Diagnostics of a cause-effect relation between solar activity and the Earth’s global surface temperature

The influence of solar activity on the Earth’s global surface temperature (GST) was quantified. The method for estimation of the Granger causality was used, with analysis of the improvement of the prediction of one process by using data from another process as compared to autoprediction. Two versions of reconstructions of the solar flux variations associated with solar activity were used, according to Hoyt et al. [1997] for 1680–1992 (data H) and according to Lean et al. [2005] for 1610–2005 (data L). In general, the estimation results for the two reconstructions are reasonably well consistent. A significant influence of solar activity on GST with a positive sign was found for two periods, from the late 19th century to the late 1930s and from the latter half of the 1940s to the early 1990s, with no inertia or time delay. In these periods, up to 8 and 25% of the variance of the GST change, respectively, can be attributed to solar activity variations. The solar influence increased in the 1980s to the early 1990s according to data H and began to decrease in the latter half of the 1980s according to data L.     

Heliogeophysical and other natural processes,periods of their oscillations,and forecasts

Stable oscillations of heliogeophysical and other natural processes are generated within the solar system (SS) by interactions between the gravitational fields of the Sun, planets, and their satellites. The resonant periods of the SS are well described by a geometrical progression similar to a sound series with 32 notes in an octave. A comparison of the members of this geometrical progression to the orbital and rotational periods of the planets and the Moon and to the orbital periods of Jupiter’s satellites shows that the discovered regular pattern in the distribution of the motion periods of SS bodies holds with a 95% probability. Numerous natural periods of solar activity, interplanetary magnetic fields, the Earth’s magnetic field and rotational speed, movement of the Earth’s poles, seismic activity, and other terrestrial processes in the range of 10⁻⁴–10⁶ years are also consistent with the members of this geometrical progression. Heliogeophysical oscillations have a common external origin, and their periods often coincide with one another. The amplitudes of the oscillations of terrestrial processes depend on the oscillations in solar activity, lunar-solar tidal forces, and the Earth’s rotational speed, and on the interactions of geophysical processes. The existence of common external periods makes it possible to find significant correlations between terrestrial processes that appear to have no cause and effect relationships, e.g., between global air temperatures and magnitudes of regional earthquakes over a 600-year interval. These correlations testify to the influence of changes in the Earth’s rotational speed on tectonic and climatic processes and provide additional proof for the feasibility of the harmonic model of Northern Hemisphere temperatures. The parameters of stable oscillations that are components of global seismicity harmonic models and those of air temperatures and other natural processes are found from the respective simulated or observed time series. These models permit long-term forecasts of terrestrial and solar processes. The paper gives examples of successful forecasts of global seismicity in 2005–2010 and hazardous events of various origin in 1986, 1995, 2005, 2008, and 2010. Hazardous events are expected to intensify in 2011/2012, 2016/2017, 2024, and 2028/2029. The next economic crisis is expected in 2029 ± 1.     

Analysis of time series of global mean values of thermodynamic and circulation parameters of the atmosphere and concentrations of ozone and water vapor

Models for global mean values of temperature; air, ozone, and water-vapor concentrations; and zonal and meridional winds at heights of 0–45 km are developed and constructed from data of the European ERA-40 and Era Interim databases over the period 1958–2007. An analysis of the time series consists of the decomposition of parameter values into harmonic, trend, and pulsation components. A comparative analysis of these models is performed, and a relationship between the global mean ozone concentration and solar activity is detected. A hypothesis about the physical mechanism for the relationship between the total ozone concentration (TOC) and solar activity is proposed.     

