全球海气耦合模式中热盐环流对大气强迫的响应

大气环流与热盐环流(THC)变化之间的因果关系,是海气相互作用研究领域的一个悬而未决的问题。作者利用一个全球海气耦合模式-挪威卑尔根气候模式(BCM)的300a积分结果,讨论了冬季北大西洋涛动(NAO)对海洋的强迫与热盐环流的年际调整之间的关系。结果发现,在NAO活动的正位相,伴随着中纬度西风带的加强,北大西洋拉布拉多海热通量损失剧增,同时海表盐度出现正距平,二者的共同作用,令表层海水变沉、密度增大,海洋层结出现不稳定,导致深对流发生。在NAO活动达到最强劲状态之后3个月,拉布拉多海对流也达到最深。北大西洋热盐环流强度变化对拉布拉多海对流活动的响应,要滞后3a左右。而在年际尺度上,大西洋的极向热输送变化和热盐环流的变化则基本是同步的。对流活动对大气存在明显的反馈作用。在对流活动深度达到最大之后1～4个月,对流热释放令拉布拉多海表层气温明显升高。     

北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟II：热带太平洋强迫

利用一个全球海气耦合模式(BCM),结合观测资料,讨论了热带太平洋强迫对北大西洋年际气候变率的影响。研究表明,BCM能够相对合理地模拟赤道太平洋的年际变率模态及相应的海温距平型和大气遥相关型,尽管其准3年的振荡周期过于规则。来自数值模式和观测上的证据都表明,北大西洋冬季海温的主导性变率模态,即自北而南出现的“- -”的海温距平型,受到来自热带太平洋强迫的显著影响,其正位相与赤道中东太平洋冷事件相对应。换言之,赤道太平洋暖事件的发生,在太平洋-北美沿岸激发出PNA遥相关型,进而通过在北大西洋产生类似NAO负位相的气压距平型,削弱本来与NAO正位相直接联系的三核型海温距平。北大西洋三核型海温距平对热带太平洋强迫的响应,要滞后2—3个月的时间。     

北大西洋年际变率的海气耦合模式模拟Ⅱ:热带太平洋强迫

利用一个全球海气耦合模式(BCM),结合观测资料,讨论了热带太平洋强迫对北大西洋年际气候变率的影响.研究表明,BCM能够相对合理地模拟赤道太平洋的年际变率模态及相应的海温距平型和大气遥相关型,尽管其准3年的振荡周期过于规则.来自数值模式和观测上的证据都表明,北大西洋冬季海温的主导性变率模态,即自北而南出现的"-+-"的海温距平型,受到来自热带太平洋强迫的显著影响,其正位相与赤道中东太平洋冷事件相对应.换言之,赤道太平洋暖事件的发生,在太平洋-北美沿岸激发出PNA遥相关型,进而通过在北大西洋产生类似NAO负位相的气压距平型,削弱本来与NAO正位相直接联系的三核型海温距平.北大西洋三核型海温距平对热带太平洋强迫的响应,要滞后2-3个月的时间.     

