淮河具有行蓄洪区河系洪水预报水力学模型研究

针对淮河流域河系特点,建立淮河具有行蓄洪区河系洪水预报模型.干流河道洪水演进采用一维水动力学模型,钐岗分流量利用分流曲线法推求,利用虚拟线性水库法解决大洪水时支流洪水受干流顶托作用,临淮岗闸作为水力学模型的内边界条件进行处理,利用分流比法概化行洪过程,行洪区内只有蓄满时,才会有出流,行洪区内的洪水利用Muskingum...     

Classification of low flow and hydrological drought for a river basin

The occurrence of drought is one of the characteristic features of Polish climate. Drought usually lasts for many weeks and covers considerable area causing economic and social losses. Due to the influence which drought has on environment, economy and society, more and more research and implementation works are devoted to issues concerning its occurrence, risk assessment, monitoring, and forecasting. Literature indicates that hydrological droughts are most often associated with low flow periods on rivers. The paper presents analyses of hydrological drought periods on the basis of hydrological drought index (HDI) for selected Nysa K?odzka study basin (SW part of Poland). Analyses were carried out in relation to the Maximum Credible Hydrological Drought (MCHD). In addition, attempts were taken to assess the hydrological drought based on atmospheric drought focused on application in ungauged basins in terms of hydrological monitoring.     

太湖流域旱涝与南海海温异常遥相关的历史见证

我国南海海温异常对长江中下游夏季旱涝的遥相关,已被许多实测资料研究所证实。太湖流域作为长江中下游的一部分,历史时期是否也存在相应的遥相关,通过大量历史资料分析,得出了肯定的回答。在此基础上,联系历史时期和实测资料时期的其它旱涝因素分析,建立了太湖流域旱涝变化模型。     

Power spectral characteristics of drought indices in the Ebro river basin at different temporal scales

A deep spectral investigation of the monthly time series of Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) and Standardized Precipitation Evapotranspiration Index (SPEI) in 45 meteorological stations in the Ebro basin (Spain) from 1950 to 2006 for timescales ranging from 1 to 48 months was performed. In order to summarize the results for the whole basin, the spectral analysis was also carried out on the four principal components of SPI and SPEI. Results confirm that SPI and SPEI presents very similar spectral characteristics. At the shorter time scales, the signal of SPI and SPEI is characterized by purely random temporal fluctuations. The longer time scales tend to feature the signal as a smoothly varying time series or persistent, mostly due to the aggregated nature of the indices calculation. The comparative analysis of the spectral properties of the drought indices for all the 45 sites in the Ebro basin lead to the identification of global or regional effects discriminated by local effects. It was found that some periodical signals are common to almost all the sites, while others where only identified in specific meteorological stations.     

Empirical and conceptual modelling of the suspended sediment dynamics in a large tropical African river: the Upper Niger river basin

A 7-year sediment transport monitoring on the Upper Niger rivers was used to study the relationship between suspended sediment concentration and river discharge. During annual floods, these relationships show positive hysteresis. This paper presents the results of two models that estimate the time evolution of suspended sediment concentration using water discharge data only. The first model is based on a statistical approach using two relationships, one for the rising stage period of the flood and one for the recession period of the annual flood; the second model is a lumped conceptual one; it supposes that the sediment flux observed in the river comes from two different sources of sediment and that these two sources may be regarded as two different reservoirs. The erosion of the first reservoir represents hillslope erosion observed during the runoff season. Sediment supply from this ‘reservoir’ is limited in time because depletion occurs during the runoff season. The second reservoir is unlimited in time and quantity and its erosion represents contributions coming from bank erosion and mobilisation of deposits in the channel network.

Both of the models are compared with a simple rating curve based model. The model results show that the conceptual model has the highest efficiency to reproduce from weekly discharge only the time evolution of weekly suspended sediment concentrations, the time evolution of weekly sediment fluxes, and the global annual sediment yields.     

