Application of open tools and datasets to probabilistic modeling of road traffic disruptions due to earthquake damage

The disruption of a transportation network can have a high social and economic impact on the welfare of a society, as it can significantly affect the daily routines of a community. Although many studies have focused on the estimation of physical risk in the components that compose these networks, only a limited number have analyzed their interconnections and impact in the traffic flow. The present study analyzes how earthquake damage can disrupt the road network in an urban environment, and how this will influence the ability of the population to travel. Traffic due to daily commutes is modeled for different layouts of the network, corresponding to possible disruptions caused by earthquake damage. The duration and length of each trip were calculated both for the undamaged network conditions and for the disrupted network. The increase in the median duration and length of each trip allows estimating the economic loss for each event due to drivers' delay. By combining the probability of a specific road being blocked with its number of users, the average number of affected vehicles was estimated, and the most critical segments identified. The methodology was applied to a case study concerning the road network of the area around the Italian city of Messina in Sicily. The results were calculated for both a repetition of the well-known historical event of 1908 and a set of simulated earthquakes consistent with the national probabilistic seismic hazard model of Italy.     

The effect of road unevenness on the dynamic vehicle response and ground-borne vibrations due to road traffic

In this paper, the relation between road unevenness, the dynamic vehicle response, and ground-borne vibrations is studied. In situ measurements of road unevenness and the dynamic vehicle response for six roads with different types of pavement are supplemented by numerical predictions of ground vibrations. The predictions are performed in two stages. In the first stage, the dynamic vehicle response is computed based on the measured road unevenness. The vehicle model is validated by comparing the predicted and measured vehicle response and subsequently used to predict the dynamic vehicle loads. In the second stage, the dynamic road–soil interaction problem is considered and the transfer functions between the road and the soil are computed. The effect of the pavement type (continuous, jointed, or composed of individual pavers) on the road–soil transfer functions is investigated and the free field vibrations are calculated using the dynamic vehicle loads computed in the first stage. The predicted free field vibrations are validated by measurements at one of the measurement sites before and after rehabilitation of a deteriorated concrete pavement. Finally, the results are used to investigate the relation between indicators of road unevenness such as the ISO 8608 road class, the International Roughness Index, and the coefficient of evenness on one hand, and the dynamic vehicle response and level of ground-borne vibration on the other hand.     

Application of nonlinear forecasting techniques for meteorological modeling

A nonlinear forecasting method was used to predict the behavior of a cloud coverage time series several hours in advance. The method is based on the reconstruction of a chaotic strange attractor using four years of cloud absorption data obtained from half-hourly Meteosat infrared images from Northwestern Spain. An exhaustive nonlinear analysis of the time series was carried out to reconstruct the phase space of the underlying chaotic attractor. The forecast values are used by a non-hydrostatic meteorological model ARPS for daily weather prediction and their results compared with surface temperature measurements from a meteorological station and a vertical sounding. The effect of noise in the time series is analyzed in terms of the prediction results.     

Stochastic modeling of reactive transport in wetlands

This study describes the development of a general model for reaction in and performance of spatially heterogeneous bioreactors such as treatment wetlands. The modeled domain possesses local-scale velocities, reaction rates and transverse dispersion coefficients that are functions of an underlying heterogeneity variate representing one or more controlling biophysical attributes, for example, reactive surface area (submerged plant) density. Reaction rate coefficients are treated as related to local velocities in an inverse square fashion via their mutual dependence upon the variate. The study focuses on the solution for the steady-state case with constant inlet concentration. Results compare well with exact solutions developed for laterally-bounded systems in which the heterogeneity is represented explicitly. Employing the bicontinuum analogue of a second-order model, an expression for an effective longitudinal dispersion coefficient as a function of travel distance is developed using the method of moments. The result provides insights into the behavior of concentration as transverse mixing drives the system asymptotically toward Fickian longitudinal dispersion. The model may represent an improvement over other approaches for characterizing treatment wetland performance because it accounts for evolving shear flow dispersion, and because parameters are few in number, physically based, and invariant with mean velocity.     

Influence of local geological pattern on values of vibrations induced by road traffic

Buildings in the proximity of roads can be affected by vibrations induced by traffic. Local geological pattern is necessary to be taken into account because it has significant influence on values of vibrations and their characteristics. This paper summarizes results of experimental measurements. Four different types of buildings in different types of local geology were used for this purpose. The obtained results document that the generation of significant vibrations is mostly due to heavy vehicles. Some maximum velocity values exceed acceptable limits according to the Czech Technical Standard 73 0040 for evaluation of technical seismicity effect on buildings. Cosmetic damage, meaning the cracking of plaster, might occur due to traffic vibrations.     