北大西洋海表面温度锋与大西洋风暴路径及大气大尺度异常的关系研究

运用NCEP、Had ISST再分析资料,北大西洋涛动(NAO)月指数序列,探讨了海表面温度(SST)锋的时空变化特征,揭示了北大西洋SST锋的主要气候变率及其与北大西洋风暴轴和大气大尺度环流异常的关系。研究表明,剔除季节循环后的SST锋显示其最主要变率为锋区的向南/北摆动,其对应的风暴轴发生相应的西南/东北移动,并同时在北大西洋上空对应一个跨海盆的位势高度负/正异常。这种环流异常可引起高纬度海平面气压(SLP)的反气旋/气旋式环流,这有利于增强海表面风对大洋副极地环流的负/正涡度异常输入,进一步减弱/加强了高纬度上层冷水向SST锋区的输送。北大西洋SST锋的另一主要模态为锋区在南北方向的分支和合并。当SST锋异常在40°N~45°N以单支形式加强时,对流层位势高度场和SLP南北梯度增大,对应NAO正位相,此时风暴轴也为单支型;同时SLP异常场促使冰岛附近具有气旋式风应力异常,亚速尔地区具有反气旋式风应力异常,导致副极地环流和副热带环流均加强,增加高纬度冷水和低纬度暖水在锋区的输入,从而进一步增强40°N~45°N附近的SST锋区。当SST锋异常在40°N~45°N纬带南北发生分支时,风暴轴也同时出现北强南弱的南北分支,此时对应了负位相NAO,来自北南的冷暖水输送减弱,SST锋也发生减弱分支。此外,位于大洋内区的SST锋东端也存在一个偶极子型的模态,尽管其解释方差相对较小,但仍与偏东北的NAO型具有显著相关。谱分析表明,北大西洋SST锋与风暴轴具有1~3年和年代际共振,与中高纬大尺度环流也存在周期1~3年的共变信号,其中准一年共变信号体现了SST锋和NAO之间的对应关系。进一步诊断分析表明,SST锋上空的近表层大气斜压性和经向温度梯度随着SST锋的增强而增强,经向热通量的向北输送导致涡动有效位能的增加;海洋的非绝热加热产生更强的垂直热量通量,这有利于涡动有效位能释放成为涡动动能,从而表现为该区域的风暴轴加强,并进一步影响风暴轴中的天气尺度扰动与下游大尺度环流异常的相互作用过程。     

中纬度北太平洋依赖于ENSO事件及独立于ENSO事件的变率特征:观测事实与海气耦合模式模拟

观测事实显示,在E1 Ni(?)o发生期间,伴随着赤道中东太平洋的增暖,中纬度北大平洋中部表层海温（SST）常出现冷距平,而北美大陆西海岸SST则出现暖距平。借助观测资料分析和海气耦合模式模拟两种手段,检验了北太平洋对ENSO事件的上述响应。观测证据和数值模拟都支持有关学者提出的“大气桥”概念,即大气对赤道中东太平洋SST异常增暖的响应,随后强迫中纬度北太平洋,并导致那里SST的变冷,从而起到了连接热带和热带外特别是中纬度北太平洋的“桥梁”的作用。关于其机制,本文认为主要是海洋对大气强迫的动力响应导致那里的SST变冷,尽管潜热通量的贡献也很显著。至少模式结果证明短波辐射、长波辐射和感热通量的贡献都是次要的。进一步的分析揭示,北太平洋存在着线性独立于ENSO事件的所谓“北太平洋模态”,在空间型上,它和线性地依赖于ENSO事件的模态非常相近,即它们的纬向结构都呈现出扁平的“双极”型,只是彼此间SST距平极大值的中心位置不同。模拟结果表明,北太平洋模态与大气的耦合作用,主要是通过海气热通量交换实现的,其中短波辐射和长波辐射的作用居主导地位,而潜热通量的贡献则基本可以忽略。     

北太平洋冬季年代际尺度海气相互作用

为了更深了解北太平洋年代际尺度海气相互作用,本文通过对湍流热通量和SST的相关关系进行了研究。当热通量和SSTA正相关时,代表海洋影响大气,而当二者相关系数为负时,表示大气强迫海洋。将整个北太平洋SSTA求平均和把北太平洋分成3个区域求SSTA平均,分别对热通量和SST的关系进行研究。结果表明,北太平洋冬季年代际尺度上的海气相互作用主要表现为海洋强迫大气,而在日本附近海域以及北太平洋中东部,海洋对大气的强迫作用最明显,因此这两个区域是北太平洋冬季年代际尺度上海气相互作用的关键区。     

简化的中纬度冬季环流耦合模式中的大尺度海气相互作用

用包括有天气尺度大气变率、海温（ＳＳＴ）平流和海气热交换的简化耦合模式的模拟结果研究了中纬度海气相互作用问题。研究发现将模式ＳＳＴ的强暖型事件合成对显示海洋强迫大气迹象是有用的。还提供了海洋影响大气的其他证据，即海洋平流似乎通过反馈效应增强了模式ＳＳＴ异常的持续性。     

