The Prediction of Maximum Amplitudes of Solar Cycles and the Maximum Amplitude of Solar Cycle 24

We present a brief review of predictions of solar cycle maximum amplitude with a lead time of 2 years or more. It is pointed out that a precise prediction of the maximum amplitude with such a lead-time is still an open question despite progress made since the 1960s. A method of prediction using statistical characteristics of solar cycles is developed: the solar cycles are divided into two groups, a high rising velocity (HRV) group and a low rising velocity (LRV) group, depending on the rising velocity in the ascending phase for a given duration of the ascending phase. The amplitude of Solar Cycle 24 can be predicted after the start of the cycle using the formula derived in this paper. Now, about 5 years before the start of the cycle, we can make a preliminary prediction of 83.2-119.4 for its maximum amplitude.     

The Kinematic Theory of Solar Dynamo

Generation of the Sun‘s magnetic fields by self-inductive processes in the solar electrically conducting interior, the solar dynamo theory, is a fundamentally important subject in astrophysics. The kinematic dynamo theory concerns how the magnetic fields are produced by kinematically possible flows without being constrained by the dynamic equation. We review a number of basic aspects of the kinematic dynamo theory, including the magnetohydrodynamic approximation for the dynamo equation, the impossibility of dynamo action with the solar differential rotation, the Cowling‘s anti-dynamo theorem in the solar context, the turbulent alpha effect and recently constructed three-dimensional interface dynamos controlled by the solar tachocline at the base of the convection zone.     

Distribution of Helical Properties of Solar Magnetic Fields

We summarize studies of helical properties of solar magnetic fields such as current helicity and twist of magnetic fields in solar active regions (ARs), that are observational tracers of the alpha-effect in the solar convective zone (SCZ). Information on their spatial distribution is obtained by analysis of systematic mag-netographic observations of active regions taken at Huairou Solar Observing Station of National Astronomical Observatories of Chinese Academy of Sciences. The main property is that the tracers of the alpha-effect are antisymmetric about the solar equator. Identifying longitudinal migration of active regions with their individual rotation rates and taking into account the internal differential rotation law within the SCZ known from helioseismology, we deduce the distribution of the effect over depth. We have found evidence that the alpha-effect changes its value and sign near the bottom of the SCZ, and this is in accord with the theoretical studies and numerical simulations. We discuss     

Combined Analysis of Solar Neutrino and Solar Irradiance Data: Further Evidence for Variability of the Solar Neutrino Flux and Its Implications Concerning the Solar Core

A search for any particular feature in any single solar neutrino dataset is unlikely to establish variability of the solar neutrino flux since the count rates are very low. It helps to combine datasets, and in this article we examine data from both the Homestake and GALLEX experiments. These show evidence of modulation with a frequency of 11.85 year⁻¹, which could be indicative of rotational modulation originating in the solar core. We find that precisely the same frequency is prominent in power spectrum analyses of the ACRIM irradiance data for both the Homestake and GALLEX time intervals. These results suggest that the solar core is inhomogeneous and rotates with a sidereal frequency of 12.85 year⁻¹. From Monte Carlo calculations, it is found that the probability that the neutrino data would by chance match the irradiance data in this way is only 2 parts in 10 000. This rotation rate is significantly lower than that of the inner radiative zone (13.97 year⁻¹) as recently inferred from analysis of Super-Kamiokande data, suggesting that there may be a second, inner tachocline separating the core from the radiative zone. This opens up the possibility that there may be an inner dynamo that could produce a strong internal magnetic field and a second solar cycle.     

Evidence for a Strong Correlation of Solar Proton Events with Solar Radio Bursts

A statistical analysis is made on the correlation between solar proton events with energies >10Mev and solar radio bursts during the four-year period from 1997 November to 2000 November. We examine 28 solar proton events and their corresponding solar radio bursts at 15400, 8800, 4995, 2695, 1415, 606, 410 and 245 MHz. The statistical result shows that there is a close association between solar proton events and ≥3 solar radio bursts occurring at several frequencies, one or two days before. In particular, it is noteworthy that proton events occurring     

Do Solar Coronal Holes Affect the Properties of Solar Energetic Particle Events?

