A geo-information system approach for forest fire likelihood based on causative and anti-causative factors

Innumerable forest fire spread models exist for taking a decision, but far less focus is on the real causative factors which initiate/ignite fire in an area. It has been observed that the majority of the forest fires in India are initiated due to anthropogenic factors. In this study, we develop a geo-information system approach for management of forest fire in Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary, Tamil Nadu, India, with the objective to develop a forest fire likelihood model, integrating GIS and knowledge-based approach for predicting fire-sensitive initiation areas considering major causative and anti-causative factors. Amongst the various causative factors investigated, it was found that wildlife-dependent factor (antler collection and poaching) contributed significantly to fire occurrence followed by management-dependent factors (uncontrolled tourism and grazing), with much less influence of demographic factors. Similarly, anti-causative factor (stationing of anti-poaching/ fire camps) was considered as quite significant.

The likelihood model so developed, envisaging various factors and flammability, accounted for different scenarios as a result of pair-wise comparison on an ordinal scale in a knowledge matrix. The inferential statistics computed indicated the robustness of the model and its insensitivity to moderate changes. It makes it possible for this forest fire likelihood model to predict and prevent a forest fire in an effective and scientific manner because it can assume forest fire likelihood in real time and present in proper time.     

The environmental envelope of fires in the Colombian Caribbean

Fire is an important disturbance agent for terrestrial ecosystems, particularly in tropical and subtropical regions where its occurrence is controlled by multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables. We assessed the temporal and spatial patterns of active fire detections (MODIS product MCD14ML) in the Caribbean region of Colombia between 2003 and 2015, using time series, cross-correlation, hot spot and density techniques. We also assessed the environmental envelope of active fires by evaluating the effect of multiple biophysical and anthropogenic variables on fire presence/absence using generalized linear models (GLMs). Results show that fires follow a clear intra-annual cycle, with 86% of fire events taking place during the region's main dry season (December–March). There is also inter-annual variability related to the Tropical North Atlantic (TNA) quasi-decadal climatic oscillation. Active fires exhibit a distinctive spatial pattern, with regional hotspots. The set of variables that best explain fire presence/absence include biophysical (TNA, temperature annual range, dry quarter precipitation), anthropogenic (minimum distance to towns and roads) and composite (NDVI) variables. The extensive and ongoing land cover transformation of this region, from forest to pasture and agriculture, will likely increase the extent of burned areas and future carbon fire emissions to the atmosphere.     

Forest Fire Alert System: a Geo Web GIS prioritization model considering land susceptibility and hotspots – a case study in the Carajás National Forest,Brazilian Amazon

To increase the monitoring potential of forest fires, an alert classification methodology using satellite-mapped hotspots has been established to help forest managers in the prioritization of which hotspot to be verified in the field, thus potentially improving the distribution of fire-fighting resources. A computer application was developed based on web-distributed geographical information technology whose main function is to interact automatically generated satellite hotspots and risk areas indicated in fire-susceptibility maps and classify them into five alert levels. The location of the hotspots is available continuously every 4 h, and a susceptibility map is produced daily through map algebra algorithm, which uses static (topography, vegetation and land use) and dynamic (weather) variables. Every process runs through automated geoprocessing routines. The methodology was tested during the dry period of 2007 in the Carajás National Forest, in the Brazilian Amazon, within an area of 400,000 ha. It is a critical area constantly threatened by fires caused by invasions and deforestation owing to intense agribusiness advances and mining activities in its surroundings. This situation results in observations of many hotspots inside the study area for the same day and almost the same time period, in places of extreme opposites, demanding complex rapid analysis and hindering the decision of the displacement of fire-fighting teams. Further, a major mining company operates within the National Forest area, maintaining actions of protection as part of its environmental mining license. Results are presented under three aspects: (i) the credibility of the daily susceptibility map (algorithm), which showed strong correlation between areas of greatest risks and the confirmed forest fires; (ii) the reliability of hotspots (alert levels), confirming 71% of fires; (iii) accuracy in the decision of which hotspot to be checked, which revealed the same number of verifications at different alert levels, 82% confirmed alert 5 hotspots (maximum) and only 50% from alert 1 (minimum), resulting in faster fire-fighting actions, minimizing burned areas and, in some cases, allowing fire control before its spreading. Therefore, the methodology demonstrated that GIS routines are able to determine the relationship between a reality-based, interpreted susceptibility map of the area and satellite-generated hotspots, highlighting the ones of highest hazard level through the alert classification, becoming an important tool to help decisions from the fire-control center, especially for high-risk regions. The methodology may be extrapolated to other forested areas.     

