基于粒子群优化算法与厄米多项式构建地震综合预测投影寻踪回归模型

在地震综合预测投影寻踪研究工作中,投影寻踪回归算法是其中应用最多的一种方法．但一般投影寻踪回归算法构造技术较为复杂,采用多次局部光滑回归,计算量较大,外推较为繁杂,容易陷于局部解．在综合考虑传统投影寻踪回归算法特点的基础上,针对投影寻踪回归计算中存在的一些不利因素,给出了一定的解决思路:采用粒子群优化算法代替高斯 牛顿算法优化投影方向;采用厄米多项式代替分段线性光滑回归来拟合岭函数,以简化优化过程;参数优化无需分组,获得全局优化的岭函数．利用数值仿真技术进行基于粒子群优化算法与厄米多项式构建的投影寻踪回归模型建模能力与计算精度的检验,再将其应用于多维地震时间序列和一般多维无序地震样本回归综合建模预测中．通过计算和分析表明,基于粒子群优化算法与厄米多项式构建的投影寻踪回归模型具有简单、快速、有效的特点,在实际地震综合预测建模中取得了满意的效果,可作为地震预测的一种综合分析方法．      

新疆天山地区 PP回归综合预报模型研究及预报效能评价

运用基于 PP回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件系统, 对新疆天山地区进行了 PP回归建模研究。 通过回顾性 PP回归动态建模预测检验,对其预报效能进行了评价。 结果认为,该模型作为时序性数值预报模型具有较好的中短期预报效能。 尤其对地震样本量大、震级分布完备的地区,其预报效能更好。     

HPPPR模型及其在地震综合预测研究中的初步应用

在综合考虑经典投影寻踪算法特点的基础上,针对投影寻踪计算中存在的一些不利因素,给出相应的解决思路.利用数值仿真技术进行基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归模型建模能力与计算精度的检验,再将其应用于多维地震时间序列综合建模预测中.计算结果和进一步分析表明,基于粒子群优化算法与厄密特多项式构建的投影寻踪回归投影寻踪模型具有简单、快速、有效的特点,在实际地震综合预测建模中取得了满意的效果,可作为地震综合预测的一种回归分析方法.     

新疆主要地震区pp回归综合预报模型研究

应用基于ｐｐ回归理论的数值型地震综合预报软件系统,选择了ｂ值、Ｃｂ值、Ａｂ值等１５个测震学参量,建立了它们与响应变量（未来任意时段内最大地震震级）的ｐｐ回归模型．对新疆４个主要地震区分别给出了各区的建模岭函数及综合预报模型．回顾检验及实际预报结果均表明该模型的预报效果是较为理想的．     

考虑抗震性约束的建筑空间结构优化

当前对建筑空间结构进行优化时,所采用的算法趋同性高,无法实现多目标种群优化,易陷入局部最优解,存在寻优质量低、优化成本高、抗震性能低的问题。针对上述问题,提出一种基于改进粒子群算法的建筑空间结构优化方法。该方法以空间结构的抗震性能、工程造价为优化目标,来优化建立建筑空间结构设计;引入多子群协同进化机制解决建筑空间结构抗震优化设计中多目标间的种群优化问题,同时引入外部档案和精英学习策略改进粒子群算法,筛选出满足目标函数的最优设计方案,完成抗震性约束的建筑空间结构优化。实验结果表明:所提方法对建筑空间结构优化时的特点为寻优质量高、优化成本低、抗震性能高。     

基于粒子群优化算法的叠前角道集子波反演

本文探讨了粒子群优化(PSO)算法在叠前地震角道集子波反演中的应用.在基本最优PSO算法的基础上,提出了对粒子更新速度进行平滑滤波的改进最优粒子群算法.由于代表子波的粒子的维数较大,如果粒子的各维元素相互独立,将导致粒子速度更新紊乱,影响搜索速度.通过对粒子速度进行三点均值滤波,加强了单个粒子各维元素的相互联系,并防止了粒子速度逃逸,使粒子更快地向有利于最优解的位置收敛.该方法应用于叠前角道集子波的反演中,取得了较好的子波反演效果,证明了本文方法的有效性.     