Contrasting changes between the northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence ecosystems associated with the collapse of groundfish stocks

In order to have a global view of ecosystem changes associated with the collapse of groundfish species in the Gulf of St. Lawrence during the early 1990s, Ecopath mass-balance models were constructed incorporating uncertainty in the input data. These models covered two ecosystems (northern and southern Gulf of St. Lawrence; NAFO divisions 4RS and 4T), and two time periods (before the collapse, in the mid-1980s, and after it, in the mid-1990s). Our analyses revealed that the ecosystem structure shifted dramatically from one previously dominated by piscivorous groundfish and small-bodied forage species during the mid-1980s to one now dominated only by small-bodied pelagic species during the mid-1990s in both southern and northern Gulf. The species structure in the northern Gulf versus southern Gulf was different, which may explain why these two ecosystems did not recover the same way from the collapse in the early 1990s. Productivity declined in the northern Gulf after the collapse but increased in the southern Gulf. The collapse of groundfish stocks resulted in declines in the mean trophic level of the landings in both the northern and the southern Gulf. Even though fishing mortality was then intentionally reduced, this part of the total mortality was taken up by predation. The temporal changes in the internal structure of both ecosystems are reflected in their overall emergent properties.     

Warming and salinification of Labrador Sea Water and deep waters in the subpolar North Atlantic at 60°N in 1997–2006

A quantitative estimate of the temperature and salinity variations in the Labrador Sea Water (LSW), the Iceland-Scotland Overflow Water (ISOW), and the Denmark Strait Overflow Water (DSOW) is given on the basis of the analysis of repeated observations over a transatlantic section along 60°N in 1997, 2002, 2004, and 2006. The changes distinguished in the research evidence strong warming and salinification in the layers of the Labrador Sea Water and deep waters at the latitude of the section. The maximum increments of the temperature (+0.35°C) and salinity (+0.05 psu) were found in the Irminger Basin in the core of the deep LSW, whose convective renewal in the Labrador Sea stopped in the mid-1990s. The long-term freshening of the ISOW, which started in the mid-1960s, changed in the mid-1990s to a period of intense stable warming and salinification of this water. By 2005, the salinity in the core of the ISOW in the Iceland Basin increased to the values (～34.99 psu) characteristic of the mid-1970s. In 2002, the warming “signal” of the ISOW reached the Irminger Basin. From 1997 to 2006, the warming and salinification of the columns of the Labrador Sea Water and deep waters became as high as 0.2°C and 0.03 psu, respectively. The character of the long-term variations in the thermohaline properties of the LSW and ISOW from the 1950s evidence that these variations were nearly in-phase and correlated with the low-frequency component of the North Atlantic Oscillation.     

Interdecadal modulation of interannual atmospheric and oceanic variability over the North Pacific

The interdecadal modulation of interannual variability of the atmosphere and ocean is examined over the North Pacific by using Wavelet Transform combined with Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) or Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) analysis. For the period of record 1899–1997, the interannual variability of the wintertime Aleutian Low, identified by either the North Pacific Index or the leading eigenvector (EOF-1) of North Pacific sea level pressure (SLP), exhibits an interdecadal modulation. Interannual variance in the strength of the Aleutian Low was relatively large from the mid-1920s to mid-1940s and in the mid-1980s, but relatively small in the periods from 1899 to the mid-1920s and from the mid-1940s to the mid-1970s. The periods of high (low) interannual variability roughly coincide with pentadecadal regimes having a time averaged relatively intense (weak) Aleutian Low. Consistent with this SLP variability the interannual variance in the zonal wind stress is strengthened in the central North Pacific after the 1970s. The SLP EOF-2, which is related to the North Pacific Oscillation, exhibited a strengthening trend from the beginning of this century to the mid-1960s. After the 1970s, the interannual variance of SLP EOF-2 is generally smaller than that in the period from 1930 to 1970. Similar interdecadal changes in interannual variance are found in expansion coefficients for the first two EOFs of the Pacific sector 500 hPa height field for the period 1946–1993. EOF-1 of Pacific sector 500 hPa corresponds to the Pacific/North American (PNA) teleconnection pattern, while EOF-2 is related to the Western Pacific (WP) pattern. The relative influence of the atmospheric PNA and WP interannual variability on North Pacific SSTs appears to have varied at pentadecadal time scales. Results from an SVD analysis of winter season (December–February) 500 hPa and North Pacific spring season (March–May) SST fields demonstrate that the PNA-related SST anomaly exhibited larger interannual variance after the 1970s, whereas the interannual variance of the WP related SST anomaly is larger before the 1970s. Correlations between the coastal North Pacific SST records and gridded atmospheric field data also change on interdecadal time scales. Our results suggest that the SST records from both the northwest and northeast Pacific coasts were more closely coupled with the PNA teleconnection pattern during the periods of 1925–1947 and 1977–1997 than in the regime from 1948 to 1976. Teleconnections between ENSO and preferred patterns of atmospheric variability over the North Pacific also appear to vary on interdecadal time scales. However, these variations do not reflect a unique regime-dependent influence. Our results indicate that ENSO is primarily related to the PNA (WP) pattern in the first (last) half of the present century. Correlation coefficients between indices for ENSO and PNA-like atmospheric variability are remarkably weak in the period from 1948 to 1976.     

