巴伦支-喀拉海海温和青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际联系

基于1961—2017年中国气象局地表气温数据、JRA-55大气再分析数据以及美国国家海洋和大气管理局延伸重建的海温资料,研究了青藏高原冬季地表气温的年代际变化特征及其与海温的可能联系。结果表明：巴伦支-喀拉海冬季海温年代际变化可以激发出向东传播的Rossby波,在西伯利亚对流层高层产生异常的气旋或反气旋性环流,通过影响副极地以及副热带西风急流强度,在青藏高原的南侧产生异常的反气旋或气旋性环流,从而使得青藏高原上空的垂直运动发生变化,导致青藏高原冬季地表气温异常。     

内蒙古锡林郭勒盟2012年冬季暴雪过程天气学特征研究

暴雪是冬季雪灾发生的主因,气候变化导致极端天气气候事件频繁发生,准确预报暴雪天气过程对防灾减灾起着重要作用. 以内蒙古锡林郭勒盟地区2012年11月3-5日出现的一次暴雪天气过程为例,对2012年锡林郭勒盟地区冬季出现的暴雪天气过程进行了诊断分析. 结果表明：暴雪天气过程的主要环流背景条件是乌拉尔山长脊和西伯利亚冷涡,而高空蒙古低槽、低空切变线和地面河套气旋是这次暴雪的触发机制. 此次暴雪天气属于强冷空气类蒙古低槽(涡)型,发生在高湿区和水汽通量辐合区内,地面气旋和华北脊对暴雪的产生和落区起到决定性作用. 暴雪天气从降雪前期到结束,整层湿层较深厚,低空急流的建立为暴雪提供了很好的不稳定能量和水汽辐合条件,锡林郭勒盟地区有高空辐散低空辐合强烈的上升运动,为此次暴雪提供了非常有利的动力条件. 乌拉尔山高压脊东移,使强冷空气沿脊前西北气流南下,地面气旋不断发展,而南方暖湿气流强盛,迫使气旋东移;华北脊的阻挡作用使得气旋缓慢移动,影响系统滞留于锡林郭勒盟地区,产生长时间的降雪天气.     

Sensitivity of the tropical nonlinear stationary Kelvin and Rossby waves to the vertical structure of heating

Idealized experiments using linear (LM) and nonlinear (NM) multilevel global spectral models have been carried out to investigate and understand the impact of nonlinearities on the stationary wave response in the tropical atmosphere and its sensitivity to the vertical profile of heating. It is found that nonlinearities exert a dominant influence on the low-latitude stationary Kelvin and Rossby waves particularly in the vicinity of the forcing region. Our study shows that nonlinear effects on the upper tropospheric response produce prominent eastward displacement of the anticyclonic vorticity and horizontal shifts of the maximum equilibrium divergence relative to the prescribed heating. These changes due to nonlinear terms are found to be quite sensitive to the vertical structure of diabatic heating. The strongest nonlinear effects are found to occur when the vertical level under consideration is strongly forced from below. Detailed vorticity budget calculations indicate that stronger nonlinear contributions from stretching and horizontal advection of relative vorticity favour the generation of upper tropospheric anticyclonic circulation and its eastward displacement. Larger vertical advection and twisting terms appear to oppose the generation of upper tropospheric anticyclonic vorticity. It is found that the nonlinear terms which affect the vorticity generation in the upper levels are crucially controlled by the vertical profile of heating. The mid-tropospheric response due to deep convective heating in the NM is characterized by anomalous equatorial westerlies in the low-latitude Rossby regime and exhibits prominent ageostrophic motions. Such nonlinear effects appear probably because of a vertical shift of the low level circulation anomalies in the NM. In the case of shallow convective heating the occurrence of anomalous zonal flows and ageostrophic motions in the low latitude regions of the NM takes place near the level of the maximum heating. Our study shows that large heating amplitudes and small vertical gradient of heating at a given vertical level together favour generation of anomalous zonal flows and ageostrophic motions in the near equatorial regions. These anomalous basic flows in the low-latitudes have implications on the propagation of transients from the tropics to midlatitudes. Non-linear effects on the lower tropospheric stationary waves are prominently seen in the case of strong low level heating which produces a large strengthening of the lower tropospheric cyclonic anomalies that exhibit distinct eastward shifts in the NM relative to the LM.     

