利用NOAA卫星资料反演最高地表温度

建立了以华北平原日最高地表温度实测值为非独立变量，ＡＶＨＲＲ的第４、３、５通道亮度温度为独立变量的线性回归方程，以及ＡＶＨＲＲ第４通道亮度温度等为独立变量的线性回归方程。经分析认为，后者是估算我国北方地区冬季晴空无冰雪覆盖情况下最高地表温度较合适的回归方程。     

GMS多通道资料综合判别可降水云

利用１９９５年７～１０月影响山东的１２次降水天气过程３７０个时次的ＧＭＳ－５卫星云图,以及对应时次全省９５个雨量观测站自记降水资料,统计分析了静止气象卫星各通道资料与降水概率的关系。探讨了静止气象卫星云图综合识别可降水云的方法。     

GMS卫星资料估算地表旬太阳辐射

GMS－5静止气象卫星较宽的可见光波段，为估算到达地表的太阳辐射提供了极好的信息源。利用GMS－5可见光通道资料，分析估计太阳辐射的可行性，并给出了相应的卫星资料处理方法。利用逐时观测资料和济南日射观测站太阳总辐射小时辐照总量实测资料，建立了可见光反照率与小时辐照总量的统计关系，探讨了旬太阳辐射的估算模型。估算结果与日射站实测结果比较，旬辐射估计量的均方误差为7．7MJ.m^-1，平均相对误差为3．4％。     

GMS卫星遥感资料监测暴雨技术

利用时空分辨率较高的GMS－5红外、可见光两通道1：1原始图像资料，结合常规雨量观测资料，通过对逐时降水率、日降水量的估计，讨论了卫星遥感监测暴雨的技术方法，建立了山东省暴雨遥感监测模型。实例分析表明，暴雨监测图像产品直观清晰，能较准确地监测暴雨发生的区域和面积，实际应用取得较好的效果。     

FY-3B/VIRR海表温度算法改进及精度评估

该文介绍了卫星观测海表温度 (SST) 算法的发展历程,给出了所用SST算法的回归模型,并在FY-3B/VIRR业务SST算法的基础上进行了改进。基于NOAA-19/AVHRR匹配数据集,进行多算法建模分析及精度评估,白天最优算法为非线性SST (NL) 算法,夜间最优算法为三通道SST (TC) 算法,最优算法的确定与NESDIS/STAR一致。建立2012年8月—2013年3月FY-3B/VIRR匹配数据集,并在此基础上进行多算法回归建模及精度评估,白天和夜间的最优均为NL算法,分析发现夜间TC算法采用匹配数据集版本2(MDB_V2) 时,3.7 μm通道存在类似百叶窗的条带现象。以2012年10—12月FY-3B/VIRR匹配数据集计算回归系数,以2013年1—3月独立样本进行精度评估,与浮标SST相比,NL算法白天和夜间的均方根误差分别为0.41℃和0.43℃。与日平均最优插值海温 (OISST) 相比,NL算法白天和夜间的均方根误差分别为1.45℃和1.5℃; 选择与OISST偏差在2℃以内的样本,NL算法白天和夜间均方根误差分别为0.82℃和0.84℃。     

用GMS—5气象卫星资料遥感监测白天雾的研究

用日本GMS－5静止气象卫星的可见光通道和长波红外通道的资料，采用多通道合成和图像增强技术生成云雾彩色图像，分析了云雾的纹理特征、运动规律和消散规律，探讨了白天雾和低层云的遥感监测和识别方法，对沪宁高速公路沿线大雾进行了实时监测。     

用GMS卫星资料估算西北区东部雨强等级

采用ＧＭＳ－４卫星的红外和可见光展宽云图资料，取０－４０°Ｎ、１００－１１２°Ｅ范围估算逐时降水率场。针对青藏高原东北边坡复杂地形，将卫星信息与其相匹配的数字化地形模型结合，取陕、甘、宁三省（区）和青海省东部１９０站的１小时雨量资料。先后采用多次二级判别、多元线性回归和多级逐步判别等统计模型，通过反复试验，最后选定多级逐步判别方案，制作反演雨强等级场的自动处理显示系统。该系统在３８６微机上通过ＶＧＡ卡实现假彩色图像显示，满足现时预报需要。     