Simulation of spatially-distributed copper pollution in a large river basin using the ECOMAG-HM model

The semi-distributed physically-based model ECOMAG-HM was developed to simulate cycling of heavy metals in large river basins: on the surface, and in soil, groundwater and river water. The model was applied to study the spatial distribution and temporal dynamics of copper concentrations in watercourses of the Nizhnekamskoe Reservoir watershed in Russia. This watershed is characterized by high background concentrations of heavy metals due to wide occurrence of ore deposits and considerable concentrations of ore-parent elements in rocks. The model was found to adequately reproduce the spatial variation of the mean annual copper concentrations at different monitoring points of the river network. The mean annual specific copper washoff, with the surface and subsurface components of river runoff, and the total copper washoff from the watershed into the river network were calculated and mapped. The contributions of natural and anthropogenic factors to river water pollution by copper were evaluated.     

Run-off affected by climate and anthropogenic changes in a large semi-arid river basin

A rapid reduction in run-off has been observed in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin in recent decades. Understanding the contributions of climate change and human activities, such as vegetation restoration and water consumption, to surface water resource reduction has become urgent and very important for future regional planning. Here, we use attribution approaches to explore the effects of climate change and human activities on run-off over the past six decades. The results showed that the observed annual run-off at Tongguan station, which is located within the mainstream of the Yellow River, exhibited a significant decreasing trend of −0.69 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) and varied from −0.28 to −1.46 mm year⁻¹ (p < .01) in the eight selected tributaries from 1960 to 2015. Two relatively abrupt changes in the double mass curves occurred around 1979 and 1999; compared with Period 1 (P1; 1960–1979), the average catchment run-off decreased 32% during Period 2 (P2; 1980–1999) and up to 49% during Period 3 (P3; 2000–2015). We calculated that approximately 29% of the reduction in the run-off during P2 and 18% during P3 were attributed to climate change. Increased surface water consumption resulted in effective run-off reduction, with relative contributions of approximately 27% and 28% during P2 and P3, respectively. With the implementation of the “Grain-for-Green” project, the vegetation coverage rapidly increased from 36% in P1 to 52% in P3 and reduced run-off by 35% during P3. These findings explain the run-off reduction and benefit water resource management in the middle reaches of the Yellow River basin.     

Model study of the relationship between sediment yield and river basin area

The SHETRAN physically based, spatially distributed model is used to investigate the scaling relationship linking specific sediment yield to river basin area, for two contrasting topographies of upland and more homogeneous terrain and as a function of sediment source, land use and rainfall distribution. Modelling enables the effects of the controls to be examined on a systematic basis, while avoiding the difficulties associated with the use of field data (which include limited data, lack of measurements for nested basins and inability to isolate the effects of individual controls). Conventionally sediment yield is held to decrease as basin area increases, as the river network becomes more remote from the headwater sediment sources (an inverse relationship). However, recent studies have reported the opposite variation, depending on the river basin characteristics. The simulation results are consistent with these studies. If the sediment is supplied solely from hillslope erosion (no channel bank erosion) then, with uniform land use, sediment yield either decreases or is constant as area increases. The downstream decrease is accentuated if rainfall (and thence erosion) is higher in the headwaters than at lower elevations. Introducing a non‐uniform land use (e.g. forest at higher elevations, wheat at lower elevations) can reverse the trend, so that sediment yield increases downstream. If the sediment is supplied solely from bank erosion (no hillslope erosion), the sediment yield increases downstream for all conditions. The sediment yield/basin area relationship can thus be inverse or direct, depending on basin characteristics. There still remains, therefore, considerable scope for defining a universal scaling law for sediment yield. Copyright © 2006 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Evaluating precipitation products for hydrologic modeling over a large river basin in the Midwestern USA

