Cosmic-Ray Modulation: An Empirical Relation with Solar and Heliospheric Parameters

Long-term variations of galactic cosmic rays were compared with the behavior of various solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the current solar cycle. This study continues previous works where the cosmic-ray intensity for the solar cycles 20, 21, and 22 was well simulated from the linear combination of the sunspot number, the number of grouped solar flares, and the geomagnetic index A _p. The application of this model to the current solar cycle characterized by many peculiarities and extreme solar events led us to study more empirical relations between solar-heliospheric variables, such as the interplanetary magnetic field, coronal mass ejections, and the tilt of the heliospheric current sheet, and cosmic-ray modulation. By analyzing monthly cosmic-ray data from the Neutron Monitor Stations of Oulu (cutoff rigidity 0.81 GV) and Moscow (2.42 GV) the contribution of these parameters in the ascending, maximum, and descending phases of the cycle was investigated and it is shown that a combination of these parameters reproduces the majority of the modulation potential variations during this cycle. The approach applied makes it possible to better describe the behavior of cosmic rays in the epochs of the solar maxima, which could not be done before. An extended study of the time profiles, the correlations, and the time lags of the cosmic-ray intensity against these parameters using the method of minimizing RMS over all the considered period 1996 – 2006 determines characteristic properties of this cycle as being an odd cycle. Moreover, the obtained hysteresis curves and a correlative analysis during the positive polarity (qA>0, where q is the particle charge) and during the negative polarity (qA<0) intervals of the cycle result in significantly different behavior between solar and heliospheric parameters. The time lag and the correlation coefficient of the cosmic-ray intensity are higher for the solar indices in comparison to the heliospheric ones. A similar behavior also appears in the case of the intervals with positive and negative polarity of the solar magnetic field.     

Long-Term Modulation of Cosmic-Ray Intensity and Correlation Analysis Using Solar and Heliospheric Parameters

Based on the monthly sunspot numbers (SSNs), the solar-flare index (SFI), grouped solar flares (GSFs), the tilt angle of heliospheric current sheet (HCS), and cosmic-ray intensity (CRI) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24, a detailed correlation study has been performed using the cycle-wise average correlation (with and without time lag) method as well as by the “running cross-correlation” method. It is found that the slope of regression lines between SSN and SFI, as well as between SSN and GSF, is continuously decreasing from Solar Cycle 21 to 24. The length of regression lines has significantly decreased during Cycles 23 and 24 in comparison to Cycles 21 and 22. The cross-correlation coefficient (without time lag) between SSN–CRI, SFI–CRI, and GSF–CRI has been found to be almost the same during Cycles 21 and 22, while during Cycles 23 and 24 it is significantly higher between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI than for SFI–CRI and GSF–CRI. Considering time lags of 1 to 20 months, the maximum correlation coefficient (negative) amongst all of the sets of solar parameters is observed with almost the same time lags during Cycles 21?–?23, whereas exceptional behaviour of the time lag has been observed during Cycle 24, as the correlation coefficient attains its maximum value with two time lags (four and ten months) in the case of the SSN–CRI relationship. A remarkably large time lag (22 months) between HCS and CRI has been observed during the odd-numbered Cycle 21, whereas during another odd cycle, Cycle 23, the lag is small (nine months) in comparison to that for other solar/flare parameters (13?–?15 months). On the other hand, the time lag between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI has been found to be almost the same during even-numbered Solar Cycles 22 and 24. A similar analysis has been performed between SFI and CRI, and it is found that the correlation coefficient is maximum at zero time lag during the present solar cycle. The GSFs have shown better maximum correlation with CRI as compared to SFI during Cycles 21 to 23, indicating that GSF could also be used as a significant solar parameter to study the cosmic-ray modulation. Furthermore, the running cross-correlation coefficient between SSN–CRI and HCS–CRI, as well as between solar-flare activity parameters (SFI and GSF) and CRI is observed to be strong during the ascending and descending phases of solar cycles. The level of cosmic-ray modulation during the period of investigation shows the appropriateness of different parameters in different cycles, and even during the different phases of a particular solar cycle. We have also studied the galactic cosmic-ray modulation in relation to combined solar and heliospheric parameters using the empirical model suggested by Paouris et al. (Solar Phys.280, 255, 2012). The proposed model for the calculation of the modulated cosmic-ray intensity obtained from the combination of solar and heliospheric parameter gives a very satisfactory value of standard deviation as well as \(R^{2}\) (the coefficient of determination) for Solar Cycles 21?–?24.     