Some thoughts on the spring-neap cycle of tidal dissipation

The spring-neap cycle of global energy dissipation by ocean tides is calculated with a view to trying to explain an observed anomaly in the tidal fluctuations in the length of day. Calculations are performed in three ways: dissipation by friction linearly proportional to semidiurnal tide velocity, by quadratic friction, and by the torques of the lunar and solar tidal forces on the solar and lunar ocean tides, respectively. All methods give comparable results equivalent to an amplitude of about 0.1 μs change in the length of day with a small phase lag. These are inadequate to explain the observed anomaly of about 3 μs and 0.1 rad phase lag. Further investigations, to determine the generation of a non-equilibrium global MSf wave of equatorial amplitude 0.9 mm by nonlinear interactions in shallow seas using global tide models and observations, are suggested.     

极地预报年及相关科学问题

为有效应对全球气候变化和极地增暖挑战,世界气象组织（WMO）于2013年启动了"极地预报计划"（PPP,2013-2022年）,并于2017年启动了PPP的核心行动"极地预报年"（YOPP,2017年中期至2019年中期）。本文对"极地预报计划"和"极地预报年"的相关情况进行了介绍,重点说明了该研究项目支撑下在社会效益、检验、观测、模拟、资料同化、集合预报、可预报性和诊断、全球关联8个领域需要解决的科学问题和开展的工作。同时,探讨了我国借PPP/YOPP实施契机,在极地现场观测、数值预报和信息服务方面需要做出的努力。     

Structure of temperature variability in the high latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere

The spatial structure of surface air temperature (SAT) anomalies in the extratropical latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere (NH) during the 20th century is studied from the data obtained over the period 1892–1999. The expansion of the mean (over the winter and summer periods) SAT anomalies into empirical orthogonal functions (EOFs) is used for analysis. It is shown that variations in the mean air temperature in the Arctic region (within the latitudes 60°–90°N) during both the winter and summer periods can be described with a high accuracy by two spatial orthogonal modes of variability. For the winter period, these are the EOF related to the leading mode of variability of large-scale atmospheric circulation in the NH, the North Atlantic Oscillation, and the spatially localized (in the Arctic) EOF, which describes the Arctic warming of the mid-20th century. The expansion coefficient of this EOF does not correlate with the indices of atmospheric circulation and is hypothetically related to variations in the area of the Arctic ice cover that are due to long-period variations in the influx of oceanic heat from the Atlantic. On the whole, a significantly weaker relation to the atmospheric circulation is characteristic of the summer period. The first leading variability mode describes a positive temperature trend of the past decades, which is hypothetically related to global warming, while the second leading EOF describes a long-period oscillation. On the whole, the results of analysis suggest a significant effect of natural climatic variability on air-temperature anomalies in the NH high latitudes and possible difficulties in isolating an anthropogenic component of climate changes.     

