Application of Network-averaged Teleseismic P-wave Spectra to Seismic Yield Estimation of Underground Nuclear Explosions

—?A set of procedures is described for estimating network-averaged teleseismic P-wave spectra for underground nuclear explosions and for analytically inverting these spectra to obtain estimates of m _b /yield relations and individual yields for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites. These procedures are then applied to the analyses of explosions at the former Soviet test sites at Shagan River, Degelen Mountain, Novaya Zemlya and Azgir, as well as at the French Sahara, U.S. Amchitka and Chinese Lop Nor test sites. It is demonstrated that the resulting seismic estimates of explosion yield and m _b /yield relations are remarkably consistent with a variety of other available information for a number of these test sites. These results lead us to conclude that the network-averaged teleseismic P-wave spectra provide considerably more diagnostic information regarding the explosion seismic source than do the corresponding narrowband magnitude measures such as m _b , M _s and m _b (L _g ), and, therefore, that they are to be preferred for applications to seismic yield estimation for explosions at previously uncalibrated test sites.     

Optimization of Surface Wave Identification and Measurement

—?Accurate and reliable measurement of surface waves is important to Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) monitoring because the M _s :m _b discriminant and its regional variants can in many cases unambiguously identify events as earthquakes or explosions. Surface wave processing at the International Data Center (IDC) is designed to be completely automated and is performed using the program Maxsurf. Maxsurf searches for surface wave characteristics in the expected surface wave arrival time window for all continuous long-period and broadband data in the IDC processing stream. The Prototype IDC GSETT3 Reviewed Event Bulletin (REB) now contains a very large and growing data set of surface wave measurements. Users of this data set need to be aware of processing changes and calibration errors in the GSETT3 experimental bulletin. The prototype International Monitoring System (IMS) surface wave detection threshold is approximately one magnitude unit lower than the detection threshold of other global networks that use visual identification of surface waves. Surface wave identification and measurement can be improved through development of regionalized earth models, phase-matched filtering and the use of path corrected spectral magnitudes in place of M _s . Regionalized earth models are developed through tomographic inversion of a very large data set of phase and group velocity dispersion measurements. Discrimination capability can be improved through the use of maximum likelihood magnitudes and maximum likelihood upper bounds.     

