Potential impact of climate change on ecosystems of the Barents Sea Region

The EU project BALANCE (Global Change Vulnerabilities in the Barents region: Linking Arctic Natural Resources, Climate Change and Economies) aims to assess vulnerability to climate change in the Barents Sea Region. As a prerequisite the potential impact of climate change on selected ecosystems of the study area has to be quantified, which is the subject of the present paper. A set of ecosystem models was run to generate baseline and future scenarios for 1990, 2020, 2050 and 2080. The models are based on data from the Regional Climate Model (REMO), driven by a GCM which in turn is forced by the IPCC-B2 scenario. The climate change is documented by means of the Köppen climate classification. Since the multitude of models requires the effect of climate change on individual terrestrial and marine systems to be integrated, the paper concentrates on a standardised visualisation of potential impacts by use of a Geographical Information System for the timeslices 2050 and 2080. The resulting maps show that both terrestrial and marine ecosystems of the Barents region will undergo significant changes until both 2050 and 2080.     

Assessing the impact of climatic change on food production

Attempts to assess the impact of a hypothetical climatic change on food production have relied on the use of statistical models which predict crop yields using various climatic variables. It is emphasized that the coefficients of these models are not universal constants, but rather statistical estimates subject to several sources of error. Thus, any statement regarding the estimated impact of climatic change on food production must be qualified appropriately.The National Center for Atmospheric Research is sponsored by the National Science Foundation.     

Sensitivity of agricultural production to climatic change

Although the range of cultivated species is relatively restricted, domestic plants and animals exhibit considerable resilience to stochastic shocks, and the study of their ecological adaptability and critical physiological and phenological requirements is a valuable first step in determining their possible response to climatic change. Methods of assessing agroclimatic suitability and their limitations are discussed, and suggestions are made for simulating the probable impact of shifts in the main climatic parameters on the productivity and spatial distribution of key crops and livestock. Some regions and crops are climatically more vulnerable than others: some regions (in particular North America) are strategically more critical to the stability of world food supplies, while in others resources for agricultural production are under more severe pressure.As well as attempts to forecast long-term climatic trends and their effects on agriculture, combating climatic variability merits high priority. This is an ever-present source of instability in production and could be enhanced in association with changing climate. Its magnitude differs widely among crops and geographical regions, but its impact from year to year is often greater than that predicted from climatic change even in extreme scenarios. The paper indicates a number of potentially desirable areas for action and suggests that several of these would be beneficial both as a buffer against short-term effects of variability and as a means of combating climatic change.     

Potential impact of climate change and reindeer density on tundra indicator species in the Barents Sea region

Climate change is expected to alter the distribution of habitats and thus the distribution of species connected with these habitats in the terrestrial Barents Sea region. It was hypothesised that wild species connected with the tundra and open-land biome may be particularly at risk as forest area expands. Fourteen species of birds were identified as useful indicators for the biodiversity dependent upon this biome. By bringing together species distribution information with the LPJ-GUESS vegetation model, and with estimates of future wild and domestic reindeer density, potential impacts on these species between the present time and 2080 were assessed. Over this period there was a net loss of open land within the current breeding range of most bird species. Grazing reindeer were modelled as increasing the amount of open land retained for nine of the tundra bird species.     

Impact of interannual variations of spring sea ice in the Barents Sea on East Asian rainfall in June

本研究揭示了春季巴伦支海海冰偶极子分布的年际变化和东亚夏季降水之间存在显著关联。对应春季巴伦支海北部海冰增加、东南部海冰减少,东亚夏季雨带位置向北移动。这两者主要是通过初夏欧亚大陆北部对流层低层的波列联系起来:该波列从极地向东南传播到东亚北部地区,导致东北亚低压增强,进而引起东亚夏季雨带北侧降水增加,雨带位置北移。该研究暗示春季巴伦支海海冰偶极子模态作为一个前期预测因子,有利于提高东亚夏季降水预测。     

Sea ice and wind: Effects on primary productivity in the Barents Sea

Abstract

The Barents Sea is divided into a northern and a southern part by the Polar Front (at about 75–76° N) where Atlantic waters descend under Arctic waters. Near to and north of the Polar Front, the spring bloom of phytoplankton is triggered by the stability induced in the upper 20 m by the melting of ice. The pycnocline is too strong to be eroded by wind. Primary productivity after the bloom is therefore small and largely regenerative. Underneath the pycnocline there is a 3–5 m thick layer characterized by dense, slow‐growing algal populations. New productivity north of the Polar Front is no more than 40 g C m^?2 a^?1.

