A fuzzy simulation–optimization approach for optimal estimation of groundwater availability under decision maker uncertainty

As groundwater is a slowly replenishing resource that can be depleted relatively easily, there is a growing interest in actively managing aquifer resources. Participatory, multi-stakeholder driven approaches are increasingly being adopted to plan groundwater use such that the resource is available for present as well as future needs. The state of Texas requires neighboring GCDs (local regulatory bodies) within a groundwater management area (GMA) to engage in joint planning activities and define desired future conditions (DFCs) for the aquifers they regulate. The DFCs are then used to estimate modeled available groundwater which defines how much water is available within an aquifer in a given region. The groundwater joint planning process was modeled using a combined simulation–optimization modeling scheme in this study. The response surface methodology was used to establish regional-scale aquifer stress-response relationships. In addition to average county-wide drawdown, other aquifer responses including stream-aquifer exchanges, coastal-aquifer exchanges and GMA-wide drawdown were considered to define the DFCs. A constrained linear regression was used in conjunction with a regional groundwater flow model to obtain the necessary response functions which formed the basis for a crisp optimization model whose objective was maximizing groundwater production while ensuring that the prescribed DFCs are not violated (constraints). This model was transformed into a fuzzy linear programming model to account for the fact that groundwater planners find it difficult to specify DFCs with a high degree of precision. Using linear membership functions, the decision makers’ preferences were captured using two values––a minimum preferred cut-off and the maximum allowable value for the metric. For estimating groundwater availability, the fuzzy optimization model reconciles production and maximizes the goal and the constraints representing the DFCs. The developed framework was illustrated by applying it to joint planning in Groundwater Management Area 15 in South Texas. The optimization models were highly sensitive to acceptable average drawdowns, while the coastal-aquifer interactions had secondary impacts. The fuzzy optimization model yielded lower estimates of groundwater availability in comparison to the crisp optimization scheme. The fuzzy optimization model is therefore consistent with the precautionary principle and recommended for use in the early stages of groundwater planning where incomplete understanding of the aquifer dynamics precludes specification of precise limits for the DFCs.     

Forecasting of groundwater level in hard rock region using artificial neural network

In hardrock terrain where seasonal streams are not perennial source of freshwater, increase in ground water exploitation has already resulted here in declining ground water levels and deteriorating its’ quality. The aquifer system has shown signs of depletion and quality contamination. Thus, to secure water for the future, water resource estimation and management has urgently become the need of the hour. In order to manage groundwater resources, it is vital to have a tool to predict the aquifer response for a given stress (abstraction and recharge). Artificial neural network (ANN) has surfaced as a proven and potential methodology to forecast the groundwater levels. In this paper, Feed-Forward Network based ANN model is used as a method to predict the groundwater levels. The models are trained with the inputs collected from field and then used as prediction tool for various scenarios of stress on aquifer. Such predictions help in developing better strategies for sustainable development of groundwater resources.     

Well site conditions associated with nitrate contamination in a multilayer semiconfined aquifer of Buenos Aires,Argentina

A stepwise logistic regression (LR) model was generated to evaluate the association between contamination of groundwater by nitrates with several risk factors such as soil types, farm facilities and practises, and well characteristics. The odds ratio was calculated to estimate the degree of impact that the associated variables had on the risk of contamination in a semiconfined multilayer aquifer underlying rural areas of Buenos Aires, Argentina. Duplicate farm groundwater samples (n = 160) were taken and nitrate was analyzed. Data, involving various farm factors, was gathered via two questionnaires concerning farm’s general and productive aspects, and well characteristics. Statistical tests were run between nitrates and each variable present in the survey. A 96.25% of the samples presented detectable nitrate levels, 40.91% of which had more than 45 ppm nitrates. The final LR model involved five of the variables under study: well age, soil permeability, depth of water table, location, and distance from well to contamination sources. Cross validation proved to be a good estimator of nitrate water contamination. Suspicions about how these characteristics influence groundwater contamination by nitrates were confirmed, and as these five factors represent a higher risk for this type of aquifer, their proper management may contribute to a better resource protection.     