基于MODIS数据的乌昌地区地表温度反演

陆地表面温度是监测地球资源环境变化的重要指标之一,对于区域干旱预报、作物产量估算、数值天气预报等的研究都有重要意义。本文阐述了MODIS资料反演地表温度的原理,建立了基于MODIS资料、地理信息数据和地面气象站观测资料反演地表温度的统计模型。     

全球热带海表温度异常的主振荡型分析

用主振荡型分析方法对全球热带海表温度异常进行了研究,得到了传播型和驻波型的几种曲型模态,指出ＥｌＮｉｎｏ／ＬａＮｉｎａ现象与这几种典型模态的组合有关,最显著的两个典型模态周期分别为准４ａ和２ａ,周期相近的振荡还具有不同的空间型态,热带印度洋与太平洋４个Ｎｉｎｏ海区ＳＳＴＡ呈同位相的关系。     

用GMS卫星资料研究我国东南部夏季短波云辐射强迫

利用中分辨率辐射计算模式（MODTRAN3）、站点的温压湿探空资料和美国标准大气的气溶胶、臭氧和微量气体参数，计算出无云情况下的地面总辐射，再与实测地面总辐射结合得出云对太阳的辐射强迫。同时利用GMS卫星资料反演出云辐射参数——反照率和亮温，分析了短波云辐射强迫和云辐射参数的关系，建立了两者的回归模式，用于估算地面资料缺少地区的短波云辐射强迫。     

由GMS卫星资料获取我国夏季地表辐射收支

地表辐射收支是一个重要的基本辐射参数，本文导得卫星可见光和红外波段测值与地表辐射收支的基本关系，据此利用GMS静止气象卫星可见光和红外通道数值化资料和地面辐射收支观测资料，建立了几个由卫星资料估计地面辐射收支的模式，选择效果最佳的一种模式，通过内插方法求取全国辐射收支分布，回归效果与实测结果比较表明，方法有实际应用价值。     

Evaluation and Preprocess of Chinese Fengyun-3A Sea Surface Temperature Experimental Product for Data Assimilation

Validated satellite-derived sea surface temperatures (SSTs) are widely used for climate monitoring and ocean data assimilation systems. In this study, the Fengyun-3A (FY-3A) SST experimental product is evaluated using Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)-merged and in situ SSTs. A comparison of AVHRR-merged SSTs reveals a negative bias of more than 2K in FY-3A SSTs in most of the tropical Pacific and low-latitude Indian and Atlantic Oceans. The error variance of FY-3A SSTs is estimated using three-way error analysis. FY-3A SSTs show regional error variance in global oceans with a maximum error variance of 2.2 K in the Pacific Ocean. In addition, a significant seasonal variation of error variance is present in FY-3A SSTs, which indicates that the quality of FY-3A SST could be improved by adjusting the parameters in the SST retrieval algorithm and by applying regional and seasonal algorithms, particularly in key areas such as the tropical Pacific Ocean. An objective analysis method is used to merge FY-3A SSTs with the drifter buoy data. The errors of FY-3A SSTs are decreased to-0.45K comparing with SST observations from GTSPP.     

数字卫星云图估算面雨量的应用试验

使用云分类降水率估计的方法，有静止气象卫星数字云图进行面雨量估算。对１９９３年８月４日华北南部一次降水过程的实测雨量与估算结果的对比分析表明，这种估算方法对雨区的差别有相当高的精度，对雨量的估计有一定的参考价值。     

20年时间序列海表温度数据集反演和评价

海表温度是研究海洋表面海气相互作用的一个至关重要的物理参数。为建立长时间序列海表温度数据集,在海表温度反演模型建立过程中还需要考虑卫星之间的差异、卫星仪器随时间的衰减、所采用反演算法模型建立过程中人的主观因素的影响等。为此,针对1989—2008年间NOAA/AVHRR数据特点,发展了统一的海表温度反演模型,并生成了20年时间序列海表温度数据集,空间分辨率达到1km。利用船舶浮标资料和OISST数据对该数据集进行了验证,验证结果表明该数据集均方根误差在1℃左右。最后针对1997/1998年厄尔尼诺事件,用反演的海表温度分析了西太平洋暖池区海表温度距平对这次事件的响应。     

