Crop growth modelling and crop yield forecasting using satellite-derived meteorological inputs

Distributed crop simulation models are typically confronted with considerable uncertainty in weather variables. In this paper the use of MeteoSat-derived meteorological products to replace weather variables interpolated from weather stations (temperature, reference evapotranspiration and radiation) is explored. Simulations for winter-wheat were carried for Spain, Poland and Belgium using both interpolated and MeteoSat-derived weather variables. The results were spatially aggregated to national and regional level and were evaluated by comparing the simulation results of both approaches and by assessing the relationships with crop yield statistics over the periods 1995–2003 from EUROSTAT. The results indicate that potential crop yield can be simulated well using MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables, but that water-stress hardly occurs in the water-limited simulations. This is caused by a difference in reference evapotranspiration which was 20–30% smaller in case of MeteoSat. As a result, the simulations using MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables performed considerably poorer in a regression analyses with crop yield statistics on national and regional level. Our results indicate that a recalibration of the model parameters is necessary before the MeteoSat-derived meteorological variables can be used operationally in the system.     

Impact of the spatial resolution of climatic data and soil physical properties on regional corn yield predictions using the STICS crop model

The assimilation of Earth observation (EO) data into crop models has proven to be an efficient way to improve yield prediction at a regional scale by estimating key unknown crop management practices. However, the efficiency of prediction depends on the uncertainty associated with the data provided to crop models, particularly climatic data and soil physical properties. In this study, the performance of the STICS (Simulateur mulTIdisciplinaire pour les Cultures Standard) crop model for predicting corn yield after assimilation of leaf area index derived from EO data was evaluated under different scenarios. The scenarios were designed to examine the impact of using fine-resolution soil physical properties, as well as the impact of using climatic data from either one or four weather stations across the region of interest. The results indicate that when only one weather station was used, the average annual yield by producer was predicted well (absolute error <5%), but the spatial variability lacked accuracy (root mean square error = 1.3 t ha⁻¹). The model root mean square error for yield prediction was highly correlated with the distance between the weather stations and the fields, for distances smaller than 10 km, and reached 0.5 t ha⁻¹ for a 5-km distance when fine-resolution soil properties were used. When four weather stations were used, no significant improvement in model performance was observed. This was because of a marginal decrease (30%) in the average distance between fields and weather stations (from 10 to 7 km). However, the yield predictions were improved by approximately 15% with fine-resolution soil properties regardless of the number of weather stations used. The impact of the uncertainty associated with the EO-derived soil textures and the impact of alterations in rainfall distribution were also evaluated. A variation of about 10% in any of the soil physical textures resulted in a change in dry yield of 0.4 t ha⁻¹. Changes in rainfall distribution between two abundant rainfalls during the growing season led to a significant change in yield (0.5 t ha⁻¹ on average). Our results highlight the importance of using fine-resolution gridded daily precipitation data to capture spatial variations of rainfall as well as using fine-resolution soil properties instead of coarse-resolution soil properties from the Canadian soil dataset, especially for regions with high pedodiversity.     

Modelling the current and future spatial distribution of NPP in a Mediterranean watershed

The aim of this study is to use full spatial resolution Envisat MERIS data to drive an ecosystem productivity model for pine forests along the Mediterranean coast of Turkey. The Carnegie, Ames, Stanford Approach (CASA) terrestrial biogeochemical model, designed to simulate the terrestrial carbon cycle using satellite sensor and meteorological data, was used to estimate annual regional fluxes in terrestrial net primary productivity (NPP). At its core this model is based on light-use efficiency, influenced by temperature, rainfall and solar radiation. Present climate data was generated from 50 climate stations within the watershed using co-kriging. Regional scale pseudo-warming data for year 2070 were derived using a Regional Climate Model (RCM) these data were used to downscale the GCM General Circulation Model for the research area as part of an international research project called Impact of Climate Changes on Agricultural Production Systems in Arid Areas (ICCAP). Outputs of climate data can be moderated using the four variables of percent tree cover, land cover, soil texture and NDVI. This study employed 47 MERIS images recorded between March 2003 and September 2005 to derive percent tree cover, land cover and NDVI. Envisat MERIS data hold great potential for estimating NPP with the CASA model because of the appropriateness of both its spatial and its spectral resolution.     

