中尺度模式质量控制源程存的改进

介绍NCAR/PSU中尺度大气数值模式质量控制的基本原理和技术方法,分析MM4质量控制源程序中存在的问题和不足,并进行优化改进,提高程序的质量控制功能。     

卫星云迹风资料对中尺度数值模式初始风场改进试验

应用GMS-5静止气象卫星云图导出的风场产品-云迹风资料对中尺度η坐标有限区域数值模式(REM)的初始风场进行改进处理．模拟了2001年7月27-28日、28-29日的降水过程，并且与没有云迹风改进的数值模拟的降水结果进行对比分析。研究结果表明．卫星云图导出的云迹风场资料同化到数值模式．从而改善因测站稀疏造成的中小尺度系统漏报的不足．提高降水的预报精度．     

GRAPES中尺度模式中Kain-Fritcsh方案的改进及应用试验

本文对GRAPES_Meso中Kain-Fritcsh eta积云参数化方案进行了三种改进：(1)将原触发机制中的温度扰动分解成由水汽决定的垂直向和水平向温度扰动(KF1方案),(2)在原温度扰动中直接增加一项由相对湿度计算的水汽平流项(KF2方案),(3)在KF1方案中增加用相对湿度计算的水汽平流项(KF3方案)。利用GFS预报场资料对上述改进方案进行模拟试验和批量回报试验,结果表明：“5·23”暴雨个例中,(1)改进方案均可以减少原方案模拟的部分虚假降水,KF1方案模拟降水范围较好,KF2方案模拟强降水中心较好,KF3方案同时具备二者优点。(2)三种改进方案对于强降水站点均存在模拟降水偏弱,KF1方案降水趋势与实况接近,但存在对流激发较快,后期降水略为不足,KF2方案则相反,KF3方案表现介于二者之间;KF2、KF3方案均会在对流激发最强和最弱时刻使其向有利方向调整。台风个例中,KF1方案模拟中心气压较好,KF2方案模拟台风路径较好,KF3方案则在两者上均有较好表现。TS评分检验表明KF1方案在各个降水量级上的评分都较低,KF2、KF3方案评分相对较高;误差检验(高度、风)时,KF1方案在中层误差较大,高、低层误差最小,其他两种方案表现则相反。     

中尺度数值模式业务预报系统

中尺度数值模式业务预报系统是在美国大气研究中心（NCAR）提供的中尺度数值模式（简称MMT）的基础上,结合当地的特殊地形和天气特点进行修改而完成的。系统采用T106资料作为第一猜测场,用实时资料作为初始场进行积分计算,预报未来48小时的天气情况。系统直接从省台的NT网上读取所需资料,计算结果以图形的格式存放在省台的NT网上。系统运行自动化程度高,计算稳定,预报结果较令人满意,为业务天气预报提供了客观定量的预报指标。     

中尺度模式AREMS预报系统介绍

为了适应当前气象业务发展的需求，中国科学院大气物理研究所和中国气象科学研究院以REM模式(也称ETA模式)作为基础框架之一发展了AREM中尺度数值模式。2003年该模式在淮河流域、长江流域暴雨预报试验中，使用效果良好。2004年初引进到陕西省气象台，经过多次调试，2004年5月1日业务化试运行。     

中尺度业务预报试验数值模式系统

以引进的美国Penn State/NCAR中尺度模式（MM2和MM4）为基础,按照实时业务预报需要和我国资料特点,在PC/386微机上研制了中尺度业务预报试验数值模式系统。在1989—1990年进行的实时业务预报试验中,该系统运行稳定,预报时效能满足实时业务预报要求,预报结果对12—24小时短期天气预报具有参考价值,适合于省（市）级气象台站等业务单位使用。     

强降水过程模式中尺度水汽初值的敏感性试验

用η坐标中尺度模式模拟了１９９８年７月２０日２０时～２１日２０时（北京时,下同）发生在湖北省东部的一次强降水过程。根据２０日２０时降水的实际发生区域,调整了武汉以南的一块与实际降水对应区域的８５０～４００ｈＰａ的湿度初始场。试验结果表明,模式降水预报效果强烈地依赖于中低层中尺度水汽初值。当探空网资料的客观分析场不能正确地反映出尺度高湿区的存在时,预报结果与实际偏差很大。根据实际降水区域对湿度场作人     

中尺度数值模式的自适应网格设计

引进了自适应网格设计的方法。自适应网要生成行技术基础变分原理,所生成的网格具有光滑性、一定程度的正交性和机调节网格疏密程度的优点,这种新技术可任意加密局地网格,从而达到以较小的计算量获得较高的计算精度的目的。将自适应网格技术应用于ＭＭ４中,并用来模拟１９２年６月１４日这次大范围暴雨过程。结果表明,采用自适应网格后计算稳定,２４ｈ降水预报得到明显改善。     

