Regular and seasonal behaviour of atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) over low latitude station calcutta

Summary The electromagnetic radiation of cloud discharge known as atmospheric radio noise field strength (ARNFS) shows a gradual fall from a frequency of 9 kHz to 81 kHz as studied over a period of two years at Calcutta, very close to Bay of Bengal. The main characteristic features of ARNFS at Calcutta are that-(i) ARNFS shows that midday median value is smaller than midnight median value in all months, (ii) level of daily minimum is higher in February and monsoon compared to other seasons, (iii) sunrise effect and sunset effect are well correlated with local sunrise and sunset times, (iv) the magnitude of sunrise fade and sunrise fade rate are maximum in April and lowest during winter period, (v) the magnitude of sunset fade is higher in premonsoon and postmonsoon while it is lowest in monsoon, (vi) number of occurrence of both sunrise effect and sunset effect is remark-ably smaller in monsoon. The positions of the sun and of atmospheric sources are jointly the causes of seasonal and diurnal variations. The missing of sunrise effect and sunset effect are due to local cloud activity and variation of electron density during geomagnetic storms.With 7 Figures     

The behaviour of a mixed-layer model of the convective boundary layer coupled to a big leaf model of surface energy partitioning

Daily mean values of the Priestley-Taylor coefficient, ¯, are derived from a simple model of the daily growth of a convective boundary layer. For a particular control set of driving environmental variables, ¯ is related to the prescribed bulk surface resistance, r_S by 1/¯ = 1/₀ + mr_S for parameters ₀ and m. The dependence of the parameters ₀ and m on weather is explored and a potential use of this linear relation to provide information about regional values of r_S is indicated.     

Breaking global temperature records after Mt. Pinatubo

The probability of setting global temperature records is reconsidered in light of cooling due to the Mt. Pinatubo eruption. The cooling resets temperature by moving it away from the top of its 100-year range. Depending on the statistical model for temperature, this reset can lead to a much lower probability for a record in the next few years. The exercise illustrates how record setting depends on the underlying model, the current record value, and - if there is serial correlation- the current temperature.     

Occurrence of roll circulations in a shallow boundary layer

Meteorological measurements taken at the Näsudden wind turbine site during slightly unstable conditions have been analyzed. The height of the convective boundary layer (CBL) was rather low, varying between 60 and 300 m. Turbulence statistics near the ground followed Monin-Obukhov similarity, whereas the remaining part of the boundary layer can be regarded as a near neutral upper layer. In 55% of the runs, horizontal roll vortices were found. Those were the most unstable runs, with -z _i/L > 5. Spectra and co-spectra are used to identify the structures. Three roll indicators were identified: (i) a low frequency peak in the spectrum of the lateral component at low level; (ii) a corresponding increase in the vertical component at mid-CBL; (iii) a positive covariance {ovvw} together with positive wind shear in the lateral direction (V/z) in the CBL. By applying these indicators, it is possible to show that horizontal roll circulations are likely to be a common phenomenon over the Baltic during late summer and early winter.     

The impact of climate change on the river rhine: A scenario study

This paper concerns the impact of human-induced global climate change on the River Rhine discharge. For this purpose a model for climate assessment, named ESCAPE, is coupled to a water balance model, named RHINEFLOW. From climate scenarios, changes in regional annual water availability and seasonal discharge in the River Rhine Basin are estimated. The climate scenarios are based on greenhouse gases emissions scenarios. An assessment is made for best guess seasonal discharge changes and for changes in frequencies of low and high discharges in the downstream reaches of the river. In addition, a quantitative estimation of the uncertainties associated with this guess is arrived at.The results show that the extent and range of uncertainty is large with respect to the best guess changes. The uncertainty range is 2–3 times larger for the Business-as-Usual than for the Accelerated Policies scenarios. This large range stems from the doubtful precipitation simulations from the present General Circulation Models. This scenario study showed the precipitation scenarios to be the key-elements within the present range of reliable climate change scenarios.For the River Rhine best guess changes for annual water availability are small according to both scenarios. The river changes from a present combined snow-melt-rain fed river to an almost entirely rain fed river. The difference between present-day large average discharge in winter and the small average discharge in autumn should increase for all scenarios. This trend is largest in the Alpine part of the basin. Here, winter discharges should increase even for scenarios forecasting annual precipitation decreases. Summer discharge should decrease. Best guess scenarios should lead to increased frequencies of both low and high flow events in the downstream (Dutch) part of the river. The results indicate changes could be larger than presently assumed in worst case scenarios used by the Dutch water management authorities.     