Estimating the spatial pattern of human-caused forest fires using a generalized linear mixed model with spatial autocorrelation in South Korea

Most forest fires in Korea are spatially concentrated in certain areas and are highly related to human activities. These site-specific characteristics of forest fires are analyzed by spatial regression analysis using the R-module generalized linear mixed model (GLMM), which can consider spatial autocorrelation. We examined the quantitative effect of topology, human accessibility, and forest cover without and with spatial autocorrelation. Under the assumption that slope, elevation, aspect, population density, distance from road, and forest cover are related to forest fire occurrence, the explanatory variables of each of these factors were prepared using a Geographic Information System-based process. First, we tried to test the influence of fixed effects on the occurrence of forest fires using a generalized linear model (GLM) with Poisson distribution. In addition, the overdispersion of the response data was also detected, and variogram analysis was performed using the standardized residuals of GLM. Second, GLMM was applied to consider the obvious residual autocorrelation structure. The fitted models were validated and compared using the multiple correlation and root mean square error (RMSE). Results showed that slope, elevation, aspect index, population density, and distance from road were significant factors capable of explaining the forest fire occurrence. Positive spatial autocorrelation was estimated up to a distance of 32 km. The kriging predictions based on GLMM were smoother than those of the GLM. Finally, a forest fire occurrence map was prepared using the results from both models. The fire risk decreases with increasing distance to areas with high population densities, and increasing elevation showed a suppressing effect on fire occurrence. Both variables are in accordance with the significance tests.     

气象自动站资料在黔南森林火险等级监测预报中的应用

对大量国家级和区域级气象自动站资料的获取和订正,通过对降水、气温、湿度和风速等气象因子对森林火险贡献度数学模型的计算,充分应用在黔南森林火险气象等级的实时监测和预报中。通过多点、多时段的预报值、实时监测值与实况对比检验统计,得出应用系统的实时监测准确率和预报准确率。     

Spatial Ecology of Pre –Euro‐American Fires in a Southern Rocky Mountain Subalpine Forest Landscape

Natural disturbances such as fires have been widely studied, but less is known about their spatial ecology than about other aspects of them. We reconstructed and mapped pre–Euro‐American fire history in a subalpine forest landscape in southeastern Wyoming, and analyzed the fires using GIS. Mean fire interval varies little with topography (elevation, aspect, slope) and is spatially autocorrelated at distances of at least 2 km. Fires often spread downslope, and spread more than expected from the north and south and less than expected from the west, under the influence of particular synoptic climatic conditions. The landscape of 1868 a.d., at the time of Euro‐American settlement, was strongly influenced by fires. However, it contained large patches of connected forest and few high‐contrast edges, unlike the modern landscape, which is fragmented by industrial forestry and roads. The spatial ecology of the natural fire regime may be a useful guide for management.     

RUNAWAY FIRES,SMOKE‐HAZE POLLUTION,AND UNNATURAL DISASTERS IN INDONESIA*

ABSTRACT. Fires on Sumatra and Kalimantan have taken a heavy toll on Indonesia' remaining tropical forests. Drought exacerbates the fire hazard, but it does not cause the fires, most of which have been the result of inappropriate land‐use policies and practices. Peatland fires have emitted vast quantities of smoke that periodically blanket large parts of insular Southeast Asia, impairing visibility, disrupting travel, hampering economic activity, and posing serious health risks. The development agenda of Indonesia' New Order regime paid scant attention to forest management, including the need to detect, control, and suppress unwanted fires.     