Forensic seismology revisited

The first technical discussions, held in 1958, on methods of verifying compliance with a treaty banning nuclear explosions, concluded that a monitoring system could be set up to detect and identify such explosions anywhere except underground: the difficulty with underground explosions was that there would be some earthquakes that could not be distinguished from an explosion. The development of adequate ways of discriminating between earthquakes and underground explosions proved to be difficult so that only in 1996 was a Comprehensive Nuclear Test Ban Treaty (CTBT) finally negotiated. Some of the important improvements in the detection and identification of underground tests—that is in forensic seismology—have been made by the UK through a research group at the Atomic Weapons Establishment (AWE). The paper describes some of the advances made in identification since 1958, particularly by the AWE Group, and the main features of the International Monitoring System (IMS), being set up to verify the Test Ban. Once the Treaty enters into force, then should a suspicious disturbance be detected the State under suspicion of testing will have to demonstrate that the disturbance was not a test. If this cannot be done satisfactorily the Treaty has provisions for on-site inspections (OSIs): for a suspicious seismic disturbance for example, an international team of inspectors will search the area around the estimated epicentre of the disturbance for evidence that a nuclear test really took place. Early observations made at epicentral distances out to 2,000 km from the Nevada Test Site showed that there is little to distinguish explosion seismograms from those of nearby earthquakes: for both source types the short-period (SP: ∼1 Hz) seismograms are complex showing multiple arrivals. At long range, say 3,000–10,000 km, loosely called teleseismic distances, the AWE Group noted that SP P waves—the most widely and well-recorded waves from underground explosions—were in contrast simple, comprising one or two cycles of large amplitude followed by a low-amplitude coda. Earthquake signals on the other hand were often complex with numerous arrivals of similar amplitude spread over 35 s or more. It therefore appeared that earthquakes could be recognised on complexity. Later however, complex explosion signals were observed which reduced the apparent effectiveness of complexity as a criterion for identifying earthquakes. Nevertheless, the AWE Group concluded that for many paths to teleseismic distances, Earth is transparent for P signals and this provides a window through which source differences will be most clearly seen. Much of the research by the Group has focused on understanding the influence of source type on P seismograms recorded at teleseismic distances. Consequently the paper concentrates on teleseismic methods of distinguishing between explosions and earthquakes. One of the most robust criteria for discriminating between earthquakes and explosions is the m _b : M _s criterion which compares the amplitudes of the SP P waves as measured by the body-wave magnitude m _b, and the long-period (LP: ∼0.05 Hz) Rayleigh-wave amplitude as measured by the surface-wave magnitude M _s; the P and Rayleigh waves being the main wave types used in forensic seismology. For a given M _s, the m _b for explosions is larger than for most earthquakes. The criterion is difficult to apply however, at low magnitude (say m _b < 4.5) and there are exceptions—earthquakes that look like explosions. A difficulty with identification criteria developed in the early days of forensic seismology was that they were in the main empirical—it was not known why they appeared to work and if there were test sites or earthquakes where they would fail. Consequently the AWE Group in cooperation with the University of Cambridge used seismogram modelling to try and understand what controls complexity of SP P seismograms, and to put the m _b : M _s criterion on a theoretical basis. The results of this work show that the m _b : M _s criterion is robust because several factors contribute to the separation of earthquakes and explosions. The principal reason for the separation however, is that for many orientations of the earthquake source there is at least one P nodal plane in the teleseismic window and this biases m _b low. Only for earthquakes with near 45° dip-slip mechanisms where the antinode of P is in the source window is the m _b:M _s criterion predicted to fail. The results from modelling are consistent with observation—in particular there are earthquakes, “anomalous events”, which look explosion-like on the m _b:M _s criterion, that turn out to have mechanisms close to 45° dip-slip. Fortunately the P seismograms from such earthquakes usually show pP and sP, the reflections from the free surface of P and S waves radiated upwards. From the pP–P and sP–P times the focal depth can be estimated. So far the estimated depth of the anomalous events have turned out to be ∼20 km, too deep to be explosions. Studies show that the observation that P seismograms are more complex than predicted by simple models can be explained on the weak-signal hypothesis: the standard phases, direct P and the surface reflections, are weak because of amongst other things, the effects of the radiation pattern or obstacles on the source-to-receiver path; other non-standard arrivals then appear relatively large on the seismograms. What has come out of the modelling of P seismograms is a criterion for recognising suspicious disturbances based on simplicity rather than complexity. Simple P seismograms for earthquakes at depths of more than a few kilometres are likely to be radiated only to stations that lie in a confined range of azimuths and distances. If then, simple seismograms are recorded over a wide range of distances and particularly azimuths, it is unlikely the source is an earthquake at depth. It is possible to test this using the relative amplitudes of direct P and later arrivals that might be surface reflections. The procedure is to use only the simple P seismograms on the assumption that whereas the propagation through Earth may make a signal more complex it is unlikely to make it simpler. From the amplitude of the coda of these seismograms, bounds can be placed on the size of possible pP and sP. The relative-amplitude method is then used to search for orientations of the earthquake source that are compatible with the observations. If no such orientations are found the source must be shallow so that any surface reflections merge with direct P, and hence could be an explosion. The IMS when completed will be a global network of 321 monitoring stations, including 170 seismological stations principally to detect the seismic waves from earthquakes and underground explosions. The IMS will also have stations with hydrophones, microbarographs and radionuclide detectors to detect explosions in the oceans and the atmosphere and any isotopes in the air characteristic of a nuclear test. The Global Communications Infrastructure provides communications between the IMS stations and the International Data Centre (IDC), Vienna, where the recordings from the monitoring stations is collected, collated, and analysed. The IDC issues bulletins listing geophysical disturbances, to States Signatories to the CTBT. The assessment of the disturbances to decide whether any are possible explosions, is a task for State Signatories. For each Signatory to do a detailed analysis of all disturbances would be expensive and time consuming. Fortunately many disturbances can be readily identified as earthquakes and removed from consideration—a process referred to as “event screening”. For example, many earthquakes with epicentres over the oceans can be distinguished from underwater explosions, because an explosion signal is of much higher frequency than that of earthquakes that occur below the ocean bed. Further, many earthquakes could clearly be identified at the IDC on the m _b : M _s criterion, but there is a difficulty—how to set the decision line. The possibility has to be very small that an explosion will be classed by mistake, as an earthquake. The decision line has therefore to be set conservatively, consequently with routine application of current screening criteria, only about 50% of earthquakes can be positively identified as such. Various methods have been proposed whereby a “determined violator” could avoid the provisions of a CTBT and carry out a test that would be either undetected or detected but not identified as an explosion. The increase in complexity and cost of such a test should discourage any State from attempting it. In addition, there is always the possibility of some stations detecting the test, the test being identified as suspicious, and so subject to an OSI. With time as the IMS becomes more efficient and effective it will act increasingly to deter anyone contemplating a clandestine test, from going ahead. What has emerged is several robust criteria. The criteria include: location, which when combined with hydro-acoustic data can identify earthquakes under the sea; m _b : M _s; and depth of focus. More detailed study is required of any remaining seismic disturbance that is regarded as suspicious: for example, is close to a site where nuclear tests have been carried out in the past. Any disturbance that is shown to be explosion-like, may be the subject of an OSI. One surprise is how little plate tectonics has contributed to resolving problems in forensic seismology. Much of the evidence for plate tectonics comes from seismological studies so it would be expected that the implications for Earth structure arising from forensic seismology would be consistent with plate-tectonic models. So far the AWE Group have found little synergy between plate tectonics and forensic seismology. It is to be hoped that the large volume of seismological data of high quality now being collected by the IMS and the increasing number of digital stations, will result in a revised Earth model that is consistent with the findings of forensic seismology, so that a future review of progress will show that the forensic seismologist can draw on this model in attempting to interpret apparently anomalous seismograms.