规则波和不规则波条件下射流实验对比

利用三维声学多普勒流速仪分别对规则波和不规则波条件下垂向圆管射流的流场进行了测量。在规则波条件下,靠近自由表面的射流垂向速度横剖面出现了较为明显的"双峰"现象,相较而言不规则波条件下射流垂向速度横剖面保持更好的高斯分布,"双峰"现象更不明显。在波能密度和波能通量一致的比选原则下,射流在规则波条件下的轴线速度衰减在初始段较不规则波条件要快一些,这与上述 "双峰"现象存在一定的关系。     

长江三角洲区域性暴雨的统计诊断分析

利用1954年～1983年5月～8月气象资料,统计了影响长江三角洲地区的区域性暴雨类型。分析了1962年14号强台风的路径、暴雨落区以及产生暴雨的气象条件。诊断结果表明,有利大气环流形势、台风倒槽辐合线、低空东南急流、上升运动和强大的水汽通量与通量辐合是产生"6214"台风大暴雨的重要条件。     

Simulation Study on the Impact of Taihang Mountain Slopes on Downhill Front Cyclone Rainstorm

The statistical and diagnostic analysis of precipitation in Hebei Province in the past six years shows that the mid-south of the North China Plain on the east side of the Taihang Mountains is an area of frequent rainstorm disasters in summer. The rain belt is mostly distributed along the Taihang Mountains, and the rainfall is often over 700mm. Focus was on the summer downhill frontal Yellow River cyclone, which accounted for 20% of the 73 storm days in the statistical samples. The analysis of the typical frontal cyclone heavy rain in 2016 shows that the meridional distribution of the Taihang Mountains cooperates with the climbing mountain jet in the north of the cyclone and the southward flow in the west of the cyclone, leading to the formation of a deep narrow cold temperature trough along the mountain orientation. It enhances the temperature gradient in the frontal cyclone, enhances the baroclinicity of the cyclone and the intensity of the rotating wind, resulting in augmentation of the cyclone and slowing of the eastward movement. Through the cooperation of the entanglement of the cyclone jet and the mountain block, a deep and abundant water vapor environment is formed, and the moving westward of water vapor flux and the low-level water vapor main body are hindered; The high-energy tongue convection instability on the eastern side of the mountain range is formed, a strong uplift with abundant water vapor masses is triggered, and three critical areas of vertical motion occurred, which restricts the rainstorm locations. Numerical experiments on the mechanism of the influence of the slope of the Taihang Mountains on heavy rain show that the downhill rainstorm area is parallel to the mountain range, and the meridional mountain range can cause a greater range of heavy precipitation. It is also easy to cause double frontal precipitation locally by a same cyclonic warm front and cold front, resulting in a long duration of heavy rain. The slope of the mountain is proportional to the intensity of the mountain block and forms the wet convection instability with the dry at lower and wet at upper overlapping on a thermal instability of the front zone with cold at lower and warm at upper, such as the total instability is stronger. The slope of the mountain is proportional to the increase and maintenance time of the cyclone decompression during downhill. It is inversely proportional to the decline to the North China Plain, which affects the path and speed of the cyclone eastward movement.     

Growth of cyclone Viyaru and Phailin – a comparative study

The tropical cyclone Viyaru maintained a unique quasi-uniform intensity during its life span. Despite being in contact with sea surface for >120 hr travelling about 2150 km, the cyclonic storm (CS) intensity, once attained, did not intensify further, hitherto not exhibited by any other system over the Bay of Bengal. On the contrary, the cyclone Phailin over the Bay of Bengal intensified into very severe cyclonic storm (VSCS) within about 48 hr from its formation as depression. The system also experienced rapid intensification phase (intensity increased by 30 kts or more during subsequent 24 hours) during its life time and maximum intensity reached up to 115 kts. In this paper, a comparative study is carried out to explore the evolution of the various thermodynamical parameters and possible reasons for such converse features of the two cyclones. Analysis of thermodynamical parameters shows that the development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric potential vorticity (PV) was low and quasi-static during the lifecycle of the cyclone Viyaru. For the cyclone Phailin, there was continuous development of the lower tropospheric and upper tropospheric PV, which attained a very high value during its lifecycle. Also there was poor and fluctuating diabatic heating in the middle and upper troposphere and cooling in the lower troposphere for Viyaru. On the contrary, the diabatic heating was positive from lower to upper troposphere with continuous development and increase up to 6^°C in the upper troposphere. The analyses of cross sections of diabatic heating, PV, and the 1000–500 hPa geopotential metre (gpm) thickness contours indicate that the cyclone Viyaru was vertically tilted (westward) and lacked axisymmetry in its structure and converse features (axisymmetric and vertical) that occurred for the cyclone Phailin. In addition, there was a penetration of dry air in the middle troposphere of Viyaru, whereas high moisture existed in the middle troposphere of Phailin. The vertical wind shear (5–10 ms^?1) near the core of the storm region between 850 and 200 hPa was favourable for both the systems but was higher in the northern region of the cyclone Viyaru. The divergent development of these thermodynamic features conspired to produce converse characteristic of the two cyclones.     

