Synoptic weather conditions during the pilot study of Bay of Bengal and Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX)

BOBMEX-Pilot was organised from 23rd October–11th November, 1998 when the seasonal trough had already shifted to south Bay of Bengal. The activity during this period was marked by the development of a monsoon depression from 26th–29th October that weakened over the sea; onset of northeast monsoon along the east coast of India on 29th October; a low pressure area that formed on 2nd November over southwest Bay off Sri Lanka — southTamilnadu coast; and another cyclonic circulation that formed towards the end of the BOBMEX-Pilot period. This paper describes the development of these synoptic systems through synoptic charts and satellite data.     

Some salient features of the atmosphere observed over the north Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX

This paper describes the near surface characteristics and vertical variations based on the observations made at 17.5‡N and 89‡E from ORV Sagar Kanya in the north Bay of Bengal during the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) carried out in July–August 1999. BOBMEX captured both the active and weak phases of convection. SST remained above the convection threshold throughout the BOBMEX. While the response of the SST to atmospheric forcing was clearly observed, the response of the atmosphere to SST changes was not clear. SST decreased during periods of large scale precipitation, and increased during a weak phase of convection. It is shown that the latent heat flux at comparable wind speeds was about 25–50% lower over the Bay during BOBMEX compared to that over the Indian Ocean during other seasons and tropical west Pacific. On the other hand, the largest variations in the surface daily net heat flux are observed over the Bay during BOBMEX. SST predicted using observed surface fluxes showed that 1-D heat balance model works sometime but not always, and horizontal advection is important. The high resolution Vaisala radiosondes launched during BOBMEX could clearly bring out the changes in the vertical structure of the atmosphere between active and weak phases of convection. Convective Available Potential Energy of the surface air decreased by 2–3 kJ kg^-1 following convection, and recovered in a time period of one or two days. The mid tropospheric relative humidity and water vapor content, and wind direction show the major changes between the active and weak phases of convection.     

Thermohaline structure and circulation in the upper layers of the southern Bay of Bengal during BOBMEX-Pilot (October–November 1998)

Hydrographic data collected on board ORV Sagar Kanya in the southern Bay of Bengal during the BOBMEX-Pilot programme (October–November 1998) have been used to describe the thermohaline structure and circulation in the upper 200 m water column of the study region. The presence of seasonal Inter-Tropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ) over the study area, typically characterized with enhanced cloudiness and flanked by the respective east/northeast winds on its northern part and west/southwest winds on its southern part, has led to net surface heat loss of about 55 W/m². The sea surface dynamic topography relative to 500 db shows that the upper layer circulation is characterised by a cyclonic gyre encompassing the study area. The eastward flowing Indian Monsoon Current (IMC) between 5‡N and 7‡N in the south and its northward branching along 87‡E up to 13‡N appear to feed the cyclonic gyre. The Vessel-Mounted Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (VM-ADCP) measured currents confirm the presence of the cyclonic gyre in the southern Bay of Bengal during the withdrawing phase of the southwest monsoon from the northern/central parts of the Bay of Bengal.     

Impact of global warming on cyclonic disturbances over south Asian region

A state-of-the-art regional climate modelling system, known as PRECIS (Providing REgional Climates for Impacts Studies) developed by the Hadley Centre for Climate Prediction and Research, UK is applied over the Indian domain to investigate the impact of global warming on the cyclonic disturbances such as depressions and storms. The PRECIS simulations at 50 × 50 km horizontal resolution are made for two time slices, present (1961–1990) and the future (2071–2100), for two socioeconomic scenarios A2 and B2. The model simulations under the scenarios of increasing greenhouse gas concentrations and sulphate aerosols are analysed to study the likely changes in the frequency, intensity and the tracks of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean (Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea) and the Indian landmass during monsoon season. The model overestimates the frequency of cyclonic disturbances over the Indian subcontinent in baseline simulations (1961–1990). The change is evaluated towards the end of present century (2071–2100) with respect to the baseline climate. The present study indicates that the storm tracks simulated by the model are southwards as compared to the observed tracks during the monsoon season, especially for the two main monsoon months, viz., July and August. The analysis suggests that the frequency of cyclonic disturbances forming over north Indian Ocean is likely to reduce by 9% towards the end of the present century in response to the global warming. However, the intensity of cyclonic disturbances is likely to increase by about 11% compared to the present.     

