Application of extension theory in risk zoning of debris flow in Beijing

The occurrence of debris flow is affected by many factors. Risk zoning of debris flow plays a vital role in the early-warning and prediction of abrupt geological hazards, and exploration of new method is needed in the early-warning and prediction of geological hazards. The extension theory is a new method to solve contradiction matters. Based on extension theory, AHP and GIS, the risk zoning model of debris flow was established in this paper. The result of this research provides a new way in the risk zoning, early-warning and prediction of debris flow     

陇东黄土区地质灾害气象预警方法与应用——以泾川县为例

在地质灾害详细调查的基础上,基于GIS平台以地质灾害点密度为依据生成初步地质灾害易发性区划图.从诱发地质灾害的内部因素出发将地层岩性、地形坡度、地貌类型、植被覆盖率、多年降雨量分级后,叠加到初步易发性区划图中,生成了地质灾害气象预警区划基图.以降雨作为诱发地质灾害的主导外在因素,重新对泾川县进行了地质灾害气象预警区划,...     

Artificial Neural Network-based prediction of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin,southeastern Tibetan Plateau,China

Accurate prediction on geological hazards can prevent disaster events in advance and greatly reduce property losses and life casualties.Glacial debris flows are the most serious hazards in southeastern Tibet in China due to their complexity in formation mechanism and the difficulty in prediction.Data collected from 102 glacier debris flow events from 31 gullies since 1970 and regional meteorological data from 1970 to 2019 in ParlungZangbo River Basin in southeastern Tibet were used for Artificial Neural Network(ANN)-based prediction of glacial debris flows.The formation mechanism of glacial debris flows in the ParlungZangbo Basin was systematically analyzed,and the calculations involving the meteorological data and disaster events were conducted by using the statistical methods and two layers fully connected neural networks.The occurrence probabilities and scales of glacial debris flows(small,medium,and large)were predicted,and promising results have been achieved.Through the proposed model calculations,a prediction accuracy of 78.33%was achieved for the scale of glacial debris flows in the study area.The prediction accuracy for both large-and medium-scale debris flows are higher than that for small-scale debris flows.The debris flow scale and the probability of occurrence increase with increasing rainfall and temperature.In addition,the K-fold cross-validation method was used to verify the reliability of the model.The average accuracy of the model calculated under this method is about 93.3%,which validates the proposed model.Practices have proved that the combination of ANN and disaster events can provide sound prediction on geological hazards under complex conditions.     

临沂市地质灾害现状及易发程度分区评价

2016年,临沂市地质灾害排查共查明了391处地质灾害隐患点,主要类型为崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷,崩塌数量最多,其次为采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷。地质灾害规模以小型为主。该文详细介绍了临沂市地质环境背景条件,各类地质灾害发育现状及分布特征。在此基础上,采用"地质灾害综合危险性指数法"进行地质灾害易发性评价,运用栅格数据处理方法将临沂市划分成1350个面积相等的单元,对影响地质灾害发育的地质条件、地形地貌条件、气候植被条件、地质灾害隐患点、地质灾害规模、分布密度、活动频次和险情等要素进行量化,根据实际情况对地质灾害易发程度分级进行定性修正,将临沂市地质灾害易发程度划分为高易发区、中易发区、低易发区及不易发区4个区。预测了地质灾害发展趋势,划分了地质灾害防治分区,建议完善地质灾害预警预报系统,为临沂市应急管理局的地质灾害应急救援提供地质灾害基础背景资料。     

烟台市地质灾害与岩土体类型相关性分析

根据最新一轮地质灾害排查结果,烟台市共发育471处地质灾害隐患点,主要类型包括崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷。该文以烟台市地质环境背景和岩土体类型特征为基础,通过对471处地质灾害隐患点进行统计,首先从地质灾害发育数量和发育密度2个方面分析了烟台市地质灾害在各类岩土体类型中的分布特征,然后重点分析了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、采空塌陷和岩溶塌陷地质灾害与岩土体类型的关系,分析结果表明,崩塌、滑坡、泥石流主要分布在层状变质岩组中,采空塌陷主要分布在侵入岩岩组中,岩溶塌陷发育区土体结构主要为上部第四系松散土体、下部灰岩或大理岩的二元结构。依据地质灾害与岩土体类型相关性分析,可以有针对性地开展地质灾害易发性分区和监测预警工作。     