Coupling the 4M crop model with national geo-databases for assessing the effects of climate change on agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary

The 4M crop model was used to investigate the prospective effects of climate change on the agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary. The model was coupled with a detailed meteorological database and spatial soil information systems covering the whole territory of Hungary. Plant-specific model parameters were determined by inverse modeling. Future meteorological data were produced from the present meteorological data by combining a climate change scenario and a stochastic weather generator. Using the available and the generated data, the present and the prospective agro-ecological characteristics of Hungary were determined. According to the simulation results, average yields will decrease considerably (~30%) due to climate change. The rate of nitrate leaching will prospectively decrease as well. The fluctuations of both the yields and the annual nitrate leaching rates will most likely increase approaching the end of the twenty-first century. On the basis of the simulation results, the role of autumn crops is likely to become more significant in Hungary. The achieved results can be generalized for more extended regions based on the concept of spatial (geographical) analogy.     

Differences between cropland and rangeland MODIS phenology (start-of-season) in Mali

Start-of-season data are more and more used to qualify the land surface phenology trends in relation with climate variability and, more rarely, with human land management. In this paper, we compared the phenology of rangeland vs cropped land in the Sahel belt of Africa, using the only currently available global phenology product (MODIS MCD12Q2 – Land Cover Dynamics Yearly), and an enhanced crop mask of Mali. The differences in terms of start-of-season (SOS) are spatially (north south gradient), and temporally (10 years, 2001–2009) analyzed in bioclimatic terms. Our results show that globally the MODIS MCD12Q2 SOS dates of croplands and rangelands differ, and that these differences depend on the bioclimatic zone. In Sahelian and Guinean regions, cropland vegetation begins to grow earlier than rangeland vegetation (8-day and 4-day advance, respectively). Between, in the Sudanian and Sudano-Sahelian parts of Mali, rangeland vegetation greens about one week earlier than croplands. These results are discussed in the context of the land surface heterogeneity at MODIS scale, and in the context of the natural vegetation ecology. These results could help interpreting phenological trends in climate change analysis.     

A method of downscaling temperature maps based on analytical hillshading for use in species distribution modelling

Climate maps have been widely used for the construction of species distribution models. These maps derive from interpolation of data collected by meteorological stations. The sparse distribution of stations generates maps with coarse spatial resolution that are unable to detect microclimates or areas that can serve as plant or animal refuges. This work proposes a method for downscaling temperature maps using the solar radiation falling upon hillsides as predictor for the influence of relief on local variability. Solar irradiance is estimated from a digital elevation model of the study area using a routine based on analytical hillshading. Some examples of downscaling from 1 km to 25 m spatial resolution are shown. The results are compared with the surface temperature maps from Landsat 8 satellite imagery.     

Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using AWiFS/WiFS data of Indian Remote Sensing satellites

Spatial differences in drought proneness and intensity of drought caused by differences in cropping patterns and crop growing environments within a district indicate the need for agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level. The objective of this study is to use moderate resolution satellite images for detailed assessment of the agricultural drought situation at different administrative units (blocks) within a district. Monthly time composite NDVI images derived from moderate resolution AWiFS (60 m) and WiFS (180 m) images from Indian Remote Sensing satellites were analysed along with ground data on rainfall and crop sown areas for the kharif seasons (June – November) of 2002 (drought year), 2004 (early season drought) and 2005 (good monsoon year). The impact of the 2002 meteorological drought on crop area in different blocks of the district was assessed. The amplitude of crop condition variability in a severe drought year (2002) and a good year (2005) was used to map the degree of vulnerability of different blocks in the district to agricultural drought. The impact of early season deficit rainfall in 2004 on the agricultural situation and subsequent recovery of the agricultural situation was clearly shown. Agricultural drought assessment at disaggregated level using moderate resolution images is useful for prioritizing the problem areas within a district to undertake, in season drought management plans, such as alternate cropping strategies, as well as for end of the season drought relief management actions. The availability of ground data on rainfall, cropping pattern, crop calendar, irrigation, soil type etc., is very crucial in order to interpret the seasonal NDVI patterns at disaggregated level for drought assessment. The SWIR band of AWiFS sensor is a potential data source for assessing surface drought at the beginning of the season.     

Development and validation of spectrometeorological yield models of mustard oil seed crop in Rajasthan state

Attempt has been made to develop spectro meteorological yield models using normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) derived from NOAA AVHRR data over the crop growth period and monthly rainfall data for predicting yield of mustard crop. The AVHRR data spanning seven crop growing seasons, the rain gauze station-level rainfall data and crop yield data determined from crop cutting experiments (CCE) conducted by state Directorate of Economics and Statistics (DES) are the basic input data. A methodology has been developed to normalize the multi-temporal NDVIs for the minimisation of atmospheric effects, which is found to reduce the noise in NDVI due to varying atmospheric conditions from season to season and improve the predictability of statistical multiple linear regression yield models developed for nine geographically large districts of Rajasthan state. The spectro meteorological yield models had been validated by comparing the predicted district level yields with those estimated from the crop cutting experiments.     

