Total Solar Irradiance Measurement and Modelling during Cycle 23

During solar cycle 23, which is now close to its end, variations of the total solar irradiance were measured by six different instruments, providing four independent time series of the irradiance variation over the complete solar cycle. A new composite time series constructed using five of these six instruments provides unprecedented instrument stability for the study of the open question of solar irradiance variations between minima. An independent analysis of the different composite time series is performed through an empirical proxy model fit. The new composite is fitted with 0.96 correlation (R ²=93%) and RMS error of 0.15 W m⁻², thus reaching the limit of the individual instrument stabilities. Both the measurements and the model indicate that for the current cycle the minimum irradiance level has not yet been reached. Therefore we use the model to extrapolate measurements up to 2008 when the minimum irradiance level is expected. If we assume that there will be no changes in the solar irradiance from 2006 to 2008 that are not captured by the regression model, it can be predicted that there will be no variation of the solar minimum irradiance level during cycle 23 with an uncertainty of ±0.14 W m⁻².     

Periodicity of Total Solar Irradiance

We investigate the periodicity in the PMOD composite of the daily total solar irradiance (TSI) from 21 September 1978 to 9 June 2009. Besides the Schwabe cycle period (10.32 years), the quasi-rotation period is found to be statistically significant in TSI, whose value is about 32 days, longer than that in sunspot activity (27 days), and it intermittently appears around the sunspot maximum times. The quasi-rotation period in TSI is inferred to be mainly caused by sunspot activity, but to be modulated by bright features as well. It was previously found that variations of TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle mainly come from the combination of the sunspots’ blocking and the intensification due to bright faculae, plages, and network elements, with a slight dominance of the bright-feature effect during the maximum of the Schwabe cycle. For the sunspot-blocking and the bright-feature effect to contribute to TSI over a Schwabe solar cycle, the former is inferred to lead the latter by 29 days at least.     

Sources of Solar Total Irradiance Variations

The daily images and magnetograms acquired by MDI are a rich source of information about the contributions of different types of solar regions to variations in the total solar irradiance (TSI). These data have been used to determine the temporal variation of the MDI irradiance, the mean intensity of the solar disk in the continuum at 676.8 nm. The short-term (days to weeks) variations of the MDI irradiance and TSI are in excellent agreement with rms differences of 0.011%. This indicates that MDI irradiance is an excellent proxy for short-term variations of TSI from the competing irradiance contributions of regions causing irradiance increases, such as plages and bright network, and regions causing irradiance decreases, such as sunspots. However, the long-term or solar cycle variation of the MDI proxy and TSI differ over the 11-year period studied. The results indicate that the primary sources of the long-term (several months or more) variations in TSI are regions with magnetic fields between about 80 and 600 G. The results also suggest that the difference in the long-term variations of the MDI proxy and TSI is due to a component of TSI associated with sectors of the solar spectrum where the contrast in intensity between plages and the quiet Sun is enhanced (e.g., the UV) compared to the MDI proxy. This is evidence that the long-term variation of TSI is due primarily to solar cycle variations of the irradiance from these portions of solar spectrum, a finding consistent with modeling calculations indicating that approximately 60% of the change in TSI between solar minimum and maximum is produced by the UV part of the spectrum shortward of 400 nm (Solanki and Krivova, Space Sci. Rev. 125, 53, 2006).     

Evolutionary Characteristics of Total Solar Irradiance

The significant periods of total solar irradiance are 35 d and 26 d in the 23rd and 24th solar activity cycles, respectively. It is inferred that the solar quasi-rotation periods are also 35 d and 26 d in the 23rd and 24th solar activity cycles, respectively. The value of total solar irradiance around the 24th solar activity minimum may be close to the value of Maunder minimum. On the timescales from one solar rotation period to several months, sunspots are the main reason to cause the variation of total solar irradiance, but not the unique one, and the variation of total solar irradiance are not correlated with the Mg II index on the timescales from a few days to one solar rotation period.     

