Regional Exploration Targeting Model for Gangdese Porphyry Copper Deposits

An exploration targeting model for Gangdese porphyry copper deposit in Tibet, China, is constructed based on (i) the age of porphyry intrusions within Gangdese magmatic arc; (ii) the regional‐scale normal E–W, N–S and N–E striking faults; and (iii) comprehensive anomalously high concentrations of Cu‐Mo‐Au‐Ag‐Pb‐Zn. These targeting elements are derived from geological map and geochemical dataset, and are integrated by weights of evidence with the aid of geographic information system (GIS). The resulting prospectivity for porphyry copper deposits delineated by posterior probability demonstrates that the target areas extend along the Yaluzangbujiang River and contain the two large deposits, Qulong and Chongjiang, located in the eastern and central part of the Gangdese belt, respectively. These results indicate that the proposed exploration targeting model is a potential tool to map regional‐scale mineral prospectivity. The target areas with high values of favorability, especially where high concentrations of Cu‐Mo‐Au‐Ag‐Pb‐Zn are present, are the potential areas for finding undiscovered porphyry copper deposits.     

Using fuzzy logic in a Geographic Information System environment to enhance conceptually based prospectivity analysis of Mississippi Valley‐type mineralisation

Geographic Information Systems (GIS) provide an efficient vehicle for the generation of mineral prospectivity maps, which are products of the integration of large geological, geophysical and geochemical datasets that typify modern global‐scale mineral exploration. Conventionally, two contrasting approaches have been adopted, an empirical approach where there are numerous deposits of the type being sought in the analysed mature terrain, or a conceptual approach where there are insufficient known deposits for a statistically valid analysis. There are also a variety of potential methodologies for treatment of the data and their integration into a final prospectivity map. The Lennard Shelf represents the major Mississippi Valley‐type (MVT) province in Australia; however, there are only 13 deposits or major prospects known, making an empirical approach to prospectivity mapping impractical. Instead, a conceptual approach was adopted, where critical features that control the location of MVT deposits on the Lennard Shelf, as defined by widely accepted genetic models, were translated into features related to fluid pathways, depositional traps and fluid outflow zones, which can be mapped in a GIS and categorised as either regional or restricted diagnostic, or permissive criteria. All criteria were derived either directly from geological and structural data, or indirectly from geophysical and geochemical datasets. A fuzzy‐logic approach was adopted for the prospectivity analysis, where each interpreted critical feature of the conceptual model was assigned a weighting between 0 and 1 based on its inferred relative importance and reliability. The fuzzy‐logic method is able to cope with incomplete data, a common problem in regional‐scale exploration datasets. The data were best combined using the gamma operator to produce a fuzzy‐logic map for the prospectivity of MVT deposits on the southeastern Lennard Shelf. Five categories of prospectivity were defined. Importantly, from an exploration viewpoint, the two lowest prospectivity categories occupy ～90% and the highest two categories only 1.6% of the analysed area, yet eight of the 13 known MVT deposits lie in the latter and none in the former: i.e. all lie within ～10% of the area, despite the fact that deposit locations were not used directly in the analysis. The propectivity map also defines potentially mineralised areas in the central southeastern Lennard Shelf and the southern part of the Oscar Ranges, where there are currently no known deposits. Overall, the analysis demonstrates the power of fuzzy‐logic prospectivity mapping on a semi‐regional to regional scale, and emphasises the value of geological data, particularly accurate geological maps, in exploration for hydrothermal mineral deposits that formed late in the evolution of the terrain under exploration.     

From Predictive Mapping of Mineral Prospectivity to Quantitative Estimation of Number of Undiscovered Prospects

This paper proposes that the spatial pattern of known prospects of the deposit‐type sought is the key to link predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity (PMMP) and quantitative mineral resource assessment (QMRA). This proposition is demonstrated by PMMP for hydrothermal Au‐Cu deposits (HACD) and by estimating the number of undiscovered prospects for HACD in Catanduanes Island (Philippines). The results of analyses of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD and their spatial associations with geological features are consistent with existing knowledge of geological controls on hydrothermal Au‐Cu mineralization in the island and elsewhere, and are used to define spatial recognition criteria of regional‐scale prospectivity for HACD. Integration of layers of evidence representing the spatial recognition criteria of prospectivity via application of data‐driven evidential belief functions results in a map of prospective areas occupying 20% of the island with fitting‐ and prediction‐rates of 76% and 70%, respectively. The predictive map of prospective areas and a proxy measure for degrees of exploration based on the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD were used in one‐level prediction of undiscovered mineral endowment, which yielded estimates of 79 to 112 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Application of radial‐density fractal analysis of the spatial pattern of known prospects of HACD results in an estimate of 113 undiscovered prospects of HACD. Thus, the results of the study support the proposition that PMMP can be a part of QMRA if the spatial pattern of discovered prospects of the deposit‐type sought is considered in both PMMP and QMRA.     

