Carbon sequestration via wood burial

To mitigate global climate change, a portfolio of strategies will be needed to keep the atmospheric CO₂ concentration below a dangerous level. Here a carbon sequestration strategy is proposed in which certain dead or live trees are harvested via collection or selective cutting, then buried in trenches or stowed away in above-ground shelters. The largely anaerobic condition under a sufficiently thick layer of soil will prevent the decomposition of the buried wood. Because a large flux of CO₂ is constantly being assimilated into the world's forests via photosynthesis, cutting off its return pathway to the atmosphere forms an effective carbon sink.     

Future productivity and phenology changes in European grasslands for different warming levels: implications for grassland management and carbon balance

Background

Europe has warmed more than the global average (land and ocean) since pre-industrial times, and is also projected to continue to warm faster than the global average in the twenty-first century. According to the climate models ensemble projections for various climate scenarios, annual mean temperature of Europe for 2071–2100 is predicted to be 1–5.5 °C higher than that for 1971–2000. Climate change and elevated CO₂ concentration are anticipated to affect grassland management and livestock production in Europe. However, there has been little work done to quantify the European-wide response of grassland to future climate change. Here we applied ORCHIDEE-GM v2.2, a grid-based model for managed grassland, over European grassland to estimate the impacts of future global change.

Results

Increases in grassland productivity are simulated in response to future global change, which are mainly attributed to the simulated fertilization effect of rising CO₂. The results show significant phenology shifts, in particular an earlier winter-spring onset of grass growth over Europe. A longer growing season is projected over southern and southeastern Europe. In other regions, summer drought causes an earlier end to the growing season, overall reducing growing season length. Future global change allows an increase of management intensity with higher than current potential annual grass forage yield, grazing capacity and livestock density, and a shift in seasonal grazing capacity. We found a continual grassland soil carbon sink in Mediterranean, Alpine, North eastern, South eastern and Eastern regions under specific warming level (SWL) of 1.5 and 2 °C relative to pre-industrial climate. However, this carbon sink is found to saturate, and gradually turn to a carbon source at warming level reaching 3.5 °C.

Conclusions

This study provides a European-wide assessment of the future changes in productivity and phenology of grassland, and their consequences for the management intensity and the carbon balance. The simulated productivity increase in response to future global change enables an intensification of grassland management over Europe. However, the simulated increase in the interannual variability of grassland productivity over some regions may reduce the farmers’ ability to take advantage of the increased long-term mean productivity in the face of more frequent, and more severe drops of productivity in the future.

     

Climate Change Studies Using Space Based Observation

Climate change is associated with earth radiation budget that depends upon incoming solar radiation, surface albedo and radiative forcing by greenhouse gases. Human activities are contributing to climate change by causing changes in Earth’s atmosphere (greenhouse gases, aerosols) and biosphere (deforestation, urbanization, irrigation). Long term and precise measurements from calibrated global observation constellation is a vital component in climate system modelling. Space based records of biosphere, cryosphere, hydrosphere and atmosphere over more than three decades are providing important information on climate change. Space observations are an important source of climate variables due to multi scale simultaneous observation (local, regional, and global scales) capability with temporal revisit in tune with requirements of land, ocean and atmospheric processes. Essential climatic variables that can be measured from space include atmosphere (upper air temperature, water vapour, precipitation, clouds, aerosols, GHGs etc.), ocean (sea ice, sea level, SST, salinity, ocean colour etc.) and land (snow, glacier, albedo, biomass, LAI/fAPAR, soil moisture etc.). India’s Earth Observation Programme addresses various aspects of land, ocean and atmospheric applications. The present and planned missions such as Resourcesat-1, Oceansat-2, RISAT, Megha-Tropiques, INSAT-3D, SARAL, Resourcesat-2, Geo-HR Imager and series of Environmental satellites (I-STAG) would help in understanding the issues related to climate changes. The paper reviews observational needs, space observation systems and studies that have been carried out at ISRO (Indian Space Research Organization) towards mapping/detecting the indicators of climate change, monitoring the agents of climate change and understanding the impact of climate change, in national perspectives. Studies to assess glacier retreat, changes in polar ice cover, timberline change and coral bleaching are being carried out towards monitoring of climate change indicators. Spatial methane inventories from paddy rice, livestock and wetlands have been prepared and seasonal pattern of CO₂, and CO have been analysed. Future challenges in space observations include design and placement of adequate and accurate multi-platform observational systems to monitor all parameters related to various interaction processes and generation of long term calibrated climate data records pertaining to land ocean and atmosphere.     