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Experimental Seismic Event-screening Criteria at the Prototype International Data Center

—?Experimental seismic event-screening capabilities are described, based on the difference of body-and surface-wave magnitudes (denoted as M _s :m _b ) and event depth. These capabilities have been implemented and tested at the prototype International Data Center (PIDC), based on recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in June 1998. Screening scores are presented that indicate numerically the degree to which an event meets, or does not meet, the M _s :m _b and depth screening criteria. Seismic events are also categorized as onshore, offshore, or mixed, based on their 90% location error ellipses and an onshore/offshore grid with five-minute resolution, although this analysis is not used at this time to screen out events.¶Results are presented of applications to almost 42,000 events with m _b ?≥?3.5 in the PIDC Standard Event Bulletin (SEB) and to 121 underground nuclear explosions (UNE's) at the U.S. Nevada Test Site (NTS), the Semipalatinsk and Novaya Zemlya test sites in the Former Soviet Union, the Lop Nor test site in China, and the Indian, Pakistan, and French Polynesian test sites. The screening criteria appear to be quite conservative. None of the known UNE's are screened out, while about 41 percent of the presumed earthquakes in the SEB with m _b ?≥?3.5 are screened out. UNE's at the Lop Nor, Indian, and Pakistan test sites on 8 June 1996, 11 May 1998, and 28 May 1998, respectively, have among the lowest M _s :m _b scores of all events in the SEB.¶To assess the validity of the depth screening results, comparisons are presented of SEB depth solutions to those in other bulletins that are presumed to be reliable and independent. Using over 1600 events, the comparisons indicate that the SEB depth confidence intervals are consistent with or shallower than over 99.8 percent of the corresponding depth estimates in the other bulletins. Concluding remarks are provided regarding the performance of the experimental event-screening criteria, and plans for future improvements, based on recent recommendations by the IDC Technical Experts on Event Screening in May 1999.     

Regional Magnitude Scaling, Transportability, and Ms:mb Discrimination at Small Magnitudes

