Performance of operational systems with respect to water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland

This paper is devoted to the validation of water level forecasts in the Gulf of Finland. Daily forecasts produced by four setups of operational, three-dimensional Baltic Sea oceanographic models are analyzed using statistical means and are compared with water level observations at three Finnish stations located on the northern coast of the Gulf of Finland. The overall conclusion is that the operational systems were skillful in forecasting water level variations during the study period from November 1, 2003, to January 31, 2005. The factors causing differences between the water level forecasts of different models are discussed as well. An important task of operational sea level forecasting services is to provide accurate and early information about extreme water levels, both positive and negative surges. During the study period, two major winter storms occurred which caused coastal flooding in the region. According to our analysis, the operational models forecast the rise of water levels during these events rather successfully. Nowadays, operational forecasts can provide early warnings of extreme water levels at least 1 day in advance, which may be regarded as a minimum requirement for an operational forecasting system. The paper concludes that the models generally performed very well, with over 93% of the hourly water level forecasts found to be within the range of ±15 cm of the observed water levels, and with the timing of the water level peaks accurately predicted. Further discussion and studies dealing with the assessment of the skills of both operational meteorological and oceanographic forecasts, especially in connection with rare surge events, will be necessary. Skill assessment of operational oceanographic models would be relatively easy if acceptable error limits or a quality system was developed for the Baltic Sea operational models.     

Nutrient conditions in the Euboikos Gulf (west Aegean)

The Euboikos Gulf is a restricted embayment on the eastern coast of Greece, having a significant, unusual tidal phenomenon, and receiving some industrial and domestic wates. The South Euboikos Gulf has only slightly greater concentrations of nutrients than background, while the North Euboikos Gulf tends to accumulate nutrients, in particular nitrate and silicate. Also a comparison is made with the nutrient concentrations in polluted coastal gulfs of the Aegean. The different nutrient levels are due to the different sources of nutrients, as well as the morphology of each area and the circulation of the waters.     

Modelled variability of the sea surface circulation in the North-western Mediterranean Sea and in the Gulf of Lions

A chain of three nested models, based on the MARS 3D code, is used to simulate the North-western Mediterranean Sea circulation with a finest grid of 1.2 km resolution and 30 vertical sigma levels. This modelling system allows to resolve the coastal dynamics taking into account the influence of the general basin circulation. The aim of this study is to assess the ability of the nested MARS-3D models to reproduce most of the circulation features observed in the North-western Mediterranean Basin and in the Gulf of Lions. Comparisons of modelled sea surface temperature and salinity with MEDAR/MEDATLAS climatology and NOAA/AVHRR satellite measurements show that the model accurately reproduces the large and coastal scale variability. Over the Northern Basin, the seasonal changes of the cyclonic gyre extension are correctly simulated, even though in summer, the modelled temperature of the surface layer remains in basin-average 1°C cooler than the satellite measured temperature. As soon as the stratification erodes, modelled and observed temperatures become closer. Over the Gulf of Lions, realistic coastal responses are obtained under different wind conditions. Upwellings are correctly located and their intensity and spatial extension were here improved by the use of Aladin wind fields (10 km spatial resolution) and the introduction of a drag coefficient fitted according to the stability of the planetary boundary layer. The dispersion of fresh Rhone water discharge and the mesoscale circulation simulated by MARS-3D also agree with satellite measurements.     

Nutrient conditions in the Patraikos Gulf

The Gulf of Patras is a silled embayment opening into the Ionian Sea on the west, and through the straits of Rio into the Gulf of Corinth, on the east. The latter communicates through the Corinth canal with the Aegean Sea. Patraikos Gulf has only slightly greater concentrations of nutrients than background, in particular nitrate and silicate. A comparison is made with the nutrient concentrations in polluted coastal gulfs of the Aegean, where different nutrient levels are due to the different sources of nutrients as well as the morphology and the circulation of the waters.     