Regional groundwater flow model for Abu Dhabi Emirate: scenario-based investigation

Despite the continuous increase in water supply from desalination plants in the Emirate of Abu Dhabi, groundwater remains the major source of fresh water satisfying domestic and agricultural demands. Groundwater has always been considered as a strategic water source towards groundwater security in the Emirate. Understanding the groundwater flow system, including identification of recharge and discharge areas, is a crucial step towards proper management of this precious source. One main tool to achieve such goal is a groundwater model development. As such, the main aim of this paper is to develop a regional groundwater flow model for the surficial aquifer in Abu Dhabi Emirate using MODFLOW. Up to our knowledge, this is the first regional numerical groundwater flow model for Abu Dhabi Emirate. After steady state and transient model calibration, several future scenarios of recharge and pumping are simulated. Results indicate that groundwater pumping remains several times higher than aquifer recharge from rainfall, which provides between 2 and 5% of total aquifer recharge. The largest contribution of recharge is due to subsurface inflow from the eastern Oman Mountains. While rainfall induced groundwater level fluctuation is absent in the western coastal region, it reaches a maximum of 0.5 m in the eastern part of the Emirate. In contrast, over the past decades, groundwater levels have declined annually by 0.5 m on average with local extremes spanning from 93 m of decline to 60 m of increase. Results also indicate that a further decrease in groundwater levels is expected in most of Emirate. At other few locations, upwelling of groundwater is expected due to a combination of reduced pumping and increased infiltration of water from nonconventional sources. Beyond results presented here, this regional groundwater model is expected to provide an effective tool to water resources managers in Abu Dhabi. It will help to accurately estimate sustainable extraction rates, assess groundwater availability, and identify pathways and velocity of groundwater flow as crucial information for identifying the best locations for artificial recharge.     

Modelling surface–groundwater interaction in the Ruataniwha basin, Hawke’s Bay, New Zealand

Modelling groundwater and surface water is important for integrated water resources management, especially when interaction between the river and the aquifer is high. A transient groundwater and surface water flow model was built for Ruataniwha basin, New Zealand. The model covers a long-time period; starting in 1990, when water resources development in the area started, to present date. For a better resolution, the simulation period was divided into 59 stress periods, and each stress period was divided to 10 time steps. The model uses data obtained from surface water, and groundwater collected over the last 20 years. Rivers and streams were divided into 28 segments and flow and streambed data at the beginning and end of each segment was used. Parameter estimation and optimisation ‘PEST’ was used for automatic calibration of hydraulic conductivity, groundwater recharge and storativity; whereas riverbed conductance was manually calibrated. Model results show that the rivers gain from the aquifer considerably more than the river losses. The cumulative groundwater abstraction over the last 20 years is approximately 210 million m³. This amount is very low compared to other water budget components; however, the effect of groundwater abstraction on storage is significant. Based on the results of this study, it was found that the loss of storage over the last 20 years is more than 66 million m³. Results also reveal that the effect of groundwater abstraction on rivers and springs flow is significant. The rivers gain from the groundwater system, and the springs flow have been decreasing.     

Delineation of groundwater recharge zones and identification of artificial recharge sites in West Medinipur district,West Bengal,using RS,GIS and MCDM techniques

Artificial recharge plays a pivotal role in the sustainable management of groundwater resources. This study proposes a methodology to delineate artificial recharge zones as well as to identify favorable artificial recharge sites using integrated remote sensing (RS), geographical information system (GIS) and multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques for augmenting groundwater resources in the West Medinipur district of West Bengal, India, which has been facing water shortage problems for the past few years. The thematic layers considered in this study are: geomorphology, geology, drainage density, slope and aquifer transmissivity, which were prepared using IRS-1D imagery and conventional data. Different themes and their corresponding features were assigned proper weights based on their relative contribution to groundwater recharge in the area, and normalized weights were computed using the Saaty’s analytic hierarchy process (AHP). These thematic layers were then integrated in the GIS environment to delineate artificial recharge zones in the study area. The artificial recharge map thus obtained divided the study area into three zones, viz., ‘suitable,’ ‘moderately suitable’ and ‘unsuitable’ according to their suitability for artificial groundwater recharge. It was found that about 46% of the study area falls under ‘suitable’ zone, whereas 43% falls under the ‘moderately suitable’ zone. The western portion of the study area was found to be unsuitable for artificial recharge. The artificial recharge zone map of the study area was found to be in agreement with the map of mean groundwater depths over the area. Furthermore, forty possible sites for artificial recharge were also identified using RS and GIS techniques. Based on the available field information, check dams are suggested as promising artificial recharge structures. The results of this study could be used to formulate an efficient groundwater management plan for the study area so as to ensure sustainable utilization of scarce groundwater resources.     

