韵律与长期天气预报

本文讨论了对长期天气预报比较重要的韵律问题,共有三部分内容:(1)分析广大台站在相关普查中发现的隔季相关现象,相关间隔自2个月到11个月不等,其中大约半年左右的比较常见,并且地理分布区域性强,大洋上最明显,指出这是韵律现象。 (2)月平均环流与海温的相似性分析表明,北半球环流与海温都存在着隔季相似性。例如,春或夏海温距平相似时,大约6个月之后又相似。而秋冬春三季大气环流的相似容易造成夏季大气环流的相似。指出这是大气环流与海洋的韵律活动的表现。 (3)讨论了两种可能的韵律形成过程,一种是北太平洋西风漂流区夏季海温通过韵律关系影响半年后的冬季海温,从而影响大气环流和天气。另一种是冬季低纬东太平洋海温与大气环流相互作用,通过韵律关系影响半年之后夏季低纬太平洋的环流,从而影响西太平洋副高及我国天气。     

Theory And Measurements For Turbulence Spectra And Variances In The Atmospheric Neutral Surface Layer

Predictions from a new theory for high Reynolds number turbulent boundary layers during near-neutral conditions are shown to agree well with measurements of atmospheric surface-layer variances and spectra. The theory suggests surface-layer turbulence is determined by detached eddies that largely originate in the shearing motion immediately above the surface layer; as they descend into this layer, they are strongly distorted by the local shear and impinge onto the surface. Because the origin of these eddies is non-local, they are similar to those described in previous studies as `inactive' turbulence. However, they are, in fact, dynamically highly active, supplying the major mechanism for the momentum transport, including upward bursting on the time scale of the larger eddies. The vertical velocity results show that the variance and the low frequency parts of spectra increase with height in the surface layer, while in the self similar (k₁ ^-1) range the streamwise low frequency components are approximately constant with height. These large-scale longitudinal eddies extend to a length _s, which is equal to the boundary-layer height near the surface andincreases linearly to a maximum of about three times the boundary-layer height at roughly 15 m and decreases in the upper parts of the surface layer. This lower part of the surface layer, the eddy surface layer, is the region in which the eddies impinging from layers above are strongly distorted. This new result for the atmospheric boundary layer has practical application for calculating fluctuating wind loads on structures and lateral dispersion of pollution from local sources.     

Air—Surface Turbulent Heat Exchange in the Antarctic Coastal Zone Derived from Instrumental Observations

The results of direct measurements of turbulent fluxes at Bellingshausen station (the Antarctic) in the summer of 2002, 2003, 2007, and 2009 are considered. The features of energy exchange are studied for these seasons. The interannual and intraseasonal variability of energy exchange characteristics is investigated. It is found that heat fluxes depend on the surface state and on the wind direction. Also, as a rule, they have a clear diurnal course with negative or near-zero values at night and with positive values in the daytime, when intensive convective fluxes are observed over open ground. The momentum flux is defined by the wind direction and wind speed and by stratification conditions. The main factors affecting energy exchange between the atmosphere and the surface in the Antarctic coastal zone are synoptic conditions and the surface state (snowless season duration and moss cover presence).     

Review of Lagrangian stochastic models for trajectories in the turbulent atmosphere

We review the theoretical basis for, and the advantages of, random flight models for the trajectories of tracer particles in turbulence. We then survey their application to calculate dispersion in the principal types of atmospheric turbulence (stratified, vertically-inhomogeneous, Gaussian or non-Gaussian turbulence in the surface layer and above), and show that they are especially suitable for some problems (e.g., quantifying ground emissions).     

A parameterization of the stable atmospheric boundary layer

Two formulations of the stable atmospheric boundary layer are proposed for use in weather forecasting or climate models. They feature the log-linear profile near the surface, but are free from the associated critical Richardson number. The diffusion coefficients in the Ekman layer are a natural extension of the surface layer. They are locally determined using wind shear in one case and turbulent kinetic energy in the other. The parameterizations are tested in a one-dimensional model simulating the evolution of the nocturnal boundary layer with and without radiative cooling. Both formulations give very similar results, except near the top of the boundary layer where the transition to the free atmosphere is smoother with the wind shear formulation. A distinctive feature of these schemes is that they retain their simulating skill when resolution is reduced. This is verified for a wide range of situations. In practice, this means that there is no need for a large-scale model to have a level below 50 m or so.     