西风异常及其与北太平洋海表温度准10a周期变率的联系

用中纬度各经度上最小位势高度梯度（绝对值最大）的纬度位置作为西风指数,能反映出西风异常的位置和强弱信息,能较好地代表中纬度环流变率。利用54 a的再分析资料研究了北太平洋准10年周期时间尺度的海气耦合的时空特征,并简要分析了前期西风异常与中国夏季降水的关系。结果表明：海洋上准10 a周期时间尺度的SST异常表现为北太平洋中西部与北美西岸SST异常的反相变化,大气异常表现为中纬度西风带上三槽三脊的纬向波列分布,并且与北极涛动有关;中纬度准10 a周期的年代际海气相互作用由大气主导,当大气超前SST一个月时,海气耦合相关最强;中纬度年代际海气相互作用的实质在1990年代末发生了根本性的转变,1990年代末以来由于极区和北太平洋上的大气环流异常变化,使阿留申低压和太平洋高压减弱,中纬度北太平洋上的西风减弱、海表温度升高;本文给出的西风异常指数,能较好地指示中国夏季降水的变化,前期冬春季的西风异常对后期中国夏季降水有明显的影响。     

印度洋海气相互作用对热带夏季大气环流气候态的影响

利用分辨率较高的SINTEX-F(Scale INTeraction EXperiment-FRCGC) 海气耦合模式, 进行多组长时间积分模拟和理想试验, 分析研究热带印度洋海气耦合对夏季大气环流气候态的影响。主要结果有: (1) 热带印度洋海气相互作用使热带东印度洋产生明显的东风变化, 使热带中西太平洋赤道北部产生气旋性切变变化。 (2) 印度洋海气相互作用对大气环流气候态的影响绝大部分由于大气对海气相互作用的响应存在年际变化正负距平不对称性造成, 这种年际变化不对称性包括正偶极子与负偶极子的不对称、 海盆宽度正异常与海盆宽度负异常的不对称。 (3) 年际和季节内两种时间尺度海气相互作用对印度洋关键区大气环流平均态都有影响, 约各占60%、 40%; 季节内尺度海气相互作用对太平洋近赤道区大气环流平均态有重要影响; 年际尺度海气相互作用对太平洋赤道外地区大气环流平均态有重要影响。热带印度洋年际尺度、 季节内尺度海气相互作用对大气环流气候态的影响, 都存在年际变化以及年际变化正负距平不对称性。这两种尺度海气相互作用主要通过年际变化正负距平不对称性而对大气环流平均态产生影响。     

冬季北太平洋海表热通量异常和海气相互作用——基于一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分的诊断分析

利用一个全球海气耦合模式长期积分所给出的资料,分析了冬季北太平洋海表湍流热通量（潜热和感热）异常及其对海表温度（SST）异常的影响,并比较了海表热通量诸分量和海洋内部的动力学过程对SST变化的相对重要性。结果表明,冬季热带外海洋上的湍流热通量是影响SST的主要因子,但在北太平洋中部海水的平流作用也不可忽视。冬季热带外海洋向大气释放的潜热和感热通量与SST倾向（而不是SST本身）之间存在着显著的相关,这同Cayan和Reynolds等利用COADS资料和NCEP资料同化模式分析的结果是一致的。模式诊断的结果支持这样一种看法：和热带海洋不同,冬季热带外海洋上的海气相互作用主要地表现为大气对海洋的强迫作用,而不是相反。模式给出的SST倾向的第一个EOF分量及其与海平面气压场的相关特征同Wallace等从观测资料分析所得到的结果是一致的;进一步的分析表明：在冬季北太平洋的大部分区域（特别是西太平洋）,大尺度大气环流异常在很大程度上决定着SST的异常,而这种决定作用正是通过它对湍流热通量的强烈影响来实现的。     

COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF VARIOUS DATA OF AIR–SEA TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCE AND ITS VARIATION ACROSS SOUTH CHINA SEA IN THE PAST 35 YEARS

