Recent population growth in India

Apart from a generalized discussion on the trends of population growth in India during the post-Independence decades and its socio economic implications, this paper examinies in some detail the spatal patterns of population change in India during 1971-1981. The discussion is mainly based on what has emerged on 3 maps depicting percentage change in general and rural and urban population change in India during this decade. While areas of rapid growth of population continue to be associated with net in-migration resulting from: 1) the development of manufacturing industries, mining, trade, and miscellaneous services, all leading to acceleration in the process of urbanization, 2) the development of irrigation and reclamation of land bringing about increased intensity and extension in farming, and 3) infiltration from neighboring countries, particularly from Bangladesh. The areas of relatively low growth are mostly those which have suffered net out-migration induced by pressure of population and paucity of resources or a desire to seek better avenues of employment elsewhere. Superimposed on this is the new trend of declining rate of natural increase, such as in Kerala and Tamil Nadu, which has played its own role in bringing down the overall growth rate. Likewise there are areas, such as in Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Rajasthan, where recent breakthroughs in the mortality rate, with the birth rate staying at a high level, has stepped up the process of demographic dynamism. A comparison of the spatial patterns of 1971-1981 with those witnessed in precious decades brings out important chnges in these patterns which are occurring as a result of the various areas of the country getting into different phases of the second stage of the "demographic transition." With a view to bringing the benefits of socioeconomic progress to the door steps of all sections of the society in all parts of the country, it is necessary to bring about a substantial decline in the birth rate without any further loss of time.     

Dynamics of population growth: Bundelkhand region--a case study

This paper analyzes the growth of population and its various characteristics in the Bundelkhand region of India. Bundelkhand region--a distinct histocultural and geographic unit--is a transitional zone between the 2 major physiographic divisions of India: the Gangetic plain and Peninsular India. The region is a less developed part of India where people are living in low social status with poor economic conditions; agriculture is the mainstay of the people, but the region suffers from the inadequacy and inefficiencies of irrigation facilities. The history of population growth of the region during the last 80 years has followed a multivariate course; besides the interplay of birth and death, in-migration contributes considerably to the population growth. The 1st phase (1901-1921) is that of progressive decline causing a very slow population growth--population decrease was mainly due to the influenza epidemic of 1918-19. The 2nd phase (1921-1951) was a period of moderate population growth due to the national political movements and disturbances together with some natural disasters. The 3rd phase (1951-1981) is marked by a rapid population growth mainly due to the decline in the death rate. Over the last 80 years, the total population of the Bundelkhand region increased from 3.45 million to 8.03 million--a net increase of 132.58%. However, this change is not high when compared to the national average of 176.11%. The total population of the region in 1981 (8,037,206 persons) is expected to reach 8,874,000 persons in 1991, and 9,797,000 persons in 2001. This will undoubtedly put enormous pressure on the resources of the region slowing down the pace of economic progress.     

中国塔吉克族人口发展初探

本文根据全国历来四次人口普查资料，对我国塔吉克族人口形热进行了简要的论述。文中阐述了塔吉克族人口规模的发展、变化以及人口再生产类型，并简述了相关的社会、经济、文化等方面的问题。     

国外大都市区人口发展的相关政策及其借鉴

对于任何一个大都市来说，人口问题已经涉及到经济、政治和社会影响的方方面面，严重影响着其区域未来的可持续发展。因此，研究和借鉴相同时期国外大都市区的人口发展政策，采取积极应对措施，将十分有助于我们解决现实问题。本文简要分析并总结了国外发达国家工业化以来，大都市区在人口发展方面的主要经验，如：科学的数据统计平台；适时的规划疏导；强有力的政府宏观调控；积极的市场导向机制；专门的咨询管理机构，以及配套的各项社会发展政策，等等。同时，本文也指出，由于较为类似的城市化进程，广大发展中国家大都市区一些成功的人口管理经验也值得关注。     

有关循环经济下农业政策法制建设的探讨

如今，发展循环经济，建立循环型社会已经成为世界各国的潮流和趋势。在中国，要想发展循环经济，必须在各个产业逐步建立起与之相支持的文化、法律、政策、经济和生态体制。中国是一个农业大国，发展循环农业经济建设，无论对循环经济的发展和循环型社会的形成还是对农业经济的发展都具有重要意义。从中国现阶段农业政策法制状况出发，借鉴国外的先进经验，探讨在农业方面实现循环经济的可能性和必要性以及如何完善中国农业制度来适应这一新兴理念。     