ABSTRACT

We evaluated precipitation estimates, TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42V7), CFSR (Climate Forecast System Reanalysis), GHCN-D (Global Historical Climatology Network-Daily Version 3.24), and Daymet, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The suitability and quality of TRMM, CFSR and Daymet in forcing the SWAT-based hydrological model was examined by means of model calibration. A calibrated TRMM-driven model slightly overestimated streamflow, while a calibrated CFSR-driven model performed worst. The Daymet-driven model performance was as good as the GHCN-D-driven model in reproducing observations. In addition, the temperature was far less sensitive compared with precipitation in driving SWAT. TRMM 3B42V7 showed great potential in streamflow simulation. The results and findings from this study provide new insights into the suitability of precipitation products for hydrological and climate impact studies in large basins, particularly those in typical climates and physiographic settings similar to the Midwestern USA.     

Total nitrogen inflow and outflow from a large river swamp basin to the Gulf of Mexico

Abstract

River corridor wetland restoration and freshwater diversion from the lower Mississippi River are being considered as two major options to reduce nitrogen input to the Gulf of Mexico. However, it is largely uncertain how much nitrogen can actually be retained from the overflowing waters by these wetland systems. This study quantified the nitrogen inflow and outflow for the largest distributary basin of the Mississippi River, the Atchafalaya River Swamp basin. The goal of the study was to seek answers to three critical questions: (a) Does the Atchafalaya River Swamp remove a significant amount of nitrogen from the overflowing water, or is it releasing more nitrogen into the Gulf? (b) How do the nitrogen removal or release rates fluctuate seasonally and annually? (c) What are the relationships between the nitrogen removal capacity and the hydrological conditions in the basin such as river stage and discharge? By utilizing the long-term (1978–2002) river discharge and water quality data, monthly and annual nitrogen fluxes were quantified, and their relationships with the basin hydrological conditions investigated. A total nitrogen—sum of the total Kjeldahl nitrogen (TKN) and nitrate plus nitrite nitrogen (NO₃+NO₂)—mass input—output balance between the upstream (Simmesport) and downstream (Morgan City and Wax Lake Outlet) locations was established to examine the nitrogen removal potential for this, the largest freshwater swamp basin in North America. The results from this study showed that, over the past 25 years, the Atchafalaya River Swamp basin acted as a source for NO₃+NO₂ nitrogen, although the average annual output of NO₃+NO₂ nitrogen (174 584 Mg) was only slightly higher (2.3%) than the average annual input of NO₃+NO₂ nitrogen (170 721 Mg). The higher NO₃+NO₂ mass outflow occurred throughout summer and autumn, indicating an active role of biological processes on nitrogen in the overflowing waters of the Atchafalaya. However, this swamp basin has served as a major sink for organic nitrogen: the annual averages of TKN mass input and output were 200 323 and 145 917 Mg year^?1, respectively, presenting a 27.2% removal rate by the basin. This large TKN reduction appeared high during springs and low during late summers, corresponding with the fluctuation of the hydrological conditions of the river.     

On the relationships between catchment scale and streamwater mean residence time

The relationship between streamwater mean residence time (MRT) and landscape characteristics is poorly understood. We used tritium (³H) to define our MRT. We tested the hypothesis that baseflow water MRT increases with increasing absolute catchment size at the Maimai catchments. These catchments are simple hydrologic systems relative to many catchments around the world, with uniformly wet climatic conditions, little seasonality, uniform and nearly impermeable bedrock, steep short hillslopes, shallow soils, and well‐characterized hillslope and catchment hydrology. As a result, this is a relatively simple system and an ideal location for new MRT‐related hypothesis testing. Whilst hydrologists have used ³H to estimate water age since the 1960s nuclear testing spike, atmospheric ³H levels have now approached near background levels and are often complicated by contamination from the nuclear industry. We present results for ³H sampled from our set of nested catchments in nuclear‐industry‐free New Zealand. Because of high precision analysis, near‐natural atmospheric ³H levels, and well‐characterized rainfall ³H inputs, we were able to estimate the age of young (i.e. less than 3 years old) waters. Our results showed no correlation between MRT and catchment size. However, MRT was correlated to the median sub‐catchment size of the sampled watersheds, as shown by landscape analysis of catchment area accumulation patterns. These preliminary findings suggest that landscape organization, rather than total area, is a first‐order control on MRT and points the way forward for more detailed analysis of how landscape organization affects catchment runoff characteristics. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Persistence of the surface texture of a gravel‐bed river during a large flood

