A ground motion prediction equation for JMA instrumental seismic intensity for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes

The JMA (Japan Meteorological Agency) seismic intensity scale has been used in Japan as a measure of earthquake ground shaking effects since 1949. It has traditionally been assessed after an earthquake based on the judgment of JMA officials. In 1996 the scale was revised as an instrumental seismic intensity measure (I_JMA) that could be used to rapidly assess the expected damage after an earthquake without having to conduct a survey. Since its revision, Japanese researchers have developed several ground motion prediction equations (GMPEs) for I_JMA using Japanese ground motion data. In this paper, we develop a new empirical GMPE for I_JMA based on the strong motion database and functional forms used to develop similar GMPEs for peak response parameters as part of the PEER (Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center) Next Generation Attenuation (NGA) project. We consider this relationship to be valid for shallow crustal earthquakes in active tectonic regimes for moment magnitudes ( M ) ranging from 5.0 up to 7.5–8.5 (depending on fault mechanism) and rupture distances ranging from 0 to 200 km. A comparison of this GMPE with relationships developed by Japanese researchers for crustal and shallow subduction earthquakes shows relatively good agreement among all of the relationships at M 7.0 but relatively poor agreement at small magnitudes. Our GMPE predicts the highest intensities at small magnitudes, which together with research on other ground motion parameters, indicates that it provides conservative or upwardly biased estimates of I_JMA for M <5.5. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Correlation of JMA instrumental seismic intensity with strong motion parameters

The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity (I_JMA) has been used as a measure of strong shaking for many years in Japan, and it necessitates to know the correlation between the JMA seismic intensity and other strong motion indices, e.g. Peak Ground Acceleration (PGA), Peak Ground Velocity (PGV), and Spectrum Intensity (SI). In this study, two strong motion data sets were selected; in which, the first set consists of 879 three‐components non‐liquefied records selected from 13 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan, the United States, and Taiwan, and the second set consists of 17 liquefied records selected from 7 major earthquake events that occurred in Japan and the United States. The JMA seismic intensity and other ground motion indices were calculated using the selected data sets. The relationships between the JMA seismic intensity and PGA, PGV, and SI were then derived performing a two‐stage linear regression analysis. Results from the analysis show that the JMA instrumental seismic intensity shows higher correlation with SI than PGA or PGV, and it shows the highest correlation with the parameters such as the combination of PGA and SI or the product of PGA and SI. The obtained relationships are also compared with the ones obtained by other studies, which may be useful for the disaster management agencies in Japan and deployment of new SI‐sensors that monitor both PGA and SI. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Deep learning for P-wave arrival picking in earthquake early warning

Fast and accurate P-wave arrival picking significantly affects the performance of earthquake early warning(EEW)systems.Automated P-wave picking algorithms used in EEW have encountered problems of falsely picking up noise,missing P-waves and inaccurate P-wave arrival estimation.To address these issues,an automatic algorithm based on the convolution neural network(DPick)was developed,and trained with a moderate number of data sets of 17,717 accelerograms.Compared to the widely used approach of the short-term average/long-term average of signal characteristic function(STA/LTA),DPick is 1.6 times less likely to detect noise as a P-wave,and 76 times less likely to miss P-waves.In terms of estimating P-wave arrival time,when the detection task is completed within 1 s,DPick′s detection occurrence is 7.4 times that of STA/LTA in the 0.05 s error band,and 1.6 times when the error band is 0.10 s.This verified that the proposed method has the potential for wide applications in EEW.     

烈度仪用于地震预警的可靠性研究——以高雄MS6.8地震为例

以2016年2月6日我国台湾高雄M_S6.8地震中烈度仪观测网的实际记录为研究对象,通过对烈度仪台站的震相捡拾结果精度、峰值地震动衰减关系适用性、预警震级计算结果准确性等3方面的对比分析,研究了烈度仪用于地震预警时的优势和可靠性,并讨论了可能存在的问题和风险.研究结果表明:对于震中附近具有较高信噪比的烈度仪台站,采用现有震相捡拾方法即可获得较准确的震相到时信息;现有的地震动衰减关系并不完全适用于烈度仪台网,直接应用这些关系式时存在一定风险;基于密集布设的烈度仪观测台网,在较短时间即可获取大量信息,采用已有预警震级估算方法的计算结果有较高的准确性.      

