Economic status and fertility levels in the two hamlets of Sriharjo,Yogyakarta

This study elaborates on Indonesian fertility differentials based on the average number of children ever born or late births per woman. Other studies have shown that the relationship between fertility and economic class does not show a consistent pattern, being sometimes negative and sometimes positive. In the areas of Mojolama and Kedung Miri, characteristics such as occupation and economic status differ, but the relationship between age and economic status of the family was positive in both. In general, socioeconomic conditions in Majolama were better than in Kedung Miri but fertility levels were about the same at 3.6 children ever born/ever married woman in Mojolama and 3.5 in Kejung Miri, while the average of completed family size was the same, 4.8. There was a finding that women in higher economic classes tend to have a higher average number of children compared to those in lower economic classes.     

家庭送养的时空演化及决策机制

中国民间抱养行为由来已久,家庭送养的决策将完全改变儿童的生存和发展的轨迹。囿于送养的隐蔽性和复杂性,且相关研究匮乏,亟需系统性的剖析。文章基于公益平台寻亲数据,运用社会网络、空间分析、数理统计以及地理探测器的方法,探究1981—2010年家庭送养的时空分异特征,并进一步归纳送养决策的流程及原因机制。结果表明：1）送养主体为未满1周岁女童。2）送养人数在时间上呈现“先增后减”的倒“U”型分布,在空间上主要分布在中国东部、中部以及川渝地区。3）家庭送养原因以经济贫困为主,违反生育政策的影响次之。当家庭面临狭小的生育空间时,重男轻女的思想会被强化。4）地理探测器结果揭示,人口因素是影响送养空间分异最主要的原因,自然灾害、计划生育和经济因素在不同时期产生较大影响。5）基于理性选择理论提出了多尺度下的家庭送养的影响机制,认为家庭在作理性送养决策时,往往遵循生存理性、经济理性、制度理性以及社会理性的原则。     

The economic value of children: a case study from rural India

This study compares the theses of Mamdami, that India's poor have large families as an investment, and Vlassoff, that only a weak connection exists between a child's economic utility and household fertility. Data used in the study were based on a sample of 18 children in Bihar state, India, on 1) expenditures on children, 2) opportunity costs of raising children, 3) child earnings, 4) child earnings given to parents, 5) alternative investments, 6) discount rates appropriate for parents to use, 7) parents' perceptions of the economic value of children, and 8) family size. Costs estimated included food, clothing, schooling, health, other, and opportunity costs in bearing and raising children. Benefits include estimated values for work within and outside the family. 2 balances indicate that 7 or 8 children, aged 6 to 15, provide more labor than they cost to keep. Data suggest that children become valuable to parents at about age 9 or 10. From this age on, benefits increasingly outweigh costs; by the age of 16 or 17, children have repaid their initial costs to parents. Comparing the value of children against local bank interest rates shows that in all cases but one, children provided a better economic investment than savings accounts. The authors suggest that children are an even greater economic investment in poorer households. Doling out condoms and pills is no substitute for child wealth. In Bihar, improving people's economic well-being may be a prerequisite to fertility decline.     

陕西省人口空间分异研究

基于第六次乡镇级人口普查数据,利用GIS技术展示陕西省人口信息的空间分异格局,通过计算Moran’s I指数、信息熵、分异指数、隔离指数等空间自相关和空间分异指标,结合地貌、资源、产业等地域特征,得出陕西省人口数量、属性及不同社会群体的空间分异特征,探讨其内在机理并提出政策建议。     

