城市发展对中国华北区域极端温度事件的影响(英文)

The regional changes of daily temperature extremes in North China caused by urbanization are studied further from observed facts and model estimates on the basis of homogenized daily series of maximum and minimum temperature observations from 268 meteorological stations, NCEP/DOE AMIP-Ⅱ reanalysis data(R-2), and the data of simulations by regional climate model(RegCM3). The observed facts of regional warming on long time scales are obtained by analyzing the indices of temperature extremes during two time periods of 1961–2010 and 1951–2010. For urbanization effect, the contributions to decreases in annual and winter diurnal temperature range(DTR) are 56.0% and 52.9%, respectively, and increases in the lowest minimum temperature(TNn) are 35.7% and 26.2% by comparison of urban and rural observations. Obtained by R-2 data with observations for contrast, on the other hand, increase in the number of annual warm nights(TN90p) contributed by urbanization is 60.9%. And observed facts of regional warming in daily temperature extremes are also reflected in the simulations, but what difference is urbanization progress at rural areas in North China would be prominent in the next few years relative to urban areas to some extent from model estimates.     

背景气候和城市化对中国东南部增温的联合效应(英文)

Based on China homogenized land surface air temperature and the National Centers for Environmental Prediction/Department of Energy (NCEP/DOE) Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project (AMIP)-Ⅱ Reanalysis data (R-2), the main contributors to surface air temperature increase in Southeast China were investigated by comparing trends of urban and rural temperature series, as well as observed and R-2 data, covering two periods of 1954-2005 and 1979-2005. Results from urban-rural comparison indicate that urban heat island (UHI) effects on regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases account for 10.5% and 12.0% since 1954, but with smaller warming attribution of 6.2% and 10.6% since 1979. The results by comparing observations with R-2 surface temperature data suggest that land use change accounts for 32.9% and 28.8% in regional annual and autumn minimum temperature increases since 1979. Accordingly, the influence of land use change on regional temperature increase in Southeast China is much more noticeable during the last 30 years. However, it indicates that UHI effect, overwhelmed by the warming change of background climate, does not play a significant role in regional warming over Southeast China during the last 50 years.     

中国城市扩展对气温观测的影响及其高估程度(英文)

Since the implementation of the reform and opening up policy in China in the late 1970s, some meteorological stations ’entered’ cities passively due to urban expansion. Changes in the surface and built environment around the stations have influenced observations of air temperature. When the observational data from urban stations are applied in the interpolation of national or regional scale air temperature dataset, they could lead to overestimation of regional air temperature and inaccurate assessment of warming. In this study, the underlying surface surrounding 756 meteorological stations across China was identified based on remote sensing images over a number of time intervals to distinguish the rural stations that ’entered’ into cities. Then, after removing the observational data from these stations which have been influenced by urban expansion, a dataset of background air temperatures was generated by interpolating the observational data from the remaining rural stations. The mean urban heat island effect intensity since 1970 was estimated by comparing the original observational records from urban stations with the background air temperature interpolated. The result shows that urban heat island effect does occur due to urban expansion, with a higher intensity in winter than in other seasons. Then the overestimation of regional air temperature is evaluated by comparing the two kinds of grid datasets of air temperature which are respectively interpolated by all stations’ and rural stations’ observational data. Spatially, the overestimation is relatively higher in eastern China than in the central part of China; however, both areas exhibit a much higher effect than is observed in western China. We concluded that in the last 40 years the mean temperature in China increased by about 1.58℃, of which about 0.01℃ was attributed to urban expansion, with a contribution of up to 0.09℃ in the core areas from the overestimation of air temperature.     