波流环境中垂向圆管射流三维运动和稀释过程模拟

采用大涡数值模拟方法建立了波流环境中垂向圆管射流三维物质输运数学模型,在此基础上分析了波流共同作用下射流运动和稀释过程,并探讨了波浪对射流三维时均浓度特征的影响。数模结果与实测数据的对比表明,该模型能够正确复演波流环境中射流速度和浓度沿水深分布的规律。引入了射流的三维浓度特征指标,即断面最小稀释度及其垂向位置和断面可视范围面积,发现随着波高或波周期的增大,波流环境中射流的断面可视范围面积逐渐增加,这说明波浪对射流的稀释起到一定的促进作用。     

超强台风Saomai(0608)加强成因分析及 海温影响的数值试验研究*

以严重影响我国的2006年8号超强台风Saomai为研究对象,首先从大尺度环流特征和物理量场对其登陆前强度不断加强成因作诊断分析,指出台风加强与副高的加强和南落、低空持续加强的水汽输送、高空流出气流的强辐散、台风移向垂直切变小值区和暖洋面密切相关。然后,利用中尺度数值模式MM5分析了海温高低对台风强度变化的影响,试验结果表明台风强度对海温十分敏感,海温改变可以引起台风强度的迅速变化,海温降低2℃将使台风最终减弱19hPa。边界层通量的分析表明,海温变化对台风强度的影响中潜热通量的作用是主要的,而感热输送的作用较小。就海温变化是否引起诸多台风强度影响因子分析发现,高海温使台风区域低空气旋式环流和高层辐散流出加强,导致低空更多的水汽向该区辐合,暖海面上空潮湿空气的辐合上升释放大量的凝结潜热为台风的发展加强提供了更多的水汽和能量。对比试验还表明,正位涡向下输送预示着台风将快速加强。另外,本次试验中海温变化对台风移动路径影响不明显, 因而对环境风的垂直切变影响较小。     

横流环境下振荡射流初始稀释规律

横流环境下振荡射流的运动和稀释特性研究对于提高排放工程稀释能力非常重要。利用三维大涡数学模型研究了横流环境下振荡射流的初始稀释规律, 探讨了各参数对射流稀释效果的影响; 通过引入射流特征速度与特征长度并进行量纲分析, 得到了横流环境下振荡射流的断面最小稀释度和可视范围面积经验公式, 并将其与波流环境下非振荡射流的稀释规律进行对比。研究表明: 横流环境下振荡射流下游断面浓度极大值出现在反向对称漩涡(CVP)结构位置或"污染物云团"位置; 振幅-射流速度比越大, 最小稀释度越大, 断面可视范围面积越大; 随着斯特劳哈尔数的减小, 断面可视范围面积增加, 最小稀释度变化不明显; 横流环境下振荡射流和波流环境下非振荡射流的初始稀释经验公式结构一致, 射流振荡性产生的初始稀释促进作用与波浪效果类似。     

Stability of a stationary Rossby wave embedded in barotropic monsoon zonal flow

Barotropic stability of a stationary Rossby wave of wavelength 30° longitude superposed on the uniform monsoon zonal flow has been examined. The wave is unstable to perturbations and the growth rate depends on the meridional scale. These perturbations grow by drawing on the kinetic energy of the stationary Rossby wave.     

南海中尺度波动现象研究进展

Kelvin波和Rossby波是经常出现于海洋中的边界波;南海的复杂岸线、陡变地形和热盐场时空结构的不均匀性具有形成强迫Kelvin波和地形Rossby波的条件。现有研究表明,南海大部分中尺度涡形成于东部一些较大岛屿附近;这些中尺度涡一旦形成后,就在β效应作用下向西移动并最终耗散于西边界,且其波动一般以Rossby波的形式向西传播。因此,南海环流的多涡结构与中尺度波动之间存在着一定的联系。在南海北部,中尺度涡主要由黑潮入侵和风应力旋度所诱生,而在南海南部而以风应力旋度为主要成因。提出了利用线性波动动力学模式来研究南海南部中尺度波动、分析风应力强迫所产生的中尺度波动特征和规律,并据此建立相应的数值模式来揭示该海区环流的动力学和热动力学机制的思路,以便了解该海区流场季节性变化与中尺度波动之间的内在关系。     