安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警系统方法研究

地质灾害气象风险预警是地质灾害防范的关键环节,对增强灾害防御能力,变被动救灾为主动防灾避灾具有重要意义。本研究采用确定性系数法和基于CF的权重确定方法,计算了各评价单元的潜势度。通过建立多元回归预测模型,将基于潜势度、预报雨量、有效雨量的气象风险预警系统方法应用于安徽省地质灾害气象风险预警工作中,并建立了一套完整的从数据准备、会商分析、预警制作、签批发布,到预警预报结果反馈信息收集的预警预报工作流程,取得了较好的效果。     

济南市长清区地质灾害易发程度评价及防治分区划分

济南长清区地质灾害发育较强烈,包括崩塌、滑坡、泥石流和岩溶塌陷等4种类型。 该文在现状调查的基础上,采用“地质灾害综合危险性指数法”,以地质、地形地貌、气候植被、地质灾害隐患点、地质灾害规模、分布密度、活动频次和险情等因素为评价因子,将长清区地质灾害易发程度划分为中易发区、低易发区及不易发区3个区,并在此基础上进行了防治分区划分 ,为地质灾害的预防和治理提供了科学依据。     

A Regional-Scale Method of Forecasting Debris Flow Events Based on Water-Soil Coupling Mechanism

A debris flow forecast model based on a water-soil coupling mechanism that takes the debrisflow watershed as a basic forecast unit was established here for the prediction of disasters at the watershed scale.This was achieved through advances in our understanding of the formation mechanism of debris flow.To expand the applicable spatial scale of this forecasting model,a method of identifying potential debris flow watersheds was used to locate areas vulnerable to debris flow within a forecast region.Using these watersheds as forecasting units and a prediction method based on the water-soil coupling mechanism,a new forecasting method of debris flow at the regional scale was established.In order to test the prediction ability of this new forecasting method,the Sichuan province,China was selected as a study zone and the large-scale debris flow disasters attributable to heavy rainfall in this region on July 9,2013 were taken as the study case.According to debris flow disaster data on July 9,2013 which were provided by the geo-environmental monitoring station of Sichuan province,there were 252 watersheds in which debris flow events actually occurred.The current model predicted that 265 watersheds were likely to experience a debris flow event.Among these,43 towns including 204 debrisflow watersheds were successfully forecasted and 24 towns including 48 watersheds failed.The false prediction rate and failure prediction rate of thisforecast model were 23% and 19%,respectively.The results show that this method is more accurate and more applicable than traditional methods.     

柴达木盆地东北缘地质灾害及防治

青海省柴达木盆地东北缘地貌类型复杂,新构造运动强烈,由各种内外应力造成的地质灾害具有类多、发生频繁等现象,集中反映在土地荒漠化、水土流失、草场退化、湖泊萎缩、地震、泥石流及滑坡等面,人类生存环境日趋恶劣。通过对该区各类地质灾害及生态环境现状进行评述,提出了治理建议。     

栖霞市生木树泥石流隐患点发育特征及发展趋势分析评价

栖霞市生木树泥石流隐患点为烟台市471处地质灾害隐患点其中1处,曾于1979年7月因暴雨引发泥石流灾害,给当地村民造成严重经济损失。以该泥石流沟流域作为研究区,并以区内泥石流发育的自然环境、基本特征及形成泥石流的地质条件、物源条件和水源条件等勘察成果为基础,综合分析区内泥石流发育特征、类型、形成机理、引发因素,并选取相关参数对泥石流基本特征值进行计算,为同类型泥石流的防治提供科学依据。综合研究确定区内泥石流易发程度为轻度易发,现阶段泥石流沟发展阶段为发展期,泥石流灾害趋于相对稳定,但一旦遭遇暴雨至特大暴雨,可能会再次引发泥石流地质灾害。     

烟台市地质灾害现状及易发程度分区评价

加强自然灾害防治关系到国计民生。烟台市域面积13864.5km2,截至2020年末共有崩塌、滑坡、泥石流、岩溶塌陷、采空塌陷5类共405处地质灾害隐患点,数量约占全省总数的1/5。本文基于2020年山东省烟台市地质灾害核查数据,总结了烟台市地质灾害发育现状及灾情损失。采用地质灾害综合危险性指数法,开展了烟台市易发程度分区评价,划分出了高、中、低及不易发区。结合烟台市国民经济和社会发展规划将全市地质灾害防治区划分为重点防治区、次重点防治区和一般防治区,针对不同分区提出了具体的防治工作建议,为烟台市地质灾害防治工作提供了基础依据。     