Total Solar Irradiance and the Fe XIV Corona

Analyzing daily values of the total solar irradiance (TSI), the coronal index of solar activity (CI), and the Mg II 280-nm core-to-wing ratio (Mg II index), we have found that the temporal variations of these indices are very similar to each other during the period from 1978 to 2005. The correlation between CI and TSI, with the PSI correction lying within the interval under study, has been found to be 0.699, which is very close to the value of 0.703 of the correlation between Mg II and TSI for 27-day averages (the CI – Mg correlation is 0.824). The regression equation between CI and TSI is almost linear, except for TSI depletions when a large number of sunspots are present on the visible disk. By employing CI, an extrapolation of TSI back to 1947 is presented.     

ACRIM3 and the Total Solar Irradiance database

The effects of scattering and diffraction on the observations of the ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 satellite TSI monitoring mission have been characterized by the preflight calibration approach for satellite total solar irradiance (TSI) sensors implemented at the LASP/TRF (Laboratory for Atmospheric and Space Physics/Total Solar Irradiance Radiometer Facility). The TRF also calibrates the SI (International System of units) traceability to the NIST (National Institute of Standards and Technology) cryo-radiometric scale. ACRIM3’s self-calibration agrees with NIST to within the uncertainty of the test procedure (～500 ppm). A correction of ～5000 ppm was found for scattering and diffraction that has significantly reduced the scale difference between the results of the ACRIMSAT/ACRIM3 and SORCE/TIM satellite experiments. Algorithm updates reflecting more than 10 years of mission experience have been made that further improve the ACRIM3 results by eliminating some thermally driven signal and increasing the signal to noise ratio. The result of these changes is a more precise and detailed picture of TSI variability. Comparison of the results from the ACRIM3, SORCE/TIM and SOHO/VIRGO satellite experiments demonstrate the near identical detection of TSI variability on all sub-annual temporal and amplitude scales during the TIM mission. The largest occurs at the rotational period of the primary solar activity longitudes. On the decadal timescale, while ACRIM3 and VIRGO results exhibit close agreement throughout, TIM exhibits a consistent 500 ppm upward trend relative to ACRIM3 and VIRGO. A solar magnetic activity area proxy for TSI has been used to demonstrate that the ACRIM TSI composite and its +0.037 %/decade TSI trend during solar cycles 21–23 is the most likely correct representation of the extant satellite TSI database. The occurrence of this trend during the last decades of the 20th century supports a more robust contribution of TSI variation to detected global temperature increase during this period than predicted by current climate models.     

太阳总辐照的演化特征分析

太阳总辐照在23和24太阳活动周的显著周期分别为35 d和26 d,进而推断太阳的准旋转周期在23和24太阳活动周也分别为35 d和26 d.太阳总辐照在24周极小期的值可能与蒙德极小期的值相近.在一个太阳旋转周到几个月的时间尺度上,太阳黑子是引起太阳总辐照变化的主要原因,但不是唯一的原因;在几天到一个太阳旋转周的时间尺度上,太阳总辐照的变化与MgⅡ特征指数是不相关的.     

太阳辐照的观测研究进展

太阳总辐照是指在地球大气层顶接收到的太阳总辐射照度,也叫"太阳常数",但它实际上并非常数。太阳总辐照随波长的分布即为太阳分光辐照。太阳辐照变化的研究,对理解太阳表面及内部活动的物理过程、机制,研究地球大气、日地关系,解决人类面临的全球气候变暖的挑战等,都具有重要意义。首先简单介绍了太阳辐照,回顾了太阳辐照的空间观测;接着介绍了观测数据的并合,以及对合成数据的一些研究;然后讨论了太阳辐照变化的原因,简述了太阳总辐照的重构及其在气候研究上的一些应用,并进行必要的评论;最后对未来的研究方向提出了一些看法。     

Estimating Long-Term Solar Irradiance Variability: A New Approach

The detection of solar irradiance variations (both bolometric and at various wavelengths) by satellite-based experiments during the last one-and-a-half decades stimulated modeling efforts to help identify their causes and to provide estimates of irradiance data for those time intervals when no satellite observations exist. In this paper we present estimates of the long-term irradiance changes developed with Fourier and wavelet transforms. The month-to-month irradiance variations, after removing the solar cycle related long-term changes, are studied with the cross-correlation technique. Results of the analysis reveal a significant phase shift at 3 months between the full-disk magnetic field strength and total solar and UV irradiance, with irradiance leading the magnetic field variability. In addition to this time delay between the changes in solar irradiance and the magnetic field, a 10-month phase shift has been found between the UV flux at 280 nm and total solar irradiance corrected for sunspot darkening. The existence of these phase shifts suggests the possibility of a coupling between the physical processes taking place below, in, and above the photosphere.     

