北京近百年城市用地变化与相关社会人文因素简论

北京是中国的历史名城之一。历史上,其地域范围内的土地利用与土地覆被随人类活动强度而变化,各个时期的城市用地扩张是其中最明显的变化之一。本文将北京的历史发展过程划分为两个阶段,前一阶段从辽代建都到1911年封建王朝的瓦解;第二阶段从1911年到现在。本文围绕后一阶段进行探讨。指出:在过去的大约100年中,通过城市化表现的北京土地利用与土地覆被变化巨大,在过去的50年间尤为明显。北京的城市用地扩张及由此推动的土地利用/土地覆被变化之所以更为显著,与政治及社会意识形态改变、政策和制度变化、以及人口增长、科技进步和经济实力增强等社会、经济、人文因素密切相关。它们与土地利用/土地覆被变化相关关系的量化研究值得深入开展     

20 世纪科尔沁的人口变化及其特征分析

利用蒙、汉、日语多种文献资料就科尔沁近百年的人口变化进行了分析,结果发现： 一个世纪以来科尔沁人口增加很快,平均人口密度从民国初期的2.40 人/km² 增加到2000 年 的39.72 人/km²,约为世纪初的17 倍;新增人口主要为1949 年前的关内流民、1949 年中华人民共和国成立后的移民以及移民生育;人口增加最高峰出现在1949 年后的计划移民时期, 伪满时期的流民则构成了研究区近百年另一个显著的移民高潮;移入人口在科尔沁的分布受 距离农区的空间间隔、科尔沁自然环境条件及其变化、城镇化等因素影响,人口密度呈现从 科尔沁外围到腹地、从农耕区到农牧交错区和牧区、从城镇到农村牧区逐渐降低的空间分布特征,移入人口成为20 世纪科尔沁的农耕主力军。     

基于方志资料重建1644-1949年长江三角洲地区台风频次序列(英文)

The proxy records on typhoons in the Yangtze River Delta from 1644 to 1949AD were extracted from historical chorographies in the Qing Dynasty and the Republic of China Period.In reference to the basic principles for identifying historical typhoons,time series on the Yangtze River Delta over a period of 306 years were developed.The conclusions are as follows.(1) There were a total of 241 typhoons from 1644 to 1949AD.Using the historical chorographies from 1884 to 1949AD,the number of typhoons was 65,equal to 87.8% recorded by meteorological observation.The number of years with differences in typhoon activities reconstructed using two ways no more than once is 55,reaching 83.3% in the period from 1884 to 1949AD.This result means the series of historical typhoons reconstructed using historical chorographies can represent the change of typhoon activities over years.(2) The average number of typhoon activities is 0.79 times per year from 1644 to 1949AD,and they show an increasing trend.These 306 years can be divided into three periods by the average number of typhoon activities:it is low from 1644 to 1784AD,and more typhoon activities are found from 1785 to 1904AD.It is worth noting that the number of typhoon activities reaches the summit in the last period,which is 1.2 times per year from 1905 to 1949AD.(3) Before the 20th century,the number of typhoon activities in warm periods is less than the number of cold periods.However,the number of typhoon activities increased dramatically in the early 20th century.Comparing the typhoon activities with El Ni o events,the data show that the number of typhoon activities did not increase when El Ni o occurred.     