An extension to the DRASTIC model to assess groundwater vulnerability to pollution: application to the Haouz aquifer of Marrakech (Morocco)

An extension to the DRASTIC model is proposed in order to assess aquifer vulnerability to pollution. In contrast to the DRASTIC model, which considers the unsaturated and saturated zones together and computes a global intrinsic vulnerability index, the suggested approach discriminates between the aquifer vertical vulnerability (a concept related to the pollutant percolation) and the groundwater susceptibility (a concept that depends on the behaviour and uses of the groundwater). This approach is applied to the Haouz aquifer (Morocco) that supplies water to the Marrakech area. This aquifer is widely overexploited and there is evidence that the groundwater quality is threatened by various sources of pollution. Evaluation of the vertical vulnerability indicates that the aquifer mainly presents a moderate-to-weak vertical vulnerability. The zones potentially most favourable to pollutant percolation are mainly located in Central Haouz, along or near the surface wadis. The aquifer susceptibility is high in places located near the N’Fis, Baaja and Issil wadis. Everywhere else, low-to-moderate susceptibility is observed. This new approach therefore enables areas of vertical vulnerability and areas of susceptibility to be delineated separately. As a result, it constitutes a valuable decision-making tool for optimising the management of aquifer water resources and land-use planning.     

Supervised committee fuzzy logic model to assess groundwater intrinsic vulnerability in multiple aquifer systems

Groundwater vulnerability modeling is an alternative approach to evaluate groundwater contamination especially in areas affected by intensive anthropogenic activities. However, the DRASTIC model as a well-known method to assess groundwater vulnerability suffers from the inherent uncertainty associated with its seven essential parameters. In this study, three different fuzzy logic (FL) models (Sugeno fuzzy logic, Mamdani fuzzy logic, and Larsen fuzzy logic) are adopted to improve the DRASTIC system to be more realistic. The vulnerability map of groundwater from multiple aquifer systems (i.e., karstic, alluvium, and complex) in Basara basin, Iraq, was created using the FL models. Validation of the FL models results using NO₃-N concentration obtained from wells and springs of the study area indicating that all of the three FL models are applicable for improving the DRASTIC model. However, each of the FL models has its own advantages for groundwater vulnerability estimation in different types of aquifer systems in the Basara basin. Therefore, this study proposes the supervised committee fuzzy logic (SCFL) as a multimodel method to combine the advantages of individual FL models. The SCFL method confirms that no water well with high NO₃-N levels would be classified as low risk and vice versa. The study suggests that this approach has provided a convenient estimation of pollution risk in the study area and therefore, a more accurate prediction of the intrinsic vulnerability to pollution in the multiple aquifer system can be achieved through SCFL method.     

Hydrochemical changes in a small tropical island’s aquifer: Manukan Island, Sabah, Malaysia

Small islands groundwater are often exposed to heavy pumpings as a result of high demand for freshwater consumption. Intensive exploitation of groundwater from Manukan Island’s aquifer has disturbed the natural equilibrium between fresh and saline water, and has resulted increase the groundwater salinity and leap to the hydrochemical complexities of freshwater–seawater contact. An attempt was made to identify the hydrochemical processes that accompany current intrusion of seawater using ionic changes and saturation indices. It was observed that the mixing between freshwater–seawater created diversity in geochemical processes of the Manukan Island’s aquifer and altered the freshwater and seawater mixture away from the theoretical composition line. This explained the most visible processes taking place during the displacement.     

