流域演化与泥石流的系统性——以云南东川蒋家沟为例

以典型的云南东川蒋家沟为例,根据Strahler面积-高程曲线的积分将其分区,揭示了流域的演化差异.证明了泥石流发生在特定的演化区域,并具有特定的物质组成.通过概率模型,定性说明了泥石流在流域的形成和扩张,其结果就表现为间歇性的阵流.阵流的时空特征反过来证明了泥石流的系统性.统计还表明,阵流的流量分布和衰减取决于最大流量;最大流量序列很好继承了作为流域系统行为的动力学特征.最后,可以根据单沟泥石流的过程系统考察区域泥石流活动.泥石流在大尺度水系的分布,从概率过程看,完全等同于泥石流源地小分支在单个流域的分布,而且满足相似的分布特征.     

蒋家沟泥石流源地的特征

所谓泥石流源地乃是泥石流物质(水体和土体)来源地和这些物质起动、混合而成泥石流的地区,即包括泥石流物质源地、泥石流形成和汇流的源地。 蒋家沟泥石流物质源地有两,一为水源地,二为土源地。水源地面积大,达39.9平方公里,遍布于流域中、上游;土源地面积小,约为26.4平方公里,位于水源区内,沿干支流两岸分布。     

泥石流源地土体应力应变特性对降雨响应过程的分析——以蒋家沟泥石流为例

根据对蒋家沟泥石流源地的崩塌、滑坡、散流坡,在旱季与雨季不同时段,降雨入渗后的土壤含水状况观测,以及泉水季节性变化,详细分析了泥石流源地崩塌、滑坡、散流坡土体的应力应变特性对降雨的响应过程差异.在雨季滑坡临空面和滑坡体内的土体含水量分别为6.67%、4.8%,滑坡活动主要是通过前缘剪出口崩塌方式补给下方沟床.崩塌体由于土体结构极为松散,在雨季该土体含水量通常高达8.85%～16%,使其土体的抗剪强度(C、φ)处于极限应力状态,一旦遇到降雨浸润和冲刷,迅速触变液化,转化为高浓度泥石流的侵蚀产沙过程.     

从蒋家沟泥石流阵流看泥石流堆积

野外观测和实验证明，泥石流的堆积是经过无数随机的“元堆积”叠加形成的。“元堆积”保留了泥石流的活动特征。根据云南东川蒋家沟泥石流阵流资料和阵流的数值模拟，发现堆积厚度与阵流的深度和速度，在统计上是一致的，说明了堆积与运动之间的系统性联系。这种联系为泥石流活动的系统性和泥石流灾害的评估提供了新的线索。     

云南蒋家沟古泥石流特征

蒋家沟流域在小江大断裂东侧的隆起地段,这一区域构造活动强烈。自第四纪以来,受到内、外动力地质作用的共同影响,蒋家沟在河流沉积及泥石流堆积作用下形成了阶梯状台地。实地考察蒋家沟各支沟残留台地的沉积构造、新鲜坡面的古泥石流活动记录,根据泥石流堆积物的沉积特征,初步划分泥石流类型。再结合现有的泥石流容重计算方法和各泥石流台地泥石流堆积物的颗粒分析实验结果,可计算出蒋家沟不同泥石流活跃期泥石流的天然容重,还原了蒋家沟第四纪以来不同时期泥石流活动特征。最后讨论了泥石流在不同时期发生变化的原因。     

泥石流堆积的分布

野外观测和实验模拟表明，泥石流堆积是通过若干阵流在保持相对完整的形态下叠加形成的。本文利用蒋家沟阵流的观测数据，根据阵流流深一流速关系和各自分布，并结合浊流的堆积分布、数值模拟的流深、堆积分布，提出泥石流堆积厚度的分布具有与流深相同的负幂分布形式，并估计了分布指数的下限。结果表明，泥石流堆积厚度的分布很不均匀，分布的估计为堆积区的危险性的划分提供了新的定量依据。     