A new prototype system for earthquake early warning in Taiwan

A new prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system is being developed and tested using a real-time seismographic network currently in operation in Taiwan. This system is based on the Earthworm environment which carries out integrated analysis of real-time broadband, strong-motion and short-period signals. The peak amplitude of displacement in the three seconds after the P arrival, dubbed P_d, is used for the magnitude determination. Incoming signals are processed in real time. When a large earthquake occurs, P-wave arrival times and P_d will be estimated for location and magnitude determinations for EEW purpose. In a test of 54 felt earthquakes, this system can report earthquake information in 18.8±4.1 s after the earthquake occurrence with an average difference in epicenter locations of 6.3±5.7 km, and an average difference in depths of 7.9±6.6 km from catalogues. The magnitudes approach a 1:1 relationship to the reported magnitudes with a standard deviation of 0.51. Therefore, this system can provide early warning before the arrival of S-wave for metropolitan areas located 70 km away from the epicenter. This new system is still under development and being improved, with the hope of replacing the current operational EEW system in the future.     

Relationship between geomorphological land classification and site amplification ratio based on JMA strong motion records

The relationship between the amplification ratio of earthquake ground motion and geologic conditions at Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) stations nationwide was examined to propose an estimation method of the amplification ratio that is applicable to entire Japan. The amplification ratios for the instrumental JMA intensity, as well as for the peak ground acceleration and velocity, were obtained from the station coefficients of the attenuation relationships using strong motion records measured at 77 JMA stations over a period of more than 8 years. A combined use of geomorphological land classification and subsurface geology was found to yield the best estimate of the site amplification ratio. This result suggests that these data, and hence the Digital National Land Information, which is a nationwide GIS database, may be conveniently used for the estimation of strong motion distribution over large areas in Japan.     

Earthquake magnitude estimation using the τ c and P d method for earthquake early warning systems

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems are one of the most effective ways to reduce earthquake disaster. Earthquake magnitude estimation is one of the most important and also the most difficult parts of the entire EEW system. In this paper, based on 142 earthquake events and 253 seismic records that were recorded by the KiK-net in Japan, and aftershocks of the large Wenchuan earthquake in Sichuan, we obtained earthquake magnitude estimation relationships using the τ _c and P _d methods. The standard variances of magnitude calculation of these two formulas are ±0.65 and ±0.56, respectively. The P _d value can also be used to estimate the peak ground motion of velocity, then warning information can be released to the public rapidly, according to the estimation results. In order to insure the stability and reliability of magnitude estimation results, we propose a compatibility test according to the natures of these two parameters. The reliability of the early warning information is significantly improved though this test.     

Prediction of ground motion in the Osaka sedimentary basin associated with the hypothetical Nankai earthquake

We studied the long-period ground motions in the Osaka sedimentary basin, Japan, which contains a 1- to 3-km thickness of sediments and is the site of many buildings or construction structures with long-natural period. We simulated the broadband ground motions likely to be produced by the hypothetical Nankai earthquake: the earthquake expected to give rise to the most severe long-period ground motion within the basin. For the simulation, we constructed multiscale heterogeneous source models based on the Central Disaster Management Council of Japan (CDMC) source model and adopted a hybrid computation method in which long-period motion and short-period motion are computed using a 3-D finite difference method and the stochastic Green’s function method, respectively. In computing long-period motions, we used a 3-D structure model of the crust and the Osaka sedimentary basin. The ground motions are estimated to have peak velocities of 50–90 cm/s, prolonged durations exceeding 300 s, and long predominant periods of 5–10 s in the area with great thickness of sediments. The predominant periods are in agreement with an approximate evaluation by 4 H/V _s where H and V _s are the thickness of the sediment and the average S wave velocity, respectively.     