The ethics of population control in rural China, 1979-92

This article identifies some issues of importance in understanding China's policy of population control. This article presents evidence of trends in fertility, population policy, family planning, and socioeconomic change; and then discusses the conflict between fertility preferences and policy that is evident from studies of ideal family size and sex ratios. Some issues that are identified as "uncertain" include the extent of spread of family planning service delivery and its associated insurance schemes, local family planning policies and cadre responsibility systems, the demand for children, the demand for female children, the economic and environmental consequences of population growth, the fairness of reproductive restrictions and their application, and the extent of coercion in the later-longer-fewer policy era. It is argued that an ethical framework for analyzing China's population policy should include answers to questions about the harm to welfare from population growth, the government's right to demand voluntary reproductive sacrifice or to impose demographic or reproductive restrictions and punishment, and the government's right to impose coercion. If it is accepted that population growth in China has adverse consequences and its control would be beneficial to all, then it must be determined what the nature of the relationship should be between the state and the individual. The author refers to Walzer's (1983) position that the legitimacy of Chinese state power depends in part on whether political leaders at all levels are competent and not corrupt. The rights and duties of the government and individuals must be understood not just in terms of political legitimacy but also in terms of social justice. Social justice is dependent upon the degree of horizontal and vertical consultation and accountability, utilitarian consequences, and protected spheres of individual judgement. Utilitarian theories justify the one-child policy, while deontological theories support reproductive freedom as an absolute right.     

Thinking of England and taking care: family building strategies and infant mortality in England and Wales, 1891-1911

"Debates concerning the origins and development of the late nineteenth- to early twentieth-century declines in marital fertility and infant mortality in England and Wales have been centred largely on the material provided by answers to the ?special' questions in the 1911 census. In their published form these figures have restricted researchers to an examination of large scale geographic and social class differences in the levels and rates of decline of the two phenomena. This paper outlines research conducted on a sample of individual census returns from the 1911 census. From this data it becomes clear that for Victorian and Edwardian England ?where one lived' was rather more important than ?who one was' in determining both family building strategies and the survival of those children born."     

Birth control practices and levels of development in India

The paper examines the acceptance of birth control practices in India, and examines the relationhsip of these patterns to levels of economic development. A study of selected couples with markedly low incomes revealed that fertility tended to increase until a certain level of per capita income was reached. From this level onward, fertility and desired family size goals declined with increasing economic status. The study reveals an association in India between those less developed states and poor acceptance of family planning. The level of medical and administrative personnel for family planning services is superior in the more developed states and, logically, adoption of family planning practices is also higher. In higher-income states, characterized by relatively higher spatial mobility and literacy rates, the spread of family planning practices is relatively rapid. In less developed states, characterized by poorly developed centralized systems of communication and distribution, a lower spatial mobility of people, and a lower diffusion of knowledge through personal contact, family planning methods tend to spread very slowly or become less and less popular. A classification of Indian states as related to their acceptance of formal family planning policy and governmental efforts has been helpful in developing regionally-oriented program strategies for the future. Such strategies would take into account varying socioeconomic, cultural and administrative infrastructure differences in order to better assure delivery of services. As India also faces a shortage of trained physicians and personnel for the National Family Planning program, a regionally-based spatial allocation policy must be formulated that will divert some family planning personnel from states with high-acceptance patterns to the more densely populated, less developed regions of the country.     

Education as a determinant of fertility: a case study of Kullu Town

Using a sample of 885 females (1/2 of all married women of reproductive age), this study examines the role of education as a determinant of fertility among couples in Kullu town of Himachol Pradesh, India. Of the 885 respondents, only 149 were illiterate. The average family size was 2.88. Findings reveal that 1) the average family size was largest for illiterate respondents (3.57) and for illiterate males (3.76); 2) average family size declined consistently after the middle level of education to 1.29 for post graduate respondents and 2.33 for post graduate males; 3) a negative correlation exists between fertility and education of both husband and wife, with the wife's education having a stronger negative correlation with fertility; and 4) couples with an educational level of matriculation and above have a distinctly smaller family size than those less educated.     

