济南市人口城市化和土地城市化的关系研究

改革开放以来,济南市社会经济发展迅速,城市化水平大幅度提高。选取济南市1996—2010年间的总人口、非农业人口、建成区面积等相关数据,运用Excel和SPSS对数据进行处理和相关分析,定量地探讨了济南市人口城市化和土地城市化之间的关系。研究结果表明,济南市的土地城市化速度明显快于人口城市化速度,并因此导致一系列的社会、经济等问题,并在对这些问题的分析基础上提出了相应的对策建议。     

四川省稻飞虱发生程度及趋势预报

分析了稻飞虱发生与气象要过之间相关性，利用逐步判别法对四川省稻飞虱的发生程度进行预报，其预报效果较好。     

黑龙江省城市化进程的地域差异分析

2006年,黑龙江省城市化程度达58．6％居全囝上游,然而与其他发达城市相比,存在虚高成分,而且质量粗放,缺乏内涵,是一种不彻底的城市化状态。面对这样的困境,在东北老工业基地改造的背景下,理顺黑龙江省城市化发展的进程,探索适应新型工业化发展的新型城市化发展道路就具有及其重要的现实意义。     

四川省农村居民收入与消费的协整研究

通过对1978-2007年四川省农村居民收入与消费的协整分析,发现农村居民的收入与消费之间存在着长期均衡的关系,在协整检验的基础上,建立了误差修正模型,说明了误差修正系数对偏离长期均衡的调整力度.     

社会发展趋势对住宅业发展的影响

长期以来,我国住宅业实行福利分房制度,这种制度未能体现按劳分配的原则,也未能很好地改善居民的居住条件。为了加快住宅业的发展,国家大力推行住房制度改革,实行住宅商品化,这使我国住宅业得到了巨大发展,但同时住宅业发展也存在一些的问题。主要体现在两个方面:一是大量商品房空置。1995年底全国的空置商品房5,031万平方米,1998年底则超过1亿平方米,年递增达30％,其中空置一年以     

宝鸡电厂灰场污染物运移趋势

本文运用非饱和带纯水流模型,预报未来灰场污染物运移趋势。作者依据过去10年污染深度及含水量分布值,以非线性规划理论为基础,建立识别模型,反演求参(D(θ)和K(θ).从研究区水文地质条件出发,建立一维非饱和流预报模型,采用有限差分数值逼近法求解。通过运营模型,预报了未来20年污染深度为4.0～6.0m,从而得出该灰场对地下水无影响的结论.     

地震趋势预测的一种新模型研究

 本文根据自激励门限自回归模型原理,对多年的地震活动形势进行了分析,建立了用于地震大形势分析的客观化数值预测模式-在线预测模型。根据1980年以来中国大陆实际发生的地震资料对这一模型的可靠性进行了检验。统计结果表明,利用在线预测模型在对未来地震趋势进行预测时,其年度形势特征量的最大误差为0.3,平均误差为0.12;因此该模型能够比较客观地反映地震形势变化的自然特征及规律,较好的预测未来的地震活动趋势。这一模型的建立为促进地震趋势向客观化、定量化预测方向发展,提供了一种科学途径     

中国沿海开放城市的城市化质量比较研究

以我国首批14个沿海开放城市为研究对象,从经济、社会、环境和城乡一体化4个方面选取12个评价指标,运用主成分分析法对其城市化质量进行评价,然后采用聚类分析法和协调度模型法分析城市化质量与水平的协调性。研究表明:(1)影响沿海开放城市的城市化质量的主要因子可归结为经济社会发展水平、居民生活质量、环境保护和城乡协调发展4个因子,其中经济社会发展水平是最重要的影响因子;(2)城市化质量存在明显差异:广州、上海和大连为I类城市化质量城市,宁波、烟台、青岛、天津、秦皇岛、福州为II类,南通、湛江和温州为III类,连云港和北海为IV类;(3)城市化水平高并不代表城市化质量高,反之亦然。城市化质量和水平相协调的城市,其二者相对统一,反之则相偏离;(4)从城市化质量与城市化水平协调性看,秦皇岛、温州、福州、湛江为质量滞后型,天津为质量轻度滞后型,上海、宁波、大连、广州、南通为质量协调型,北海、青岛、连云港为质量轻度超前型,烟台为质量超前型。     