Africa and the global carbon cycle

The African continent has a large and growing role in the global carbon cycle, with potentially important climate change implications. However, the sparse observation network in and around the African continent means that Africa is one of the weakest links in our understanding of the global carbon cycle. Here, we combine data from regional and global inventories as well as forward and inverse model analyses to appraise what is known about Africa's continental-scale carbon dynamics. With low fossil emissions and productivity that largely compensates respiration, land conversion is Africa's primary net carbon release, much of it through burning of forests. Savanna fire emissions, though large, represent a short-term source that is offset by ensuing regrowth. While current data suggest a near zero decadal-scale carbon balance, interannual climate fluctuations (especially drought) induce sizeable variability in net ecosystem productivity and savanna fire emissions such that Africa is a major source of interannual variability in global atmospheric CO₂. Considering the continent's sizeable carbon stocks, their seemingly high vulnerability to anticipated climate and land use change, as well as growing populations and industrialization, Africa's carbon emissions and their interannual variability are likely to undergo substantial increases through the 21st century.     

GOSAT卫星数据监测中国大陆上空CO2浓度时空变化特征

中国地区大气CO2浓度对全球气候变化有重要的影响。本文基于日本GOSAT卫星短波红外CO2的长期观测数据,对2010年-2016年中国大陆上空CO2浓度的分布特征和变化趋势进行分析研究。利用高精度的地基TCCON站点CO2观测对GOSAT CO2数据进行精度验证,结果表明,GOSAT CO2具有较高的精度,相对TCCON CO2的偏差为-1.04±2.10 ppm,两者的相关系数高达0.90;利用中国地区7年的GOSAT CO2观测数据分析研究显示,CO2浓度高值主要分布在中国的浙江-江苏-安徽地区、京津冀地区和湖南-湖北-河南-陕西地区;截至2016年,中国大部地区CO2浓度超过400 ppm;中国大陆CO2平均浓度呈现明显的逐年增长趋势,从2010年的387.76 ppm增长到2016年的402.18 ppm,年增长率约为2.31 ppm/a,略高于同期全球平均水平。     

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

Background

Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.

Results

Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more. Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.

Conclusion

Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO₂. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO₂ concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.     

Seasonal variation of carbon fluxes in a sparse savanna in semi arid Sudan

Background

Large spatial, seasonal and annual variability of major drivers of the carbon cycle (precipitation, temperature, fire regime and nutrient availability) are common in the Sahel region. This causes large variability in net ecosystem exchange and in vegetation productivity, the subsistence basis for a major part of the rural population in Sahel. This study compares the 2005 dry and wet season fluxes of CO₂ for a grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan and relates these fluxes to water availability and incoming photosynthetic photon flux density (PPFD). Data from this site could complement the current sparse observation network in Africa, a continent where climatic change could significantly impact the future and which constitute a weak link in our understanding of the global carbon cycle.

Results

The dry season (represented by Julian day 35–46, February 2005) was characterized by low soil moisture availability, low evapotranspiration and a high vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE (net ecosystem exchange, Eq. 1) was -14.7 mmol d^-1 for the 12 day period (negative numbers denote sinks, i.e. flux from the atmosphere to the biosphere). The water use efficiency (WUE) was 1.6 mmol CO₂ mol H₂O^-1 and the light use efficiency (LUE) was 0.95 mmol CO₂ mol PPFD^-1. Photosynthesis is a weak, but linear function of PPFD. The wet season (represented by Julian day 266–273, September 2005) was, compared to the dry season, characterized by slightly higher soil moisture availability, higher evapotranspiration and a slightly lower vapor pressure deficit. The mean daily NEE was -152 mmol d^-1 for the 8 day period. The WUE was lower, 0.97 mmol CO₂ mol H₂O^-1 and the LUE was higher, 7.2 μmol CO₂ mmol PPFD^-1 during the wet season compared to the dry season. During the wet season photosynthesis increases with PPFD to about 1600 μmol m^-2s^-1 and then levels off.