Regional prospectivity analysis for hydrothermal-remobilised nickel mineral systems in western Victoria,Australia

Fuzzy logic mineral prospectivity modelling was performed to identify camp-scale areas in western Victoria with an elevated potential for hydrothermal-remobilised nickel mineralisation. This prospectivity analysis was based on a conceptual mineral system model defined for a group of hydrothermal nickel deposits geologically similar to the Avebury deposit in Tasmania. The critical components of the conceptual model were translated into regional spatial predictor maps combined using a fuzzy inference system. Applying additional criteria of land use restrictions and depth of post-mineralisation cover, downgrading the exploration potential of the areas within national parks or with thick barren cover, allowed the identification of just a few potentially viable exploration targets, in the south of the Grampians-Stavely and Glenelg zones. Uncertainties of geological interpretations and parameters of the conceptual mineral system model were explicitly defined and propagated to the final prospectivity model by applying Monte Carlo simulations to the fuzzy inference system. Modelling uncertainty provides additional information which can assist in a further risk analysis for exploration decision making.     

Selection of coherent deposit-type locations and their application in data-driven mineral prospectivity mapping

Data-driven prospectivity mapping can be undermined by dissimilarity in multivariate spatial data signatures of deposit-type locations. Most cases of data-driven prospectivity mapping, however, make use of training sets of randomly selected deposit-type locations with the implicit assumption that they are coherent (i.e., with similar multivariate spatial data signatures). This study shows that the quality of data-driven prospectivity mapping can be improved by using a training set of coherent deposit-type locations. Analysis and selection of coherent deposit-type locations was performed via logistic regression, by using multiple sets of deposit occurrence favourability scores of univariate geoscience spatial data as independent variables and binary deposit occurrence scores as dependent variable. The set of coherent deposit-type locations and three sets of randomly selected deposit-type locations were each used in data-driven prospectivity mapping via application of evidential belief functions. The prospectivity map based on the training set of coherent deposit-type locations resulted in lower uncertainty, better goodness-of-fit to the training set, and better predictive capacity against a cross-validation set of economic deposits of the type sought. This study shows that explicit selection of training set of coherent deposit-type locations should be applied in data-driven prospectivity mapping.     

Artificial neural networks: A new method for mineral prospectivity mapping

A multilayer feed‐forward neural network, trained with a gradient descent, back‐propagation algorithm, is used to estimate the favourability for gold deposits using a raster GIS database for the Tenterfield 1:100 000 sheet area, New South Wales. The database consists of solid geology, regional faults, airborne magnetic and gamma‐ray survey data (U, Th, K and total count channels), and 63 deposit and occurrence locations. Input to the neural network consists of feature vectors formed by combining the values from co‐registered grid cells in each GIS thematic layer. The network was trained using binary target values to indicate the presence or absence of deposits. Although the neural network was trained as a binary classifier, output values for the trained network are in the range [0.1, 0.9] and are interpreted to indicate the degree of similarity of each input vector to a composite of all the deposit vectors used in training. These values are rescaled to produce a multiclass prospectivity map. To validate and assess the effectiveness of the neural‐network method, mineral‐prospectivity maps are also prepared using the empirical weights of evidence and the conceptual fuzzy‐logic methods. The neural‐network method produces a geologically plausible mineral‐prospectivity map similar, but superior, to the fuzzy logic and weights of evidence maps. The results of this study indicate that the use of neural networks for the integration of large multisource datasets used in regional mineral exploration, and for prediction of mineral prospectivity, offers several advantages over existing methods. These include the ability of neural networks to: (i) respond to critical combinations of parameters rather than increase the estimated prospectivity in response to each individual favourable parameter; (ii) combine datasets without the loss of information inherent in existing methods; and (iii) produce results that are relatively unaffected by redundant data, spurious data and data containing multiple populations. Statistical measures of map quality indicate that the neural‐network method performs as well as, or better than, existing methods while using approximately one‐third less data than the weights of evidence method.     

