Diagnosis of the interaction of tropical cyclones

At present the mutual influence of tropical cyclones (TCs) has been investigated to a much lesser extent than the cyclones themselves. Most frequently, such investigations are restricted to the study of the influence of the interaction of two TCs on their motion. However, actually, the mutual influence of TCs is much more diverse. For example, each cyclone alters the state of the medium (in particular, decreases the heat store of the upper ocean layer), i.e., affects the subsequent cyclones. Under conditions of a limited energy resource of the medium, cyclones, existing simultaneously, “compete,” to a degree, with each other. These and other similar circumstances have made it practical to consider tropical cyclones and the environment as interdependent elements of a complex open system. This study considers two versions of nonlinear models describing the interaction of TCs with the upper ocean layer and with one another similarly to a number of well-known and verified models of synergetics (interaction of populations, dynamics of optical quantum generators). It is shown that the models reproduce some very important qualitative features of the evolution of TC intensity.     

Diurnal variations in the intensity of tropical cyclones

We statistically study diurnal variations in the maximum wind velocity in tropical cyclones on the basis of vast experimental material. We have found notable oscillations in the acceleration of rotation velocity (rate of variations in the maximum wind velocity), which are most pronounced in the periods of intensification and decay of the cyclones. The diurnal variations can differ notably in phase in different geographical conditions.     

Estimates for regression relationships between characteristics of tropical cyclones and gravity anomalies

We have obtained regression relationships between vertical components of gravity anomalies in tropical cyclone areas and some cyclonic characteristics. These regressions are more pronounced in territories where negative gravity anomalies are prevalent. Numerical experiments are performed for the cyclonic zone of the northwestern Pacific and western Atlantic. In the zone of the western Atlantic, the main focus is on cyclones entering to the terrestrial part of the United States. We conclude that under some conditions, gravity anomalies can affect the characteristics of tropical cyclones.     

海气相互作用对热带气旋发生发展影响研究综述

本文回顾了近几十年来海气相互作用对热带气旋形成和发展影响的研究情况.海表温度(SST)和海洋飞沫(sea spray)蒸发对热带气旋的强度和路径有一定的影响,但影响机制和程度如何,目前还存在争议.利用中尺度海气耦合模式进行数值模拟是研究海气相互作用对热带气旋影响的一个有效方法.介绍了国内外一些中尺度海气耦合模式,旨在推动建立适合我国海域用于热带气旋模拟和预报的海气耦合模式.     

近十年厦门湾赤潮发生与热带气旋的关系研究

利用2001-2010年历史赤潮记录、热带气旋、500hPa高空形势、地面形势以及逐日的气温、气压、相对湿度和风速等资料,分析研究了近十年厦门湾赤潮发生与热带气旋的关系.结果表明,在热带气旋外围暖舌的影响下,厦门湾往往会发生赤潮.热带气旋诱发厦门湾赤潮的时间主要集中在6-8月,诱发赤潮的热带气旋可归纳为南海西行型、台湾...     

阿拉伯海热带气旋生成特征分析

利用印度气象局（India Meteorological Department,IMD）、国际气候管理最佳路径档案库（International Best Track Archive for Climate Stewardship,IBTrACS）提供的1982—2020年阿拉伯海热带气旋路径资料,美国国家环境预报中心（National Centers for Environmental Prediction,NCEP）再分析资料,对近39 a阿拉伯海热带气旋源地和路径特征、活跃区域、频数及气旋累积能量（accumulated cyclone energy,ACE）指数的季节特征和年际变化特征进行分析,并结合环境因素,说明其物理成因。结果表明：阿拉伯海热带气旋多发于10°~25°N,65°~75°E海域,5—6月、9—12月发生频数较高且强度较强,1—4月、7—8月发生频数较低且气旋近中心最大风速均小于35 kn;频数的季节变化主要受控于垂直风切变要素;阿拉伯海热带气旋发生频数和ACE近年有上升趋势,年际变化主要受控于海面温度（sea surface temperature,SST）和850 hPa相对湿度要素。     

影响广西沿海的热带气旋分析

应用《台风年鉴》1953—2012年热带气旋(TC)最佳路径资料,统计分析了影响广西沿海TC和易引发广西沿海显著增水的TC的时空分布特征以及年际变化特征。结果表明:影响广西沿海的TC主要集中于7、8、9三个月份,以南海为主要源地,而引起广西沿海显著增水的TC多源于菲律宾以东大洋洋面。从影响广西沿海的TC在近60年频数和强度变化来看,广西沿海TC最大强度存在下降趋势,但每年的平均强度存在上升趋势。     

On some interrelations in the dynamics of tropical cyclonic activity

A chronological series of tropical cyclones is a flow of cyclonic activity where the bursts and calms of cyclonic activity alternate. Some interrelations between the stages of cyclonic activity have been studied. We derive the dependence that the length of the time interval between two consecutive of bursts of cyclonic activity have on a number of parameters of the first burst and the calm between the bursts. We find that one can estimate the intensity of the subsequent burst on the basis of the intensity of the previous burst. We derive a regression between the value of burst energy at a given time and the value of energy in the same burst for 1–3 days.     