试析小流域土力类粘性泥石流的汇流过程——以滇东北大凹子沟为例

在分析土力类泥石流的产流特征和规律，尤其是土源与水源关系的基础上，将水文学上常用的等流时线法的基本原理应用于小流域土力类粘性泥石流的汇流计算。在具体的计算中，以滇东北蒋家沟的一支沟－大凹子沟1994－06－16的泥石流为例进行泥石流汇流流量过程的试算。计算的结果应用观测的一些数值及现象和弯道超高的最大流量计算值检验，结果表明此计算大体可以定量地反映该流域流量的过程。通过此汇流计算还可以了解阵性泥石流与连续泥石流的产生关系和机理，也可以了解降雨时段与产流时段及汇流过程时段的差别。该研究的结果也存在主客观的局限性，这一局限性反映了进一步探讨流域的产流量规律、流域等流时区划分的规律、大流域汇流计算和泥石流的波坦化规律的必然性。     

云南东川蒋家沟宽级配砾石土原位渗透试验初步研究

土体的渗透试验是研究滑坡转化泥石流起动过程和机理的重要研究手段。选择泥石流典型流域——云南东川蒋家沟的泥石流源地土体和堆积土体进行原位土体渗透试验。由于宽级配砾石土的与众不同的特征，表现出特殊的渗透特性。通过试验发现：1．泥石流源地土体的渗透特性的原位渗透系数依次由大到小顺序为林地→耕地→灌丛→荒地→滑坡前缘；2．有表层的堆积土体的渗透性比去除了表土层的渗透性小得多；3．堆积土体的侧渗性很大。结合蒋家沟径流与人工降雨实验，发现在宽级配砾石土体中渗流出的浑水中有许多细颗粒土体，可以认为宽级配砾石土体的渗流不同于一般的渗透，其伴随有细颗粒土体的运移，随时间发展土体渗透性在空间上和时间上都在不断变化。     

泥石流运动流型与流态特征

泥石流的运动流型与流态是研究泥石流运动力学的重要内容。以云南东川蒋家沟泥石流运动观测为例,对阵流型、连续型、复合型三种流型及相应的流量过程特征进行了分析;借鉴水力学的流态理论,对天然沟遭中泥石流的流动状态(即层动流、波动流现象)进行了探讨分析,指出在一阵流动过程中也会出现几种不同流态特征。     

颗粒组成与泥石流运动的涨落

泥石流物源、流体和堆积物的颗粒分布满足P(D)=CD~(-μ)exp(-D/Dc),其中参数C,μ和D_c由传统的粒径分布特征决定。μ随细颗粒(特别是粘粒)含量的增大而增大,D_c刻画粒径的范围,且随粗粒含量而增大。蒋家沟泥石流的观测表明,同一场泥石流包含着数十到数百个不同性质、流态和规模的阵流。阵流的涨落和多样性是与流体的颗粒组成密切相关的。一定的颗粒组成对应着一定的饱和颗粒浓度,决定一定的饱和流体状态。阵流的涨落,是在没有达到饱和状态时的随机运动的状态。阵流涨落随D_c增大而趋于平缓;当流体达到饱和态时,阵流达到最大的流深、流速和流量,且与颗分参数(μ,D_c)具有幂函数关系。运用本文的方法,可根据颗分参数来预估泥石流的性质和规模。     

泥石流的阵性波状运动

首先描述了在云南东川蒋家沟观测到的在粘性泥石流运动过程中的铺床作用，阵次交替的波状运动，以及相关的波的分化、叠加等现象。然后具体分析了阵性波不同部分的速度分布特征，给出了泥石流龙身部分的速度剖面示意图，并提出龙头是以滚动方式在残留层上运动的。两者间存在物质循环流动。由实测数据推算的波速表明阵性波是一种急流。最后从波的空间形态和传播速度的角度将泥石流的波状运动分为缓波、滚动短波和滚动长波。     