Solar Total Irradiance: A Reference Value for Solar Minimum

Simultaneous solar total irradiance observations performed by absolute radiometers on board satellites during the quiet-Sun period between solar cycles 21 and 22 (1985–1987), are analyzed to determine the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for the solar minimum. During the quiet-Sun period the total solar irradiance, UV irradiance, and the various solar activity indices show very little fluctuation. However, the absolute value of the solar total irradiance derived from the observations differ within the accuracy of the radiometers used in the measurements. Therefore, the question often arises about a reference value of the solar total irradiance for use in climate models and for computation of geophysical, and atmospheric parameters. This research is conducted as a part of the Solar Electromagnetic Radiation Study for Solar Cycle 22 (SOLERS22). On the basis of the study we recommended a reference value of 1367.0 ± 0.04 W m^-2 for the solar total irradiance at 1 AU for a truly quiet Sun. We also find that the total solar irradiance data for the quiet-Sun period reveals strong short-term irradiance variations.     

Solar Magnetic Activity and Total Irradiance Since the Maunder Minimum

We develop a model for estimating solar total irradiance since 1600 AD using the sunspot number record as input, since this is the only intrinsic record of solar activity extending back far enough in time. Sunspot number is strongly correlated, albeit nonlinearly with the 10.7-cm radio flux (F _10.7), which forms a continuous record back to 1947. This enables the nonlinear relationship to be estimated with usable accuracy and shows that relationship to be consistent over multiple solar activity cycles. From the sunspot number record we estimate F _10.7 values back to 1600 AD. F _10.7 is linearly correlated with the total amount of magnetic flux in active regions, and we use it as input to a simple cascade model for the other magnetic flux components. The irradiance record is estimated by using these magnetic flux components plus a very rudimentary model for the modulation of energy flow to the photosphere by the subphotospheric magnetic flux reservoir feeding the photospheric magnetic structures. Including a Monte Carlo analysis of the consequences of measurement and fitting errors, the model indicates the mean irradiance during the Maunder Minimum was about 1 ± 0.4 W m⁻² lower than the mean irradiance over the last solar activity cycle.     

Total Solar Irradiance Variation During Rapid Sunspot Growth

Large sunspot areas correspond to dips in the total solar irradiance (TSI), a phenomenon associated with the local suppression of convective energy transport in the spot region. This results in a strong correlation between sunspot area and TSI. During the growth phase of a sunspot other physics may affect this correlation; if the physical growth of the sunspot resulted in surface flows affecting the temperature, for example, we might expect to see an anomalous variation in TSI. In this paper we study NOAA active region 8179, in which large sunspots suddenly appeared near disk center, at a time (March 1998) when few competing sunspots or plage regions were present on the visible hemisphere. We find that the area/TSI correlation does not significantly differ from the expected pattern of correlation, a result consistent with a large thermal conductivity in solar convection zone. In addition we have searched for a smaller-scale effect by analyzing white-light images from MDI (the Michelson Doppler Imager) on SOHO. A representative upper-limit energy consistent with the images is on the order of 3×10³¹ ergs, assuming the time scale of the actual spot area growth. This is of the same order of magnitude as the buoyant energy of the spot emergence even if it is shallow. We suggest that detailed image analyses of sunspot growth may therefore show `transient bright rings' at a detectable level.     