MODELLING LONG‐TERM SUMMER AND WINTER BALANCES AND THE CLIMATE SENSITIVITY OF STORBREEN,NORWAY

Measurements of winter balance (b_w) and summer balance (b_s) have been carried out at Storbreen since 1949. Here we apply a simple mass balance model to study the climate sensitivity and to reconstruct the mass balance series priorto 1949. The model is calibrated and validated with data from an automatic weather station (AWS) operating in the ablation zone of Storbreen since 2001. Regression analysis revealed that b_w was best modelled using precipitation data southwest of the glacier. Results from the model compared well with reported mass balance values for the period 1949–2006, obtained correlations (r) for b_w and b_s varied between 0.83 and 0.87 depending on model set up. Reconstruction of the mass balance series for the period 1924/1925–1948/1949 suggested a cumulative mass deficit of c. 30 m w.e. mainly due to highly negative summer balances, but also lower b_wthan the average for 1949–2006. Calculated change in specific mass balance for a ±1°C change in air temperature was ±0.55 m w.e., whereas a ±10 % increase in precipitation represented a change of ±0.20 m w.e. Model results further indicated that for a 2°C warming, the ablation season will be extended by c. 30 days and that the period of ice melt at the AWS location will increase from c. 40 to c. 80 days.     

April sea ice extent in the Barents Sea, 1850–2001

Three observational data sets are used to construct a continuous record (1850-2001) of April ice edge position in the Barents Sea: two sets of Norwegian ice charts (one from 1850 to 1949 and the other from 1966 to 2001) and Soviet aircraft reconnaissance ice extent charts from 1950 to 1966. The 152-year April ice extent series is subdivided into three sub-periods: 1850-1899, 1900-1949 and 1950-2001. For each of these study sub-periods, a mean April ice edge and a set of anomalies (differences in position between a given April and the mean April ice edge) are computed. The calculations show the mean ice edge position retreated north-eastward over the 152-year period, with the greater retreat seen in the changes from the 1850-1899 sub-period to the 1900-1949 sub-period. The distribution of the standard deviation of the ice edge anomaly over the linear distance along the mean ice edge shows no substantial difference between any of the three periods of the study. Within each study period, the maximum variation is observed in the sector bounded by the 25°E and 49° E meridians, which covers the main pathway of the warmer water flow from the Norwegian Sea.     

广东城市化及其发展模式的选择

在阐述广东城市化发展的现状基础上，分析了广东城市化发展过程中所存在的有明显阶段性、地区发展不均衡、小城市为主的城市化及城市化滞后于工业化等特征，并探讨了广东城市化模式的选择，指出广东城市化应该根据广东发展的实际和各地差异，走一条大、中、小城市融合、协调发展的城市化道路。     

徐州城市形态演变的分形分析

基于城市扩展图和多时相Landsat遥感影像资料，应用分形理论，对1949年以来徐州城市形态的演变进行定量分析，揭示了徐州城市形态在不同时期的扩展特征。结果表明：徐州城市形态具有分形性质，城市形态的演变是多种因素综合作用的结果，尤其与经济发展的周期性变化密切相关。城市形态的演变经历了迅速扩展期、缓慢扩展期、恢复扩张期、快速推进期和稳步扩张期。在空间上，徐州城市形态一直处于外部扩展一轴间填充一外部扩展的循环过程中。在扩展方向上，1987年以前，城市的扩展重心向东北方向转移；1987年以后，扩展重心转向东南方向。     

1947～2007年上海中心城区居住空间分异变化——基于居住用地类型视角

采用4种分异度测度模型,在街坊尺度和乡镇尺度下,对上海中心城区1947～2007年11个时相的各类居住用地空间分异程度进行计算。发现1949年后各类居住用地分异度呈现不同的波动过程。不同时期居住用地总体分异程度的计算表明,1949年前空间分异严重,计划经济时期有所降低,转型期则又明显上升。不同时期居住用地等级高低与其分异度大小呈现不同的结构特征,1949年前高等级居住用地分异度高、中低等级居住用地分异度较低,形成"一高两低"结构;计划经济时期则是居住用地等级越高,分异度越大的"正相关"结构;90年代后则是最高和最低等级的居住用地分异度高,而中等居住用地分异度最低的"V"型结构。不同时期居住用地空间分异结构特征间的演进,直接原因是新式住宅的建设和旧城的改造,深层次原因则是土地使用制度的变迁和城市空间组织模式的转变。     

Forest change of China in recent 300 years

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are es-timated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years (AD 1700–1998) is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×108 hm2 (or 9.2% of the coverage rate) in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated de-scending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×108 hm2 (or 17% of the coverage rate) in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×108 hm2 (or 8% of the coverage rate) in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and de-creasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Prov-ince, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949–1998, the western provinces, mu-nicipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Si-chuan–Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions (except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu–Shanghai) have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guang-dong–Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei, Shandong, Henan, Zhejiang, and Fu-jian have an increase over 10%.     

