Source identification and apportionment for atmospheric aerosol by factor analysis

The statistical basis for factor analysis is briefly discussed. A method combining common factor analysis with orthogonal transformation has been proposed and discussed in detail. The method has been tested with a data set consisting of 16 elemental concentrations in 40 samples collected at the Beijing meteorological tower, March 1980. Seven sources-soil+coal fly ash, sulfate, cement and lime dust, oil, plant burning, motor, and marine aerosol-corresponding to the first seven factors have been identified. The source profiles and their contributions have been obtained.     

Helping operationalise Article 2: A transdisciplinary methodological tool for evaluating when climate change is dangerous

Although a global climate regime has been developed, decisions regarding a definition of dangerous climate change have been postponed in the political arena and have only been marginally addressed by the IPCC. This paper presents a participatory integrated assessment method, consisting of an iterative set of science-policy dialogues within and between countries, as well as a focus on indicators of dangerous climate impacts, short-listing and clustering these indicators, identifying threshold levels of unacceptable impacts, and then back-calculating to greenhouse gas concentration levels. This method, applied in the Netherlands, yielded some interesting results and some consensus knowledge among the stakeholders who participated.     

A Scheme for Objective Analysis of Wind Field Incorporating Multi-Weighting Functions in the Optimum Interpolation Method

A method of objective analysis scheme having three different weighting functions for different conditions of the wind flow has been developed for the Indian region, two of which are anisotropic and third one is isotropic. Basically Gandin’s Optimum Interpolation method is used. The “effective” distance between a grid point and observation point used for the anisotropic functions, has been applied to calculate weighting functions following Benjamin and Seaman (1985) and objective analyses were made at the 700 hPa level for three consecutive days from 6 July to 8 July 1979. The quantitative evaluation of the objectively analysed fields have been made by computing the R.M.S. errors. Ana-lyses obtained using multi-weighting functions (anisotropic) and those obtained using ordinary circular functions (isotropic-Gandin, 1963) have been compared. Also, the centres of the monsoon depressions obtained by this method have been compared with those of subjective analyses.     

长期天气预告的物理基础

“云掩中秋月,雨打上元灯。”“重阳无雨一冬晴。”这两句天气俚谚,很明显的告诉我们,长期天气预告并不是十分时髦的问题。千年前的农民和诗人对於这个问题早就有了深切的注意和相当的认识了。他们凭著经验的提示,诗兴的焕发,作了许多关於这类的俚谚,为的是要诱掖後人们注意天气的前後相互关系。这些天气俚谚是否能够兑现呢?这个问题恐怕是许多人要问的。严格的讲,这类的俚谚大都没有兑现的可能,他们的普遍流行,只不过是表示一个农业国家的     

预报方程时变参数的一种新递推方案

针对经典递推算法的平稳性和初值敏感性问题，根据描述运动变化的一般性原理，导出一种新的递推算法，并将其引入到气候预报中。理论和实践证明，该方案成功地解决了经典递推算法存在的平稳性和初值敏感性问题。初步的预报应用结果也表明，该方案具有明显的优越性。     

Detecting inhomogeneity in daily climate series using wavelet analysis

A wavelet method was applied to detect inhomogeneities in daily meteorological series, data which are being increasingly applied in studies of climate extremes. The wavelet method has been applied to a few well- established long-term daily temperature series back to the 18th century, which have been ＂homogenized＂ with conventional approaches. Various types of problems remaining in the series were revealed with the wavelet method. Their influences on analyses of change in climate extremes are discussed. The results have importance for understanding issues in conventional climate data processing and for development of improved methods of homogenization in order to improve analysis of climate extremes based on daily data.     

A one dimensional wind profile model with stability and eddy viscosity estimations from sodar data

In a one-dimensional wind profile model, methods for eddy viscosity and stability estimations from sodar data have been evaluated with soundings. For eddy viscosity parameterization the ageostrophic method and mixing-length theory have been investigated. Three methods for estimating the static stability have been evaluated; a wind profile adjustment method, gravity wave analysis of sodar backscatter and flux profile functions for windspeed and standard deviation of vertical wind-speed. The wind profile model with variable momentum flux (VF) with height shows better results than an earlier constant flux model (Bergström, 1986). The VF model can be used for extending the sodar profile up to 1500 m.     

三维可压缩大气中的云尺度模式

我们设计了一个三维云尺度模式,它的控制方程由二部分组成:一是Euler式的可压缩运动方程,连续方程,压力变化方程及热力学方程;二是Lagrange式的云-降水微物理方程组。由于声波的存在对各个方程积分过程的影响程度不同,运用了时间分离方法。网格结构设计了二种:一般的和交叉的,并分别采用了松野积分方案和半隐式积分方案。模式经过严格的调试以后,进行了多个个例模拟研究,表明模式是稳定的,给出了合理的三维对流的发展图象,不仅模拟出垂直对流环流,而且模拟出对应的水平涡坏。利用该模式,研究了水平涡坏的形成和发展对云内下沉气流激发的影响和作用。     

暴雨落区及强度的多维相似预报方法

选取１９７０－１９９５年暴雨个例，采用Ｆ判别方法对产生暴雨的天气形势进行分型，选取发生暴雨的落区及强度预报指标，研制了暴雨的多维相似预报方法。在实际预报中取得了明显的效果。     

JFNK方法概述及其在大气全隐式非静力模式中的应用方案

首先介绍了近年来新发展的非线性方程全隐式数值求解的JFNK方法,及其在地球流体力学方面应用计算实例.可看到,无论在计算精度还是计算效率方面,全隐式数值求解远远超过常规的半隐式计算格式.其次,还讨论了JFNK方法在气象非静力模式中应用方案,并提出了用静力假定和半隐式差分格式来构造预条件处理器,变三维求解为二维求解,简化了方程组求解难度.该方案不仅可用于差分模式,也为用譜方法求解非静力模式提供可能.     