Data fusion and porphyry copper prospectivity models,southeastern Arizona

Mineral exploration programs commonly use a combination of geological, geophysical and remotely sensed data to detect sets of optimal conditions for potential ore deposits. Prospectivity mapping techniques can integrate and analyse these digital geological data sets to produce maps that identify where optimal conditions converge. Three prospectivity mapping techniques – weights of evidence, fuzzy logic and a combination of these two methods – were applied to a 32,000 km² study area within the southeastern Arizona porphyry Cu district and then assessed based on their ability to identify new and existing areas of high mineral prospectivity. Validity testing revealed that the fuzzy logic method using membership values based on an exploration model identified known Cu deposits considerably better than those that relied solely on weights of evidence, and slightly better than those that used a combination of weights of evidence and fuzzy logic. This led to the selection of the prospectivity map created using the fuzzy logic method with membership values based on an exploration model. Three case study areas were identified that comprise many critical geological and geophysical characteristics favourable to hosting porphyry Cu mineralisation, but not associated with known mining or exploration activity. Detailed analysis of each case study has been performed to promote these areas as potential targets and to demonstrate the ability of prospectivity modelling techniques as useful tools in mineral exploration programs.     

Exploration targeting for orogenic gold deposits in the Granites-Tanami Orogen: Mineral system analysis,targeting model and prospectivity analysis

A major challenge for mineral exploration geologists is the development of a transparent and reproducible approach to targeting exploration efforts, particularly at the regional to camp scales, in terranes under difficult cover where exploration and opportunity costs are high. In this study, a three-pronged approach is used for identifying the most prospective ground for orogenic gold deposits in the Paleoproterozoic Granite-Tanami Orogen (GTO) in Western Australia.A key input to the analyses is the recent development of a 4D model of the GTO architectural evolution that provides new insights on the spatio-temporal controls over orogenic gold occurrences in the area; in particular, on the role of pre-mineralization (pre-1795 Ma) D_GTOE–D_GTO1–D_GTO2 architecture in localization of gold deposits and the spatial distribution of rock types in 3D. This information is used to build up a model of orogenic gold minerals system in the area, which is then integrated into the three mutually independent but complementary mineral prospectivity maps namely, a concept-driven “manual” and “fuzzy” analysis; and a data-driven “automated” analysis.The manual analysis involved: (1) generation of a process-based gold mineral systems template to aid target selection; (2) manual delineation of targets; (3) manual estimation of the probability of occurrence of each critical mineralization process based on the available information; and (4) combining the above probabilities to derive the relative probability of occurrence of orogenic gold deposits in each of the targets. The knowledge-based Geological Information System (GIS) analysis attempts to replicate the expert knowledge used in the manual approach, but queried in a more systematic format to eliminate human heuristic bias. This involves representing the critical mineralization processes in the form of spatial predictor maps and systematically querying them through the use of a fuzzy logic model to integrate the predictor maps and to derive the western GTO orogenic gold prospectivity map. The data-driven ‘empirical’ GIS analysis uses no expert knowledge. Instead it employs statistical measures to evaluate the spatial associations between known deposits and predictor maps to establish weights for each predictor layer then combines these layers into a predictive map using a Weights of Evidence (WofE) approach.Application of a mineral systems approach in the manual analysis and the fuzzy analysis is critical: potential high value targets identified by these approaches in the western GTO lie largely under cover, whereas traditional manual targeting is biased to areas of outcrop or sub-crop amenable to direct detection technology such as exploration geochemistry, and therefore towards areas that are data rich.The results show the power of combining the three approaches to prioritize areas for exploration. While the manual analysis identifies and employs human intuition and can see through incomplete datasets, it is difficult to filter out human bias and to systematically apply to a large region. The fuzzy method is more systematic, and highlights areas that the manual analysis has undervalued, but lacks the intuitive power of the human mind that refines the target by seeing through incomplete datasets. The empirical WoE method highlights correlations with favorable host stratigraphy and highlights the control of an early set of structures potentially undervalued in the knowledge driven approaches, yet is biased due to the incomplete nature of exploration datasets and lack of abundant gold deposits due to the extensive cover.The results indicate that the most prospective areas for orogenic gold in western GTO are located in the central part of the study area, largely in areas blind to previous exploration efforts. According to our study, the procedure to follow should be to undertake the analyses in the following order: manual prospectivity analysis, followed by the conceptual fuzzy approach, followed by the empirical GIS-based method. Undertaking the manual analysis first is important to prevent explorationists from being biased by the automated GIS-based outputs. It is however emphasized that all of the prospectivity outputs from these three methods are possible, and they should not be treated as ‘treasure maps’, but instead, as decision-support aids. Therefore, a final manual prospectivity analysis redefined by the mutual consideration of output from all of the methods is required.The strategy employed in this study constitutes a new template for best-practice in terrane- to camp-scale exploration targeting that can be applied to different terranes and deposit types, particularly in terranes under cover, and provides a step forward in managing uncertainty in the exploration targeting process.     

