The decay of the ALPEX low-level jet: Fine structure observation by aircraft data

Summary This case study describes the decay of a low-level jet in the alpine foreland as a planetary boundary layer phenomenon. Few measurements are known, which document this transition period of the boundary layer from night to day. Analysis of 1 and 20 Hz data of temperature and the three wind components of the ELECTRA aircraft mission on April 16, 1982 between 5 and 11 GMT allow an assessment of the temporal and spatial fine structure during the decay phase of the jet in the morning. Using the flight technique of horizontal and vertical zigzagging, the coupling of thermal stability, turbulence intensity, topography and behavior of the jet is shown.Vertical profiles and cross-sectional analysis of mean and turbulent parameters document three separate jet decay phases: decoupling, transition and erosion. During the first phase, the jet maximum is situated between surface and synoptic inversions, decoupling from surface friction and prohibiting momentum transport towards the free atmosphere. During the transition phase, the jet maximum increases in altitude. In the erosion phase, the jet covers the top of a developing well mixed layer. Turbulent mixing and entrainment on top of the layer are responsible for the decay of the jet. This is confirmed by calculating the decrease of the wind speed maximum from the turbulent momentum flux and the growth rate of the mixing layer by means of a mixed layer model in comparison to the measured wind speed jump and to other observations.With 7 Figures     

Pressure drag on the Dinaric Alps during the ALPEX SOP

Summary During the ALPEX SOP (March–April, 1982), microbarographic measurements were conducted on the Northern Adriatic as a part of research on the Bora. In this paper the measured pressure field around the Dinaric Alps is used to compute the total pressure drag vectors using Archimedes law.The 3-hourly temporal variations of these drag vectors is examined for different synoptic events. During the anticyclonic calm weather period at the end of March and beginning of April there is evidence of a divrnal drag variation. Regardless of magnitude, the pressure drag vectors seem to be aligned almost perpendicular to the main mountain ridge. During synoptic scale flow developments the drag direction change usually appears steady and slow (1–2 days). However during an exceptionally strong frontal passage (8/9 April) this time scale was much shorter (3–6 hours). The maximae of the pressure drag during SOP are always connected with Bora periods and the magnitudes of the drag values indicate that during these events there is a major sink of atmospheric momentum over the Dinaric Alpine region.With 11 Figures     

Diagnosis of mesoscale structures in cases of lee cyclogenesis during ALPEX

Summary Several cases of lee cyclogenesis that occurred during ALPEX-SOP have been analyzed, with the aim of separating the large scale structures from the subsynoptic/meso-a scale features that are characteristic of this meteorological phenomenon. The results presented here are mainly based on composites of the analyzed cases. We assume that the deformation caused by the orography can be, at least to a reasonable extent, isolated from the undisturbed state using scale separation. The analysis technique we employ provides the scale separation as built-in in the interpolation algorithm. The scale separation error due to the large inhomogeneities of the data density distribution is partly corrected using a method described in the text. The orographic disturbance appears in different mesoscale fields as a quasiantisymmetric dipolar structure. For example, high/low pressure, cold/warm temperature and anticyclonic/cyclonic couplets characterize the mesoscale fields near the Alps. A qualitative agreement is found with the structure of the orographically induced perturbations predicted by the normal mode theory of lee cyclogenesis.With 7 Figures     

夏季西太平洋越赤道气流的谱分析

本文用波谱分析方法,对1976年6月15日至9日12日赤道上105°E、120°E和150°E附近850毫巴的经向风分量作了分析。将这三处经向风功率谱与同一时期澳大利亚地面气压的功率谱进行比较,我们发现:105°E、150°E的功率谱和澳大利亚地面气压的功率谱都有明显的15天周期,而120°E克的功率谱则没有。 我们还计算了赤道上这三个经度的南风分量。风速最大的是150°E,其次在105°E。120°E的风速比前二处小1—2米/秒。 由此我们认为:夏季来自澳大利亚的气流有两个通道,一个在105°E(新加坡)附近,另一个在150°E(俾斯麦群岛)附近。     

South foehn studies since the ALPEX experiment

Summary After the ALPEX Special Observing Period in 1982, further field measurement campaigns have been carried out to study the south foehn in the Eastern Alps. In addition, foehn situations were investigated statistically on the basis of a 4-years-record of upper-air and synoptic data combined with data from a special regional network. In this paper, distribution of air masses around the Alps, flow patterns and the typical evolution of a foehn situation are illustrated by the case 8 November 1982. Several possible definitions of shallow foehn are given, yielding a share of approximately 10% of shallow foehn observations. Mainly statistical data are used to falsify the wide-spread version of the thermodynamical foehn theory attributing the warmth of the foehn to release of latent heat and postulating foehn air rising from the ground of the Po Valley. Instead of this, the foehn air originates from 2000–2500 m asl over the Po Valley, while the air near ground remains blocked. The potential temperature difference between southern and northern valleys during foehn is to be explained by the stable stratification in the south, not by the effects of precipitation. These findings are in agreement with Hann's original theory.With 10 Figures     