Forest fire risk maps: a GIS open source application – a case study in Norwest of Portugal

Forest fires are widely recognized as one of the most critical events in global change. Successful fire management depends on effective fire prevention, detection, and presuppression, having an adequate fire suppression capability, and consideration of fire ecology relationships. Geographical information systems (GIS) provide tools to create, transform, and combine georeferenced variables. In Portugal, as in many other countries, it is mandatory that all the municipalities produce forest fire risk maps on an annual basis, following the rules of the Portuguese Forest Authority, a governmental association. This article presents the results of a research project aimed at producing forest fire risk maps in a GIS open source environment in Portugal. The requirements of an open source application are better quality, higher reliability, more flexibility, lower cost, and an end to predatory vendor lock-in. Three different open source desktop GIS software projects were evaluated: Quantum GIS (QGIS), generalitat valenciana, Sistema d'Informacio Geografica, and Kosmo. Taking into account the skills and experience of the authors, the main advantage of QGIS relies on the easiness and quickness in developing new plug-ins, using Python language. Therefore, this project was developed in QGIS platform and the interface was created in Python. This application incorporates seven procedures under a single toolbar. The production of the forest fire risk map comprises several steps and the production of several maps: probability, susceptibility, hazard, vulnerability, economic value, potential loss, and finally the forest fire risk map. The forest fire risk map comprises five classes: very low risk (dark green), low risk (green), medium risk (yellow), high risk (orange), and very high risk (red). This application was tested in three different municipal governments of the Norwest zone of Portugal. This application has the advantages of grouping in a unique toolbar all the procedures needed to produce forest fire risk maps and is free for the institution/user. Beyond being an open source application, this application may be faster and easier when compared with the GIS proprietary solutions that usually comprise several steps and the use of different software extensions. This work presents several contributions for the area of the GIS open source applications to forest fire risk management.     

The ecogeochemical role of forest fires in the Baikal region

A study is made of the behavior of artificial radionuclides and heavy metals during a forest fire. It is shown that forest fires are accompanied by airborne migration of some heavy metals and artificial radionucleides as well as by pollution of new areas. The main depositories of elements falling out of the atmosphere are provided by forest litter, mosses, lichens, and tree needles. Up to 40% of 137Cs and 90Sr can migrate from the sites of fires, which originally were contained in the soil-vegetation cover. The elements that are carried away from the sites of fires partly deposit themselves on adjacent areas.     

三维GIS航空护林系统的建立与运行效益分析

以丽江航空护林站为研究区,通过遥感卫星影像、以及DEM数据等基础数据,建立三维GIS航护系统,实现了数据管理系统,火险预测系统、救火指挥系统、灾后评估系统,分别对森林火灾的预防、监测和扑救提供决策服务,为保护丽江护区的林区资源提供了先进的技术支持。同时,在应用模型中分析和评价了利用三维GIS系统进行火场区域定标、火场数据集成和导入的时间效率,评价和分析了局部火区标绘与采集的精度,为救火抢险,保护森林资源减少人员伤亡提供可靠的信息和决策分析。     

Mapping fire regimes in China using MODIS active fire and burned area data

Relatively little is known about vegetation fire regimes in China. In this study, we investigated fire regime characteristics and their potential drivers, utilizing information extracted from the MODerate resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS) satellite. Twelve fire regime variables were selected and computed on a regular grid over all of China, using MODIS burned area and active fire data during the period 2001 to 2016, to identify fire incidence and its inter-annual variability, seasonality, intensity, fire size distribution and vegetation types affected by fire. The variables were normalized and clustered to define six fire regimes with distinctive fire attributes. Results show that 78.6% of the land in China was affected by fire during the study period. The barren or sparsely vegetated lands of western China are nearly fire-free. Active fires were observed in Central China, but area burned was not detectable from MODIS. Forest fires in northeastern China are relatively large, infrequent, with a short fire season that peaks in non-winter seasons and higher inter-annual variability, implying a high likelihood of accidental causes. In contrast, forest fires in southern China are relatively small, frequent, with a long fire season that peaks in non-summer seasons, and lower inter-annual variability, suggesting regular use as a land management tool. Low inter-annual variability and low fire intensity were associated with cropland fires, whereas grassland fires generally exhibit the opposite traits. We have also discussed the potential drivers of each fire regime characteristics.     