青藏高原中部闪电活动与相关气象要素季节变化的相关分析

利用 1995年 4月至 2 0 0 2年 12月间卫星观测的闪电资料与NCEP再分析资料中的地表降水率、云功函数和热通量 ,分析了青藏高原中部闪电活动与相关气象要素季节变化之间的关系。研究发现 :青藏高原中部闪电活动的峰值出现在 7月份 ,并在春季表现出明显的闪电活动 ;相关气象要素中 ,最能够准确描述闪电活动的季节变化及其春季异常特征的仅有地表总热通量 ;降水 (或云功函数 )与鲍恩比 (感热通量和潜热通量之比 )的乘积能够较好地反映闪电活动的季节分布特征与春季的“异常”。结果表明 ,感热通量或鲍恩比可能在对流有效位能向对流上升动能的转化过程中起着重要的作用 ,鲍恩比可作为修正闪电产生效率的一个重要参量。     

对流涡度矢量和湿涡度矢量在暴雨诊断分析中的应用研究

利用对流涡度矢量(CVV, (ζa×θe)/ρ)和湿涡度矢量(MVV, (ζa×θv)/ρ)对华北地区一次大范围的大到暴雨天气过程进行了诊断研究.结果表明,CVV和MVV垂直分量与云和降水密切相关,暴雨区区域平均和垂直积分的CVV和MVV垂直分量与云中水凝物混合比的相关系数分别为0.92和0.95,与降水率的相关系数分别为0.71和0.47.云中水凝物分为液态水凝物和固态水凝物,虽然同态水凝物的含量相对较少,但它在云的变化中起着更重要的作用.滞后相关分析表明,降水率的峰值到来之前4-5 h云中水凝物含晕最少,降水率的峰值到来之后1-2 h,云中水凝物含量最多.云中水凝物与降水率的滞后相关系数主要是由液态水凝物与降水率的滞后相关系数决定的,只有约1/4的滞后相关系数是由固态水凝物与降水率的滞后相关系数贡献的.CVV和MVV的垂直分量与云中水凝物具有非常好的相关性(同时及滞后),与降水率的相关也较好,可以代表云和对流系统的发展.CVV和MVV垂直分量的局地变化超前降水率3 h左右,可以作为降水发生的先兆,对降水的预报有潜在的意义.CVV垂直分量的局地变化与降水率的相关系数大于MVV垂直分量的局地变化与降水率的相关系数,因此在实际预报中可以利用CVV垂直分量的局地变化来估计未来降水的变化.     

Inversions,and fog,stratus and cumulus formation in warm air over cooler water

Two aspects of convection over oceans are discussed and the following conclusions are derived from theoretical considerations.

1. The air layer over the sea will usually convect even when the water surface is ten degrees or more colder than the initial air temperature.
2. An inversion at stratus cloud tops is created by the stratus, and is not a necessary preexisting condition. Such inversions persist after subsidence evaporates the cloud.
3. Radiation heat exchange does not play an essential role in stratus formation or maintenance, and can either heat or cool the cloud.
4. Dry air convection does not erode inversions at the top of the convecting layer. Examples of soundings are discussed.
5. Fogs are most likely to form at sea where the water is coolest, and need no radiation effects to initiate cooling, or a boost from patches of warmer water, to begin convection.
6. Both stratus cloud growth, and the evaporation of clouds by cloud top entrainment, readjust the vertical structure of the air to leave a constant wet-bulb potential temperature with height.

These conclusions are supported by, firstly, a convective model which has been developed and which shows that vapor-driven convection over the ocean will proceed with zero or negative heat fluxes, at rates which saturate the lowest layer of the atmosphere in a few hours to altitudes of many tens of meters. Secondly, the availability of condensed moisture at the top of the surface layer cools the warmer entrained overlying dry air parcels so that when they descend they are no warmer than the sea surface temperature, and this induces downward moving plumes. This occurs if the wet-bulb potential temperature of the overlying air is less than the sea surface temperature, even if it is ten degrees C, or more, warmer in actual temperature.     