The intensities and timescales of gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events at 1 AU may depend not only on the characteristics of shocks driven by coronal mass ejections (CMEs), but also on large-scale coronal and interplanetary structures. It has long been suspected that the presence of coronal holes (CHs) near the CMEs or near the 1-AU magnetic footpoints may be an important factor in SEP events. We used a group of 41 E≈ 20 MeV SEP events with origins near the solar central meridian to search for such effects. First we investigated whether the presence of a CH directly between the sources of the CME and of the magnetic connection at 1 AU is an important factor. Then we searched for variations of the SEP events among different solar wind (SW) stream types: slow, fast, and transient. Finally, we considered the separations between CME sources and CH footpoint connections from 1 AU determined from four-day forecast maps based on Mount Wilson Observatory and the National Solar Observatory synoptic magnetic-field maps and the Wang–Sheeley–Arge model of SW propagation. The observed in-situ magnetic-field polarities and SW speeds at SEP event onsets tested the forecast accuracies employed to select the best SEP/CH connection events for that analysis. Within our limited sample and the three analytical treatments, we found no statistical evidence for an effect of CHs on SEP event peak intensities, onset times, or rise times. The only exception is a possible enhancement of SEP peak intensities in magnetic clouds.     

The “FIP Effect” and the Origins of Solar Energetic Particles and of the Solar Wind

We find that the element abundances in solar energetic particles (SEPs) and in the slow solar wind (SSW), relative to those in the photosphere, show different patterns as a function of the first ionization potential (FIP) of the elements. Generally, the SEP and SSW abundances reflect abundance samples of the solar corona, where low-FIP elements, ionized in the chromosphere, are more efficiently conveyed upward to the corona than high-FIP elements that are initially neutral atoms. Abundances of the elements, especially C, P, and S, show a crossover from low to high FIP at \({\approx}\,10~\mbox{eV}\) in the SEPs but \({\approx}\,14~\mbox{eV}\) for the solar wind. Naively, this seems to suggest cooler plasma from sunspots beneath active regions. More likely, if the ponderomotive force of Alfvén waves preferentially conveys low-FIP ions into the corona, the source plasma that eventually will be shock-accelerated as SEPs originates in magnetic structures where Alfvén waves resonate with the loop length on closed magnetic field lines. This concentrates FIP fractionation near the top of the chromosphere. Meanwhile, the source of the SSW may lie near the base of diverging open-field lines surrounding, but outside of, active regions, where such resonance does not exist, allowing fractionation throughout the chromosphere. We also find that energetic particles accelerated from the solar wind itself by shock waves at corotating interaction regions, generally beyond 1 AU, confirm the FIP pattern of the solar wind.     

Solar Control of Martian Polar Caps?

Regression of polar caps of Mars for the period 1905–1988 shows a highly significant anticorrelation with sunspot numbers. This behaviour is abnormal since the regression exhibited a significant correlation for the period 1862–1912. Combined with such unusual behaviour of Jupiter and Neptune, reported earlier, this may imply a common cause outside the solar system, viz., variation of the density of the local interstellar medium.     

Wavelet Analysis of Space Solar Telescope Images

The scientific satellite SST (Space Solar Telescope) is an important research project strongly supported by the Chinese Academy of Sciences. Every day, SST acquires 50 GB of data (after processing) but only 10GB can be transmitted to the ground because of limited time of satellite passage and limited channel volume. Therefore, the data must be compressed before transmission. Wavelets analysis is a new technique developed over the last 10 years, with great potential of application. We start with a brief introduction to the essential principles of wavelet analysis, and then describe the main idea of embedded zerotree wavelet coding, used for compressing the SST images. The results show that this coding is adequate for the job.     

Key Properties of Solar Chromospheric Line Formation Process

The distribution or wavelength-dependence of the formation regions of frequently used solar lines, Hα，Hβ，CaIIH and CaII8542,in quiet Sun,faint and bright flares is explored in the unpolarized case.We stress four aspects characterising the property of line formation process:1) width of line formation core;2) line formation region;3)influence of the temperature minimum region; and 4) wavelength ranges within which one can obtain pure chromospheric and photospheric filtergrams.It is shown that the above four aspects depend strongly on the atmospheric physical condition and the lines used. The formation regions of all the wavelength points within a line may be continuously distributed over one depth domain or discretely distributed because of no contribution coming from the temperature minimum region, an important domain in the solar atmosphere that determines the distribution pattern of escape photons. On the other hand, the formation region of one wavelength point may cover only one height range or spread over two domains which are separated again by the temperature minimum region. Different lines may form in different regions in the quiet Sun. However, these line formation regions become closer in solar flaring regions. Finally, though the stratification of line-of-sight velocity can alter the position of the line formation core within the line band and result in the asymmetry of the line formation core about the shifted line center, it can only lead to negligible changes in the line formation region or the line formation core width. All these results can be instructive to solar filtering observations.     