Progress of the earthquake early warning system in Fujian, China

In this article, we systematically introduce the latest progress of the earthquake early warning (EEW) system in Fujian, China. We focus on the following key technologies and methods: continuous earthquake location and its error evaluation; magnitude estimation; reliability judgment of EEW system information; use of double-parameter principle in EEW system information release threshold; real-time estimation of seismic intensity and available time for target areas; seismic-monitoring network and data sharing platform; EEW system information release and receiving platform; software test platform; and test results statistical analysis. Based on strong ground motion data received in the mainshock of the Wenchuan earthquake, the EEW system developed by the above algorithm is simulated online, and the results show that the system can reduce earthquake hazards effectively. In addition, we analyzed four earthquake cases with magnitude greater than 5.5 processed by our EEW system since the online-testing that was started one year ago, and results indicate that our system can effectively reduce earthquake hazards and have high practical significance.     

A new approach for estimating seismic damage of buried water supply pipelines

Conventional damage prediction methods for lifeline structures are primarily based on peak ground motion measurements. However, line structures such as lifelines suffer damage that is mainly induced by the strain of the ground and therefore are likely to be vulnerable to sharp spatial changes in the ground motion. In this study, we propose a measure for evaluating the damage incurred by underground water supply pipelines based on the spatial gradient of the peak ground velocity (PGV), in an attempt to quantify the effects of the geospatial variabilities in the ground motion on pipeline damage. We investigated the spatial distribution of the damage caused to water pipelines during the Niigata‐ken Chuetsu earthquake on October 10, 2004 (Japan Meteorological Agency magnitude (M_JMA) of 6.8) and the Kobe earthquake on January 17, 1995 (M_JMA7.3) and compared the surveyed damage with the PGV distribution as well as with the gradients of the PGV calculated around the damage areas. For the Kobe earthquake, we used the PGV distribution obtained by the strong‐motion simulation performed by Matsushima and Kawase 1 . In case of the Chuetsu earthquake, we estimated the ground motion using a broadband‐frequency‐based strong‐ground‐motion simulation method based on a multiasperity source model. In both cases, we calculated the gradients of the PGV along the geographical coordinates, with the amplitude of the PGV gradient vector being employed as the damage estimator. Our results show that the distribution of damage to underground water supply pipelines exhibits a greater correlation with the gradients of the PGV than with the PGV itself. Thus, the gradient of the PGV is a useful index for preparing initial‐screening hazard maps of underground facilities. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

A predictive model for Arias intensity at multiple sites and consideration of spatial correlations

Arias intensity, I_a, has been identified as an efficient intensity measure for the estimation of earthquake‐induced losses. In this paper, a new model for the prediction of Arias intensity, which incorporates nonlinear site response through the use of the average shear‐wave velocity and a heteroskedastic variance structure, is proposed. In order to estimate the effects of ground motions on spatially‐distributed systems, it is important to take into account the spatial correlation of the intensity measure. However, existing loss‐estimation models, which use I_a as an input, do not take this aspect of the ground motion into account. Therefore, the potential to model the spatial correlation of Arias intensity is also investigated. The empirical predictive model is developed using recordings from the Pacific Earthquake Engineering Research Center Next Generation of Attenuation database whereas the model for spatial correlation makes use of the well‐recorded events from this database, that is the Northridge and Chi‐Chi earthquakes. Copyright © 2011 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Spectral parameters of ground motion in different regions: comparison of empirical models

Fourier-amplitude spectrum is one of the most important parameters describing earthquake ground motion, and it is widely used for strong ground motion prediction and seismic hazard estimation. The relationships between Fourier-acceleration spectra, earthquake magnitude and distance were analysed for different seismic regions (the Caucasus and Taiwan island) on the basis of ground motion recordings of small to moderate (3.5≤M_L≤6.5) earthquakes. It has been found that the acceleration spectra of the most significant part of the records, starting from S-wave arrival, can be modelled accurately by the Brune's “ω-squared” point-source model. Parameters of the model are found to be region-dependent. Peak ground accelerations and response spectra for condition of rock sites were calculated using stochastic simulation technique and obtained models of source spectra. The modelled ground-motion parameters are compared with those predicted by recent empirical attenuation relationship for California.     