Impact of sea surface temperature in modulating movement and intensity of tropical cyclones

It is well recognized that sea surface temperature (SST) plays a dominant role in the formation and intensification of tropical cyclones. A number of observational/empirical studies were conducted at different basins to investigate the influence of SST on the intensification of tropical cyclones and in turn, modification in SST by the cyclone itself. Although a few modeling studies confirmed the sensitivity of model simulation/forecast to SST, it is not well quantified, particularly for Bay of Bengal cyclones. The present study is designed to quantify the sensitivity of SST on mesoscale simulation of an explosively deepening storm over the Bay of Bengal, i.e., Orissa super cyclone (1999). Three numerical experiments are conducted with climatological SST, NCEP (National Center for Environmental Prediction) skin temperature as SST, and observed SST (satellite derived) toward 5-day simulation of the storm using mesoscale model MM5. At model initial state, NCEP skin temperature and observed SST over the Bay of Bengal are 1–2°C warmer than climatological SST, but cooler by nearly 1°C along the coastline. Observed SST shows a number of warm patches in the Bay of Bengal compared with NCEP skin temperature. The simulation results indicate that the sea surface temperature has a significant impact on model-simulated track and intensity of the cyclonic storm. The track and intensity of the storm is better simulated with the use of satellite-observed SST.     

A statistical cyclone intensity prediction (SCIP) model for the Bay of Bengal

A statistical model for predicting the intensity of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal has been proposed. The model is developed applying multiple linear regression technique. The model parameters are determined from the database of 62 cyclones that developed over the Bay of Bengal during the period 1981–2000. The parameters selected as predictors are: initial storm intensity, intensity changes during past 12 hours, storm motion speed, initial storm latitude position, vertical wind shear averaged along the storm track, vorticity at 850 hPa, Divergence at 200 hPa and sea surface temperature (SST). When the model is tested with the dependent samples of 62 cyclones, the forecast skill of the model for forecasts up to 72 hours is found to be reasonably good. The average absolute errors (AAE) are less than 10 knots for forecasts up to 36 hours and maximum forecast error of order 14 knots occurs at 60 hours and 72 hours. When the model is tested with the independent samples of 15 cyclones (during 2000 to 2007), the AAE is found to be less than 13 knots (ranging from 5.1 to 12.5 knots) for forecast up to 72 hours. The model is found to be superior to the empirical model proposed by Roy Bhowmik et al (2007) for the Bay of Bengal.     

Meso-scale atmospheric events promote phytoplankton blooms in the coastal Bay of Bengal

The Bay of Bengal is considered to be a low productive region compared to the Arabian Sea based on conventional seasonal observations. Such seasonal observations are not representative of a calendar year since the conventional approach might miss episodic high productive events associated with extreme atmospheric processes. We examined here the influence of extreme atmospheric events, such as heavy rainfall and cyclone Sidr, on phytoplankton biomass in the western Bay of Bengal using both in situ time-series observations and satellite derived Chlorophyll a (Chl a) and sea surface temperature (SST). Supply of nutrients through the runoff driven by episodic heavy rainfall (234 mm) on 4–5 October 2007 caused an increase in Chl a concentration by four times than the previous in the coastal Bay was observed within two weeks. Similar increase in Chl a, by 3 to 10 times, was observed on the right side of the cyclone Sidr track in the central Bay of Bengal after the cyclone Sidr. These two episodic events caused phytoplankton blooms in the western Bay of Bengal which enhanced ~40% of fishery production during October–December 2007 compared to that in the same period in 2006.     

Impact of various synthetic vortices on cyclone track prediction

Sensitivity experiments are conducted for three cases of cyclones for investigating the impact of different vortex initialization schemes on the structure and track prediction of the cyclone using India Meteorological Department’s Limited Area Model. The surface wind and pressure profiles generated using Holland and Rankine initialization schemes differ from each other. These different generated profiles are compared with the actual data and the root mean square error (RMSE) was calculated between them. In case of the Holland vortex, ‘b’ is found to be equal to 1.5 and 2.0 respectively for two cases of very severe cyclonic storms in the Arabian Sea, namely 6–10 June 1998 and 16–20 May 1999 and 2.25 for the severe cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal. The ‘α’ parameter in Rankine’s scheme was found to be 0.5 for two cases and 0.4 for the third system. This shows that cyclones differ even if they attain the same intensity. The values of these parameters i.e. ‘b’ and ‘α’ are used for generating the synthetic wind data for individual cyclones and the same is used in the data assimilation system. The analysis and forecast generated for the above cases using the Holland scheme show that the simulated structure has characteristics closer to the actual storm; however, the Rankine scheme shows a weaker circulation. The mean track error for three cases in the Holland scheme is 93, 149, 257 and 307 km in 12-, 24-, 36- and 48-h forecast. The mean track errors for the Rankine scheme are 152, 274, 345 and 327 km, respectively, for the same period.     

