2000—2009年锡林郭勒典型草原植被对气象因子的响应

应用MODIS数据对2000—2009年植被变化情况及其与气温、降水量进行相关分析。2007年年均气温最高,降水最少,NDVI最大值和生长季平均值最低;在降水量最大的2003年NDVI最大值和生长季平均值最高。全生长季中气温和降水量与NDVI值具有显著或极显著相关,相对于气温、降水量对NDVI值影响更大;前一个月的气温和降水量对NDVI值的影响最大,植被对气象因子的响应具有时滞性。     

IPCC AR6报告解读：陆地和淡水生态系统及其服务变化

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第二工作组（WGII）报告的第二章表明,气候变化对陆地和淡水生态系统影响的范围和程度较前期评估结果更为严峻。人为气候变化导致生态系统结构、功能和恢复力恶化,生物群落转移,疾病的传播范围和发病率增加,野火燃烧面积增加和持续时间延长,局部地区物种灭绝,极端天气的频率和强度增加。未来气温升高2~4℃情景下,陆地和淡水生态系统中高灭绝风险物种占比为10%~13%,野火燃烧面积增加35%~40%,森林地区50%以上树木面临死亡风险,15%~35%的生态系统结构发生转变,碳损失持续增加,气温的升高将进一步加剧这些风险造成的严重且不可逆的影响。通过生态系统保护和恢复等人为适应和减缓措施,可以在一定程度的气候变化范围内保护生态系统的生物多样性并增强生态系统服务在气候变化下的恢复力。加剧的气候变化将阻碍适应措施的制定和实施,为保证措施的有效性需要考虑气候变化的长期影响并加快适应措施的部署。     

Historical variation in guano production from the Peruvian and Benguela upwelling ecosystems

Analysis of the historical record shows that reductions in guano production in the eastern tropical Atlantic Ocean were not related to El Niño events in the Pacific. Guano production in the Atlantic was negatively correlated with guano production in the Pacific. Significant reductions in guano production in the Atlantic occurred 1 to 4 years after increases in guano production in the Pacific. Negative association is consistent with the hypothesis that global shifts in weather associated with the Southern Oscillation affect guano production.     

陆地生态系统固碳速率立体监测方法:进展与挑战

全球CO₂浓度增加造成的全球变暖已成为人类亟需解决的问题,陆地生态系统在过去几十年一直扮演着重要的碳汇角色,吸收了30％左右的人类活动排放CO₂。本文调研分析了陆地生态系统固碳速率空间估算方法,包括样地调查、通量监测、模型模拟、遥感估算等,梳理了各种估算方法的研究现状与进展。样地调查、通量观测等方法可以提供点尺度的固碳速率直接测量信息,但存在观测样本有限、空间代表性不足等问题。模型模拟方法可以从机理的角度描述陆地碳、水、能量循环,模拟预测陆地生态系统固碳速率的状态和变化。然而,在模型建立过程中,抽象和简化会引入结构与假设的不确定性,以及模型驱动数据引入的不确定性等问题是碳循环模型模拟方法面临的重大挑战。卫星遥感具有全球覆盖、分辨率精细、时间序列观测等优点,结合机器学习方法,为地球大数据驱动的全球碳源汇估算提供了新的研究范式。但是,当前各种固碳速率的监测方法还没有满足高度时空异质性的陆地生态系统固碳量监测需求,未来需要整合地面观测、模型模拟和卫星遥感等多种技术手段,提供区域和全球尺度的陆地生态系统碳汇精确估算方法体系和科学数据产品。     

Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS＇s Model Climate Change Scenario

Net primary production （NPP） of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO2 in agro-ecosystem, and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling. By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system （GIS） techniques, crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050. The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0℃ over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC A1B scenario. With a spatial resolution of 10 ×10 km^2, model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr^-1 （Tg=10^12 g） would be possible under the A1B scenario. The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5% （30 Tg C） within the 98×10^6 hm^2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s. A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China. A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China, while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China. The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.     