—?Data sets of m _b (Pn) and m _b (Lg) measurements are presented for three continental regions in order to investigate scaling relationships with moment magnitude M _w and event discrimination at small magnitudes. Compilations of published measurements are provided for eastern North American and central Asian earthquakes, and new measurements are reported for earthquakes located in western United States. Statistical tests on M _w :m _b relationships show that the m _b (Lg) scale of Nuttli (1973) is transportable between tectonic regions, and a single, unified M _w :m _b (Lg) relationship satisfies observations for M _w ～4.2–6.5 in all regions. A unified relationship is also developed for nuclear explosions detonated at the Nevada Test Site and test sites of the former Soviet Union. Regional m _b for explosions scale at higher rates than for earthquakes, and of significance is the finding that m _b (Pn) for explosions scales at a higher rate than m _b (Lg). A model is proposed where differences in scaling rates are related to effects of spectral overshoot and near-field Rg scattering on the generation of Pn and Lg waves by explosions. For earthquakes, m _b (Pn) and m _b (Lg) scale similarly, showing rates near 1.0 or 2/3?·?log₁₀ M _o (seismic moment).¶M _w :m _b (Lg) scaling results are converted to unified M _s :m _b (Lg) relationships using scaling laws between log M _o and M _s . For earthquakes with M _s greater than 3.0, the scaling rate is 0.69?·?M _s , which is the same as it is for nuclear explosions if M _s is proportional to 1.12?·?log M _o, as determined by NTS observations. Thus, earthquake and explosion populations are parallel and separated by 0.68 m _b units for large events. For small events (M _s ?M _s :m _b (Lg) plots for stable and tectonic regions, respectively. While the scaling rate for explosions is ～0.69, this value is uncertain due to paucity of M _o observations at small yields. Measurements of [m _b (P)???m _b (Lg)] for earthquakes in the western United States have an average value of ?0.33?±?.03 m _b units, in good agreement with Nuttli's estimate of m _b bias for NTS. This result suggests that Nuttli's method for estimating test site bias can be extended to earthquakes to make estimates of bias on regional scales. In addition, a new approach for quick assessments of regional bias is proposed where M _s :m _b (P) observations are compared with M _s :m _b (Lg) relationships. Catalog M _s :m _b (P) data suggest that m _b bias is significant for tectonic regions of southern Asia, averaging about ?0.4 m _b units.     

Discriminating Between Large Mine Collapses and Explosions Using Teleseismic P Waves

—?Some of the most suspicious seismic disturbances under the Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty (CTBT) are likely to be those associated with mining, as they are shallow, and at least some have an explosion-like m _b :M _s signature. Previous research highlighted the potential of broadband teleseismic P waves as a way of identifying large mine tremors. Broadband teleseismic P from two suspected large mine collapses, one in Germany (1302 UT, 13 March 1989, 5.4?m _b ) and another in Wyoming (1526 UT, 3 February 1995, 5.3?m _b ), show differences in character despite the similarity of the reported ground failure and mine types. We apply a full moment-tensor analysis to the teleseismic P waves and show that the data are inconsistent with either a shallow explosion or an earthquake (double-couple) at depth, but this method is unable to distinguish between a shallow dip-slip source and a closing-crack moment tensor. However, three-component surface-wave seismograms recorded at regional distances fit the shallow closing-crack model, but are inconsistent with a shallow earthquake source, because strong Love waves, expected from a double-couple source, are not observed at a number of stations well distributed in azimuth. Here, we restate the equivalence for shallow sources of the closing-crack model and a gravitational collapse model. We use the latter to model the broadband P waves from these mine tremors and show that, while non-unique, the differences in the observed broadband P waves from the two tremors can be attributed to the area, amount of collapse, depth, and rate of collapse. The collapse model predicts negative first-motion for all P waves in contrast to the positive polarity expected from explosions. Thus, the broadband teleseismic P waves have the potential to discriminate between large collapses and explosions.     

Analysis of the 2012–2013 Torreperogil-Sabiote seismic swarm

This study analyses the temporal clustering, spatial clustering, and statistics of the 2012–2013 Torreperogil-Sabiote (southern Spain) seismic swarm. During the swarm, more than 2200 events were located, mostly at depths of 2–5 km, with magnitude event up to m_bLg 3.9 (M_w 3.7). On the basis of daily activity rate, three main temporal phases are identified and analysed. The analysis combines different seismological relationships to improve our understanding of the physical processes related to the swarm's occurrence. Each temporal phase is characterized by its cumulative seismic moment. Using several different approaches, we estimate a catalog completeness magnitude of m_c≅ 1.5. The maximum likelihood b-value estimates for each swarm phase are 1.11 ± 0.09, 1.04 ± 0.04, and 0.90 ± 0.04, respectively. To test the hypothesis that a b-value decrease is a precursor to a large event, we study temporal variations in b-value using overlapping moving windows. A relationship can be inferred between change in b-value and the regime style of the rupture. b-values are indicators of the stress regime, and influence the size of ruptures. The fractal dimension D₂ is used to perform spatial analysis. Cumulative gamma and beta functions are used to analyse the behaviour of inter-event distances during the earthquake sequence.     

