Predicting the Amplitude of a Solar Cycle Using the North – South Asymmetry in the Previous Cycle: II. An Improved Prediction for Solar Cycle 24

Recently, using Greenwich and Solar Optical Observing Network sunspot group data during the period 1874 – 2006, Javaraiah (Mon. Not. Roy. Astron. Soc. 377, L34, 2007: Paper I), has found that: (1) the sum of the areas of the sunspot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the Sun’s northern hemisphere and in the time-interval of −1.35 year to +2.15 year from the time of the preceding minimum of a solar cycle n correlates well (corr. coeff. r=0.947) with the amplitude (maximum of the smoothed monthly sunspot number) of the next cycle n+1. (2) The sum of the areas of the spot groups in 0° – 10° latitude interval of the southern hemisphere and in the time-interval of 1.0 year to 1.75 year just after the time of the maximum of the cycle n correlates very well (r=0.966) with the amplitude of cycle n+1. Using these relations, (1) and (2), the values 112±13 and 74±10, respectively, were predicted in Paper I for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. Here we found that the north – south asymmetries in the aforementioned area sums have a strong ≈44-year periodicity and from this we can infer that the upcoming cycle 24 will be weaker than cycle 23. In case of (1), the north – south asymmetry in the area sum of a cycle n also has a relationship, say (3), with the amplitude of cycle n+1, which is similar to (1) but more statistically significant (r=0.968) like (2). By using (3) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle with a better accuracy by about 13 years in advance, and we get 103±10 for the amplitude of the upcoming cycle 24. However, we found a similar but a more statistically significant (r=0.983) relationship, say (4), by using the sum of the area sum used in (2) and the north – south difference used in (3). By using (4) it is possible to predict the amplitude of a cycle by about 9 years in advance with a high accuracy and we get 87±7 for the amplitude of cycle 24, which is about 28% less than the amplitude of cycle 23. Our results also indicate that cycle 25 will be stronger than cycle 24. The variations in the mean meridional motions of the spot groups during odd and even numbered cycles suggest that the solar meridional flows may transport magnetic flux across the solar equator and potentially responsible for all the above relationships. The author did a major part of this work at the Department of Physics and Astronomy, UCLA, 430 Portola Plaza, Los Angeles, CA 90095-1547, USA.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Wavelet Analysis of the Schwabe Cycle Properties in Solar Activity

Properties of the Schwabe cycles in solar activity are investigated by using wavelet transform. We study the main range of the Schwabe cycles of the solar activity recorded by relative sunspot numbers, and find that the main range of the Schwabe cycles is the periodic span from 8-year to 14-year. We make the comparison of 11-year‘s phase between relative sunspot numbers and sunspot group numbers. The results show that there is some difference between two phases for the interval from 1710 to 1810, while the two phases are almost the same for the interval from 1810 to 1990.     

Estimating the Size and Timing of the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

A simple statistical method is used to estimate the size and timing of maximum amplitude of the next solar cycle (cycle 24). Presuming cycle 23 to be a short cycle (as is more likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about December 2006 (±2 months) and the maximum, around March 2011 (±9 months), and the amplitude is 189.9 ±15.5, if it is a fast riser, or about 136, if it is a slow riser. If we presume cycle 23 to be a long cycle (as is less likely), the minimum of cycle 24 should occur about June 2008 (±2 months) and the maximum, about February 2013 (±8 months) and the maximum will be about 137 or 80, according as the cycle is a fast riser or a slow riser.     

Verification of a Similar Cycle Prediction for the Ascending and Peak Phases of Solar Cycle 23

Reviews of long-term predictions of solar cycles have shown that a precise prediction with a lead time of 2 years or more of a solar cycle remains an unsolved problem. We used a simple method, the method of similar cycles, to make long-term predictions of not only the maximum amplitude but also the smoothed monthly mean sunspot number for every month of Solar Cycle 23. We verify and compare our prediction with the latest available observational results.     

The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

Some Characteristics of the Ionospheric Behavior During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

The Solar Cycle 23?–?24 minimum has been considered unusually deep and complex. In this article we study the ionospheric behavior during this minimum, and we have found that, although observable, the ionosphere response is minor and marginally exceeds the range of normal geophysical variability of the system. Two main ionospheric parameters have been studied: vertical TEC (vTEC, total electron content) and NmF2 (peak concentration of the F region). While vTEC showed a consistent modest decrease of the mean value, NmF2 behavior was less clear, with instances where the mean value for the minimum 23?–?24 was even higher that for the minimum 22?–?23. More extensive work is required to gain a better understanding of the ionospheric behavior under conditions similar to those presented in the last minimum.     