ENSO 循环过程中逐月海温异常的合成分析

文章基于UK和MIT 1990年整编的12年（1968～1977年和1982～1983年）逐月5°×5°经纬网格点的海温（SST）距平资料,对其间发生的4次El Nino事件和3次La Nina事件作了逐月全球SST异常分布的合成分析。合成结果表明：在El Nino事件的形成阶段,赤道中太平洋存在明显的东传暖性低频扰动;而在La Nina事件的形成阶段,南北美沿岸有稳定增强的冷中心向西发展。     

基于L波段雷达探空资料的重庆市区低空逆温特征分析

利用重庆市沙坪坝气象站2005- 2009年L波段雷达探空观测资料,研究重庆市区接地逆温和悬浮逆温的出现频率、逆温厚度、垂直分布特征和强度状况,对本地低空大气的逆温分布特征进行了详细分析.分析结果表明:重庆市区低空大气全年均不同程度存在逆温层,低空逆温出现频率为93％,夏季发生的频率最高,冬季最低;逆温强度总体不大,07:00 和19:00接地逆温多年平均强度分别为0.53℃/hm和0.6℃/hm,为同时段悬浮逆温强度的2倍;从垂直分布特征来看,低空逆温呈现厚度薄且层次多的特点,层次最多时达6层.     

ENSO and Sea Surface Temperature Anomalies in Association with Canadian Wheat Yield Variability

Interannual variations of spring wheat yields in Canadian agricultural regions are analyzed, together with the associated sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the northern hemisphere tropics and extratropics, from 1961 to 2015. The cubic trend is calculated and used to represent the trend related to advances in agricultural technology over this time period. The correlations between Canadian wheat yields at regional scales and the tropical El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) variability are not robust at any stage of the evolution of ENSO. Based on the power spectrum and cross-spectrum analysis, the most prominent yield variance is found in the Canadian Prairies, with a significant power peak of 4.5 years but does not co-vary significantly with interannual ENSO variability. ENSO weakly affects temperature and precipitation anomalies in the Canadian Prairie Region in summer—two important agroclimatic conditions for crop growth—and hence insignificantly impacts wheat yields. This indicates that there would be little benefit to including tropical ENSO indices in the operational wheat yield forecasting system. For Canadian wheat yield forecasting, attention should be paid to the preceding winter and spring SST anomalies in the northern extratropics. The SST anomalies associated with yields in the Canadian Prairie region and Central Region are generally stronger than those associated with yields in the Canadian Pacific Coast Region and eastern Maritime Region. In association with the Prairie Region and Central Region yields, SST shows pronounced anomalies in the mid-high latitudes of the North Pacific from winter to summer. The non-linearity of the SST anomalies associated with the Canadian yields is also clearly evident. Stronger (weaker) SST anomalies in the extratropical North Pacific correspond to low wheat yields in the Prairie (Central) Region, while weaker (stronger) SST anomalies correspond to high yields in the Prairie (Central) Region.     

Potential Predictability of Sea Surface Temperature in a Coupled Ocean--Atmosphere GCM

Using the Flexible Global Ocean--Atmosphere--Land System model (FGOALS) version g1.11, a group of seasonal hindcasting experiments were carried out. In order to investigate the potential predictability of sea surface temperature (SST), singular value decomposition (SVD) analyses were applied to extract dominant coupled modes between observed and predicated SST from the hindcasting experiments in this study. The fields discussed are sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical Pacific basin (20^oS--20^oN, 120^oE--80^oW), respectively starting in four seasons from 1982 to 2005. On the basis of SVD analysis, the simulated pattern was replaced with the corresponding observed pattern to reconstruct SST anomaly fields to improve the ability of the simulation. The predictive skill, anomaly correlation coefficients (ACC), after systematic error correction using the first five modes was regarded as potential predictability. Results showed that: 1) the statistical postprocessing approach was effective for systematic error correction; 2) model error sources mainly arose from mode 2 extracted from the SVD analysis---that is, during the transition phase of ENSO, the model encountered the spring predictability barrier; and 3) potential predictability (upper limits of predictability) could be high over most of the tropical Pacific basin, including the tropical western Pacific and an extra 10-degrees region of the mid and eastern Pacific.