Changes of population growth in Tibet Autonomous Region

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The demographic system of a Mediterranean island: Mykonos,Greece 1859-1959

"This paper is an attempt to examine the demographic distinctiveness of island populations. The population of the Greek island of Mykonos in the period 1859 to 1959 is used. Using the results obtained from family reconstitution and inverse projection the inter-relations of the major demographic components are described. The pre-transitional demographic system of Mykonos was found to have been characterised by the combination of low mortality and low marital though moderately high overall fertility. The resulting high population growth was counterbalanced by high emigration which kept the island population almost constant. Mortality and fertility experienced parallel and rapid decline. In both pre- and transitional Mykonos fertility rather than mortality seems to have been the main factor responsible for the changes in population growth. The findings point to a demographic distinctiveness of Mediterranean island populations."     

Demographic transition in Sri Lanka: a spatial perspective

Demographic transition theory involves a lagging fertility transition induced by a leading mortality transition. This article focuses on the linkage between the mortality and fertility transitions in Sri Lanka; it discusses the measurement of areal fertility, demonstrates the use of a measure not commonly used in population geography, and shows areal association between past mortality and recent fertility. The Coale or Princeton fertility indices allow a reasonably good view of structural and behavioral aspects of fertility; the Coale indices examine the contribution of structure to total fertility and the contribution of marital fertility. Although recent fertility decline has been less rapid than the post-war mortality decline, Sri Lanka's crude birth rate in 1975 was the 5th lowest in Asia. Sri Lanka experienced very high crude death rates in 1930, and quite low rates in 1950 and in subsequent years. This demonstrates an association between historic mortality and recent fertility, and that association can be linked deductively to demographic transition theory. In 1930, malaria was endemic throughout the Dry Zone of Sri Lanka, and hyperendemic in several districts. The Spearman rank correlation coefficients reveal the strongest relationship between malaria and nuptiality; this lends evidence to the notion that structural influences on fertility--such as delayed marriage--are more important than influences on marital fertility--such as coital frequency. The evidence suggests that mortalily decline in Sri Lanka led to an increase in fertility in those areas where malaria had been concentrated. This suggests the possibility that measures constituting malaria control or eradication also stimulate increased fertility; therefore, anti-malarial programs must be integrated with family planning.     

Singapore in the 1990s. Can population policies reverse the demographic transition?

Singapore experienced an extraordinary demographic transition from a population growth of over 4% per year in the late 1950s to around 1.6% in the 1990s and below replacement fertility since 1986. In 1987 official government policy shifted to measures for increasing fertility. This paper explores whether Singapore's pronatalist policies can reverse the demographic transition. The present policies aim to selectively increase fertility among the well educated. By 1987 the slogan switched from "stop at two" to "have three, if you can afford it." The policy included tax relief for a third child and other measures to encourage a third child. The policies are expected to have a different influence on society according to one's education, income, and family size. The government target is to selectively increase population by 40% over 25 years. Singapore's transition may follow the theory that low fertility is attained in societies where kin relationships are less important than personal educational achievements. The three ethnic groups responded differently to educational and fertility policies. The Chinese acquired the best education and attained the lowest fertility. The Chinese, who comprised 76% of total population in 1986, continued to have low fertility, while increases occurred among the Malays and the Indians. Future trends are considered difficult to predict. A survey conducted in 1992 in Ang Mo Kio among 489 reproductive age respondents revealed that Malays had the earliest marriage and first births before the age of 25 years (75% of Malays and 50% of Indians). The Chinese had their first child at 25 years or older. Without controls for the age of the mother, a strong statistically significant association was found between ethnic group and age at marriage and age at first birth. The relationship was not supported for current fertility. A comparison of women married for 5 years or less and 5 years or more revealed that women in recent marriages showed a greater likelihood of postponing marriage and childbirth for all ethnic groups. Since 1987, third order births as a percentage of all births increased from 21.47% before 1987 to 23.11% during 1987-92, which only suggests the favorable impact of the pronatalist policy. Educational changes are likely to become more influential in affecting choice of family size.     

