Growth of rural population in Punjab, 1971-81

Except for the decade 1941-1951, in which Punjab's population declined because of a huge exchange of population between India and Pakistan and a large loss of life, the decade 1971-1981 was the 1st decade since 1911 to experience a deceleration in the growth rate of the rural population of Punjab, India. The deceleration was due to out-migration to urban areas. The scheduled caste population increased 28.37% between 1971 and 1981, while the nonscheduled caste population increased by only 13.32%, which was considerably below the rate of natural increase. Nonscheduled castes had experienced substantial out-migration because of 1) improved transport and communication facilities which enabled them to move to urban centers; 2) mechanization of main farming operations and easy availability of migrant laborers which lessened the need for family labor; 3) the rise of a relatively mobile younger generation with a high literacy rate; 4) rapidly decreasing land holdings which strengthened the push factor in the countryside; and 5) rising aspirations, especially among the younger generation. In 1981, Sikhs constituted 71.3% of the rural population in Punjab, followed by Hindus (26.51%), Christians (1.25%), and Muslims (.89%). From 1971-1981, Muslims experienced the greatest increase (49.29%). Sikhs grew by 20.74% and Hindus by 9.02%. The Sikhs high growth rate was due to 1) a new technique for counting religious affiliation in which all members of a household are considered the same religion as the head of household and 2) conversion of Hindus to Sikhism. Hindus had a low growth rate because 1) the new method of counting religious affiliation and 2) rural-urban migration. The area with the lowest population increase resulted from industrialists and other nonagriculturists buying farmland, causing the agriculturists to move away to less desirable land. Conclusions are 1) the sharp rural-urban division along religious lines should be lessened, 2) Sikhs' lag in urbanization and upward mobility should be decreased, and 3) nonagriculturalists should be prevented from buying farm land from peasants along main roads and around urban centers.     

Growth of rural population: a case study of Patiala district,Punjab

"Based on the census data, the present paper focuses on patterns of rural population growth in the Patiala district [India] during 1951-81. The striking spatial variations in growth rate were associated largely with migration differentials in the study area. Similarly, there were wide differentials in the population growth rates between scheduled castes and non-scheduled castes and among different religious communities. The proportion of different castes and communities to the total population changed due to their uneven growth rates."     

中国近期农村人口迁移态势研究

采用第四次、第五次人口普查所获得的人口迁移数据,分析了中国农村人口迁移在全国总迁移人口中的地位变化的省际总体特征和个体特征,探讨了各省级单元农村人口迁移在总人口迁移中的地位在20世纪80年代和90年代随时间变化的原因。进一步重点研究了中国农村人口迁移的时空分布格局,分别从省际、省内两个空间尺度,分迁入、迁出两个角度对中国农村人口迁移的规模和流向态势进行了深入分析。     

基于手机信令数据的城内迁居活跃度识别方法研究——以武汉市为例

中国城市的快速发展加速了城市内部人口的居住迁移,精细测度居民迁居行为及其空间分异特征,对于从人的行为视角来分析城市居住空间结构演进过程具有现实意义。本文以武汉都市发展区为例,基于手机信令大数据,提出净活跃度指标和总活跃度指标来量化描述迁居活跃度,并依据两个指标的分类及组合,将居民居住地划分为高迁入型活跃区、平稳型活跃区、高迁出型活跃区、高迁入型非活跃区、平稳型非活跃区与高迁出型非活跃区六种空间类型,进而探讨居民迁居的空间分布特征。结果表明：① 武汉都市发展区内部人口迁移总体呈现出从主城区向近郊区逐步迁移的趋势,且主城区人口总活跃度相较更高。② 主城区以高迁出型活跃区和高迁入型活跃区为主,近郊区则以平稳型非活跃区为主。③ 不同空间类型内的居住类型存在差异：高迁入型活跃区内以新建小区、高校住区、学区房、城中村为主;平稳型活跃区以农村居住地、园区周边住宅为主;高迁出型活跃区以老旧小区、园区周边住宅、城中村、农村居住地为主;非活跃区则以农村居住地为主。本文提出了一种基于时序手机信令大数据的居民迁居活跃度评价指标体系,并以实证研究证明其对于居民迁居地空间类型划分的有效性,研究结果可为相关规划决策部门掌控城市内部的人口迁移特征提供数据支撑、为城市不同区域针对性的进行公共资源配置提供参考依据。     