粘性泥石流残留层的形成及减阻作用--以云南蒋家沟泥石流为例

通过对云南蒋家沟粘性泥石流的野外观测 ,讨论了粘性泥石流残留层的定义特征 ,在大量实测数据基础上 ,分析了残留层易形成时段的特性 ;分别对一次泥石流过程、若干阵泥石流和一阵泥石流残留层的变化进行了相关分析 ;最后用观测数据分析了泥石流残留层的减阻作用     

Sediment transportation and deposition by rain-triggered lahars at Merapi Volcano,Central Java,Indonesia

A lahar is a general term for a rapidly flowing mixture of rock debris and water (other than normal streamflow) from a volcano and refers to the moving flow. Located in the populated area of Central Java, the stratovolcano Merapi (2965 m) is prone to lahar generation, due to three main factors: (1) millions of cubic meters of pyroclastic deposits are the product of frequent pyroclastic flows, which have occurred on 2- to 4-year intervals; (2) rainfall intensity is high (often 40 mm in 2 h on average) during the rainy season from November to April; and (3) drainage pattern is very dense. Following the 22 November 1994 eruption of Merapi, 31 rain-triggered lahar events were recorded in the Boyong River between December 1994 and May 1996.On Merapi's slopes, instantaneous sediment concentration at any given time of the lahars varies widely over time and space. Lahars are transient sediment-water flows whose properties are unsteady, so that the sediment load fluctuates during the flow. The boundary between the flow types (debris flow, with sediment concentration >60% volume, or hyperconcentrated flow, with sediment concentration ranges from 20% to 60% volume) may fluctuate within the flow itself. Grain-size distribution, physical composition of sediments, shear stress, yield stress, and water temperature play each a role on this boundary. Natural self-damming and rapid breakout are partly responsible for the sediment variations of the flows.Debris-flow phases at Merapi typically last a few minutes to 10 min, and are often restricted to the lahar front. Debris-flow surges are sometimes preceded and always followed by longer hyperconcentrated flow phases. As a result, mean sediment concentration of the lahars is low, commonly from 20% to 50% volume. Besides, transient normal streamflow phases (sediment concentration <20% volume) can occur between two debris-flow surges.Low sediment load and frequent transient flows in the Merapi channels may result from at least three factors: (1) several breaks-in-slope along the channel increase the deposition rate of sediment, and hinder the bulking capacity of the lahars; (2) source material is mainly coarse debris of “Merapi-type” block-and-ash flows. Consequently, the remobilization of coarse debris is more difficult and the clast deposition is accelerated; (3) variations of rainfall intensity over time and space, common in tropical monsoon rainfall, also influence the sediment load variations of the lahars.Sedimentologic analyses of the lahar deposits in the Boyong River at Merapi encompass clast-supported and matrix-supported debris-flow deposits, hyperconcentrated flow deposits, and streamflow deposits. The stratigraphic succession of massive and stratified beds observed immediately after any given lahar event in the Boyong River indicates that the sediment concentration varies widely over time and space during a single lahar event. Sedimentation rate varies from 3 to 4.5 cm/min during relatively long-lived surges to as much as 20 cm/min during short-lived surges. These results indicate that the sediment load fluctuates during lahar flow, further demonstrating that lahars are transient sediment-water flows with unsteady flow properties.     

泥石流流域的形态特征

泥石流是特殊的流域侵蚀作用,同其他流域过程一样,密切联系着流域的形态特征.一般说来,泥石流都发生在小流域(102km2以下),而经典的流域形态研究所涉及的流域范围却达到107km2的尺度.我们想知道泥石流小流域是否具有特殊的数量特征.通过流域特征量的统计,我们看到,与一般流域相比,泥石流小流域的特征参数之间的关系形式上相同,而在数值上不同,这从一个方面肯定了流域演化存在着普遍规律(如自组织临界性),同时也证明泥石流是流域演化历史的"特殊一幕".     