Frequency analysis of the 2004 Sumatra-Andaman earthquake using spectral seismograms

Frequency analysis of the Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004, one of the most significant and best-recorded earthquakes, is based on spectral seismograms obtained from their broadband seismograms. The Sumatra-Andaman earthquake is found to have a wide-range frequency content of P-wave radiation during the rupturing process. On the basis of stacking spectral seismograms we distinguished four time events of the rupturing process of a total length of about 540 s. The frequency, f _max, is the highest for the first event (0.163 Hz in time interval 0–88 s), lowest for the second — which is the strongest (0.075 Hz in time interval 88–204 s). For third and fourth events frequencies are similar (0.089 and 0.082 Hz in time intervals 204–452 and 452–537 s, respectively). The frequency also shows an azimuthal dependence (±0.02 Hz). Azimuths for which the frequency, f _max, has maximum and minimum values are 203–222° and 23–42°, respectively. These observations are discussed in relation to previously published papers on this topic.     

Lessons from the 2003 Tokachi-oki, Japan, earthquake for prediction of long-period strong ground motions and sloshing damage to oil storage tanks

The 2003 Tokachi-oki earthquake (M _w 8.0) in northern Japan generated large-amplitude long-period (4–8 s) ground motions in the Yufutsu sedimentary basin, causing severe damage to seven large oil storage tanks with floating roof structures because of severe sloshing of oil. The 30,000–40,000-m³ tanks having suffered the severe damage such as fires and sinking of floating roofs experienced the sloshing with large amplitudes exceeding 3 m in which the fundamental mode was predominant. The second mode of sloshing was also excited in the 110,000-m³ tanks in which their floating roofs sank into oil, indicating that the higher modes of sloshing as well as the fundamental mode should be considered in damage prediction. The strong ground motion recordings demonstrated the earthquake dependency of predominant periods and the substantial spatial variation of the long-period shaking observed within the Yufutsu basin, meaning the necessity of source- and site-specific prediction of long-period strong ground motions. The two-dimensional numerical modeling suggested the importance of detailed structures of soft near-surface sediments as well as deep basin structure for accurate prediction of long-period strong ground motions in deep sedimentary basins.     

2013年8月新疆乌鲁木齐市5.1级地震强震动记录及特征分析

2013年8月30日乌鲁木齐市发生M_S5.1地震,乌鲁木齐烈度速报台网有32个强震动台触发获得了主震加速度记录。选取23条强震动记录进行常规处理,统计强震动记录数量随震中距分布,对比分析此次地震峰值加速度(PGA)与新疆土层加速度衰减关系;并利用强震动数据对此次地震进行定位,定位结果对应台站震中距与到时线性度较好;最后分析了典型强震动台站记录特性与建筑物震害及工程震害相关性。     

含弱渗透性覆盖层饱和砂土地震液化特性研究

针对含弱渗透性覆盖层的饱和砂土地基进行一组离心机振动台试验,并采用OpenSees对试验模型进行数值模拟。通过模型试验与数值模拟结果对比讨论OpenSees对于饱和砂土地基地震液化模拟的精度;采用水平方向的Arias强度表示传入某一位置的地震动强度,并以液化时水平方向Arias强度作为该土层的抗液化强度;采用OpenSees计算不同地震动输入时饱和砂土的反应,以此检验Arias强度作为抗液化强度的准确性。结果表明,引起饱和砂土液化所需要的地震动强度随深度增加而增加;当传入的地震强度达到砂土发生液化所需要的地震强度时,该层砂土将会发生液化。     