Using the International Comprehensive Ocean-Atmosphere Data Set(ICOADS) and ERA-Interim data, spatial distributions of air-sea temperature difference(ASTD) in the South China Sea(SCS) for the past 35 years are compared,and variations of spatial and temporal distributions of ASTD in this region are addressed using empirical orthogonal function decomposition and wavelet analysis methods. The results indicate that both ICOADS and ERA-Interim data can reflect actual distribution characteristics of ASTD in the SCS, but values of ASTD from the ERA-Interim data are smaller than those of the ICOADS data in the same region. In addition, the ASTD characteristics from the ERA-Interim data are not obvious inshore. A seesaw-type, north-south distribution of ASTD is dominant in the SCS; i.e., a positive peak in the south is associated with a negative peak in the north in November, and a negative peak in the south is accompanied by a positive peak in the north during April and May. Interannual ASTD variations in summer or autumn are decreasing. There is a seesaw-type distribution of ASTD between Beibu Bay and most of the SCS in summer, and the center of large values is in the Nansha Islands area in autumn. The ASTD in the SCS has a strong quasi-3a oscillation period in all seasons, and a quasi-11 a period in winter and spring. The ASTD is positively correlated with the Nio3.4 index in summer and autumn but negatively correlated in spring and winter.     

Could the Recent Taal Volcano Eruption Trigger an El Ni?o and Lead to Eurasian Warming?

<正>The Taal Volcano in Luzon is one of the most active and dangerous volcanoes of the Philippines. A recent eruption occurred on 12 January 2020(Fig. 1a), and this volcano is still active with the occurrence of volcanic earthquakes. The eruption has become a deep concern worldwide, not only for its damage on local society, but also for potential hazardous consequences on the Earth’s climate and environment.     

VARIABILITY OF INTER-ANNUAL RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN INDIAN OCEAN DIPOLE AND HUAXI REGION’S AUTUMN PRECIPITATION

The moving-window correlation analysis was applied to investigate the relationship between autumn Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) events and the synchronous autumn precipitation in Huaxi region, based on the daily precipitation, sea surface temperature (SST) and atmospheric circulation data from 1960 to 2012. The correlation curves of IOD and the early modulation of Huaxi region’s autumn precipitation indicated a mutational site appeared in the 1970s. During 1960 to 1979, when the IOD was in positive phase in autumn, the circulations changed from a “W” shape to an ”M” shape at 500 hPa in Asia middle-high latitude region. Cold flux got into the Sichuan province with Northwest flow, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Western Pacific to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation increase in east Huaxi region. During 1980 to 1999, when the IOD in autumn was positive phase, the atmospheric circulation presented a “W” shape at 500 hPa, the positive anomaly of the water vapor flux transported from Bay of Bengal to Huaxi region strengthened, caused precipitation ascend in west Huaxi region. In summary, the Indian Ocean changed from cold phase to warm phase since the 1970s, caused the instability of the inter-annual relationship between the IOD and the autumn rainfall in Huaxi region.     

A COMPARATIVE ANALYSIS OF ATMOSPHERIC AND OCEANIC CONDITIONS BEFORE THE OCCURRENCE OF TWO TYPES OF EL NIO EVENTS

The atmospheric and oceanic conditions before the onset of EP El Ni?o and CP El Ni?o in nearly 30 years are compared and analyzed by using 850 hPa wind, 20℃ isotherm depth, sea surface temperature and the Wheeler and Hendon index. The results are as follows: In the western equatorial Pacific, the occurrence of the anomalously strong westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Its intensity is far stronger than that of the CP El Ni?o. Two months before the El Ni?o, the anomaly westerly winds of the EP El Ni?o have extended to the eastern Pacific region, while the westerly wind anomaly of the CP El Ni?o can only extend to the west of the dateline three months before the El Ni?o and later stay there. Unlike the EP El Ni?o, the CP El Ni?o is always associated with easterly wind anomaly in the eastern equatorial Pacific before its onset. The thermocline depth anomaly of the EP El Ni?o can significantly move eastward and deepen. In addition, we also find that the evolution of thermocline is ahead of the development of the sea surface temperature for the EP El Ni?o. The strong MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o in the western and central Pacific is earlier than that of the CP El Ni?o. Measured by the standard deviation of the zonal wind square, the intensity of MJO activity of the EP El Ni?o is significantly greater than that of the CP El Ni?o before the onset of El Ni?o.     