Incorporating conceptual and interpretation uncertainty to mineral prospectivity modelling

Prospectivity analyses are used to reduce the exploration search space for locating areas prospective for mineral deposits.The scale of a study and the type of mineral system associated with the deposit control the evidence layers used as proxies that represent critical ore genesis processes.In particular,knowledge-driven approaches(fuzzy logic)use a conceptual mineral systems model from which data proxies represent the critical components.These typically vary based on the scale of study and the type of mineral system being predicted.Prospectivity analyses utilising interpreted data to represent proxies for a mineral system model inherit the subjectivity of the interpretations and the uncertainties of the evidence layers used in the model.In the case study presented,the prospectivity for remobilised nickel sulphide(NiS)in the west Kimberley,Western Australia,is assessed with two novel techniques that objectively grade interpretations and accommodate alternative mineralisation scenarios.Exploration targets are then identified and supplied with a robustness assessment that reflects the variability of prospectivity value for each location when all models are considered.The first technique grades the strength of structural interpretations on an individual line-segment basis.Gradings are obtained from an objective measure of feature evidence,which is the quantification of specific patterns in geophysical data that are considered to reveal underlying structure.Individual structures are weighted in the prospectivity model with grading values correlated to their feature evidence.This technique allows interpreted features to contribute prospectivity proportional to their strength in feature evidence and indicates the level of associated stochastic uncertainty.The second technique aims to embrace the systemic uncertainty of modelling complex mineral systems.In this approach,multiple prospectivity maps are each generated with different combinations of confidence values applied to evidence layers to represent the diversity of processes potentially leading to ore deposition.With a suite of prospectivity maps,the most robust exploration targets are the locations with the highest prospectivity values showing the smallest range amongst the model suite.This new technique offers an approach that reveals to the modeller a range of alternative mineralisation scenarios while employing a sensible mineral systems model,robust modelling of prospectivity and significantly reducing the exploration search space for Ni.     

Geology,geodynamics and orogenic gold prospectivity modelling of the Paleoproterozoic Kumasi Basin,Ghana, West Africa

This paper describes the geology and tectonics of the Paleoproterozoic Kumasi Basin, Ghana, West Africa, as applied to predictive mapping of prospectivity for orogenic gold mineral systems within the basin. The main objective of the study was to identify the most prospective ground for orogenic gold deposits within the Paleoproterozoic Kumasi Basin. A knowledge-driven, two-stage fuzzy inference system (FIS) was used for prospectivity modelling. The spatial proxies that served as input to the FIS were derived based on a conceptual model of gold mineral systems in the Kumasi Basin. As a first step, key components of the mineral system were predictively modelled using a Mamdani-type FIS. The second step involved combining the individual FIS outputs using a conjunction (product) operator to produce a continuous-scale prospectivity map. Using a cumulative area fuzzy favourability (CAFF) curve approach, this map was reclassified into a ternary prospectivity map divided into high-prospectivity, moderate-prospectivity and low-prospectivity areas, respectively. The spatial distribution of the known gold deposits within the study area relative to that of the prospective and non-prospective areas served as a means for evaluating the capture efficiency of our model. Approximately 99% of the known gold deposits and occurrences fall within high- and moderate-prospectivity areas that occupy 31% of the total study area. The high- and moderate-prospectivity areas illustrated by the prospectivity map are elongate features that are spatially coincident with areas of structural complexity along and reactivation during D4 of NE–SW-striking D2 thrust faults and subsidiary structures, implying a strong structural control on gold mineralization in the Kumasi Basin. In conclusion, our FIS approach to mapping gold prospectivity, which was based entirely on the conceptual reasoning of expert geologists and ignored the spatial distribution of known gold deposits for prospectivity estimation, effectively captured the main mineralized trends. As such, this study also demonstrates the effectiveness of FIS in capturing the linguistic reasoning of expert knowledge by exploration geologists. In spite of using a large number of variables, the curse of dimensionality was precluded because no training data are required for parameter estimation.     