Effects of observed and experimental climate change on terrestrial ecosystems in northern Canada: results from the Canadian IPY program

Tundra and taiga ecosystems comprise nearly 40?% of the terrestrial landscapes of Canada. These permafrost ecosystems have supported humans for more than 4500?years, and are currently home to ca. 115,000 people, the majority of whom are First Nations, Inuit and Métis. The responses of these ecosystems to the regional warming over the past 30?C50?years were the focus of four Canadian IPY projects. Northern residents and researchers reported changes in climate and weather patterns and noted shifts in vegetation and other environmental variables. In forest-tundra areas tree growth and reproductive effort correlated with temperature, but seedling establishment was often hindered by other factors resulting in site-specific responses. Increased shrub cover has occurred in sites across the Arctic at the plot and landscape scale, and this was supported by results from experimental warming. Experimental warming increased vegetation cover and nutrient availability in most tundra soils; however, resistance to warming was also found. Soil microbial diversity in tundra was no different than in other biomes, although there were shifts in mycorrhizal diversity in warming experiments. All sites measured were sinks for carbon during the growing season, with expected seasonal and latitudinal patterns. Modeled responses of a mesic tundra system to climate change showed that the sink status will likely continue for the next 50?C100?years, after which these tundra systems will likely become a net source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere. These IPY studies were the first comprehensive assessment of the state and change in Canadian northern terrestrial ecosystems and showed that the inherent variability in these systems is reflected in their site-specific responses to changes in climate. They also showed the importance of using local traditional knowledge and science, and provided extensive data sets, sites and researchers needed to study and manage the inevitable changes in the Canadian North.     

Uncertainties in projected impacts of climate change on European agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems based on scenarios from regional climate models

The uncertainties and sources of variation in projected impacts of climate change on agriculture and terrestrial ecosystems depend not only on the emission scenarios and climate models used for projecting future climates, but also on the impact models used, and the local soil and climatic conditions of the managed or unmanaged ecosystems under study. We addressed these uncertainties by applying different impact models at site, regional and continental scales, and by separating the variation in simulated relative changes in ecosystem performance into the different sources of uncertainty and variation using analyses of variance. The crop and ecosystem models used output from a range of global and regional climate models (GCMs and RCMs) projecting climate change over Europe between 1961–1990 and 2071–2100 under the IPCC SRES scenarios. The projected impacts on productivity of crops and ecosystems included the direct effects of increased CO₂ concentration on photosynthesis. The variation in simulated results attributed to differences between the climate models were, in all cases, smaller than the variation attributed to either emission scenarios or local conditions. The methods used for applying the climate model outputs played a larger role than the choice of the GCM or RCM. The thermal suitability for grain maize cultivation in Europe was estimated to expand by 30–50% across all SRES emissions scenarios. Strong increases in net primary productivity (NPP) (35–54%) were projected in northern European ecosystems as a result of a longer growing season and higher CO₂ concentrations. Changing water balance dominated the projected responses of southern European ecosystems, with NPP declining or increasing only slightly relative to present-day conditions. Both site and continental scale models showed large increases in yield of rain-fed winter wheat for northern Europe, with smaller increases or even decreases in southern Europe. Site-based, regional and continental scale models showed large spatial variations in the response of nitrate leaching from winter wheat cultivation to projected climate change due to strong interactions with soils and climate. The variation in simulated impacts was smaller between scenarios based on RCMs nested within the same GCM than between scenarios based on different GCMs or between emission scenarios.     

