Comparison of the Salinity Structure of the Chesapeake Bay,the Delaware Bay and Long Island Sound Using a Linearly Tapered Advection-Dispersion Model

Long records of monthly salinity observations along the axis of Chesapeake Bay, Delaware Bay, and Long Island Sound are used to test a simple advection–dispersion model of the salt distribution in linearly tapered estuaries developed in a previous paper. We subdivide each estuary into three to five segments, each with linear taper allowing a distributed input of fresh water, and evaluate the dispersion in each segment. While Delaware Bay has weak dispersion and a classical sigmoidal salinity structure, Long Island Sound and Chesapeake Bay are more dispersive and have relatively small gradients in the central stretches. Long Island Sound is distinguished by having a net volume and salt flux out of its low-salinity end resulting in a smaller range of salinity and increasing axial gradients at its head rather than the usual asymptotic approach to zero salinity. Estimates of residence times based on model transport coefficients show that Long Island Sound has the most rapid response to fresh-water flux variations. It also has the largest amplitude cycle in river discharge fluctuation. In combination, these cause the large seasonal variation in the salinity structure relative to interannual variability in Long Island Sound as compared with Chesapeake Bay and Delaware Bay.     

Estimation of net physical transport and hydraulic residence times for a coastal plain estuary using box models

A box model based on salinity distributions and freshwater inflow measurements was developed and used to estimate net non-tidal physical circulation and hydraulic residence times for Patuxent River estuary, Maryland, a tributary estuary of Chesapeake Bay. The box model relaxes the usual assumption that salinity is at steady-state, an important improvement over previous box model studies, yet it remains simple enough to have broad appeal. Average monthly 2-dimensional net non-tidal circulation and residence times for 1986–1995 are estimated and related to river flow and salt water inflow as estimated by the box model. An important result is that advective exchange at the estuary mouth was not correlated with Patuxent River flow, most likely due to effects of offshore salinity changes in Chesapeake Bay. The median residence time for freshwater entering at the head of the estuary was 68 d and decreased hyperbolically with increasing river flow to 30 d during high flow. Estimates of residence times for down-estuary points of origin showed that, from the head of the estuary to its mouth, control of flushing changed from primarily river flow to other factors regulating the intensity of gravitational circulation.     

Population Structure of Adult Blue Crabs, <Emphasis Type="Italic">Callinectes sapidus</Emphasis>, in Relation to Physical Characteristics in Barnegat Bay,New Jersey

Blue crabs (Callinectes sapidus) are an important species in coastal or lagoonal estuaries where adult population characteristics may differ as compared to drowned-river estuaries. Barnegat Bay, in southern New Jersey, is composed of two large embayments: one without and one with a salinity gradient. We tested the influence of physical characteristics on the abundance, sex ratio, and size of adult blue crabs and examined variation in measures of reproductive potential (e.g., sperm stores) in both sexes in Barnegat Bay from June to September, 2008–2009. Population structure was distinct between the embayments due to sex-specific responses to salinity: male abundance was negatively correlated with salinity whereas adult females were more abundant in high salinity because of proximity to Barnegat Inlet. This produced high sex ratios in low salinity areas and low sex ratios in high salinity areas. Summer was a growing season for adult males while in late summer-early fall, juvenile males recruited to the adult size class. The spawning season lasted from May to August and ovigerous females were concentrated near the inlets. Information on female sperm stores and ovarian development identified two cohorts of adult females: females that will spawn in the current summer and females that will not spawn until the following summer. Thus, not all adult females near the spawning grounds were members of the current spawning stock. This suggests that annual estimates of spawning stock size which overlook the proximity of females to spawning are overestimating the current spawning stock in Barnegat Bay and other estuaries.     

Potential Salinity and Temperature Futures for the Chesapeake Bay Using a Statistical Downscaling Spatial Disaggregation Framework