IMPACT OF ATMOSPHERIC LOW-FREQUENCY OSCILLATION ON THE IMMIGRATION OF NILAPARVATA LUGENS(STL) IN HUNAN AND JIANGXI PROVINCES

Various features of the atmospheric environment affect the number of migratory insects, besides their initial population. However, little is known about the impact of atmospheric low-frequency oscillation(10 to 90 days) on insect migration. A case study was conducted to ascertain the influence of low-frequency atmospheric oscillation on the immigration of brown planthopper, Nilaparvata lugens(Stl), in Hunan and Jiangxi provinces. The results showed the following:(1) The number of immigrating N. lugens from April to June of 2007 through 2016 mainly exhibited a periodic oscillation of 10 to 20 days.(2) The 10-20 d low-frequency number of immigrating N. lugens was significantly correlated with a low-frequency wind field and a geopotential height field at 850 h Pa.(3) During the peak phase of immigration, southwest or south winds served as a driving force and carried N. lugens populations northward, and when in the back of the trough and the front of the ridge, the downward airflow created a favorable condition for N. lugens to land in the study area. In conclusion, the northward migration of N. lugens was influenced by a low-frequency atmospheric circulation based on the analysis of dynamics. This study was the first research connecting atmospheric low-frequency oscillation to insect migration.     

全球贸易隐含碳变化及其影响分析

基于最新的GTAP8 (Global Trade Analysis Project）数据库,使用投入产出法,分析了2004年到2007年全球贸易变化下南北集团贸易隐含碳变化及对全球碳排放的影响。结果显示,随着发展中国家进出口规模扩张,全球贸易隐含碳流向的重心逐渐向发展中国家转移。2004年到2007年,发达国家高端设备制造业和服务业出口以及发展中国家资源、能源密集型行业及中低端制造业出口的趋势加强,该过程的生产转移导致全球碳排放增长4.15亿t,占研究时段全球贸易隐含碳增量的63%。未来发展中国家的出口隐含碳比重还将进一步提高。贸易变化带来的南北集团隐含碳流动变化对全球应对气候变化行动的影响日益突出,发达国家对此负有重要责任。     

Analysis of Atmospheric Boundary Layer Height Characteristics over the Arctic Ocean Using the Aircraft and GPS Soundings

正ERRATUM to: Atmospheric and Oceanic Science Letters, 4(2011), 124-130 On page 126 of the printed edition (Issue 2, Volume 4), Fig. 2 was a wrong figure because the contact author made mistake giving the wrong one. The corrected edition has been updated on our website. The editorial office is sincerely sorry for any     

Index to Vol.31

正AN Junling;see LI Ying et al.;(5),1221—1232AN Junling;see QU Yu et al.;(4),787-800AN Junling;see WANG Feng et al.;(6),1331-1342Ania POLOMSKA-HARLICK;see Jieshun ZHU et al.;(4),743-754Baek-Min KIM;see Seong-Joong KIM et al.;(4),863-878BAI Tao;see LI Gang et al.;(1),66-84BAO Qing;see YANG Jing et al.;(5),1147—1156BEI Naifang;     

Information for Contributors

正Journal of Meteorological Research is an international academic journal in atmospheric sciences edited and published by Acta Meteorologica Sinica Press,sponsored by the Chinese Meteorological Society.It has been acting as a bridge of academic exchange between Chinese and foreign meteorologists and aiming at introduction of the current advancements in atmospheric sciences in China.The journal columns include Articles.Note and Correspondence,and research letters.Contributions from all over the world are welcome.