三维动态趋势面模型在地面沉降分析中的应用

在趋势面拟合模型的基础上考虑时间项,建立三维动态趋势面模型,并通过模拟数据验证模型的适用性,最后对南沙地区GPS沉降监测网数据进行分析。结果表明,三维动态趋势面模型可以反映区域沉降的整体时空变化趋势,并具有良好的时空插值效果。     

大学对城市化集聚及经济区位的影响分析

城市化的过程,也是社会生产力集聚的过程,因此形成的城市集聚效应是导致区域间的经济位势。城市区域的集聚效应和区位位势的变化,符合博奕均衡的精炼纳什模式,分析这一模式的数理特征,有利于充分认识集聚的规律,从而在新经济条件下,大学功能对城市作用的延伸,既体现在发挥其人才,知识,智力,文化甚至经济的集聚作用,又可以遵循集聚规律,发挥大学的集聚效率。     

四川省物流服务需求实证研究

选取货物周转量代表物流服务需求量,应用灰色系统理论,对四川省铁路、公路、水运和民航的物流服务需求分别建立灰色预测模型进行预测,并按公路的物流服务需求量对四川省21个市、区进行聚类.在此基础上,对四川省"十一·五"期间的物流服务需求进行了综合分析.     

SCENARIOS SIMULATION OF COUPLING SYSTEM BETWEEN URBANIZATION AND ECO-ENVIRONMENT IN JIANGSU PROVINCE BASED ON SYSTEM DYNAMICS MODEL

1IN T R O D U C T IO NU rbanizationand eco-environment coupling is uniqueand complex,and itsmechanisms and ruleshave pro-voked much scholarship(B RENNA,1999).More than100yearsago,HOWARD(1898)publishedG ardenC ities of Tom orrow to revealthe interrelationshibpes-tween citygrowth and itseco-environment,and he triedtodealwiththeissuewithrationalplanningway,buthefailed(BOURNE and SIMMONS,1978).However,onlysincethe1920s had thetopicspeciallybeen intensfiied.AftertheChicago schoolhad…     

Empirical Analysis on Urbanization Patterns in Zhejiang Province Based on Spatial Economy and GIS

1 Introduction For the two past decades of economic reforms in China, the urbanization level has risen dramatically from 17.92% in 1978 to 41.8% in 2004, with the average an- nual increase in the urbanized population of 3.3%. Owing to the social and economic factors, however, the agri- culture, rural area and farmer, named “three agricul- ture-related problems” in the country, have benefited little from the rapid and unprecedented process of ur- banization (Lin and Ho, 2003). Conversely, as…     

The developmental characteristics and strategic ideas of urbanization in China

Since cities and towns are places where those nonagricultural industries are centralized, urbanization is greatly interrelated with industrialization and de-agriculturalization. By means of this kind of interrelationship, Chinese urbanization level may be estimated with the formulas: P1=I1/I0/u0, Pr = N1/N0/u0. The urbanization after the founding of the People's Republic of China can be divided into the following 5 stages: the stage at the out set of industrialization (1949-1957); the high-speed urbanization stage (1958-1960); the first counter-urbanization stage (1961-1965); the second counter-urbanization stage (1966-1976); and the high-speed urbanization stage (1978-now). The characteristics of Chinese urbanization are: the industrialization launched by the government; the simultaneous development of urbanization of cities and urbanization of rural areas; the quite low capability of urbanization to absorb nonagricultural labor force; the incoordinate development of cities, etc. Before establishing a     

Grey-relation Analysis of Traffic System and Urbanization in Jilin Province of China

It has been long believed there should be some relations between traffic system and urbanization,but the in-teraction between them,especially on the regional level,has been not in consideration due to the difficulty in quantitative analysis.Based on the development of Jilin Province during 1981-2003,the paper analyzed the relation with the grey-relation model which was adjusted to fit specific problem,and came to some conclusions.Firstly,there exists ob-vious and strong correlation between traffic system and urbanization.Secondly,urbanization responds to the develop-ment of traffic system mainly on the level of urbanization,such as population and developed area,however,less on urbanization quality.Thirdly,traffic system influences urbanization as a whole except for several peculiar factors,which means we should optimize the whole traffic system to promote urbanization.Based on those conclusions,the paper illustrated the mechanism of traffic system,promoting urbanization scale and urbanization quality.     