The ethics of population control in rural China, 1979-92

This article identifies some issues of importance in understanding China's policy of population control. This article presents evidence of trends in fertility, population policy, family planning, and socioeconomic change; and then discusses the conflict between fertility preferences and policy that is evident from studies of ideal family size and sex ratios. Some issues that are identified as "uncertain" include the extent of spread of family planning service delivery and its associated insurance schemes, local family planning policies and cadre responsibility systems, the demand for children, the demand for female children, the economic and environmental consequences of population growth, the fairness of reproductive restrictions and their application, and the extent of coercion in the later-longer-fewer policy era. It is argued that an ethical framework for analyzing China's population policy should include answers to questions about the harm to welfare from population growth, the government's right to demand voluntary reproductive sacrifice or to impose demographic or reproductive restrictions and punishment, and the government's right to impose coercion. If it is accepted that population growth in China has adverse consequences and its control would be beneficial to all, then it must be determined what the nature of the relationship should be between the state and the individual. The author refers to Walzer's (1983) position that the legitimacy of Chinese state power depends in part on whether political leaders at all levels are competent and not corrupt. The rights and duties of the government and individuals must be understood not just in terms of political legitimacy but also in terms of social justice. Social justice is dependent upon the degree of horizontal and vertical consultation and accountability, utilitarian consequences, and protected spheres of individual judgement. Utilitarian theories justify the one-child policy, while deontological theories support reproductive freedom as an absolute right.     

Population growth in Uttar Pradesh since 1872

"The present paper aims to analyse district-wise decadal growth of population in Uttar Pradesh [India] since 1872. It also attempts to identify population growth regions based on a suitable statistical technique. The spatio-temporal differentials are explained by the three interacting processes of birth, death and migration."     

Population policy and the Five Year Plans

Population policy and the 5-year plans since 1951 in India are reivewed and evaluated in terms of limiting population growth. The family planning (FP) programs have not had a major impact on people's attitudes, practice of contraceptives, or the average fertility rate. Not enough attention has been paid to the interaction of demographic structure and economic and social development, and the implications for limiting population growth. Vital elements of a population policy are containing population growth, limiting births among the young and reproductive age groups, enhancing employment options for males and females, diversifying the economy, improving literacy and educational standards, improving urban/rural ratios, and balancing male/female ratios. Several approaches to FP programs are possible: long term measures to improve the social, economic, and demographic structure, and short term measures to immediately avert births. Long term approaches recognize the complexity of the problem. Rapid socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive for controlling India's population. A well conceived population education program can help, as will increasing the marriage age, preventing children from entering the labor market, increasing female education levels, providing old age pension and social security and other insurance, and providing maternity benefits for small families. Short term measures may provide temporary or permanent methods of averting births; i.e., contraceptives, sterilization, penalties and rewards for small families. However, it must not be a bureaucratic measure imposed from above. It must be a self generating process. The author suggests that simultaneous long and short term approaches are necessary. Research should be conducted to delineate which measures have the most impact on reducing fertility and policy be formulated in accordance with these answers. Compulsion is required, and government should not hesitate to step in. In rural areas, traditional and modern methods in FP should be tried in order to achieve responsible behavior. The population increases in India were a result of a mortality decline starting in 1921 and a fertility decline starting in 1971. Attention must focus on high fertility areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The 7th 5-year plan was important for making FP voluntary and generating an environment for fertility decline, and the 8th should establish FP as a self generating process.     

Development and population growth: the Indian experience

This paper analyzes the prevailing demographic trends and development processes in India. Data were taken from the World Development Report and the Human Development Reports of South Asia and India, Census of India, and Government of India's Economic Survey. A much slower economic progress and human development was observed in South Asia as compared to those in East Asia. At present, the income levels in East Asia are 27 times higher and have a human development index twice that of South Asia. India had a better economic performance as compared to other countries in South Asia. However, the human deprivations within India continue to hinder the country's emergence as a politico-economic power on the international scene. Investigation of the diversity in population growth and development in India was presented in this paper using indicators such as: average annual population growth; couple protection rate; female literacy; mean age at marriage for females; infrastructural facilities; proportion below poverty line; and the per capita income. Finally, specific suggestions on how to accelerate the fertility transition in the country were enumerated.     

URBAN GROWTH COALITIONS AND URBAN DEVELOPMENT POLICY: POSTWAR GROWTH AND THE POLITICS OF ANNEXATION IN METROPOLITAN COLUMBUS

The "political economy of place" has emerged as an important theme in urban research in recent years. Within this theme, scholars have highlighted the role of so-called urban growth coalitions in the creation of conditions favorable for urban economic development. Among their activities, growth coalitions may be interested in jurisdictional organization and, in particular, municipal annexation. This paper examines the conditions that have facilitated annexation as a postwar growth policy in metropolitan Columbus, Ohio, and the role of urban growth coalitions in shaping the policy. The policy has been effective to the extent that annexation to Columbus for municipal purposes has not included decisions on the transfer of school district territory.     