Estuaries are productive and ecologically important ecosystems, incorporating environmental drivers from watersheds, rivers, and the coastal ocean. Climate change has potential to modify the physical properties of estuaries, with impacts on resident organisms. However, projections from general circulation models (GCMs) are generally too coarse to resolve important estuarine processes. Here, we statistically downscaled near-surface air temperature and precipitation projections to the scale of the Chesapeake Bay watershed and estuary. These variables were linked to Susquehanna River streamflow using a water balance model and finally to spatially resolved Chesapeake Bay surface temperature and salinity using statistical model trees. The low computational cost of this approach allowed rapid assessment of projected changes from four GCMs spanning a range of potential futures under a high CO₂ emission scenario, for four different downscaling methods. Choice of GCM contributed strongly to the spread in projections, but choice of downscaling method was also influential in the warmest models. Models projected a ~2–5.5 °C increase in surface water temperatures in the Chesapeake Bay by the end of the century. Projections of salinity were more uncertain and spatially complex. Models showing increases in winter-spring streamflow generated freshening in the Upper Bay and tributaries, while models with decreased streamflow produced salinity increases. Changes to the Chesapeake Bay environment have implications for fish and invertebrate habitats, as well as migration, spawning phenology, recruitment, and occurrence of pathogens. Our results underline a potentially expanded role of statistical downscaling to complement dynamical approaches in assessing climate change impacts in dynamically challenging estuaries.     

Identification of important primary producers in a Chesapeake Bay tidal creek system using stable isotopes of carbon and sulfur

The use of multiple stable isotopes in the study of trophic relationships in temperate estuaries has usually been limited to euhaline systems, in which phytoplankton, benthic microalgae, andSpartina alterniflora are major sources of organic matter for consumers. Within large estuaries such as Chesapeake Bay, however, many species of consumers are found in the upper mesohaline to oligohaline portions. These lower salinity wetlands have a greater abundance of macrophytes that use C3 photosynthesis to fix carbon, in addition toS. alterniflora, which fixes carbon via the C4 photosynthetic pathway. In a broad survey of the biota and sediments of a brackish tidal creek tributary to Chesapeake Bay, combined δ¹³C and δ³⁴S measurements disclosed a balanced contribution to secondary production from phytoplankton, C3 macrophytes,Spartina sp., and benthic microalgae. Surface sediment δ¹³C suggested that the organic matter from C3 plants was derived both from allochthonous sources (terrestrial runoff) and from autochthonous production (marsh macrophytes). Unlike most estuarine systems studied to date, which are dominated by algae (phytoplankton and benthic microalgae) and C4 macrophytes, C3 plants are of greater importance in the diets of consumers in this low-salinity creek system.     

ENSO impacts on salinity in Tampa Bay, Florida

Estuarine salinity distributions reflect a dynamic balance between the processes that control estuarine circulation. At seasonal and longer time scales, freshwater inputs into estuaries represent the primary control on salinity distribution and estuarine circulation. El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) conditions influence seasonal rainfall and stream discharge patterns in the Tampa Bay, Florida region. The resulting variability in freshwater input to Tampa Bay influences its seasonal salinity distribution. During El Niño events, ENSO sea surface temperature anomalies (SSTAs) are significantly and inversely correlated with salinity in the bay during winter and spring. These patterns reflect the elevated rainfall over the drainage basin and the resulting elevated stream discharge and runoff, which depress salinity levels. Spatially, the correlations are strongest at the head of the bay, especially in bay sections with long residence times. During La Niña conditions, significant inverse correlations between ENSO SSTAs and salinity occur during spring. Dry conditions and depressed stream discharge characterize La Niña winters and springs, and the higher salinity levels during La Niña springs reflect the lower freshwater input levels.     

Ferry-based monitoring of surface water quality in North Carolina estuaries

Several interrelated factors affect, water quality in the Albemarle-Pamlico Estuarine System (APES) including land use change in the upland and coastal watersheds, legislatively mandated basin-wide nutrient management plans, intense storms, and global and local changes in sea level. Despite its importance as an essential fish habitat, the APES has not been monitored as intensively or extensively for habitat impacts associated with decreased water quality as other estuaries have been, such as with the North Carolina tributary estuaries or Chesapeake Bay. To support the sustainable use of these estuaries, we are developing an automated water quality monitoring system aboard ferries that traverse the APES. This program, FerryMon, provides a unique, long-term, and cost-effective monitoring system to evaluate status and trends in APES water quality. Intensive temporal and spatial data obtained from all ferry routes provide an environmental baseline and are used to assess the patterns and variability in surface water hydrography, dissolved constituents, and particulate matter. The data are useful to calibrate estimates of ocean color and sea surface temperature from aircraft and satellite sensors. We are creating a searchable geographic database that is intended for scientists, managers, and the general public. Using ferries as sampling platforms to monitor estuarine water quality is a tractable approach and FerryMon represents a model for use in other large bodies of water traversed by ferries.     