近300年来中国森林的变迁

以清代以来史料为依据, 在现代清查统计资料和前人研究成果的基础上, 通过对森林变迁大体趋势及主要过程的客观把握, 重新校订了1949 年和1700 年前人的估算数据, 回溯估算了1750~1900 年中国各省区每50 年森林面积与森林覆被率值, 并与现代森林清查资料衔接, 分析1700~1998 年近300 年来中国森林变迁的时空特征。结果表明: 近300 年来中国现境内共减少森林面积约0.95×10⁸ ha, 森林覆被率减少9.2 个百分点, 变化曲线呈先抑后仰; 以1960s 为界, 此前呈加速递减态势, 260 年间减少森林面积达1.66×10⁸ hm², 覆被率下降约17 个百分点;1960s 以后呈逐步增长态势, 近40 年间增加森林面积约0.7×10⁸ hm², 覆被 率提高了约8 个百分点。结果还表明: 近300 年来中国森林消长, 西部地区均小于东部地区; 在1700~1949 年的锐减期中, 东北、西南和东南三区是森林面积缩减最为严重的地方, 大部分省区覆被率下降超过20 个百分点, 其中黑龙江达50 个百分点, 吉林达36 个百分点, 川渝地区达42 个百分点, 云南达35 个百分点;在1949~1998 年的恢复期中, 西部各省区森林覆 被率增加均小于5 个百分点, 东部地区(除黑龙江、湖北和沪宁外) 均超过5 个百分点; 其中 粤琼、广西、安徽、京津冀、山东、河南、浙江、福建等省区高达10 个百分点以上。     

Development history and accessibility evolution of land transportation network in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region over the past century

From the development of modern transportation to the current era of high-speed transportation networks, the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei (BTH) region has always played a national leading role in land transportation development of China. In order to explore the long-term evolutionary characteristics of land transportation in the BTH region, this paper utilized a temporal scale of 100 years to systematically interpret the development process of the land transportation network. Taking 13 cities within the BTH region as research anchor cities, we took into account “leaping” mode of transportation in order to investigate the evolution of accessibility. Our research shows the following results: (1) The land transportation network in the BTH region has undergone five stages of development: the initial period of modernization (1881–1937); the period of stagnation of transportation development (1937–1949); the network expansion period (1949–1980); the period of trunk construction (1980–1995), and the period of high-speed transportation network development (1995–present). The network structure centered around Beijing has existed from the outset of modern transportation development. (2) The accessibility spatial pattern of land transportation in BTH region has evolved from expansion along traffic corridors to the formation of concentric circles. The stratified circular structure of transportation in anchor cities has gradually developed into a contiguous development pattern. (3) There are clear hierarchical differences in the transportation structures of anchor cities. Beijing has always been at the top of this hierarchy, while the hierarchical position of Zhangjiakou has fallen noticeably since 1949. The Beijing-Tianjin region was the first region to form a short-duration transportation circle structure, while the transportation advantages of the central part of Hebei Province, which is located in the center of the BTH transportation region, have yet to be realized.     