Optimal design of structures for earthquake loads by a hybrid RBF-BPSO method

The optimal seismic design of structures requires that time history analyses （THA） be carried out repeatedly. This makes the optimal design process inefficient, in particular, if an evolutionary algorithm is used. To reduce the overall time required for structural optimization, two artificial intelligence strategies are employed. In the first strategy, radial basis function （RBF） neural networks are used to predict the time history responses of structures in the optimization flow. In the second strategy, a binary particle swarm optimization （BPSO） is used to find the optimum design. Combining the RBF and BPSO, a hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method is proposed in this paper, which achieves fast optimization with high computational performance. Two examples are presented and compared to determine the optimal weight of structures under earthquake loadings using both exact and approximate analyses. The numerical results demonstrate the computational advantages and effectiveness of the proposed hybrid RBF-BPSO optimization method for the seismic design of structures.     

A SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm for calculating the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation

Conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation(CNOP) is an extension of the linear singular vector technique in the nonlinear regime.It represents the initial perturbation that is subjected to a given physical constraint,and results in the largest nonlinear evolution at the prediction time.CNOP-type errors play an important role in the predictability of weather and climate.Generally,when calculating CNOP in a complicated numerical model,we need the gradient of the objective function with respect to the initial perturbations to provide the descent direction for searching the phase space.The adjoint technique is widely used to calculate the gradient of the objective function.However,it is difficult and cumbersome to construct the adjoint model of a complicated numerical model,which imposes a limitation on the application of CNOP.Based on previous research,this study proposes a new ensemble projection algorithm based on singular vector decomposition(SVD).The new algorithm avoids the localization procedure of previous ensemble projection algorithms,and overcomes the uncertainty caused by choosing the localization radius empirically.The new algorithm is applied to calculate the CNOP in an intermediate forecasting model.The results show that the CNOP obtained by the new ensemble-based algorithm can effectively approximate that calculated by the adjoint algorithm,and retains the general spatial characteristics of the latter.Hence,the new SVD-based ensemble projection algorithm proposed in this study is an effective method of approximating the CNOP.     

Optimal seismic design of reinforced concrete structures under timehistory earthquake loads using an intelligent hybrid algorithm

A reliable seismic-resistant design of structures is achieved in accordance with the seismic design codes by designing structures under seven or more pairs of earthquake records. Based on the recommendations of seismic design codes, the average time-history responses(ATHR) of structure is required. This paper focuses on the optimal seismic design of reinforced concrete(RC) structures against ten earthquake records using a hybrid of particle swarm optimization algorithm and an intelligent regression model(IRM). In order to reduce the computational time of optimization procedure due to the computational efforts of time-history analyses, IRM is proposed to accurately predict ATHR of structures. The proposed IRM consists of the combination of the subtractive algorithm(SA), K-means clustering approach and wavelet weighted least squares support vector machine(WWLS-SVM). To predict ATHR of structures, first, the input-output samples of structures are classified by SA and K-means clustering approach. Then, WWLS-SVM is trained with few samples and high accuracy for each cluster. 9- and 18-storey RC frames are designed optimally to illustrate the effectiveness and practicality of the proposed IRM. The numerical results demonstrate the efficiency and computational advantages of IRM for optimal design of structures subjected to time-history earthquake loads.     

基于粒子群优化的理论变异函数拟合方法研究

变异函数是地统计学中区域化变量空间结构分析和空间局部插值的主要分析工具.理论变异函数模型的获取是地质统计学中的基础性工作,它是了解区域化变量的变异特征、进一步对地质统计学计算的必要环节.针对现有的理论变异函数的拟合方法,如人工拟合法、线性规划拟合法、加权多项式拟合法、目标规划拟合法等的不足之处,充分利用粒子群优化算法在求解非线性优化问题时具有的全局寻优的特点,提出基于粒子群优化的理论变异函数拟合方法.在实例应用中,分别利用粒子群优化算法和加权多项式拟合方法进行理论变异函数拟合,交叉验证结果表明粒子群优化算法预测精度较高,具有较强的稳健性.     