Scavenging Efficiency of ‘Aerosol Carbon’ and Sulfate in Supercooled Clouds at Mt. Sonnblick (3106 m a.s.l., Austria)

Cloud water and interstitial aerosol samples collected at Mt. Sonnblick (SBO) were analyzed for sulfate and aerosol carbon to calculate in-cloud scavenging efficiencies. Scavenging efficiencies for sulfate (_SO) ranged from 0.52 to 0.99 with an average of 0.80. Aerosol carbon was scavenged less efficiently with an average value (_AC) of 0.45 and minimum and maximum values of 0.14 and 0.81, respectively. Both _SO and _AC showed a marked, but slightly different, dependence on the liquid water content (LWC) of the cloud. At low LWC, _SO increased with rising LWC until it reached a relatively constant value of 0.83 above an LWC of 0.3 g/m³. In the case of aerosol carbon, we obtained a more gradual increase of _AC up to an LWC of 0.5 g/m³. At higher LWCs, _{_} remained relatively constant at 0.60. As the differences between _SO and _A varied across the LWC range observed at SBO, we assume that part of the aerosol carbon was incorporated into the cloud droplets independently from sulfate. This hypothesis is supported by size classified aerosol measurements. The differences in the size distributions of sulfate and total carbon point to a partially external mixture. Thus, the different chemical nature and the differences in the size and mixing state of the aerosol particles are the most likely candidates for the differences in the scavenging behavior.     

Estimating product yields of carbon-containing products from the atmospheric photooxidation of ambient air alkenes

The yields of products have been calculated for the reactions of hydroxyl radicals and ozone with 19 of the two-through-six carbon anthropogenic alkenes. Based on their rate of reaction, mechanisms of reactions and the ambient air distribution for these alkenes their seasonal ambient air yields have been estimated.Aldehydes predominate as products irrespective of season, with smaller yields of several ketones. Other minor products include carboxylic acids, carbon monoxide, carbon dioxide, and alkenes. About a two-fold increase is estimated in the yields of hot biradicals and their products from summer to winter.One sensitivity analysis was made by recomputing yields at a different OH radical to O₃ concentration than assumed most likely in the calculations discussed above. In addition, the sensitivity of product yields to an estimated range of seasonally averaged sunset-to-sunrise NO₃ radical concentrations was calculated. The effects of free radical reactions are discussed, but these are believed to make a relatively minor contribution within the NO _x -rich atmospheres that contain anthropogenic alkenes.The uncertainties in product yields associated with the range of NO₃ radical concentrations assumed present is relatively small for aldehydes, as is the decrease in yield of the one carbon hot biradical. Larger uncertainties occur for ketones. Significant decreases in yields occur for larger hot biradicals, especially the branched-chain hot radicals in the presence of NO₃ radicals.     

AN E – ε – ℓ TURBULENCE CLOSURE SCHEME FOR PLANETARY BOUNDARY-LAYER MODELS: THE NEUTRALLY STRATIFIED CASE

The standard E – model generates aplanetary boundary layerthat appears to be much too deep. The cause of theproblem is traced to the equation for the dissipationrate () of turbulent kinetic energy (E), specifically theparameterization of dissipation production anddestruction. In the context of atmosphericboundary-layer modelling, we argue that a part of thedissipation production should be modelled as the inputto the spectral cascade from the energy-containingpart of the spectrum, with a characteristic length , while the equilibrium imbalancebetween local production and destruction ofdissipation is modelled as proportional toE2/E, as in the standard model. Wepropose an E – – turbulence closurescheme, in which both the mixing length, m, and are prescribed. The importance ofthe equation is diminished, though itstill determines the dissipation rate in the Eequation.     

Shear convection

The paper discusses convection in the presence of wind shear, a condition analysed previously by Zilitinkevich (1971). This region (between the forced and fully developed convective layers) was also considered by Betchov and Yaglom (1971). In the present paper the author endeavors to develop a consistent analysis from the basic hypothesis of a very weak interaction between the vertical convective motions and mechanical turbulence, employing a new similarity model of the turbulent regime. Additional experimental data are introduced. Unlike the notation used in the references quoted above, this regime is termed shear convection rather than free convection. The latter is traditionally regarded as synonymous with the terms pure or fully developed convection.     