Interaction between Wind and Temperature Fields in the Planetary Boundary Layer for a Spatially Heterogeneous Surface Heat Flux

Interaction between wind and temperature fields in the planetary boundary layerfor a spatially heterogeneous surface heat flux has been investigated using large-eddysimulation. It is shown that a substantial difference exists in the wind and temperaturefields, depending on whether the directions of the background wind and the surfaceheat flux variation are parallel or perpendicular.When they are parallel to each other, two-dimensional plumes induced by theheterogeneous surface heat flux are easily destroyed by the background wind,and the velocity field is strongly modified by convective eddies compared tothe case when they are perpendicular to each other. This leads to a substantialdifference in the profiles of turbulent kinetic energy and its flux.It also results in a difference between the two cases in the bulk properties of theplanetary boundary layer, such as the entrainment at the top of the planetary boundarylayer and the drag at the bottom, which have important implications for boundary-layermodelling. The difference between the two cases exists even when the background windspeed is as large as 15.0 m s^-1. Meanwhile, the contrast between two cases is weakened by the Coriolis force.     

利用多角度POLDER偏振资料实现陆地上空大气气溶胶光学厚度和地表反照率的同时反演 I. 理论与模拟

陆地上空标量辐射对地表反射率和大气气溶胶散射都具有很强的敏感性,而偏振反射只对大气气溶胶敏感,对地表不敏感。根据这个原理并结合POLDER(POLarization and Directionality of Earth Reflectance)资料的特点,作者提出综合利用标量辐射和偏振反射信息来实现陆地上空大气气溶胶和地表反照率的同时反演。首先,利用多角度偏振辐射观测提取大气气溶胶光学参数,再利用标量辐射测量对偏振反演结果作进一步筛选和订正,同时获得地表反射率。数值模拟试验结果证明,仅利用偏振信息只能获取大气气溶胶信息,而且其结果误差较大,特别是对于散射作用较强的短波长通道如670 nm误差更大,但经过标量辐射订正后的结果得到明显改善,气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率与真实值之间相关系数都达到0.99以上。为提高查找表的计算效率,提出并建立了反演方案所需要的半参数化数值表,利用内插方法寻求气溶胶光学厚度和地表反射率的数值解的反演方法。     

地面降水的多源数据辅助质量控制方法

文章在分析气温变化、风速变化、相对湿度、温度露点差、雷达和自动站降雨量差值的基础上,提出了针对自动站观测小时降雨量的多要素综合质量控制方法,包括雷达和自动站相结合的综合检验方法(MRAWS)以及仅使用自动站资料的综合检验方法(MAWS),并与时空一致性检验方法(MTS)进行比较。结果表明:使用多要素的综合检验方法(MRAWS和MAWS)明显优于仅使用降雨量资料的MTS。此外,虽然MAWS检验结果略低于MRAWS,但在缺少雷达探测资料的情况下MAWS可对降雨量数据进行有效检验。进一步地分析表明,MRAWS和MAWS方法仅适用于判别有无降水,对降水量值的正确性判断能力存在不足。     

利用NOAA-AVHRR遥感资料反演长江三角洲地表反照率的试验

利用NOAA－AVHRR的CH1和CH2资料，反演了长江三角洲地区地表反照率瞬时值，与前人给出的不同地面覆盖物反照率进行对比，表明对该地区的反演是可行的。还提出一种由单一时刻反照率推算一天中其他任意时刻反照率的方法，发现方法可靠。最后比较了太阳天顶角和地表状况对地表反照率的影响大小，发现二者量级相当，说明在短时、超短时数值模式中，必须同时考虑二者的作用。     

中国地面月气候资料质量控制方法的研究

由于气象台站信息变化以及观测规范的频繁变动, 使中国地面气象资料序列比较复杂。该文在分析中国地面历史气象资料中可能存在的非均一性和错误性、研究月气候资料序列存在的可能分布状态的基础上, 提出了中国地面月气候资料质量控制技术。通过分析认为, 中国地面月气候资料的质量控制, 应把下列3种方式结合起来, 进行综合质量检测:①把12个月的气候资料序列联合起来, 进行长时间连续性错误资料检测; ②把时间序列变换为接近正态分布的均一序列后, 进行时间域和空间域的奇异值检测; ③对检测出的连续性可疑资料和单个数据点的奇异值进行人工分析辨别。利用上述质量控制方法, 对1971—2000年中国地面700多基准基本站月统计气候资料进行了质量检查, 最后介绍了质量检查结果。     