Discovery of the “Phantom” dinoflagellate in Chesapeake Bay

Since its discovery in natural estuarine habitat of North Carolina in 1991, the widespread impact of the toxic dinoflagellate, Pfiesteria piscicida (gen. et sp. nov.), popularly called the “phantom” dinoflagellate, on North Carolina fish stocks has been established, yet little is known about its influence outside of North Carolina estuaries. Here, we document the presence of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay. A fish kill was observed after inoculating an aquarium containing mummichogs with sediment samples from Jenkins Creek, a brackish creek (salinity 11‰) of the Chesapeake Bay system. P. piscicida was the cause of the kill, as supported by morphological, physiological, and histological evidence. The appearance and behavior of the algae and symptoms associated with fish mortality were consistent with those previously observed in P. piscicida-associated aquaria fish kills in North Carolina. The discovery of P. piscicida in Chesapeake Bay supports the speculation that these toxic dinoflagellates have a dramatic and far-reaching impact on fish stocks in shallow, eutrophic estuaries along the eastern United States.     

Factors influencing spatial and annual variability in eelgrass (Zostera marina L.) meadows in Willapa Bay, Washington, and Coos Bay, Oregon, estuaries

Environmental factors that influence annual variability and spatial differences (within and between estuaries) in eelgrass meadows (Zostera marine L.) were examined within Willapa Bay, Washington, and Coos Bay, Oregon, over a period of 4 years (1998–2001). A suite of eelgrass metrics were recorded annually at field sites that spanned the estuarine gradient from the marine-dominated to mesohaline region of each estuary. Plant density (shoots m^?2) of eelgrass was positively correlated with summer estuarine salinity and inversely correlated with water temperature gradients in the estuaries. Eelgrass density, biomass, and the incidence of flowering plants all increased substantially in Willapa Bay, and less so in Coos Bay, over the duration of the study. Warmer winters and cooler summers associated with the transition from El Niño to La Niña ocean conditions during the study period corresponded with this increase in eelgrass abundance and flowering. Large-scale changes in climate and nearshore ocean conditions may exert a strong regional influence on eelgrass abundance that can vary annually by as much as 700% in Willapa Bay. Lower levels of annual variability observed in Coos Bay may be due to the stronger and more direct influence of the nearshore Pacific Ocean on the Coos Bay study sites. The results suggest profound effects of climate variation on the abundance and flowering of eelgrass in Pacific Northwest coastal estuaries.     

The Green Bay ecosystem and assessment of climate change impacts

Climate change will have major impacts in the Great Lakes region of North America. Particularly vulnerable are shallow freshwater estuaries, such as Lake Michigan’s Green Bay, located in the north-eastern part of the State of Wisconsin. Green Bay and the Lower Fox River, its major tributary, were considered to be severely polluted as early as 1925. As a result of large expenditures of money and a major research effort that has been conducted over the past 40 years or more, some progress has been made toward the restoration of ecosystem integrity. However, work remains, and within this context, potential climate change impacts pose additional challenges. We discuss in this paper a methodology that can be used to assess climate change impacts on ecosystems, and describe an application to the Green Bay ecosystem. The methodology employs numerical methods to evaluate the inputs from scientific, policy, and management experts who are knowledgeable about the ecosystem under study. The Green Bay ecosystem application reveals that runoff from agriculture and urban sources, already a major ecosystem stressor, will be exacerbated in the future as a result of climate change impacts.     

Nekton community change along estuarine salinity gradients: Can salinity zones be defined?

Organisms tend to inhabit predictable portions of estuaries along salinity gradients between the ocean inlets (salinity > 35 psu) and the freshwater tributaries (salinity = 0). Previous studies have suggested that the continuous change in biological community structure along this gradient is relatively rapid at certain salinities. This is the basis for estuarine salinity zonation schemes similar to the classic Venice System (i.e., 0–0.5, 0.5–5, 5–18, 18–30, 30–40, > 40). An extensive database (n > 16,000 samples) of frequency of occurrence of nekton was used to assess evidence for estuarine salinity zones in two southwest Florida estuaries: Tampa Bay and Charlotte Harbor. Rapid change in nekton community structure occurred at each end of the estuarine salinity gradient, with comparatively slow (but steady) change in between. There was little strong evidence for estuarine salinity zones at anything other than low salinities (0.1–1). As previously suggested by other authors, estuaries may be regarded as ecoclines, because they form areas of relatively slow but progressive ecological change. The ends of the estuarine salinity gradient appear to be ecotones (areas of rapid change) at the interfaces with adjacent freshwater and marine habitats. This study highlights the rapid change that occurs in nekton community structure at low salinities, which is of relevance to those managing freshwater inflow to estuaries.     

