EU ETS对欧洲电力行业的影响及对我国的建议

简要介绍欧盟排放交易体系（EU ETS）的发展情况,调研EU ETS对欧洲电力行业影响的研究现状,认为EU ETS将增加发电企业的生产成本,迅速提高电力市场价格,大幅增加发电企业利润,刺激能源技术投资和创新。同时简要评述EU ETS引发的争议问题,包括当前EU ETS对发电企业和电力市场的实际影响、发电企业巨额利润问题的产生原因等。在此基础上,对比中国和欧盟之间的差异,初步分析建设国内碳交易市场将对我国电力行业产生的影响,最后对我国建设碳交易市场提出建议。     

Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes, Asheville, NC, USA, 3–6 June 1997 Breakout Group C: Temperature Indices for Climate Extremes

The "temperature" breakout group at the 1997 Asheville Workshop on Indicators and Indices for Climate Extremes reviewed and developed the rationale for a choice of temperature indices for monitoring changes in climate extremes, and the supporting data required. A set of basic and supplementary key indices was drawn up. The key indices are meant to be easy to interpret, be relevant to the practical concerns of policy makers and others in the public sector and provide potential inputs into the Third Assessment Review of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change that is expected to report in 2001. The indices are expressed in various ways to facilitate spatial and temporal trend detection and impact analysis. There is flexibility in the number and the form of the indices identified and the choice for any particular application is subject to further analysis and prioritization. The success of this endeavor will depend on original work being done to further develop the indices and on the cooperation of organizations globally to provide the data necessary for the development and the implementation of the indices. This paper summarizes the group's recommendations.     

In it for the money,the environment,or the community? Motives for being involved in community energy initiatives

Community energy initiatives can foster a sustainable energy transition by promoting sustainable energy behaviour in the communities in which they are embedded. This raises the question of what motivates people to become involved in these initiatives. We investigated the importance of financial, environmental, and communal motives for initiative involvement. We propose that communal motives (i.e., being involved in one’s local community) may be related to initiative involvement, as community energy initiatives not only aim to promote sustainable energy behaviour but also enable people to be involved in their community. Across three studies, respondents rated financial and environmental motives as more important than communal motives for their involvement in community energy initiatives. Yet, environmental and communal motives were uniquely related to initiative involvement, while financial motives were not. The discrepancy between which motives people rate as important and which motives actually relate to their initiative involvement suggests that financial motives are an overrated motive, while communal motives are an underrated motive for involvement in community energy initiatives. Our results suggest that targeting communal motives may be an additional way to enhance involvement in community energy initiatives and foster sustainable behaviour among people, who may not otherwise be interested in environmental protection.     

EU ETS试验阶段微观交易大数据分析及其对中国的启示

通过对欧盟独立交易登记系统（CITL）的抓取、识别、清洗与融合构建了全样本的交易大数据集合,完整地重现了欧盟碳排放权交易体系（EU ETS）在试验阶段的市场微观结构。进而从市场内部微观视角出发,对EU ETS的市场微观体系、排放企业的微观交易行为,以及市场供需微观演化等予以分析,结果表明在市场建立初期：排放企业的交易大多是以配额履约为目的;交易行为呈现活跃度低、季节性和同向性的特点;市场上少量的高排放企业凭借其在配额总量、资金和信息上的优势在交易中占据了主导地位。此外,微观行为数据还反映了金融部门在碳配额交易中的作用：配额在前期流向金融部门使得供过于求的状况有所缓解,但当配额流出金融部门时,市场供需失调的情况被迅速放大。在碳市场建立初期,理解EU ETS市场参与者微观行为特点以及潜在的风险,对中国即将启动的全国统一碳排放权交易体系的机制设计有重要的启示意义。     

“双碳”目标下ETS与航空公司绿色全要素生产率

碳排放权交易机制（ETS）已经成为减少温室气体排放的重要市场手段和实现“双碳”目标的有效政策工具。以航空公司为研究对象,以2013—2022年为时间窗口,运用双重差分模型（DID）检验我国试点ETS政策对航空公司绿色全要素生产率（GTFP）的影响。研究发现,即使在免费配额为主导的宽松规制下,ETS依然在遏制航空碳排放、提升GTFP方面效果显著,尤其对低成本航空、民营航空、双重碳市场规制的公司。对航空公司减排而言,严格的基准制配额分配方式比宽松的祖父制有更好的倒逼效应。ETS主要通过促进环保投资和精细化管理提升航空公司GTFP。研究结论为科学评估碳交易试点的政策效应、提升民航全要素生产率、促进行业的绿色发展提供了学术参照和“定量解”。     

Changes in extreme daily rainfall for São Paulo, Brazil

Significant positive trends are found in the evolution of daily rainfall extremes in the city of São Paulo (Brazil) from 1933 to 2010. Climatic indices including ENSO, PDO, NAO and the sea surface temperature at the coast near São Paulo explain 85 % of the increasing frequency of extremes during the dry season. During the wet season the climatic indices and the local sea surface temperature explain a smaller fraction of the total variance when compared to the dry season indicating that other factors such as the growth of the urban heat island and the role of air pollution in cloud microphysics need to be taken into account to explain the observed trends over the almost eight decades.     

Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes, Asheville, NC, USA, 3–6 June 1997 Breakout Group A: Storms

The Working Group on Storms considered tropical cyclones, extratropical cyclones, thunderstorms and their associated winds and effects other than on temperatures and precipitation (which are dealt with by the other working groups) to be in their purview. Changes in observing systems and distribution of observers and people impacted by these phenomena confound trend analysis. In light of the difficulty of assembling homogeneous time series of small-scale phenomena such as thunderstorms, tornadoes and hail, and also the problems in wind measurements, the working group recommends that indices of wind be developed by taking advantage of long surface (or sea-level) pressure measurements and analyses. Because wind is a vector, two pairs of readings that are orthogonal are desirable. Instantaneous values over about 1000 km scales are desirable to generate statistics relevant to wind extremes. Recommendations are given on how the data might profitably be processed. Several other recommendations are made concerning data acquisition and processing, some of which apply to reanalysis of past data and some apply to future processing of data. Various "extremes indices" are also suggested.     

Some remarks on the stratospheric temperature for Fairbanks,Alaska, after the El Chichón Eruption

Abstract

The first substantial radiative effects of the El Chichón volcanic cloud were observed in Fairbanks in the winter of 1982/83. Winter is the time when stratospheric temperatures can vary widely owing to sudden stratospheric warmings, and interannual variations are large. Mean monthly temperatures of the stratosphere were analysed for the 50‐, 40‐, 30‐, 25‐, 20‐, 15‐, and 10‐mb levels, with the greatest density of the volcanic cloud expected to be around the 20‐mb level. For the four winter months, December 1982 to March 1983, an increase in temperature was observed. This increase was not only observed in Fairbanks, but also for two other stations (McGrath and Anchorage) close by, for which we also analysed the stratospheric temperatures.

Further, the interdiurnal variation of temperature (the radiosonde ascents are made at 0200 and 1400 local time) showed marked and significant increases for all three stations. This can be explained by the fact that during daytime the volcanic cloud is warmed by absorption of solar radiation, while at night no substantial temperature effect for this layer was detected.     

Animal thermal comfort index for the state of Paraíba,Brazil: trend,influencing factors,and mitigating measures

Theoretical and Applied Climatology - The present work had the objective to determine the tendency and the influence percentage of climatic variables on the Temperature and Humidity Index (THI) in...     

中国试点ETS的碳减排效果评估——基于分省高耗能工业子行业数据的分析

评估中国试点碳排放权交易体系(ETS)碳减排效果的现有研究普遍存在处理组样本选取范围明显大于试点ETS实际覆盖范围的问题。因此,文中对研究样本进行了更为严格的甄别:将2005—2017年各省的六大高耗能工业子行业中纳入试点企业的体量占相应子行业体量60%及以上的工业子行业作为处理组,将非试点地区的工业子行业作为对照组。基于双重差分法的分析表明,相较于对照组,试点ETS在启动后不仅促进了处理组工业子行业碳排放绝对量的下降,还促进了其碳排放强度的下降,说明试点ETS具有明显的碳减排效果。工业子行业的总产值和人均总产值分别与其碳排放量和碳排放强度呈现出一定的库兹涅茨曲线效应,工业子行业资产的流动性越强、盈利能力越强、面临的环境规制强度越大,越有利于碳减排。建议主管部门坚定依靠市场手段来控制温室气体排放,尽快将更多行业纳入全国ETS;另外,应提高体系运行相关数据的公开力度,定期对体系进行分析评估,并及时公布评估结果。     

Unstable climate−growth relations for white spruce in southwest Yukon, Canada

We used dendroclimatology to quantify inter-annual to multi-decadal climatic variation effects on white spruce radial growth in southwest Yukon, Canada. Local climate is dry and cold, such that tree growth was primarily moisture- rather than temperature-limited, although the mechanisms varied temporally. During the 20th century, significant increases in precipitation countered warming temperatures, so that heat?moisture indices have not changed significantly. Directional climatic change, superimposed on variation due to the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), resulted in unstable climate?growth relations. Prior to 1977, ring widths were positively correlated with previous growing season precipitation and warm temperatures had a negative impact, exacerbating moisture limitations in dry years especially during the cool, dry negative PDO phase (1946?1976). After 1977, correlations with previous growing season precipitation became negative and correlations with previous fall and winter precipitation and current year July and August temperatures became positive, although not statistically significant. These changes suggest precipitation and temperature increases over recent decades benefitted white spruce growth. Climate projections for this region include further temperature and precipitation increases, which may promote white spruce growth depending on the seasonality and interactions between temperature and precipitation. This study demonstrated the complexity of potential responses of white spruce to climate variation and change.     