Stable boundary layers: Observations,models and variability part I: Modelling and measurements

Selected field measurements of evening stable boundary layers are presented in detail comparable with published Large Eddy Simulation results. Such models appear to match idealized theories more closely than do some boundary-layer observations. Any attempt to compare detailed observations with idealized models therefore highlights the variability of the real boundary layer.Here direct turbulence measurements across the stable boundary layer from a heterogeneous and an ideal site are contrasted. Recommendations are made for the information needed to distinguish heterogeneous and ideal cases.The companion paper (Part II) discusses further the issues of data, analysis in the presence of variability, and the effects of averaging over heterogeneous terrain.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Process Research Division.     

A dynamical analysis of the drag conditions at the sea surface

When applied to a sea surface, shortcomings are noted for the ordinary classification of drag conditions at rigid underlying surfaces according to the Reynolds roughness number Re _s . It is shown that in the case of mobile underlying surfaces, it would be more natural to use the dynamical classification of drag conditions according to the order of magnitude of the ratio ( = /) of the momentum flux toward the waves ( _w) to the viscous momentum flux through the surface ( _w). The relevant estimates of for the main stages of development of the wind waves indicate that the observed values of the drag coefficient of the sea surface correspond to the case of underdeveloped roughness.     

Wind and temperature profile prediction for diabatic surface layers including strong inversion cases

The micrometeorological research program in Antarctica has provided extensive data on wind and temperature profile structure under strong to extreme inversion conditions (Dalrymple et al., 1966; Lettau et al., 1977). The basic similarity hypotheses and limiting conditions for prediction of diabatic surface layer profiles are summarized. The model by Businger et al. (1971) for dimensionless shear and temperature gradients is revised to conform with the new results for strong stability. A novel similarity hypothesis is introduced to complete the step from shear and gradient prediction to prediction of absolute wind speed, wind energy, and temperature on the basis of prescribed external factors of surface layer structure. The physics of interactions between predicted profile tilting and curving are discussed and used to explain several micrometeorological paradoxes, including that of the elevated minimum of air temperature observed occasionally near the active surface when the energy budget is of the nocturnal type.     

A Green Planet Versus a Desert World: Estimating the Maximum Effect of Vegetation on the Land Surface Climate

We quantify the maximum possible influence of vegetation on the global climate by conducting two extreme climate model simulations: in a first simulation (desert world), values representative of a desert are used for the land surface parameters for all non glaciated land regions. At the other extreme, a second simulation is performed (green planet) in which values are used which are most beneficial for the biosphere's productivity. Land surface evapotranspiration more than triples in the presence of the green planet, land precipitation doubles (as a second order effect) and near surface temperatures are lower by as much as 8 K in the seasonal mean resulting from the increase in latent heat flux. The differences can be understood in terms of more absorbed radiation at the surface and increased recycling of water. Most of the increase in net surface radiation originates from less thermal radiative loss and not from increases in solar radiation which would be expected from the albedo change. To illustrate the differences in climatic character and what it would imply for the vegetation type, we use the Köppen climate classification. Both cases lead to similar classifications in the extra tropics and South America indicating that the character of the climate is not substantially altered in these regions. Fundamental changes occur over Africa, South Asia and Australia, where large regions are classified as arid (grassland/desert) climate in the desert world simulation while classified as a forest climate in the green planet simulation as a result of the strong influence of maximum vegetation on the climate. This implies that these regions are especially sensitive to biosphere-atmosphere interaction.     

Similarity of atmospheric Reynolds shear stress and heat flux fluctuations over a rough surface

Horizontal u and vertical w velocity fluctuations have been measured together with temperature fluctuations in the atmospheric surface layer, at a small height above a wheat crop canopy. Marginal probability density functions are presented for both individual fluctuations u, w, and for the instantaneous Reynolds stress uw, and heat fluxes w and u. Probability density functions of the velocity fluctuations deviate less significantly from the Gaussian form than the probability density of temperature. There appears to be closer similarity between statistics of the instantaneous heat fluxes than between the momentum flux and either of the heat fluxes investigated. The mean momentum flux receives equal contributions from the events referred to as ejections and sweeps in laboratory boundary layers. Sweeps provide the largest contribution to the heat fluxes.     