300年来中国森林的变化

Based on historical documents, modern survey and statistics, as well as the result of predecessor studies, the trend and main process of forest dynamics are recognized. The forest area and forest coverage rates for each province of China from 1700 to 1949 are estimated backward by every 50 years. Linking the result with modern National Forest Inventory data, the spatial-temporal dynamics of Chinese forest in recent 300 years （AD 1700-1998） is quantitatively analyzed. The study shows that in recent 300 years, the forest area in current territory of China has declined by 0.95×10^8 hm^2 （or 9.2% of the coverage rate） in total, with a trend of decrease and recovery. Before the 1960s, there was a trend of accelerated descending. The forest area was reduced by 1.66×10^8 hm^2 （or 17% of the coverage rate） in 260 years. While after the 1960s, there has been a rapid increase. The forest area increased by 0.7×10^8 hm^2 （or 8% of the coverage rate） in 40 years. The study also shows that there is a significant spatial difference in the dynamics of forest. The amplitudes of increasing and decreasing in western China are both smaller than the ones in eastern China. During the rapid declining period from 1700 to 1949, the most serious decrease appeared in the Northeast, the Southwest and the Southeast, where the coverage rate in most provinces dropped over 20%. In Heilongjiang Province, the coverage rate dropped by 50%. In Jilin Province, it dropped by 36%. In Sichuan Province and Chongqing Municipality, it dropped by 42%. In Yunnan Province, it dropped by 35%. During the recovery period 1949-1998, the western provinces, municipality and autonomous regions, including Ningxia, Gansu, Inner Mongolia, Sichuan-Chongqing, Yunnan, Tibet, Xinjiang and Qinghai, etc, the increase rates are all below 5%, while the eastern provinces, municipality and autonomous regions （except Heilongjiang, Hubei, Jiangsu-Shanghai） have achieved an increase over 5%, among which the Guangdong-Hainan, Guangxi, Anhui, Beijing-Tianjin-H     

在时空框架中理解中国大学人文地理教学特色及其成因——以1912—1949年中国主要大学地理系为例

采用历史唯物主义史观,建立一个时空框架,分析民国时期中国大学人文地理教学特色及其成因。本文主要关注1912—1949年间,国立北平（北京）师范大学、国立中央大学、国立清华大学、国立中山大学的地理系的人文地理学教学特色。研究史料来自大学的教学档案、人物回忆文章、政府文件、中国学者编撰和翻译的教材和教参,同时参考了相关研究文献。借助时空框架,基于史料对比,得出结论：(1)只有在历史的时间脉络下,才能理解民国时期军事地理、国防地理和政治地理课程设置的必然性;(2)只有在世界格局的空间框架下,才能理解民国时期的“国耻地理”教育内容,以及“中体西用”主张的失败;(3)只有将时空框架进一步细化,才能深入理解民国时期大学人文地理教学中不同教师的能动性,如学术思想、教学风格、政治主张、教材编写和选用等。综上所述,只有站在开放的时空框架中,才能更为清醒地定位当前中国大学人文地理学教学。     

黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害及其防御对策

古黄河三角洲和现代黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害平均发生周期分别为11.3 a和6.4 a。现代黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害平均发生周期由1949年前的5.5~6.5 a延长至1949年以来的7.9 a,发生频率虽有所降低,但大型风暴潮灾害发生频率呈上升趋势,需修筑高等级的防潮堤坝。黄河三角洲风暴潮灾害取决于气象、地形和水文要素的综合效应:在气象因素制约下具有多发于初冬、春4月和台风期的季节特征;在地形因素制约下具有易发于SE风转NE风的天气特征;在水文因素制约下显示以近无潮点岸段为界,三角洲西、南两地成灾异时的特征。据此,开展风暴潮灾害预报和堤坝建设,可抵御潮灾和减轻潮灾危害。     

中国水电开发的生态足迹及其温室气体减排

水能资源是中国仅次于煤炭资源的第二大能源,2011年水电装机容量占中国电力装机容量的20．4％。为了对中国水电开发及其对环境的影响进行综合分析,该论文对过去60年来中国水电开发的生态足迹及其温室气体减排状况进行了评估。水电开发的生态足迹包括水电工程建设的能源消费足迹和土地占用生态足迹。能源生态足迹根据吸收化石能源消费过程中排放的二氧化碳所需要的森林面积来计算,土地占用生态足迹是将水库淹没等相关建设占用的土地按照耕地面积计算。评估结果表明,到2010年中国水电开发的能源生态足迹是50．24227Yha,就面积数量而言,占中国可耕地资源的0．3％,水电开发淹没的土地面积142万ha,占中国可耕地资源的1．2‰显然土地淹没的生态足迹远远大于水电开发的能源消耗生态足迹。对水电开发过程中的温室气体减排计算结果表明,自,9k1949年以来随着水电开发的迅速增长,因为水电利用减少的化石能源消耗所减少的CO,排放量也快速增长,2010年减排量达5．024Lt,过去60年来累积减排量达62．21亿t。     