A method for mineral prospectivity mapping integrating C4.5 decision tree,weights-of-evidence and m-branch smoothing techniques: a case study in the eastern Kunlun Mountains,China

In this study, a novel method that integrates C4.5 decision tree, weights-of-evidence and m-branch smoothing techniques was proposed for mineral prospectivity mapping. First, a weights-of-evidence model was used to rank the importance of each evidential map and determine the optimal buffer distance. Second, a classification technique that uses a C4.5 decision tree in data mining was used to construct a decision tree classifier for the grid dataset. Finally, an m-branch smoothing technique was used as a predictor, which transformed the decision tree into a probability evaluation tree. The method makes no conditional independence assumption and can be applied for class imbalanced datasets like those collected during mineral exploration for prospectivity mapping of an area. The traits of comprehensibility, accuracy and efficiency were derived from the C4.5 decision tree. In addition, a case study for iron prospectivity mapping was performed in the eastern Kunlun Mountains, China. Sixty-two Skarn iron deposits and eight evidential maps related to iron mineralization were studied. On the final map, areas of low, moderate and high potential for iron deposit occurrence covered areas of 71,491, 14,298, and 9,532 km², respectively. For the goodness-of-fit test, 91.94 % of the total 62 iron deposits were within a high-potential area, 8.06 % were within a moderate-potential area and 0 % were within a low-potential area. For ten-fold cross-validation, 82.26 % were within a high-potential area, 14.52 % were within a moderate-potential area and 3.22 % were within a low-potential area. To evaluate the predictive accuracy, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves and Area Under ROC Curve (AUC) were employed. The accuracy of the goodness-of-fit test reached 97.07 %, and the accuracy of the ten-fold cross-validation was 95.10 %. The majority of the iron deposits were within high-potential and moderate-potential areas, which covered a small proportion of the study area.     

西藏铁格隆南铜(金)矿床三维模型分析与深部预测

铁格隆南铜(金)矿床是近年来在班公湖-怒江成矿带西段多龙矿集区新发现的超大型Cu(Au-Ag)矿床。本文针对铁格隆南矿区深部找矿问题,以现代成矿地质理论和多元地学信息综合分析技术为支撑,以构建矿床找矿模型为指导,依托数据库技术、3S技术、三维建模与可视化技术及地质统计学理论与方法,开展基于矿产地质、地球物理、地球化学等成矿条件及找矿标志的三维地质实体建模与矿化异常三维空间重构,将铁格隆南矿床的预测评价研究拓展到三维空间,揭示了区内成矿地质特征、地球化学及地球物理异常表征,据此探讨了矿床的成因及矿体分布特征。并在此基础上,开展了矿区的地质-地球化学-地球物理综合信息分析与预测评价,以期减少单一信息多解性和成矿条件不确定性,为铁格隆南矿区深部找矿工作提供参考。研究结果表明:在地质找矿模型指导下,基于深部成矿空间三维结构重构基础上的三维地质、地球物理、地球化学异常信息提取与综合分析,可以有效的识别成矿地质体和矿致异常信息,实现深部矿产资源靶区空间定位预测,为深部找矿预测研究提供了新思路。综合分析结果显示铁格隆南矿床深部找矿潜力巨大。     

The use of the weights-of-evidence modeling technique to predictive porphyry Cu potential mapping in Ahar–Arasbaran zone,Iran

The weights-of-evidence is a data-driven method that provides a simple approach to integration of diverse geo-data set information. In this study, we will use weights-of-evidence to build a model for predicting tracts in the Ahar–Arasbaran zone of Urumieh-Dokhtar orogenic belt (northwestern Iran) that are favorable for porphyry copper deposits. Weights of evidence are a data-driven method requiring known deposits and occurrences that are used as training points in the evaluated area. This zone hosts two major porphyry Cu deposits (The Sarcheshmeh deposit contains 450 million tonnes of sulfide ore with an average grade of 1.13 % Cu and 0.03 % Mo and Sungun deposit, which has 500 million tonnes of sulfide reserves grading 0.76 % Cu and 0.01 % Mo), and a number of subeconomic porphyry copper deposits are all associated with Mid- to Late Miocene diorite/granodiorite to quartz-monzonite stocks. Five evidential layers including geology, alteration, geochemistry, geophysics, and faulting are chosen for potential mapping. Weight factors were determined based on the applied method to generate last mineral prospectivity map. The studied area reduces to less than 11.78 %, while large zones are excluded for further studies. This result represents a significant area reduction and may help to better focus on mineral exploration targeting porphyry copper deposits in the Ahar–Arasbaran zone.     