Population growth and distribution versus agricultural change: an analysis of the Warli tribal community in Dahanu and Talaseri Talukas of Thane district (Maharashtra)

The authors examine the relationship between population growth and agricultural change using a village-level study of the Warli tribal community in Maharashtra, India. "This paper tries to highlight the relationship that exists between the two factors and the relative changes in the structural character of the two factors. It also focuses on the complications brought about by the juxtaposition of a market economy of the nontribals on the subsistence peasant agriculture of the Warli tribals. Methodology is empirical. Suitable statistical aids have been used on available census material [for the years 1901-1971], substantiated with fieldwork."     

Population trends and the status of population policy in Africa

There is every indication that Africa's population growth will remain well above the world average for the remainder of this decade and probably for the rest of this century. With the exception of the island states and parts of North Africa, fertility levels show little indication of change. This is in part a reflection of little desire for small families, as well as a consequence of limited or even restricted family planning services. Great diversity in attitudes regarding population policy prevails among African governments, ranging from extreme pronatal to committed antinatal. Even with antinatal policies, however, many African states have yet to attain any significant success in depressing their rates of growth. To date, Mauritius can be cited as the only state to have almost achieved the transition from high to low fertility. The consequence of these continuing trends is that Africa will see further increases in its youth dependency ratio. Pressures on infrastructural services will therefore increase, and the problems of generating employment will intensify. While demographic factors are by no means the only ones creating economic stress on the continent, they clearly are contributory. Unlike Asia or parts of Latin America, Africa's problem is less a matter of too many people but rather 1 of excessive growth in too short a time frame. A realistic and effective long-term population policy, therefore, is an immediate need. Several countries including Nigeria (with a pouplation of over 80 million) are experiencing a crude birth rate of 50 or more/1,000. At least 4 countries, including Kenya, are currently doubling their population in 20 years or less. With these current population trends, a demographic transition to low vital rates must assume passage through an even higher growth phase than is currently being experienced because the fall in birth rates tends to occur much later than the fall in death rates. Government population policies and the status of family planning activities are illustrated according to natal sentiments and attitudes. Trends in national vital rates and of population structures in Africa are illustrated.     

京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展关系研究

京津冀地区是中国重要的人口集聚区和经济增长极,在京津冀协同发展的背景下研究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,对于促进区域内经济的可持续发展具有重要意义。本文基于京津冀地区2000-2010年各区(县)和2000-2014年各城市的人口、GDP数据,运用人口—经济增长弹性、地理集中度、不一致指数、重心分析等方法探究京津冀地区人口与经济的协调发展关系,结果表明：①在总量规模上,京津冀地区整体人口增长与经济增长的协调度较高,但各城市人口增长与经济增长的协调度存在较大差异。②在空间分布上,从地理集中度来看,京津冀地区人口、经济地理集中度均呈现北部低、中南部高的分布特征,其中北京、天津经济地理集中度高于人口地理集中度,河北多数城市人口地理集中度高于经济地理集中度;从重心来看,京津冀地区整体的人口与经济重心都向东北方向移动,且经济重心的移动幅度大于人口重心,2个重心偏离距离不断加大,此外各城市的人口重心与经济重心也出现不同程度的分离。最后,提出了促进京津冀地区人口与经济协调发展的政策建议。     

Poverty, hunger and population policy: linking Cairo with Johannesburg

Attitudes to population policy taken by major international institutions display a lack of symmetry. Population-based institutions forcefully set out the effects of population on development and human welfare. In contrast, institutions and lobbies concerned with hunger, poverty and environment, brought together at the 2003 World Summit on Sustainable Development in Johannesburg, treat population growth as a given, independent, variable. This paper gives a land resources viewpoint. It includes a case study of Malawi and cross-country statistical comparisons. Official estimates of the extent of spare land, cultivable but not presently cultivated, are challenged. It is concluded that in low-income, food-deficit countries population increase has reduced, in some areas nullified, advances in agricultural development. Following the 1994 UN Conference on Population and Development in Cairo, a set of ethically acceptable measures for reducing population growth received general acceptance. All concerned with poverty, hunger and environment should follow the policy road from Cairo to Johannesburg. If greater efforts are not made to reduce rates of population increase, the targets of the Millennium declaration will not be met, and the suffering which these cause will continue. Statements about agriculture, food security, poverty and sustainability should recognize that population is not an external variable but an integral part of development.     