Mud aprons in front of Svalbard surge moraines: Evidence of subglacial deforming layers or proglacial glaciotectonics?

Large debris-flow units commonly occur on the distal sides of subaqueous end moraines deposited by surges of Svalbard tidewater glaciers, but have rarely been described in terrestrial settings. Some researchers have argued that these kinds of debris flows reflect processes unique to the subaqueous environment, such as the extrusion of subglacial deforming layers or extensive failure of oversteepened moraine fronts. In this paper, we describe terrestrial and subaqueous parts of a single late Holocene moraine system deposited by a major surge of the tidewater glacier Paulabreen in west Spitsbergen. The ice-marginal landforms on land closely resemble the corresponding landforms on the seabed as evidenced by geomorphic mapping and geophysical profiles from both environments. Both onland and offshore, extensive areas of hummocky moraine occur on the proximal side of the maximum glacier position, and large mud aprons (interpreted as debris flows) occur on the distal side. We show that the debris-flow sediments were pushed in front of the advancing glacier as a continuously failing, mobile push moraine. We propose that the mud aprons are end members of a proglacial landforms continuum that has thrust-block moraines as the opposite end member. Two clusters of dates (~ 8000 YBP and ~ 700 YBP) have previously been interpreted to indicate two separate surges responsible for the moraine formation. New dates suggest that the early cluster indicates a local extinction of the abounded species Chlamys islandica. Other changes corresponding to the widespread 8.2 ka event within the fjord, may suggest that the extinction of the C. islandica corresponds to that time.     

On analysis and forecasting of surges on the west coast of Great Britain

Summary. Surges are analysed by the regression technique. On the west coast of Britain surges are strongly correlated with meteorological variables such as barometric pressure and winds. The north—south component of wind is more effective than the east-west component in the generation of surges at Fish-guard and Portpatrick. The surge elevations at these ports are linearly proportional to the wind velocity. This pattern changes near Liverpool where the east—west component of wind dominates the development of surges. Here the surges are related to the square of the wind velocity. Moreover, the north-south component of wind over St George's Channel is marginally more effective than the north—south component of wind in the local area of the port, which suggests that a component of the surge near Liverpool is transported through St George's Channel. Spatial correlations of Fishguard, Holyhead and Liverpool surges also support this result. However, it is found that the forrnulation of a regression equation with simultaneous input of meteorological variables and spatial surges is ill-conditioned. Non-linearity resulting from surge-tide interaction is negligible at Fishguard and Portpatrick. The development of non-linearity starts when surges progress from Fishguard to Holy-head. The non-linear component is small near Holyhead but becomes a significant part of surges observed at Liverpool. The non-linear component may be represented as a modulation of the tide by a slow time-varying component of the surge. The component of surge variance which can be estimated by the regression model is over 70 per cent for Liverpool, 60 per cent for Holyhead and 50 per cent for Fishguard.     

Spatiotemporal changes of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012