Spatial distributions of tropical cyclones and gravity anomalies

Spatial distributions of the beginnings and most intense stages of tropical cyclones (TCs) in the northwestern part of the Pacific Ocean are compared with gravity anomalies (GAs) in the zone of action of cyclones. The possible influence of GAs on hurricanes that reached land in the Gulf of Mexico region and in the southeastern part of China is considered. The relation of the formal feedback between some characteristics of the intensity of TCs and spatially averaged GAs is shown. It is suggested that GAs can be regarded as a factor affecting the life cycle of a TC to a certain extent.     

近海北上热带气旋特征

通过研究分析1949-2011年在125°E以西近海北上,到达35°N以北登陆的热带气旋特征,总结出该类型热带气旋全部生成于125°-150°E,10°-29°N之间;出现此类型热带气旋时一般处于拉尼娜年,西太平洋副高强度较弱,副高西伸脊点偏东,副高脊线位置偏北;该类型热带气旋移动到125°E附近时,西风槽位置一般维持在110°-115°E,槽底位于25°-35°N等特征.     

影响青岛的热带气旋特征分析

本文对1949～2007年共59年影响青岛的热带气旋统计特征进行了分析.结果表明,影响青岛的热带气旋移动路径主要有5种类型,其生成源地与移动路径有一定的关系.影响时间主要集中在7月下旬至9月上旬;各月影响的主要路径及平均强度不同,影响时青岛出现6～7级的风力及偏北、南南东的风向频率较高,沿岸有时会伴有强的风暴潮.     

热带气旋气候数学模型的预报应用

使用西太平洋海温格点资料,选取若干个因子,组成多个复合因子,建立权重方程,使得单因子的相关系数信度检验0．05提高到复合因子的信度检验0．01,权重方程的信度检验提高到0．001。用权重方程产生的突变的高阶非线性预报方程,其Y与X的相关系数比1阶线性方程提高5％左右。自1999年至今,热带气旋年、月频数气候预测的模型投入到实际预报应用,其预报准确律达到75%～90％。使用非线性预报模型作了逐日气压、逐日雨量的气候预测。将沿海气压场、雨量场的气候预测结果用于分析、制作热带气旋登陆中国以及广东地区的时段、地段的气候预报,准确率达80％～90％。     

基于X波段雷达的台风浪观测分析

对比分析了博贺海洋气象观测站2008年7月11日-10月8日期间X波段雷达WaMoSII和浮标观测的三个台风过程的波浪资料,结果表明:在台风登陆前后的高海况下,两种资料的有效波高和平均波向的大小和变化趋势均吻合较好,并且有效波高的相对差异小于平均波向,而在台风来临的前期和后期消退阶段,有效波高和平均波向的大小有一定的差异,但其变化趋势仍具有较好的一致性.     

Seasonal variability of tropical cyclones generated over the South China Sea

The seasonal variability of tropical cyclones (CTCs) generated over the South China Sea (SCS) from 1948 to 2003 is analyzed. It peaks in occurrence in August and few generate in late winter (from January to March). The seasonal activity is attributed to the variability of atmosphere and ocean environments associated with the monsoon system. It is found that the monsoonal characteristics of the SCS basically determine the region of tropical cyclone (TC) genesis in each month.     