Inter-annual variability of summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa (India) in relation to cyclonic disturbances

The summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa, a state on the eastern coast of India, is more significantly related than Indian summer monsoon rainfall (ISMR) to the cyclonic disturbances developing over the Bay of Bengal. Orissa experiences floods and droughts very often due to variation in the characteristics of these disturbances. Hence, an attempt was made to find out the inter-annual variability in the rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season (June–September). For this purpose, different statistical characteristics, such as mean, coefficient of variation, trends and periodicities in the rainfall and the frequencies of different categories of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa, were analysed from 100 years (1901–2000) of data. The basic objective of the study was to find out the contribution of inter-annual variability in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances to the inter-annual variability of monsoon rainfall over Orissa. The relationship between summer monsoon rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa shows temporal variation. The correlation between them has significantly decreased since the 1950s. The variation in their relationship is mainly due to the variation in the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa. The variability of both rainfall and total cyclonic disturbances has been above normal since the 1960s, leading to more floods and droughts over Orissa during recent years. The inter-annual variability of seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequency of cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa during monsoon season show a quasi-biennial oscillation period of 2–2.8 years. There is least impact of El Nino southern oscillation (ENSO) on inter-annual variability of both the seasonal rainfall over Orissa and the frequencies of monsoon depressions/total cyclonic disturbances affecting Orissa.     

Thermodynamic structure of the marine atmosphere over the region 80–87°E along 13°N during August (phase II) BOBMEX-99

Thermodynamic structure of the marine atmosphere in the region between 80 and 87‡E along 13‡N over the Bay of Bengal was studied using 13 high resolution radiosonde profiles from surface-400 hPa collected onboard ORV Sagar Kanya during the period 27th–30th August, during BOBMEX-99. Saturation point concept, mixing line analysis and conserved variable diagrams have been used to identify boundary layer characteristics such as air mass movement and stability of the atmosphere. The results showed relatively dry air near the ocean surface between 1000 and 950 hPa. This feature is confirmed by the conserved teta_v structure in this layer. Further, teta_v seldom showed any inversions in this region. The teta_e and teta_es profiles showed persistent low cloud layers between 900 and 700 hPa. The conserved variable diagrams (teta_e-q) showed the existence of double mixing line structures approximately at 950 and 700 hPa levels.     

Impact of Ganges–Brahmaputra interannual discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during 1992–1999 period

This study investigates the impact of monthly Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge variations on Bay of Bengal salinity and temperature during the period 1992–1999. The Ganges–Brahmaputra river discharge is characterized by a well-defined seasonal cycle with strong interannual variations. The highest/lowest yearly peak discharge occurs in summer 1998/summer 1992, with 1998 value amounting to twice that of 1992. This river discharge is then used to force an ocean general circulation model. Our main result is that the impact of these rivers on the variability of Bay of Bengal sea surface salinity is strong in the northern part, with excess run-off forcing fresh anomalies, and vice versa. Most of the years, the influence of the interannual variability of river discharge on the Bay salinity does not extend south of ~10°N. This stands in contrast with the available observations and is probably linked to the relatively coarse resolution of our model. However, the extreme discharge anomaly of 1998 is exported through the southern boundary of the Bay and penetrates the south-eastern Arabian Sea a few months after the discharge peak. In response to the discharge anomalies, the model simulates significant mixed-layer temperature anomalies in the northern Bay of Bengal. This has the potential to influence the climate of the area. From our conclusions, it appears necessary to use a numerical model with higher resolution (both on the horizontal and vertical) to quantitatively investigate the upper Bay of Bengal salinity structure.     

Thermohaline features of the subsurface cyclonic Eddy the south central Bay of Bengal during August 1999

Analysis of the spatial data collected along two sections of temperature and salinity from Chennai to 13‡N and 87‡E and back to Chennai onboard INS Sagardhwani during the Bay of Bengal Monsoon Experiment (BOBMEX) from 10th to 20th August 1999 revealed the presence of a prominent cyclonic eddy centered around 280 km away from the coast. Analysis of the dissipation rate of the cyclonic eddy from transect one to transect two and from the analysis of the TOPEX data, it may be inferred that the cyclonic eddy is possibly due to the presence of westward propagating Rossby waves in the Bay of Bengal.     