A statistical description on the wind-coherent responses of sea surface heights off the US West Coast

Local and remote wind-coherent responses of sea surface heights (SSHs) off the US West Coast (USWC) are described with statistical and analytical models. The wind transfer functions are statistically derived from surface wind stress at National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) buoys, located within 50 km from the shoreline, and detided SSHs (SSH anomalies; SSHAs) at shoreline tide gauges for 15 years (1995 to 2009) using linear regression in the frequency domain. A two-dimensional analytical model constrained by the coastal boundary provides a dynamical framework to interpret the data-derived statistical model. Although both transfer functions agree well at low frequency [σ ≤ 0.4 cycles per day (cpd)], they appear to be inconsistent at high frequency (σ ≥ 0.8 cpd; e.g., diurnal and its harmonic frequencies) because of incoherent signals between wind stress and SSHAs as well as their low signal-to-noise ratios. A multivariate regression analysis using wind stress at multiple wind buoys is implemented with a modified expectation maximization. The cross-validated skill increases and becomes saturated as the number of regression basis functions increases, demonstrating the influence of local and remote winds. The skill computed from all available winds off the USWC has a maximum as 0.1 in southern California, 0.2 to 0.3 in central California, and 0.3 to 0.5 in northern California, Oregon, and Washington. The residual SSHAs, incoherent components with all available coastal wind stress off the USWC, still contain poleward propagating signals, considered as components forced by remote winds outside of the domain.     

Turbulent mixing in fine-scale phytoplankton layers: Observations and inferences of layer dynamics

Turbulence measurements in fine-scale phytoplankton layers (∼1 to ∼10 m) in the Gulf of Aqaba (Red Sea) were used to evaluate mechanisms of layer formation, maintenance, and breakdown. Simultaneous profiles of chlorophyll a (Chl a) fluorescence and temperature microstructure were measured in the upper 40 m of a 430 m water column over a 16-d period, using a Self Contained Autonomous MicroProfiler (SCAMP). Layers of concentrated phytoplankton were identified in 95 of the 456 profiles. The layers were situated in density stratified regions between 15 and 38 m depth and were characterized by intensities of 0.1 to 0.35 μg Chl a L⁻¹ (as much as two times background concentrations) and an average thickness of 10 m. We show that turbulent mixing and isopycnal displacements associated with internal waves modulated the thickness of the layers. Variations in mixing rates within layers were connected to the vertical structure of the stratified turbulence and the stage of layer development. The breakdown of a persistent phytoplankton layer was tied to strong turbulent mixing at the base of the surface mixed layer, which encroached on the layer from above. Hydrographic observations and scaling analysis suggest that the layers most likely formed in horizontal intrusions from the adjacent coastal region. The cross-shore propagation of phytoplankton-rich intrusions may have important implications for the trophic state of offshore planktonic communities.     

Ground water discharge and nitrate flux to the Gulf of Mexico

Ground water samples (37 to 186 m depth) from Baldwin County, Alabama, are used to define the hydrogeology of Gulf coastal aquifers and calculate the subsurface discharge of nutrients to the Gulf of Mexico. The ground water flow and nitrate flux have been determined by linking ground water concentrations to 3H/3He and 4He age dates. The middle aquifer (A2) is an active flow system characterized by postnuclear tritium levels, moderate vertical velocities, and high nitrate concentrations. Ground water discharge could be an unaccounted source for nutrients in the coastal oceans. The aquifers annually discharge 1.1 +/- 0.01 x 10(8) moles of nitrate to the Gulf of Mexico, or 50% and 0.8% of the annual contributions from the Mobile-Alabama River System and the Mississippi River System, respectively. In southern Baldwin County, south of Loxley, increasing reliance on ground water in the deeper A3 aquifer requires accurate estimates of safe ground water withdrawal. This aquifer, partially confined by Pliocene clay above and Pensacola Clay below, is tritium dead and contains elevated 4He concentrations with no nitrate and estimated ground water ages from 100 to 7000 years. The isotopic composition and concentration of natural gas diffusing from the Pensacola Clay into the A3 aquifer aids in defining the deep ground water discharge. The highest 4He and CH4 concentrations are found only in the deepest sample (Gulf State Park), indicating that ground water flow into the Gulf of Mexico suppresses the natural gas plume. Using the shape of the CH4-He plume and the accumulation of 4He rate (2.2 +/- 0.8 microcc/kg/1000 years), we estimate the natural submarine discharge and the replenishment rate for the A3 aquifer.     