长江三角洲城市带扩展对区域温度变化的影响

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli- matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

Impact of urban expansion on regional tempera-ture change in the Yangtze River Delta

Based on non-radiance-calibrated DMSP/OLS nighttime light imagery from 1992 to 2003, urban land area statistical data, meteorological data and land surface temperature data retrieved by MODIS and NOAA/AVHRR data, the influence of urbanization on regional cli-matic trend of temperature in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD) was analyzed. Conclusions are as follows: 1) There is a significant urbanization process from 1992 to 2003 in the YRD. Four city clusters of Nanjing–Zhenjiang–Yangzhou, Suzhou–Wuxi–Changzhou, Shanghai and Hangzhou Bay form a zigzag city belt. The increase rate of annual mean air temperature in city-belt is 0.28–0.44℃/10a from 1991 to 2005, which is far larger than that of non-city-belt. 2) The urban heat island (UHI) effect on regional mean air temperature in different seasons is summer>autumn>spring>winter. 3) The UHI intensity and the urban total population logarithm are creditably correlated. 4) The UHI effect made the regional annual mean air temperature increased 0.072℃ from 1961 to 2005, of which 0.047℃ from 1991 to 2005, and the annual maximum air temperature increased 0.162℃, of which 0.083℃ from 1991 to 2005. All these indicating that the urban expansion in the YRD from 1991 to 2005 may be regarded as a serious climate signal.     

Spatial correlations between urbanization and river water pollution in the heavily polluted area of Taihu Lake Basin, China

Water pollution in the Taihu Lake Basin has been the focus of attention in China and abroad for a long time, due to its position in the forefront of urban development in China. Based on data gathering and processing from 84 monitoring sections in this heavily polluted area, this study first analyzes spatial patterns of urbanization and the distribution of river water pollution, and then uses the GeoDa bivariate spatial autocorrelation model to investigate the spatial correlation between urbanization and river water pollution at the scale of township units. The results show that urbanization has adverse impacts on water pollution, and the influence varies in different levels of development areas. The urban township units have the highest level of urbanization and highest pollution, but the best water quality; the suburban units have lower level of urbanization, but higher pollution and worse water quality; however the rural units have the lowest level of urbanization and lowest pollution, mainly affected by upstream pollution, but worst water quality. Lastly, urban and rural planning committees, while actively promoting the process of development in the region, should gradually resolve the issue of pollution control lagging behind urban life and urban develop- ment, giving priority to construction of centralized sewage treatment facilities and associated pipeline network coverage in the rural areas and suburban areas.     

基于粗糙集理论的地学空间关系规则分析及其应用——以珠江三角洲为例

Spatial relations,reflecting the complex association between geographical phenomena and environments,are very important in the solution of geographical issues. Different spatial relations can be expressed by indicators which are useful for the analysis of geographical issues. Urbanization,an important geographical issue,is considered in this paper. The spatial relationship indicators concerning urbanization are expressed with a decision table. Thereafter,the spatial relationship indicator rules are extracted based on the application of rough set theory. The extraction process of spatial relationship indicator rules is illustrated with data from the urban and rural areas of Shenzhen and Hong Kong,located in the Pearl River Delta. Land use vector data of 1995 and 2000 are used. The extracted spatial relationship indicator rules of 1995 are used to identify the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan,Zhuhai and Macao. The identification accuracy is approximately 96.3%. Similar procedures are used to extract the spatial relationship indicator rules of 2000 for the urban and rural areas in Zhongshan,Zhuhai and Macao. An identification accuracy of about 83.6% is obtained.     

中国天气发生器的降水模拟

A stochastic model for daily precipitation simulation in China was developed based on the framework of a ‘Richardson-type‘ weather generator that is an important tool in studying impacts of weather/climate on a variety of systems including ecosystem and risk assessment. The purpose of this work is to develop a weather generator for applications in China. The focus is on precipitation simulation since determination of other weather variables such as temperature is dependent on precipitation simulation. A framework of first order Markov Chain with Gamma Distribution for daily precipitation is adopted in this work. Based on this framework, four parameters of precipitation simulation for each month at 672 stations all over China were determined using daily precipitation data from 1961 to 2000. Compared with previous works, our estimation for the parameters was made for more stations and longer observations, which makes the weather generator more applicable and reliable. Spatial distributions of the four parameters are analyzed in a regional climate context. The seasonal variations of these parameters at five stations representing regional differences are discussed.Based on the estimated monthly parameters at 672 stations, daily precipitations for any period can be simulated. A 30-year simulation was made and compared with observations during 1971-2000 in terms of annual and monthly statistics. The results are satisfactory, which demonstrates the usefulness of the weather generator.     