Interannual and Decadal Sea-Level Variations along the Japanese Coast

Interannual (an annual to a decadal) and decadal sea-level variations along the Japanese coast have been investigated on the basis of monthly mean sea level during the period from 1951 to 1995. For the interannual variation, the Japanese coast is divided into six regions according to a regional similarity of sea level by using the cluster analysis, which is close to Tsumura's (1963) classification. The first mode of the Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) of the Interannual variation is the simultaneous rising and falling of the sea level along the Japanese coast. The first mode shows the largest variation in winter and has a negative correlation with the wintertime monsoon index; this suggests that the first mode is associated with a steric height change depending on the wintertime cooling intensity. The EOF second mode represents the Kuroshio large meander because strong negative eigenvectors are seen on the southeast coast of Japan and the time coefficient shows a high correlation with the Kushimoto-Uragami sea-level difference. For the decadal sea-level variation, the EOF first mode is a bi-decadal variation exhibiting simultaneous rising and falling of the sea level for the entire Japanese coast. The time coefficient of the first mode shows the first minimum in 1965, reaches a maximum in 1975, and decreases to the second minimum in 1984. The decrease from the mid-1970s and the increase from the mid-1980s to early 1990s correspond to the climatic regime shifts occurring in the same periods.     

东海内陆架泥质区中全新世环境敏感粒度组分的地质意义

尝试恢复了中全新世东亚冬季风表现出的太阳活动以及ENSO周期变化。通过对东海内陆架泥质沉积区EC2005孔进行粒度分析以及AMS碳-14测年,对高分辨率敏感粒度资料揭示的中全新世近700a(距今5.2~5.9ka)东亚冬季风记录与GRIP冰心氧同位素记录的气候变化进行了对比,良好的对应关系说明,东亚冬季风变化与格陵兰冰心揭示的古气候变化有某种内在联系,期间东亚冬季风的增强得到了良好的区域性响应,同时又具有全球性背景。中全新世东亚冬季风具有明显的周期变化,主要表现为62,11a的太阳活动周期以及与现代ENSO周期相似的6,5a周期。东海内陆架EC2005孔泥质沉积物揭示的中全新世东亚冬季风变化与格陵兰冰心氧同位素记录的良好对应说明两者有相似的发生机制,可能是太阳活动以及古ENSO对全球气候系统的影响所致。     

Changes of cooling near mesopause under global warming from observations and model simulations

The results of joint analysis of temperature variations near mesopause from long-term measurements at the Zvenigorod Scientific Station of the Obukhov Institute of Atmospheric Physics RAS in 1960–2015 and variations of surface air temperature characterizing global climate change. Together with variations of temperature at the mesopause T _ms from measurements of the hydroxyl emissions we analyzed the temperature variations near mesopause T _m reduced to the same level of solar activity. The observed strong decrease in temperature near mesopause during last decades, particularly in winter, with its tendency to slow down since the 1980’s is was detected against the background of general increase in the surface air temperature of the Northern Hemisphere T _NHs and the Earth as a whole. It was revealed a sharp drop in winter temperature near mesopause in 1970s. and its synchronicity with the shift in climatic features at the surface associated with changes in formation of El Nino events and their impact on the global climate. The general significant negative correlation of temperature variations near mesopause and T _NHs detected from 56-year observational data was not accompanied by any significant coherence between the most long-period temperature variations from the cross-wavelet analysis. To assess the possible manifestation of this coherence the results of numerical simulations with a global climate model were used. According to model simulations for the 20–21 centuries taking into account anthropogenic forcings for significant coherence between long-term variations T _m and T _NHs the prolonged observations are required for temperature near mesopause–about a century or more.     