遥感反演和站点观测的地气温度分布特征差异

地表温度和近地表大气温度是地球系统、大气系统以及地—气相互作用物理过程的重要参量。在陆地—大气的相互作用过程中,水汽含量、NDVI指数、下垫面变化等因素会对地—气热量传输造成一定的影响。本文首先利用地表温度产品（MYD11A1）以及气温站点数据（GSOD）获得全国尺度下地表温度年最大值、近地面气温年最大值。在此基础上,使用趋势分析法分析2003年—2018年地、气温度年最大值时空分布特征及变化趋势,以及地—气温差气候倾向率变化趋势。最后,结合大气总水汽含量产品（MYD05）、NDVI指数（MYD13A3）、二氧化碳平均浓度增长率分析导致地表温度年最大值与近地面气温年最大值趋势发生变化的原因。研究结果表明：（1）在全国尺度下,2003年—2018年地表温度年最大值呈现北高南低的空间分布特征。近地面气温年最大值的空间分布与地表温度年最大值相反。大气总水汽含量年最大值在热带、亚热带季风气候区内总体较高。水汽含量既影响近地面气温的大小,同时也受到近地面气温的影响,因此,水汽含量年最大值与近地面气温年最大值表现出一定的空间分布一致性特征。（2）在2003年—2018年期间,地表温度年最大值的气候倾向率在空间上表现出北高南低的分布特征。近地面气温年最大值的气候倾向率在空间上也表现为北高南低,与地表温度年最大值的气候倾向率变化基本一致。但地表温度年最大值的变化幅度要大于近地面气温年最大值,并且在个别区域表现不一致。主要分布在天山地区、三江平原以及秦岭南侧地区,地—气年最大值变化趋势相反即地—气差减小。（3）大气总水汽含量年最大值的增加可造成近地面气温年最大值的增加,而植被覆盖度的上升可造成地表温度年最大值下降。但在天山地区大气总水汽含量与地—气差的响应不明显,但天山地区的近地面气温年最大值与CO₂平均浓度增长率的关系较为明显。（4）遥感数据反演的地表温度年最大值和站点观测的近地面气温年最大值空间分布表现出差异,但时间变化趋势基本一致。     

卫星遥感中国海域气溶胶特征分析

利用AERONET地基观测,验证MODIS Collection5(MODIS_C005)气溶胶产品在中国海域的适用性。利用其550nm气溶胶光学厚度(AOT550)和小颗粒比例(Fine Mode Fraction,FMF)对中国海域气溶胶分布进行分析,结合气象场对其形成机制进行探讨,结果表明:首先,MODIS_C005气溶胶产品在中国海域有很高精度,适用中国海域;其次,中国海域AOT550与FMF存在明显的时空分布特征。时间上,AOT550在冬、春季最大,在夏、秋季最小;FMF在夏、秋季最大,冬、春季最小。空间上,在经向上,AOT550在30°N—40°N达到最大,向南北递减;FMF从南向北逐渐增加,到达30?N附近后增加减弱。在纬向上,AOT550和FMF随着经度的增加而减小;最后,中国海域气溶胶主要来自于陆源气溶胶,借助风场传输到达中国海域,同时还受到降雨的影响。     

气象卫星遥感资料在我国1994年汛期气候灾害监测中的应用

简述我国1994年汛期气象卫星遥感资料在暴雨、台风、洪水监测以及天气分析和预报中的应用。     

农作物单产预测的运行化方法

提出了适于运行化农作物单产预测的方法。即以农作物单产区划为基础 ,通过搜集不同地区不同作物的单产预测模型 ,分析每个模型的空间适用范围 ,并从模型参数等角度筛选模型 ,然后利用这些模型进行气象站点的作物单产预测 ,并以NDVI分布图为参考数据将点上的单产数据空间外推到区域尺度。借助耕地分布估计区域水平的农作物单产。最后以 2 0 0 3年冬小麦为例 ,进行了全国 10个省的冬小麦平均单产估算 ,花费了较少的人力和时间 ,符合运行化遥感估产要求     

Stochastic Radiative Transfer on Modeled Cloud Fields

Several efforts are currently underway to improve cloud-radiation parameterizations in Global Climate Models (GCMs) by incorporating statistical properties of the cloud field. Although some radiation parameterizations, which are already computationally costly, now incorporate subgrid scale variability in cloud properties, they are not yet capable of using this information in their calculations of the 3-D radiation fields. Before drastic changes are made to such algorithms to incorporate cloud-cloud radiation interactions, the impact of including realistic high-resolution cloud distributions on the shortwave fluxes should be assessed. This letter provides a framework for carrying out such assessments, including a new methodology that blends a stochastic radiative transfer model, high-resolution cloud fields from a mesoscale meteorological model, and a threshold and object identification technique applied to cloud water content fields. This process provides a link between the radiative fluxes calculated in GCMs, where clouds occur at a subgrid scale, and the highly resolved cloud fields in a regional climate model, which can provide cloud field statistics. Two case studies are described herein.     