Time-frequency decomposition of seismic signals via quantum swarm evolutionary matching pursuit

Matching pursuit belongs to the category of spectral decomposition approaches that use a pre-defined discrete wavelet dictionary in order to decompose a signal adaptively. Although disengaged from windowing issues, matching point demands high computational costs as extraction of all local structure of signal requires a large size dictionary. Thus in order to find the best match wavelet, it is required to search the whole space. To reduce the computational cost of greedy matching pursuit, two artificial intelligence methods, (1) quantum inspired evolutionary algorithm and (2) particle swarm optimization, are introduced for two successive steps: (a) initial estimation and (b) optimization of wavelet parameters. We call this algorithm quantum swarm evolutionary matching pursuit. Quantum swarm evolutionary matching pursuit starts with a small colony of population at which each individual, is potentially a transformed form of a time-frequency atom. To attain maximum pursuit of the potential candidate wavelets with the residual, the colony members are adjusted in an evolutionary way. In addition, the quantum computing concepts such as quantum bit, quantum gate, and superposition of states are introduced into the method. The algorithm parameters such as social and cognitive learning factors, population size and global migration period are optimized using seismic signals. In applying matching pursuit to geophysical data, typically complex trace attributes are used for initial estimation of wavelet parameters, however, in this study it was shown that using complex trace attributes are sensitive to noisy data and would have lower rate of convergence. The algorithm performance over noisy signals, using non-orthogonal dictionaries are investigated and compared with other methods such as orthogonal matching pursuit. The results illustrate that quantum swarm evolutionary matching pursuit has the least sensitivity to noise and higher rate of convergence. Finally, the algorithm is applied to both modelled seismograms and real data for detection of low frequency anomalies to validate the findings.     

IDENTIFICATION OF SEISMIC REFLECTIONS USING SINGULAR VALUE DECOMPOSITION*

Singular value decomposition (SVD) is applied to the identification of seismic reflections by using two different models: the impulse response model, where a seismic trace is assumed to consist of a known signal pulse convolved with a reflection coefficient series plus noise, and the delayed pulse model, where the seismic signal is assumed to consist of a small number of delayed pulses of known shape and with unknown amplitudes and arrival times. SVD clearly shows how least-squares estimation of the reflection coefficients may become unstable, since a division by the singular values is required. Two methods for stabilizing this procedure are investigated. The inverse of the singular values may be replaced by zeros when they are less than a given threshold. This is called the SVD cut-off method. Alternatively, we may use ridge regression which in filter design corresponds to assuming white noise. Statistical methods are used to compute an optimal SVD cut-off level and also to compute an optimal weighting parameter in ridge regression. Numerical studies indicate that the use of SVD cut-off or ridge regression stabilizes the least-squares procedure, but that the results are inferior to maximum-likelihood estimation where the noise is assumed to be filtered white noise. For the delayed pulse model, we use a linearization procedure to iteratively update the estimates of both the reflection amplitudes and the arrival times. In each step, the optimal SVD cut-off method is used. Confidence regions for the estimated reflection amplitudes and arrival times are also computed. Synthetic data examples demonstrate the effectiveness of this method. In a real data example, the maximum-likelihood method assuming an impulse response model is first used to obtain initial estimates of the number of reflections and their amplitudes and traveltimes. Then the iterative procedure is used to obtain improved estimates of the reflection amplitudes and traveltimes.     