In permanently open waters south of the Polar Front, the spring bloom starts in early May. Rhythmic wind‐induced mixing related to the atmospheric low‐pressure belt reaches an average 40–60 m depth in the growth season, and secondary phytoplankton maxima may arise. As a result, new annual productivity is more than doubled, i.e. 90 g C m^?2 a^?1, relative to the same system without wind. Although productivity is highest south of the Polar Front, it is more concentrated north of it, in the sense that high new production is mainly related to a 20–50 km wide belt that sweeps the area following the ice edge northwards while the ice melts through the summer.     

Heavy metals in the atmospheric precipitation on the Barents Sea coast

The results of heavy metal measurements in monthly precipitation samples are analyzed at biological station Dal’nie Zelentsy to define the role of the atmospheric precipitation in the marine environment pollution in the Barents Sea coastal region. Peculiarities of the atmospheric processes and the genesis of air masses bringing the precipitation and the extent of their effect on the precipitation pollution with heavy metals are considered based on the data obtained in 2001–2002. Of the air masses brining the precipitation to the Kola Peninsula coast the air masses of a marine origin have significant advantage. It is shown that weight average heavy metal (except copper) concentrations in the precipitation from the marine air masses on the Kola coast are higher than in the precipitation from the continental air masses. The emissions from local metallurgic enterprises influence the extent of the precipitation pollution with copper.     

Sea level responses to climatic variability and change in northern British Columbia

Abstract

Sea level responses to climatic variability (CV) and change (CC) signals at multiple temporal scales (interdecadal to monthly) are statistically examined using long‐term water level records from Prince Rupert (PR) on the north coast of British Columbia. Analysis of observed sea level data from PR, the longest available record in the region, indicates an annual average mean sea level (MSL) trend of +1.4±0.6 mm yr^?1 for the period (1939–2003), as opposed to the longer term trend of 1±0.4 mm yr^?1 (1909–2003). This suggests a possible acceleration in MSL trends during the latter half of the twentieth century. According to the results of this study, the causes behind this acceleration can be attributed not only to the effects of global warming but also to cyclic climate variability patterns such as the strong positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) phase that has been present since the mid‐1970s. The linear regression model based on highest sea levels (MAXSL) of each calendar year showed a trend exceeding twice that (3.4 mm yr^?1) of MSL. Previous work shows that the influence of vertical crustal motions on relative sea level are negligible at PR.

Relations between sea levels and known CV indices (e.g., the Multivariate ENSO Index (MEI), PDO, Northern Oscillation Index (NOI), and Aleutian Low Pressure Index (ALPI)) are explored to identify potential controls of CV phenomena (e.g., the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO), PDO) on regional MSL and MAXSL. Linear and non‐linear statistical methods including correlation analyses, multiple regression, Cumulative Sum (CumSum) analysis, and Superposed Epoch Analysis (SEA) are used. Results suggest that ENSO forcing (as shown by the MEI and NOI indices) exerts significant influence on winter sea level fluctuations, while the PDO dominates summer sea level variability. The observational evidence at PR also shows that, during the period 1939–2003, these cyclic shorter temporal scale sea level fluctuations in response to CV were significantly greater than the longer term sea‐level rise trend by as much as an order of magnitude and with trends over twice that of MSL. Such extreme sea level fluctuations related to CV events should be the immediate priority for the development of coastal adaptation strategies, as they are superimposed on long‐term MSL trends, resulting in greater hazard than longer term MSL rise trends alone.     