We present herein clear field evidence for the persistence of a coarse surface layer in a gravel‐bed river during flows capable of transporting all grain sizes present on the channel bed. Detailed field measurements of channel topography and bed surface grain size were made in a gravel‐bed reach of the Colorado River prior to a flood in 2003. Runoff produced during the 2003 snowmelt was far above average, resulting in a sustained period of high flow with a peak discharge of 27 m³/s (170% of normal peak flow); all available grain sizes within the study reach were mobilized in this period of time. During the 2003 peak flow, the river avulsed immediately upstream of the study reach, thereby abandoning approximately one half kilometer of the former channel. The abandonment was rapid (probably within a few hours), leaving the bed texture essentially frozen in place at the peak of the flood. All locations sampled prior to the flood were resampled following the stream abandonment. In response to the high flow, the surface median grain size (D_50s) coarsened slightly in the outer part of the bend while remaining nearly constant along the inner part of the bend, resulting in an overall increase from 18 to 21 mm for the study reach. Thus, the coarse bed surface texture persisted despite shear stresses throughout the bend that were well above the critical entrainment value. This may be explained because the response of the bed texture to increases in flow strength depends primarily upon the continued availability of the various grain size percentiles in the supply, which in this case was essentially unlimited for all sizes present in the channel. Copyright © 2007 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Risk assessment and drought management in the Thames basin

Abstract

A risk assessment procedure is described for use in managing a system of pumped-storage reservoirs in the Thames basin during a drought. Historical daily rainfall sequences are used as equi-probable scenarios of future rainfall. These are transformed to flow, reservoir level, and demand restriction sequences through the use of rainfall-runoff and water resource system models. The risk assessment information required is then obtained through a statistical analysis of these sequences. A novel technique is presented for incorporating monthly rainfall forecasts, presented as probabilities of rainfall being above average, average, or below average, into the risk assessment scheme. Information on current hydrological conditions is incorporated in the procedure through the use of recently observed natural flows to adjust the internal state variables of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to achieve agreement between observed and model flow. The overall procedure is accommodated within a decision support system for drought management which is implemented on a microcomputer and makes extensive use of interactive menus, forms and colour graphic displays. A key feature of the system is the maintenance of an up-to-date archive of hydrometric data which is achieved through a real-time communication link with a second computer dedicated to real-time data acquisition via telemetry. Monitoring the reliability of the water resource system during droughts is made a quick and easy task, and the effect of a change in the operating policy on system reliability can be readily assessed. The information obtained provides valuable support for tactical decision-making within the overall long-term operating strategy.     

Hydrological impacts of forest conversion to agriculture in a large river basin in northeast Thailand

Small‐scale experiments have demonstrated that forest clearance leads to an increase in water yield, but it is unclear if this result holds for larger river basins (>1000 km²). No widespread changes in rainfall totals and patterns were found in the 12 100 km² Nam Pong catchment in northeast Thailand between 1957 and 1995, despite a reduction in the area classified as forest from 80% to 27% in the last three decades. Neither were any detectable changes found in any other water balance terms nor in the dynamics of the recession at the end of the rainy season. When a hydrological model calibrated against data from the period before the deforestation was applied for the last years of the study period (1987–1995), runoff generation was however underestimated by approximately 15%, indicating increased runoff generation after the deforestation. However, this was mainly due to the hydrological response during one single year in the first period, when the Q/P ratio was very low. When excluding this year, neither analysis based on the hydrological model could reveal any significant change of the water balance due to the deforestation. More detailed land‐use analysis revealed that shade trees were left on agricultural plots as well as a number of abandoned areas where secondary growth can be expected, which is believed to account for the results. Copyright © 2001 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Indexing the relationship between polar motion and water mass change in a giant river basin