The Rotation Rates of Solar Magnetic Fields During Solar Cycles 21 – 23

Employing the synoptic maps of the photospheric magnetic fields from the beginning of solar cycle 21 to the end of 23, we first build up a time – longitude stackplot at each latitude between ±35°. On each stackplot there are many tilted magnetic structures clearly reflecting the rotation rates, and we adopt a cross-correlation technique to explore the rotation rates from these tilted structures. Our new method avoids artificially choosing magnetic tracers, and it is convenient for investigating the rotation rates of the positive and negative fields by omitting one kind of field on the stackplots. We have obtained the following results. i) The rotation rates of the positive and negative fields (or the leader and follower polarities, depending on the hemispheres and solar cycles) between latitudes ±35° during solar cycles 21–23 are derived. The reversal times of the leader and follower polarities are usually not consistent with the years of the solar minimum, nevertheless, at latitudes ±16°, the reversal times are almost simultaneous with them. ii) The rotation rates of the three solar cycles averaged over each cycle are calculated separately for the positive, negative and total fields. The latitude profiles of rotation of the positive and negative fields exhibit equatorial symmetries with each other, and those of the total fields lie between them. iii) The differences in rotation rates between the leader and follower polarities are obtained. They are very small near the equator, and increase as latitude increases. In the latitude range of 5° – 20°, these differences reach 0.05 deg day⁻¹, and the mean difference for solar cycle 22 is somewhat smaller than cycles 21 and 23 in these latitude regions. Then, the differences reduce again at latitudes higher than 20°.     

Verification of Short-Term Predictions of Solar Soft X-ray Bursts for the Maximum Phase （2000-2001） of Solar Cycle 23

We present a verification of the short-term predictions of solar Xray bursts for the maximum phase (2000-2001) of Solar Cycle 23, issued by two prediction centers. The results are that the rate of correct predictions is about equal for RWC-China and WWA; the rate of too high predictions is greater for RWC-China than for WWA, while the rate of too low predictions is smaller for RWC-China than for WWA.     

Polarization of Microwave Radio Emission of Flare-Producing Solar Active Regions

On the basis of our multiwavelength observations made with the one-dimensional RATAN-600 radio telescope, we study the inversion of the circular polarization in the solar microwave emission at different frequencies. The inversion is detected in the emission of flare-producing active regions (FPARs) at various stages of their development, starting from the pre-flare stage. During the latest 23rd solar cycle maximum, numerous FPARs revealed spectral inhomogeneities in their polarized microwave radiation (Bogod and Tokhchukova, 2003, Astron. Lett. 29, 263). Here, we discuss a particular case of such inhomogeneities, the frequency-dependent double inversion of the sign of circular polarization, which probably reflects some essential processes in FPARs. We consider several mechanisms for the double inversion: linear interaction of waves in the region of a quasitransverse magnetic field, the propagation of waves through a region of zero magnetic field, the scattering of radio waves on waves of high-frequency plasma turbulence, the influence of the current fibrils on the propagation of the radio emission, and the magnetic “dips,” in which the direction of magnetic field lines changes the sign relative to the observer. All of them have shortcomings, but the last mechanism explains the observations the best.     

A Change in the Solar He ii EUV Global Network Structure as an Indicator of the Geo-Effectiveness of Solar Minima

Solar activity during 2007?–?2009 was very low, causing anomalously low thermospheric density. A comparison of solar extreme ultraviolet (EUV) irradiance in the He?ii spectral band (26 to 34 nm) from the Solar Extreme ultraviolet Monitor (SEM), one of instruments on the Charge Element and Isotope Analysis System (CELIAS) on board the Solar and Heliospheric Observatory (SOHO) for the two latest solar minima showed a decrease of the absolute irradiance of about 15±6 % during the solar minimum between Cycles 23 and 24 compared with the Cycle 22/23 minimum when a yearly running-mean filter was used. We found that some local, shorter-term minima including those with the same absolute EUV flux in the SEM spectral band show a higher concentration of spatial power in the global network structure from the 30.4 nm SOHO/Extreme ultraviolet Imaging Telescope (EIT) images for the local minimum of 1996 compared with the minima of 2008?–?2011. We interpret this higher concentration of spatial power in the transition region’s global network structure as a larger number of larger-area features on the solar disk. These changes in the global network structure during solar minima may characterize, in part, the geo-effectiveness of the solar He?ii EUV irradiance in addition to the estimations based on its absolute levels.     

