Effects of climate change on forests of the eastern United States

A multi‐phased approach was used to estimate potential impacts of climate change on forests of the eastern United States. Phase I was at community‐level and Phase II examined selected species, both using three 2 x CO₂ climate scenarios. Geographic information systems (GIS) and statistical modeling techniques were used to manipulate and analyze climate and vegetation data, and model vegetation responses to climate change. The first two stages of the study indicated possible large‐scale alteration of forest communities by future climate change. Although results varied among climate models, several trends were apparent. In northern states of the study area, ranges of several conifers declined significantly and ranges of oaks and hickories moved northward. In central states, ranges of sugar maple and tulip poplar became much smaller, with concomitant increases in ranges of southern oaks and loblolly pine. In . southern states, American beech declined and ranges of southern oaks increased northward. This paper discusses results of the first two phases and current progress of the third phase.     

A power-law-based approach to mapping COVID-19 cases in the United States

This paper examines the spatial and temporal distribution of all COVID-19 cases from January to June 2020 against the underlying distribution of population in the United States. It is found that, as time passes, COVID-19 cases become a power law with cutoff, resembling the underlying spatial distribution of populations. The power law implies that many states and counties have a low number of cases, while only a few highly populated states and counties have a high number of cases. To further differentiate patterns between the underlying populations and COVID-19 cases, we derived their inherent hierarchy or spatial heterogeneity characterized by the ht-index. We found that the ht-index of COVID-19 cases persistently approaches that of the populations; that is, 5 and 7 at the state and county levels, respectively. Mapping the ht-index of COVID-19 cases against that of populations shows that the pandemic is largely shaped by the underlying population with the R-square value between infection and population up to 0.82.     

Quantifying the effectiveness of climate change mitigation through forest plantations and carbon sequestration with an integrated land-use model

Background

Carbon plantations are introduced in climate change policy as an option to slow the build-up of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO₂) concentrations. Here we present a methodology to evaluate the potential effectiveness of carbon plantations. The methodology explicitly considers future long-term land-use change around the world and all relevant carbon (C) fluxes, including all natural fluxes. Both issues have generally been ignored in earlier studies.

Results

Two different baseline scenarios up to 2100 indicate that uncertainties in future land-use change lead to a near 100% difference in estimates of carbon sequestration potentials. Moreover, social, economic and institutional barriers preventing carbon plantations in natural vegetation areas decrease the physical potential by 75–80% or more. Nevertheless, carbon plantations can still considerably contribute to slowing the increase in the atmospheric CO₂ concentration but only in the long term. The most conservative set of assumptions lowers the increase of the atmospheric CO₂ concentration in 2100 by a 27 ppm and compensates for 5–7% of the total energy-related CO₂ emissions. The net sequestration up to 2020 is limited, given the short-term increased need for agricultural land in most regions and the long period needed to compensate for emissions through the establishment of the plantations. The potential is highest in the tropics, despite projections that most of the agricultural expansion will be in these regions. Plantations in high latitudes as Northern Europe and Northern Russia should only be established if the objective to sequester carbon is combined with other activities.

Conclusion

Carbon sequestration in plantations can play an important role in mitigating the build-up of atmospheric CO₂. The actual magnitude depends on natural and management factors, social barriers, and the time frame considered. In addition, there are a number of ancillary benefits for local communities and the environment. Carbon plantations are, however, particularly effective in the long term. Furthermore, plantations do not offer the ultimate solution towards stabilizing CO₂ concentrations but should be part of a broader package of options with clear energy emission reduction measures.     