Workshop on Indices and Indicators for Climate Extremes: Asheville, NC, USA, 3–6 June 1997 Breakout Group B: Precipitation

A uniform, international reference system of precipitation indices would greatly facilitate assessment of changes in global precipitation patterns, intensities and extremes. However, national/regional differences in precipitation monitoring standards, data quality control procedures, and product development practices complicate efforts to develop such a system. This report represents the results of Working Group B's concerted effort to examine in detail the problems associated with the development of the needed indicators and the Group's recommendations to address the identified issues. The Group concluded that a successful strategy must define a minimum set of indices/indicators based on higher quality data that would represent a global base set. The Group identified a set of indices for this purpose. This base data set should be complemented where possible by countries/regions having the data sets and processing resources to do more.     

Daily temperature and pressure series for Salem, Massachusetts (1786–1829)

The digitization and homogenization of a record with four daily thermometer and two daily barometer readings is described for the meteorological journal of Dr. E. A. Holyoke of Salem (Massachusetts). These records begin in January 1786 and span the period to March 1829 for temperature, and the period to December 1820 for pressure. The records are reconstructed and some inhomogeneities are identified and corrected for. The temperature data compares favourably with monthly temperature data from New Haven (Connecticut) and a comparison with independently reconstructed daily pressure data for nearby Cambridge (1780–1789) show that the temporal variations of the data agree very well. It is shown that the number of extremely cold days was considerably greater during 1786–1829 than recent times, while the number of warm days in the early and modern records are comparable. A probability distribution of daily winter pressure values shows a mean of the distribution which is 3 to 4 hPa lower during 1786–1820.     

Applying personal carbon trading: a proposed ‘Carbon,Health and Savings System’ for British Columbia,Canada

Addressing climate change requires the synergy of technological, behavioural and market mechanisms. This article proposes a policy framework that integrates the three, deploying personal carbon trading as a key element within a policy portfolio to reduce personal carbon footprints. It draws on policy and human motivation literatures that address the behavioural changes that may be needed in the context of a long-term threat such as climate change. This proposal builds on an analysis of the British Columbia carbon tax, international examples of carbon pricing instruments and strategies for behavioural change such as social networks, loyalty management, mobile apps and gamification. Interviews were conducted with experts in financial services, energy conservation and clean technology, as well as with specialists in climate, health and taxation policy. Their input, together with a review of the theoretical literature and practical case studies, informed the proposed design of a Carbon, Health and Saving System for promoting individual engagement and collective action by linking long-term climate mitigation measures with short-term personal and social goals, including health, recreation and social reinforcement.

Policy Relevance

This article identifies areas for climate policy innovation and recommends policies that can support, promote and enable personal carbon budgeting and collective action. Although this study is focused on British Columbia, both the input provided by key opinion leaders and the proposed framework are applicable to other jurisdictions.

This policy proposal shows how personal carbon trading could work in the context of a Canadian province with an existing climate mitigation policy. It also specifies a minimum viable product approach to establishing the economic, social and technological foundations for personal carbon trading.

The Carbon, Health and Saving System identifies the technologies and stakeholders needed to implement personal carbon trading, and offers the possibility of motivating a widespread conscious human response in the event that carbon taxation proves insufficient to generate economic adaptation in a changing climate.     

Climatology of winter transition days for the contiguous USA, 1951�C2007

In middle and high latitudes, climate change could impact the frequency and characteristics of frontal passages. Although transitions between air masses are significant features of the general circulation that influence human activities and other surface processes, they are much more difficult to objectively identify than single variables like temperature or even extreme events like fires, droughts, and floods. The recently developed Spatial Synoptic Classification (SSC) provides a fairly objective means of identifying frontal passages. In this research, we determine the specific meteorological patterns represented by the SSC??s Transition category, a ??catch-all?? group that attempts to identify those days that cannot be characterized as a single, homogeneous air mass type. The result is a detailed transition climatology for the continental USA. We identify four subtypes of the Transition category based on intra-day sea level pressure change and dew point temperature change. Across the contiguous USA, most transition days are identified as cold fronts and warm fronts during the winter season. Among the two less common subtypes, transition days in which the dew point temperature and pressure both rise are more frequently observed across the western states, and days in which both variables fall are more frequently observed in coastal regions. The relative frequencies of wintertime warm and cold fronts have changed over the period 1951?C2007. Relative cold front frequency has significantly increased in the Northeast and Midwest regions, and warm front frequencies have declined in the Midwest, Rocky Mountain, and Pacific Northwest regions. The overall shift toward cold fronts and away from warm fronts across the northern USA arises from a combination of an enhanced ridge over western North America and a northward shift of storm tracks throughout the mid-latitudes. These results are consistent with projections of climate change associated with elevated greenhouse gas concentrations.