock size. Furthermore, we find that the distribution of interevent times of the simulated earthquakes is in good agreement with observations. The temporal occurrence, however, is magnitude-dependent; in particular, the small events are clustered in time, whereas the largest earthquakes occur quasiperiodically. Averaging the seismicity before several large earthquakes, we observe an increase of activity and a broadening scaling range of magnitudes when the time of the next mainshock is approached. These results are characteristics of a critical point behavior. The presence of critical point dynamics is further supported by the evolution of the stress field in the model, which is compatible with the observation of accelerating moment release in natural fault systems.     

断块大地构造与地震活动的构造物理研究

断块大地构造理论几乎涉及地震活动的各个方面： 1）地震记录表明不但是强震,大多数6级以上地震也分布在构造块体边界上,构造块体控制了地震分布; 2）地震活动规律体现在块体整体活动中。例如,鄂尔多斯地块周边单个断陷带的地震活跃期与平静期长短不一,无明显规律。但当把鄂尔多斯地块周边作为一个整体,其地震活动在时间上显示了准周期性; 3）地块运动通过周边断层交替活动实现。从断层活动相互作用的时间间隔和错动形式出发可把它分为强震交替活动型（又可分长时间间隔和短时间间隔两类）和强震与弱震或断层蠕动交替活动型。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很短的双震活动较早被发现。强震交替活动型中时间间隔很长的类型虽然不易识别,但是依赖于中国历史地震目录,还是发现鄂尔多斯地块周边山西断陷带与渭河断陷带在历史上的3次交替活动等; 强震与弱震或断层蠕动型的交替活动型很不容易被发现,仅在台网较密,观测条件较好的北京地区观测到。4）利用一些实验结果讨论了交替活动的规律。此外,结合断块大地构造理论对一些地震现象进行了讨论。     

A multi-tiered earthquake hazard model for Australia

Earthquakes result from tectonic processes, and their distribution is strongly influenced by large-scale geology and the tectonic stress field. However, earthquake hazard estimates, particularly ground motion recurrence, have traditionally been computed using source models based primarily on instrumental and historical seismicity. In areas of low to moderate seismicity such as Australia, large earthquakes commonly occur in areas which have experienced little or no recent activity, making it difficult to develop source models based solely on seismicity.

The seismotectonic model developed for Australia that is presented here (AUS5) is based on geology, geophysics, tectonics and seismicity. The model was developed using a number of tiers of information, so that new information can easily be incorporated. The information used includes, but is not limited to, tectonic provinces, basins and ranges, gravity, magnetic, topography, and seismicity, all on a regional scale. On a local scale, for a site-specific earthquake hazard study, active faulting can be incorporated to provide fault source zones.

An earthquake hazard map showing peak ground acceleration with a 10% chance of exceedance in 50 years for southeastern Australia using the geologically defined seismotectonic model AUS5 is presented as an indication of how the model performs.     

Instrumentation for observation of induced seismicity

Instrumentation for observations of seismicity and ground acceleration near artificial reservoirs is evolving rapidly at the present time. Data recorded between 1936 and 1970, generally with only 1–3 seismograph stations, has established that the impounding of a large reservoir may lead to increased seismicity. Occasionally, shallow earthquakes in excess of magnitude 6 have occurred with resulting damage to surface structures and loss of life. Conditions leading to severe earthquakes have not been established but the pattern of enhanced seismicity as the reservoir level rises indicates that it is possible to predict when a dangerous level of earthquake rise is approaching. Increased use is now being made of larger arrays of detectors together with telemetry, storage of data on magnetic tape and even digital recording in the field. Future developments include complete digital recording of a broad range of instrumentation and detection and control of sampling rates by on-line micro-computers. As our instrumental sophistication increases and the relevant parameters for precursor activity are established it would appear that earthquake prediction near reservoirs is a possibility.     

鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系

采用β统计对汶川地震前后鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区的地震活动率进行了空间扫描分析,并采用JiChen的震源破裂模型计算了汶川地震产生的库仑破裂应力变化,以研究鄂尔多斯块体周缘地区近期地震活动性与汶川地震应力触发作用的关系。结果发现,鄂尔多斯块体西南缘弧形断裂束的南东段与南缘渭河盆地的地震活动率在汶川地震后提高显著,其他区域的地震活动率没有明显提高,库仑破裂应力计算得到两个区域的应力变化范围分别为0.005～0.02 MPa和0.001～0.01 MPa,表明汶川地震有可能触发了这两个区域的地震活动。鄂尔多斯块体东缘的山西断陷带处于库仑破裂应力计算的应力增加区,应力变化范围为0～0.012 MPa,2009年3月以来发生的4次ML4.5～5.2级强有感至微破坏地震有可能被汶川地震所延迟触发。b值、地震能量释放率与空间相关距离SCL等地震活动性参数随时间变化扫描结果显示,该区域可能处于不断趋近高应力累积的状态,其未来大震有可能提前发生。西缘地区为应力减小区,其目前的地震活动处于正常水平状态。