Satellite-derived variability of the Aegean Sea ecohydrodynamics

Eight years of AVHRR-derived sea surface temperature (SST) and SeaWiFS-derived surface chlorophyll (Chl) data (1998–2005) are used to investigate key processes affecting the spatial and temporal variability of the two parameters in the Aegean Sea. Seasonal mean SST and Chl maps are constructed using daily data to study seasonal dynamics whereas empirical orthogonal function (EOF) and correlational analysis is applied to the 8-day composite SST and Chl anomaly time-series in order to study the variability and co-variability of the two parameters from subseasonal to interannual time-scales. The seasonal mean fields show that Black Sea cold and chlorophyll-rich waters enter through the Dardanelles Strait and they are accumulated in the north-eastern part of the Aegean Sea, steered by the Samothraki anticyclone. Large chlorophyll concentrations are encountered in the hydrological front off the Dardanelles Strait as well as in coastal areas affected by large riverine/anthropogenic nutrient loads. The SST seasonal mean patterns reveal strong cooling that is associated with upwelling along the eastern boundary of the basin during summer due to strong northerly winds, a process which is not present in the surface chlorophyll climatology. The Chl dataset presents much stronger sub-seasonal variability than SST, with large variations in the phase and strength of the phytoplankton seasonal cycles. EOF analysis of the anomaly time-series shows that SST non-seasonal variability is controlled by synoptic weather variations and anomalies in the north–south wind-stress component regulating the summer coastal upwelling regime. Mean SST and Chl patterns, and their associated variations, are not closely linked implying that Black Sea and riverine inputs mainly control the intra-annual and interannual variability of the surface chlorophyll in the Aegean Sea rather than mixing and/or upwelling processes.     

Phytoplankton biomass size structure and its regulation in the Southern Yellow Sea (China): Seasonal variability

Phytoplankton size structure plays a significant role in controlling the carbon flux of marine pelagic ecosystems. The mesoscale distribution and seasonal variation of total and size-fractionated phytoplankton biomass in surface waters, as measured by chlorophyll a (Chl a), was studied in the Southern Yellow Sea using data from four cruises during 2006–2007. The distribution of Chl a showed a high degree of spatial and temporal variation in the study area. Chl a concentrations were relatively high in the summer and autumn, with a mean of 1.42 and 1.27 mg m⁻³, respectively. Conversely, in the winter and spring, the average Chl a levels were only 0.98 and 0.99 mg m⁻³. Total Chl a showed a clear decreasing gradient from coastal areas to the open sea in the summer, autumn and winter cruises. Patches of high Chl a were observed in the central part of the Southern Yellow Sea in the spring due to the onset of the phytoplankton bloom. The eutrophic coastal waters contributed at least 68% of the total phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. Picophytoplankton showed a consistent and absolute dominance in the central region of the Southern Yellow Sea (>40%) in all of the cruises, while the proportion of microphytoplankton was the highest in coastal waters. The relative proportions of pico- and nanophytoplankton decreased with total biomass, whereas the proportion of the micro-fraction increased with total biomass. Relationships between phytoplankton biomass and environmental factors were also analysed. The results showed that the onset of the spring bloom was highly dependent on water column stability. Phytoplankton growth was limited by nutrient availability in the summer due to the strong thermocline. The combined effects of P-limitation and vertical mixing in the autumn restrained the further increase of phytoplankton biomass in the surface layer. The low phytoplankton biomass in winter was caused by vertical dispersion due to intense mixing. Compared with the availability of nutrients, temperature did not seem to cause direct effects on phytoplankton biomass and its size structure. Although interactions of many different environmental factors affected phytoplankton distributions, hydrodynamic conditions seemed to be the dominant factor. Phytoplankton size structure was determined mainly by the size-differential capacity in acquiring resource. Short time scale events, such as the spring bloom and the extension of Yangtze River plume, can have substantial influences, both on the total Chl a concentration and on the size structure of the phytoplankton.     

A set of rapid-response models for pollutant dispersion assessments in southern Spain coastal waters

Three rapid-response Lagrangian particle-tracking dispersion models have been developed for southern Spain coastal waters. The three domains cover the Gulf of Cádiz (Atlantic Ocean), the Alborán Sea (Mediterranean), and the Strait of Gibraltar with higher spatial resolution. The models are based on different hydrodynamic submodels, which are run in advance. Tides are calculated using a 2D barotropic model in the three cases. Models used to obtain the residual circulation depend on the physical oceanography of each region. Thus, two-layer models are applied to Gibraltar Strait and Alborán Sea and a 3D baroclinic model is used in the Gulf of Cádiz. Results from these models have been compared with observations to validate them and are then used by the particle-tracking models to calculate dispersion. Chemical, radioactive and oil spills may be simulated, incorporating specific processes for each kind of pollutant. Several application examples are provided.     