On the chaotic behavior and predictability of the real atmosphere

In this paper the concept of Chaos and its applications to the study of predictability theory is introduced. The au-thor’s attempt is to give a general overview of ideas and methods involved in this problem to scientists, who are inter-ested in the problem of predictability but not familiar with the theory of chaos. The problem is discussed in 4 sections. In the first section, the concept of chaos and the study methods are outlined briefly; in the second section, the methods of quantitatively measuring the main characteristics of chaos which are the basis for the predictability theory are in-troduced; the third section discusses the time series analysis for directly studying chaotic phenomena in practical prob-lems; and the last section presents some research results on the chaotic characteristics and the predictability of the real atmosphere.     

On the predictability of decadal changes in the North Pacific

 The predictability of decadal changes in the North Pacific is investigated with an ocean general circulation model forced by simplified and realistic atmospheric conditions. First, the model is forced by a spatially fixed wind stress anomaly pattern characteristic for decadal North Pacific climate variations. The time evolution of the wind stress anomaly is chosen to be sinusoidal, with a period of 20 years. In this experiment different physical processes are found to be important for the decadal variations: baroclinic Rossby waves dominate the response. They move westward and lead to an adjustment of the subtropical and subpolar gyre circulations in such a way that anomalous temperatures in the central North Pacific develop as a delayed response to the preceding wind stress anomalies. This delayed response provides not only a negative feedback but also bears the potential for long-term predictions of upper ocean temperature changes in the central North Pacific. It is shown by additional experiments that once these Rossby waves have been excited, decadal changes of the upper ocean temperatures in the central North Pacific evolve without any further anomalous atmospheric forcing. In the second part, the model is forced by surface heat flux and wind stress observations for the period 1949–1993. It is shown that the same physical processes which were found to be important in the simplified experiments also govern the evolution of the upper ocean in this more realistic simulation. The 1976/77 cooling can be mainly attributed to anomalously strong horizontal advection due to the delayed response to persistent wind stress curl anomalies in the early 1970s rather than local anomalous atmospheric forcing. This decadal change could have been predicted some years in advance. The subsequent warming in the late 1980s, however, cannot be mainly explained by advection. In this case, local anomalous atmospheric forcing needs to be considered. Received: 6 July 1998 / Accepted: 16 October 1999     

On NAO’s predictability through the DFA method

Summary In this paper, the authors address a predictability study of the NAO index by using the time series analysis method known as “detrended fluctuation analysis” (DFA). This technique provides a quantitative measure of predictability by computing several piecewise fits (either linear or higher degree polynomial ones) to the cumulative series of fluctuations associated to the original series. The measurements, made on several examples of data available in the Internet, agree with other previous analyses (Fernández et al, 2003) assessing that the NAO signal is a slightly red one, whose prediction needs a deeper understanding of the underlying physics.     

A variational objective analysis scheme for analysis of the ALPEX data set

Summary A scheme for analysis of the ALPEX II-b data set is described. Using the calculus of variations in developing the analysis equations, considerations were consistent with requirements necessary for computing budgets for various meteorological quantities. One constraint which employs full equations of motion, reduces the momentum residual to any desired level based on selection of a weighting function. Time tendencies are assumed to be observed, while nonlinear terms can be observed or iterated. At the same time, mass continuity is completely imposed by application of a strong constraint. Approximation of terrain as a series of blocks in thex, y, p domain insures that the model terrain will block the flow to the maximum extent possible in a way consistent with the Alpine range. Comparative analyses are presented illustrating how coupling the variables increases resolution of fine scale features like fronts and jet maxima. Comparison with independently collected research aircraft data over the Mediterranean Sea also shows how the scheme can provide improved analysis even over data sparse areas. Derived vertical motion fields compare well with middle and upper level cloud patterns for a case of rapid cyclogenesis.