A multi-scale spatiotemporal modeling approach to explore vegetation dynamics patterns under global climate change

Given the complexity of vegetation dynamic patterns under global climate change, multi-scale spatiotemporal explicit models are necessary in order to account for environmental heterogeneity. However, there is no efficient time-series tool to extract, reconstruct and analyze the multi-scale vegetation dynamic patterns under global climate change. To fill this gap, a Multi-Scale Spatio-Temporal Modeling (MSSTM) framework which can incorporate the pixel, scale, and time-specific heterogeneity was proposed. The MSSTM method was defined on proper time-series models for multi-temporal components through wavelet transforms. The proposed MSSTM approach was applied to a subtropical mountainous and hilly agro-forestry ecosystem in southeast China using the moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer enhanced vegetation index (EVI) time-series data sets from 2001 to 2011. The MSSTM approach was proved to be efficient in characterizing and forecasting the complex vegetation dynamic patterns. It provided good estimates of the peaks and valleys of the observed EVI and its average percentages of relative absolute errors of reconstruction was low (6.65). The complexity of the relationship between vegetation dynamics and meteorological parameters was also revealed through the MSSTM method: (1) at seasonal level, vegetation dynamic patterns are strongly associated with climatic variables, primarily the temperature and then precipitation, with correlations slight decreasing (EVI–temperature)/increasing (EVI–precipitation) with altitudinal gradients. (2) At inter-annual scale, obvious positive correlations were primarily observed between EVI and temperature. (3) Despite very low-correlation coefficients observed at intra-seasonal scales, considerable proportions of EVI anomalies are associated with climatic variables, principally the precipitation and sunshine durations.     

海河流域NDVI对气候变化的响应研究

以海河流域为研究区,利用8 km分辨率AVHRR/NDVI数据和气象资料,逐像元对1981-2000年时段的流域NDVI值、年降水量和年均气温的变化率进行分析,计算了NDVI和年降水量、年均气温的相关关系.结果表明,1981-2000年时段内,海河流域年降水量变化总体呈现北部和南部增加,中部减少的趋势,其变化范围在-8...     

Uuno Vilho Helava contributes to photogrammetry in the United States

A sketch of some of the developments masterminded by Uki Helava during his years with Bendix Research Laboratories (1967–1979) and with his own company, Helava Associates, Inc., underlines the significance and breadth of his contribution. Although many of the leading edge developments were responses to US government contracts, the initial impetus behind the formation of Helava Associates was to supply to the commercial market-place and subsequent links with Leica are similarly aimed; thus the practicality of many of the developments is demonstrable.     

全球气候数据集生成及气候变化应用研究

科技部在"十三五"期间部署的国家重点研发计划"全球变化及应对"专项资助了"全球气候数据集生成及气候变化关键过程和要素监测"研究项目。项目围绕由全球气候观测系统提出的基本气候变量,完善地空天基观测体系,生成中国首套以遥感数据为主体的涵盖大气、海洋和陆表长时间序列、高精度、高时空一致性的产品,即气候数据集,动态监测全球变化关键过程和要素。     

Climatic regions as an indicator of forest coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in the United States

Background  

Coarse and fine woody debris are substantial forest ecosystem carbon stocks; however, there is a lack of understanding how these detrital carbon stocks vary across forested landscapes. Because forest woody detritus production and decay rates may partially depend on climatic conditions, the accumulation of coarse and fine woody debris carbon stocks in forests may be correlated with climate. This study used a nationwide inventory of coarse and fine woody debris in the United States to examine how these carbon stocks vary by climatic regions and variables.     

美国高校地理信息系统专业课程教学研究

对美国南伊利诺伊大学地理信息专业中的遥感概论课程的教学、辅导和考核方式等各个方面进行了分析,并与国内高校该专业的课程设置以及教学方法等进行了对比,以期国内高校GIS专业的课程教学从中得到启发和借鉴。     

Delineating managed land for reporting national greenhouse gas emissions and removals to the United Nations framework convention on climate change