全面二孩背景下中国省际人口迁移格局预测及城镇化效应

采用第六次中国人口普查数据,基于全面二孩实施背景,预测未来中国与省际城乡人口规模以及省际人口迁移规模;采用2010年人口数据和2020年预测人口数据,从对比视角分析了中国省际人口迁移格局变化及其对城镇化发展的影响。研究发现：① 城乡全面放开二孩政策不会带来区域人口数量的剧烈反弹;② 综合考虑省际人口迁移方向与强度,将中国31个省份划分为4种类型;③ 省际人口迁移促进了城镇化率的提高及省际差异的缩小,对2010~2020年中国城镇化率的增加的贡献占到了30.77%。     

Distributional pattern of the major agricultural communities (Ahirs,Gujars, Jats and Rajputs) in their traditional abode of the northwestern Indian subcontinent

The author examines the rural spatial distribution patterns in four main agricultural communities of India and Pakistan. Using 1931 census data to project 1988 population figures, a comparison is offered among ethnic relationships, religious backgrounds, castes, and migration patterns. The current socio-political status of these agricultural populations is also discussed.     

Reasons for Returning and Not Returning to Rural U.S. Communities

Population loss persists in nonmetropolitan America, especially in isolated counties with limited natural amenities. Communities in these counties experience high levels of outmigration among high school graduates, but low in-migration is more important in distinguishing declining from growing nonmetropolitan counties, and return migration is a much more prominent component of in-migration to these locationally disadvantaged areas. This research uses a multisited, interview-based methodology to understand the factors that influence decisions of people in their late twenties to late forties to move back to rural communities and the barriers that keep others from making such moves. The life course segment considered here captures a critical “settling down” period when career and family obligations overlap and return migration peaks. Interviews at high school reunions, the only venues where stayers, return migrants, and nonreturn migrants are found together, show that limited rural employment opportunities are barriers for nonreturnees. Others intent on returning find ways to secure or create employment but are primarily influenced to move home by family concerns. Connections to the larger social and physical environment of the community are important as well. Interviews affirm that factors affecting migration decisions work in combination, and ties to both people and place are critical for understanding rural return migration.     

中国省际人口迁移格局演变及其对城镇化发展的影响

基于2000年和2010年人口普查数据,利用多种指标和方法研究了中国省际人口迁移的格局演变及其对城镇化的影响。研究发现：省际迁入和迁出人口在空间分布上均呈分散化态势,迁入迁出重心均向北向东偏移,迁入地由广东省“一枝独秀”向多极化演变,安徽、四川、河南、湖南成为新的四大迁出地。利用净迁移流构建的省际人口迁移网络,表现出紧凑化和均衡化趋势;迁移流仍然是从中西部地区指向东部地区,但新增加迁移流集中指向长三角、京津以及福建。综合考虑省际人口迁移强度和方向,可将全国31个地区划分为净流入型活跃区、平衡型活跃区、净流出型活跃区以及非活跃区四种类型。省际迁移改变了迁入地和迁出地的城乡人口结构,通过不同模式促进了城镇化率的提高和省际差异的缩小,对2000-2010年全国城镇化率增加的贡献占到了18.13%。     

Literacy in India's scheduled caste population: a spatial analysis

Literacy by geographic region in India's scheduled caste population is examined, with a focus on urban-rural and sex differentials. Education, migration, religion, and economic development are considered as factors affecting literacy rates. Data are from official Indian sources for 1981.     

Indians in England: why did they emigrate?

The period of highest migration from India to England was 1955-1975. In 1981, the Bradford metropolitan district had about 13,000 Indians. 46% were Punjabis and 43.3% were from Gujarat. Using a 10% sample of Indian households in the Bradford district in 1984 and secondary information, this study examines the impact of the following reasons on decision to migrate: 1) push factors in the area of origin, 2) the 1947 partition of India, 3) strong economic attraction of the destination, and 4) "cultural ethos" and "status competition" among the migrant communities in the areas of emigration. Findings show that 1) Punjab and Gujarat do not have high poverty levels nor very high population densities; 2) the partition of India did not influence migration decisions; 3) the economic well-being of returning migrants and the high conversion rate of English currency did attract migrants to England (39% of surveyed migrants emigrated to England for purely economic reasons); and 4) 60% of the Punjabis and over 50% of the Gujaratis state that local status competition had a significant influence on their decisions to migrate. Thus, the economic attraction of England and the status competition among local families and the community were the dominant factors in migration decision making.     