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Ein variierbares, objektives Analyseschema zur Analyse der ALPEX-Daten

Zusammenfassung Es wird ein Schema für die Analyse der ALPEX II-b Daten beschrieben. Zur Entwicklung der Analysengleichung wurde die Variationsrechnung verwendet. Diese Überlegungen waren vereinbar mit den Voraussetzungen, die zur Berechnung der Bilanzen verschiedener meteorologischer Größen notwendig sind. Eine Einschränkung, die vollständigen Bewegungsgleichungen betreffend, reduziert die Impulsdifferenz mit Hilfe der Auswahl einer Gewichtsfunktion auf jede gewünschte Höhe. Zeittendenzen werden als beobachtet angenommen, während nichtlineare Terme beobachtet oder iteriert sein können. Gleichzeitig ist Massenerhaltung durch Anwendung einer starken Einschränkung vollständig gegeben. Durch Annäherung des Geländes in Form von Blöcken imx, y, p-Bereich wird sichergestellt, daß das Modellgelände die Strömung im größtmöglichen Ausmaß, annähernd vergleichbar mit der Alpenkette, hemmt. Die dargestellten vergleichenden Analysen zeigen, wie die Koppelung von Variablen die Auflösung feinskaliger Merkmale wie Fronten und Windmaxima verbessert. Ein Vergleich mit unabhängig gesammelten Daten von Flügen über dem Mittelmeer zeigt ebenfalls, daß das Schema sogar über datenarmen Gebieten verbesserte Analysen ermöglicht. Abgeleitete Vertikalbewegungsfelder entsprechen gut den mittleren und höheren Wolkenmustern im Fall einer schnellen Tiefdruckentwicklung.

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With 9 Figures     

埃尔尼诺/南方涛动的可预报性

本文利用近百余年达尔文站(Darwin,12°S,131°E)月平均气压距平值(DP)的时间序列以及近五十余年达尔文与塔希提(Tahiti,17°S,150°W)两站月平均气压距平差值(DTP)的时间序列,分析了埃尔尼诺/南方涛动(ENSO)演变过程的浑沌特性,结果发现,ENSO是一个具有有限个自由度的复杂的浑沌系统(相应于DP和DTP的关联维数分别为6.8和6.6);它的以最大Lyapunov指数(λ_1)和二阶Rrnyi熵(k_2)表征的可预报时间尺度(误差增长一倍所需时间)对于DP分别为32个月和11个月,对于DTP分别为31个月和15个月。此外本文还研究了被光滑的DP时间序列,结果表明,适当的滤波可以降低系统的关联维数,并改善系统的可预报性。例如,在一个九点加权滑动平均滤波器的作用下,以λ_1表征的DP的可预报时间尺度延长了一倍。     

A down-valley low-level jet event during T-REX 2006

A prolonged down-valley flow and low-level jet were observed throughout the Enhanced Observing Period 4 (April 28–29) of the 2006 Terrain-induced Rotor Experiment, held in the Owens Valley of California near the town of Independence. The low-level jet was strongest during the nocturnal hours, and special field observations captured important details of the event lifecycle. High-resolution simulations using the Weather Research and Forecasting numerical weather prediction model were generated, with underlying assumptions being that model resolution, boundary layer physics, and nesting configuration would be dominant controlling factors in reproducing the jet. The large-scale conditions were dry throughout the event, so moist physics were not a significant forcing consideration. For the control simulation, a two-nest (4.5 and 1.5 km grid spacing) configuration with 90 vertical levels was applied. Additionally, the Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination planetary boundary and surface layer option were selected due to its published performance under conditions of stable stratification. Three other sensitivity simulations were run for comparison, differing from the control just in the choice of vertical resolution (60 versus 90 levels with Quasi-Normal Scale Elimination) and planetary boundary/surface layer physics (90 levels/Mellor-Yamada-Jancic; 90 levels/Yonsei State University). Although the gross evolution (location, height, and timing) of the low-level jet is captured by all model runs (with the 1.5 km inner nest providing the more accurate details), there were at times large underestimations of the nocturnal jet speed max in each simulation (approaching 100 % error, or up to almost 10 m s^?1). Overall, the variations of vertical resolution and planetary boundary/surface physics against the control seemed to (1) yield little overall improvement to statistical or subjective evaluations; (2) do little to improve deficiencies in reproducing the magnitude strength of the nocturnal down-valley low-level jet. Since the cold-start simulations spanned 36 h (including a 12-h spin-up period), it was suspected that the lateral boundary conditions imposed on the outermost 4.5 km nest might negatively impact the interior model solutions in the Owens Valley. To investigate this possibility, an additional simulation was executed by adding two extra nests to the control configuration: an outer 13.5 km and an inner 500 m. This simulation produced a better evolution of the nocturnal low-level jet and especially the speed max. The addition of the larger 13.5 km nest appears more critical to this improvement than that of the extra spatial resolution provided by the inner 500 m nest, which supports the idea that accurate capturing of the large-scale synoptic condition was critical in reproducing important details of this down-valley low-level jet event. The extra 500-m resolution did seem to improve the morning valley cold pool forecast.     