Improved seismic discrimination using pattern recognition

The problem of discriminating between earthquakes and underground nuclear explosions is formulated as a problem in pattern recognition. As such it may be separated into two stages, feature extraction and classification. The short-period (SP) features consist of m_b and autoregressive parameters characterising the preceding noise, signal and coda. The long-period (LP) features consist of LP power spectral estimates taken within various group velocity windows. Contrary to common usage we have extracted features from horizontal Rayleigh waves and Love waves as well as vertical Rayleigh waves. The classification is performed by approximating the statistical distribution of earthquake and explosion feature vectors by multivariate normal distributions.The method has been tested on a data base containing 52 explosions and 73 earthquakes from Eurasia recorded at NORSAR between 1971 and 1975. Several of these events are difficult on the m_b : M_s diagram [m_b(PDE) and M_s (NORSAR) have been used]. The data set was divided into a learning and an independent data set. All of the events both from the learning data set and the independent data set were correctly classified using the new procedures. Furthermore, the increase in separation as compared to the m_b : M_s discriminant is significant.     

The use of teleseismic P-wave complexity for seismic event screening – results determined from GRF and GERESS array data

Seismic data recorded at the broad-band teleseismic GRF array and theshort-period regional GERESS array, which is a designated IMS primarystation, are analyzed to determine the effectiveness of teleseismic P-wave complexity for the purpose of seismic event screening within theframework of Comprehensive Nuclear-Test-Ban Treaty verification. For theGRF array, seismic waveform data from nearly 200 nuclear explosions havebeen recorded since its installation in the late 1970's, which were studiedalong with several thousand earthquakes from the last few years.Additionally, we investigated teleseismic P wave complexity for a similarnumber of earthquakes recorded at GERESS. However, owing to itsoperation starting in 1991, only a limited number of nuclear explosionseismograms are available for study.For nuclear explosions, complexity does not exceed levels of 0.3 except fora number of events from the Nevada Test Site recorded only at the GRFarray and located at a large distance where PcP may interfere with the initialP wavelet. Since all events with complexity at GRF larger than 0.3 areexclusively located on Pahute Mesa within the Nevada Test Site,near-source geology or topography must play a dominant role for theseincreased complexity values, while PcP may not contribute significantly tothe high-frequency energy measured by the complexity parameter.Although many earthquakes show complexities below this level, for morethan 25% of the earthquakes investigated the complexities determined arelarger than 0.7, thus showing distinctly larger values than nuclearexplosions. Therefore, this percentage may be screened as earthquakes fromall seismic events detected. As currently only about half of the eventsdetected by the global IMS network are screened out based on focal depthand the m _b :M _s criterion, teleseismic P-wavecomplexity may contribute significantly to the task of seismic eventscreening.     

Study of Regional Surface Waves and Frequency-dependent Ms:mb Discrimination in the European Arctic

—?Accurate discrimination of seismic events with a regional network requires detailed knowledge of the propagation characteristics of seismic waves in the region. At present, such propagation characteristics are reasonably well known for P and S waves in the European Arctic, however much work remains to be done regarding surface wave propagation and magnitude estimation.¶Regional long-period or broadband seismic data in digital form has been available in the European Arctic for only a few years. In order to assess regional surface wave propagation, and in particular to evaluate the M _s :m _b discriminant at regional distances, it is therefore necessary to take advantage of the historic analog recordings. The station APA in Apatity forms a unique source of such data, with high-quality long-period seismic recordings of regional earthquakes and nuclear explosions dating back about 30 years.¶This paper presents initial results from a project to digitize APA surface waves of selected regional events. The recordings for recent years have been compared to a colocated broadband Guralp three-component seismometer in order to verify the response characteristics and the quality of the digitization process. It turns out that the quality of the digitized records is excellent, and can be used over a spectral band ranging from 5?seconds to at least 30?seconds period.¶We demonstrate the capabilities of the APA surface wave recordings to provide a promising separation of earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic over a range of frequencies using the M _s :m _b discriminant, although we note that additional work is required in regionalization of the propagation paths to take into account the major tectonic features in the region. We also note that the body-wave magnitudes provided by international agencies are not always reliable for events in this region, and must be reassessed in order to make full use of the earthquake-explosion discrimination potential.     