An explanation of labor migration and grain output growth: Findings of a case study in eastern Tibetan Plateau

Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandonment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from “corn-wheat” multiple cropping pattern to the “corn” cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration.     

青藏高原东部典型区的劳动力析出与粮食产量增长——2005和2010年的跟踪调查及其解释（英文）

Although there has been rapid rural-urban migration in rural China since the 1980 s, the total grain production of China saw a continuous increase. As of today, the relationship between labor migration and grain output growth remains partial and contradictory. The main aim of this empirical study is to examine some specific measures adopted by peasants to deal with labor shortage and maintain grain output growth. Using tracking survey, participatory rural appraisal methods, and land plot investigation, we investigate 274 households and 1405 arable land plots in four villages in two stages in Jinchuan county, southwestern China. The results show that continuous emigration of labor from the four villages caused the abandonment of a small amount of land, decreased labor intensity, and reduced multiple cropping index, shifting from "corn-wheat" multiple cropping pattern to the "corn" cropping pattern, which means labor shortage in some households. At the same time, owing to surplus labor in the villages, the peasants utilize a series of means to offset the negative impacts of labor migration on grain output, such as cropland transfer, labor exchange in the busy seasons, and the substitution of capital and technology for labor. The econometric analysis also shows that labor migration boosts grain production. This study provides a reasonable explanation of grain output growth under rural-urban migration.     

梯度城镇化的村庄解析：以福建上杭为例

引导农村人口有序地向城镇转移,实现大中小城市和小城镇协调发展,是当前中国经济社会面临的重大问题。归纳总结了农村人口迁徙目的地的4个层次,提出了梯度城镇化的概念,并以福建省上杭县村庄问卷为基础,进行梯度城镇化的村庄解析,辨识不同梯度人口迁徙的影响因素。研究发现：① 村庄人口规模对村庄人口流出具有阻止作用;县城和乡镇吸引农村人口迁入存在明显距离衰减。② 老年人比重高降低了年轻人迁徙到县城的成本,有利于农村人口的县城集聚。较高的少儿抚养比可能会抑制农村人口进入县城居住和拥有住房。③ 教育驱动是县城城镇化的重要动力。高人力资本有流向地级市的趋势。     

Governments' perceptions and policies of population redistribution in East and South East Asia

"This paper is based on the results of the Third Inquiry among Governments on Population and Development carried out in 1977 by the UN Secretariat. It reports on perceptions and policies concerning international migrations, spatial distribution of the national population, internal migration and settlement patterns in fourteen South East and East Asian countries. "It appears that nearly all countries under consideration were concerned with the spatial distribution of population both as a factor related to problems caused by excessive natural increase and as a problem on its own right. The majority of countries were prepared to pursue policies affecting basic trends in internal migration. Most governments declared their willingness to alter patterns of rural or both rural and urban settlement. Only two countries were interested in increasing emigration; the remaining ones were satisfied with the existing levels of international migration."     

Work force of India's scheduled caste population: a spatial perspective

This study was conducted to explore the work force of India's scheduled caste population in a spatial perspective. Findings are based upon data from detailed district-wise maps from data relating to the workers. Peninsular India has a far larger proportion of workers to the total scheduled caste population than northern India. The degree of participation of females trying to earn their living is the most crucial factor in the broad regional differentiation which is then associated with women's social status and autonomy in the society and their freedom from inhibitions to work outside of the home. These factors are deeply rooted in the histories of the two regions and their components. Demographic, economic, and political variables are intermingled with the social and cultural dimensions to impact upon the magnitude and composition of the work force. Further disparities exist within and across macro-regions at meso and micro regional levels which are connected with socioeconomic and demographic specificities of the local/regional situations.     