Conclusion

Based on data collected during two short periods, the studied ecosystem was a sink of carbon both during the dry and wet season 2005. The small sink during the dry season is surprising and similar dry season sinks have not to our knowledge been reported from other similar savanna ecosystems and could have potential management implications for agroforestry. A strong response of NEE versus small changes in plant available soil water content was found. Collection and analysis of flux data for several consecutive years including variations in precipitation, available soil moisture and labile soil carbon are needed for understanding the year to year variation of the carbon budget of this grass land/sparse savanna site in semi arid Sudan.     

Modeling projected changes of mangrove biomass in different climatic scenarios in the Sunda Banda Seascapes

ABSTRACT

Mangroves are critical in the ecological, economic and social development of coastal rural and urban communities. However, they are under threat by climate change and anthropogenic activities. The Sunda Banda Seascape (SBS), Indonesia, is among the world’s richest regions of mangrove biomass and biodiversity. To inform current and future management strategies, it is critical to provide estimates of how mangroves will respond to climate change in this region. Therefore, this paper utilized spatial analysis with model-based climatic indicators (temperature and precipitation) and mangrove distribution maps to estimate a benchmark for the mangrove biomass of the SBS in six scenarios, namely the Last Inter-glacial Period, the current scenario (1950–2000) and all four projected Representative Concentration Pathways in 2070 due to climate change. Despite mangroves gaining more biomass with climate change (the increase in CO₂ concentration), this paper highlighted the great proportion of below-ground biomass in mangrove forests. It also showed that the changes in spatial distribution of mangrove biomass became more variable in the context of climate change. As mangroves have been proposed as an essential component of climate change strategies, this study can serve as a baseline for future studies and resource management strategies.     

全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究

科技部在"十三五"期间部署的国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项资助了"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。     

Seasonal and inter-annual variability of atmosphere CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> based on NOAA Carbon Tracker analysis and satellite observations

A study on seasonal and inter-annual variability of the atmospheric CO₂ is carried out based on National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Carbon Tracker (NOAACT) re-analysis and satellite measurements of mid-troposphere CO₂ by Atmosphere Infrared Sounder on board NASA’s Aqua and lower troposphere CO₂ by Greenhouse-gas Observing Satellite. Seasonal and non-seasonal components of each time series were extracted by means of least square based harmonic analysis procedure. The data of surface CO₂ fluxes used in the NOAACT are also analyzed to examine its relationship with the atmosphere CO₂ variability at different time scales. There exists good consistency between NOAACT analysis and satellite observations in their respective seasonal harmonics and climatology. Surface layer CO₂ exhibits large climatological mean over the regions of major anthropogenic sources together with strong seasonal cycle over the humid and cold climatic terrestrial regions especially over the northern hemisphere. Existence of high coherency with the different components of the surface fluxes shows that surface layer atmosphere CO₂ seasonality is primarily contributed from the terrestrial ecosystem exchanges and secondarily by anthropogenic and oceanic exchanges. The mid-troposphere CO₂ exhibits large values associated with climatology and amplitudes of semi-annual and annual cycles over the northern extra tropics and Polar Regions along with a gradual decreasing trend from northern to southern hemisphere. Inter-annual variability of atmospheric CO₂ in the NOAACT in some extent is consistent with the satellite observations. Large scale circulation patterns, its fluctuations associated with ENSO events and large scale ecosystem disturbances have significant influence on the inter-annual variability.     

Impacts of large-scale climatic disturbances on the terrestrial carbon cycle

Background

The amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere steadily increases as a consequence of anthropogenic emissions but with large interannual variability caused by the terrestrial biosphere. These variations in the CO₂ growth rate are caused by large-scale climate anomalies but the relative contributions of vegetation growth and soil decomposition is uncertain. We use a biogeochemical model of the terrestrial biosphere to differentiate the effects of temperature and precipitation on net primary production (NPP) and heterotrophic respiration (Rh) during the two largest anomalies in atmospheric CO₂ increase during the last 25 years. One of these, the smallest atmospheric year-to-year increase (largest land carbon uptake) in that period, was caused by global cooling in 1992/93 after the Pinatubo volcanic eruption. The other, the largest atmospheric increase on record (largest land carbon release), was caused by the strong El Niño event of 1997/98.