In this study, we analyzed the spatiotemporal variation of cold surges in Inner Mongolia between 1960 and 2012 and their possible driving factors using daily minimum temperature data from 121 meteorological stations in Inner Mongolia and the surrounding areas. These data were analyzed utilizing a piecewise regression model, a Sen+Mann- Kendall model, and a correlation analysis. Results demonstrated that (1) the frequency of single-station cold surges decreased in Inner Mongolia during the study period, with a linear tendency of -0.5 times/10a (-2.4 to 1.2 times/10a). Prior to 1991, a significant decreasing trend of -1.1 times/10a (-3.3 to 2.5 times/10a) was detected, while an increasing trend of 0.45 times/10a (-4.4 to 4.2 times/10a) was found after 1991. On a seasonal scale, the trend in spring cold surges was consistent with annual values, and the most obvious change in cold surges occurred during spring. Monthly cold surge frequency displayed a bimodal structure, and November witnessed the highest incidence of cold surge. (2) Spatially, the high incidence of cold surge is mainly observed in the northern and central parts of Inner Mongolia, with a higher occurrence observed in the northern than in the central part. Inter-decadal characteristic also revealed that high frequency and low frequency regions presented decreasing and increasing trends, respectively, between 1960 and 1990. High frequency regions expanded after the 1990s, and regions exhibiting high cold surge frequency were mainly distributed in Tulihe, Xiao’ergou, and Xi Ujimqin Banner. (3) On an annual scale, the cold surge was dominated by AO, NAO, CA, APVII, and CQ. However, seasonal differences in the driving forces of cold surges were detected. Winter cold surges were significantly correlated with AO, NAO, SHI, CA, TPI, APVII, CW, and IZ, indicating they were caused by multiple factors. Autumn cold surges were mainly affected by CA and IM, while spring cold surges were significantly correlated with CA and APVII.     

气候变化背景下中国风暴潮灾害风险及适应对策研究进展

风暴潮是沿海地区在强烈的大气扰动条件下产生的异常增水现象,并受海平面上升等因素的影响。中国风暴潮灾害频繁,其中尤以东南沿海地区发生频率较高,灾害损失严重。本文从风暴潮灾害的危险性、承灾体的易损性、综合风险区划3个方面系统总结风暴潮灾害的研究进展及存在的主要问题;并以风暴潮灾情特征及风险评估为基础,探讨气候变化对风暴潮灾害风险的影响及其适应对策。气候变化引起的海平面上升将影响风暴潮的趋势、周期及风险区域,因而亟待开展结合海平面上升等因素的综合风险评估。充分考虑气候变化背景下沿海地区自然条件变化及社会经济发展状况,注重短期与长期相结合,完善风险评估体系。为适度、有序的适应气候变化下风暴潮灾害风险,中国在应急预警机制、工程防御及政策法规等适应能力建设方面不断完善,以提高风暴潮灾害的防灾减灾能力。     

1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮分布的时空特征

搜集到1368-1911年苏沪浙地区风暴潮记录2119条,以此为基础,重建区域历史风暴潮发生的时间序列与空间分布。从年内分布情况看,苏沪浙地区历史风暴潮主要发生在6-10月,其中7-9月占80%,8月为全年最高值,占37%。68.56%的历史风暴潮发生在农历朔望日前后,其中发生在朔日前后（农历二十七至次月初四）的占35.57%,发生在望日前后（农历十三至十九）的占32.99%。小波分析结果显示：风暴潮年际变化时间序列存在54 a、30 a、17 a周期。历史风暴潮引起的海侵多发生在沿海地区,苏北地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达4 m高程,长三角地区历史风暴潮海侵淹没界线达5 m高程,杭州湾沿岸、浙东沿海地区则分别达5 m和6 m高程。     

The interaction of surge and tide in the North Sea and River Thames

Summary. Although the tendency for surge peaks in the Thames to occur on rising tide has been recognized for some time, no satisfactory physical explanation has been presented. The phenomenon almost certainly results from non-linear interaction between tide and surge and it is the mechanism of this interaction which is examined in the present study.
A statistical analysis of surges recorded at 10 ports located along the east coast of Britain demonstrated the development of interaction as surges propagate southwards. This analysis showed that surges tend to develop a peak on the rising tide in the Thames irrespective of the phase relationship between tide and surge in the northern North Sea.
A one-dimensional model of the River Thames was used to examine how surge-tide interaction varied for surges of differing types. In order to identify the mechanics of interaction, a new modelling technique was developed involving two models, one of tidal propagation and one of surge propagation, operated simultaneously with cross-linkages in the form of perturbation terms providing the effects of interaction. By this means it was shown that quadratic friction is the dominant interaction mechanism in the Thames.