区域尺度城市增长时空动态模型及其在京津唐都市圈应用

Dynamic urban expansion simulation at regional scale is one of the important re-search methodologies in Land Use/Cover Change (LUCC) and global environmental change influenced by urbanization.However,previous studies indicate that the single urban expan-sion simulation for future scenarios at local scale cannot meet the requirements for charac-terizing and interpreting the interactive mechanisms of regional urbanization and global en-vironmental change.This study constructed a regional Dynamic Urban Expansion Model (Reg-DUEM) suitable for different scenarios by integrating the Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Cellular Automaton (CA) model.Firstly we analyzed the temporal and spatial character-istics of urban expansion and acquired a prior knowledge rules using land use/cover change datasets of Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan metropolitan area.The future urban expansion under different scenarios is then simulated based on a baseline model,economic models,policy models and the structural adjustment model.The results indicate that Reg-DUEM has good reliability for a non-linear expansion simulation at regional scale influenced by macro-policies.The simulating results show that future urban expansion patterns from different scenarios of the metropolitan area have the tremendous spatio-temporal differences.Future urban ex-pansion will shift quickly from Beijing metropolis to the periphery of Tianjin and Tangshan city along coastal belt.     

Impact of land use change on soil resources in the peri-urban area of Suzhou city

The Yangtze delta area is among the fastest developing areas in China. Here there are mega-cities like Shanghai, Nanjing and the attached urban areas of different sizes including those along the lower reaches of the Yangtze River from Shanghai up to Nanjing as well as their satellite cities and towns, forming one of the most densely distributed urban areas in China. This is a case study done in Suzhou city at the center of the Yangtze delta to reflect the impact of urban sprawl on soil resources using satellite images and digital soil databases. The extent of the developed land in the studied area and the impact of development on soil resources at 1:100,000 scale are estimated and the soil types impacted most by urbanization development are determined through overlaying the soil map on the satellite images (Landsat-7) of the studied area at different times (1984, 1995, 2000 and 2003). The methodology for this study consists of analyzing data resulting from using a geographic information system (GIS) to combine urban land use maps of different times derived from satellite images with data on soil characteristics contained in the established soil databases by which some results come into being to present the fast expanding trend of urbanization in the Yangtze delta area, the urban spread and the soils occupied by the urbanization process, and also the quality of the occupied soils.     

长江三角洲气温变化特征及城市化影响

基于长江三角洲国家基本/基准站历史气象资料和区域人口资料,分析了1959~2005年和1981~2005年期间长江三角洲气温的年和季节变化特征,气温变化在大城市、中等城市和小城镇站之间的差异,以及城市化效应对气温的增温率和增温贡献率。结果表明,过去47年和25年期间,长江三角洲年均气温、年均最高和最低气温都显著增加,增温率都是冬季和春季较高,夏季最低。大城市站增温率明显高于小城镇和中等城市站,城市化效应对大城市气温基本上都是增温作用,其中对平均最低气温的增温率及贡献率最大,对平均最高气温都最小。长江三角洲气温变化趋势和增温率、城市化效应的增温率及增温贡献率与其他地区具有较好的一致性。     