Previous studies on the relationship between polar motion and water mass change have mainly concentrated on the excitation of polar motion via global terrestrial water storage changes(TWSC). In view of the uneven distribution of global terrestrial water storage, the relationship between regional water mass change and polar motion needs to be further explored owing to the lack of documented results. In addition, given the uncertainty in the estimation of TWSC, it is required to develop appropriate indices to describe water mass change from different perspectives. The Amazon River basin(referred to Amazon hereafter), containing the world's largest river, located at around the 90°W longitude, is selected as the study area. Water vapor flux, precipitation, runoff and TWSC are selected as the indices of water mass changes to reveal the relationship between polar motion and water mass change in this giant basin. The Mann-Kendall(M-K) method, the accumulated anomaly analysis method and the curvature method are used to identify the abrupt change points; the least squares method is used to estimate the trends,and the Fast Fourier Transform(FFT) and the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition(EEMD) are used to perform a periodic analysis, for all the above indices. It is shown that, of all the indices from 1948 to 2011, water vapor flux is the most closely related index to polar motion. In detail, precipitation and water vapor flux contain beat periods of polar motion; water vapor flux,precipitation and polar motion have a common M-K test abrupt change point(occurring in ca. 1968) at the 0.05 significance level; water vapor flux has a similar accumulated anomaly curve with that of polar motion; and water vapor flux is more highly correlated with polar motion than most other indexes. It is found, just like global TWSC, the χ2 component of the excitation via water vapor flux and water storage change in the Amazon follows that of observed polar motion; χ1 does not follow. However, the pattern in the Amazon that the χ2 component of the excitation by water follows that of observed polar motion is at a more significant level than in global. Finally, the new index termed Location of Vapor-based Inter Tropical Convergence Zone(LVITCZ) we proposed to describe the annual mean latitudinal location of water mass change shows a more close and visual relationship between water mass change and polar motion than other chosen indices do.     

Influence of rainfall and soil properties spatial aggregation on extreme flash flood response modelling: An evaluation based on the Sesia river basin,North Western Italy

High resolution radar rainfall fields and a distributed hydrologic model are used to evaluate the sensitivity of flood and flash flood simulations to spatial aggregation of rainfall and soil properties at catchment scales ranging from 75 to 983 km². Hydrologic modeling is based on a Hortonian infiltration model and a network-based representation of hillslope and channel flow. The investigation focuses on three extreme flood and flash flood events occurred on the Sesia river basin, North Western Italy, which are analysed by using four aggregation lengths ranging from 1 to 16 km. The influence of rainfall spatial aggregation is examined by using the flow distance as a spatial coordinate, hence emphasising the role of river network in the averaging of space–time rainfall. The effects of reduced and distorted rainfall spatial variability on peak discharge have been found particularly severe for the flash flood events, with peak errors up to 35% for rainfall aggregation of 16 km and at 983 km² catchment size. Effects are particularly remarkable when significant structured rainfall variability combines with relatively important infiltration volumes due to dry initial conditions, as this emphasises the non-linear character of the rainfall–runoff relationship. In general, these results confirm that the correct estimate of rainfall volume is not enough for the accurate reproduction of flash flood events characterised by large and structured rainfall spatial variability, even at catchment scales around 250 km². However, accurate rainfall volume estimation may suffice for less spatially variable flood events. Increasing the soil properties aggregation length exerts similar effects on peak discharge errors as increasing the rainfall aggregation length, for the cases considered here and after rescaling to preserve the rainfall volume. Moreover, peak discharge errors are roughly proportional to runoff volume errors, which indicates that the shape of the flood wave is influenced in a limited way by modifying the detail of the soil property spatial representation. Conversely, rainfall aggregation may exert a pronounced influence on the discharge peak by reshaping the spatial organisation of the runoff volumes and without a comparable impact on the runoff volumes.     

Parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis of SWAT model in upper reaches of the Heihe river basin

Heihe river basin, the second largest inland river basin in China, has attracted more attention in China due to the ever increasing water resources and eco‐environmental problems. In this article, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool; http://www.brc.tamus.edu/swat/ ) model was applied to upper reaches of the basin for better understanding of the hydrological process over the watershed. Parameter uncertainty and its contribution on model simulation are the main foci. In model calibration, the aggregate parameters instead of the original parameters in SWAT model were used to reduce the computing effort. The Bayesian approach was employed for parameter estimation and uncertainty analysis because its posterior distribution provides not only parameter estimation but also uncertainty analysis without normality assumption. The results indicated that: (1) SWAT model performs satisfactorily in this watershed as a whole, although some low and high flows were under‐ or overestimated, particularly in dry (e.g. 1991) and wet (e.g. 1996) years; (2) all calibrated parameters were not normally distributed (essentially positively or negatively skewed) and the parameter uncertainties were relatively small; and (3) the contributions of parameter uncertainty on model simulation uncertainty were relatively small. Copyright © 2009 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Changes to flood peaks of a mountain river: implications for analysis of the 2013 flood in the Upper Bow River,Canada

The mountain headwater Bow River at Banff, Alberta, Canada, was subject to a large flood in June 2013, over which considerable debate has ensued regarding its probability of occurrence. It is therefore instructive to consider what information long‐term streamflow discharge records provide about environmental change in the Upper Bow River basin above Banff. Though protected as part of Banff National Park, since 1885, the basin has experienced considerable climate and land cover changes, each of which has the potential to impact observations, and hence the interpretations of flood probability. The Bow River at Banff hydrometric station is one of Canada's longest‐operating reference hydrological basin network stations and so has great value for assessing changes in flow regime over time. Furthermore, the station measures a river that provides an extremely important water supply for Calgary and irrigation district downstream and so is of great interest for assessing regional water security. These records were examined for changes in several flood attributes and to determine whether flow changes may have been related to landscape change within the basin as caused by forest fires, conversion from grasslands to forest with fire suppression, and regional climate variations and/or trends. Floods in the Upper Bow River are generated by both snowmelt and rain‐on‐snow (ROS) events, the latter type which include flood events generated by spatially and temporally large storms such as occurred in 2013. The two types of floods also have different frequency characteristics. Snowmelt and ROS flood attributes were not correlated significantly with any climate index or with burned area except that snowmelt event duration correlated negatively to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. While there is a significant negative trend in all floods over the past 100 years, when separated based on generating process, neither snowmelt floods nor large ROS floods associated with mesoscale storms show any trends over time. Despite extensive changes to the landscape of the basin and in within the climate system, the flood regime remains unchanged, something identified at smaller scales in the region but never at larger scales. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Modelling water fluxes for the analysis of diffuse pollution at the river basin scale

Diffuse pollution is a significant and sometimes even major component of surface water pollution. Diffuse inputs of pollutants to the surface water are related to runoff of precipitation. This means that the analysis of diffuse pollutant fluxes from the land surface to the surface water requires an analysis of water fluxes. In this paper we have modelled the average long‐term total runoff, groundwater recharge index and groundwater residence times for two large European river basins (Rhine and Elbe). We applied and compared two independently developed and recently published methods. We found that with the available large‐scale databases and methods we could simulate successfully the regional patterns of the average long‐term total runoff. The reported groundwater recharge indices and groundwater residence times should be interpreted as estimates based on available knowledge and databases. They do not represent absolute values, but illustrate the possible travel times and spatial patterns of the different runoff components that have to be taken into account for the analysis of diffuse pollution at large regional and temporal scales. Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.