Optimization of water resources management using SWOT analysis: the case of Zakynthos Island, Ionian Sea, Greece

Zakynthos, an island of 408 km² in the Ionian Sea, is completely dependent on its groundwater resources for fulfilling the demands of the water supplies. The use of groundwater resources has become particularly intensive during the last decades because of the intense urbanization, the tourist development and the irrigated land expansion that took place. The main aquifers are developed in limestones (karstic), sandstones of neogene deposits (confined) and alluvial deposits (phreatic). This paper focuses on the assessment of their hydrogeological characteristics and the groundwater quality. For this investigation, groundwater level measurements, drilling data, pumping tests and chemical analyses of groundwater samples were used. The average annual consumption that is abstracted from the aquifer systems, is 4.9 × 10⁶ m³ year⁻¹. The exploitable groundwater reserves were estimated to be 3.3 × 10⁶ m³ year⁻¹. In the last decades, the total abstractions exceed the natural recharge, due to the tourist development; therefore the aquifer systems are not used safely. The results of chemical analyses showed a deterioration of the groundwater quality. According to the analyses the shallow alluvial aquifer and the confined aquifer are polluted by nitrates at concentrations in excess of 25 mg L⁻¹. High sulphate concentrations might be related to the dissolution of gypsum. Seawater intrusion phenomena are recorded in coastal parts of aquifer systems. The increased Cl⁻ concentrations in karstic aquifer indicate signs of overexploitation. Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats (SWOT) analysis was applied in order to evaluate the SWOT of the groundwater resources. Moreover, some recommendations are made to assist the rational management that aim at improving the sustainability of the groundwater resources of Zakynthos Island.     

Dual impact on the groundwater aquifer in the Kazan Plain (Ankara, Turkey): sand–gravel mining and over-abstraction

This study explains the impact of sand–gravel mining and over-abstraction, and the response of the groundwater system in the Kazan Plain, Turkey. The plain used to be known for its fresh groundwater potential, valuable agricultural lands and natural beauty until the 1980s. According to the estimation in 1975, there was 15.5 million m³ annual useable freshwater in the Quaternary sand–gravel aquifer. Groundwater level ranged between 0 and 5 m from the surface of the plain in the 1970s. Because of the large and deep excavations by the sand–gravel pits during the past 25–30 years, the aquifer has thinned and removed entirely in some places. In addition, over-abstraction has accelerated the decline of the groundwater level, particularly in the middle and the upper part of the plain in recent years. As of 2009, about 12% of the total volume of the aquifer area removed by the pits and groundwater table has been reduced to between 5 and 20 m. The decline of the water table reaches 15–20 m in the regions where over-abstraction has taken place. To reduce the hazards to the groundwater system, the sand–gravel pits have to be banned immediately, a reclamation project applied and abstraction must be reduced.     

The use of geoprocessing to assess vulnerability on the east coast aquifers of Rio de Janeiro State,Brazil

The east coast of Rio de Janeiro State, Brazil, shows a worrying overlap between areas with intrinsic groundwater vulnerability and the most significant urban expansion zones. It experienced a rapid population growth in recent years, mainly due to the tourism industry, resulting in a significant pressure on drinking groundwater resources. In this regard, development and use of techniques to control and protect areas susceptible to contamination is crucial. The elaboration of aquifer vulnerability maps is thus extremely helpful to support water resources management. The aim of the work is to present the methodological approach in the use of Geoprocessing techniques to obtain a suitable groundwater vulnerability model in Rio de Janeiro east coast. Considering the existing problems and the current land use and characteristics of the study region, it is clear that the most vulnerable areas (that is, “extreme” and “very high” vulnerability areas), coincide with the most significant zones of urban occupation, corresponding to 11% of the total study area, demanding adoption of urgent measures in the near future. Geoprocessing tools and remote sensing for characterization of Rio de Janeiro’s east coast aquifer vulnerability gave good results, representing a satisfactory method for management actions at low cost.     

Combined optimization of a wind farm and a well field for wind-enabled groundwater production