基于EOF分解的辽宁省城市化气候效应检测

论文利用1961—2017年逐日气象数据以及社会经济数据,构建新的城市化指标,分析了城市化对辽宁气候变化的影响。研究表明:辽宁省气温呈显著增加趋势,国家站增温速率明显快于乡村站;城市化对平均最低气温影响最显著,平均气温次之,平均最高气温相对较弱;就四季而言,秋季城市化影响贡献率最大,冬季和夏季次之,春季相对较小。空间分布上,城市化影响高值区位于辽宁中部和西部地区,与辽宁省城市化发展水平基本吻合,城市化对气温的影响不是单一的,对于多数地区尤其是沈阳、大连等经济发展水平较高的地区,起到增温作用,但也对少数台站的升温起到了抑制作用。气温指标中,城市化对年和四季平均气温的影响最显著,对应模态均是第一模态,方差贡献率均在89%以上,空间相关性均通过显著性检验,其次是平均最低气温和日较差;季节变化特征上,冬季和春季的增温相对于秋季和夏季明显。降水指标基本对应第二模态,方差贡献率在9%~18%之间,城市化对气温的影响强于降水;结合时间系数,城市化效应表现为春季和冬季降水、大雨和暴雨日数略有增加,年、夏季、秋季降水、小雨、中雨日数减少。城市化对降水的影响表现出两面性,一方面使年降水和小量级降水减少,另一方面又使极端降水事件增多。     

珠三角城市化对气温时空差异性影响

利用1967-2015年珠江三角洲21个气象站逐日气温资料,根据人口数量、人口密度和夜间灯光数据等数据集划分城市和郊区站点类型,在此基础上,对比不同时空尺度城市站和郊区站气温变化,分析了城市化对气温影响的时空差异性。结果表明：① 1967-2015年,珠三角地区年平均气温、平均最高气温和最低气温均显著升高,平均最低气温的增温速率最高,分别是平均气温的1.05~1.16倍和平均最高气温的0.95~1.32倍。其中,年平均气温变化速率的季节差异普遍表现为秋冬季节增温最强,增温速率均高于0.3 ℃/10a,春夏季节增温较弱,增温速率最低为0.16 ℃/10a。② 利用城市和海表温度对比研究城市化效应,受城市化影响,珠三角年平均气温的增温趋势是0.096 ℃/10a。③ 利用城市和郊区对比研究城市化效应,1967-2015年城市化对城区的气温升高具有显著贡献,而且城市化对平均最高气温及最低气温增温的贡献率最大。其中,城市化对年平均气温变化的贡献率的季节差异表现为夏冬季节较强,贡献率高于11.8%,春秋季节较弱,贡献率最低仅为4.46%。④ 站点划分方法,城市化发展不同阶段及研究时间尺度的选择均导致城市化增温效应的研究结果具有较大不确定性。不同站点分类方法多指示城市化对最低气温升高的贡献率最强,最高可达到38.6%。     

城市化对北京市极端气候的影响研究

利用北京地区20个气象站点35年（1980—2014年）的逐日降水、气温资料和社会经济、人口、土地覆被以及夜间灯光遥感的栅格数据,通过聚类分析和层次分析相结合的方法将站点分类,对北京市城市化进程中的极端气候变化趋势和城市化影响的响应进行了分析。结果表明：北京市整体的极端冷事件呈减少趋势,极端暖事件呈增加趋势,极端降水事件没有明显变化趋势;城市化对极端温度事件有着显著的影响,相对于乡村站点来说,城市化使得极端冷事件减少的更快,极端暖事件增加的更快,造成城市的气温日较差明显变小;城市化对极端降水的影响虽不显著,但在乡村站点年降水量总量和降水日数减小的趋势下,城市化造成城市降水总量和降水日数均多于乡村,减缓了连续无降水日数的增长趋势,同时城市的极端降水有向更加极端的情景发展。     

1960~2015年中国天山南、北坡与山区极端气温时空变化特征

基于中国天山地区35个气象站点1960~2015年逐日最高、最低气温实测资料,应用Mann-Kendall趋势检验分析法, 空间分析法等研究了极端气温的时空变化特征,并探讨了气温指数的环流背景因素。结果表明：① 近56 a来,年平均最高、最低气温均呈上升趋势,而日较差呈下降趋势; 暖指数和日最低(高)气温极小值均呈上升趋势,而其他冷指数呈减小趋势;从季节变化看,除暖昼、暖夜之外,大部分气温指数的冬季变暖幅度均明显高于夏季。② 空间分布上,天山山区年平均最低气温和日较差以及大部分冷指数的变暖幅度大于南北坡,而暖指数则表现为南坡大于北坡和山区。③ 高温和低温指数变化幅度表现出明显不对称性变化,年平均最低温的变暖幅度明显大于年平均最高温,冷指数变暖幅度大于暖指数,夜指数变暖幅度显著大于昼指数。④ 天山地区年平均最高(低)气温和极端气温冷指数受环流指数北极涛动(AO)、北大西洋涛动(NAO)和厄尔尼诺-南方涛动(ENSO)的影响较大,而北太平洋涛动(NPO)、东亚夏季风(EASMI)、南亚夏季风(SASMI)和南海夏季风(SCSMI)是暖指数变化的重要因素。     