Electrization and spatial charge separation at the air bubbles exhalation that occurs during the coagulation growth of hail particles in a cloud. Part 1. Kinetics of the bubbles exhalation process caused by increasing temperature of overcooled cloud drops

Kinetics of the air bubbles exhalation process, which occurs in overcooled cloud drops when they hit the hail or graupel particles surface. Analytical relationship between a number of bubbles generated in a drop and their size depending on the degree of overcooling of cloud drops is revealed. It is shown that the air bubbles exhalation, which accompanies the coagulation growth of hail particles, occurs on the principle of “ebullition” of the liquid on the surface of a hail particle.     

Modeling the impact of partial surface mulch on soil heat and water flow

Summary Surface residue is an integral part of many cropping systems, and there are opportunities to optimise its value as mulch by improving our understanding of how it affects the near surface soil physical environment. In this study we use field measurements and a coupled soil heat and water flow model to demonstrate the effects of partial surface mulch on the near surface soil physical environment. The model is based on general physical laws and allows analysis of general system behaviour in response to changes in both inputs and systems variables. The field measurements were obtained on both a clay and a sand soil from experiments carried out in the semi-arid tropics. The treatments included a bare soil surface and 0 (completely mulched), 5 cm and 15 cm bare row zones. Both measurements and simulations showed that partial surface mulch cover can have dramatic effects on the soil physical environment near the soil surface, with the development of very strong horizontal gradients across bare soil—mulched soil boundaries. They also show that bare row zones are able to act as either a source or sink for heat and water, and that the resultant soil environmental conditions will exert strong control of soil biological activity. Although model simulations did not always match exactly with the specific measurements, they did capture the major trends given by the field data. While this suggests a certain robustness about the way the processes are modeled, there are several areas in which the model needs improvement and these are highlighted in the paper.Journal Paper No. J16277 of the Iowa Agricultural Home Economics Experiment Station, Ames, IA.With 9 Figures     

ON THE ICE NUCLEATION BY CONTACT ON THE INNER AND OUTER LAYER OF A WATER DROP*

Nucleation of ice by contact takes place when an aerosol particle collides with a surface of supercooled water drop.Aerosol particle may either bounce off the water surface or be captured on it.McCully et al.(1956) and Rosinski et al.(1963) have shown that capture of hydrophilic particles was four times larger than of hydrophobic ones.Hydrophobic aerosol particles will nucleate ice preferentially during the brief time of contact when they bounce off the surface.     

山地中尺度环流中的大气边界层湍流摩擦效应

建立了一个三维原始方程数值模式，模拟在光滑下边界和无滑脱下边界两种情况下，山区中尺度环流的演变过程，指出在弱层结条件下，边界层湍流摩擦效应有利于流场的分离和涡旋偶极子环流的发展；在强层结条件下，表面摩擦效应削弱了分离气流和涡旋性环流的强度，但使其范围扩大。边界层湍流摩擦效应引起的分离流场和尾流区环流与非粘性动力过程引起的流场分离现象，虽然从其表现形式上看完全相同，但是其形成则是由完全不同的物理机制所控制。边界层湍流摩擦效应在上述两种分离流场的演变过程中表现出完全相反的作用。地转科氏力的调整作用在山地背风坡上促进了气旋性辐合环流的发展，而抑制了反气旋性环流的发展。     