Energy requirements constitute a significant cost in groundwater production and can also add to a large carbon footprint when fossil fuels are used for power. Wind-enabled water production is advantageous as it minimizes air pollution impacts associated with groundwater production and relies on a renewable resource. Also, as groundwater extraction represents a deferrable load (i.e., it can be carried out when energy demands within an area are low), it provides a convenient way to overcome the intermittency issue associated with wind power production. Multiple turbine wind farms are needed to generate large quantities of power needed for large-scale groundwater production. Turbines must be optimally located in these farms to ensure proper propagation of kinetic energy throughout the system. By the same token, well placement must reconcile the competing objectives of minimizing interferences between production wells while ensuring the drawdowns at the property boundary are within acceptable limits. A combined simulation–optimization based model is developed in this study to optimize the combined wind energy and water production systems. The wind farm layout optimization model is solved using a re-sampling strategy, while the well field configuration is obtained using the simulated annealing technique. The utility of the developed model is to study wind-enabled water production in San Patricio County, TX. Sensitivity analysis indicated that identifying optimal placement of turbines is vital to extract maximum wind power. The variability of the wind speeds has a critical impact on the amount of water that can be produced. Innovative technologies such as variable flow pumping devices and aquifer storage recovery must be used to smooth out wind variability. While total groundwater extraction is less sensitive to uncertainty in hydrogeological parameters, improper estimation of aquifer transmissivity and storage characteristics can affect the feasibility of wind-driven groundwater production.     

Recharge rate estimation in the Mountain karst aquifer system of Figeh spring, Syria

Figeh watershed spring is one of the important groundwater aquifer, which is considered a major source for drinking waters of Damascus city and countryside. The origin identification and recharge estimates of groundwater are significant components of sustainable groundwater development in this Mountain karst aquifer of Figeh spring. During the period 2001–2009, monthly groundwater and precipitation samples were taken and the isotopic compositions of δ¹⁸O, δ²H, and chloride contents were analyzed to identify groundwater origins and to estimate recharge rates. The δ¹⁸O, δ²H of the groundwater show that the groundwater recharge is of meteoric origin. The chloride mass balance (CMB) method was used to quantify recharge rates of groundwater in the Mountain karst aquifer of Figeh spring. The recharge rate varies from 192 to 826 mm/year, which corresponds to 43 and 67% of the total annual rainfall. Recharge rates estimated by CMB were compared with values obtained from other methods and were found to be in good agreement. This study can be used to develop effective programs for groundwater management and development.     

Combination of a geographical information system and remote sensing data to map groundwater recharge potential in arid to semi-arid areas: the Haouz Plain,Morocco

Arid to semi-arid regions are characterized by low levels of surface water and low annual precipitation (generally <350 mm/year). In such areas, groundwater must be used to meet all the needs of the population for water. As a consequence, careful management is required to ensure the sustainability of this scarce resource in response to the demands of urban centers, industry, agriculture, and tourism. The concept of the aquifer recharge rate is particularly useful in the quantification of these groundwater resources and can be used to form the basis of a decision support system. This study determined the potential recharge rate in the Haouz aquifer using a multi-criteria analysis that included both the major and minor factors influencing the rate of infiltration of water into the aquifer. The analysis was based on the use of a geographical information system supported by remote sensing techniques to develop thematic data layers. These layers were then used to describe the spatial variation of the factors influencing the recharge rate of the aquifer and were subsequently integrated and analyzed to derive the spatial distribution of the potential recharge. This approach was used to classify the Haouz Plain (Morocco) into three different zones with respect to the recharge rate, with recharge rates ranging from 3.5 to 18.2 %.     

Interpretation of pumping test data from large diameter wells on an oceanic island

 Estimation of aquifer parameters is vital for the assessment of groundwater potential and groundwater flow regime. On an oceanic island where fresh water lens is fragile and sensitive to various stresses, it is even more essential that in order to assess the potential of fresh water lens and the effect of various stresses on the fresh groundwater regime the parameters should be representative to the field hydrogeological set up. Pumping tests conducted on existing large diameter wells on an oceanic island have been analyzed. A finite difference method has been used to take into account the well storage, partial penetration and upconing effect into the aquifer. Forward modeling has been carried out to estimate aquifer parameters from the pumping test data. Field examples are described. Received: 15 June 1998 · Accepted: 25 August 1998     

The hydro geochemical characterization of ground waters in Tunisian Chott’s region.