基于微粒群算法的供水管网抗震优化设计

以管网年费用折算值为优化目标、管网拓扑结构与管径为优化参数、管网节点最低可靠度为约束条件,建立了供水管网抗震优化设计模型。利用微粒群算法对这一模型进行了求解,该算法以管网作为微粒个体,通过不断地更新微粒的位置来搜索最优的管网结构,直到最后给出优化的管网结构。利用上述方法对一典型供水管网进行了抗震优化设计分析,给出了3种不同节点最低可靠度约束条件下的优化改造方案。     

基于匹配追踪和遗传算法的大地电磁噪声压制

针对匹配追踪计算量大、大地电磁数据处理效率低的问题,提出基于匹配追踪和遗传算法的大地电磁噪声压制方法.首先,利用Gabor原子构建过完备原子库,并对过完备原子库集合进行划分.然后,借助遗传算法的自适应性,快速搜寻最优匹配原子及所在位置.最后,运用最优匹配原子对待处理信号进行稀疏分解,重构有用信号.通过对计算机模拟的典型强干扰和矿集区实测大地电磁数据进行分析处理,实验结果表明,相对于匹配追踪和正交匹配追踪,文中所提方法能从过完备原子库中快速、自适应地选取最优匹配原子与不同噪声干扰类型高精度的匹配,极大地提升了计算效率;大地电磁时间域序列中的大尺度强干扰被有效剔除,视电阻率曲线更为光滑、连续,低频段的数据质量得到明显改善.     

High‐definition frequency decomposition

Spectral decomposition is a widely used technique in analysis and interpretation of seismic data. According to the uncertainty principle, there exists a lower bound for the joint time–frequency resolution of seismic signals. The highest temporal resolution is achieved by a matching pursuit approach which uses waveforms from a dictionary of functions (atoms). This method, in its pure mathematical form can result in atoms whose shape and phase have no relation to the seismic trace. The high‐definition frequency decomposition algorithm presented in this paper interleaves iterations of atom matching and optimization. It divides the seismic trace into independent sections delineated by envelope troughs, and simultaneously matches atoms to all peaks. Co‐optimization of overlapping atoms ensures that the effects of interference between them are minimized. Finally, a second atom matching and optimization phase is performed in order to minimize the difference between the original and the reconstructed trace. The fully reconstructed traces can be used as inputs for a frequency‐based reconstruction and red–green–blue colour blending. Comparison with the results of the original matching pursuit frequency decomposition illustrates that high‐definition frequency decomposition based colour blends provide a very high temporal resolution, even in the low‐energy parts of the seismic data, enabling a precise analysis of geometrical variations of geological features.     

基于PPAR模型视二维地震时间序列预测的初步研究

PP投影寻踪是一种长于分析非正态、非线性的高维数据的新统计方法,它通过投影降维,客观地寻找反映高维数据结构特征的投影方向,从而解决“维数祸根”和高维数据间的非正态、非线性问题。将PP理论和时间序列分析中的自回归(AR(K))模型结合起来,建立投影寻踪自回归预测模型(PPAR)。尝试实现地震震级和时间的视二维预测,即在固定研究区里。实现震级和时间二要素的预测,进而建立视二维地震时间序列的投影寻踪自回归模型。研究中首先选取北天山地区作为实验区,模型的回归拟合和外符检验效果较理想,可实现视二维预测目标。考虑到实际预测意义。即中强地震的预测,又以天山地区为研究区。令其震级序列的震级阈值分别为5．0和5．5,分别以未删除余震和删除余震的序列建立模型。对比分析表明,后所建立的模型要优于前的模型。特别是对时间间隔序列的预测。两外符检验的合格率均较高,故认为对于震级和时间二要素的预测是有一定实效的。     

地震波时域数值优化研究及应用

将最小二乘拟合法与单自由度地震动力反应递归法相结合来解决地震观测和人工模拟地震波过程中速度、位移的基线漂移问题。首先以3次多项式来拟合加速度的均值线(一次优化);再对一次优化后的积分速度、位移时程仍存在的长周期基线波动问题,运用单自由度地震动力反应递归法进行二次优化。文中通过3个数值算例体现出优化算法的优越性,并将优化后的地震波加速度时程应用到江坪河水电站溢洪道控制段三维有限元动力计算分析中。结果表明,该算法消除了积分基线漂移影响,具有较好的可行性、数值稳定性和易操作性。     