地形对低空地转气流上重力惯性波稳定性的影响

研究指出,对西风地转气流,地形的南坡有利于重力惯性波的不稳定,北坡不利于波动的不 稳定发展;对东风气流,情况与此相反.重力惯性波不稳定的条件是(u+g~*A/f)~2≥g~*H.     

Interannual variability of East African rainfall: role of seasonal transitions of the low-level cross-equatorial flow

Climate Dynamics - During boreal spring and fall, the low-level cross-equatorial flow along the East African coast weakens and reverses. These transition periods are embedded within the East...     

Objective cross-sectional analysis of diabatic circulations and vertical motions using ALPEX data

Summary Frontal propagation and development in the presence of orography and moisture are examined using the objective cross-section analysis method of Shapiro and Hastings (1973). The method is applied to a real data case on 4–5 March 1982 during the Alpine Experiment (ALPEX). Surface data are added to the analysis method to improve the lowlevel depiction of the frontal zone.The ageostrophic winds are computed from the isentropic representation of =dp/dt and the horizontal momentum equations. Diabatic contributions to the circulation, computed from the isentropic form of the continuity equation, are compared with observed moisture fields. Cross-sections of observed data and computed vertical motions are compared with similar fields computed from analyses on pressure surfaces. It is shown that the Shapiro and Hastings scheme provides a relatively clear depiction of the small-scale frontal features in the thermal and wind field but the analysis also exhibits more noise, which can have an adverse effect on the accurarcy of derived fields.With 8 Figures     

暴雨过程中低空急流形成的诊断分析

一、前言 分析预报经验指出,较大范围暴雨的发生同在1—4公里间低空出现强风区有密切联系,一般认为在850mb面上出现16m/s或以上的强风区可作为预报大到暴雨的一个很好指标。这种低空强风区即称为低空急流,在我国大多数为西南风急流,也有少数为东南风急流。低空急流不但能把低层水汽、热量集中往下游输送,使下游地区造成或增大     

On the Application of a Genetic Algorithm to the Predictability Problems Involving "On-Off" Switches

The lower bound of maximum predictable time can be formulated into a constrained nonlinear opti- mization problem, and the traditional solutions to this problem are the filtering method and the conditional nonlinear optimal perturbation (CNOP) method. Usually, the CNOP method is implemented with the help of a gradient descent algorithm based on the adjoint method, which is named the ADJ-CNOP. However, with the increasing improvement of actual prediction models, more and more physical processes are taken into consideration in models in the form of parameterization, thus giving rise to the on-off switch problem, which tremendously affects the effectiveness of the conventional gradient descent algorithm based on the ad- joint method. In this study, we attempted to apply a genetic algorithm (GA) to the CNOP method, named GA-CNOP, to solve the predictability problems involving on-off switches. As the precision of the filtering method depends uniquely on the division of the constraint region, its results were taken as benchmarks, and a series of comparisons between the ADJ-CNOP and the GA-CNOP were performed for the modified Lorenz equation. Results show that the GA-CNOP can always determine the accurate lower bound of maximum predictable time, even in non-smooth cases, while the ADJ-CNOP, owing to the effect of on-off switches, often yields the incorrect lower bound of maximum predictable time. Therefore, in non-smooth cases, using GAs to solve predictability problems is more effective than using the conventional optimization algorithm based on gradients, as long as genetic operators in GAs are properly configured.     

用轴对称的平衡模式对热带气旋发展过程中积云动量垂直混合作用的模拟

经过新中国成立以来多次中尺度天气试验研究,江淮以南地区暴雨和强降水的中尺度天气动力学研究取得长足进展。其进展主要体现在两个方面:一是用较高分辨率的观测资料（包括地面和高空探测的加密观测以及卫星和雷达的观测）对形成暴雨和强降水的中尺度天气系统的结构特征和生命史过程建立了天气学概念模型,特别是对暴雨和强降水有重要影响的α中尺度和β中尺度对流系统,建立了观测个例的中尺度物理模型;二是探索了暴雨和强降水的动力学和热力学的物理机制,为精细化数值模式的设计提供了理论支撑,为灾害性天气预测预警提供了技术支持。本文在以往暴雨和强降水研究的基础上,着重对暴雨和强降水的中尺度天气科学试验、江淮以南地区暴雨和强降水发生主要区域的中尺度天气动力学研究进行了概述。