Reconsideration of the urbanization research in China

Theappearanceofmodemurbancommunityisanoutcomeofindustrializationandsocialdevelopment.ThecityitseIfindicatestheconcentrationofpopulation,toolofproduction,capital,enjoymentanddemand.Asaspecialintensive1ivingspace,citymay,inthecourseofmodernization,gatherandagglomeratevariousre-sourcestoitsown,andreflectandspreaditsfunctionstoperipheralareasaswell,whichistheprocessofur-banization.Nomatterasatermoraphenomenon,sinceitwasfirstused'intheworks"FundamentalTheoryofU,ba.i.ati.."bytheSpanishengineerA.S…     

Environmental sustainability and scenarios of urbanization in arid area

Based on data of questionnaire and field survey and two developing models of Business As Usual (BAU) and the Intensive Urbanization (IU), this article, taking Wuwei City, a medium size city and typical oasis arid area in Gansu Province with very vulnerable and sensitive natural environment but long history of oasis economy, as an example, evaluated the sustainability of its environment and analyzed the scenarios of Wuwei’s household energy consumption, waste discharge in transportation industry, primary industry, secondary industry, tertiary industry, by the integration of the systematical dynamics model Stella and Polestar language to simulate the future development of the research area. The results showed that, first, the developing model of IU was propitious to Wuwei City named for oasis economy and vulnerable natural environment. The strategy of "Intensive Urbanization" can change the structure of energy utilization, and improve the efficiency of energy utilization. Second, the proportion of domestic energy consumption will decrease with industrialization and economic development, while that of tertiary industry, secondary industry and transportation will gradually grow up according to strategy of "Intensive Urbanization". Third, the Wuwei City is facing a severe eco-environmental crisis under the conventional patterns of development and a better future under a sustainable urbanization scenario, in the next 10 to 20 years. The different developing trends were clarified and the relative countermeasures were put forward for the policy makers according to the driving forces. Foundation item: Under the auspices of Key Program of the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 90102013) and Key Innovation Sub-project of Chinese Academy of Sciences (No. KZCX1-10-07-04) Biography: YOU Fei (1972–), male, a native of Pianguan of Shanxi Province, Ph.D., assistant professor, specialized in regional sustainable development and ecological economy. E-mail: yofae@sina.com     

Discussion on sustainable urbanization in Tibet

After 1995,Tibet entered the stage of accelerated urbanization.The large floating population from outside Tibet has become the driving force for urban expansion and the rising of urbanization rate.After analyzing the changes of urban functions and spatial structure of urban system in Tibet,this paper argues that before 1995 the urbanization in Tibet was mainly driven by administrative function,resulting in certain population migration,whereas in the past dec-ade economic function has become the key factor accelerating urban expansion with the market mechanism creating large-scale inflow of population.The floating population-based urbanization and high population growth in the agri-cultural and pastoral areas of Tibet has promoted the regional economic prosperity,but exerted resources and environ-mental pressure and brought some problems for Tibetan culture protection at the same time.The conflicts and contra-dictions between urbanization and the sustainability of natural resources,environment and social development have been intensified.Addressing these problems,this paper proposes some countermeasures for improving the sustainabil-ity of Tibetan urbanization.     

RURAL-URBAN LABORERS''MOBILITY AND URBANIZATION IN CHINA

（孟晓晨）ＲＵＲＡＬ－ＵＲＢＡＮＬＡＢＯＲＥＲＳ＇ＭＯＢＩＬＩＴＹＡＮＤＵＲＢＡＮＩＺＡＴＩＯＮＩＮＣＨＩＮＡ￥ＭｅｎｇＸｉａｏｃｈｅｎ（ＰｅｋｉｎｇＵｎｉｖｅｒｓｉｔｙ，Ｂｅｉｊｉｎｇ１００８７１，ＰＲＣ）Ａｂｓｔｒａｃｔ：Ｕｒｂａｎｉｚａｔｋｉｎ...