全空间条件下矿井瞬变电磁法粒子群优化反演研究

煤矿井下矿井瞬变电磁法(MTEM)探测中,电磁场呈全空间分布,全空间瞬变电磁反演是复杂的非线性问题,目前反演计算中全空间响应主要由半空间响应乘以全空间响应系数来得到,导致反演结果中顶板和底板异常(或前方和后方异常)叠加在一起难以分离,造成分辨率下降.论文提出采用粒子群优化算法(PSO)进行全空间MTEM反演,通过理论分析,在常规的粒子群算法基础上提出了一种新的进化公式改进策略,提高了粒子群算法的寻优能力.基于全空间瞬变电磁场理论,编写了粒子群算法反演程序,进行全空间条件下五层含巷道的复杂模型的反演计算.结合某矿井巷道顶板、底板岩层及断层含水性的探测实例,对实测数据进行反演计算和解释,探测结果得到钻探证实.研究表明,改进的粒子群优化算法对理论模型和实际资料的反演拟合程度较高,实现了矿井顶板、底板视电阻率异常的分离,提高了全空间瞬变电磁勘探资料的解释精度和分辨率.     

River flow modelling: comparison of performance and evaluation of uncertainty using data-driven models and conceptual hydrological model

Hydrological and statistical models are playing an increasing role in hydrological forecasting, particularly for river basins with data of different temporal scales. In this study, statistical models, e.g. artificial neural networks, adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system, genetic programming, least squares support vector machine, multiple linear regression, were developed, based on parametric optimization methods such as particle swarm optimization (PSO), genetic algorithm (GA), and data-preprocessing techniques such as wavelet decomposition (WD) for river flow modelling using daily streamflow data from four hydrological stations for a period of 1954–2009. These models were used for 1-, 3- and 5-day streamflow forecasting and the better model was used for uncertainty evaluation using bootstrap resampling method. Meanwhile, a simple conceptual hydrological model GR4J was used to evaluate parametric uncertainty based on generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation method. Results indicated that: (1) GA and PSO did not help improve the forecast performance of the model. However, the hybrid model with WD significantly improved the forecast performance; (2) the hybrid model with WD as a data preprocessing procedure can clarify hydrological effects of water reservoirs and can capture peak high/low flow changes; (3) Forecast accuracy of data-driven models is significantly influenced by the availability of streamflow data. More human interferences from the upper to the lower East River basin can help to introduce greater uncertainty in streamflow forecasts; (4) The structure of GR4J may introduce larger parametric uncertainty at the Longchuan station than at the Boluo station in the East river basin. This study provides a theoretical background for data-driven model-based streamflow forecasting and a comprehensive view about data and parametric uncertainty in data-scarce river basins.     

基于Remez迭代算法求解差分系数的双相介质自适应有限差分正演模拟

利用传统有限差分方法对基于Biot理论的双相介质波动方程进行数值求解时,由于慢纵波的存在,数值频散效应较为明显,影响模拟精度.相对于声学近似方程及普通弹性波方程,Biot双相介质波动方程在同等数值求解算法和精度要求条件下,其地震波场正演模拟需要更多的计算时间.本文针对Biot一阶速度-应力方程组发展了一种变阶数优化有限差分数值模拟方法,旨在同时提高其正演模拟的精度和效率.首先结合交错网格差分格式推导Biot方程的数值频散关系式.然后基于Remez迭代算法求取一阶空间偏导数的优化差分系数,并用于Biot方程的交错网格有限差分数值模拟.在此基础上把三类波的平均频散误差参数限制在给定的频散误差阈值和频率范围内,此时优化有限差分算子的长度就能自适应非均匀双相介质模型中的不同速度区间.数值频散曲线分析表明:基于Remez迭代算法的优化有限差分方法相较传统泰勒级数展开方法在大波数范围对频散误差的压制效果更明显;可变阶数的优化有限差分方法能取得与固定阶数优化有限差分方法相近的模拟精度.在均匀介质和河道模型的数值模拟实验中将本文变阶数优化有限差分算法与传统泰勒展开算法、最小二乘优化算法进行比较,进一步证明其在复杂地下介质中的有效性和适用性.