Ridge event detection: T-phase signals from the Juan de Fuca spreading center

An analysis of T-phase source locations determined in the mid-1960s for an area of the northeast Pacific Ocean encompassing the Juan de Fuca spreading center reveals that most of the source locations are associated with regions where seamount chains intersect the spreading center and with edifices both along and near the spreading center. The T-phase source locations also tend to cluster on, or near, areas of the most concentrated and vigorous hydrothermal venting along the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Of the 58 T-phase source locations determined for a period from October 1964 through December 1966, only one was found to be associated with an earthquake detected by the National Geophysical Data Center/National Earthquake Information Service because of the characteristic small magnitude of spreading-center seismic events. Monitoring T-phase activity originating along the 80 000 km-long global seafloor spreading-center system offers a practical and unique opportunity to better understand the dynamics and oceanic effects of episodic spreading-center tectonic, volcanic, and hydrothermal processes.     

Grand minima of solar activity and sociodynamics of culture

Indices of creative productivity introduced by C. Murrey were used to verify S. Ertel’s conclusion about a global increase in creative productivity during the prolonged minimum of solar activity in 1640–1710. It was found that these indices for mathematicians, philosophers, and scientists increase in the Maunder era by factor of 1.6 in comparison with intervals of the same length before and after the minimum. A similar effect was obtained for mathematicians and philosophers for five earlier equitype minima in total (an increase by a factor of 1.9). The regularity that is revealed is confirmed by the fact that the most important achievements of high-ranking mathematicians and philosophers during the whole time period (2300 years) considered in this study fall on epochs of reduced levels of solar activity. The rise in the probability of the generation of rational ideas during grand minima is reflected also in the fact that they precede the appearance of written language and farming. Ultra-low-frequency electromagnetic fields appear to serve as a physical agent stimulating the activity of the brain’s left hemisphere during the epochs of minima.     

Are solar activity and sperm whale Physeter macrocephalus strandings around the North Sea related?

In the final decades of the last century, an increasing number of strandings of male sperm whales (Physeter macrocephalus) around the North Sea led to an increase in public interest. Anthropogenic influences (such as contaminants or intensive sound disturbances) are supposed to be the main causes, but natural environmental effects may also explain the disorientation of the animals. We compared the documented sperm whale strandings in the period from 1712 to 2003 with solar activity, especially with sun spot number periodicity and found that 90% of 97 sperm whale stranding events around the North Sea took place when the smoothed sun spot period length was below the mean value of 11 years, while only 10% happened during periods of longer sun spot cycles. The relation becomes even more pronounced (94% to 6%, n = 70) if a smaller time window from November to March is used (which seems to be the main southward migration period of male sperm whales). Adequate chi-square tests of the data give a significance of 1% error probability that sperm whale strandings can depend on solar activity. As an alternative explanation, we suggest that variations of the earth's magnetic field, due to variable energy fluxes from the sun to the earth, may cause a temporary disorientation of migrating animals.     

The role of cosmic and ionospheric disturbances in global climatic changes and pipeline corrosion

Physical causes controlling the influence of the main cosmic factors on the state of the ionosphere and, further, on weather and climatic phenomena, including the global warming, are investigated. These investigations are based on the Rydberg excitation of the experimentally observed microwave radiation of the Earth’s ionosphere by energetic ionospheric electrons. This microwave radiation virtually freely penetrates into the lower atmosphere, providing channels for the influence of solar variability on terrestrial phenomena. The factors causing an anomalous wear of Russian pipeline systems are also analyzed, and the methods for reducing their rapid corrosion through taking into account the influence of heliogeomagnetic and ionospheric disturbances are described. Such investigations are supported by the space experiment on permanent monitoring of the factors controlling heliogeomagnetic activity, i.e., fluxes of ionizing radiation of the Sun and fluxes of electrons precipitating from the radiation belts.     