印度人口地理特征及其对经济的影响

印度是世界上仅次于中国的第二人口大国，同时也是个发展中大国，经济并不富裕。近几十年来印度人口的过度增长，对其国家现今的政治稳定和经济发展带来了巨大沉重的压力，并影响着印度综合国力和人民生活水平的提高。本文在阐述印度人口结构、区域分布等地理特征的基础上，分析了印度人口特征对经济发展的影响，指出印度解决人口问题的当务之急是控制人口和大力发展经济。     

河南省民营经济发展特征及对策

民营经济是社会主义市场经济的重要组成部分,是全社会创造财富的一支重要力量,对充分调动社会各方面积极性、加快生产力发展具有重要作用.为促使河南省民营经济更快发展、以成为中原崛起的主力军,对改革开放以来河南省民营经济总量、民营企业数量及社会贡献等特征作了系统分析,探讨了河南省民营经济发展中存在的主要问题,提出了加快河南省民营经济发展的主要对策是政府部门应解决对民营经济的认识问题,改善外部经营环境,做好政策引导和扶持,为民营企业做大做强、民营经济快速发展提供良好的保障措施.     

Birth control practices and levels of development in India

The paper examines the acceptance of birth control practices in India, and examines the relationhsip of these patterns to levels of economic development. A study of selected couples with markedly low incomes revealed that fertility tended to increase until a certain level of per capita income was reached. From this level onward, fertility and desired family size goals declined with increasing economic status. The study reveals an association in India between those less developed states and poor acceptance of family planning. The level of medical and administrative personnel for family planning services is superior in the more developed states and, logically, adoption of family planning practices is also higher. In higher-income states, characterized by relatively higher spatial mobility and literacy rates, the spread of family planning practices is relatively rapid. In less developed states, characterized by poorly developed centralized systems of communication and distribution, a lower spatial mobility of people, and a lower diffusion of knowledge through personal contact, family planning methods tend to spread very slowly or become less and less popular. A classification of Indian states as related to their acceptance of formal family planning policy and governmental efforts has been helpful in developing regionally-oriented program strategies for the future. Such strategies would take into account varying socioeconomic, cultural and administrative infrastructure differences in order to better assure delivery of services. As India also faces a shortage of trained physicians and personnel for the National Family Planning program, a regionally-based spatial allocation policy must be formulated that will divert some family planning personnel from states with high-acceptance patterns to the more densely populated, less developed regions of the country.     

Economic globalization and regional disparities in the Philippines

This paper empirically tracks the Philippine (policy) path following the mantra of economic globalization over the past 25 years. Specifically, it investigates the resulting regional growth‐inequality relationships and development footprints accompanying the restructuring of political economy and livelihoods. The Philippine case thereby shows how globalization can simultaneously cause the selective dismantling of (economic) barriers and enhancement of mobility and growth, as well as a deterioration of socioeconomic inequalities in space and society. In an increasingly deregulated and contested environment these development divides do not just pose serious threats to regional balance and national cohesion but, ultimately, undermine state capacity to achieve avowed goals of inclusive growth, stability and equality for citizens.     

中国非正规经济发展格局及与城镇化的关系——基于多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型的研究北大核心CSCDCSSCI

非正规经济是世界城市化过程的普遍现象,关于它的发展态势及与城市化的关系是学界长期关注的重要问题。本文引入多指标多原因(MIMIC)模型估算中国非正规经济规模,在分析其发展空间格局的基础上,运用计量模型揭示了非正规经济与城镇化的动态关系。研究表明,2000年以来中国非正规经济不断增长,2008年后出现较快增长态势,2017年占GDP比例达到20.55%,非正规就业人员达1.59亿人。非正规经济的空间分布呈现西北-东南高、西南-东北低的不平衡特点。模型显示,中国非正规经济与人口城镇化水平存在倒U型关系,即非正规经济占整体经济的份额随城镇化水平的提高呈现先上升、后下降的变化过程,发生这一变化的城镇化水平临界值为72.48%。由此推断中国非正规经济占比还将伴随城镇化进程而继续上升,由于城镇化发展阶段的差异,不同地区的非正规经济发展态势将不同。非正规经济还受到经济发展阶段、产业结构、流动人口、国有经济和政府管制等因素的影响。本文有助于加深认识非正规经济的发展规律,为制定基于城镇化发展阶段差异的非正规经济政策提供理论依据。     

人口发展功能区格局下区域经济增长空间差异及其协调发展

在对我国人口发展功能区提出的背景、意义、分布区域和政策取向进行梳理的基础上,分析影响我国四类人口功能区经济增长差异的五大因素,并结合新增长理论对影响因素进行模型分析。研究结果表明,四类功能区主要通过影响长期工人的产出增长率、资本的增长率进而影响区域空间增长率的长期差异,四类人口发展功能区经济增长率展现了永久的增加而非收敛于一条平衡增长路径的特征。最后提出四大人口功能区区域协调发展的对策和机制。