Study of the Cosmic-Ray Modulation During the Passage of ICMEs and CIRs

We compare the cosmic-ray response to interplanetary coronal mass ejections (ICMEs) and corotating interaction regions (CIRs) during their passage in near-Earth space. We study the relative importance of various structures/features identified during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs observed during Cycle 23 (1995?–?2009). The identified ICME structures are the shock front, the sheath, and the CME ejecta. We isolate the shock arrival time, the passage of the sheath region, the arrival of ejecta, and the end time of their passage. Similarly, we isolate the CIR arrival, the associated forward shock, the stream interface, and the reverse shock during the passage of a CIR. For the cosmic-ray intensity, we utilize the data from high counting rate neutron monitors. In addition to neutron monitor data, we utilize near-simultaneous and same time-resolution data of interplanetary plasma and field, namely the solar-wind velocity, the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) vector, and its variance. Further, we also utilize some derived interplanetary parameters. We apply the method of the superposed-epoch analysis. As the plasma and field properties are different during the passage of different structures, both in ICMEs and CIRs, we systematically vary the epoch time in our superposed-epoch analysis one by one. In this way, we study the role and effects of each of the identified individual structures/features during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs. Relating the properties of various structures and the corresponding variations in plasma and field parameters with changes of the cosmic-ray intensity, we identify the relative importance of the plasma/field parameters in influencing the amplitude and time profiles of the cosmic-ray intensity variations during the passage of the ICMEs and CIRs.     

Galactic Cosmic Ray Modulation and the Last Solar Minimum

In this work the galactic cosmic ray modulation in relation to solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters during the years 1996??C?2010 covering solar cycle 23 and the solar minimum between cycles 23 and 24 is studied. A new perspective of this contribution is that cosmic ray data with a rigidity of 10 GV at the top of the atmosphere obtained from many ground-based neutron monitors were used. The proposed empirical relation gave much better results than those in previous works concerning the hysteresis effect. The proposed models obtained from a combination of solar activity indices and heliospheric parameters give a standard deviation <?10?% for all the cases. The correlation coefficient between the cosmic ray variations of 10?GV and the sunspot number reached a value of r=?0.89 with a time lag of 13.6±0.4 months. The best reproduction of the cosmic ray intensity is obtained by taking into account solar and interplanetary indices such as sunspot number, interplanetary magnetic field, CME index, and heliospheric current sheet tilt. The standard deviation between the observed and calculated values is about 7.15?% for all of solar cycle 23; it also works very well during the different phases of the cycle. Moreover, the use of the cosmic ray intensity of 10?GV during the long minimum period between cycles 23 and 24 is of special interest and is discussed in terms of cosmic ray intensity modulation.     

Three-Dimensional Evolution of Flux-Rope CMEs and Its Relation to the Local Orientation of the Heliospheric Current Sheet