Modeling soil thermal and hydrological dynamics and changes of growing season in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems

Abundant evidence indicates the growing season has been changed in the Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems in the last century as climate warms. Reasonable simulations of growing season length, onset, and ending are critical to a better understanding of carbon dynamics in these ecosystems. Recent ecosystem modeling studies have been slow to consider the interactive effects of soil thermal and hydrological dynamics on growing season changes in northern high latitudes. Here, we develop a coupled framework to model these dynamics and their effects on plant growing season at a daily time step. In this framework, we (1) incorporate a daily time step snow model into our existing hydrological and soil thermal models and (2) explicitly model the moisture effects on soil thermal conductivity and heat capacity and the effects of active layer depth and soil temperature on hydrological dynamics. The new framework is able to well simulate snow depth and soil temperature profiles for both boreal forest and tundra ecosystems at the site level. The framework is then applied to Alaskan boreal forest and tundra ecosystems for the period 1923–2099. Regional simulations show that (1) for the historical period, the growing season length, onset, and ending, estimated based on the mean soil temperature of the top 20 cm soils, and the annual cycle of snow dynamics, agree well with estimates based on satellite data and other approaches and (2) for the projected period, the plant growing season length shows an increasing trend in both tundra and boreal forest ecosystems. In response to the projected warming, by year 2099, (1) the snow-free days will be increased by 41.0 and 27.5 days, respectively, in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems and (2) the growing season lengths will be more than 28 and 13 days longer in boreal forest and tundra ecosystems, respectively, compared to 2010. Comparing two sets of simulations with and without considering feedbacks between soil thermal and hydrological dynamics, our analyses suggest coupling hydrological and soil thermal dynamics in Alaskan terrestrial ecosystems is important to model ecosystem dynamics, including growing season changes.     

Soil thermal dynamics of terrestrial ecosystems of the conterminous United States from 1948 to 2008: an analysis with a process-based soil physical model and AmeriFlux data

The spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of soil temperature are a significant, but seldom described signal of climate warming. This study examines the spatiotemporal trends in soil temperature at depths of 10, 20, and 50 cm in the conterminous US during 1948–2008. We find a warming trend of between 0.2 and 0.4 °C at all depths from 1948 to 2008. The lowest soil temperatures are in Colorado and the area where Wyoming, Idaho, and Montana meet. The coastal areas, such as Texas, Florida, and California, experienced the highest soil temperature. In addition, areas that experienced weak cooling in summer soil temperature include Texas, Oklahoma, and Arkansas. Warming was recorded in Arizona, Nevada, and Oregon. In winter, Mississippi, Alabama, and Georgia show a cooling trend, and Montana, North Dakota, and South Dakota have been warming over the 61-year period. Additionally, mix-forest areas experience slightly cooler soil temperature in comparison with air temperature. Shrubland areas experience slightly warmer soil temperature in comparison with air temperature. This study is among the first to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of soil temperature in the conterminous US by using multiple site observational data. Improved understanding of the spatially complex responses of soil temperature shall have significant implications for future studies in climate change over the region.     

Water color and its relation to primary production

It is shown both experimentally and theoretically that the depth of the euphotic zone is related to the color of the sea defined as a color index equal to the ratio of the upwelling blue (450 nm) and green (525 nm) nadir daylight just below the sea surface. The relationship is valid for most sea waters where the albedo from the bottom is negligible near the sea surface and where the composition of suspended and dissolved matter is not largely determined either by water drainage from land or by turbidity currents. The standing stock of phytoplankton and its primary productivity within the euphotic zone can approximately be given in terms of the color of the sea. The accuracy in determining each of the above two biological quantities from color measurements at the sea surface is not satisfactory at present. This holds particularly true when the color of the sea is measured remotely by present satellite techniques.     