Quantification relations between the sourc eparameters

The various useful source-parameter relations between seismic moment and common use magnitude lg(M ₀) andM _s,M _L,m _b; between magnitudesMs andM _L,M _s andm _b,M _L andm _b; and between magnitudeM _s and lg(L) (fault length), lg (W) (fault width), lg(S) (fault area), lg(D) (average dislocation);M _L and lg(f _c) (corner frequency) have been derived from the scaling law which is based on an “average” two-dimensional faulting model of a rectangular fault. A set of source-parameters can be estimated from only one magnitude by using these relations. The average rupture velocity of the faultV _r=2.65 km/s, the total time of ruptureT(s)=0.35L (km) and the average dislocation slip rateD=11.4 m/s are also obtained. There are four strong points to measure earthquake size with the seismic moment magnitudeM _w.

1. The seismic moment magnitude shows the strain and rupture size. It is the best scale for the measurement of earthquake size.
2. It is a quantity of absolute mechanics, and has clear physical meaning. Any size of earthquake can be measured. There is no saturation. It can be used to quantify both shallow and deep earthquakes on the basis of the waves radiated.
3. It can link up the previous magnitude scales.
4. It is a uniform scale of measurement of earthquake size. It is suitable for statistics covering a broad range of magnitudes. So the seismic moment magnitude is a promising magnitude and worth popularization.

     

Calibration of magnitude scales for earthquakes of the Mediterranean

In order to provide the tools for uniform size determination for Mediterranean earthquakes over the last 50-year period of instrumental seismology, we have regressed the magnitude determinations for 220 earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region over the 1977–1991 period, reported by three international centres, 11 national and regional networks and 101 individual stations and observatories, using seismic moments from the Harvard CMTs. We calibrate M(M₀) regression curves for the magnitude scales commonly used for Mediterranean earthquakes (M_L, M_WA, m_b, M_S, M_LH, M_LV, M_D, M); we also calibrate static corrections or specific regressions for individual observatories and we verify the reliability of the reports of different organizations and observatories. Our analysis shows that the teleseismic magnitudes (m_b, M_S) computed by international centers (ISC, NEIC) provide good measures of earthquake size, with low standard deviations (0.17–0.23), allowing one to regress stable regional calibrations with respect to the seismic moment and to correct systematic biases such as the hypocentral depth for M_S and the radiation pattern for m_b; while m_b is commonly reputed to be an inadequate measure of earthquake size, we find that the ISC m_b is still today the most precise measure to use to regress M_W and M₀ for earthquakes of the European-Mediterranean region; few individual observatories report teleseismic magnitudes requiring specific dynamic calibrations (BJI, MOS). Regional surface-wave magnitudes (M_LV, M_LH) reported in Eastern Europe generally provide reliable measures of earthquake size, with standard deviations often in the 0.25–0.35 range; the introduction of a small (±0.1–0.2) static station correction is sometimes required. While the Richter magnitude M_L is the measure of earthquake size most commonly reported in the press whenever an earthquake strikes, we find that M_L has not been computed in the European-Mediterranean in the last 15 years; the reported local magnitudes M_WA and M_L do not conform to the Richter formula and are of poor quality and little use, with few exceptions requiring ad hoc calibrations similar to the M_S regression (EMSC, ATH). The duration magnitude M_D used by most seismic networks confirms that its use requires accurate station calibrations and should be restricted only to events with low seismic moments.     

Observed Characteristics of Regional Seismic Phases and Implications for P/S Discrimination in the European Arctic

—?In this paper, we use data from seismic stations operated by NORSAR, the Kola Regional Seismological Centre (KRSC) and IRIS to study the characteristics of regional phases in the European Arctic, with emphasis on the P/S ratio discriminant. While the detection and location capability of the regional station network is outstanding, source classification of small seismic events has proved very difficult. For example, the m _b ?=?3.5 seismic event near Novaya Zemlya on 16 August, 1997 has been the subject of extensive analysis in order to locate it reliably and to classify the source type. We consider the application of the P/S discriminant in the context of this event and other events observed at regional distances in the European Arctic. We show that the P/S ratios of Novaya Zemlya nuclear explosions measured in the 1–3?Hz filter band scale with magnitude, indicating a need for caution and further research when applying P/S discriminants. Using mainly data from the large NORSAR array, we note that observed P/S amplitude ratios in the European Arctic show large variability for the same source type and similar propagation paths, even when considering closely spaced observation points. This effect is most pronounced at far regional distances and relatively low frequencies (typically 1–3?Hz), but it is also significant on closer recordings (around 10 degrees) and at higher frequencies (up to about 8?Hz). Our conclusion from this study is that the P/S ratio at high frequencies (e.g., 6–8?Hz) shows promise as a discriminant between low-magnitude earthquakes and explosions in the European Arctic, but its application will require further research, including extensive regional calibration and detailed station-source corrections. Such research should also focus on combining the P/S ratio with other short-period discriminants, such as complexity and spectral ratios.     