大黑子群对太阳总辐照度的影响

本文用云南天文台在第２２周太阳活动峰年期间拍摄到的大太阳黑子群照相资料，太阳黑子目视描述资料，以及Ｎｉｍｂｕｓ—７卫星上辐射计测量的太阳总辐照度，分别计算了太阳总辐射照度与大黑子群的本影视面积，大黑子群全群视面积和日面上全部黑子的总视面积的相关系数。结果表明，太阳总辐射照度与这三种视面积均存在强的负相关。其中与大黑子群本影视面积的相关最强，其次是与全群视面积的相关，最后是与日面上全部黑子的总视面积的相关。并对以上结果和其它有关结果进行了分析和讨论。     

Effect of Large-Scale Magnetic Fields on Total Solar Irradiance

The effect of large-scale magnetic fields on total solar irradiance (TSI) was studied both in time–frequency and in time–longitude aspects. A continuous wavelet analysis revealed that the energy of thermomagnetic disturbances due to sunspots and faculae cascades into the magnetic network and facular macrostructure. A numerical technique of time–longitude analysis was developed to study the fine structure of temporal changes in the TSI caused by longitudinal brightness inhomogeneities and rotation of the Sun. The analysis facilitates mapping large-scale thermal inhomogeneities of the Sun and reveals patterns of radiative excesses and deficits relative to the undisturbed solar photosphere. These patterns are organized into 2- and 4-sector structures that exhibit the effects of both activity complexes and magnetically active longitudes. Large-scale patterns with radiative excess display a facular macrostructure and bright patterns in the magnetic network caused by the dissipation of large-scale thermomagnetic disturbances. Similar global-scale temperature patterns were found in the upper solar atmosphere. These temperature patterns are also causally related to long-lived magnetic fields of the Sun. During activity cycles 21–23 the patterns with radiative excess tend to be concentrated around the active longitudes which are centered at about 60° and 230° in the Carrington system.     

Solar Irradiance Variations: From Current Measurements to Long-Term Estimates

Variations of solar total and spectral irradiance are prime solar quantities purported to have an influence on the Earth’s climate. Quantitative estimates of irradiance over as long a time as possible are needed to judge their effectiveness in forcing the climate. In order to do this reliably, first the measured record must be reproduced and a feeling for the physics underlying the irradiance variations must be developed. With the help of this knowledge combined with the available proxy data, reconstructions of irradiance in the past, generally since the Maunder minimum, are attempted. Here a brief introduction to some of the irradiance reconstruction work aiming at irradiance on time scales of days to the solar cycle is given, followed by a brief and incomplete overview of the longer-term reconstructions.     

Quiet Sun Contribution to Variations in the Total Solar Irradiance

An analysis of spatially-resolved measurements of the intensity of the photospheric continuum by the Michelson Doppler Imager (MDI) on the SOHO spacecraft indicates that these data can be used to study variations of the Total Solar Irradiance (TSI). Since the techniques employed depend upon ratios of intensities measured by MDI, they are independent of the absolute photometric calibration of the instrument. The results suggest that, while it is possible to account for short-term (weeks to months) variation in TSI by variations in the irradiance contributions of regions with enhanced magnetic fields (larger than ten G as measured by MDI), the longer-term variations are influenced significantly by variations in the brightness of the quiet Sun, defined here as regions with magnetic field magnitudes smaller than ten G. The latter regions cover a substantial fraction of the solar surface, ranging from approximately 90% of the Sun near solar minimum to 70% near solar maximum. The results provide evidence that a substantial fraction, 50% or more, of the longer term (≥one year) variation in TSI is due to changes in the brightness of the quiet Sun.     

Modeling Solar Spectral Irradiance and Total Magnetic Flux Using Sunspot Areas

We show that daily sunspot areas can be used in a simple, single parameter model to reconstruct daily variations in several other solar parameters, including solar spectral irradiance and total magnetic flux. The model assumes that changes in any given parameter can be treated mathematically as the response of the system to the emergence of a sunspot. Using cotemporal observational data, we compute the finite impulse response (FIR) function that describes that response in detail, and show that the response function has been approximately stationary over the time period for which data exist. For each parameter, the impulse response function describes the physical evolution of that part of a solar active region that is the source of the measured variability. We show that the impulse response functions are relatively narrow functions, no more than 3 years wide overall. Each exhibits a pre-active, active, and post-active region component; the active region component dominates the variability of most of the parameters studied.     