Tunisian Chott’s region is one of the most productive artesian basins in Tunisia. It is located in the southwestern part of the country, and its groundwater resources are developed for water supply and irrigation. The chemical composition of the water is strongly influenced by the interaction with the basinal sediments and by hydrologic characteristics such as the flow pattern and time of residence. The system is composed of an upper unconfined “Plio-Quaternary” aquifer with a varying thickness of 20–200 m, an intermediate confined/unconfined “Complex Terminal” aquifer about 100 m in thickness and a deeper “Continental Intercalaire” aquifer about 150 m in thickness separated by thick clay and marl layers. The dissolution of evaporites and carbonates explains part of the contained Na⁺, Ca²⁺, Mg²⁺, K⁺, SO₄²⁻ and Cl^-, but other processes, such carbonate precipitation, also contributes to the water composition. The stable isotope composition of waters establishes that the deep groundwater (depleted as compared to present corresponding local rainfall) is ancient water recharged probably during the late Pleistocene and the early Holocene periods. The relatively recent water in the Plio-Quaternary aquifer is composed of mixed waters resulting presumably from upward leakage from the deeper groundwater.     

Review: groundwater management practices, challenges, and innovations in the High Plains aquifer, USA—lessons and recommended actions

The US High Plains aquifer, one of the largest freshwater aquifer systems in the world, continues to decline, threatening the long-term viability of the region’s irrigation-based economy. The eight High Plains States take different approaches to the development and management of the aquifer based on each state’s body of water laws that abide by different legal doctrines, on which Federal laws are superposed, thus creating difficulties in integrated regional water-management efforts. Although accumulating hydrologic stresses and competing demands on groundwater resources are making groundwater management increasingly complex, they are also leading to innovative management approaches, which are highlighted in this paper as good examples for emulation in managing groundwater resources. It is concluded that the fragmented and piecemeal institutional arrangements for managing the supplies and quality of water are inadequate to meet the water challenges of the future. A number of recommendations for enhancing the sustainability of the aquifer are presented, including the formation of an interstate groundwater commission for the High Plains aquifer along the lines of the Delaware and Susquehanna River Basins Commissions in the US. Finally, some lessons on groundwater management that other countries can learn from the US experience are outlined.     

Petroleum pollution and evolution of water quality in the Malian River Basin of the Longdong Loess Plateau,Northwestern China

The possible sources of water pollution and the evolution of water quality in the Malian River Basin of China’s Longdong Loess Plateau were studied based on chemical analysis. Concentrations of major chemicals in the river were related to the distance downstream from the source of the river and the surface water in the upstream had good quality, while the river from Southern Huanxian County to Qingcheng County was seriously polluted. Groundwater quality was generally good in the phreatic aquifer beneath the loess plateau, with bicarbonate and calcium dominant, but salinity was high and petroleum pollution was present in many parts of the study area. Both surface water and groundwater quality have declined rapidly during the past 20 years, leading to much of the water unsafe to drink and unsuitable for use in irrigation. The substances released into the water included industrial wastes, domestic sewage, organic and inorganic fertilizers, and pesticides, as well as a range of other substances that are harmful to humans. However, petroleum contamination caused by the oil industry in the Longdong oilfield is the largest source of pollution that infiltrates surface water and groundwater, leading to deterioration of water quality. It is recommended that oilfield management must be improved and the petroleum products and wastes must be disposed carefully to reduce the risk of further spills and pollution.     

Comparison of FFNN and ANFIS models for estimating groundwater level

Prediction of water level is an important task for groundwater planning and management when the water balance consistently tends toward negative values. In Maheshwaram watershed situated in the Ranga Reddy District of Andhra Pradesh, groundwater is overexploited, and groundwater resources management requires complete understanding of the dynamic nature of groundwater flow. Yet, the dynamic nature of groundwater flow is continually changing in response to human and climatic stresses, and the groundwater system is too intricate, involving many nonlinear and uncertain factors. Artificial neural network (ANN) models are introduced into groundwater science as a powerful, flexible, statistical modeling technique to address complex pattern recognition problems. This study presents the comparison of two methods, i.e., feed-forward neural network (FFNN) trained with Levenberg–Marquardt (LM) algorithm compared with a fuzzy logic adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) model for better accuracy of the estimation of the groundwater levels of the Maheshwaram watershed. The statistical indices used in the analysis were the root mean square error (RMSE), regression coefficient (R ²) and error variation (EV).The results show that FFNN-LM and ANFIS models provide better accuracy (RMSE = 4.45 and 4.94, respectively, R ² is 93% for both models) for estimating groundwater levels well in advance for the above location.