Results

We find that the LPJ model correctly simulates the magnitude of terrestrial modulation of atmospheric carbon anomalies for these two extreme disturbances. The response of soil respiration to changes in temperature and precipitation explains most of the modelled anomalous CO₂ flux.

Conclusion

Observed and modelled NEE anomalies are in good agreement, therefore we suggest that the temporal variability of heterotrophic respiration produced by our model is reasonably realistic. We therefore conclude that during the last 25 years the two largest disturbances of the global carbon cycle were strongly controlled by soil processes rather then the response of vegetation to these large-scale climatic events.     

Detecting anomalous CO2 flux using space borne spectroscopy

Over the time-scale, earth's atmospheric CO₂ concentration has varied and that is mostly determined by balance among the geochemical processes including burial of organic carbon in sediments, silicate rock weathering and volcanic activity. The best recorded atmospheric CO₂ variability is derived from Vostok ice core that records last four glacial/interglacial cycles. The present CO₂ concentration of earth's atmosphere has exceeded far that it was predicted from the ice core data. Other than rapid industrialization and urbanization since last century, geo-natural hazards such as volcanic activity, leakage from hydrocarbon reservoirs and spontaneous combustion of coal contribute a considerable amount of CO₂ to the atmosphere. Spontaneous combustion of coal is common occurrence in most coal producing countries and sometimes it could be in an enormous scale. Remote sensing has already proved to be a significant tool in coalfire identification and monitoring studies. However, coalfire related CO₂ quantification from remote sensing data has not endeavoured yet by scientific communities because of low spectral resolution of commercially available remote sensing data and relatively sparse CO₂ plume than other geological hazards like volcanic activity. The present research has attempted two methods to identify the CO₂ flux emitted from coalfires in a coalmining region in north China. Firstly, a band rationing method was used for column atmospheric retrieval of CO₂ and secondly atmospheric models were simulated in fast atmospheric signature code (FASCOD) to understand the local radiation transport and then the model was implemented with the inputs from hyperspectral remote sensing data. It was observed that retrieval of columnar abundance of CO₂ with the band rationing method is faster as less simulation required in FASCOD. Alternatively, the inversion model could retrieve CO₂ concentration from a (certain) source because it excludes the uncertainties in the higher altitude.     

The potential impact of climate change on Australia's soil organic carbon resources

Background  

Soil organic carbon (SOC) represents a significant pool of carbon within the biosphere. Climatic shifts in temperature and precipitation have a major influence on the decomposition and amount of SOC stored within an ecosystem and that released into the atmosphere. We have linked net primary production (NPP) algorithms, which include the impact of enhanced atmospheric CO₂ on plant growth, to the SOCRATES terrestrial carbon model to estimate changes in SOC for the Australia continent between the years 1990 and 2100 in response to climate changes generated by the CSIRO Mark 2 Global Circulation Model (GCM).     

大气CO2浓度卫星遥感进展

大气CO2是重要的温室气体,CO2浓度及其空间分布是全球气候变化评估中的主要不确定性因素之一。从1998年以来,卫星遥感大气CO2成为获取全球CO2的重要手段。本文阐述了现阶段大气CO2浓度卫星遥感反演进展情况,包括CO2探测载荷、反演算法和算法验证等。同时,论文详细介绍了近红外波段和热红外波段的反演算法特点和不确定因素,并针对CO2反演应用需求提出了展望。     

Analysis of the Seasonal Variation of CO<Subscript>2</Subscript> Concentration in China Based on GOSAT Satellite Data

Carbon dioxide (CO₂) is one of the major gases that contribute to the global warming. Therefore, studying the distribution of CO₂ can help people understand the carbon cycle. Based on the GOSAT retrieved CO₂ products, the temporal and spatial distribution and seasonal variation of CO₂ concentration were analyzed from 2011 to 2015. CO₂ concentration has obvious seasonal variation. It was low in summer, and was high in spring, and the annual increase was about 2 ppm. Nevertheless, the annual growth rate of CO₂ concentration in summer was higher than that in spring, it was 0.5425% in summer and was 0.46% in spring. CO₂ concentration was low in the northwest and was high in the southeast. The growth rate of CO₂ was 2.8 ppm in the northwest and was 3.42 ppm in the southeast. More human’s activities made CO₂ concentration higher in the southeast than that in other regions.     