关于业务上应用条件对称不稳定相关问题的讨论

条件对称不稳定（CSI）理论常常被用来作为倾斜对流的发展机制之一,在业务上常用来解释与锋面相联系的一条或多条中尺度雨带、雷达图像上观测到的带状雨带的成因等。条件对称不稳定的诊断包括CSI斜率判据、斜升对流有效位能（SCAPE）、湿对称不稳定（MSI）、相当位涡（EPV）等判据。业务预报人员存疑较多的问题是这些方法是否具有一致性并在业务上如何使用。针对上述问题,首先通过与业务预报人员较熟悉的条件不稳定类型作类比,来说明条件对称不稳定两种判据与条件不稳定两种判据的相似性。但在业务使用上,判别条件对称不稳定时多使用CSI斜率判据,即等动量面的坡度大于等位温面坡度而小于等湿球位温面坡度。由于条件对称不稳定通常出现在大气处于几乎饱和的情况下,此时的CSI斜率判据则演变为湿对称不稳定判据,即等动量面坡度小于等湿球位温面坡度。为判别相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据是否具有一致性,文中的推导和实例分析均表明,二维相当位涡实际上是湿对称不稳定判据的另一种表现形式,但是湿对称不稳定判据需主观去比较等相当位温面与等动量面斜率大小,而二维相当位涡则可通过其是否小于0进行客观判断。需注意的是,在与推导条件对称不稳定斜率判据相同的二维坐标下,相当位涡与湿对称不稳定判据才具有一致性,将相当位涡扩展到常规坐标下使用三维相当位涡作为湿对称不稳定判据是不可取的。      

A Model to Calculate what a Remote Sensor `Sees' of an Urban Surface

Whilst the measurement of radiation emissions from a surface is relativelystraightforward, correct interpretation and proper utilization of the informationrequires that the surface area `seen' be known accurately. This becomes non-trivialwhen the target is an urban surface, due to its complex three-dimensional form andthe different thermal, radiative and moisture properties of its myriad surface facets.The geometric structure creates shade patterns in combination with the solar beamand obscures portions of the surface from the sensor, depending on where it is pointing and its field-of-view (FOV). A model to calculate these surface-sensor-sun relations (SUM) is described. SUM is tested against field and scale model observations, and theoretical calculations, and found to perform well. It can predict the surface area`seen' by a sensor of known FOV pointing in any direction when placed at any pointin space above a specified urban surface structure. Moreover, SUM can predict theview factors of the roof, wall and ground facets `seen' and whether they are sunlit orshaded at any location and time of day. SUM can be used to determine the optimalplacement and orientation of remote sensors to study urban radiation emissions; ifthe facet temperatures are known or modelled it can calculate the average temperatureof the system, and it can determine the directional variation of temperature (anisotropy) due to any particular surface-sensor-sun geometric combination. Thepresent surface geometry used in SUM is relatively simple, but there is scope to makeit increasingly realistic.     

The Dynamical Influence of Land－Sea Contrast and Sea Surface Temperature on Intraseasonal Oscillation in Tropical Atmosphere

An equatorial β-plane model which includes realistic non-uniform land-sea contrast and the underlying surface temperature distribution is used to simulate the 30-60 day oscillation (LFO) processes in tropical atmosphere, with emphasis on its longitude-dependent evolution and convective seesaw between Indian and the western Pacific oceans.The model simulated the twice-amplification of the disturbances over Indian and the western Pacific oceans while they are travelling eastward. It reproduced the dipole structure caused by the out-of-phase oscillation of the active centres in these two areas and the periodical transition between the phases of LFO. It is suggested that the convective seesaw is the result of interaction of the internal dynamics of tropical atmosphere with the zonally non-uniform thermal forcing from underlying surface. The convective activities are suppressed over Indonesia mari-time continents whilst they are favoured over the Indian Ocean and western Pacific warm waters, so there formed two active oscillation centres. The feedback of convection with large-scale flow slows down the propagation of disturb-ances when they are intensifying over these two areas, therefore they manifest a kind of quasi-stationary component to favor the ‘dipole’ structure. Whereas the disturbances weaken and speed up over the eastern Pacific cold water re-gion due to the interaction of sensible heating and evaporation with perturbational wind. Therefore the two major centers just show out-of-phase oscillation during onecycle around the latitudinal beltBy introducing the SST anomalies in El Ni?o and La Ni?a years into the surface temperature, we also show that they have significant influence on LFO processes. In an anomalously warm year, the LFO disturbances dissipate more slowly over the central-eastern Pacific region and can travel farther eastward; whilst in an anomalously cold year, the opposite is true.