Correlation Between the Sunspot Number,the Total Solar Irradiance,and the Terrestrial Insolation

Our study deals with the correlations between the solar activity on the one hand and the solar irradiance above the Earth’s atmosphere and at ground level on the other. We analyzed the combined ACRIM I+II time series of the total solar irradiance (TSI), the Mauna Loa time series of terrestrial insolation data, and data of terrestrial cosmic ray fluxes. We find that the correlation between the TSI and the sunspot number is strongly non-linear. We interpret this as the net balance between brightening by faculae and darkening by sunspots where faculae dominate at low activity and sunspots dominate at high activity. Such a behavior is hitherto known from stellar analogs of the Sun in a statistical manner. We perform the same analysis for the Mauna Loa data of terrestrial insolation. Here we find that the linear relation between sunspot number and insolation shows more than 1% rise in insolation by sunspot number variations which is much stronger than for the TSI. Our conclusion is that the Earth atmosphere acts as an amplifier between space and ground, and that the amplification is probably controlled by solar activity. We suspect the cosmic rays intensity as the link between solar activity and atmospheric transparency. A Fourier analysis of the time series of insolation shows three dominant peaks: 10.5, 20.4, and 14.0 years. As a matter of fact, the cosmic rays data show the same pattern of significant peaks: 10.7, 22.4, and 14.9 years. This analogy supports our idea that the cosmic rays variation has influence on the transparency of the Earth atmosphere.     

SOVAP/Picard,a Spaceborne Radiometer to Measure the Total Solar Irradiance

The Picard spacecraft was successfully launched on 15 June 2010, into a Sun-synchronous orbit. The mission represents one of the European contributions to solar observations and Essential Climate Variables (ECVs) measurements. The payload is composed of a Solar Diameter Imager and Surface Mapper (SODISM) and two radiometers: SOlar VAriability Picard (SOVAP) and PREcision MOnitor Sensor (PREMOS). SOVAP, a dual side-by-side cavity radiometer, measures the total solar irradiance (TSI). It is the sixth of a series of differential absolute-radiometer-type instruments developed and operated in space by the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium. The measurements of SOVAP in the summer of 2010 yielded a TSI value of 1362.1 W?m^?2 with an uncertainty of ±?2.4 W?m^?2 (k=1). During the periods of November 2010 and January 2013, the amplitude of the changes in TSI has been on the order of 0.18 %, corresponding to a range of about 2.4 W?m^?2.     

Modeling Total Solar Irradiance Variations Using Automated Classification Software on Mount Wilson Data

We present the results using the AutoClass analysis application available at NASA/Ames Intelligent Systems Div. (2002) which is a Bayesian, finite mixture model classification system developed by Cheeseman and Stutz (1996). We apply this system to Mount Wilson Solar Observatory (MWO) intensity and magnetogram images and classify individual pixels on the solar surface to calculate daily indices that are then correlated with total solar irradiance (TSI) to yield a set of regression coefficients. This approach allows us to model the TSI with a correlation of better than 0.96 for the period 1996 to 2007. These regression coefficients applied to classified pixels on the observed solar surface allow the construction of images of the Sun as it would be seen by TSI measuring instruments like the Solar Bolometric Imager recently flown by Foukal et al. (Astrophys. J. 611, L57, 2004). As a consequence of the very high correlation we achieve in reproducing the TSI record, our approach holds out the possibility of creating an on-going, accurate, independent estimate of TSI variations from ground-based observations which could be used to compare, and identify the sources of disagreement among, TSI observations from the various satellite instruments and to fill in gaps in the satellite record. Further, our spatially-resolved images should assist in characterizing the particular solar surface regions associated with TSI variations. Also, since the particular set of MWO data on which this analysis is based is available on a daily basis back to at least 1985, and on an intermittent basis before then, it will be possible to estimate the TSI emission due to identified solar surface features at several solar minima to constrain the role surface magnetic effects have on long-term trends in solar energy output.