Phase Space Analysis: The Equilibrium of the Solar Magnetic Cycle

We present the results of a statistical study of the solar cycle based on the analysis of the superficial toroidal magnetic field component phase space. The magnetic field component used to create the embedded phase space was constructed from monthly sunspot number observations since 1750. The phase space was split into 32 sections (or time instants) and the average values of the orbits on this phase space were calculated (giving the most probable cycle). In this phase space it is shown that the magnetic field on the Sun’s surface evolves through a set of orbits that go around a mean orbit (i.e., the most probable magnetic cycle that we interpret as the equilibrium solution). It follows that the most probable cycle is well represented by a van der Pol oscillator limit curve (equilibrium solution), as can be derived from mean-field dynamo theory. This analysis also retrieves the empirical Gnevyshev – Ohl’s rule between the first and second parts of the solar magnetic cycle. The sunspot number evolution corresponding to the most probable cycle (in phase space) is presented.     

Three Super Active Regions in the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We analyze the magnetic configurations of three super active regions, NOAA 10484, 10486 and 10488, observed by the Huairou Multi-Channel Solar Telescope (MCST) from 2003 October 18 to November 4. Many energetic phenomena, such as flares (including a X-28 flare) and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), occurred during this period. We think that strong shear and fast emergence of magnetic flux are the main causes of these events. The question is also of great interest why these dramatic eruptions occurred so close together in the descending phase of the solar cycle.     

Organization of Energetic Particles by the Solar Wind Structure During the Declining to Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.     

Does the Poleward Migration Rate of the Magnetic Fields Depend on the Strength of the Solar Cycle?

We present the pattern of the polar magnetic reversal for cycle 23 derived from H synoptic charts and have also included the reversals of the earlier cycles 18–22 for comparison. At the beginning of a new cycle (i.e., soon after the polar reversal) the zonal boundaries of unipolar magnetic regions of opposite polarities (seen as filament bands on the synoptic charts) appear close to and on either side of the equator continuing through the years of minimum indicating the onset of the cancellation of flux at these low latitudes. The cycle thus starts with cancellation of flux close to the equator and ends with the polar reversal or flux cancellation near the poles. The filament bands just below the polemost ones migrate and reach latitudes 35°–45° by the time of polar reversal and become the polemost, once the polar reversal has taken place. During the years of minimum that follow, these filament bands remain more or less stagnant at the latitudes 35°–45° except for occasional slow migration towards the equator. The migration to the poles starts at a low speed of 3 m s^–1 only when the spot activity has risen to a significant level and then it accelerates to 30 m s^–1 at the peak of the activity. It takes 3–4 years for the polemost bands to reach the poles moving at these high speeds. We quantify this possible cause and effect phenomenon by introducing the concept of the `strength of the solar cycle' and represent this by either of a set of three parameters. We show that the velocity of poleward migration is a linear function of the `strength of the solar cycle'.     

Structural Invariance of Sunspot Umbrae over the Solar Cycle: 1993 – 2004

Measurements of maximum magnetic flux, minimum intensity, and size are presented for 12 967 sunspot umbrae detected on the National Aeronautics and Space Administration/National Solar Observatory (NASA/NSO) spectromagnetograms between 1993 and 2004 to study umbral structure and strength during the solar cycle. The umbrae are selected using an automated thresholding technique. Measured umbral intensities are first corrected for center-to-limb intensity dependence. Log-normal fits to the observed size distribution confirm that the size-spectrum shape does not vary with time. The intensity – magnetic-flux relationship is found to be steady over the solar cycle. The dependence of umbral size on the magnetic flux and minimum intensity are also independent of the cycle phase and give linear and quadratic relations, respectively. While the large sample size does show a low-amplitude oscillation in the mean minimum intensity and maximum magnetic flux correlated with the solar cycle, this can be explained in terms of variations in the mean umbral size. These size variations, however, are small and do not substantiate a meaningful change in the size spectrum of the umbrae generated by the Sun. Thus, in contrast to previous reports, the observations suggest the equilibrium structure, as manifested by the invariant size-magnetic field relationship, as well as the mean size (i.e., strength) of sunspot umbrae do not significantly depend on the solar-cycle phase.     

Different Periodicities in the Sunspot Area and the Occurrence of Solar Flares and Coronal Mass Ejections in Solar Cycle 23 – 24

In order to investigate the relationship between magnetic-flux emergence, solar flares, and coronal mass ejections (CMEs), we study the periodicity in the time series of these quantities. It has been known that solar flares, sunspot area, and photospheric magnetic flux have a dominant periodicity of about 155 days, which is confined to a part of the phase of the solar cycle. These periodicities occur at different phases of the solar cycle during successive phases. We present a time-series analysis of sunspot area, flare and CME occurrence during Cycle 23 and the rising phase of Cycle 24 from 1996 to 2011. We find that the flux emergence, represented by sunspot area, has multiple periodicities. Flares and CMEs, however, do not occur with the same period as the flux emergence. Using the results of this study, we discuss the possible activity sources producing emerging flux.     