Biological production off Southern California is linked to climatic change

To obtain clues about how coastal primary production might be affected by interannual and interdecadal changes in climate, we studied marine laminated sediments from the center of the Santa Barbara Basin. We report here a large decrease in the flux of diatoms between the periods 1954–1972 and 1973–1986, by a factor of five, and sustained reductions from 1973 to 1978 by a factor of ten below the pre-1972 period. Planktonic foraminifera flux shows a consistent trend of decrease with lowest values from 1981 to 1984. On the whole, the 1954–1972 period is considerably cooler than the 1973–1986 period, over the entire North Pacific. The decrease in biological production in this coastal system is accompanied by an overall intensification of the Aleutian Low in the North Pacific over the past 14 years, providing for a weakening of the California Current, and an overall reduction of mixing and upwelling. The possibility that the low coastal production could provide positive feedback to global warming through reduction of CO₂-uptake, and its relation to the greenhouse effect is considered. On a shorter time-scale, the effects of El Niño phenomena are clearly seen in the sediments of this basin, as decreases in total diatom flux and increases in the relative abundance of certain warm-water diatoms.     

秋季巴伦支海海冰与中国京津冀地区2月气温变化的联系

利用中国京津冀地区94个气象台站气温观测资料以及美国国家环境预报中心和国家大气研究中心联合制作的再分析资料、美国国家海洋和大气管理局海冰密集度资料,采用经验正交函数分解、相关分析、回归分析、合成分析等方法,研究冬季气候变暖背景下近32 a中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20(2月4—20日)平均气温异常与前期秋季北极海冰异常的关系,探讨秋季巴伦支海海冰影响中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20气温的可能机制。结果表明：(1)1988/1989年冬季是中国京津冀地区冬季变暖的突变点,暖背景下Feb_4-20气温第一模态呈空间一致变化型,其时间系数年际变化特征明显;(2)秋季巴伦支海、喀拉海和东西伯利亚海关键区海冰密集度与中国京津冀地区Feb_4-20气温存在显著正相关,可作为Feb_4-20气温预测的前兆信号;(3)秋季巴伦支海关键区多(少)冰年,其冬季海冰也偏多(少),为持续冷(热)源,在欧亚大陆对流层中高层激发出负(正)位相的斯堪的纳维亚遥相关型分布,西伯利亚高压偏弱(强),欧亚中高纬近地面多为南(...     

Impact of recent climatic change on growth of low elevation eastern Mediterranean forest trees

Evidence is presented of how Pinus halepensis Miller from dry habitats at <300 m elevation of four Greek island regions have responded to climatic conditions of the last two centuries. We compared historical periods of low growth due to low precipitation with the recent period of significant precipitation decline. In all cases trees?? growth patterns across the twentieth century were consistent with trends in annual (rather than seasonal) precipitation, with lowest values in both precipitation and radial growth during the last two decades of the twentieth century, the worst conditions for tree growth in more than 200 years. The data are compared with trends across different vegetation belts of the northern Mediterranean basin. Drought related tree mortality in Greece in 2000 and 2007 coincided with the most severe fire outbreaks on record. IPCC WG I (2007) climate scenarios for the Mediterranean suggest a further decline in precipitation, particularly in the eastern regions. Should this occur, growth reduction in trees, tree mortality and damage from forest fires are likely to become more severe.     

Modeling Iceberg Drift in the Barents Sea from Field Data

The iceberg drift model is developed and used for simulating the iceberg drift trajectory in the Barents Sea. The model is forced by hydrometeorological characteristics obtained from ship observations. Original techniques for retrieving the sea-level slope gradient and surface velocity of currents are proposed, implemented, and validated using independent data. Thus, additional data were calculated from field data in order to use the iceberg drift model with the full set of external forces. This allowed improving the iceberg trajectory simulation and assessing the contribution of all forces that affect the iceberg drift. The iceberg drift calculations demonstrate that the drift characteristics are extremely sensitive to all external effects and the model parameters; therefore, the quality of input hydrometeorological data essentially affects the simulation of real iceberg trajectories.     