中尺度模式中辐射作用的敏感性试验

在中尺度区域气候模式RIEMS中通过考虑和不考虑辐射对大气温度变化的影响来研究中尺度气象过程对辐射的敏感性。结果表明,在月尺度上,辐射可以引起平均约2℃的温度差,从而影响气压形势场和中尺度气象过程,进而影响降水。但在日尺度上,辐射的作用可以不计。     

中尺度业务模式系统侧边界嵌套方法的研究

为提高预报准确率，在对多种嵌套方案试验对比的基础上，选用了一种计算效果较好，方法也不甚复杂的Ｄａｖｉｅｓ物理量松弛方案，对中尺度业务模式系统进行了预报试验。其网格边界值采用Ｔ４２Ｌ９谱模式的预报值。嵌套模式与原模式用同一个例进行了预报对比试验。结果表明，嵌套方案考虑了大尺度环流背景场在边界附近对中尺度系统的强迫作用，提高了有限区域模式的实际预报能力。     

一模式大气参考状态的科学计算与特征分析

采用样条格式二阶时空离散预报方程与显式-准拉格朗日积分方案, 建立非静力全可压数值模式动力框架, 对气压、气温(位温)、风及广义牛顿力(加速度)场做三次样条函数拟合, 实现各个变量场二阶可导, 并且按牛顿运动定律, 显式迭代插值求上游点\     

A history of mesoscale model development

The development of atmospheric mesoscale models from their early origins in the 1970’s until the present day is described. Evolution has occurred in dynamical and physics representations in these models. The dynamics has had to change from hydrostatic to fully nonhydrostatic equations to handle the finer scales that have become possible in the last few decades with advancing computer power, which has enabled real-time forecasting to go to finer grid sizes. Meanwhile the physics has also become more sophisticated than the initial representations of the major processes associated with the surface, boundary layer, radiation, clouds and convection. As resolutions have become finer, mesoscale models have had to change paradigms associated with assumptions related to what is considered sub-grid scale needing parameterization, and what is resolved well enough to be explicitly handled by the dynamics. This first occurred with cumulus parameterization as real-time forecast models became able to represent individual updrafts, and is now starting to occur in the boundary layer as future forecast models may be able resolve individual thermals. Beyond that, scientific research has provided a greater understanding of detailed microphysical and land-surface processes that are important to aspects of weather prediction, and these parameterizations have been developing complexity at a steady rate. This paper can just give a perspective of these developments in the broad field of research associated with mesoscale atmospheric model development.     

A three-dimensional study of mesoscale model response to radiative forcing

An infrared radiation parameterization has been applied to a detailed three-dimensional mesoscale model in order to determine whether radiative forcing significantly affects mesoscale atmospheric processes. By taking into account water vapor, liquid water, and carbon dioxide absorption, the scheme differentiates between cloud and clear air regions. The parametric model is presented, along with an overview of the associated mesoscale model.Comparisons between a control run in which only a uniform cooling rate of l K day^–1 is specified, and runs with the infrared scheme are made for 12-hr simulations. The major feature of the radiative forcing is seen to be strong cloud-top cooling. This leads to enhanced destabilization of the upper cloud layer, which in turn results in faster growth of clouds (and which extend to higher levels) than in the control experiment. The deeper clouds force a more vigorous secondary circulation, in which thermodynamic feedbacks between clouds and their environment are substantially stronger than in the case with only a constant cooling rate. This confirms findings made in previous studies undertaken in small-scale numerical models. The discussion also focuses upon a simulation in which the cloud-top infrared cooling has been smoothed out over neighboring vertical levels, in order to represent a cloud-top height distribution crudely. The results indicate that although the absolute values of cloud-top cooling are reduced with respect to the unfiltered case, the fact that cooling extends even higher than previously predicted leads to the formation of thicker, more vigorous clouds. These clouds interact more intensely with their environment than in the unfiltered situation, thereby considerably modifying the mesoscale atmosphere.     

A puff model revised by Monte-Carlo method on mesoscale range

A puff model is developed in this study, which simultaneously considers the Monte-Carlo technique, the time and space changes of atmospheric parameters, multiple continuity pollutant sources, linear chemical trans-formation and removal of pollutants, and the effect of complex terrain. The continuously observed turbulent statistical quantities, Lagrangian time scales, mesoscale flow field, and mixing layer depth in the PBL in the Dianchi area in China are directly put into the model, and the diurnal variations of air pollution are forecasted, which are dominated by such mesoscale local circulations as mountain and valley breeze, land and lake breeze, and city heat island (Kunming City). The results show that in the case of inputting the same data, they are in good agreement with the experimental data, as well as with the results of the three-dimensional advection-diffusion model (TD-ADM); the diurnal variation of mesoscale local circulation results in the obvious diurnal variation of mesoscale concentration distribution patterns; the Dianchi lake (appr. 300 km2) has a considerable effect on the distribution of air pollution in the area.     