Simulating Crop Net Primary Production in China from 2000 to 2050 by Linking the Crop-C model with a FGOALS's Model Climate Change Scenario

Net primary production(NPP)of crop represents the capacity of sequestrating atmospheric CO_2 in agro-ecosystem,and it plays an important role in terrestrial carbon cycling.By linking the Crop-C model with climate change scenario projected by a coupled GCM FGOALS via geographical information system (GIS)techniques,crop NPP in China was simulated from 2000 to 2050.The national averaged surface air temperature from FGOALS is projected to increase by 1.0℃over this period and the corresponding atmospheric CO_2 concentration is 535 ppm by 2050 under the IPCC AIB scenario.With a spatial resolution of 10×10 km~2,model simulation indicated that an annual average increase of 0.6 Tg C yr~(-1)(Tg=10~(12)g) would be possible under the AIB scenario.The NPP in the late 2040s would increase by 5%(30 Tg C) within the 98×10~6 hm~2 cropland area in contrast with that in the early 2000s.A further investigation suggested that changes in the NPP would not be evenly distributed in China.A higher increase would occur in a majority of regions located in eastern and northwestern China,while a slight reduction would appear in Hebei and Tianjin in northern China.The spatial characteristics of the crop NPP change are attributed primarily to the uneven distribution of temperature change.     

Estimation of critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems on the territory of Russia

Developed are the axiomatics and criteria for estimating the critical levels of climate change influence on the natural terrestrial ecosystems based on the revelation of key climate-dependent environmental elements and model analysis of their variations. Developed is an empirical statistical vegetation model for the territory of Russia considering 15 vegetation zones including five ones in the permafrost zone. The model was used to estimate the proximity of the climate impact on the natural terrestrial ecosystems to the critical level for several climate projections.     

青藏高原1981～2000年植被净初级生产力对气候变化的响应

基于分辨率为0.1°×0.1°的植被、土壤和气象数据,利用大气-植被相互作用模型（AVIM2）模拟研究了青藏高原1981～2000年植被净初级生产力（NPP）对气候变化的响应。结果表明：青藏高原近20年自然植被（森林、草地和灌木）受气温和降水量增加的影响,NPP总量呈现上升趋势。灌木和森林NPP总量分别以每年1.14％和0.88％的速度增加,均达到统计上的显著性水平。草地NPP上升趋势不如灌木和森林显著。降水量变化对森林和草地NPP的影响高于气温变化对它们的影响,而降水量变化对灌木的影响则小于气温变化影响。总的区域平均来看,尽管1981～2000年青藏高原年平均净辐射通量略有降低,但由于平均气温以0.058 ℃·a-1的速率增加,且降水量略有增长,降水量与气温的共同作用使得青藏高原植被NPP总量呈上升趋势。     

The protection of Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems from inter- and intra-continental transfer of non-indigenous species by human activities: A review of current systems and practices

Invasions by non-indigenous species are amongst the greatest threats to global biodiversity, causing substantial disruption to, and sometimes local extinction of, individual species and community assemblages which, in turn, can affect ecosystem structure and function. The terrestrial environment of Antarctica consists of many isolated ‘islands’ of ice-free ground. Prolonged isolation makes Antarctic biodiversity vulnerable to human-mediated impacts, in particular (1) the introduction of non-indigenous species from outside Antarctica, and (2) the redistribution of indigenous Antarctic species between biologically distinct areas within the continent. The Protocol on Environmental Protection to the Antarctic Treaty, the primary instrument through which environmental management is addressed within the Antarctic Treaty System, says little about unintentional introduction of non-indigenous species to Antarctica, and nothing specifically about human-mediated transfer of native species from one area to another. We review the effectiveness of the Antarctic protected area system, the primary means through which area-specific environmental protection is achieved under the Antarctic Treaty System. This reveals that the measures described in most Antarctic Specially Protected Area (ASPA) and Antarctic Specially Managed Area (ASMA) Management Plans, by themselves, may not be sufficient to (1) minimise the possibility of introduction of plants, animals and microbes not native to the protected area or (2) adequately protect the many unusual assemblages of species, type localities or only known habitats of certain species found in Antarctica. We discuss issues that should be considered in the development of a more effective system, including the implementation of appropriate biosecurity measures across different spatial scales and applied to different biological groups.     