Analytical solution for salt intrusion in multiple-freshwater-source estuaries: application to Humen Estuary

Salt intrusion has some negative impact on the estuarine eco-environment as well as the water resource potential. The paper proposes an analytical model to describe salt intrusion in the estuaries with multiple freshwater sources. The impact of river discharge on the salinity distribution changes along the multiple-fresh-source estuaries, which is different from estuaries with single source of freshwater. Our analytical model is derived from the advection–dispersion equation for salinity while taking into account the hydrodynamic variation along the estuary. In this paper, we take the Humen Estuary, a strongly tide-dominated estuary with two major source of freshwater, as an example to illustrate the model. By testing against eight surveys over a complete spring-neap tidal cycle, the analytical model’s capacity to describe salt intrusion in the Humen Estuary is calibrated and validated. The results show that the analytical method can be used to compute the salinity distribution in the multiple-freshwater-source estuaries. In comparison with the field data in the Humen Estuary, the calculated results indicate that the salt intrusion process exhibits remarkable segmentation in the multiple-freshwater-source estuary, although the estuary’s inherent characteristic remains the same throughout the estuary. Moreover, by analyzing the multi-segmental features of the Humen Estuary, an efficient and effective model to predict the salt intrusion length of the Humen Estuary is presented and satisfactory results are obtained to illustrate its practical application.     

Impact of the Spring 2000 phytoplankton bloom in Chesapeake Bay on optical properties and light penetration in the Rhode River,Maryland

Accelerating eutrophication manifest as increasing frequency and magnitude of phytoplankton blooms threatens living resources in many estuaries. Effects of large blooms can be difficult to document because blooms are often unexpected and do not always coincide with scheduled sampling programs. Here we use continuously monitored salinity distributions and optical properties to study the spring bloom of the red tide dinoflagellate,Prorocentrumminimum, in the Rhode River, Maryland, a tributary embayment of upper Chesapeake Bay. Salinity distributions, together with weekly cruise measurements of nutrient concentrations, indicate that the bloom commenced with an influx of nitrate at the mouth due to the arrival of a freshet from the Susquehanna River. Arrival of this freshet at the mouth set up an unstable, inverse salinity gradient within the Rhode River. Continuously monitored absorption and scattering spectra indicated that increases in chlorophyll within the Rhode River initially were due to the influx of chlorophyll that had developed in the main stem of the bay. After the influx, much higher concentrations and steep spatial gradients developed within the Rhode River, subsequent to reduced mixing that accompanied re-establishment of a normal estuarine salinity gradient. We used the monitored absorption and scattering coefficients to determine the effect of the bloom on light attenuation coefficients in the Rhode River. The bloom resulted in a nearly three-fold increase in attenuation coefficient. Attenuation was dominated by chlorophyll in the early stages of the bloom and by detritus after the termination of the bloom. Although the bloom lasted only 20 d, the elevated attenuation coefficients due to the bloom exceeded values that would permit growth of submersed vascular plants for a period of about 45 d.     

Expression of the Estuarine species minimum in littoral fish assemblages of the Lower Chesapeake Bay Tributaries

Species richness declines to a minimum (artenminimum) in the oligohaline reach of estuaries and other large bodies of brackish water. To date, observations of this feature in temperate estuaries have been largely restricted to benthic macroinvertebrates. Five years of seine data collected during the summers of 1990–1995 in the major tidal tributaries to the lower Chesapeake Bay were examined to see if this feature arose in estuarine fish assemblages. Estimates of numerical species richness (alpha diversity) and rates of species turnover between sites (beta diversity) were generated via rarefaction and detrended correspondence analysis. Two spatial attributes of the distribution of littoral fish species along salinity gradients in the tributaries of the lower Chesapeake Bay were revealed: (1) a species richness depression in salinities of 8–10% and (2) a peak in the rate of species turnover associated with the tidal freshwater interface (salinities of 0–2%). Expression of the minimum is influenced by the physical length of the salinity gradient and the interaction between a species’ salinity preferences and tendency to make long excursions from favorable habitats.     