Observations of trace gases and aerosols over the Indian Ocean during the monsoon transition period

Characteristics of trace gases (O₃, CO, CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O) and aerosols (particle size of 2.5 micron) were studied over the Arabian Sea, equatorial Indian Ocean and southwest part of the Bay of Bengal during the monsoon transition period (October–November, 2004). Flow of pollutants is expected from south and southeast Asia during the monsoonal transition period due to the patterns of wind flow which are different from the monsoon period. This is the first detailed report on aerosols and trace gases during the sampled period as the earlier Bay of Bengal Experiment (BOBMEX), Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX) and Indian Ocean Experiments (INDOEX) were during monsoon seasons. The significant observations during the transition period include: (i) low ozone concentration of the order of 5 ppbv around the equator, (ii) high concentrations of CO₂, CH₄ and N₂O and (iii) variations in PM2.5 of 5–20μg/m³.     

Impact of a Tropical Cyclone on Coastal Upwelling Processes

A three-dimensional numerical model is described to study theresponse of a coastal ocean excited by a tropical cyclone in the Bay of Bengal. The numericalexperiments have been carried out using the model to understand the dynamics and thermodynamics ofthe ocean due to different cyclonic systems approaching in different directions. In the firstexperiment, the model is used to simulate the vertical thermal structure of the ocean as a response ofpassage of the less intensified 1997 cyclone, which was skirting the east coast of India before crossingthe Bangladesh coast. The simulations are compared with the buoy data available during the storm period.In the next experiment, it is considered an idealized cyclone with hurricane winds movingnormal to the east coast of India crossing between Visakhapatnam and Kakinada to evolve thermalstructure and currents of the ocean. A net decrease of the SST of 6–7 °C is simulated whenthe severe cyclonic storm moved over the coastal ocean.     

Atmospheric correction for sea surface temperature retrieval from single thermal channel radiometer data onboard Kalpana satellite

An atmospheric correction method has been applied on sea surface temperature (SST) retrieval algorithm using Very High Resolution Radiometer (VHRR) single window channel radiance data onboard Kalpana satellite (K-SAT). The technique makes use of concurrent water vapour fields available from Microwave Imager onboard Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM/TMI) satellite. Total water vapour content and satellite zenith angle dependent SST retrieval algorithm has been developed using Radiative Transfer Model [MODTRAN ver3.0] simulations for Kalpana 10.5–12.5 μm thermal window channel. Retrieval of Kalpana SST (K-SST) has been carried out for every half-hourly acquisition of Kalpana data for the year 2008 to cover whole annual cycle of SST over Indian Ocean (IO). Validation of the retrieved corrected SST has been carried out using near-simultaneous observations of ship and buoys datasets covering Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal and IO regions. A significant improvement in Root Mean Square Deviation (RMSD) of K-SST with respect to buoy (1.50–1.02 K) and to ship datasets (1.41–1.19 K) is seen with the use of near real-time water vapour fields of TMI. Furthermore, comparison of the retrieved SST has also been carried out using near simultaneous observations of TRMM/TMI SST over IO regions. The analysis shows that K-SST has overall cold bias of 1.17 K and an RMSD of 1.09 K after bias correction.     

Spatial distribution of atmospheric carbon monoxide over Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea: Measurements during pre-monsoon period of 2006

Indian Space Research Organization (ISRO) conducted the ‘Integrated Campaign for Aerosols, gases and Radiation Budget (ICARB)’ for a two-month pre-monsoon period in 2006 with the ocean segment covering Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea. During this campaign, carbon monoxide (CO) was continuously monitored using a non-dispersive IR analyser. Quantifying CO in ambient air is vital in determining the air quality of a region. Being toxic, CO is a criteria pollutant, but it is a weak green house gas. Globally, very few measurements exist over marine atmospheres to study its temporal pattern; particularly in situ CO measurements are few over the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea for comparison. Present measurements indicate: (i) predominant single peak in the diurnal pattern of CO over the marine atmosphere in contrast to the double peak over the continent, (ii) the mean diurnal CO over the marine atmosphere showing an increasing trend towards evening hours, (iii) the amplitude of the AN peaks over the marine atmosphere was ∼ 100 ppbv, while at a remote island site in the Indian Ocean it was ∼ 5 ppbv and (iv) high CO values were observed close to continent and the long range transport by wind also caused CO highs.     