Human-ignited wildfire patterns and responses to policy shifts

Development of efficient forest wildfire policies requires an understanding of the underlying reasons behind forest fire occurrences. Globally, there is a close relationship between forest wildfires and human activities; most wildfires are human events due to negligence (e.g., agricultural burning escapes) and deliberate actions (e.g., vandalism, pyromania, revenge, land use change attempts). We model the risk of wildfire as a function of the spatial pattern of urban development and the abandonment/intensity of agricultural and forestry activities, while controlling for biophysical and climatic factors. We use a count data approach to model deliberately set fires in Galicia, N.W. Spain, where wildfire is a significant threat to forest ecosystems, with nearly 100,000 wildfires recorded during a thirteen-year period (1999–2011). The spatial units of analysis are more than 3600 parishes. Data for the human influences are derived from fine-resolution maps of wildland–urban interface (WUI), housing spatial arrangements, road density, forest ownership, and vegetation type. We found wildfire risk to be higher where there are human populations and development/urbanisation pressure, as well as in unattended forest areas due to both rural exodus and a fragmented forest ownership structure that complicates the profitability of forestry practices. To better help direct management efforts, parameter estimates from our model were used to predict wildfire counts under alternative scenarios that account for variation across space on future land-use conditions. Policies that incentivize cooperative forest management and that constrain urban development in wildlands at hotspot fire locations are shown to reduce wildfire risk. Our results highlight the need for spatially targeted fire management strategies.     

Increases in fire risk due to warmer summer temperatures and wildland urban interface changes do not necessarily lead to more fires

Forest fire frequency in Mediterranean countries is expected to increase with land cover and climate changes as temperatures rise and rainfall patterns are altered. Although the cause of many Mediterranean fires remains poorly defined, most fires are of anthropogenic origin and are located in the wildland urban interface (WUI), so fire ignition risk depends on both weather and land cover characteristics. The objectives of this study were to quantify the overall trends in forest fire risk in the WUI of the Alpes-Maritimes department in SE France over a period of almost 50 years (about 1960–2009) and relate these to changes in land cover and temperature changes. Land cover for two contrasting reference catchments (236 km² and 289 km², respectively) was mapped from available aerial photographs. Changes in fire risk over time were estimated using statistical relationships defined for each type of WUI, where isolated and scattered housing present a greater risk than dense and very dense housing. Summer monthly temperatures and spring and summer precipitation were quantified over the same temporal period as land cover. Finally, trends in fire frequency and burned area were analyzed over a shorter 37 year period (1973–2009) due to the lack of available fire data before 1973. Fire risk associated with WUI expansion increased by about 18%–80% over the 1960–2009 period (depending on the catchment). Similarly, mean summer minimum and maximum monthly temperatures increased by 1.8 °C and 1.4 °C, respectively, over the same period. Summer rainfall appears to decrease over time since about the 1970's but remains highly variable. Land cover and weather changes both suggest an overall increase in fire risk. However, the number of fires and burned area have decreased significantly since about 1990. This paradoxical result is due to a change in fire-fighting strategy which reinforced the systematic extinction of fires in their early stages. Technical support in the form of improved radio communication and helicopters contributed greatly to reducing fire frequency and burned area. Surveillance and legal reforms included the introduction of field patrols and restricted access to forests during high risk periods. Although this has proven highly successful in the short term, the risk of fuel load accumulation over time remains a risk which might contribute to the development of mega-fires in extreme climatic conditions in the future.     