Land use and management activities have a substantial impact on carbon stocks and associated greenhouse gas emissions and removals. However, it is challenging to discriminate between anthropogenic and non-anthropogenic sources and sinks from land. To address this problem, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change developed a managed land proxy to determine which lands are contributing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions and removals. Governments report all emissions and removals from managed land to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change based on this proxy, and policy interventions to reduce emissions from land use are expected to focus on managed lands. Our objective was to review the use of the managed land proxy, and summarize the criteria that governments have applied to classify land as managed and unmanaged. We found that the large majority of governments are not reporting on their application of the managed land proxy. Among the governments that do provide information, most have assigned all area in specific land uses as managed, while designating all remaining lands as unmanaged. This designation as managed land is intuitive for croplands and settlements, which would not exist without management interventions, but a portion of forest land, grassland, and wetlands may not be managed in a country. Consequently, Brazil, Canada and the United States have taken the concept further and delineated managed and unmanaged forest land, grassland and wetlands, using additional criteria such as functional use of the land and accessibility of the land to anthropogenic activity. The managed land proxy is imperfect because reported emissions from any area can include non-anthropogenic sources, such as natural disturbances. However, the managed land proxy does make reporting of GHG emissions and removals from land use more tractable and comparable by excluding fluxes from areas that are not directly influenced by anthropogenic activity. Moreover, application of the managed land proxy can be improved by incorporating additional criteria that allow for further discrimination between managed and unmanaged land.     

A GIS-based method for defining snow zones: application to the western United States

This study maps the geographic extent of intermittent and seasonal snow cover in the western United States using thresholds of 2000–2010 average snow persistence derived from moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer snow cover area data from 1 January to 3 July. Results show seasonal snow covers 13% of the region, and intermittent snow covers 25%. The lower elevation boundaries of intermittent and seasonal snow zones increase from north-west to south-east. Intermittent snow is primarily found where average winter land surface temperatures are above freezing, whereas seasonal snow is primarily where winter temperatures are below freezing. However, temperatures at the boundary between intermittent and seasonal snow exhibit high regional variability, with average winter seasonal snow zone temperatures above freezing in west coast mountain ranges. Snow cover extent at peak accumulation is most variable at the upper elevations of the intermittent snow zone, highlighting the sensitivity of this snow zone boundary to climate conditions.     

Estimates of carbon stored in harvested wood products from the United States forest service northern region, 1906-2010

Background  

Global forests capture and store significant amounts of CO₂ through photosynthesis. When carbon is removed from forests through harvest, a portion of the harvested carbon is stored in wood products, often for many decades. The United States Forest Service (USFS) and other agencies are interested in accurately accounting for carbon flux associated with harvested wood products (HWP) to meet greenhouse gas monitoring commitments and climate change adaptation and mitigation objectives. This paper uses the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) production accounting approach and the California Forest Project Protocol (CFPP) to estimate HWP carbon storage from 1906 to 2010 for the USFS Northern Region, which includes forests in northern Idaho, Montana, South Dakota, and eastern Washington.     

Estimating carbon sequestration in the piedmont ecoregion of the United States from 1971 to 2010

Human activities have diverse and profound impacts on ecosystem carbon cycles. The Piedmont ecoregion in the eastern United States has undergone significant land use and land cover change in the past few decades. The purpose of this study was to use newly available land use and land cover change data to quantify carbon changes within the ecoregion. Land use and land cover change data (60-m spatial resolution) derived from sequential remotely sensed Landsat imagery were used to generate 960-m resolution land cover change maps for the Piedmont ecoregion. These maps were used in the Integrated Biosphere Simulator (IBIS) to simulate ecosystem carbon stock and flux changes from 1971 to 2010. Results show that land use change, especially urbanization and forest harvest had significant impacts on carbon sources and sinks. From 1971 to 2010, forest ecosystems sequestered 0.25 Mg C ha?1 yr?1, while agricultural ecosystems sequestered 0.03 Mg C ha?1 yr?1. The total ecosystem C stock increased from 2271 Tg C in 1971 to 2402 Tg C in 2010, with an annual average increase of 3.3 Tg C yr?1. Terrestrial lands in the Piedmont ecoregion were estimated to be weak net carbon sink during the study period. The major factors contributing to the carbon sink were forest growth and afforestation; the major factors contributing to terrestrial emissions were human induced land cover change, especially urbanization and forest harvest. An additional amount of carbon continues to be stored in harvested wood products. If this pool were included the carbon sink would be stronger.     