Application of a Weighted-Averaging Method for Determining Paleosalinity: A Tool for Restoration of South Florida’s Estuaries

A molluscan analogue dataset is presented in conjunction with a weighted-averaging technique as a tool for estimating past salinity patterns in south Florida’s estuaries and developing targets for restoration based on these reconstructions. The method, here referred to as cumulative weighted percent (CWP), was tested using modern surficial samples collected in Florida Bay from sites located near fixed water monitoring stations that record salinity. The results were calibrated using species weighting factors derived from examining species occurrence patterns. A comparison of the resulting calibrated species-weighted CWP (SW-CWP) to the observed salinity at the water monitoring stations averaged over a 3-year time period indicates, on average, the SW-CWP comes within less than two salinity units of estimating the observed salinity. The SW-CWP reconstructions were conducted on a core from near the mouth of Taylor Slough to illustrate the application of the method.     

A framework for coupling shoals and shallow embayments with main channels in numerical modeling of coastal plain estuaries

A simple computational framework is developed to include shoals and shallow embayments (SSE) and their interaction with main channels in estuarine modeling. The scheme, treating SSE as temporary storage areas, accounts for the water and material exchanges between SSE and main channels as the tide rises and falls, and for the biogeochemical processes affecting nonconservative substances such as water-quality parameters in SSE. The scheme, because of its simple nature, can be easily incorporated into one-, two- or three-dimensional models of estuaries with substantial SSE. The concept and the model implementation of the scheme are explained using a vertical two-dimensional model of estuarine hydrodynamics and water quality. The model application to the tidal Rappahannock River, a western shore tributary of Chesapeake Bay, demonstrates the scheme is simple and physically reasonable, and the importance of SSE in estuarine modeling. The inclusion of SSE in a water-quality model not only provides a framework, for computing water-quality conditions therein but also accounts for the interaction between SSE and the main channel. It is shown that significant errors may result if the effects of SSE are not properly accounted for in modeling of an estuary with extensive SSE.     

A simple empirical optical model for simulating light attenuation variability in a partially mixed estuary

Representation of the subsurface light field is a crucial component of pelagic ecosystem and water quality models. Modeling the light field in estuaries is a particularly complicated problem due to the significant influence of high concentrations of dissolved and particulate matter that are derived from both terrestrial and estuarine sources. The goal of this study was to develop a relatively simple but effective way to model light attenuation variability in a turbuid estuary (Chesapeake Bay, United States) in a coupled physical-biological model. We adopted a simple, nonspectral empirical approach. Surface water quality data (salinity was used as a proxy of chromophoric dissolved organic matter [CDOM]) and light measurements from the Chesapeake Bay Program were used to determine the absorption coefficients in a linear attenuation model using regression methods. This model predicts K_c (specific attenuation due to phytoplankton/chlorophylla [chla]), K_t (specific attenuation due to total suspended solids), and K_s (a function of specific attenuation coefficients of CDOM in relation to salinity). The Bay-wide fitted relation between the light attenuation coefficient and water quality concentrations gives generally good estimates of total light attenuation, K_d. The direct inclusion of salinity in the relationship has one disadvantage: it can yield negative values for K_d at high salinities. We developed two separate models for two different salinity regimes. This approach, in addition to solving the negative K_d problem, also accounts for some changes in specific light absorption by chla, seston (nonphytoplankton particulate matter), and CDOM that apparently occur in different salinity regimes in Chesapeake Bay. The resulting model predicts the statistical characteristics (i.e., the mean and variance) of K_d quite accurately in most regions of Chesapeake Bay. We also discuss in this paper the feasibility and caveats of using K_d converted from Secchi depth in the empirical method.     

Tidal flat macrofaunal communities and their associated environments in estuaries of southern California and northern Baja California, Mexico

Several tidal flats in both Estero de Punta Banda and Bahia de San Quintín, Baja California, and one in Mission Bay, southern California, were sampled for macrofaunal properties (taxonomic composition, density, species richness, and functional groups for animals ≥0.3 mm) and associated environmental variables (sediment properties, salinity, plant belowground biomass, and cover ofZostera marina) in order to establish a benchmark data set for these areas. The grouping of macrofauna into higher taxonomic or functional groups for these comparisons reduced variability and revealed stronger relationships. Each estuary had a fairly distinct macrofaunal assemblage, with that of Estero de Punta Banda being different from Bahia de San Quintín and Mission Bay primarily due to dominance by a capitellid polychaete, lower proportions of surface deposit feeders, and higher proportions of fauna with a planktonic stage. The flats in Mission Bay and Bahia de San Quintín were dominated by peracarid crustaceans, oligochaetes and polychaetes and had higher proportions of direct developers and macrofauna with mobile adult stages than did Estero de Punta Banda. There was an overlap of the environmental characteristics among estuaries, with more variability of sediment and vegetation properties within than among estuaries. Within Bahia de San Quintín, there was an oceanic to back-bay distribution gradient of macrofauna that was similar to that found in estuaries in wetter climates, despite the lack of a salinity gradient in San Quintín. A decoupling of the benthos and the assumed anthropogenic stresses was observed with the degraded site, Mission Bay, being most similar to the relatively pristine Bahia de San Quintín. Selection of reference sites and sampling variables should be made cautiously because effects of disturbance factors on the benthos may be site-dependent, scale-dependent, or negligible.     