四川省小流域泥石流危险性评价

泥石流危险性评价是泥石流防灾减灾的重要内容。本文以四川省为研究区,以DEM为数据源,通过提取水流方向,计算汇流累积量,实现四川省小流域划分。基于收集的已查明泥石流流域资料,分析了泥石流孕灾环境与成灾特点,选择流域高差、流域面积为指标,建立基于能量条件的潜势泥石流流域判识模型,对划分的小流域进行判识,识别出7798个小流域具备泥石流发生所需能量条件,面积为31.1×10⁴ km²,占四川省总面积的64.18 %。进而建立了泥石流危险性评价指标体系和可拓物元模型,开展了小流域泥石流危险性评价,划分了危险度等级,得到中度、高度、极高危险区的小流域个数分别为1946、1725和1002个,面积分别为9.1×10⁴、7.7×10⁴和3.4×10⁴ km²,中度以上危险区面积共20.2×10⁴ km2,占四川省总面积的41.67%。最后对评价结果可靠性和各等级泥石流危险区在各地市级行政区、各大流域的分布进行了分析。其结果对促进泥石流判识与危险性评价理论,区域泥石流防灾减灾与山区可持续发展等具有重要的理论和现实意义。     

Impacts of future climate change (2030-2059) on debris flow hazard: A case study in the Upper Minjiang River basin,China

An increase in extreme precipitation events due to future climate change will have a decisive influence on the formation of debris flows in earthquake-stricken areas. This paper aimed to describe the possible impacts of future climate change on debris flow hazards in the Upper Minjiang River basin in Northwest Sichuan of China, which was severely affected by the 2008 Wenchuan earthquake. The study area was divided into 1285 catchments, which were used as the basic assessment units for debris flow hazards. Based on the current understanding of the causes of debris flows, a binary logistic regression model was used to screen key factors based on local geologic, geomorphologic, soil, vegetation, and meteorological and climatic conditions. We used the weighted summation method to obtain a composite index for debris flow hazards, based on two weight allocation methods: Relative Degree Analysis and rough set theory. Our results showed that the assessment model using the rough set theory resulted in better accuracy. According to the bias corrected and downscaled daily climate model data, future annual precipitation (2030-2059) in the study area are expected to decrease, with an increasing number of heavy rainfall events. Under future climate change, areas with a high-level of debris flow hazard will be even more dangerous, and 5.9% more of the study area was categorized as having a high-level hazard. Future climate change will cause an increase in debris flow hazard levels for 128 catchments, accounting for 10.5% of the total area. In the coming few decades, attention should be paid not only to traditional areas with high-level of debris flow hazards, but also to those areas with an increased hazard level to improve their resilience to debris flow disasters.     

基于确定性系数和支持向量机的地质灾害易发性评价

确定性系数（Certainty Factor,CF）是经典的地质灾害影响因子敏感性分析方法;支持向量机（Support Vector Machine, SVM）作为机器学习的代表方法,能够综合各个影响因子的关系,对地质灾害易发性进行评价。本文以云南省怒江州泸水县为研究区,将高程、坡度、坡向、剖面曲率、距断裂的距离、距河网的距离、距路网的距离、地貌类型、岩土体类型、土地利用类型作为该区域地质灾害影响因子,依据各影响因子灾害面积比和分级面积比曲线对影响因子的状态进行分级。根据381个地质灾害隐患点,采用CF方法计算的各个影响因子的敏感性值,作为SVM的分类数据,建立基于CF-SVM的易发性评估模型,同时与单独SVM模型的评价结果进行对比分析。结果表明,CF-SVM模型得到的极高和高易发区主要分布在怒江两岸河谷地带,涵盖了89.76%的地质灾害隐患点,比单独SVM模型具有更高的成功率;利用ROC曲线和P-R曲线对两个模型进行检验,CF-SVM模型的评价精度分别达到92%和88%,均高于单独的SVM。由此说明,CF-SVM模型对地质灾害易发性评价有较高的预测价值,可以为地质灾害风险评估和管理提供依据。     

三峡库区崩滑地质灾害变形监测技术研究及应用

以三峡库区巫山-万州段为例,介绍了GPS在滑坡变形监测中的应用,并开展了InSAR和声发射技术在滑坡、危岩体变形监测应用的试验性研究。同时,根据实际需要,还研制了基于GPRS的地质灾害无线遥测系统,实践证明,该系统具有工程应用价值。     

SIMULATION AND PREDICTION OF DEBRIS FLOW USING ARTIFICIAL NEURAL NETWORK

Debris flow is one of the most destructive phenomena of natural hazards. Recently, major natural haz-ard, claiming human lives and assets, is due to debris flow in the world. Several practical methods for forecasting de-bris flow have been proposed, however, the accuracy of these methods is not high enough for practical use because of the stochastic and non-linear characteristics of debris flow. Artificial neural network has proven to be feasible and use-fill in developing models for nonlinear systems. On the other hand, predicting the future behavior based on a time se-ries of collected historical data is also an important tool in many scientific applications. In this study we present a three-layer feed-forward neural network model to forecast surge of debris flow according to the time series data collect-ed in the Jiangjia Ravine, situated in north part of Yunnan Province of China. The simulation and prediction of debris flow using the proposed approach shows this model is feasible, however, further studies are needed.     