Flux ropes ejected from the Sun may change their geometrical orientation during their evolution, which directly affects their geoeffectiveness. Therefore, it is crucial to understand how solar flux ropes evolve in the heliosphere to improve our space-weather forecasting tools. We present a follow-up study of the concepts described by Isavnin, Vourlidas, and Kilpua (Solar Phys. 284, 203, 2013). We analyze 14 coronal mass ejections (CMEs), with clear flux-rope signatures, observed during the decay of Solar Cycle 23 and rise of Solar Cycle 24. First, we estimate initial orientations of the flux ropes at the origin using extreme-ultraviolet observations of post-eruption arcades and/or eruptive prominences. Then we reconstruct multi-viewpoint coronagraph observations of the CMEs from ≈?2 to 30 R_⊙ with a three-dimensional geometric representation of a flux rope to determine their geometrical parameters. Finally, we propagate the flux ropes from ≈?30 R_⊙ to 1 AU through MHD-simulated background solar wind while using in-situ measurements at 1 AU of the associated magnetic cloud as a constraint for the propagation technique. This methodology allows us to estimate the flux-rope orientation all the way from the Sun to 1 AU. We find that while the flux-ropes’ deflection occurs predominantly below 30 R_⊙, a significant amount of deflection and rotation happens between 30 R_⊙ and 1 AU. We compare the flux-rope orientation to the local orientation of the heliospheric current sheet (HCS). We find that slow flux ropes tend to align with the streams of slow solar wind in the inner heliosphere. During the solar-cycle minimum the slow solar-wind channel as well as the HCS usually occupy the area in the vicinity of the solar equatorial plane, which in the past led researchers to the hypothesis that flux ropes align with the HCS. Our results show that exceptions from this rule are explained by interaction with the Parker-spiraled background magnetic field, which dominates over the magnetic interaction with the HCS in the inner heliosphere at least during solar-minimum conditions.     

An Analysis of Polar Coronal Hole Evolution: Relations to Other Solar Phenomena and Heliospheric Consequences

We use observations of the green corona low-brightness regions to construct a time series of a polar coronal hole area from 1939 to 1996, covering 5 solar cycles. We then perform a power-spectral analysis of the monthly data time series. Several persistent significant periodicities appear in the spectra, which are related with those found in solar magnetic flux emergence, geomagnetic storm sudden commencements and cosmic-ray flux at Earth. Of particular importance are the peak at around 1.6–1.8 yr recently found in cosmic-ray intensity fluctuations, and the peak at around 1 yr, also identified in coronal hole magnetic flux variations. Additional interesting features are the peaks close to 5 yr, 3 yr and the possible peak at around 30 yr, that were also found in other solar and interplanetary phenomena. Our results stress the physical connection between the solar magnetic flux emergence and the interplanetary medium dynamics, in particular the importance of coronal hole evolution in the structuring of the heliosphere.     

Proton Enhancements and Their Relation to the X-Ray Flares During the Three Last Solar Cycles

Energetic proton measurements obtained from the GOES and IMP-8 satellites as well as from ground-based neutron monitors are compared with the GOES soft X-ray measurements of the associated solar flares for the period 1975–2003. The present study investigates a broad range of phenomenology relating proton events to flares (with some references to related interplanetary disturbances), including correlations of occurrence, intensities, durations and timing of both the particle event and the flare as well as the role of the heliographic location of the designated active region. 1144 proton events of > 10 MeV energy were selected from this 28-year period. Owing primarily to the low particle flux threshold employed more than half of this number was found to be reliably connected with an X-ray flare. The statistical analysis indicates that the probability and magnitude of the near-Earth proton enhancement depends critically on the flare's importance and its heliolongitude. In this study all flares of X-ray importance > X5 and located in the most propitious heliolongitude range, 15^∘W to 75^∘W, were succeeded by a detectable proton enhancement. It was also found that the heliolongitude frequently determines the character of the proton event time profile. In addition to intensity, duration and timing, proton events were found to be related to the other flare properties such as lower temperatures and longer loop lengths.     

A Heliospheric Imager for Deep Space: Lessons Learned from Helios, SMEI, and STEREO

The zodiacal-light photometers on the twin Helios spacecraft, the Solar Mass Ejection Imager (SMEI) on the Coriolis spacecraft, and the Heliospheric Imagers (HIs) on the Solar-TErrestrial RElations Observatory (STEREO) twin spacecraft all point the way to optimizing future remote-sensing Thomson-scattering observations from deep space. Such data could be provided by wide-angle viewing instruments on Solar Orbiter, Solar Probe, or other deep-space probes. Here, we present instrument specifications required for a successful heliospheric imager, and the measurements and data-processing steps that make the best use of this remote-sensing system. When this type of instrument is properly designed and calibrated, its data are capable of determining zodiacal-dust properties, and of three-dimensional reconstructions of heliospheric electron density over large volumes of the inner heliosphere. Such systems can measure fundamental properties of the inner heliospheric plasma, provide context for the in-situ monitors on board spacecraft, and enable physics-based analyses of this important segment of the Sun-spacecraft connection.     