冬季北极喀拉海、巴伦支海海冰面积变化对东亚冬季风的影响

通过大量的数据分析发现,冬季喀拉海、巴伦支海海区是影响东亚以及北半球气候变化的关键区之一,该海区海冰面积变化与大气500 hPa高度场的EU遥相关型以及东亚冬季风强、弱之间存在密切的关系。冬季该海区海冰偏多,则500 hPa高度场容易出现EU遥相关型（日本及西欧500 hPa高度场偏高）,亚洲大陆上的冷高压减弱,而北太平洋海域海平面气压升高,致使东亚冬季风偏弱以及2月份入侵我国的冷空气次数减少;而冬季该海区海冰偏少时,情况正好相反。     

Influence of changed vegetations fields on regional climate simulations in the Barents Sea Region

In the context of the EU-Project BALANCE () the regional climate model REMO was used for extensive calculations of the Barents Sea climate to investigate the vulnerability of this region to climate change. The regional climate model REMO simulated the climate change of the Barents Sea Region between 1961 and 2100 (Control and Climate Change run, CCC-Run). REMO on ~50 km horizontal resolution was driven by the transient ECHAM4/OPYC3 IPCC SRES B2 scenario. The output of the CCC-Run was applied to drive the dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS. The results of the vegetation model were used to repeat the CCC-Run with dynamic vegetation fields. The feedback effect of the modified vegetation on the climate change signal is investigated and discussed with focus on precipitation, temperature and snow cover. The effect of the offline coupled vegetation feedback run is much lower than the greenhouse gas effect.     

Effects of climatic change and climatic variability on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin

The Thornthwaite moisture index is useful as an indicator of the supply of water in an area relative to the demand under prevailing climatic conditions. This study examines the effects of long-term changes in climate (temperature and precipitation) on the Thornthwaite moisture index in the Delaware River basin. Temperature and precipitation estimates for doubled-CO₂ conditions derived from three general circulation models (GCMs) are used to study the response of the moisture index for steady-state doubled-CO₂ conditions and for gradual changes from present to doubled-CO₂ conditions.Results of the study indicate that temperature and precipitation under doubled-CO₂ conditions will cause the Thornthwaite moisture index to decrease, implying significantly drier conditions in the Delaware River basin than currently exist. The amount of decrease depends, however, on the GCM climatic-change scenario used. The results also indicate that future changes in the moisture index will be partly masked by natural year-to-year variability in temperature and precipitation.     

气候变迁研究现状的几个问题

气候变迁研究在近几年有很大的发展,现在它已不只是一个学术问题,而是一个具有重要现实意义的科学课题了。随着社会生产的发展,编制长期发展规划和设计重大工程都需要参考过去和未来的气候情况。其目的不仅是为了预防气候灾害,而且也要求对今后气候资源有所估计,以便开发利用。我国农业学大寨运动蓬勃开展以来,很多地方迅速     

Climatic variations of ice conditions in different regions of the Barents Sea

Presented are the results of studying the regional peculiarities of climatic variations of spatiotemporal distribution of ice in the Barents Sea water area in 1977?C2010. Demonstrated is the dynamics of the interannual and seasonal variability of main elements of the ice regime (ice cover area, ice edge position, and ice period duration). Revealed are the common features and differences in the ice conditions in the water areas under study. It has been found that there is a significant feedback between the specific ice coverage in different areas of the sea. The climatic variations of the total ice coverage of the Barents Sea for the period of 1960?C2010 are analyzed using the electronic database on the Barents Sea ice coverage. It can be supposed that the current warm phase of climatic variations in the Barents Sea is coming to the end.     

Simulations and Projections of Winter Sea Ice in the Barents Sea by CMIP6 Climate Models

Dramatic changes in the sea ice characteristics in the Barents Sea have potential consequences for the weather and climate systems of mid-latitude continents, Arctic ecosystems, and fisheries, as well as Arctic maritime navigation.Simulations and projections of winter sea ice in the Barents Sea based on the latest 41 climate models from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6(CMIP6) are investigated in this study. Results show that most CMIP6 models overestimate winter sea ice in the B...