1200 years of fire impact on biogeochemistry as inferred from high resolution diatom analysis in a kettle lake from the Picea mariana-moss domain (Quebec, Canada)

The consequences of fire on water chemistry are important considering that major changes in the frequency and intensity of forest fires are anticipated as a result of global warming. Due to the important differences in succesionnal vegetative trends after fire between mixed-wood and coniferous-dominated forests in Quebec (Canada), we undertook a long-term paleoecological study of the impact of fires on the biogeochemistry of Lac à la Pessière, a small lake located in a conifer-dominated boreal forest ecoregion (Picea mariana-moss domain). The paleolimnological study was carried out using diatom assemblages (class:Bacillariophyceae) to reconstruct changes in environmental variables of limnological interest [pH, total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), dissolved organic carbon (DOC) and, epilimnetic carbon dioxide (CO₂)] potentially associated with fire over the last 1200 calendar years. Diatom composition and related reconstructed limnological variables were compared before and after fire events. No significant changes were systematically observed in lake chemistry associated with fire events. However, diatom-inferred epilimnetic CO₂showed a clear decreasing trend over the last 400 cal. yrs BP. The results suggest that fire-induced changes in lake chemistry are limited in catchments dominated by black spruce (Picea mariana). We hypothesize that this fact result of excess moisture associated to the thick humus layer, which likely limits the mobilization of nutrients and major ions even during a fire event.     

Monitoring deforestation with MODIS Active Fires in Neotropical dry forests: An analysis of local-scale assessments in Mexico,Brazil and Bolivia

The detection of vegetation fires using remote sensing has proven useful for highlighting areas undergoing rapid conversion in humid forests, but not in tropical dry forest (TDF). To further understand this relationship, we explored the correlation between MODIS Active Fires and forest cover change at local scales using 3 × 3 km sampling grids in three TDF landscapes in Bolivia; Mexico, and Brazil. Our analysis showed no single overall correlation among sites between the frequency of fires reported by the MODIS Active Fire Mapping product and forest cover change. Also, aggregated patterns of fire occurrence in Brazil and Bolivia did not correspond to areas with high percentage of forest loss, which indicates that the fire/deforestation relationship in TDF is not apparent in a simple fire frequency map. However, statistically significant correlations were found in sampling boxes with 50–60%, 50–70%, 50–95% forest cover at “initial state” of the time series in the Mexican site, Bolivian site and Brazilian site, respectively. Our findings suggest that complex interactions between anthropogenic fire-use, satellite-detected fires, and deforestation in highly fragmented TDF landscapes are difficult to describe at regional scales and might only be possible to analyze using finer resolution sampling grids.     

Spatial patterns and drivers of fire occurrence in a Mediterranean environment: a case study of southern Croatia

Wildfires are an important factor of landscape dynamics in fire-prone environments of the world. In the Mediterranean, one of the most fire-susceptible environments globally, between 45,000 and 50,000 wildfires are recorded every year, causing disturbances in forest and grassland ecosystems. As a Mediterranean country, Croatia faces these problems, averaging over 1000 registered wildfires annually, with the coastal areas dominated by forest fires and continental Croatia by fires on agricultural lands. This research combines various landscape and socio-economic factors in the analysis of fire occurrence in Croatia’s southernmost region of Dalmatia. Around 275 of the largest fires (encompassing 98% of the total burnt area) registered in 2013 were investigated using OLS, and different spatial indices were employed to analyse regional variability in fire distribution. The results revealed that areas more prone to fires are the northern inland areas of Dalmatia and its entire coastal zone. Altitude and vegetation type demonstrated a correlation with fire occurrence, but an increase in population in the study area was also correlated with wildfire occurrence. Regarding vegetation, the grasslands and Mediterranean shrubland (maquis) were found to be the most fire-prone vegetation types in the study region, the distribution of which can be linked to different socio-economic and demographic processes occurring in the Eastern Adriatic.     