Systematically Asymmetric Heliospheric Magnetic Field: Evidence for a Quadrupole Mode and Non-Axisymmetry with Polarity Flip-Flops

Recent studies of the heliospheric magnetic field (HMF) have detected interesting, systematic hemispherical and longitudinal asymmetries which have a profound significance for the understanding of solar magnetic fields. The in situ HMF measurements since the 1960s show that the heliospheric current sheet (HCS) is systematically shifted (coned) southward during solar minimum times, leading to the concept of a bashful ballerina. While temporary shifts can be considerably larger, the average HCS shift (coning) angle is a few degrees, less than the 7.2^∘ tilt of the solar rotation axis. Recent solar observations during the last two solar cycles verify these results and show that the magnetic areas in the northern solar hemisphere are larger and their intensity weaker than in the south during long intervals in the late declining to minimum phase. The multipole expansion reveals a strong quadrupole term which is oppositely directed to the dipole term. These results imply that the Sun has a symmetric quadrupole S0 dynamo mode that oscillates in phase with the dominant dipole A0 mode. Moreover, the heliospheric magnetic field has a strong tendency to produce solar tilts that are roughly opposite in longitudinal phase. This implies is a systematic longitudinal asymmetry and leads to a “flip-flop” type behaviour in the dominant HMF sector whose period is about 3.2 years. This agrees very well with the similar flip-flop period found recently in sunspots, as well as with the observed ratio of three between the activity cycle period and the flip-flop period of sun-like stars. Accordingly, these results require that the solar dynamo includes three modes, A0, S0 and a non-axisymmetric mode. Obviously, these results have a great impact on solar modelling.     

Reconstruction of Wolf Sunspot Numbers on the Basis of Spectral Characteristics and Estimates of Associated Radio Flux and Solar Wind Parameters for the Last Millennium

A reconstruction of sunspot numbers for the last 1000 years was obtained using a sum of sine waves derived from spectral analysis of the time series of sunspot number R _z for the period 1700–1999. The time series was decomposed in frequency levels using the wavelet transform, and an iterative regression model (ARIST) was used to identify the amplitude and phase of the main periodicities. The 1000-year reconstructed sunspot number reproduces well the great maximums and minimums in solar activity, identified in cosmonuclides variation records, and, specifically, the epochs of the Oort, Wolf, Spörer, Maunder, and Dalton Minimums as well the Medieval and Modern Maximums. The average sunspot number activity in each anomalous period was used in linear equations to obtain estimates of the solar radio flux F _10.7, solar wind velocity, and the southward component of the interplanetary magnetic field.     

On the Overcontact Binary V2388 Oph and An Improved M–R Relation for Ltcbs

The evolutionary stage of the low-temperature contact binary (LTCB) V2388 Oph has been investigated. V2388 Oph was previously classified as an A-type W UMa star, and is the brighter member of the visual binary Fin 381. When compared to other well-known LTCBs it is evident that the primary component has evolved to the TAMS, and the companion also seems to be more evolved than a ZAMS star. Mochnacki proposed a new subgroup of W UMa stars, namely of OO Aql type, distinct from A and W types. V2388 Oph is suggested to be a member of this new group.     