Stochastic modeling of the permeability of randomly generated porous media

Permeability of porous media in subsurface environments is subject to potentially large uncertainties due to the heterogeneity of natural systems. In this study, a first-order reliability method (FORM) is combined with a lattice Boltzmann method (LBM) to estimate the permeability of randomly generated porous media. The proposed procedure provides an increased ease of addressing complex pore structures by employing LBM to model fluid flow, while inheriting the computational efficiency from FORM. Macroscale-equivalent permeability can thus be estimated with significantly reduced computational efforts, while maintaining a connection to the complex microscale fluid dynamics within a pore structure environment. Implemented on several randomly generated porous media domains, the proposed method provides 13–120 times the efficiency compared to Monte Carlo methods.     

Numerical investigation of road salt impact on an urban wellfield

The impact of road salt on a wellfield in a complex glacial moraine aquifer system is studied by numerical simulation. The moraine underlies an extensive urban and industrial landscape, which draws its water supply from >20 wellfields, several of which are approaching or have exceeded the drinking water limit for chloride. The study investigates the mechanisms of road salt infiltration, storage, and transport in the subsurface and assesses the effectiveness of mitigation measures designed to reduce the impact. The three-dimensional transport model accounts for increases in salt loading, as well as growth of the urbanized area and road network over the past 50 years. The simulations, which focus on one impacted wellfield, show chloride plumes originating mainly at arterial roads and migrating through aquitard windows into the water supply aquifers. The results suggest that the aquifer system contains a large and heterogeneously distributed mass of chloride and that concentrations in the aquifer can be substantially higher than the concentrations in the well water. Future impact scenarios indicate that although the system responds rapidly to reductions in salt loading, the residual chloride mass may take decades to flush out, even if road salting were discontinued. The implications with respect to urban wellfields in typical snow-belt areas are discussed.     

Vibration characteristics of a suspension bridge under traffic and no traffic conditions

This paper presents the variations of vibration under different traffic conditions on the Fatih Sultan Mehmet suspension bridge in Istanbul, Turkey.The main intention is to determine the vibration amplifications under heavy-traffic as opposed to no-traffic conditions. This is the first study in this particular area that has been performed on this bridge, over which an average of 200,000 cars pass daily. Two full-scale ambient vibration surveys were carried out on two different days to determine the response of the bridge to diverse traffic conditions. Initial measurements were taken as the bridge experienced heavy stress conditions caused by rush-hour traffic. Secondary measurements were recorded after closing the bridge to traffic. The data were analyzed to gauge the vibration effects of heavy-traffic conditions on the bridge and to determine the effects of different traffic conditions on the free vibration characteristics of the bridge. The analyses were performed utilizing different amplification methods. Results show that there are important differences in the amplifications of the vibration amplitudes. Especially heavy-traffic on the bridge causes the vibration response of the bridge to be intensified in comparison to no-traffic conditions. Additionally, predominant frequencies are shifted as a direct result of traffic load acting on the bridge. Even more importantly and is probably analogous for all long-span bridges, is the fact that any movement causing vibration on the bridge is carried and amplified along its length. These significant amplifications indicate the important effect of varying traffic loads and how the bridge responds to the diverse movements it experiences. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

交通荷载作用红层填料道路沉降细观模拟

为研究G6京藏高速兰州—海石湾段红层路基填料导致的沉降问题,建立二自由度路基路面耦合离散元模型。通过迭代运算,得到各层材料的细观参数,编写Fish函数,用冲击荷载及半正弦荷载模拟交通荷载作用,在此基础上分析荷载作用下路基路面各层颗粒的位移和应力时程曲线。研究表明：基层与红层填料交界面处出现位移分层现象,基层受水平拉应力作用,是裂缝发展的高风险区,在公路运营过程中应定期重点监测该区域裂缝的发生。PFC模型实现了路基土体及路面结构层在离散元软件中协同变形的耦合,为不良路基地区道路的病害问题及沉降变形计算提供研究思路,为该地区后续的路基病害整治奠定理论基础。     

Modelling of meteorological conditions at an urban scale for the PUMA winter campaign