基于人口数量与结构的云南生育政策取向思考

列举了基于中国人口数量和结构的生育政策的3种不同典型观点,在详尽的相关统计数据和问卷调查资料基础上分析云南省人口数量和结构特征,认为数量问题是云南省今后一段时间内人口的核心问题,同时人口老龄化、劳动力人口长期富余、家庭核心化空巢化等结构问题日趋突显,得出21世纪初云南生育政策导向是必须要继续稳定地降低生育水平并有必要对生育政策进行微调的结论.     

Age patterns of fertility in Madhya Pradesh

"The purpose of this paper is to analyse age-patterns of fertility in Madhya Pradesh [in India] based on district level estimates of aggregate measures of fertility data collected in 1981.... Four clusters of districts have emerged which reveal a clear zonal pattern in age-specific fertility rates in the state. These groups bring out high fertility rates in the north and north-western parts of the state, gradually declining toward the south-eastern zone. The author suggests that separate policies and programmes be evolved for each of the clusters of districts for the purpose of bringing about reduction in fertility and promoting family welfare in the state of Madhya Pradesh."     

创业者区位选择的家乡偏好及其驱动机制

作为家乡认同感浓厚且出现大规模流动人口的转型中国家,中国的创业者在区位选择上究竟偏好家乡还是异地亟待回答,这关乎地方创业政策的方向性布局。基于2014年中国劳动力动态调查数据,从微观个体层面实证检验了创业者在区位选择上是否存在家乡偏好,并探究了其驱动机制。研究发现：创业者在区位选择上的确存在家乡偏好,且这种偏好在生存型和机会型的创业者中均普遍存在;在剔除可能造成家乡偏好高估的样本后,上述发现依然成立。进一步的机制分析发现,创业者偏好在家乡创业是为了借助熟悉的社会网络拓展营销渠道并照顾子女和父母。上述发现为制定创业人才政策提供了科学依据。     

中国城市房价对生育率的影响——基于长三角地区41个城市的计量分析

房价与人口的关系是人文经济地理学研究的热点领域,本文选取长江三角洲地区作为研究区域,利用区域内41个城市11年（2008—2018年）的数据,分别采用差分GMM模型及LSDVC法,从整体和分组的层面分析城市房价与生育率的关系。整体模拟结果表明,城市房价上涨的速度对于生育率有着显著的负向作用：房价上涨得越快,生育率下降得越快。同时,以房价收入比衡量的居民购房能力对生育率也有着显著的影响,居民购房能力下降得越快,生育率也下降得越快。分组研究的结果表明,不同房价水平的城市,生育率受购房能力影响程度不同,中等房价水平及较低房价水平的城市,其生育率更容易受到购房能力波动的影响。基于以上研究结果,提出严控房价涨幅速度、适当提高购房补贴、提高居民收入等政策建议,以期提高区域内居民整体生育意愿,促进人口增长。     

Soil fertility management strategies on the Jos Plateau: the need for integrating 'empirical' and 'scientific' knowledge in agricultural development

Tin mining carried out on the Jos Plateau since the beginning of the last century has disturbed some 320 km² of agricultural land. Formal attempts at reclamation of this land failed, but local farmers have developed a successful informal strategy for reclamation. This paper reports on a study undertaken to comprehend the farmers'informal' approach to soil fertility management. Their soil fertility management practices centre on the use of a complex combination of traditional organic manures and 'modern' inorganic fertilizers that they have developed entirely on the basis of experimentation. A central focus of this paper is therefore the empirical knowledge base of the farmers and an assessment of any underlying scientific explanations for their strategies, including an analysis of their assertion that different brands of NPK fertilizers differ in their nutrient value. This discussion is followed by a consideration of the difficulties in accessing and understanding empirical knowledge. It is concluded that farmers' knowledge and understanding of the values of different fertilizers and manures does have a scientific basis. It is argued that for further agricultural development to take place on the Jos Plateau, there must be synergy between farmers' empirical knowledge (which has led to the development of successful and effective soil fertility management strategies, unlike the attempts of the local 'scientific' communities) and scientific knowledge (which can identify health and environmental hazards which may not be immediately visible to farmers).     