四川凉山平川镇“7.14”泥石流灾害的气象成因

以盐源县的泥石流发生为例,研究了凉山地区出现局地强降雨引发的中型泥石流灾害的气象成因。运用天气学方法,使用NCEP再分析资料以及卫星云图和雷达回波等遥感资料,从环流形势、强对流不稳定、卫星云图和雷达回波图像演变特征,研究了台风登陆时凉山地区强降雨引起泥石流灾害形成的气象成因,并讨论了应用多普勒雷达回波对局地强降水及泥石流灾害短时临近监测和预报预警的思路。     

泰安市崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发育特征及防治对策浅析

泰安市地处鲁中山区,地形地质条件较复杂,是山东省崩塌、滑坡、泥石流地质灾害的多发区,在强降雨条件下,地质灾害频繁发生,制约了当地社会经济的发展。本文通过对研究区崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发育现状、地质灾害特征进行统计分析,从地貌特征、岩土体特征、地质构造、降水、植被、人类工程活动等方面,深入阐述了崩塌、滑坡、泥石流与地质环境条件的关系,按照"以防为主、防治结合、科学减灾"的原则,结合泰安市崩塌、滑坡、泥石流发育特点,有针对性的提出防治对策措施,为研究区防灾减灾工作提供理论和技术依据。     

Assessment of prospective hazards resulting from the 2017 earthquake at the world heritage site Jiuzhaigou Valley,Sichuan, China

On August 8, 2017, a Ms = 7.0 magnitude earthquake occurred in the Jiuzhaigou Valley, in Sichuan Province, China(N: 33.20°, E: 103.82°). Jiuzhaigou Valley is an area recognized and listed as a world heritage site by UNESCO in 1992. Data analysis and field survey were conducted on the landslide, collapse, and debris flow gully, to assess the coseismic geological hazards generated by the earthquake using an unmanned aerial vehicle(UAV), remote-sensing imaging, laser range finders, geological radars, and cameras. The results highlighted the occurrence of 13 landslides, 70 collapses, and 25 potential debris flow gullies following the earthquake. The hazards were classified on the basis of their size and the potential property loss attributable to them. Consequently, 14 large-scale hazards, 30 medium-sized hazards, and 64 small hazards accounting for 13%, 28%, and 59% of the total hazards, respectively, were identified. Based on the variation tendency of the geological hazards that ensued in areas affected by the Kanto earthquake(Japan), Chi-chi earthquake(Taiwan China), and Wenchuan earthquake(Sichuan China), the study predicts that, depending on the rain intensity cycle, the duration of geological hazard activities in the Jiuzhaigou Valley may last over ten years and will gradually decrease for the following five to ten yearsbefore returning to pre-earthquake levels. Thus,necessary monitoring and early warning systems must be implemented to ensure the safety of residents,workers and tourists during the construction of engineering projects and reopening of scenic sites to the public.     

Effects of spillway types on debris flow trajectory and scour behind a sabo dam

Debris flows are one of the common natural hazards in mountainous areas. They often cause devastating damage to the lives and property of local people. The sabo dam construction along a debris flow valley is considered to be a useful method for hazard mitigation. Previous work has concentrated on the different types of sabo dams such as close-type sabo dam, open-type sabo dam. However, little attention has been paid to the spillway structure of sabo dam. In the paper, a new type of spillway structure with lateral contraction was proposed. Debris flow patterns under four different spillway structures were investigated. The projection theory was employed to predict trajectory of debris flow out from the spillway and to estimate the incident angle and terminal velocity before it plunged into the scour hole behind the sabo dam. The results indicated that the estimated data were in good agreement with the experimental ones. The discrepancy between the estimated and experimental values of main parameters remained below 21.82% (relative error). Additionally, the effects of debris flow scales under different spillway structures were considered to study the scour law. Although the debris flow pattern and scour law behind the sabo dam under different operating conditions was analyzed in this paper, further study on the scour mechanism and the maximum scour depth estimation based on scour theory is still required in the future.