For the winter 2000 campaign of the Pollution of Urban Midlands Atmosphere project, observation and numerical modelling of meteorological conditions over the West Midlands conurbation, UK, was undertaken. Modelling was performed using the regional atmospheric meteorological system (RAMS). This paper presents a comparison of modelled and observed wind and temperature for 25 and 26 January 2000. The RAMS model uses two nested grids with a mesh size of 2 km for the inner grid which is embedded in the outer grid with a mesh size of 8 km. Statistical evaluation of the model results against the observational data of wind speed, direction and temperature at 10 m was conducted. In general, the modelling results are in a reasonable agreement with observation. The statistical evaluation suggests that model performance is poorer for the inner grid than the outer grid as the model uncertainties (mainly mean bias) transfer from the outer to inner one. The low indices of agreement of temperature and wind are mainly associated with the systematic root-mean-square-difference values. For temperature, the systematic bias may also be affected by representation of cloud amount by the model. For wind, the model tends to have a poor performance for calm conditions, as under a stable anti-cyclonic situation local wind patterns associated with topography may develop, although the topography of the region is relatively flat. The results for the inner grid reveal some subtle spatial patterns at a scale smaller than 10 km near hills and valleys with differences in elevation of a few hundred metres.     

Stochastic excitation of a simple system with impact damper

An approximate analytical solution is obtained for the stationary response of a highly nonlinear auxiliary mass damper (impact damper) attached to a single-degree-of-freedom oscillator that is subjected to an excitation with white power spectral density and Gaussian probability distribution. Experimental measurements with an electronic analogue computer verify the analytical findings both qualitatively and quantitatively. Results are given for the mean-squared level and the power spectral density of the response. The effects of various damper parameters on the response of the primary system are determined. The impact damper under consideration is shown to be substantially more effective than the conventional dynamic vibration neutralizer in controlling the response of stochastically excited primary systems.     

The effect of truck traffic and road water content on sediment delivery from unpaved forest roads

A study investigated the effect of truck‐traffic intensity and road water‐content on the quality of runoff water from unsealed forest roads. Three sections of a gravel‐surfaced forest road were instrumented and exposed to low and high levels of truck traffic during wet winter conditions and dry summer conditions between July 2001 and December 2002. Rainfall, runoff, road moisture, and traffic were measured continuously, and suspended and bedload sediments were integrated measurements over 2‐week site‐service intervals. The median suspended sediment concentration from the three road segments under low truck‐traffic conditions (less than nine return truck passes prior to a storm) was 269 mg l^?1, increasing 2·7‐fold to a median of 725 mg l^?1 under high truck‐traffic conditions (greater than or equal to nine return truck passes prior to a storm). These concentrations, and increases due to traffic, are substantially less than most previously reported values. When these data are expressed as modified universal soil loss equation (MUSLE) erodibility values K, accounting for differences in rainfall energy, site characteristics and runoff, high traffic resulted in a road surface that was four times more erodible than the same road under low traffic conditions. Using multiple regression, traffic explained 36% of the variation in MUSLE erodibility, whereas road water content was not significant in the model. There was little difference in the erodibility of the road when trafficked in low water‐content compared with high water‐content conditions (MUSLE K values of 0·0084 versus 0·0080 respectively). This study shows that, for a good quality well‐maintained gravel forest road, the level of truck traffic affects the sediment concentration of water discharging from the road, whereas the water content of the road at the time of that traffic does not (note that traffic is not allowed during runoff events in Victoria). These conclusions are conditional upon the road being adequately maintained so that trafficking does not compromise the lateral drainage of the road profile. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Influences of ambient air pollutants and meteorological conditions on ozone variations in Kaohsiung,Taiwan

Stochastic Environmental Research and Risk Assessment - The complex process of ozone formation, its precursor compounds (volatile organic compounds (VOCs) and nitrogen oxides (NOx)) emissions,...     

Assessing traffic noise impact based on probabilistic and fuzzy approaches under uncertainty

Traffic noise can cause severe sound pollution for human communities. This paper proposes a hybrid approach to assess traffic noise impact under uncertainty. There are many factors influencing traffic noise level, but only three traffic parameters, namely, traffic flow, traffic speed and traffic component, are highly uncertain. These uncertain parameters are represented by probability distributions, and Monte Carlo simulations are performed to generate a noise distribution after considering about other certain influencing factors. Fuzzy set and binary fuzzy relations as well as probability analysis method are applied to identify the predicted traffic noise impacts in qualitatively and quantitatively. The applicability of this proposed technique is demonstrated using a case study.     