Comparison between different earthquake magnitudes determined by China Seismograph Network

By linear regression and orthogonal regression methods, comparisons are made between different magnitudes (lo-cal magnitude ML, surface wave magnitudes MS and MS7, long-period body wave magnitude mB and short-period body wave magnitude mb) determined by Institute of Geophysics, China Earthquake Administration, on the basis of observation data collected by China Seismograph Network between 1983 and 2004. Empirical relations between different magnitudes have been obtained. The result shows that: 1 As different magnitude scales reflect radiated energy by seismic waves within different periods, earthquake magnitudes can be described more objectively by using different scales for earthquakes of different magnitudes. When the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, local magnitude ML can be a preferable scale; In case M<4.5, there is little difference between the magnitude scales; In case 4.5MS, i.e., MS underestimates magnitudes of such events, therefore, mB can be a better choice; In case M>6.0, MS>mB>mb, both mB and mb underestimate the magnitudes, so MS is a preferable scale for deter-mining magnitudes of such events (6.08.5, a saturation phenomenon appears in MS, which cannot give an accurate reflection of the magnitudes of such large events; 2 In China, when the epicentral distance is less than 1 000 km, there is almost no difference between ML and MS, and thus there is no need to convert be-tween the two magnitudes in practice; 3 Although MS and MS7 are both surface wave magnitudes, MS is in general greater than MS7 by 0.2~0.3 magnitude, because different instruments and calculation formulae are used; 4 mB is almost equal to mb for earthquakes around mB4.0, but mB is larger than mb for those of mB≥4.5, because the periods of seismic waves used for measuring mB and mb are different though the calculation formulae are the same.     

Precise Relative Location of 25-ton Chemical Explosions at Balapan Using IMS Stations

—?We test how well low-magnitude (m _bLg 1.8 to 2.6), 25-ton chemical explosions at Balapan, Kazakhstan, can be located using IMS stations and standard earth models, relying on precisely determined relative arrival times of nearly similar, regional and teleseismic waveforms. Three 1997 Balapan explosions were recorded by a number of currently reporting and surrogate IMS stations. Three regional stations and two teleseismic arrays yielded consistent waveforms appropriate for relative picking. Master-event locations based on the AK135 model and ground-truth information from the first, shallowest and best-recorded explosion, fell under 1 km from known locations, for depths constrained to that of the master event. The resulting 90% confidence ellipses covered 12–13?km² and contained the true locations; however, results for depth constrained to true depth were slightly less satisf actory. From predictions based on ground truth, we found a P _g -coda phase at Makanchi, Kazakhstan to be misidentified and poorly modeled. After accounting for this, 90% ellipses shrank to 2–3?km² and true-depth mislocation vectors became more consistent with confidence-ellipse orientations. These results suggest that a high level of precision could be provided by a tripartite array of calibration shots in cases where models are poorly known. We hope that the successful relocation of these small Balapan shots will support the role of calibration explosions in verification monitoring and special event studies, including on-site inspection.     

Application of the dynamic calibration method to international monitoring system stations in Central Asia using natural seismicity data

The dynamic calibration method (DCM), using natural seismicity data and initially elaborated in [Kedrov, 2001; Kedrov et al., 2001; Kedrov and Kedrov, 2003], is applied to International Monitoring System (IMS) stations in Central Asia. The algorithm of the method is refined and a program is designed for calibrating diagnostic parameters (discriminants) that characterize a seismic source on the source-station traces. The DCM calibration of stations in relation to the region under study is performed by the choice of attenuation coefficients that adapt the diagnostic parameters to the conditions in a reference region. In this method, the stable Eurasia region is used as the latter. The calibration used numerical data samples taken from the archive of the International Data Centre (IDC) for the IMS stations MKAR, BVAR, EIL, ASF, and CMAR. In this paper, we used discriminants in the spectral and time domains that have the form