Organization of Energetic Particles by the Solar Wind Structure During the Declining to Minimum Phase of Solar Cycle 23

We investigate the organization of the low energy energetic particles (≤1 MeV) by solar wind structures, in particular corotating interaction regions (CIRs) and shocks driven by interplanetary coronal mass ejections, during the declining-to-minimum phase of Solar Cycle 23 from Carrington rotation 1999 to 2088 (January 2003 to October 2009). Because CIR-associated particles are very prominent during the solar minimum, the unusually long solar minimum period of this current cycle provides an opportunity to examine the overall organization of CIR energetic particles for a much longer period than during any other minimum since the dawn of the Space Age. We find that the particle enhancements associated with CIRs this minimum period recurred for many solar rotations, up to 30 at times, due to several high-speed solar wind streams that persisted. However, very few significant CIR-related energetic particle enhancements were observed towards the end of our study period, reflecting the overall weak high-speed streams that occurred at this time. We also contrast the solar minimum observations with the declining phase when a number of solar energetic particle events occurred, producing a mixed particle population. In addition, we compare the observations from this minimum period with those from the previous solar cycle. One of the main differences we find is the shorter recurrence rate of the high-speed solar wind streams (～10 solar rotations) and the related CIR energetic particle enhancements for the Solar Cycle 22 minimum period. Overall our study provides insight into the coexistence of different populations of energetic particles, as well as an overview of the large-scale organization of the energetic particle populations approaching the beginning of Solar Cycle 24.     

A Possible Cause of the Diminished Solar Wind During the Solar Cycle 23 – 24 Minimum

Interplanetary magnetic field and solar wind plasma density observed at 1 AU during Solar Cycle 23?–?24 (SC-23/24) minimum were significantly smaller than those during its previous solar cycle (SC-22/23) minimum. Because the Earth’s orbit is embedded in the slow wind during solar minimum, changes in the geometry and/or content of the slow wind region (SWR) can have a direct influence on the solar wind parameters near the Earth. In this study, we analyze solar wind plasma and magnetic field data of hourly values acquired by Ulysses. It is found that the solar wind, when averaging over the first (1995.6?–?1995.8) and third (2006.9?–?2008.2) Ulysses’ perihelion (\({\sim}\,1.4~\mbox{AU}\)) crossings, was about the same speed, but significantly less dense (\({\sim}\,34~\%\)) and cooler (\({\sim}\,20~\%\)), and the total magnetic field was \({\sim}\,30~\%\) weaker during the third compared to the first crossing. It is also found that the SWR was \({\sim}\,50~\%\) wider in the third (\({\sim}\,68.5^{\circ}\) in heliographic latitude) than in the first (\({\sim}\,44.8^{\circ}\)) solar orbit. The observed latitudinal increase in the SWR is sufficient to explain the excessive decline in the near-Earth solar wind density during the recent solar minimum without speculating that the total solar output may have been decreasing. The observed SWR inflation is also consistent with a cooler solar wind in the SC-23/24 than in the SC-22/23 minimum. Furthermore, the ratio of the high-to-low latitude photospheric magnetic field (or equatorward magnetic pressure force), as observed by the Mountain Wilson Observatory, is smaller during the third than the first Ulysses’ perihelion orbit. These findings suggest that the smaller equatorward magnetic pressure at the Sun may have led to the latitudinally-wider SRW observed by Ulysses in SC-23/24 minimum.     

Solar Flare Activity and Variability of Electric Current Helicity

1 INTRODUCTIONRecently Bao, Zhang, Ai, and Zhang (1999), using Huairou vector magnetograph data,have shown that the average current helicity (h.) or the curreflt helicity imbalance ph of activeregions change rapidly after so1ar flares. Up'an the onset of flares it tends to decrease for a fewhours and then to increase again, whereas ifQ some cases the flare promotes an increase in thecurrent helicity The observations led to tbe fol1owing conclusions: (1) raPid and substantialchanges of c…     

Algorithm Design and Test of the Solar Guide Telescope

The Solar Guide Telescope (SGT), an important solar attitude sensor of the SST (Space Solar Telescope, a space solar observing instrument being developed in China), can accurately produce pointing error signals of the SST for attitude control at high speed. We analyze in detail the error algorithm of the heliocentric coordinates and the edge judging of solar images. The measuring accuracy of ±0.5 arcsec of the SGT is verified by experiments on the tracking of the Sun and by testing a sun simulator. Some factors causing the pointing errors are examined.     

Detection of Hα Intensity Oscillations in Solar Flares

We report here the first direct evidence for detection of H intensity oscillations in two extended flares of 15 November 1989 and 20 April 1991. The relative intensity variations measured with time at 18 different flare and chromospheric locations were analysed to obtain the oscillation modes. The analysis shows prominent 5- and 3-min modes in flares in addition to their existence in the chromosphere. However, there exists a frequency difference between the flare and chromospheric modes. This frequency deviation of about 300 µHz is proposed as an influence of higher magnetic field, location of the measurements (height) in chromosphere, and high temperature in the flare.