Spatial downscaling of TRMM precipitation data based on the orographical effect and meteorological conditions in a mountainous area

The lack of high resolution precipitation data has posed great challenges to the study and management of extreme rainfall events. Satellite-based rainfall products with large areal coverage provide a potential alternative source of data where in situ measurements are not available. However, the mismatch in scale between these products and model requirements has limited their application and demonstrates that satellite data must be downscaled before being used. This study developed a statistical spatial downscaling scheme based on the relationships between precipitation and related environmental factors such as local topography and pre-storm meteorological conditions. The method was applied to disaggregate the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) 3B42 products, which have a resolution of 0.25° × 0.25°, to 1 × 1 km gridded rainfall fields. The TRMM datasets in accord with six rainstorm events in the Xiao River basin were used to validate the effectiveness of this approach. The downscaled precipitation data were compared with ground observations and exhibited good agreement with r² values ranging from 0.612 to 0.838. In addition, the proposed approach provided better results than the conventional spline and kriging interpolation methods, indicating its promise in the management of extreme rainfall events. The uncertainties in the final results and the implications for further study were discussed, and the needs for additional rigorous investigations of the rainfall physical process prior to institutionalizing the use of satellite data were highlighted.     

An assessment of the impact of surface currents on wave modeling in the Southern Ocean

This paper presents an assessment of the impact of the ocean circulation on modeled wave fields in the Southern Ocean, where a systematic positive bias of the modeled wave height against altimetry data has been reported. The inclusion of ocean currents in the wave model considerably reduces the positive bias of the simulated wave height for high southern latitudes. The decrease of wave energy in the presence of currents is almost exclusively related to the reduction of the relative wind, caused by an overall co-flowing current field associated with the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Improvements of the model results are also found for the peak period and the mean period against a long-term moored buoy. At the mooring location, the effect of currents is greater for larger and longer waves, suggesting remotely generated swells are more influenced by the currents than local waves. However, an additional qualitative analysis using high-resolution currents in a finer grid nested to the global coarser grid shows that typical resolution of global hydrodynamic reanalysis is not sufficient to resolve mesoscale eddies, and as a consequence, the simulation of mesoscale wave patterns can be compromised. The results are also discussed in terms of the accuracy of forcing fields.     

Finite element modeling assumptions impact on seismic response demands of MRF-buildings

Recent seismic events have raised concerns over the safety and vulnerability of reinforced concrete moment resisting frame “RC-MRF” buildings. The seismic response of such buildings is greatly dependent on the computational tools used and the inherent assumptions in the modelling process. Thus, it is essential to investigate the sensitivity of the response demands to the corresponding modelling assumption. Many parameters and assumptions are justified to generate effective structural finite element (FE) models of buildings to simulate lateral behaviour and evaluate seismic design demands. As such, the present study focuses on the development of reliable FE models with various levels of refinement. The effects of the FE modelling assumptions on the seismic response demands on the design of buildings are investigated. the predictive ability of a FE model is tied to the accuracy of numerical analysis; a numerical analysis is performed for a series of symmetric buildings in active seismic zones. The results of the seismic response demands are presented in a comparative format to confirm drift and strength limits requirements. A proposed model is formulated based on a simplified modeling approach, where the most refined model is used to calibrate the simplified model.     

Climate change impact on Caspian Sea wave conditions in the Noshahr Port

Excessive usage of fossil fuels and high emission of greenhouse gases have increased the earth’s temperature and consequently have led to changes in wind and wave regimes. The main effects of climate change on oceans are warming of the ocean water, melting of ice, acidification of ocean water, and change in the ocean currents. The main effects of climate change on coastal regions are change in the coast hydrodynamics, sea level rise, change in wave height, coastal erosion, coastal structure damage, food shortage, and storms. Due to the importance of waves in the coastal zone and its effect on erosion and sedimentation, it is necessary to study wave changes. In this study, the effect of climate change on wave specifications was evaluated in the southern coast of the Caspian Sea in Noshahr Port. To simulate wave parameters, the third generation spectral Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) model was used. Wave modeling was carried out using the SWAN numerical model for two 30-yearly periods, including the control period (1984 to 2014) and the future period (2051 to 2080). For wave modeling in the control period, the European Center for Average Weather Forecast wind field was used, and for the future period, a downscaled wind field from Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment projection, which was sponsored by World Climate Research Programme, based on the most recent emission scenarios RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5, was used. The model results were calibrated and verified with buoy-recorded data. The effect of the climate change on the wave parameters was evaluated by studying the differences between the patterns in three scenarios and the control period. Results showed that the 30-year maximum significant wave height will increase because of climate change, and the wave direction will not change. In addition, the intensity of storms will increase in the future.