Observed variations of σθ and σΦ in the nocturnal drainage flow in a deep valley

The variations of and in the drainage flow in the Brush Creek valley of western Colorado are investigated using data from Doppler acoustic sodars and instrumented towers. The data were obtained on two experimental nights during the 1984 ASCOT field study. There is good agreement between the variations derived from low-level observations of the sodars and those derived from the towers located throughout the valley. The observed hourly average and in the nocturnal drainage flow are about 20 ° to 25 ° and 5 °, respectively; these values are much larger than those generally observed over flat terrain during nighttime stable conditions. After sunrise (about 0600 MST), as the valley warms and the flow direction changes to up-valley, these parameters increase sharply to their peak values at about 0800 MST and then decrease to their normal daytime values after about two hours.In the drainage flow, the hourly average varies inversely with wind speed according to the relation u 0.7ms^-1. The vertical standard deviation is much less enhanced by complex terrain than the horizontal standard deviation. The observed values are predicted fairly well by the local similarity theory.Oak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) Summer Research Participant at ATDD in 1987 andOak Ridge Associated Universities (ORAU) Summer Research Participant at ATDD in 1987 and     

The validation of various schemes for parameterizing evaporation from bare soil for use in meteorological models: A numerical study using in situ data

Parameterization of evaporation from a non-plant-covered surface is very important in the hierarchy strategy of modelling land surface processes. One of the representations frequently used in its computation is the resistance formulation. The performance of the evaporation schemes using the , , and their combination resistance approaches to parameterize evaporation from bare soil surfaces is discussed. For that purpose, the nine schemes, based on a different dependence of and on volumetric soil moisture content and its saturated value, are used.The tests of performances of the considered schemes are based on time integrations by the land surface module (BARESOIL) using observed data. The 23 data sets at a bare surface experimental site in Rimski anevi, Yugoslavia on chernozem soil, were used for the resistance algorithm evaluation. The quality of the schemes was compared with the observed values of the latent heat flux using several statistical parameters.     

Stable boundary layers: observations,models and variability part II: Data analysis and averaging effects

As argued in Part I (Derbyshire, 1995), variability is a key issue in stable boundary layers, and differences in variability between observations and idealized models may imply sytematic biases. Here we discuss how data analysis can be geared to allow for variability and thus consistency with models. Instrumental errors, smoothing methods and vertical discretization are considered. We then show how statistical averaging broadly improves the agreement of heterogeneous results in Part I with the Brost-Wyngaard closure. Recommendations are made for the information needed to analyze apparent differences between homogeneous and heterogeneous stable boundary layers.Part of UK Meteorological Office Atmospheric Processes Research Division     

Modelling of turbulence over low hills and varying surface roughness

Neutral surface layer flow over low hills and varying surface roughness is considered with emphasis on closure schemes in relation to the prediction of turbulence quantities. The equations are linearised, Fourier transformed in the two horizontal directions and solved by means of a finite difference method in the vertical. Three closure schemes are. employed, namely mixing length, E- and e-- closure where E, and indicate that differential equations are used for turbulent kinetic energy, dissipation rate and shear stress. Model calculations are compared with experimental data for the step in roughness problem and for the Askervein hill. The mean flow results turn out to be relatively insensitive to the closure scheme. The shear stress and the dimensionless shear, however, are much better predicted with the E- equations than with mixing length closure. In the outer layer of the hill problem, advection of shear stress becomes important. An equation for is needed here.     

Trajectory Curvature As A Selection Criterion For valid Lagrangian Stochastic Dispersion Models

Among well-mixed multi-dimensional Lagrangian stochastic (LS) dispersion models, we observe that those in poorest agreement with observations produce spiralling trajectories, with an associated reduction in dispersion. We therefore investigate statistics of increments d ' to the orientation '= arctan(W'/U') of the Lagrangian velocity-fluctuation vector – as a possible means to distinguish the better LS models within the well-mixed class. Zero-spin models, having d' = 0, are found to provide best agreement with observations. It is not clear however, whether imposition of the zero-spin property selects (in conjunction with the well-mixed condition) a unique model.     

PHYSICAL IMPACTS OF CLIMATIC CHANGE ON DELTAIC COASTAL SYSTEMS (II): DRIVING TERMS

The evaluation of the impact of climatic change on deltaic coastal systems requires establishing a reference situation. As deltaic coastal zones are highly dynamic areas, it is necessary to define the reference situation as a function of their present evolutive stage. This implies characterizing coastal processes as a complex system defined by the links between driving or forcing terms and the coastal response at different temporal and spatial scales (long/large, medium and episodic scales). Starting from classical previous works on deltaic systems and including all available field and conceptual knowledge to properly consider present conditions (largely regulated rivers, subsidence, etc.) a detailed methodology to analyse forcing or driving agents at the three mentioned scales is presented. This methodology which developed the general approach presented in a companion paper, will be followed by a future paper focusing on the analysis of the coastal response.