Fuzzy inference systems for prospectivity modeling of mineral systems and a case-study for prospectivity mapping of surficial Uranium in Yeelirrie Area,Western Australia

A Mamdani-type fuzzy inference system for prospectivity modeling of mineral systems is described. The system is a type of knowledge-driven symbolic artificial intelligence that is transparent, intuitive and is easy to construct by geologists because they are built in natural language and use linguistic values. No examples are used for training the system and expert-opinions are incorporated indirectly in terms of objective mathematical functions, which reduce the possibility of over-emphasizing the known deposits usually used as training data. The cognitive reasoning of the exploration geologist is captured in explicit if–then type of statements written in natural language using linguistic values. Conditional dependencies in the exploration data sets are managed through the use of fuzzy operators. A case study for surficial uranium prospectivity modeling in the Yeelirrie area, Western Australia, is used to demonstrate the approach. In the output prospectivity map, the SE-NW trending Yeelirrie and E-W trending Hinkler's Well palaeochannels show high prospectivity, while other channels show very low prospectivity ranges. The known surficial uranium deposits fall in high prospectivity areas, although minor showings and anomalies in the southern part of the study area fall in low prospectivity areas. A comparison of the prospectivity model with the radiometric image shows that several channels showing high surface uranium concentrations in the NW and NE quadrants may not be prospective.     

Probabilistic Fuzzy Logic Modeling: Quantifying Uncertainty of Mineral Prospectivity Models Using Monte Carlo Simulations

Significant uncertainties are associated with the definition of both the exploration targeting criteria and computational algorithms used to generate mineral prospectivity maps. In prospectivity modeling, the input and computational uncertainties are generally made implicit, by making a series of best-guess or best-fit decisions, on the basis of incomplete and imprecise information. The individual uncertainties are then compounded and propagated into the final prospectivity map as an implicit combined uncertainty which is impossible to directly analyze and use for decision making. This paper proposes a new approach to explicitly define uncertainties of individual targeting criteria and propagate them through a computational algorithm to evaluate the combined uncertainty of a prospectivity map. Applied to fuzzy logic prospectivity models, this approach involves replacing point estimates of fuzzy membership values by statistical distributions deemed representative of likely variability of the corresponding fuzzy membership values. Uncertainty is then propagated through a fuzzy logic inference system by applying Monte Carlo simulations. A final prospectivity map is represented by a grid of statistical distributions of fuzzy prospectivity. Such modeling of uncertainty in prospectivity analyses allows better definition of exploration target quality, as understanding of uncertainty is consistently captured, propagated and visualized in a transparent manner. The explicit uncertainty information of prospectivity maps can support further risk analysis and decision making. The proposed probabilistic fuzzy logic approach can be used in any area of geosciences to model uncertainty of complex fuzzy systems.     

Predictive mapping of prospectivity for orogenic gold,Giyani greenstone belt (South Africa)

We present a mineral systems approach to predictive mapping of orogenic gold prospectivity in the Giyani greenstone belt (GGB) by using layers of spatial evidence representing district-scale processes that are critical to orogenic gold mineralization, namely (a) source of metals/fluids, (b) active pathways, (c) drivers of fluid flow and (d) metal deposition. To demonstrate that the quality of a predictive map of mineral prospectivity is a function of the quality of the maps used as sources of spatial evidence, we created two sets of prospectivity maps — one using an old lithologic map and another using an updated lithological map as two separate sources of spatial evidence for source of metals/fluids, drivers of fluid flow and metal deposition. We also demonstrate the importance of using spatially-coherent (or geologically-consistent) deposit occurrences in data-driven predictive mapping of mineral prospectivity. The best predictive orogenic gold prospectivity map obtained in this study is the one that made use of spatial evidence from the updated lithological map and spatially-coherent orogenic gold occurrences. This map predicts 20% of the GGB to be prospective for orogenic gold, with 89% goodness-of-fit between spatially-coherent inactive orogenic gold mines and individual layers of spatial evidence and 89% prediction-rate against spatially-coherent orogenic gold prospects. In comparison, the predictive gold prospectivity map obtained by using spatial evidence from the old lithological map and all gold occurrences has 80% goodness-of-fit but only 63% prediction-rate. These results mean that the prospectivity map based on spatially-coherent gold occurrences and spatial evidence from the updated lithological map predicts exploration targets better (i.e., 28% smaller prospective areas with 9% stronger fit to training gold mines and 26% higher prediction-rate with respect to validation gold prospects) than the prospectivity map based on all known gold occurrences and spatial evidence from the old lithological map.     