Trace element cycling in a subterranean estuary: Part 2. Geochemistry of the pore water

Submarine groundwater discharge (SGD) is an important source of dissolved elements to the ocean, yet little is known regarding the chemical reactions that control their flux from sandy coastal aquifers. The net flux of elements from SGD to the coastal ocean is dependent on biogeochemical reactions in the groundwater-seawater mixing zone, recently termed the “subterranean estuary.” This paper is the second in a two part series on the biogeochemistry of the Waquoit Bay coastal aquifer/subterranean estuary. The first paper addressed the biogeochemistry of Fe, Mn, P, Ba, U, and Th from the perspective of the sediment composition of cores Charette et al. [Charette, M.A., Sholkovitz, E.R., Hansell, C.M., 2005. Trace element cycling in a subterranean estuary: Part 1. Geochemistry of the permeable sediments. Geochim. Cosmochim. Acta, 69, 2095-2109]. This paper uses pore water data from the subterranean estuary, along with Bay surface water data, to establish a more detailed view into the estuarine chemistry and the chemical diagenesis of Fe, Mn, U, Ba and Sr in coastal aquifers. Nine high-resolution pore water (groundwater) profiles were collected from the head of the Bay during July 2002. There were non-conservative additions of both Ba and Sr in the salinity transition zone of the subterranean estuary. However, the extent of Sr release was significantly less than that of its alkaline earth neighbor Ba. Pore water Ba concentrations approached 3000 nM compared with 25-50 nM in the surface waters of the Bay; the pore water Sr-salinity distribution suggests a 26% elevation in the amount of Sr added to the subterranean estuary. The release of dissolved Ba to the mixing zone of surface estuaries is frequently attributed to an ion-exchange process whereby seawater cations react with Ba from river suspended clay mineral particles at low to intermediate salinity. Results presented here suggest that reductive dissolution of Mn oxides, in conjunction with changes in salinity, may also be an important process in maintaining high concentrations of Ba in the pore water of subterranean estuaries. In contrast, pore water U was significantly depleted in the subterranean estuary, a result of SGD-driven circulation of seawater through reducing permeable sediments. This finding is supported by surface water concentrations of U in the Bay, which were significantly depleted in U compared with adjacent coastal waters. Using a global estimate of SGD, we calculate U removal in subterranean estuaries at 20 × 10⁶ mol U y⁻¹, which is the same order of magnitude as the other major U sinks for the ocean. Our results suggest a need to revisit and reevaluate the oceanic budgets for elements that are likely influenced by SGD-associated processes.     

A Simulation of Historic Hydrology and Salinity in Everglades National Park: Coupling Paleoecologic Assemblage Data with Regression Models

Restoration of Florida’s Everglades requires scientifically supportable hydrologic targets. This study establishes a restoration baseline by developing a method to simulate hydrologic and salinity conditions prior to anthropogenic changes. The method couples paleoecologic data on long-term historic ecosystem conditions with statistical models derived from observed meteorologic and hydrologic data that provide seasonal and annual variation. Results indicate that pre-drainage freshwater levels and hydroperiods in major sloughs of the Everglades were about 0.15 m higher and two to four times greater, respectively, on average compared to today’s values. Pre-drainage freshwater delivered to the wetlands and estuaries is estimated to be 2.5 to four times greater than the modern-day flow, and the largest deficit is during the dry season. In Florida Bay, salinity has increased between 5.3 and 20.1 with the largest differences in the areas near freshwater outflow points. These results suggest that additional freshwater flows to the Everglades are needed for restoration of the freshwater marshes of the Everglades and estuarine environment of Florida Bay, particularly near the end of the dry season.