A simple assessment approach for winter wheat loss risk impacted by water stress

In this study, an empirical assessment approach for the risk of crop loss due to water stress was developed and used to evaluate the risk of winter wheat loss in China, the United States, Germany, France and the United Kingdom. We combined statistical and remote sensing data on crop yields with climate data and cropland distribution to model the effect of water stress from 1982 to 2011. The average value of winter wheat loss due to water stress for the three European countries was about ?931 kg/ha, which was higher than that in China (?570 kg/ha) and the United States (?367 kg/ha). Our study has important implications for the operational assessment of crop loss risk at a country or regional scale. Future studies should focus on using higher spatial resolution remote sensing data, combining actual evapotranspiration to estimate water stress, improving the method for downscaling of statistical crop yield data and establishing more sophisticated zoning methods.     

基于GPS-PWV的不同云系降水个例的综合分析

利用成都地基GPS观测网的观测数据,结合自动气象站资料计算出GPS遥感的大气可降水量(GPS-PWV)。按照降水性质,选取对流云降水和层状云降水个例,分析不同类型降水过程中GPS-PWV的变化特征。结果表明,对流云降水和层状云降水一般均发生在GPS-PWV的高值阶段。     

Assessment of Kalpana-1 Rainfall Product over Indian Meteorological Sub-Divisions During the Summer Monsoon Season

In this paper, Kalpana-1 derived INSAT Multispectral Rainfall Algorithm (IMSRA) rainfall estimates are compared with two multisatellite rainfall products namely, TRMM Multisatellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA)-3B42 and Global Satellite Mapping of Precipitation (GSMaP), and India Meteorological Department (IMD) surface rain gauge (SRG)-based rainfall at meteorological sub-divisional scale over India. The performance of the summer monsoon rainfall of 2013 over Indian meteorological sub-divisions is assessed at different temporal scales. Comparison of daily accumulated rainfall over India from IMSRA shows a linear correlation of 0.72 with TMPA-3B42 and 0.70 with GSMaP estimates. IMSRA is capable to pick up daily rainfall variability over the monsoon trough region as compared to TMPA-3B42 and GSMaP products, but underestimates moderate to heavy rainfall events. Satellite-derived rainfall maps at meteorological sub-divisional scales are in reasonably good agreement with IMD-SRG based rainfall maps with some exceptions. However, IMSRA performs better than GSMaP product at meteorological sub-divisional scale and comparable with TMPA data. All the satellite-derived rainfall products underestimate orographic rainfall along the west coast, the Himalayan foothills and over the northeast India and overestimate rainfall over the southeast peninsular India. Overall results suggest that IMSRA estimates have potential for monsoon rainfall monitoring over the Indian meteorological sub-divisions and can be used for various hydro-meteorological applications.     

District wise yield models of rice in Bihar based on water requirement and meteorological data

Pre-harvest crop production forecast has been successfully provided by remote sensing technique. However, the probability to get cloud-free optical remote sensing data during kharif season is poor. Microwave data having the capability to penetrate cloud is used in the absence of cloud free optical remote sensing data. Yield models in broad band frequency range are in development stage. Meteorological yield models are developed and predicted yield is combined with area estimated by remote sensing data to provide rice production forecast. This paper describes the methodology adopted for improving the predictability of rice yield before harvest of the crop in Bihar province by taking into consideration meteorological parameters during its growth cycle upto October. Models developed using fortnightly meteorological data have been found to give reasonably fair indications of expected yield of rice in advance of harvest. The yield predictions have been made based on meteorological data and effective rainfall based on water requirement calculations representing a group of districts under similar agro-climatic zones, which could be further improved by incorporating meteorological data of individual districts within each group.     

地表温度日变化模型偏差系数解算的地表温度降尺度

地表温度LST(Land Surface Temperature)是全球气候变化研究的关键参数,遥感是获取全球和区域尺度地表温度的一种切实可行手段,但现有的单一传感器无法提供高时空分辨率的LST数据,限制了遥感地表温度数据的深入广泛应用.现有的降尺度方法难以生成无缝高时空分辨率的地表温度数据,且降尺度效果易受高空间分辨...