Brief History of Spatial Information Policies in the United States

Slope exerts a powerful influence on the route selection processes of humans. Attempts to model human movement in hilly and mountainous terrain which have largely focused on least-time route transformations can be improved by incorporating research suggesting that humans systematically overestimate slopes. Such research suggests that cost functions derived from slope should be more expensive than time derivations alone would indicate. This paper presents a method for empirically estimating cost functions for slopes. We use the method to predict routes and paths that are more likely to be selected by humans based on their perceptions of slope. An evaluation of the method found that it successfully predicts road, track and trail locations over a variety of conditions and distances.     

Lake variations in response to climate change in the Tibetan Plateau in the past 40 years

The Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau plays an important role in global climate and environmental change and holds the largest lake area in China, with a total surface area of 36,900 km². The expansion and shrinkage of these lakes are critical to the water cycle and ecological and environmental systems across the plateau. In this paper, surface areas of major lakes within the plateau were extracted based on a topographic map from 1970, and Landsat MSS, TM and ETM+ satellite images from the 1970s to 2008. Then, a multivariate correlation analysis was conducted to examine the relationship between the changes in lake surface areas and the changes in climatic variables including temperature, precipitation, evaporation, and sunshine duration. Initial results suggest that the variations in lake surface areas within the plateau are closely related to the warming, humidified climate transition in recent years such as the rise of air temperature and the increase in precipitation. In particular, the rising temperature accelerates melting of glaciers and perennial snow cover and triggers permafrost degradation, and leads to the expansion of most lakes across the plateau. In addition, different distributions and types of permafrost may cause different lake variations in the southern Tibetan Plateau.     

青藏高原32年湿地对气候变化的空间响应

青藏高原是全球气候变化敏感区,其湿地状况对该区的生态安全有重要影响。基于1975年MSS,1990年TM,2000年ETM和2006年CBERS遥感数据,建立4大类10亚类湿地的遥感解译标志;通过目视和人机交互解译,结合多年野外调查资料,获取4期湿地信息数据;经过Kriging空间插值处理获得1962—2007年青藏高原每一年的年平均降水和气温空间数据;应用Arc Info软件进行Grid计算,以遥感数据的时相分布图为控制层,分别生成4期气温镶嵌图和降水镶嵌图;使用AML宏语言实现湿地变化与气候因子(温度和降水)基于像元的相关分析、偏相关分析和复相关分析,在空间上定量分析湿地变化与气候变化的响应关系。结果表明:青藏高原1975—2000年湿地总面积持续减少,2000年后有所回升;以干燥为主要特征的柴达木流域、祁连山区及黄河流域的湿地变化对降水变化的响应较敏感;在青藏高原整体升温、尤其是低温地区增温幅度较大的情况下,以冰川融水作为补给的湿地对气温变化的响应较为敏感。     

内蒙古植被长势变化及其对气候变化的响应

针对内蒙古不同生态区植被长势时空变化及其对气候变化的响应差异问题,本文基于MODIS遥感数据构建植被长势指数(GI)模型,结合研究区气温降水数据,利用相关分析法研究了该区植被长势对不同气候因子响应的时空差异特征.结果表明:内蒙古近17a生长季植被GI整体呈上升趋势,森林生态区和草原生态区植被长势平稳,荒漠草原生态区植被长势较好;生长季植被GI均值在空间上呈南高北低的分布特征,植被长势整体由好到差表现为荒漠草原生态区＞森林生态区＞草原生态区;植被长势与气温呈负相关关系、与降水呈正相关关系;森林生态区植被长势受气温和降水共同影响,草原生态区和荒漠草原生态区植被长势主要受降水影响;大部分地区表现为受非气候因子驱动.     

美国商业遥感卫星的发展

高分辨率光学遥感卫星是对地观测的重要组成部分,是获取基础地理空间信息的主要技术手段。从1999至今,美国连续发射了IKONOS、QuickBird、WorldView系列多颗高分辨率商业卫星,一直引领着高分辨率光学卫星遥感发展潮流。通过对美国第一、二、三代的多颗典型遥感卫星的设计理念和技术指标进行深入剖析,总结美国商业遥感卫星的特点和发展趋势,对我国的卫星事业发展具有一定借鉴意义。