$D_i = X_i - a_m m_b - b_\Delta \log \Delta $

and are independent of the magnitude m _b and the epicentral distance Δ; these discriminants were elaborated in [Kedrov et al., 1990; Kedrov and Lyuke, 1999] on the basis of a method used for identification of events at regional distances in Eurasia. Prerequisites of the DCM are the assumptions that the coefficient a _m is regionindependent and the coefficient b _Δ depends only on the geotectonic characteristics of the medium and does not depend on the source type. Thus, b _Δ can be evaluated only from a sample of earthquakes in the region studied; it is used for adapting the discriminants D(X _i ) in the region studied to the reference region. The algorithm is constructed in such a way that corrected values of D(X i) are calculated from the found values of the calibration coefficients b _Δ, after which natural events in the region under study are selected by filtering. Empirical estimates of the filtering efficiency as a function of a station vary in a range of 95–100%. The DCM was independently tested using records obtained at the IRIS (Incorporated Research Institutions for Seismology) stations BRVK and MAKZ from explosions detonated in India on May 11, 1998, and Pakistan on May 28, 1998; these stations are similar in location and recording instrumentation characteristics to the IMS stations BVAR and MKAR. This test resulted in correct recognition of the source type and thereby directly confirmed the validity of the proposed calibration method of stations with the use of natural seismicity data. It is shown that the calibration coefficients b _Δ for traces similar in the conditions of signal propagation (e.g., the traces from Iran to the stations EIL and ASF) are comparable for nearly all diagnostic parameters. We arrive at the conclusion that the method of dynamic calibration of stations using natural seismicity data in a region where no explosions were detonated can be significant for a rapid and inexpensive calibration of IMS stations. The DCM can also be used for recognition of industrial chemical explosions that are sometimes erroneously classified in regional catalogs as earthquakes.

     

A scheme to set preferred magnitudes in the ISC Bulletin

One of the main purposes of the International Seismological Centre (ISC) is to collect, integrate and reprocess seismic bulletins provided by agencies around the world in order to produce the ISC Bulletin. This is regarded as the most comprehensive bulletin of the Earth’s seismicity, and its production is based on a unique cooperation in the seismological community that allows the ISC to complement the work of seismological agencies operating at global and/or local-regional scale. In addition, by using the seismic wave measurements provided by reporting agencies, the ISC computes, where possible, its own event locations and magnitudes such as short-period body wave m _b and surface wave M _S . Therefore, the ISC Bulletin contains the results of the reporting agencies as well as the ISC own solutions. Among the most used seismic event parameters listed in seismological bulletins, the event magnitude is of particular importance for characterizing a seismic event. The selection of a magnitude value (or multiple ones) for various research purposes or practical applications is not always a straightforward task for users of the ISC Bulletin and related products since a multitude of magnitude types is currently computed by seismological agencies (sometimes using different standards for the same magnitude type). Here, we describe a scheme that we intend to implement in routine ISC operations to mark the preferred magnitudes in order to help ISC users in the selection of events with magnitudes of their interest.     

A summary of seismic activities in and around China in 2021

In this article, we review the general characteristics of seismicity in and around China and the overall statistics of earthquake damage in 2021, focusing on several significant events and related scientific topics. Among them, the largest event is the M_S 7.4 Madoi earthquake in Qinghai Province, northwest China. The event marks another M_S ?≥ ?7 earthquake occurring near the boundary of the Bayan Har Block that has ended a remarkable quiescence of the M_S ?≥ ?7 earthquakes within the Chinese mainland. In addition, the M_S 6.4 Yangbi earthquake in Yunnan Province, southwest China draws the most attention because of its abundant foreshocks, which are well recorded by the densely distributed seismic stations in the surrounding regions. Regarding this event, we review several recent publications focusing on the Gutenberg-Richter b-value change and the physical mechanism of foreshocks associated with this sequence. The M_S 6.0 Luxian earthquake in Sichuan Province, southwest China has caused serious damage with a relatively low magnitude, partly because the focal depth of the mainshock is relatively shallow (3.5 ?km). It is another strong earthquake occurring within the southeast Sichuan basin with low historical seismicity yet has increased significantly since 2015, probably due to shale gas development and associated hydraulic fracturing.