地温示踪地表暖化过程中的气候变化和城市热岛效应

对日本熊本平原城区和郊区28口观测井温度进行测量,利用一维非稳定水－热流运移方程解析解反演地表温度变化率,同时与研究区域7个气象站气温数据进行对比验证。结果表明：1987－2012年研究区域城区地表温度增加1.51°C,近地表气温增加1.13°C;郊区地表温度增加0.81°C,近地表气温增加0.59°C。研究区域气候变化和城市热岛效应对地表暖化过程的贡献率基本一致,通过对城区和郊区地温进行测量分析,能有效量化区分两者对地表暖化过程的影响。     

Temperature variation in Guangdong Province, China

1IntroductionThereisgrowingawarenessofclhatechange,andnumerousresearchonclhatictrendsandvallabilityatglobalorregionalscalehasbenconductedMoStstudieshaveconcen~onthelong-tenntrendsintemperatUI'eandPeripiboonpiousstudiesonhendSPherictempo~bendshavebeenconducted.AngellandKorshover(1977ac1978)StUdiedthetemperatUresinthenodsmhelinSPhereandstatedthattherewasadeClineoftemperatUreSinthe1960sandaslightw~gwasObservedafter197ill;l.OtherauthorssuchasLamb(1982)andJonesetal.(1982and1986a)SUPPOrted…     

近 58 a 中国北方地区极端气温时空变化及影响因素分析

基于北方地区 404 个气象站 1960—2017 年逐日最高气温、最低气温资料,应用线性倾向估 计法、Mann-Kendall 法、滑动 t 检验法、累积距平法和相关分析法,分析了极端气温的时空变化特 征,并探讨了气温指数的影响因素。研究表明：极端气温暖指数和极值指数呈上升趋势,冷指数和 气温日较差呈下降趋势;变化幅度中冷指数大于暖指数,夜指数大于昼指数,西北地区极端气温指 数变化幅度最大,东北地区最小。突变时间上,极端气温指数突变主要发生在 20 世纪 80 年代和 90 年代,暖指数和极高值指数晚于冷指数和极低值指数,东北地区极端气温指数突变时间最早,西北 地区最晚,突变后极端暖事件和气温极值事件进入多发阶段,极端冷事件进入少发阶段。1988— 2012 年极端气温指数的变化响应了全球变暖停滞现象。多数极端气温指数与经纬度、海拔高度显 著相关。北极涛动（AO）指数对极端气温的影响最强,对冷指数影响最明显。气溶胶光学厚度与多 数冷指数呈负相关,而与多数暖指数呈正相关。     

北京地区城市热岛强度长期变化特征及气候学影响机制

选择北京地区为研究区,基于1967~2016年城市站（北京站）和城郊农村站（密云站）的长期气象观测数据,研究平均气温、最高气温、最低气温对应的城市热岛强度长期变化特征及其气候学影响机制。研究发现,过去50 a平均气温和最低气温对应的城市热岛强度显著增加,增温率分别为0.29℃/10a和0.45℃/10a,而最高气温对应的城市热岛强度则没有明显变化趋势;统计分析显示过去50 a北京地区相对湿度、风速和日照时数显著降低以及气温显著上升有利于城市热岛的形成,强化城市热岛强度;未来全球变暖和快速城市化背景下北京地区城市热岛效应将进一步加剧,形成更频繁和持续时间更长的夏季城市高温热浪,严重危及城市居民生产生活和生命健康。