Changes in Quasi-periodic Variations of Solar Photospheric Fields: Precursor to the Deep Solar Minimum in Cycle 23?

Possible precursor signatures in the quasi-periodic variations of solar photospheric fields were investigated in the build-up to one of the deepest solar minima experienced in the past 100 years. This unusual and deep solar minimum occurred between Solar Cycles 23 and 24. We used both wavelet and Fourier analysis to study the changes in the quasi-periodic variations of solar photospheric fields. Photospheric fields were derived using ground-based synoptic magnetograms spanning the period 1975.14 to 2009.86 and covering Solar Cycles 21, 22, and 23. A hemispheric asymmetry in the periodicities of the photospheric fields was seen only at latitudes above ±?45^° when the data were divided into two parts based on a wavelet analysis: one prior to 1996 and the other after 1996. Furthermore, the hemispheric asymmetry was observed to be confined to the latitude range of 45^° to 60^°. This can be attributed to the variations in polar surges that primarily depend on both the emergence of surface magnetic flux and varying solar-surface flows. The observed asymmetry along with the fact that both solar fields above ±?45^° and micro-turbulence levels in the inner-heliosphere have been decreasing since the early- to mid-nineties (Janardhan et al. in Geophys. Res. Lett. 382, 20108, 2011) suggest that around this time active changes occurred in the solar dynamo that governs the underlying basic processes in the Sun. These changes in turn probably initiated the build-up to the very deep solar minimum at the end of Cycle 23. The decline in fields above ±?45^°, for well over a solar cycle, would imply that weak polar fields have been generated in the past two successive solar cycles, viz. Cycles 22 and 23. A continuation of this declining trend beyond 22 years, if it occurs, will have serious implications for our current understanding of the solar dynamo.     

Influence of the 11-Year Solar Cycle on Variations of Cosmic Ray Intensity

The monthly cosmic ray intensity (CRI) time series from Climax, Huancayo, Moscow, Kiel, and Calgary are used to investigate the presence of the 11-year periodic component with special attention paid to the solar influence on these variations. The results show obvious 11-year temporal characteristics in CRI variations. We also find a close anticorrelation between the 11-year solar cycle and CRI variations and time delays of the CRI relative to solar activity.     

Did Predictions of the Maximum Sunspot Number for Solar Cycle 23 Come True?

For solar cycle 23, the maximum sunspot number was predicted by several workers, and the range was very wide, 80–210. Cycle 23 started in 1996 and seems to have peaked in 2000, with a smoothed sunspot number maximum of 122. From about 20 predictions, 8 were within 122±20. There is an indication that a long-term oscillation of 80–100 years may be operative and might have peaked near cycle 20 (1970), and sunspot maxima in cycles in the near future may be smaller and smaller for the next 50 years or so and rebound thereafter in the next 50 years or so.     

The Solar Cycle 23?�C?24 Minimum. A Benchmark in Solar Variability and Effects in the Heliosphere

Given the numerous ground-based and space-based experiments producing the database for the Cycle 23??C?24 Minimum epoch from September 2008 to May 2009, we have an extraordinary opportunity to understand its effects throughout the heliosphere. We use solar radiative output in this period to obtain minimum values for three measures of the Sun??s radiative output: the total solar irradiance, the Mg ii index, and the 10.7 cm solar radio flux. The derived values are included in the research summaries as a means to exchange ideas and data for this long minimum in solar activity.     

Short-Term Periodicities in Sunspot Activities During the Descending Phase of Solar Cycle 23

In the present study, the short-term periodicities in the daily data of the sunspot numbers and areas are investigated separately for the full disk, northern, and southern hemispheres during Solar Cycle 23 for a time interval from 1 January 2003 to 30 November 2007 corresponding to the descending and minimum phase of the cycle. The wavelet power spectrum technique exhibited a number of quasi-periodic oscillations in all the datasets. In the high frequency range, we find a prominent period of 22 – 35 days in both sunspot indicators. Other quasi-periods in the range of 40 – 60, 70 – 90, 110 – 130, 140 – 160, and 220 – 240 days are detected in the sunspot number time series in different hemispheres at different time intervals. In the sunspot area data, quasi-periods in the range of 50 – 80, 90 – 110, 115 – 130, 140 – 155, 160 – 190, and about 230 days were noted in different hemispheres within the time period of analysis. The present investigation shows that the well-known “Rieger periodicity” of 150 – 160 days reappears during the descending phase of Solar Cycle 23, but this is prominent mainly in the southern part of the Sun. Possible explanations of these observed periodicities are delivered on the basis of earlier results detected in photospheric magnetic field time series (Knaack, Stenflo, and Berdyugina in Astron. Astrophys. 438, 1067, 2005) and solar r-mode oscillations.