1450—1949年川渝地区干旱时空变化

以县级行政单元 (县、县级市或区) 为研究单元,定量化川渝地区1450—1949年干旱等级,统计干旱发生年数,利用Matlab 8.3小波分析工具和ArcGIS 10.2 空间分析工具,探索干旱时间和空间变化特征。结果表明：① 500 a中有312 a为干旱年,每1.6 a发生1次,占比62.4%;早期（1450—1650年）干旱发生频率较高,中期（1650—1870年）降低,后期（1870—1949年）明显增高,存在200 a、100 a、65 a、30 a、10 a的周期;② 212个区县干旱等级以大旱为主,一般干旱次之,特大旱最少,其比例分别为50.1%、44.2%和5.7%;③ 空间上以局部干旱为主,范围为1~20个县的年份占了80.4%,其中低于5个县的年份约占56.0%;干旱频次自西向东显著增高,存在明显集聚效应,川西高原和川西南山地旱情较轻,沱江中游、嘉陵江中下游和长江沿岸等地较为严重;85%以上干旱集中于四川盆地;④ 干旱受太阳活动、地理位置、地形地貌、气候变化和土壤性质等自然因素控制,也受到历史时期人口分布和人类生产活动等人为条件影响。     

1912—1949年中国地理学者的发展特征分析

本文基于多种资料,梳理了1912—1949年中国地理学者姓名、生卒年、籍贯、领域、教育与工作经历等数据,从来源、增长、结构3个层面讨论当时中国地理学者发展进程。研究发现1912—1949年间：① 地理学者在来源层面可分舆地学者、外聘地理学者、现代学制培养地理学者（含有交集关系的国内培养学者、留学培养学者、跨学科学者）3种类型,不同类型群体对地理学者发展的影响差异明显;② 地理学者数量发展可分1912—1927年波动增长,1928—1939年持续增长,1940—1941年急速增长和1942—1949年放缓增长4个时期;③ 中国地理学者学科结构、领域结构、学缘结构、地域结构、年龄结构、性别结构等方面均表现为失衡但失衡程度趋于降低的态势;④ 地理学者发展与地理教学、研究机构发展关系密切,特别是高等地理教学机构对地理学者发展有多重影响。1912—1949年中国地理学者的发展为中国科学地理学的持续进步奠定了人才基础,其过程同时是中国近现代地理学转型的一个侧面。     

试从气候和人类活动看黄河问题

该文从气候和人类活动的角度出发 ,选取了人类历史时期的两个时间段 (194 9年以前和以后 ) :在第一阶段 ,从农牧业界线的变迁、黄河下游的河湖变迁、黄河曲率的变化、历史时期的气候和黄河在历史时期的决淤泛滥频率的对比与关系方面分析 ,得出黄河下游的决淤泛滥有两个最关键的因素 ,即人类活动叠加于气候的变迁之上 ;在第二阶段 ,黄河下游及河口三角洲延伸缓慢 ,主要原因应是气候的变化 ,所以黄河中游的生态建设切不可掉以轻心。     

Statistic forecast of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002, a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.     

中国登陆台风的统计预报

According to the measured data of typhoons going over the Chinese coasts in 1949-2002,a statistic relative equation showing the relation between the central atmospheric pressure of typhoons in a certain region at a certain period of time and their accumulation of frequency is established, and the concept of recurrence interval of typhoons is put forward, which is of actual significance for typhoon disaster reduction along the coastal area.