A Comparative Research on Climatic Characteristics of Jianghuai Cyclones in Rainfall Season between Warming and Cooling Stages

By EOF, Power spectrum and nonlinear mapping methods, the temperature time series of May to July in Jianghuai river basins from 1948-2014 (67 years) were objectively divided into several climate stages. The time series were divided into three climate stages with similar lengths: the stage with its air temperature trend going downwards stage (1948-1970); the stage with its air temperature trend going upwards (1971-1994) and the stage with its air temperature trend going gentle upwards (1995-2014). Their climate characteristics can be quantified by a special climate index. Then, the statistic characteristics of Jianghuai cyclones in the three climate stages were compared with the cooling or warming trends. The results showed that characteristic evolutions of the frequency of yearly average of Jianhuai cyclones, the cyclones with their life cycles in the area longer than 48h, the cyclones with three types of thickness, shallow and bottom shapes classified according to the cyclone height, the cyclones with three kinds of zonal, meridional, and circular trajectory, responded to the temperature changing trends in the three climate stages. The cooling trends of the stage temperature restrained the activity of Jianghuai cyclones, and the warming trends of the stage temperature promoted the cyclone’s development, maintaining, activity, and also led cyclone moving towards to north further. The composite analysis of cyclone structures showed that the evolution characteristics in the center intensity, temperature grads, the maxima velocity of jet of the cyclones, and the intensity, length and position of the vapor flux passage of the Jianghuai cyclones, also the intensity, thickness, the positions of the warm and cold air masses within the cyclones, all responded to the trend change of stage temperature including cooling, warming and gentle warming. The results show clearly that temperature cooling reduces the intensity of cyclone structures and restrains the activity of cyclones in the temperatures trend down stage. The temperature warming enhances the stable development and strengthening of cyclone structure,and maintains the activity of cyclones in the temperature warming stages.     

Spectral analysis of monsoonal global energy and enstrophy and their nonlinear exchanges in the zonal wavenumber domain

Vertical distributions of various components of the tropospheric global rotational kinetic energy, enstrophy and available potential energy during July 1979, and the contributions to these from different zonal wave categories were studied. Representative levels in the lower and upper troposphere for the stationary and transient energetics were identified on the basis of different components of energy and enstrophy. The eddy energy and enstrophy contained in different zonal scale components in the lower and upper troposphere were studied to find out the preferred scales for stationary and transient monsoonal motion in the two atmospheric layers. The role of different zonal wave categories in the nonlinear exchanges of energy and enstrophy arising due to stationary-stationary, transient-transient, stationary-transient and observed flow interactions was examined. Stationary and transient global spectra of the aforesaid dynamical variables in terms of the zonal wavenumber(m) with triangular truncation atm = 42 were utilized for this purpose. It was found from the global average kinetic energy in lower and upper troposphere that the global stationary and transient motions were comparable in the lower troposphere while in the upper troposphere stationary motion dominated over the transient motion. The computed zonal and eddy energy confirmed that the stationary motion was predominantly zonal while the transient motion was dominated by eddies. From the time mean nonlinear interaction of kinetic energy (enstrophy) of observed flow it was seen that the long and short waves as well as the zonal flow gained kinetic energy (enstrophy) from medium waves due to nonlinear interactions. The transfer of available potential energy due to nonlinear interaction was down the scale except for short waves in the upper troposphere. The stationary-transient interaction was found to be an important element of the spatial-temporal varying atmospheric flow.     

考虑极端天气时港珠澳大桥人工岛设计波浪要素——II.设计波要素校核方法

近年来珠江口海域航道治理、桥梁工程、港口建设等大型水上工程建设项目越来越多,水工建筑物安全的重要性和对台风浪灾害破坏的敏感性是大型工程重点关注的要素之一,采用台风浪数学模型分析计算极端天气条件对港珠澳大桥岛桥结合部人工岛设计波浪要素的影响。分析统计1949—2014年影响广东省沿海地区的登陆台风资料,采用随机模型分析珠江口地区300年一遇的台风气压降和登陆最大风速参数;建立珠江口水域的台风浪数学模型;选取不利台风登陆路径,采用300年一遇台风参数组合计算极端天气条件下珠江口内东西人工岛的设计波浪要素,对原设计波要素进行复核。可为其他海洋工程项目设计提供新的思路和研究方法。     