热带气旋闪电活动特征研究综述

针对热带气旋(tropical cyclone,TC)闪电已有研究,首先从闪电活动分布特征、眼壁闪电爆发对TC强度和路径的指示、外雨带闪电活动与雨带对流结构的关系三个方面进行了总结;其次从动力-微物理方面对TC闪电的形成原因和特征机理进行了梳理;最后提出当前研究中存在的两个关键问题,并对后续研究内容进行了展望。基于地基和空基相结合的综合闪电探测得到的闪电属性特征参量,有望建立一个明确的、具有代表性的闪电活动-TC强度变化关系。利用沿海地区架设的三维闪电定位系统结合地基双偏振雷达,针对登陆台风强对流过程开展的综合观测研究,将有助于推进闪电观测资料在台风中小尺度强对流监测、预警和资料同化中的应用。     

20世纪50年代以来登陆中国热带气旋的变化特征分析

基于1951—2017年西北太平洋热带气旋路径资料,利用趋势分析、R/S分析以及周期分析等方法对近67年来登陆中国热带气旋的个数、频次、强度以及登陆位置等热带气旋活动特征进行深入分析,结果表明:(1)近67年登陆中国热带气旋的个数和频次均呈下降趋势,下降幅度分别为0.003个/a和0.008次/a,但变化趋势均不显著,未来一段时期热带气旋登陆个数、频次将呈缓慢增加趋势。(2) 6—10月是热带气旋发生和登陆的高频期,其中,8月份热带气旋的发生次数和登陆中国的次数均最多。(3)历年最低中心气压、平均中心气压均呈增加趋势,且最低中心气压通过了M-K显著性检验;热带气旋登陆强度总体呈减弱趋势,且未来一段时期将继续呈减弱趋势,但高强度热带气旋呈显著增加趋势。(4)广东、台湾、海南、福建和浙江是热带气旋的主要登陆地;热带气旋的登陆位置呈向东、向北偏移趋势,且未来时期该偏移趋势仍将持续。利用热带气旋路径数据分析1951—2017年登陆中国热带气旋的数量、强度等变化,旨在深入认识影响中国的热带气旋活动的特征及规律,为热带气旋的预报、预警及防灾减灾工作等提供科学参考。     

影响山东热带气旋活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系

利用1949～2003年热带气旋年鉴资料,对55年来影响山东热带气旋(TC)活动的气候特征与太平洋海温的关系进行了分析.结果表明:(1)在厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC频数较常年明显偏少.厄尔尼诺次年TC频数较常年稍有增加;拉尼娜年影响山东的TC频数较常年显著偏多,增加明显的月份主要是8月和9月,拉尼娜次年,影响山东TC频数偏少.厄尔尼诺事件强度越大,影响山东的TC频数越少;(2)影响山东的TC数和菲律宾以东洋面的海温呈正相关,并具有很好的持续性.影响山东的TC多年,赤道中东太平洋有较强的负距平区,影响山东的TC少年,赤道中东太平洋为正距平区;(3)厄尔尼诺年,影响山东的TC强度偏强.拉尼娜年,影响山东的TC强度明显偏弱.影响山东的TC强度厄尔尼诺年要比拉尼娜年强很多;(4)影响山东TC偏强年在赤道中东太平洋有较强的正距平区,影响山东TC偏弱年在赤道中东太平洋地区有较强的负距平.综上说明赤道中东太平洋的海温高低对影响山东的TC频数和强度有较好的指示作用.     

Variation in the intensity of tropical cyclones in connection with global warming

In connection with global warming, the growth in the intensity of tropical hurricanes is predicted. The onset of this intensification is partially illustrated by the western Atlantic cyclonic zone [1]. It is noted in [1]that, due to global warming, the sea-surface temperature (SST) over the entire world has increased by 0.6°C since 1970. Since the SST basically determines the energy of tropical hurricanes, it is inferred that global warming will lead to an enhancement in their intensity. This publication presents a plot of the dynamics of SST annual mean anomalies for the northwestern Atlantic and pays special attention to significant excess mean temperatures since 1994. The anomalies are determined with respect to the mean temperature calculated from SSTs over 1901–1970. The same plot also shows that the SST at the end of the 1940s and during the 1950s exceeded the mean temperature by about 0.3 or even 0.4°C, decreasing gradually to negative anomalies (?0.3°C) in 1973. After that, the temperature started to increase again. Figure 1 shows a detail of this plot, which relates to the period 1950–2000.     

厄尔尼诺与影响福建的热带气旋

资料统计分析显示,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ年,影响福建的热带气旋较常年显著偏少,ＬａＮｉｎａ年,影响福建热带的气旋较常年偏多,ｔ检验表明,两者之间差异显著。其机制是,ＥｌＮｉｎｏ活动期间,西太平洋副热带高压强度大,位置偏南、偏西、ＩＴＣＺ位置偏南,热带气旋生成区对流活动弱,不利于热带气旋的生成和北上影响福建,ＬａＮｉｎｅ年,副热带高中度北,位置偏北,偏东,ＩＴＣＺ位置偏北,热带气旋生成区对流活动旺盛,有利于热