Seismic response analysis on the stability of running vehicles

The seismometer network of the Japanese expressway system has been enhanced since the 1995 Kobe earthquake. Using earthquake information from the instruments, the expressways are closed if the peak ground acceleration (PGA) is larger than or equal to 80cm/s². The aim of this regulation is to avoid secondary disasters, e.g. cars running into the collapsed sections. However, recent studies on earthquake damage have revealed that expressway structures are not seriously damaged under such‐level of earthquake motion. Hence, we may think of relaxing the regulation of expressway closure. But before doing this, it is necessary to examine the effects of shaking to automobiles since the drivers may encounter difficulties in controlling their vehicles and traffic accidents may occur. In this study, a vehicle was modelled with a six‐degree‐of‐freedom system and its responses were investigated with respect to PGA, peak ground velocity (PGV) and Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) seismic intensity using five ground motion records. It was observed that the response of the vehicle shows a larger amplitude for the record that has larger response spectrum in the long period range compared to other records. However, similar response amplitudes of the vehicle were observed for all the records with respect to the JMA seismic intensity. The response characteristics of the vehicle model may be very useful for decision‐making regarding the relaxation of the expressway closure under seismic motion. Copyright © 2002 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The Northridge, California, earthquake of 1994: fire ignition by strong shaking

The Northridge earthquake contributed unprecedented detail and quality of data on strong ground motion and on its effects on man-made structures. About 110 fires have been attributed directly to the effects of this earthquake. Two hypotheses for the principal causative agents leading to fire ignition were examined: differential motion and strains in the soil, and inertial forces. The fire-ignition frequency is described with respect to: (1) simple measures of strain in the soil (via density of water pipe breaks, n), (2) occurrence of severely damaged buildings (via density of red-tagged buildings, N), (3) site intensity of shaking, (I_MM), and (4) inertial forces (via peak horizontal ground velocity, v_m). It is shown that the rate of fires (per unit area) ignited by earthquake shaking can be predicted by several empirical equations of comparable accuracy and in terms of common scaling parameters of strong ground motion.     

Earthquake focal mechanisms and stress inversion in the Irpinia Region (southern Italy)

The goal of this study was to estimate the stress field acting in the Irpinia Region, an area of southern Italy that has been struck in the past by destructive earthquakes and that is now characterized by low to moderate seismicity. The dataset are records of 2,352 aftershocks following the last strong event: the 23 November 1980 earthquake (M 6.9). The earthquakes were recorded at seven seismic stations, on average, and have been located using a three-dimensional (3D) P-wave velocity model and a probabilistic, non-linear, global search technique. The use of a 3D velocity model yielded a more stable estimation of take-off angles, a crucial parameter for focal mechanism computation. The earthquake focal mechanisms were computed from the P-wave first-motion polarity data using the FPFIT algorithm. Fault plane solutions show mostly normal component faulting (pure normal fault and normal fault with a strike-slip component). Only some fault plane solutions show strike-slip and reverse faulting. The stress field is estimated using the method proposed by Michael (J Geophys Res 92:357–368, 1987a) by inverting selected focal mechanisms, and the results show that the Irpinia Region is subjected to a NE–SW extension with horizontal σ ₃ (plunge 0°, trend 230°) and subvertical σ ₁ (plunge 80°, trend 320°), in agreement with the results derived from other stress indicators.     

Estimating the size of an earthquake using short-period seismograms of the first three seconds: A simulated experiment using the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence

Most of the present earthquake early warning systems are based on broadband or strong motion recordings. How-ever, the short-period instruments are still deployed. It is well-known that short-period recordings have saturation problems for large earthquakes when estimating the size of an earthquake. Thus, it is necessary to make clear the magnitude at which saturation starts to occur for the commonly used τc and Pd measurements, respectively. To investigate the possibility of using short-period seismic recordings for earthquake early warning, we conducted a simulated experiment using the strong motion data of the 1999 Chi-Chi earthquake sequence including its main shock and 31 aftershocks, with magnitude span from 4 to 7.6. The strong motion acceleration recordings were convolved with the instrument response of short-period seismographs in northern China to simulate short-period seismograms. Parameters τc and Pd from the first-three-second seismograms were calculated for the simulated short-period recordings and compared with that obtained by the original strong ground motion recordings. The result showed that to some extent, short-period recordings can be used for threshold earthquake early warning, while the magnitude saturation of Pd estimation can be up to 6.5, better than τc estimation.