Flux and Field Line Conservation in 3-D Non-Ideal MHD Flows: Remarks About Criteria for 3-D Reconnection Without Magnetic Neutral Points and Their Application to the Heliospheric Interface

In this paper, we address the issue of finding velocity fields which conserve magnetic flux or at least magnetic fieldline connectivity. We start from the basic principles of flux and line conservation and present and discuss the criterion, given by Newcomb (1958), Stern (1966), and Vasyliunas (1972). In addition, we find a new formulation of the line-conserving velocity field by solving the system of partial differential equations which corresponds to Newcomb's criterion for line conservation. This velocity field is given by a correlation between the non-idealness, described by a generalized form of the Ohm's law and a general transporting velocity, which is fieldline conserving. Our considerations give additional insights into the discussion on violations of the frozen-in field concept which started recently with the papers by Baranov and Fahr (2003a,b). These authors analyzed a generalized form of Ohm's law, which is valid for the heliosphere and claimed that the transport velocity for the magnetic flux may be different from the plasma velocity. We can show that the non-idealness given in the paper by Baranov and Fahr could not change the magnetic topology and can therefore not be responsible for magnetic reconnection. But we found that it is in general not clear if the flux-conserving velocity field is identical to the plasma flow or to any species velocity field.     

Relation between the apparent magnitude and the parallax for Hyades stars

In this paper, relation was established for Hyades stars between their apparent magnitudes and parallaxes. The precision criteria of this relation are very satisfactory. The importance of this relation was illustrated through its usages as: (1) A criterion for membership of the cluster, (2) a generating function for evaluating some parameters of the cluster.     

Empirical constraints for the magnitude and composition of galactic winds

Galactic winds are a key physical mechanism for understanding galaxy formation and evolution, yet empirical and theoretical constraints for the character of winds are limited and discrepant. Recent empirical models find that local star-forming galaxies have a deficit of oxygen that scales with galaxy stellar mass. The oxygen deficit provides unique empirical constraints on the magnitude of mass loss, composition of outflowing material and metal reaccretion onto galaxies. We formulate the oxygen deficit constraints so they may be easily implemented into theoretical models of galaxy evolution. We parameterize an effective metal loading factor which combines the uncertainties of metal outflows and metal reaccretion into a single function of galaxy virial velocity. We determine the effective metal loading factor by forward-fitting the oxygen deficit. The effective metal loading factor we derive has important implications for the implementation of mass loss in models of galaxy evolution.     

Westwanderung and the lunar tidal couple: Modulation of convection by Bulge Stress

Wegener concluded that the Earth's surface has suffered regionally variable westward displacement. Modern data support Wegener's conclusion, but a causative mechanism has not been evident. The retarding torque is too small to distort the viscous Earth. At the same time difficulty has been experienced in explaining the large value of the astronomically detected tidal dissipation. We have examined the effect of the secular rotational strain imposed by tidal bulge formation on convection in the mantle of arbitrary origin. The dissipation as measured by the lag in the bodily tides appears adequate to explain the missing part of the dissipation, some 8.5 × 10²⁶ erg yr^–1, without recourse to an unidentified mechanism in the seas. The convection must itself be influenced by the external force system. The effect to be expected is that circulation resulting in westward displacement at surface must be fostered at the expense of circulation in other directions. The history of the tidal couple, if this is based on dissipation in the mantle, is likely to differ greatly from that of a couple based on dissipation in the seas.     

Modelling the Global Solar Corona: Filament Chirality Observations and Surface Simulations

The hemispheric pattern of solar filaments is considered in the context of the global magnetic field of the solar corona. In recent work Mackay and van Ballegooijen have shown how, for a pair of interacting magnetic bipoles, the observed chirality pattern could be explained by the dominant range of bipole tilt angles and helicity in each hemisphere. This study aims to test this earlier result through a direct comparison between theory and observations, using newly developed simulations of the actual surface and 3D coronal magnetic fields over a 6-month period, on a global scale. We consider two key components: (1) observations of filament chirality for the sample of 255 filaments and (2) our new simulations of the large-scale surface magnetic field. Based on a flux-transport model, these will be used as the lower boundary condition for the future 3D coronal simulations. Our technique differs significantly from those of other authors, where the coronal field is either assumed to be purely potential or has to be reset back to potential every 27 days for the photospheric field to remain accurate. In our case we ensure accuracy by the insertion of newly emerging bipolar active regions, based on observed photospheric synoptic magnetograms. The large-scale surface field is shown to remain accurate over the 6-month period, without any resetting. This new technique will enable future simulations to consider the long-term buildup and transport of helicity and shear in the coronal magnetic field over many months or years.