前向散射能见度仪测试模拟环境与试验

能见度是气象、环境和交通观测重要要素,目前不同原理和型号的前向散射能见度仪没有统一的测试环境和定标标准,导致测量结果差别大。为实现前向散射能见度仪统一测试环境,研制了雾环境模拟舱,采用造雾器和净化器组合实现能见度10m到50km模拟。寻找模拟舱内空气均匀度监控方法,消除由空气不均匀带来的误差。测试不同型号的前向散射能见度仪和相同型号能见度仪,结果显示不同型号能见度仪测量值差别大于一倍,同一型号的能见度仪测量值相对误差在±5%内。尝试不同型号能见度仪修正方法,并且验证修正方法可行,修正后的不同型号仪器相对误差在±10%内。     

组合法确定近地面层湍流通量和通用函数

本文发展了确定近地面层湍流通量的组合法,得到了它们的一般表达式。并用这种方法确定近地面层MO相似性函数。利用ITCE的观测资料作为实例计算,结果表明这种方法是可行的。     

数值预报产品释用的阈值法研究

通过采用阈值法对数值预报产品进行释用,温度和晴雨预报的准确率有了明显提高,结果表明:阈值法是一种简单、快捷、准确的数值预报产品的释用方法,在实际天气预报中非常有效。     

用高分辨率FTIR测量不莱梅港地区HCl和HF在大气中的浓度分布

用高分辨率FTIR测量了Bremerhaven地区太阳红外光谱。通过逐线法及HITRAN数据库计算了拟合光谱,得出该地区HCl和HF的垂直浓度分布。     

用高分辨率FTIR测量不莱梅港地区HCl和HF在大气中的浓度分布

用高分辨率FTIR测量了Bremerhaven地区太阳红外光谱。通过逐线法及HITRAN数据库计算了拟合光谱,得出该地区HCl和HF的垂直浓度分布。     

北半球三层准地转波谱模式

文中,非线性项的处理用了变维方法,纬向的“完全的谱方法”及经向的“准谱方法”,既有利于克服非线性不稳定,且能大大节省计算量及存储量,使之能在小型计算机上实现其程序设计。通过设计多个地形曲面的办法来考虑地形的作用。在时间差分格式中,将时间步长取成波数的函数,有利于节省计算量。这模式从一九七四年九月开始进行了较多个例的预报实验,其72小时以内的预报效果是比较好的。     

A THREE-DIMENSIONAL CLOUD-SCALE MODEL SUITABLE FOR COMPRESSIBLE ATMOSPHERE

A three-dimensional cloud-scale model has been designed.The governing equations of the model arecomposed of two groups of equations:one group includes compressible motion equations,continuity equation,pressure equation and thermodynamic equation,which are of Eulerian type,and the other consists of cloud-precipitation microphysics equations which are of Lagrangian type.Since the degree of influence of sound waveon the air motion is quite different from that on the temperature or hydrometeors,the time splitting procedureis used in solving governing equations.Both unstaggered and staggered meshes have been utilized.Integra-tion schemes adopted are the Eulerian backward difference method for the unstaggered mesh and semi-implicitmethod for staggered mesh.Several experiments of modelling have been conducted and a reasonable three-dimensional image of deep convection is obtained.With this model the horizontal and vertical vortex circula-tions are simulated.Furthermore,the effects of horizontal vortex on the formation and development ofdowndraft within cloud have also been studied.     

THE COMBINATORY METHOD FOR DETERMINATION OF THE TURBULENT FLUXES AND UNIVERSAL FUNCTIONS IN THE SURFACE LAYER*

A combinatory method of determining the turbulent fluxes in the surface layer has been developed and their general representations have been thus obtained.The universal functions of the (M-O) similarity in the surface layer can be determined by the method.The results calculated by using the ITCE's data indicate that the method is feasible.     

SURFACE IMBALANCE ENERGY CALCULATED AND ANALYZED WITH THE DATA OF EBEX-2000*

Mainly.three methods have been developed to calculate turbulence heat flux.They are eddy covariance method,Bowen ratio/energy balance method and aerodynamic method.In this paper, all the three methods have been used to calculate sensible heat flux,latent heat flux and imbalance energy near the surface with the experiment data of EBEX-2000.Then comparisons of the three methods and some possible explanations of the surface imbalance energy are given.     

华南暴雨试验资料的集成处理及显示

在华南暴雨试验中，采用了多种先进的探测系统，不同探测系统采用测量原理不同，资料的时空分辨率及探测精度有差异，为资料的集成带来一定的难度。针对华南暴雨试验的资料，提出多种资料集成和显示方案。多种探测资料的集成处理包括了对资料的预处理、反演、坐标归一化等，并在其基础上建立了互联网上的气象数据动态查询、站网雷达基数据的处理显示系统，利用可以管理和分析大型多维动态复杂数据集的微机可视化系统PC-Vis5D，实现了单部雷达资料、中尺度数值模式输出结果与观测真实数据的动态集成分析显示。