Population policy and the Five Year Plans

Population policy and the 5-year plans since 1951 in India are reivewed and evaluated in terms of limiting population growth. The family planning (FP) programs have not had a major impact on people's attitudes, practice of contraceptives, or the average fertility rate. Not enough attention has been paid to the interaction of demographic structure and economic and social development, and the implications for limiting population growth. Vital elements of a population policy are containing population growth, limiting births among the young and reproductive age groups, enhancing employment options for males and females, diversifying the economy, improving literacy and educational standards, improving urban/rural ratios, and balancing male/female ratios. Several approaches to FP programs are possible: long term measures to improve the social, economic, and demographic structure, and short term measures to immediately avert births. Long term approaches recognize the complexity of the problem. Rapid socioeconomic development is the best contraceptive for controlling India's population. A well conceived population education program can help, as will increasing the marriage age, preventing children from entering the labor market, increasing female education levels, providing old age pension and social security and other insurance, and providing maternity benefits for small families. Short term measures may provide temporary or permanent methods of averting births; i.e., contraceptives, sterilization, penalties and rewards for small families. However, it must not be a bureaucratic measure imposed from above. It must be a self generating process. The author suggests that simultaneous long and short term approaches are necessary. Research should be conducted to delineate which measures have the most impact on reducing fertility and policy be formulated in accordance with these answers. Compulsion is required, and government should not hesitate to step in. In rural areas, traditional and modern methods in FP should be tried in order to achieve responsible behavior. The population increases in India were a result of a mortality decline starting in 1921 and a fertility decline starting in 1971. Attention must focus on high fertility areas such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, and Rajasthan. The 7th 5-year plan was important for making FP voluntary and generating an environment for fertility decline, and the 8th should establish FP as a self generating process.     

Population trends and the status of population policy in Africa

There is every indication that Africa's population growth will remain well above the world average for the remainder of this decade and probably for the rest of this century. With the exception of the island states and parts of North Africa, fertility levels show little indication of change. This is in part a reflection of little desire for small families, as well as a consequence of limited or even restricted family planning services. Great diversity in attitudes regarding population policy prevails among African governments, ranging from extreme pronatal to committed antinatal. Even with antinatal policies, however, many African states have yet to attain any significant success in depressing their rates of growth. To date, Mauritius can be cited as the only state to have almost achieved the transition from high to low fertility. The consequence of these continuing trends is that Africa will see further increases in its youth dependency ratio. Pressures on infrastructural services will therefore increase, and the problems of generating employment will intensify. While demographic factors are by no means the only ones creating economic stress on the continent, they clearly are contributory. Unlike Asia or parts of Latin America, Africa's problem is less a matter of too many people but rather 1 of excessive growth in too short a time frame. A realistic and effective long-term population policy, therefore, is an immediate need. Several countries including Nigeria (with a pouplation of over 80 million) are experiencing a crude birth rate of 50 or more/1,000. At least 4 countries, including Kenya, are currently doubling their population in 20 years or less. With these current population trends, a demographic transition to low vital rates must assume passage through an even higher growth phase than is currently being experienced because the fall in birth rates tends to occur much later than the fall in death rates. Government population policies and the status of family planning activities are illustrated according to natal sentiments and attitudes. Trends in national vital rates and of population structures in Africa are illustrated.     

REGIONAL DEMOGRAPHIC STRUCTURE OF THE UNITED STATES

This paper analyzes the surprisingly great variation in demographic character across the states, utilizing data on fertility, mortality, age, sex, mobility, household character, abortion, race and ethnicity. A fairly simple regional pattern is revealed that is less related to levels of economic development than to long-standing historical cultural differences.