四川省林草火险等级评价

把四川建设成为长江上游生态屏障是四川省的一项重大战略决策。森林和草地资源防火是生态屏障和生态安全保障体系建设的重要内容。林草火险等级的评价对森林和草地资源的防火具有重要的意义。本文利用遥感、GIS和层次分析法对四川省林草火险等级进行了评价。研究表明,就全省而言,火险等级为5级的占0.8%,为4级的占20.2%,为3级的占47.2%;极高火险区主要出现在甘孜州、凉山州、阿坝州、攀枝花市和雅安市,其所占面积百分比分别为49.2%、24.7%、15.7%、3.5%和3.4%;高火险区主要出现在甘孜州、凉山州和阿坝州,其所占面积百分比共达到了72.1%。建议将甘孜州、凉山州、阿坝州、攀枝花以及雅安市作为四川省林草防火的重点区域,在防火的人、财、物上给予优先考虑。     

气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环

 随着全球变暖的日益显著,气候变化及其影响越来越受到广泛关注。火干扰作为森林生态系统碳循环的一个重要组成部分,其干扰过程是对碳的再分配过程,因而对区域乃至全球的碳循环产生重要影响。气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环三者之间存在因果循环关系,正确认识气候变化与火干扰的复杂关系及双向反馈作用,以及火干扰在生态系统碳循环中的作用,这对制定科学合理的火干扰管理策略,提高生态系统管理水平,减少碳排放,促进碳增汇,减缓全球变化速率均有重要意义。从两个方面阐述了气候变化、火干扰与生态系统碳循环之间的交互作用关系：气候变化与火干扰相互影响关系及双向反馈作用,分别从气候变化对火干扰的影响及火干扰对气候变化的影响两个方面阐述了两者之间的相互影响关系;火干扰与森林生态系统碳循环的交互作用,分别从火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及模型方法在模拟火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环影响中的应用两个方面论述火干扰对森林生态系统碳循环的影响及其定量评价模型方法。目前火干扰直接碳排放的模型方法比较完善,而间接影响碳循环的模型方法并不成熟,许多方法局限于定性描述,因此,应进一步探讨集成实地测量、遥感观测和模型模拟的跨尺度火干扰对碳循环的影响研究,注重尺度的转换问题。最后,提出了气候变暖背景下火干扰管理的路径选择,以及对今后的研究方向进行了展望。     

Fuel and fire behavior analysis for early-season prescribed fire planning in Sudanian and Sahelian savannas

Early dry-season prescribed fires can reduce fuel loads and thus prevent or mitigate the severity of late, high-intensity fires that spread widely in savanna ecosystems and damage woody plants. However, due to the lack of scientific knowledge regarding fuel characteristics and fire behavior in West African savannas, this practice can have effects that are diametrically opposed to those desired and may threaten the environment. There are three crucial parameters that must be considered when planning early-season prescribed fires: the ignition probability, the rate of spread of a fire and the amount of fuel consumed. In this study, 231 early-season prescribed fires were conducted in three savanna ecosystems in Senegal in order to characterize these three fundamental parameters.Logistic regression analyses revealed that fuel moisture content and relative humidity are good predictors of ignition probability. Multiple linear regressions were used to investigate the relationships between fire rate of spread, fuel consumption or fire intensity and fuel and weather conditions. Readily usable nomographs for forest managers were created based on those relationships that proved to be significant. Kruskal–Wallis tests performed to compare the observed rates of fire propagation with those predicted using BehavePlus showed no statistically significant difference between them.     

Comparing Conditions of Labor-Intensive Forestry and Fire Suppression Workers

Since the late 1970s, labor-intensive forest workers in the Pacific Northwest have been mostly Latino. These workers and their Anglo counterparts plant and thin trees, perform other forestry services, and fight wildland fires. Poor job quality has been persistent, especially for Latino workers. We compare working conditions between fire suppression and nonsuppression forest work across Latino and non-Latino populations in Oregon. We find that although both groups share some similar conditions, Latino workers often faced poorer conditions, including disrespectful treatment, uncompensated injuries, risk of being blackballed if they complained, and little opportunity for advancement. However, there were some important job quality improvements for Latinos in fire suppression, including compensation for travel and training. Differences in contracting market structure and federal oversight between fire suppression and other forest work may contribute to improved job quality. This suggests the potential for improving conditions by focusing on improving contracting markets and oversight.