Global carbon dioxide removal rates from forest landscape restoration activities

Background

Forest landscape restoration (FLR) has been adopted by governments and practitioners across the globe to mitigate and adapt to climate change and restore ecological functions across degraded landscapes. However, the extent to which these activities capture CO₂ with associated climate mitigation impacts are poorly known, especially in geographies where data on biomass growth of restored forests are limited or do not exist. To fill this gap, we developed biomass accumulation rates for a set of FLR activities (natural regeneration, planted forests and woodlots, agroforestry, and mangrove restoration) across the globe and global CO₂ removal rates with corresponding confidence intervals, grouped by FLR activity and region/climate.

Results

Planted forests and woodlots were found to have the highest CO₂ removal rates, ranging from 4.5 to 40.7 t CO² ha^?1 year^?1 during the first 20 years of growth. Mangrove tree restoration was the second most efficient FLR at removing CO₂, with growth rates up to 23.1 t CO₂ ha^?1 year^?1 the first 20 years post restoration. Natural regeneration removal rates were 9.1–18.8 t CO₂ ha^?1 year^?1 during the first 20 years of forest regeneration, followed by agroforestry, the FLR category with the lowest and regionally broad removal rates (10.8–15.6 t CO₂ ha^?1 year^?1). Biomass growth data was most abundant and widely distributed across the world for planted forests and natural regeneration, representing 45% and 32% of all the data points assessed, respectively. Agroforestry studies, were only found in Africa, Asia, and the Latin America and Caribbean regions.

Conclusion

This study represents the most comprehensive review of published literature on tree growth and CO₂ removals to date, which we operationalized by constructing removal rates for specific FLR activities across the globe. These rates can easily be applied by practitioners and decision-makers seeking to better understand the positive climate mitigation impacts of existing or planned FLR actions, or by countries making restoration pledges under the Bonn Challenge Commitments or fulfilling Nationally Determined Contributions to the UNFCCC, thereby helping boost FLR efforts world-wide.

     

Quantification of LST and CO2 levels using Landsat-8 thermal bands on urban environment

Land surface temperature (LST) is an important aspect in global to regional change studies, for control of climate change and balancing of high temperature. Urbanization is one of the influencing factors increasing land surface and atmospheric temperature, by the emission of greenhouse gases (e.g. CO₂, NO and methane). In the present study, LST was derived from Landsat-8 of multitemporal data sets to analyse the spatial structure of the urban thermal environment in relation to the urban surface characteristics and land use–land cover (LULC). LST is influenced by the greenhouse gases i.e. CO₂ plays an important role in increasing the earth’s surface temperature. In order to provide the evidence of influence of CO₂ on LST, the relationship between LST, air temperature and CO₂ was analysed. Landsat-8 satellite has two thermal bands, 10 and 11. These bands were used to accurately to calculate the temperature over the study area. Results showed that the strength of correlation between ground monitoring data and satellite data was high. Based on correlation values of each month April (R² = 0.994), May (R² = 0.297) and June (R² = 0.934), observed results show that band 10 was significantly correlating with air temperature. Relationship between LST and CO₂ levels were obtained from linear regression analysis. band 11 was correlating significantly with CO₂ values in each of the months April (R² = 0.217), May (R² = 0.914) and June, (R² = 0.934), because band 11 is closer to the 15-micron band of CO₂. From the results, it was observed that band 10 can be used for calculating air temperature and band 11 can be used for estimation of greenhouse gases.     