Receiver operating characteristics (ROC) as validation tool for prospectivity models — A magmatic Ni–Cu case study from the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt,Northern Finland

A prospectivity model for magmatic Ni–Cu deposits was created by integrating spatially referenced geophysical and geochemical datasets based on a simple and practical exploration model. The study area is the Central Lapland Greenstone Belt, Northern Fennoscandian Shield, Finland. Magmatic nickel deposits are related to rock types that are typically characterized by local magnetic and gravity anomalies. These deposit types can also be a source of nickel, copper and cobalt anomalies in the overlying glacial till cover. This straightforward exploration criterion was translated into a fuzzy logic prospectivity model. The model validation is an essential step in justifying the validity of the prospectivity model. This was accomplished by using receiver operating characteristics (ROC) technique. We used the known Ni–Cu occurrences and deposits as true positive cases and other deposit type locations or random points as true negative cases in the validation process. It appears that the ROC technique provides a robust model validation and optimization technique, providing that suitable validation data exists.     

应用GIS研究矿产资源潜力--以云南澜沧江流域为例

应用地理信息系统(GIS)技术,深入地研究了云南澜沧江流域成矿的建造和构造,划分出不同级别的地质异常单元和有利成矿的断层影响带;分析了化探异常与相关矿床的耦合度和出现率;系统地总结了已有矿点资料,建立了矿产资源潜力评价空间分析模型.在上述研究基础上作出该地区有色、稀有、贵金属资源潜力图,对资源潜力作出评价.     

Improved Wildcat Modelling of Mineral Prospectivity

Wildcat modelling of mineral prospectivity has been proposed for greenfields geologically-permissive terranes where mineral targets have not yet been discovered but a geological map is available as a source of spatial data of predictors of mineral prospectivity. This paper (i) revisits the initial way of assigning wildcat scores (S_c) to predictors of mineral prospectivity and (ii) proposes an improvement by transforming S_c into improved wildcat scores (IS_c) by using a logistic function. This was shown in wildcat modelling of prospectivity for low-sulphidation epithermal-Au (LSEG) deposits in Aroroy district (Philippines). Based on knowledge of characteristics of and controls on LSEG mineralization in the Philippines, the spatial predictors of LSEG prospectivity used in the study are proximity to porphyry plutonic stocks, faults/fractures and fault/fracture intersections. The S_c and IS_c of spatial predictors are input separately to principal components analysis to extract a favourability function that can be interpreted as a wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity. The predictive capacity of the wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the IS_c of geological predictors is roughly 70% higher than that of the wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the S_c of geological predictors. A slight increase of predictive capacity of wildcat modelling of LSEG prospectivity is also achieved when the IS_c of geological predictors are integrated with the IS_c of geochemical anomalies, but not with the S_c of geochemical anomalies. The proposed improvement is significant because if the study district were a greenfields exploration area, then a wildcat model of LSEG prospectivity based on the old wildcat methodology would have caused several LSEG targets to be missed.     

宁芜盆地白象山矿区人工神经网络 三维成矿定位预测研究

本文基于三维地质环境,综合白象山矿区积累的地质资料和物探成果,首先开展三维地质建模工作,详细刻画了白象山矿区的三维地质结构;在三维地质模型基础上,利用三维空间分析手段对三维控矿因素进行定量挖掘,提取了多种三维控矿因素;最后采用人工神经网络方法进行三维成矿定位预测。预测结果显示,人工神经网络三维成矿定位预测能很好的定位出已知矿体,同时显示,在已知矿体北部及东部的深边部具有较高的成矿概率,可作为开展进一步找矿勘探的靶区。因此,人工神经网络三维成矿定位预测对于白象山矿区的应用是有效的,可服务于新老矿区的深边部三维成矿定位预测,同时可为隐伏矿、盲矿的成矿预测和优选靶区提供定量、定位新的方法和途径。