生态系统碳通量估算中耦合涡度协方差与遥感技术研究进展

陆地生态系统CO^₂和水热通量的长期观测研究一直是国际上关注的热点问题。截止目前,利用微气象学原理的涡度协方差技术是唯一能直接测定生物圈与大气间物质与能量通量的标准方法,成为国际通量观测网络的主要技术。但是涡度协方差技术的测定仍然是一种小尺度观测方法,其观测结果难于直接外推到更大尺度。同时,缺乏区域、跨尺度生态系统及其时空动态观测数据一直是限制碳循环研究的主要障碍,而遥感技术的发展可望在不远的将来使大尺度、高分辨生态系统变化的长期定量观测成为可能。这些问题在当今集中体现在如何建立通量—遥感的跨尺度观测体系,并有效地将有限的通量站点测量数据与大尺度遥感资料以及生态模型有机地结合。总结过去耦合涡度协方差技术与遥感技术的工作,主要在以下3个层面展开：①涡度协方差技术与遥感技术对碳通量估算的相互验证;②涡度协方差技术为遥感反演提供地面参数;③遥感观测解译辅助分析通量贡献区（footprint）。集中在这3个方面进行探讨,通过总结各方面的研究特点与进展,可望为未来在这个领域开展工作理顺思路。     

2017年6月湖南致洪暴雨的天气分析

利用实况观测资料和欧洲中长期天气预报中心再分析资料,对2017年6月底湖南一次致洪暴雨过程进行诊断分析。结果表明:高空冷涡和副高的稳定维持为暴雨发生提供了有利的大尺度环流条件,中低层低涡切变线和地面锢囚锋是此次暴雨的主要影响系统。2支高空急流增强和靠近诱发了低空急流爆发,高低空急流耦合形势的增强促进了暴雨的持续和加强。低空急流为暴雨发生提供了充沛的水汽和不稳定能量,暴雨区表现为显著的对流不稳定,并且在假相当位温垂直梯度增加的阶段对应暴雨强度亦增大。水汽通量以及辐合大值区对暴雨落区预报具有一定的指示意义。     

Unusual circulation pattern during Indian summer monsoon failure in July 2002 and June 2009

The circulation patterns over the Indian Ocean and the surrounding continents have been studied during June 2009 and July 2002 to explain the failure of Indian summer monsoon (ISM) rainfall. This study presents evidences that the failure of the ISM during these 2?months was probably due to the development of cyclonic circulation anomaly over the Western Asia and anticyclonic circulation anomalies downstream of Eastern Asia. These circulation anomalies were associated with the equatorward advection of cold air up to 10°N. This may be due to the equatorward intrusion of midlatitude Rossby waves. We hypothesize that the intrusion of midlatitude Rossby wave is responsible for breaking the east?Cwest circulation cell over the Indian region into two cells and weakening it. The weak east?Cwest cell reduces the strength of the easterly wind field usually present over the monsoonal region, thus reducing the cross-equatorial moisture transport into the Indian subcontinent and decreasing monsoon rainfall.     

Upper layer structure and variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current in the Drake Passage

The spatiotemporal variability of the Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC) structure in the upper 100–800 m layer is analyzed at two sections in the Drake Passage. The existence of the Subantarctic and Polar Current superjets, formed due to the confluence of a few jets together, is confirmed. Peak eddy activity at the periphery of all the ACC jets is revealed, which demonstates intensive meridional eddy exchange of properties across the Passage. The ACC jets are strongly coherent in the vertical direction. The ACC upper layer transport intensifies over bottom relief rises because of jet acceleration during their crossing.     

Cliff retreat and sea bed morphology under monochromatic wave forcing: Experimental study

Wave flume experiments have been performed to investigate a sandy cliff recession under monochromatic wave forcing. We varied the wave climate through the wave energy flux F and the surf similarity parameter ξ. The various processes of the cliff erosion cycle are depicted. The sea bed evolution mostly depends on the surf similarity parameter ξ. Steep planar (ξ > 0.7), gentle planar (0.5 < ξ < 0.7) and bared (ξ < 0.5) profiles are observed. We observed different bar dynamics, including steady and unsteady self-sustained oscillating states. Then we analyze the role of the eroded material on the cliff recession rate. We show that the cliff recession rate increases with the wave energy flux. Moreover, for a given wave energy flux, it is larger for a gentle planar profile than for a bared profile. However it is similar for both a bared profile and a steep planar profile. The cliff recession rate is not a monotonic function of the cliff height as the type of bottom profile influences the wave energy at the cliff.