Dissolved oxygen--a target indicator in determining use of the Gulf of Kachchh waters

Spatial and temporal variations of Dissolved Oxygen (DO) and Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) in the Gulf of Kachchh (GoK), India are assessed based on data collected since 1976. DO concentrations in the interior GoK vary within a narrow range (6.05-6.86 mg l(-1)), whereas near-shore waters show wider variations (3.5-7.8 mg l(-1)). The DO concentration levels in the Gulf waters are close to saturation, varying from 75.4% to 108.6%, which is much higher than the 60% saturation level set for the SW-1 waters. BOD-DO simulation shows that when effluents containing a BOD concentration of 50.0 mg l(-1) are introduced at three select locations, DO reduces from 5.1 mg l(-1) to 3.1, 5.0 and 3.8 mg l(-1), respectively, indicating a strong sensitivity to effluent load. Based on the DO analysis, BOD assimilation capacity of coastal waters around the Marine National Park (MNP) and Marine Sanctuary (MS) in the Gulf is determined. DO available for utilization for various categories of water use is illustrated, keeping in mind the ecology of MNP and MS areas. The significance of DO as a target indicator to zone the Gulf for different water use, is highlighted in this study.     

Distribution of petroleum hydrocarbons and organochlorinated contaminants in marine biota and coastal sediments from the ROPME Sea Area during 2005

The composition and spatial distribution of various petroleum hydrocarbons (PHs), comprising both aliphatic and polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs), and selected chlorinated pesticides and PCBs were measured in biota and coastal sediments from seven countries in the Persian Gulf and the Gulf of Oman (Bahrain, Iran, Kuwait, Oman, Qatar, Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates). Evidence of extensive marine contamination with respect to organochlorinated compounds and PHs was not observed. Only one site, namely the BAPCO oil refinery in Bahrain, was considered to be chronically contaminated. Comparison of the results from this survey for Σ DDTs and Σ PCBs in rock oysters from the Gulf of Oman with similar measurements made at the same locations over the past two decades indicates a temporal trend of overall decreasing Σ PCB concentrations in oysters, whereas Σ DDTs levels have little changed during that period.     

Stochastic renewal model of low-flow streamflow sequences

It is shown that runs of low-flow annual streamflow in a coastal semiarid basin of Central California can be adequately modelled by renewal theory. For example, runs of below-median annual streamflows are shown to follow a geometric distribution. The elapsed time between runs of below-median streamflow are geometrically distributed also. The sum of these two independently distributed geometric time variables defines the renewal time elapsing between the initiation of a low-flow run and the next one. The probability distribution of the renewal time is then derived from first principles, ultimately leading to the distribution of the number of low-flow runs in a specified time period, the expected number of low-flow runs, the risk of drought, and other important probabilistic indicators of low-flow. The authors argue that if one identifies drought threat with the occurrence of multiyear low-flow runs, as it is done by water supply managers in the study area, then our renewal model provides a number of interesting results concerning drought threat in areas historically subject to inclement, dry, climate. A 430-year long annual streamflow time series reconstructed by tree-ring analysis serves as the basis for testing our renewal model of low-flow sequences.     

Uncertainty in floodplain delineation: expression of flood hazard and risk in a Gulf Coast watershed

This paper investigates the development of flood hazard and flood risk delineations that account for uncertainty as improvements to standard floodplain maps for coastal watersheds. Current regulatory floodplain maps for the Gulf Coastal United States present 1% flood hazards as polygon features developed using deterministic, steady‐state models that do not consider data uncertainty or natural variability of input parameters. Using the techniques presented here, a standard binary deterministic floodplain delineation is replaced with a flood inundation map showing the underlying flood hazard structure. Additionally, the hazard uncertainty is further transformed to show flood risk as a spatially distributed probable flood depth using concepts familiar to practicing engineers and software tools accepted and understood by regulators. A case study of the proposed hazard and risk assessment methodology is presented for a Gulf Coast watershed, which suggests that storm duration and stage boundary conditions are important variable parameters, whereas rainfall distribution, storm movement, and roughness coefficients contribute less variability. The floodplain with uncertainty for this coastal watershed showed the highest variability in the tidally influenced reaches and showed little variability in the inland riverine reaches. Additionally, comparison of flood hazard maps to flood risk maps shows that they are not directly correlated, as areas of high hazard do not always represent high risk. Copyright © 2012 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity on Lagrangian statistics for coastal pollution from a major marine fairway