A nonhydrostatic model for simulation of airflow over mesoscale bell-shaped ridges

This paper describes a nonhydrostatic and incompressible mesoscale model formulation using a terrain-following coordinate system. A tensor transformation procedure is used to derive a diagnostic equation for the nonhydrostatic pressure field. The model features a simplified second-order turbulence closure scheme. The two-dimensional version of the nonhydrostatic model, as well as the corresponding hydrostatic model, are applied to simulate stably stratified airflow over mesoscale bell-shaped mountain ridges. The results show that the nonhydrostatic model is capable of simulating nonhydrostatic dynamics of mesoscale lee wave systems such as the trapped wave phenomenon.     

An application of an efficient non-hydrostatic mesoscale model

This paper deals with a non-hydrostatic mesoscale model that achieves full vectorization on computers like the CYBER 205. The model formulation ensures the conservation of all fluxes and takes into account the terrain inhomogeneities by the aid of suitable transformations. The diagnostic equation for the pressure change is solved using a very efficient vectorized elliptic solver. By imposing appropriate boundary conditions no additional precautions at the boundaries are necessary to achieve meaningful results. As an application, the steady-state inviscid flow over a single mountain is simulated.     

A simplified hydrodynamic mesoscale model suitable for use over high plateau regions

Summary A simplified hydrodynamic primitive equation model in -coordinates is described. This model includes the main physical processes that influence development and motion of mesoscale vortices over plateau regions: elevated terrain effects, effects of large-scale and synoptic-scale systems on the mesoscale systems, sensible heating from the earth's surface, moisture cycle and condensation heating released by both large-scale stable precipitation and cumulus convective precipitation, evaporation and the feedback effect of precipitation on evaporation, friction in the planetary boundary layer, horizontal diffusion by subgrid scale eddies and vertical eddy flux of meteorological elements (momentum, temperature, moisture, etc.) due to turbulence, cumulus convection and other smaller-scale physical processes. The model incorporates observed data as much as possible and equations are simplified so that it may be run using either a high-speed computer or a desktop computer.Two developing vortices that originated over the Qinghai-Xizang (Tibet) Platau and moved eastward producing heavy precipitation over the lower elevations are used to test the model. It is shown that the model is capable of simulating the major features of the vortices including the precipitation distribution and may be used for studies of mesoscale and synoptic scale weather systems over plateau regions.

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Ein vereinfachtes für hochländer geeignetes hydrodynamisches mesoscale-modell

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein vereinfachtes hydrodynamisches Grundgleichungsmodell in -Koordinaten be schrieben. Dieses Modell beinhaltet die wichtigsten physikalischen Prozesse, die die Entwicklung und Bewegung von mesoskaligen Wirbeln über Hochplateaus beeinflussen: Effekte der Hochfläche, Effekte von großräumigen und synoptischen Systemen, die fühlbare Wärme von der Erdoberfläche, den Feuchtigkeitskreislauf und die Kondensationswärme, sowohl von großräumigen als auch von Konvektionsniederschlägen, die Evaporation und die Beeinflussung der Evaporation durch den Niederschlag, die Reibung in der planetaren Grenzschicht, die horizontale Diffusion durch Turbulenzen, die kleiner als die Gitterkonstante sind und den vertikalen Fluß meteorologischer Elemente (Impuls, Temperatur, Feuchte etc.) durch Turbulenzen, Konvektion und andere kleinräumige Prozesse. In das Modell sind die Beobachtungswerte weitestgehend integriert und die Gleichungen soweit vereinfacht, daß es sowohl auf einem Hochleistungs- als auch auf einem Mikrocomputer laufen kann.Zum Testen des Modells wurden zwei sich entwickelnde Wirbel verwendet, die vom Qinghai-Xizang-Plateu (Hochland von Tibet) ausgingen, sich ostwärts bewegten und dabei zu schweren Niederschlägen in den Tiefländern führten. Es wird gezeigt, daß das Modell die wichtigsten Eigenschaften der Wirbel und die Niederschlagsverteilung simulieren und für Untersuchungen von mesoskaligen und synoptischen Wettersystemen über Hochländern herangezogen werden kann.

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With 18 figures