Projected climate change impact on oceanic acidification

Background  

Anthropogenic CO₂ uptake by the ocean decreases the pH of seawater, leading to an 'acidification' which may have potential detrimental consequences on marine organisms [1]. Ocean warming or circulation alterations induced by climate change has the potential to slowdown the rate of acidification of ocean waters by decreasing the amount of CO₂ uptake by the ocean [2]. However, a recent study showed that climate change affected the decrease in pH insignificantly [3]. Here, we examine the sensitivity of future oceanic acidification to climate change feedbacks within a coupled atmosphere-ocean model and find that ocean warming dominates the climate change feedbacks.     

CO2 concentration and its spatiotemporal variation in the troposphere using multi-sensor satellite data,carbon tracker,and aircraft observations

Satellite-based atmospheric CO₂ observations have provided a great opportunity to improve our understanding of the global carbon cycle. However, thermal infrared (TIR)-based satellite observations, which are useful for the investigation of vertical distribution and the transport of CO₂, have not yet been studied as much as the column amount products derived from shortwave infrared data. In this study, TIR-based satellite CO₂ products – from Atmospheric Infrared Sounder, Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES), and Thermal And Near infrared Sensor for carbon Observation – and carbon tracker mole fraction data were compared with in situ Comprehensive Observation Network for Trace gases by AIrLiner (CONTRAIL) data for different locations. The TES CO₂ product showed the best agreement with CONTRAIL CO₂ data resulting in R² ~ 0.87 and root-mean-square error ~0.9. The vertical distribution of CO₂ derived by TES strongly depends on the geophysical characteristics of an area. Two different climate regions (i.e., southeastern Japan and southeastern Australia) were examined in terms of the vertical distribution and transport of CO₂. Results show that while vertical distribution of CO₂ around southeastern Japan was mainly controlled by horizontal and vertical winds, horizontal wind might be a major factor to control the CO₂ transport around southeastern Australia. In addition, the vertical transport of CO₂ also varies by region, which is mainly controlled by anthropogenic CO₂, and horizontal and omega winds. This study improves our understanding of vertical distribution and the transport of CO₂, both of which vary by region, using TIR-based satellite CO₂ observations and meteorological variables.     

Contribution of forest wood products to negative emissions: historical comparative analysis from 1960 to 2015 in Norway,Sweden and Finland

Background

Forests and forest products can significantly contribute to climate change mitigation by stabilizing and even potentially decreasing the concentration of carbon dioxide (CO₂) in the atmosphere. Harvested wood products (HWP) represent a common widespread and cost-efficient opportunity for negative emissions. After harvest, a significant fraction of the wood remains stored in HWPs for a period that can vary from some months to many decades, whereas atmospheric carbon (C) is immediately sequestered by vegetation re-growth. This temporal mismatch between oxidation of HWPs and C uptake by vegetation generates a net sink that lasts over time. The role of temporary carbon storage in forest products has been analysed and debated in the scientific literature, but detailed bottom-up studies mapping the fate of harvested materials and quantifying the associated emission profiles at national scales are rare. In this work, we quantify the net CO₂ emissions and the temporary carbon storage in forest products in Norway, Sweden and Finland for the period 1960–2015, and investigate their correlation. We use a Chi square probability distribution to model the oxidation rate of C over time in HWPs, taking into consideration specific half-lives of each category of products. We model the forest regrowth and estimate the time-distributed C removal. We also integrate the specific HWP flows with an emission inventory database to quantify the associated life-cycle emissions of fossil CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O.

Results

We find that assuming an instantaneous oxidation of HWPs would overestimate emissions of about 1.18 billion t CO₂ (cumulative values for the three countries over the period 1960–2015).We also find that about 40 years after 1960, the starting year of our analysis, are sufficient to detect signs of negative emissions. The total amount of net CO₂ emissions achieved in 2015 are about ??3.8 million t CO₂, ??27.9 t CO₂ and ??43.6 t CO₂ in Norway, Sweden, and Finland, respectively.

Conclusion

We argue for a more explicit accounting of the actual emission rates from HWPs in carbon balance studies and climate impact analysis of forestry systems and products, and a more transparent inclusion of the potential of HWP as negative emissions in perspective studies and scenarios. Simply assuming that all harvested carbon is instantaneously oxidized can lead to large biases and ultimately overlook the benefits of negative emissions of HWPs.