1981-2008年中国陆地植被NPP对气候变化响应的敏感性试验

在验证CENTURY模型对中国陆地植被净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity,NPP)模拟能力的基础上,利用该模型探讨了1981-2008年中国陆地植被NPP的年际变异和变化趋势对CO₂浓度、温度和降水变化的响应。结果表明,中国陆地植被NPP对不同气候因子的响应程度存在明显不同。其中,CO₂浓度变化对植被NPP年际变异的影响不显著,但能够引起中国大部分地区植被NPP趋势系数增大;温度对中国中高纬度地区植被NPP的年际变化影响显著,但就全国范围而言,植被NPP年际变异对温度变化的响应程度总体低于对降水变化的响应程度;降水变化是对中国植被NPP变化趋势起主导作用的气候因子。此外,综合考虑温度和降水变化的影响发现,植被NPP变化趋势的响应特征类似于降水单独变化时植被NPP变化趋势的响应特征。     

2006-2009年南京地区闪电活动分布特征

利用2006-2009年江苏省闪电监测定位系统资料,对南京地区闪电活动特征进行了分析,发现闪电集中发生在6-8月的12-20时,其他各月闪电频数较低,这主要是由于南京夏季对流活动频繁,且在午后至傍晚的时间段内,气温偏高,较易产生强对流的雷暴天气等原因造成的.南京地区大部分区域的平均雷击大地密度值介于2～6次/(km²·a)之间,平均雷击大地密度极大值中心出现在江宁区,平均雷击强度值介于5～40kA之间,南京长江大桥附近出现了平均雷击强度极大值的中心,最大值达75kA以上.地形地貌、下垫面性质、水汽条件等因素可能是导致上述特征的主因.所获得的闪电活动特征闪电参数在雷电防护、雷击风险评估等领域具有一定的应用价值.     

1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统碳通量变化特征及其驱动因子

陆地生态系统碳汇显著降低大气CO₂浓度上升和全球变暖的速率,受人类活动和气候变化的影响,陆地生态系统碳通量具有强烈的时空变化,其估算结果仍存在较大的不确定性,不同因子的贡献尚不清晰。为此,利用遥感驱动的陆地生态系统过程模型BEPS模拟分析了1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统碳通量的时空变化特征,评价了大气CO₂浓度、叶面积指数(Leaf Area Index, LAI)、氮沉降、气候变化对全球陆地生态系统碳收支变化的贡献。1981—2019年全球陆地生态系统总初级生产力(Gross Primary Productivity, GPP)、净初级生产力(Net Primary Productivity, NPP)和净生态系统生产力(Net Ecosystem Productivity, NEP)的平均值分别为115.3、51.3和2.7 Pg·a^-1(以碳质量计,下同),上升速率分别为0.47、0.21和0.06 Pg·a^-1。全球大部分区域GPP和NPP显著增加,NEP显著上升(p<0.05)...     

利用改进的CASA模型分析三江源区净植被生产力

利用改进CASA模型计算了三江源地区植被净初级生产力(NPP).NPP值在区域上呈现由东南向西北递减的趋势,黄河源区东南部地区的植被NPP值较高,而长江源西北部的植被生长稀疏;2004—2008年三江源区NPP值呈略下降趋势,2006年该区植被的NPP年总量最大为62.93 Tg·a^-1,2005年NPP总量最小为60.9 Tg·a^-1;从季节分布来看,NPP值从5月开始增加,到7月达到最大,随后又逐渐降低.三江源地区草甸植被NPP值最大为188.95 g·m^-2·a^-1;高寒草原为129.41 g·m^-2·a^-1.其中,草原植被受气候年际变化影响相对较大,高寒草原年际变化表现为2004—2006持续上升.NPP的波动主要是由于该地区的温度、年降水量以及年太阳总辐射量等因素的变化造成的.在海拔较高的地区,温度与NPP的呈极显著相关,相关系数为0.8,而降水量与NPP的相关系数为0.7.