Effects of the equatorial quasi-biennial oscillation in the total ozone content over Russia

On the basis of ground-based measurements of total ozone content (TOC) over Russia and a number of neighboring states during 1973–2002, the amplitudes and phases of TOC variations caused by the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO) of wind in the equatorial stratosphere are estimated for different regions and for the whole area. The seasonal dependence of the QBO effect in the TOC is analyzed. It is shown that the magnitude and even the sign of the effect depend on the relation between the equatorial QBO phase and the season. The regional empirical models of seasonally dependent QBO effects are constructed. It is found that the seasonal dependence of regional effects accounts for 4% (in the north of the area) to 20% (in the south) of the interannual variability of the TOC. The relation between the QBO effect and the 11-year cycle of solar activity is analyzed. Significant differences are revealed in the effects under the conditions of maximum and minimum solar activity. The QBO effects obtained from observations at Russian stations, satellite measurements with a TOMS instrument, and spectrometric observations of the TOC at western European stations are compared, and their satisfactory agreement is shown. An analysis of the results suggests that the QBO effects in the TOC over Russia are caused by several interacting factors and apparently reflect their regional properties.     

Analysis and prognosis of tropical cyclone genesis over the western North Pacific on the background of global warming

1 IntroductionAs is well known, the increasing greenhousegas and SO2extricated into the atmosphere due to hu-man activities have alreadyresulted in the global sur-face air temperature (SAT) and sea surface temper-ature (SST) rising. The globally mean surf…     

北太平洋年代际涛动与太阳活动的联系

采用逐次滤波法分析了北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际振荡特征及其主要影响因子,探索太阳活动对于北太平洋海洋大气系统年代际变化的影响。结果表明,太阳活动是北太平洋海洋大气系统周期性年代际振荡的重要影响因子,具体反映在：1）北太平洋年代际涛动（PDO,Pacific Decadal Oscillation）存在与太阳活动密切相关的22年周期和11年周期,是PDO仅次于趋势项最重要的周期成分,其方差贡献率分别为20．9％和6．7％。研究发现北太平洋年代际涛动变化对于太阳活动的响应方式与太阳活动强弱程度有联系,太阳活动水平强时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相同并且振荡幅度大;太阳活动水平弱时PDO与太阳磁场变化符号相反并且振荡幅度小。2）滤除持续下降趋势之后,北太平洋冬季阿留申低压活动区海平面气压（SLP,Sea Level Pressure）表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数（MI,Magnetic index）基本反相的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为13．4％和1．1％。3）滤除持续升温趋势以后北太平洋100hPa冬季大气温度距平场表现出与太阳磁场磁性指数基本一致的周期性振荡,滤除22年周期之后11年周期也比较清楚,其方差贡献率分别为15．1％和1．1％。研究结果说明,在太阳活动对于大气温度场的影响过程中,黑子磁场磁性变化是决定性的,即决定了温度变化符号,MI绝对值的变化即太阳磁场强度变化影响其量变。     

Dynamics of the abundance of some bivalve species in Russian waters of the Sea of Japan and its prognosis

The abundance dynamics of several species of bivalve mollusks spats were studied on scallop collectors situated in Minonosok bay of Pos’eta Gulf for 27 years and for 4 years in Kit bay of the Sea of Japan (Russia). A significant positive relation was found between the species having similar thermopathy: the Japanese scallop Mizuhopecten yessoensis and Swift’s scallop Swiftopecten swifti, as well as between the wrinkled rock borer Hiatella arctica and Swift’s scallop Swiftopecten swifti. A significant reverse relation was found between the bay mussel Mytilus trossulus and the Northern Pacific seastar Asterias amurensis. Some of the studied mollusks of Minonosok bay and the remote Kit bay display a significant reversed interrelation in their abundance dynamics caused by the precipitation regime. The one-way dispersion analysis a revealed significant influence of the water temperature in June and the precipitation abundance in the summer on Swift’s scallop’s dynamic abundance. The two-way dispersion analysis showed a significant influence of the ice period duration and the solar activity expressed in Wolf’s numbers on the Japanese scallop abundance dynamics. The uneven years in the period from 1977 to 1984 were usually productive for M. yessoensis and S. swifti spat. After 1985, the even years became more productive (there was asynchronicity in the abundance dynamics compared with 1977–1984). Such asynchronicity appeared with the advent of the new 22-year solar cycle, which caused a change in the magnet polarity in 1986.