基于农户调研的中国农村居民点空心化程度研究

基于中国范围的乡村人居环境调研数据,分析了中国农村宅基地空心现象。结果表明：① 中国农村宅基地空心化严重,93.5%的调研村庄有空心化现象,平均空心化率达到10.2%。② 省域农村宅基地空心化差异明显,其中华北、华东、华中地区普遍较高;③ 多种因素导致农村宅基地空心化,认为是“外出务工”、“户口迁移”、“房屋年久失修”及“一户多宅” 的受访者分别占39.94%,19.51%,25.73%和14.82%。④ 中国农村空心化宅基地再利用潜力巨大,但再利用难度大,需要从改革城乡二元体制和乡村空间重构的角度进行空心村整治。     

The role of women in internal migration in Zambia

Zambia's urban population increased from 29% to 43% between 1969-80. Female migration, although modest, played an important role in improving the sex ratio in urban areas. In 1980, there were 962 males/1000 females in Zambia as a whole and 1061/1000 in the urban areas. This compares with 960 males/1000 females in Zambia as a whole in 1969 and 1113/1000 in the urban areas. This overall decrease in the number of males/1000 females in urban areas has had implications for Zambian household structure and for the matrilineal social structure. The single male household traditional to urban areas can be expected to be increasingly replaced by complete households of larger size. Family size has tended to be smaller in provinces that have been affected by outmigration. The historically different propensities of males and females to participate in internal migration has meant that the actual number of family units has been smaller than the potential number. However, this pattern can be expected to normalize as female migration continues to increase. In rural areas, this trend should lead to a decline in the number of female household heads and implications for matrilineal land ownership patterns and agricultural output.     

Migration as a phenomenon and process of population change

This paper relates migration with population growth and economic development. Migration affects both production and consumption; it should therefore be considered at the household-family level and analyzed within the utility maximization model. 1 determinant of internal migration is population pressure on land. Migration in the agricultural sector can provide resources to be reinvested in physical capital for agricultural technological change. Usually the agricultural family sends the maturing son to the city because of his better skills and education than other family members. Migrants are among the first to obtain newly created jobs or displace less qualified workers from existing jobs. Thus, migration initially causes disequilibrium, but since it supports technological improvement on the farms, it becomes an equilibriating mechanism. Migration rates are highest in villages where land is most unequally divided. Some of the main noneconomic determinants of migration include social conflicts, religious outbursts and movements, violence, wars, pestilence, epidemics, caste conflicts, political and ideological differences, and climatic unsuitability. Migration and fertility need to be analyzed at the family level rather than at the societal or micro level.     

岩溶山地聚落人口空间分布与演化模式

中国西南山区人口与聚落的演化对岩溶山区乡村规划、新农村建设、生态系统的管理和石漠化土地的治理有着重要的参考意义。利用长时间序列的高精度航片与卫片,结合实地农户调查,从20世纪60年代至2010年的聚落与人口耦合变化过程出发,在村级景观尺度开展了贵州高原中部典型峰丛洼地及其周边地区聚落空间格局变迁的定量研究,以探讨岩溶山地人口与聚落演化的模式及其机制,揭示聚落变迁过程中的人地关系动态。结果表明：① 在研究区农村37年的发展过程中,尽管农村聚落总数在不断增多,但还是形成了一些规模相对发展较快的中心村、镇;② 自然条件、交通相对较好和原来规模相对较大的聚落得到了优先发展;③ 由于农户外迁,位于中部峰丛洼地区通达性较差的部分规模较小的聚落消失或逐渐空心化;④ 在聚落和人口的自发演变过程中,一方面使部分退化的石漠化土地得到了恢复,另一方面聚落扩展严重占用了相当的优质耕地。     

Disaggregating the historical demographic sources of regional foreign-born and native-born population growth in the United States: a new method with applications

This paper analyzes the demographic processes that contribute to population growth and redistribution in a multiregional system using a new method. The method incorporates a historical perspective that can be used to trace dynamic population processes as they evolve over time. It uses an open multiregional projection model framework in identifying the contributions to regional growth made by each of the principal demographic components of change: fertility, mortality, immigration, emigration, in-migration, and out migration. At the same time, the method recognizes the importance of disaggregating the native-born and foreign-born populations. Available public data and indirect estimation techniques are used to develop the data inputs for the projection model, with which the regional population changes for each 5-year period between 1950 and 1990 were reconstructed. Regional growth rates for the foreign-born and native-born populations are partitioned into the separate demographic components of change, and the projection model identifies the separate contributions to regional growth made by each population. This allows a direct comparison of the impact of immigration with those of corresponding native-born contributions effected through internal migration and natural increases. Finally, the application of the method allows the identification of the contribution that 'recent' (post-1965) immigrant cohorts have made to the composition of the youngest age groups in each region, and also to simulate the impacts of zero immigration scenarios on regional growth.