Lagrangian trajectory methods are often applied as deterministic transport models, where transport is due strictly to advection without taking into account stochastic elements of particle dispersion, which raises questions about validity of the model results. The present work investigates the impact of horizontal eddy diffusivity for a case study of coastal pollution in the Gulf of Finland, where the pollutants are assumed to originate from a major fairway and are transported to the coast by surface currents. Lagrangian trajectories are calculated using the TRACMASS model from velocity fields calculated by the Rossby Centre circulation model for 1982 to 2001. Three cases are investigated: (1) trajectory calculation without eddy diffusivity, (2) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a constant diffusion coefficient and (3) stochastic modelling of eddy diffusivity with a time- and space-variable diffusion coefficient. It is found that the eddy diffusivity effect increases the spreading rate of initially closely packed trajectories and the number of trajectories that eventually reach the coast. The pattern of most frequently hit coastal sections, the probability of hit to each such section and the time the pollution spends offshore are virtually invariant with respect to inclusion of eddy diffusivity.     

Drifter observations of the Gulf of Maine Coastal Current

Two-hundred and twenty seven satellite-tracked drifters were deployed in the Gulf of Maine (GoM) from 1988 to 2007, primarily during spring and summer. The archive of tracks includes over 100,000 km logged thus far. Statistics such as transit times, mean velocities, response to wind events, and preferred pathways are compiled for various areas of the coastal GoM. We compare Lagrangian flow with Eulerian estimates from nearby moorings and evaluate drifter trajectories using Ekman theory and 3-D ocean circulation models.     

Heavy metal contents in growth bands of Porites corals: record of anthropogenic and human developments from the Jordanian Gulf of Aqaba

In order to assess pollutants and impact of environmental changes in the coastal region of the Jordanian Gulf of Aqaba, concentrations of six metals were traced through variations in 5 years growth bands sections of recent Porties coral skeleton. X-radiography showed annual growth band patterns extending back to the year 1925. Baseline metal concentrations in Porites corals were established using 35 years-long metal record from late Holocene coral (deposited in pristine environment) and coral from reef that is least exposed to pollution in the marine reserve in the Gulf of Aqaba. The skeleton samples of the collected corals were acid digested and analyzed for their Cd, Cu, Fe, Mn, Pb and Zn content using Flame Atomic Absorption Spectrophotometer (FAAS). All metal profiles (except Fe and Zn) recorded the same metal signature from recent coral (1925–2005) in which low steady baseline levels were displayed in growth bands older than 1965, similar to those obtained from fossil and unpolluted corals. Most metals showed dramatic increase (ranging from 17% to 300%) in growth band sections younger than 1965 suggesting an extensive contamination of the coastal area since the mid sixties. This date represents the beginning of a period that witnessed increasing coastal activities, constructions and urbanization. This has produced a significant reduction in coral skeletal extension rates. Results from this study strongly suggest that Porites corals have a high tendency to accumulate heavy metals in their skeletons and therefore can serve as proxy tools to monitor and record environmental pollution (bioindicators) in the Gulf of Aqaba.     

Chlorinated hydrocarbons in marine biota and coastal sediments from the Gulf and Gulf of Oman

The spatial distribution of various organochlorinated compounds was investigated in the Gulf and Gulf of Oman based on marine biota (fish and various bivalves) and coastal sediment collected in Bahrain, Oman, Qatar and the United Arab Emirates (UAE) during 2000-2001. Several potential organic contaminants from agricultural (e.g., DDT and its breakdown products, lindane, endrin, dieldrin, endosulfan) and industrial (PCBs) sources were measured. Sediment burdens for all compounds, even for an apparent hot spot near a refinery in Bahrain, were amongst the lowest reported for surface sediments from other seas. Concentrations of DDTs were low in the muscle and liver of all fish (orange spotted grouper and the spangled emperor) analysed. Similarly, the levels of chlorinated hydrocarbons were low in the various bivalve species, notably rock oysters and pearl oysters. These results contribute to the sparse regional database for organochlorinated compounds in the marine environment. Moreover, they can be used as the most recent end point for elucidating temporal trends. Whereas the levels, albeit relatively low, SigmaDDTs in the rock oysters from the Gulf of Oman have remained uniform, there has been an irregular but generally decreasing trend in concentrations of summation SigmaPCBs during the last two decades.