Location-specific weather predictions for Sriharikota (13.72°N, 80.22°E) through numerical atmospheric models during satellite launch campaigns

Accurate knowledge of different meteorological parameters over a launch site is very crucial for efficient management of satellite launch operations. Local weather over the Indian satellite launch site located at Sriharikota High Altitude Range (SHAR: 13.72°N, 80.22°E) is very much dependent on the atmospheric circulation prevailing over the Bay of Bengal oceanic region and topography-induced convective activities. With a view to providing severe weather threat prediction in terms of launch commit criteria (LCC), two numerical atmospheric models namely high-resolution regional model (HRM) and advanced regional prediction system (ARPS) are made operational over SHAR in a synoptic and mesoscale domain, respectively. In the present research article, two launch campaigns through Polar Satellite Launch Vehicle (PSLV-C11 and PSLV-C12) when contrasting weather conditions prevailed over the launch site are chosen for demonstration of potential of two models in providing location-specific short-to-medium-range weather predictions meeting the needs of LCC. In the case of PSLV-C11 campaign, when the launch site underwent frequent thundershower-associated rainfall, ARPS model–derived meteorological fields were effectively used in prediction of probability of the wet spells. On the other hand, Bay of Bengal underwent severe cyclonic storm during PSLV-C12 campaign, and its formation was reasonable captured through HRM simulations. It is concluded that a combination of HRM and ARPS provide reliable short-to-medium-range weather prediction over SHAR, which has got profound importance in launch-related activities.     

Seasonal Variability of Cyclone Heat Potential in the Bay of Bengal

Monthly maps of cyclone heat potential (CHP) in the Bay of Bengalhave been prepared by using Levitus climatological data set. Seasonal variability ofCHP in the Bay of Bengal has been studied using the CTD data sets collected duringfive cruises during the period, 1993–1996. High value (>30 kcal/cm²) of CHP coincided with anticyclonic gyre (ACG) and the low value of CHP (16 kcal/cm²) coincided with thecyclonic gyre (CG). This emphasizes the importance of gyres in the distribution ofCHP, which play an important role in the intensification of cyclones/depressions.CHP is >14 kcal/cm² over Andaman Sea, southern and Central Bay of Bengal where the generation and movement of cyclones take place during post south west monsoon season (October–November). A depression formed on 07.11.95 at 11°N; 91°E and intensified into a cyclonic storm by 8th November evening and crossed Orissa Coast on 9th November 1995. A few days before its formation, the value of CHP at the origin of thiscyclone was about 20 kcal/cm². To understand the exact role of CHP in theformation and intensification of cyclones/depressions over Bay of Bengal, more intense and systematic data sets are essential.     

Surface and upper air meteorological features during onset phase of 2003 monsoon

The second campaign of the Arabian Sea Monsoon Experiment (ARMEX-II) was conducted in two phases viz., March–April and May–June 2003. In the present work, the buoy and ocean research vessel data collected during the second phase of ARMEX-II have been analysed to bring out the characteristic features of monsoon onset. The results have shown that the thermodynamical features such as build up of lower tropospheric instability and increased height of zero degree isotherm occurred about a week before the monsoon onset over Kerala and adjoining southeast Arabian Sea. There was a sharp fall in the temperature difference between 850 and 500 hPa, and the height of zero degree isotherm about 2–3 days before the monsoon onset. The flux of sensible heat was positive (sea to air) over south Arabian Sea during the onset phase. Over the Bay of Bengal higher negative (air to sea) values of sensible flux prevailed before the monsoon onset which became less negative with the advance of monsoon over that region. The pre-onset period was characterized by large sea surface temperature (SST) gradient over the Arabian Sea with rapid decrease towards north of the warm pool region. The buoy observations have shown that SST remained close to 30.5°C in the warm pool region during the pre-onset period in 2003 but only 2–3 degrees away (north of this region) SSTs were as low as 28.5–29°C. An interesting aspect of sea level pressure (SLP) variability over the Indian seas during the onset phase of summer monsoon 2003 was undoubtedly, the highest SLP in the warm pool region inspite of very high SSTs.     

Analysis on MM5 predictions at Sriharikota during northeast monsoon 2008

The Indian northeast monsoon is inherently chaotic in nature as the rainfall realised in the peninsular India depends substantially on the formation and movement of low-pressure systems in central and southwest Bay of Bengal and on the convective activity which is mainly due to the moist north-easterlies from Bay of Bengal. The objective of this study is to analyse the performance of the PSU-NCAR Mesoscale Model Version 5 (MM5), for northeast monsoon 2008 that includes tropical cyclones – Rashmi, Khai-Muk and Nisha and convective events over Sriharikota region, the rocket launch centre. The impact of objective analysis system using radiosonde observations, surface observations and Kalpana-1 satellite derived Atmospheric Motion Wind Vectors (AMV) is also studied. The performance of the model is analysed by comparing the predicted parameters like mean sea level pressure (MSLP), intensity, track and rainfall with the observations. The results show that the model simulations could capture MSLP and intensity of all the cyclones reasonably well. The dependence of the movement of the system on the environmental flow is clearly observed in all the three cases. The vector displacement error and percentage of improvement is calculated to study the impact of objective data analysis on the movement and intensity of the cyclone.